Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/CAD: sell target - 1.9720
17 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/CAD broke pivotal support level 1.9900
-Next sell target - 1.9720

GBP/CAD continues to fall inside the minor (c)-wave of the active minor ABC correction 2 from last December. The active (c)-wave earlier broke the strong pivotal support level 1.9900 (which has been steadily reversing this currency pair from the start of December, as can be seen from the daily GBP/CAD chart below). The breakout of the support level 1.9900 is likely to strengthen the bearish pressure on this currency pair in the coming trading sessions.

The pair is likely to fall further in the active impulse (c)-wave toward the next sell target at the support level 1.9720 (low of the previous intermediate correction (2) from October and the forecast price for the termination for the active minor ABC correction 2).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7935

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: technical analysis
18 February 2016
Sergey Logachev

The GBP/USD pair has broken the upward trend. The price started a flat correction from the support line 1.4229. It's likely that the upward movement will go higher to a resistance area between the levels 1.4346 - 1.4408. At the same time, there’s a possibility that bears are going to come back to the market afterwards.

We’ve got the differently directed movement in a range between a resistance at 1.4346 and a support at 1.4229. It’s likely to see the market falling down towards a support area between the levels 1.4275 - 1.4229 in the short term. If the price starts rising from these levels, then it's likely that the pair will test a resistance area between the levels 1.4346 - 1.4378.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7947

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: technical analysis
18 February 2016
Sergey Logachev

The main trend on the EUR/USD pair is a still bullish. There’s the price movement in a range between the 55 Simple Moving Average and the resistance level 1.1214. In the short term we can expect a rise to a resistance area between the levels 1.1214 - 1.1245, but then the market may start a downward correction towards a support area between the levels 1.1145 - 1.1032.

The market has been slightly declining in a range since last Tuesday. It's likely that the pair will go even lower to a support area between the levels 1.1145 - 1.1032. Nevertheless, the price might go to a new upward movement afterwards to a resistance at the level 1.1194.

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7946

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/JPY: sell targets - 80.00 and 78.00
18 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/JPY reversed from resistance zone
-Next sell targets - 80.00 and 78.00

AUD/JPY recently reversed down twice from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 82.00 and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave from the end of January. The downward reversal from this resistance zone continues the active minor impulse wave (iii) – which belongs to the impulse 3 of the 3rd intermediate impulse wave (3) from last September.

AUD/JPY is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3) toward the next sell target at the round support level 80.00 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward the next support level 78.00.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7952

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/JPY: sell target - 126.00
18 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/JPY reversed from resistance level 128.00
-Next sell target - 126.00

EUR/JPY recently reversed down sharply from the resistance level 128.00 (former support level and the sell target set in our previous forecast for this currency pair, acting as resistance now – after it was broken by the previous sharp minor impulse wave (i)). The downward reversal from this resistance level completed the latest minor correction (ii) – starting the active impulse wave (iii), which belongs to the longer-term downward impulse waves 3 and (3), as can be seen below.

EUR/JPY is likely to fall to the next sell target at the support level 126.00 (which stopped the previous impulse wave (i) earlier this month).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7953

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for February 19

By Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar turned to be rather strong on Thursday despite all the Fed’s attempts to limit the upside.The greenback was supported by the labor market figures: number of unemployment claims came out below the forecast.On Friday watch the US CPI – according to the official forecast, the base index accelerated to 0.2%. The US currency has potential for more upside.

EUR/USD tests the local support at 1.1100, but we need a fix below this mark to find a reason to sell. Next strong support is seen at 1.1040 (55-week MA). Meanwhile, GBP/USD is strengthening ahead of the EU meeting results on Brussels. Will they reach an agreement? Our forecast is “yes”, but it will take a couple of months to formulate the decision. The nervousness will last and keep GBP under selling pressure. We expect the 1.3500 mark to be hit in the coming months. However, in a short term the pair could hit 1.4500 on the upbeat expectations.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7957

 

[riki143]

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https://idnfbs.com/news/kompaniya-fbs-poluchila-nagradu-luchshaya-sohrannost-sredstv-klientov-v-azii

 

[fxapex]

USDJPY has been trading a bit low and it might further go down, but at this level buyers may come in the prices may come up.

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for February 22-28

By Elizabeth Belugina

EUR/USD eased down from the 1.1375 area. The minutes of the European Central Bank’s January meeting showed that some policymakers believe that the ECB should act rather sooner than later because of the new risks to economic growth and inflation. The regulator’s president Mario Draghi also underlined the central bank’s readiness to ease policy in March. Yet, the market players don’t seem very convinced that the ECB’s efforts will work, and we see that the euro’s decline is gradual, not abrupt.

