Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy
- Thread starter Nigel Price
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Thanks guys, I was looking at USD/CHF myself. It looks a bit stretched, which is always good, because even if a new weekly swing doesn't develop, you often get the opportunity to get some positions on while it retraces a bit.
Right, so that's the planning for next week done, time to get some time away from the screen so we are fresh for next week!
Enjoy the weekend
GBP JPY: Not for the faint-hearted
Hi,
Just posting this one here for those who love a challenge.
Well for me anyway JPY pairs always seem a bit of challenge to trade well.
Bears put in a strong week last week and will be interesting to see if they are able to follow through.
My lines in the sand have been drawn so I'll see if this pair provides me with any opportunities next week.
I'm already short GBP USD so I won't be going in very hard or chasing this one if it runs away.
Hi,
Just posting this one here for those who love a challenge.
Well for me anyway JPY pairs always seem a bit of challenge to trade well.
Bears put in a strong week last week and will be interesting to see if they are able to follow through.
My lines in the sand have been drawn so I'll see if this pair provides me with any opportunities next week.
I'm already short GBP USD so I won't be going in very hard or chasing this one if it runs away.
Attachments
We have a similar list MK. Gbp just broke down towards the end of last week. The challenge is to pick the best gbp pair to go with. I will be looking at gbpusd (this covers the dx and gbp together) and the usdchf
Olu
AUD USD Weekly
Hi,
Just want to remind myself more than anything that the Weekly Rejection Bar
a few weeks back is still yet to be invalidated.
For this week my focus (like NP, MK, PP and Olu) will be on GBP USD, USD CHF & GBP JPY, however I'll probably just check the AUD USD on a Daily Close basis to see if bears are starting to get active.
If AUD USD were to show bearish tendencies, my preference would be to drop down to lower TF and try to catch a retest of the underside of an upsloping trendline that was broken.
This is just another reason why I really like Nigel's method. We only need to follow a few pairs throughout the week, rather than trying to keep tabs on all the currency pairs, commodities and indexes. I don't know about you all, but that allows me to bring my focus into almost laser like precision as I hunt down a trade.
Hi,
Just want to remind myself more than anything that the Weekly Rejection Bar
a few weeks back is still yet to be invalidated.
For this week my focus (like NP, MK, PP and Olu) will be on GBP USD, USD CHF & GBP JPY, however I'll probably just check the AUD USD on a Daily Close basis to see if bears are starting to get active.
If AUD USD were to show bearish tendencies, my preference would be to drop down to lower TF and try to catch a retest of the underside of an upsloping trendline that was broken.
This is just another reason why I really like Nigel's method. We only need to follow a few pairs throughout the week, rather than trying to keep tabs on all the currency pairs, commodities and indexes. I don't know about you all, but that allows me to bring my focus into almost laser like precision as I hunt down a trade.
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AUD CHF LONG First Attempt
Right, I've taken the first retest after the break of the downsloping trendline.
Again, this is from monthly analysis but last week did print a nice bullish bar that closed higher than the previous week's open.
20 pip risk, see how it pans out.
Just something I'll throw on to the radar for now.
I think I've noted the most important things on the chart
so will now watch a H4 downsloping trendline to see if price wants to move up from here.
The wicks to the upside are not that appealing but who knows, maybe they have exhausted the sell orders just above and we could get a small retrace.
Say perhaps 600 pips or so, we are talking a monthly timeframe.
Would love to see a break up then a retest and rejection of a trendline.
That would give me confidence to take a long for sure.
Right, I've taken the first retest after the break of the downsloping trendline.
Again, this is from monthly analysis but last week did print a nice bullish bar that closed higher than the previous week's open.
20 pip risk, see how it pans out.
Attachments
The weekly report pair, USD/CHF had a bit of an untidy bounce off our trendline, slipping a bit below it before moving higher.
Since then it's done very little.
Nothing we can do about that, we can only trade what the market gives us. It'll make its move sooner or later - as always if it's a move higher we should be aggressive, and if it moves lower, we go into defensive mode, tightening stops and closing out losers.
As long as you continue to do this in the market, soon you get to stage where you don't really care what way the markets move. It is a very liberating way to trade, because there is no pressure to be correct and there is no-one to blame when you are wrong. You are not beholden to the direction the market takes, something which you have no control over. You are beholden to your own decisions about your risk management, and that is something you have total control over.
Simple as that
Since then it's done very little.
Nothing we can do about that, we can only trade what the market gives us. It'll make its move sooner or later - as always if it's a move higher we should be aggressive, and if it moves lower, we go into defensive mode, tightening stops and closing out losers.
As long as you continue to do this in the market, soon you get to stage where you don't really care what way the markets move. It is a very liberating way to trade, because there is no pressure to be correct and there is no-one to blame when you are wrong. You are not beholden to the direction the market takes, something which you have no control over. You are beholden to your own decisions about your risk management, and that is something you have total control over.
Simple as that
nigel..... question from a newbie...... whether your stop is 10pips or 100 pips from
entry, are you not still risking say 2-3%? if my stop is 10 pips for example, i'll do $10 per pip
if its 100 pip stop i'll do $1.00 per pip.... whats the advantage of running tight stops??
entry, are you not still risking say 2-3%? if my stop is 10 pips for example, i'll do $10 per pip
if its 100 pip stop i'll do $1.00 per pip.... whats the advantage of running tight stops??
