Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

AUD/USD rising inside minor impulse wave (iii)
2/2/2017

AUD/USD rising inside minor impulse wave (iii)
Next buy target – 0.7750
AUD/USD continues to rise sharply inside the minor impulse wave (iii), which started earlier from the key support level 0.7520 (previous monthly high from December and the buy target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The active minor impulse wave (iii) belongs to the sharp impulse wave 3 from the end of December.

AUD/USD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the major resistance level 0.7750 (which reversed previous sharp impulse waves (v) and (c), as can be seen below). The pair is likely to correct down after reaching the resistance level 0.7750.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12317

 

[riki143]

AUD/JPY reversed from support area
2/2/2017

AUD/JPY reversed from support area
Next buy target - 87.10
AUD/JPY continues to rise after the recent upward reversal from the support area lying between the key support level 85.50 (which also reversed the previous wave A) and the 50% Fibonacci correction level of the previous upward impulse from December. The upward reversal from this support area completed the C-wave of the previous ABC correction (2) from January.

AUD/JPY is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the strong resistance level 87.10 (which reversed earlier waves ?, (1) and B). Buy stop-loss can be placed below the aforementioned support level 85.50.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12318

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: yen's surf
2/3/2017

On the USD/JPY daily chart, the fourth attempt of "bears" to test the support at 112.5 has failed. We wait for the development of consolidation in the range 112.5-115.35. A further course of events will depend on whether bulls manage to push the quotes beyond the downward trading channel or not.

On the USD/JPY hourly chart, Wolf waves are formed. A return of quotes to the highs of bar ?3 will create prerequisites for the opening of the long positions with the target in the convergence zone located at 114.4-114.5.

Recommendation: BUY 113.4 SL 112.85 TP1 114.4 TP2 115.4.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12321

 

[riki143]

Silver is poised to move southwards
2/3/2017

On the daily graph of silver, bulls are trying to settle above the upper boundary of the descending medium-term trading channel. If they fail to do so, the "bearish" trend will be restored. The first sign of buyers' weakness will be evident if prices fall below the support located at $17.295. This can lead to the activation of the "Shark" pattern with $15 target

On the hourly chart of silver, the "Shark" pattern has been activated with $17 target. The retest of the support located at 17.295 will allow traders to open short positions.

Recommendations: SELL $17,295 SL $17,485 TP1 $117 TP2 $15,85.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12322

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for February 3
2/3/2017

The yen and Japanese 10-year yields skidded after the Bank of Japan committed itself to buying an unlimited number of bonds at a fixed rate. USD/JPY jumped to 113.07 on the session struggling to erase its weekly losses.

EUR/USD skipped some points having slid to 1.0750. The yield on 10-year US Treasury note ticked up to 2.487 from yesterday’s low at 2.432. Today’s focus will on the US non-farm payrolls and labor data coming at 15:30 MT time. Markets are expecting a solid result. Another event that might grasp the traders’ attention is Chicago’s Fed president Evans speech (he is a vote in Federal Committee this year) that should give the market some clues on the Fed’s path of the rate hikes.

GBP/USD slumped below 1.2520 from 1.2705 after the BoE meeting and Inflation Report. The central bank upgraded its growth forecasts for this year from 1.4% to 2%, but lowered its medium-term inflation forecasts. Carney’s press conference showed less hawkishness and resulted in the market’s disappointment. It seems that the BoE senior officials are more preoccupied with the country’s growth and unemployment rates rather than with looming heightened inflation rates. It was a really busy day for the pound. The UK Government published its White paper on Brexit. Today we will be waiting for the UK services PMI ahead of the major US labor market reports.

Aussie spiked to 0.7695 overnight due to the record trade surplus and surging commodity prices. NZD/USD was trading near the 0.7275 level without any significant troughs and swings.

USD/CAD advanced to 1.3030 in the course of the Asian session despite the uplift in oil prices. Brent oil futures rose to $56.85 on the investors’ wary that the US may introduce new sanctions on multiple Iranian entities after Iran’s missile test.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12323

 

[riki143]

NFP preview from major banks
2/3/2017

In case you decide to go with banks' guts, there are their forecasts for the nonfarm payrolls headline, the US unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings print (all are taken from eFX plus news). And our sage counsel will be following: trust everyone, but always cut the cards.