Resistance at 1.1250 will likely guard the upside. Important support is in the 1.1050/40 area (200-day MA, 55-week MA). If this support is broken, the single currency will fall to 1.0960/00 and even 1.0800.

On Monday the euro area will release flash manufacturing and services indexes. On Tuesday watch German Ifo business climate. The region’s final inflation figures will come out on Thursday, while German preliminary CPI is due on Friday.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7969

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for February 22-28

By Elizabeth Belugina

The recovery of USD/JPY stalled ahead of the psychological level of 115.00. The level of 110.00 is an important mark. Here traders will expect more action from the Bank of Japan.

Dovish FOMC meeting minutes confirmed that the market has lost faith that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates anytime soon. The pair doesn’t have much strength. It seems that further steps from the Bank of Japan are needed to bring USD/JPY above 115.00 and towards 120.00.

The pressure on Japanese central bank to ease policy further increased after data showed that the nation’s economy fell more than expected in Q4: GDP contracted by 1.4% on the annualized basis vs. 0.8% expected. These figures provoke criticism of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics”. Stronger yen is one of the reasons why Japanese economy isn’t feeling particularly good. Another reason is China’s economic slowdown.

Next week Japan will release flash manufacturing PMI on Monday and inflation figures on Friday.

The market remains concerned about the global economic slowdown. As a result, demand for the yen as a safe haven will continue. We don’t expect any action from the Bank of Japan in the coming days. With G20 meeting, which starts next Friday the situation, may be more stable. It looks like we are seeing a new range of 115.00/110.00 for USD/JPY.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7970

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

US Dollar: forecast for February 22-28

Kira Iukhtenko

Expectations for a Fed’s rate hike on the March meeting declined sharply during the past couple of weeks. Minutes released last week confirmed that the Fed has no plans for a March hike. Course for a gradual policy tightening remain in place, but the market is no longer pricing in a hike in the first half of the year.

Despite all that, the US currency remains rather resilient. USD index spent the week above the 96 figure. You may see from the weekly chart that the index pulled from the trend line. It is trying to form a bullish reversal formation these days.

We believe the potential for more USD upside is high as the divergence in policies is coming back into the limelight. Anyway, the Fed looks more hawkish than the ECB or the Bank of Japan.

Economic calendar for the new week does not include any market turning events, but you should pay special attention to core durable goods data on Thursday and the second GDP estimate on Friday. According to the advance reading, the US economy rose by 0.7% in Q4.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7971

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for February 22-28

Kira Iukhtenko

UK currency attempted to recover some ground over the past week, but failed to overcome the 1.4400 mark. UK retail sales surprised the market to the upside, but the fears of Brexit are dominating the scene. Cable fell below 1.4300 on the increased volatility.

If the compromise decision will be found, GBP/USD will get the chance to grow towards the 1.4500 mark. However, we recommend selling the pair from these levels. If there is no decision on the table, the British currency will extend the decline on the new week. Break below the 1.4230 mark will open the way for a decline to 1.4080.

Economic calendar for the new week is rather light. The only event to watch is the second estimate of the US Q4 GDP on Thursday. According to the preliminary estimates, the economy rose by 0.5% during that period.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7972

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/JPY: sell target - 155.00
23 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/JPY reached sell target 160.00
-Next sell target - 155.00

GBP/JPY continues to fall after the recent breakout of the round support level 160.00 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave (i) and which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of the support level 160.00 is expected to further accelerate the active impulse wave (iii) which belongs to impulse 3 of the intermediate (C)-wave from last November.

GBP/JPY is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves (iii), 3 and (C) toward the next sell target at the support level 155.00. Sell stop-loss can be placed at half the daily ATR above the recently broken price level 160.00.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8002

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/CAD: sell target - 1.9200
23 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/CAD falling inside primary impulse wave ③
-Next sell target - 1.9200

GBP/CAD recently fell sharply – following the earlier sharp downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 1.9720 (previous sell target set for this currency pair) 1.9900. This is the former strong support zone which has been reversing the price from last October, as can be seen from the daily GBP/CAD chart below. The latest downward reversal from this resistance zone accelerated the active primary impulse wave ③.