Hope everyone has managed to get some positions on over the course of the last few days - overall GBP/USD short and USD/CHF long have been working out quite well.
Don't sweat it if you haven't managed to get involved for whatever reason, there are opportunities presenting themselves all the time. No need to rush anything.
It's a marathon not a sprint
By the way if anyone wants me to answer any questions or take a look at a chart or whatever, don't be afraid to post.
Don't sweat it if you haven't managed to get involved for whatever reason, there are opportunities presenting themselves all the time. No need to rush anything.
It's a marathon not a sprint
By the way if anyone wants me to answer any questions or take a look at a chart or whatever, don't be afraid to post.
Hi foodaba, welcome to the thread and thanks for your question.
I don't adhere to any fixed % of own account for determining position size, I just trade whatever size I feel comfortable with based on a variety of circumstances - for example, it is early in the market move, do I have a lot of floating profit open, lots of different things. I have just become used to adjusting my risk exposure this way over time.
That's not to say that you have to do likewise, if you feel comfortable with sticking to risking a 2-3% per trade, do so. As I say in the ebook, position size is an inherently personal thing; I don't think anyone should just try to copy what someone else does, you should do what you feel comfortable with yourself. 5% drawdown might cause one man to wet himself and the next man mightn't care less. So you have to figure out what you are comfortable with yourself.
Right, that's good from a risk perspective - i.e. you have capped your risk at $100 and you will adjust the lot size to reflect that. Presumably you have a good reason on a particular trade why you would like a 100 pip stop as opposed to a 10 pip stop. Support/resistance, etc.
But what about on the reward side? Which position would you rather be holding - $1 per pip, or $10 per pip?
Another way to look at it is this - say for instance we have $100 to spend and we are going to trade $1 per pip. So we have 100 pips to "spend" or "lose". Which would be better to do - 1 attempt with a 100 pip stop, or 10 attempts at 10 pips stop each?
I would pick the latter every single time, because I know that there will be plenty of occasions when I might only have to try 3 or 4 times (30-40 pips) to get the position in the market. There will be times I will be better and times I will be worse, but overall I think I do a lot better.
Say you were running a shop and you were buying some chocolate bars to sell. You order weekly and are paying $1 per chocolate bar and selling it for $2.
I come up to you and say I can get you those exact same chocolate bars for $0.30 or $0.40, but I might not be able to get them every week. Would you give me call each time before you ordered, just to see? Of course you would!
USD CHF Missed the train, waiting for the next one.
The GBP USD trade you called last week off of the Daily Charts has been a really nice one so far. 15 pip risk / 230 pip running profit. "Thank You" doesn't quite seem enough.
I also caught the AUD CHF I posted a little time ago and these are the only 2 trades I'm in at the moment.
USD CHF left me behind yesterday as I was waiting for the new trendline to break and it just kept on going. Wasn't at charts when it broke.
Now will wait patiently to see if there is any hint of a retest.
Are you seeing anything different Nigel?
Hope everyone has managed to get some positions on over the course of the last few days - overall GBP/USD short and USD/CHF long have been working out quite well.
Don't sweat it if you haven't managed to get involved for whatever reason, there are opportunities presenting themselves all the time. No need to rush anything.
It's a marathon not a sprint
By the way if anyone wants me to answer any questions or take a look at a chart or whatever, don't be afraid to post.
The GBP USD trade you called last week off of the Daily Charts has been a really nice one so far. 15 pip risk / 230 pip running profit. "Thank You" doesn't quite seem enough.
I also caught the AUD CHF I posted a little time ago and these are the only 2 trades I'm in at the moment.
USD CHF left me behind yesterday as I was waiting for the new trendline to break and it just kept on going. Wasn't at charts when it broke.
Now will wait patiently to see if there is any hint of a retest.
Are you seeing anything different Nigel?
Attachments
The GBP USD trade you called last week off of the Daily Charts has been a really nice one so far. 15 pip risk / 230 pip running profit. "Thank You" doesn't quite seem enough.
I also caught the AUD CHF I posted a little time ago and these are the only 2 trades I'm in at the moment.
USD CHF left me behind yesterday as I was waiting for the new trendline to break and it just kept on going. Wasn't at charts when it broke.
Now will wait patiently to see if there is any hint of a retest.
Are you seeing anything different Nigel?
Thanks for your kind words VictorFX. I'll do a post maybe tomorrow on GBPUSD on how and when we might decide to take some profit. For what it's worth, I think the bears still have some legs in them yet, but as always we'll have to let the charts to the talking.
As for the CHF pairs, I don't have anything to add to your analysis - your charts look absolutely spot on to me! It's not nice missing a break when you have been waiting for it, but in my experience, it's hardly ever worthwhile chasing. There's so many good trades that pop up every week, it's better just to wait and get the right price. That's the PAST way!
The market nearly always punishes haste and almost always rewards patience.
Looks like you're getting into your groove Victor, delighted to see it
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