Banks Nonfarm payrolls Unemployment rate Average hourly earnings
Consensus forecast +170K 4.7% 0.3%
Goldman Sachs +200K 4.6% 0.3%
Barclays +175K 4.6% 0.3%
BofA Merrill +160K 4.7% -
SEB +175K 4.7% 0.3%
Nomura +205K 4.6% 0.3%
Credit Agricole +175K 4.7% -
CIBC +175K 4.7% -


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12324

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: euro corrected to Kijun-sen
2/3/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0720; resistance – 1.0810, 1.0900.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.0720; SL — 1.0700; TP1 — 1.0810; TP2 – 1.0900.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; all the lines of Ichimoku Indicator are horizontal; the prices are in a range of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12325

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: Dollar returned to Tenkan-sen
2/3/2017

Technical levels: support – 112.90; resistance – 113.70, 114.20.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 113.00; SL — 112.80; TP1 — 113.70; TP2 — 114.20.

Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a market is oversold; the prices are in a Tenkan-Kijun’s channel.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12327

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Friday, February 3rd
2/3/2017

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 253 985 ? + 290 561 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0783; 1.0812; 1.0840; 1.0860
Closest support levels 1.0755; 1.0733; 1.0695; 1.06669
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0755, with target points at 1.0733 and 1.0695
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0783 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0812 and 1.0840

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 2 625 ? + 2 591 ?
Closest resistance levels 113.08; 113.35; 113.55; 114.04
Closest support levels 112.51; 112.26; 111.99; 111.56
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 113.08, with target points at 113.35 and 113.55
Alternative scenario Moving below 112.51 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 112.26 and 111.99

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 1 312 ? + 644 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3031; 1.3051; 1.3094; 1.3129
Closest support levels 1.3021; 1.2994; 1.2957; 1.2927
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3031, with the target points at 1.3051 and 1.3094
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3021 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2994 and 1.2957

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12330

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls going to deliver new local high
2/3/2017

The price is consolidating in a range of the current “Rising Wedge”. Also, there’s a local “V-Top”, so the pair reached a support at 1.0745. In this case, bears are likely going to test the next support at 1.0719 – 1.0697. If a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.0815 – 1.0830.

We’ve got a “V-Top”, so the price achieved the 55 Moving Average. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards the next support at 1.0719 – 1.0703. If we see a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.0774 – 1.0795.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12331

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: uptrend waiting for bears
2/3/2017

There’s a “V-Top”, so the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.2465. Considering a possible pullback from this level, there’s an opportunity to have an upward movement towards a resistance at 1.2581 – 1.2619 later on.

The 89 Moving Average acted as a support, so the price is consolidating. In this case, bears are likely going to test the uptrend, which could be a departure point for a local upward correction.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12332

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish "Three Methods"
2/3/2017

We’ve got a “Doji Star”, which has been confirmed, so bears are likely going to test the lower “Window” and the 55 Moving Average. If any bullish pattern arrives later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement.

There’s a “Hanging Man” at the last high. Also, we’ve got a bearish “Three Methods” pattern, so the market is likely going to continue falling down. In this case, we should keep an eye on the lower “Window” as a possible intraday target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12333

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls going to test Moving Average
2/3/2017

https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/12334/0302usdjpyH4.png[IMG]

We’ve got a “Hammer”, an “Engulfing” and a “Tweezers”, which all have been confirmed. Also, there’s a bearish “Advance Block”, so the market is likely going to reach the 21 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, bears will probably try to test the last low once again.

[IMG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/12334/0302usdjpyH1.png

The last “Hammer” and “Inverted Hammer” have pushed the price towards the 34 Moving Average. Therefore, the price is likely going to test the next Moving Average line, which could be a departure point to another decline.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12334

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave 2 ended
2/3/2017

The price has come back under 8/8 MM Level, so wave 2 was likely ended in a form of a zigzag. Therefore, there’s an opportunity to have a bearish impulse in wave . In this case, the main intraday target is 7/8 MM Level.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave [c] has been ended near +1/8 MM Level. Considering that 8/8 MM Level has been broken, bears are likely going to deliver wave (iii) of in the short term.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12335

 

[riki143]

GBP/AUD falling inside impulse waves (3) and ③
2/3/2017

GBP/AUD falling inside impulse waves (3) and ③
Next sell target – 1.6050
GBP/AUD has been under bearish pressure following the earlier double reversal from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.6750 and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave (1) from the start of January.