With the daily Momentum recently reaching new yearly lows - GBP/CAD can be expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.9200 (target price for the completion of impulse ③).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8003

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: technical analysis
23 February 2016
Sergey Logachev

The pair has a local downward trend on the four-hour chart. The price was forming a “Triangle” last couple of days and finally bears has broken this pattern. So, we have a new low for 2016. Despite of the market found a support at 1.4050, the price movement likely is going to reach this level once again. Afterwards, the price can go to a new upward movement towards a resistance area between the levels 1.4172 - 1.4227.

The market has a local downward trend on the one-hour chart. The flat was ended and there's a “Breakaway Gap” pattern. The pair reached a support at 1.4050 and started a correction from this level. It's likely that the pair will go a little bit higher to a resistance area between the levels 1.4124 - 1.4172. However, the price might go to a new downward movement afterwards to a support at 1.4050.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8000

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/JPY: sell targets - 122.00 and 121.00
24 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/JPY reached sell target 126.00
-Next sell targets - 122.00 and 121.00

EUR/JPY has been under strong bearish pressure lately – following the earlier breakout of the support zone lying between the support level 126.00 (previous sell target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair) and the lower support trendline of the wide daily down channel from last June, as can be seen below. The breakout of this support zone greatly accelerated the active impulse waves 5 and (3).

EUR/JPY is set to fall further to the next sell target at the support levels 122.00 and 121.00 (target price calculated for the completion of the active impulse wave (3)).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8023

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: sell target - 1.3800
24 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/USD reached sell target 1.4100
-Next sell target - 1.3800

GBP/USD recently fell sharply – after the earlier breakout of the support level 1.4100 (low of the previous minor impulse wave from January), which was set as the sell target for this currency pair. The breakout of the support level 1.4100 accelerated the active minor impulse wave 5, which belongs to the intermediate downward impulse wave (3) from the middle of October.

Considering the accelerating downward Momentum - GBP/USD is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves 5 and (3) toward the next sell target at the support level 1.3800 (target price for the termination of the active intermediate impulse wave (3)). Strong resistance now stands at 1.4100.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8022

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GOLD: weekly wave analysis
24 February 2016

Daily. The pair keeps forming the final wave [E] of the sloping triangle. Let’s review the internal structure of this wave at Н4.

H4. The pair is likely forming a usual zigzag (Y). Within this zigzag the pair finished the wave A and we are now witnessing the development of the corrective wave B. When the sideways wave is completed, the market’s growth will resume.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8016

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for February 25


Oil went under renewed selling pressure as Saudi Arabia ruled out any production cuts. US dollar index is recovering. Watch American durable goods and unemployment claims figures on Thursday. The forecast is rather good.

GBP/USD breached 1.4000 to the downside. The pound keeps suffering because of Brexit fears. The falling oil prices add to the bearish pressure on the British currency. The UK will publish second release of GDP for Q4. No revisions to 0.5% economic growth are expected. Fundamentals don’t offer support for sterling. The currency is oversold in the short term and there’s bullish divergence on the daily chart, but this may offer only some very short-term relief. Resistance is at 1.4000 (psychological level, look for new shorts on the pullback up here) and 1.4080 (January 21 low). On the downside below 1.3880 focus on 1.3680/55 (2001 low, March 2009 low).

EUR/USD fell to support at 1.0960/40 (support line, 50% Fibo of advance since December), where it should find some support. The single currency is also feeling negative effects of concerns that Britain will leave the EU. The loss of this support will bring the pair down to 1.0830/00. Strong resistance is at 1.1050 (200-day MA). As for USD/JPY, decline below 112.00 opens the way down towards 111.00 and 110.50.

The advance of AUD/USD stalled ahead of 200-day MA. Support is at 0.7150 (100-day MA) and 0.7100. Resistance is at 0.7240 and 0.7275. Australia will release extremely important private capital expenditure figures at 00:30 GMT. The data includes the actual investments made by Australian companies in Q4 as well as investment plans for 2016-17.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8026

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

NZD/JPY: buy targets - 76.80 and 78.00
26 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-NZD/JPY reversed from strong support zone
-Next buy targets - 76.80 and 78.00

NZD/JPY recently reversed up sharply from the strong support zone lying between the support levels 74.40 and 73.20. This support zone earlier reversed the previous waves ①, (1) and 1, as can be seen from the daily NZD/JPY chart below. The upward reversal form this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star – the middle candle of which is also the Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern – Hammer.

Given the strength of the aforementioned support zone - NZD/JPY is likely to rise further from the current levels toward the next buy targets at the resistance levels 76.80 and 78.00.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8049