GBP/AUD is expected to fall further in the active impulse wave (3) (which is a part of the long-term downward impulse ③ from January) toward the next sell target at the support level 1.6050 (which stopped the previous intermediate impulse wave (1)).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12336

 

[riki143]

EUR/AUD broke support level 1.4100
2/3/2017

EUR/AUD broke support level 1.4100
Next sell targets - 1.4000 and 1.3900
EUR/AUD continues to fall after the recent breakout of the powerful support zone surrounding the support level 1.4100, which has been steadily reversing this currency pair from the end of October, as can be seen below. The breakout of the support level 1.4100 accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3) from the end of January (which started when the pair reversed down from the resistance level 1.4300, previous sell target).

EUR/AUD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.4000 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 1.3900.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12337

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Tuesday, February 7th
2/7/2017

* Data about changes in the open interest will be available on Tuesday after 01:45 CT (Central Time) * UPDATED

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 30 344 ? + 37 294 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0763; 1.0781; 1.0797; 1.0825
Closest support levels 1.0710; 1.0691; 1.0666; 1.0637
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Short EUR/USD below 1.0710, with target points at 1.0691 and 1.0666
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0763 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0781 and 1.0797


USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 939 ? + 2 247 ?
Closest resistance levels 111.99; 112.22; 112.57; 112.82
Closest support levels 111.62; 111.36; 111.09; 110.63
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Short USD/JPY below 111.62, with target points at 111.36 and 111.09
Alternative scenario Moving above 111.99 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 112.22 and 112.57


USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest - 321 ? + 52 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3101; 1.3130; 1.3156; 1.3194
Closest support levels 1.3084; 1.3051; 1.3031; 1.3002
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3101, with the target points at 1.3130 and 1.3156
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3084 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3051 and 1.3031

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12362

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for February 7
2/7/2017

The euro fared worse than the US dollar in the course of the past sessions after French far-right candidate Marin Le Pen pledged to take France out of the EU and rebuild country’s industry. ECB President Mario Draghi had to beat back numerous rebukes from across the Atlantic on currency manipulation saying that the central bank hadn’t intervened in currency market since 2011. At the same time, he tried to assure the market that the ECB will continue its bond-purchase program to revive the economic growth of the European countries. EUR/USD fell to 1.0700 on Tuesday from its yesterday’s high located at 1.0750.

Among other currencies, the yen was the strongest performer having strengthened to 111.60 yen against the USD overnight. Earlier today, the US dollar managed to regain its bullish momentum and advanced to 111.85.

Aussie jumped to 0.7680 on the Reserve Bank of Australia rate announcement. The bank left its cash rate unchanged as it was forecasted; the Governor Lowe’s statement pictured a rather bright future for the Australian economy. Economic growth is expected to center around 3% for the next couple of years; inflation is to climb to the bank’s coveted 2% target over 2017. The bank’s Governor also noted that Chinese economy has become stronger in the second half of 2016, while the global economic picture has improved; heightened commodity prices allowed Australia to improve its terms of trade.

Kiwi spiked to 0.7375 after New Zealand’s inflation expectations data was stronger than in the previous quarter. Later today we will receive the NZ GDT price index.

USD/CAD rose above 1.3105 on the session. Brent oil futures are higher today, while on Monday they experienced their biggest one-day losses since January 18. Today’s focus will be on the Canadian trade balance data and a monthly update of the number of building permits. Upbeat releases may offer some support to the weakening loonie.

Gold surrendered some of its yesterday’s gains, having slipped to $1234.05 from its three-month high located at $1235.32.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12363

 

[riki143]

Gold: bulls gathered momentum
2/7/2017

On the daily chart of gold, the bulls accelerated their pace. The recent resistance located at $1220 per ounce has become the main support. The nearest convergence zone is located at $1249-1255.

On the hourly chart of gold, the upward trading channel has steepened; the slope increased from 18 to 38 degrees. This may lead to the rollback on the breakout of the splash in the pattern "Splash and reversal with acceleration". The target 200% ($1257 per ounce) in the AB=CD pattern is still relevant. This allows the "bulls" to count on the continuation of the uptrend.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12364

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: loonie made friends with wedges
2/7/2017

On the USD/CAD daily chart, "bulls" managed to keep the quotes within a long-term rising channel. The Wolf waves have been formed. A breakout of the 2-4 diagonal resistance near the 1.3175 mark can lead to the restoration of the "bullish" trend.

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, the expanding wedge pattern is almost formed. A rollback towards 38.2% and 23.6% levels formed from the waves 4-5 can be used for opening the long positions. A breakout of the last high at 1.3135 can lead to the continuation of the rally.

Recommendations:

BUY 1,3135 SL 1,3080 TP 1,3305,

BUY 1,3175 SL 1,3120 TP1 1,3305 TP2 1,34.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12365