Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy
- Thread starter Nigel Price
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Just a reminder, the ECB rate decision and press conference is on today so just bear that in mind. Rate in 15 mins actually.
Trendlines and candles are no match for a central banker, unfortunately...
Trendlines and candles are no match for a central banker, unfortunately...
Out for a 14 pip loss - undone by a central banker again! It sometimes doesn't feel like it, but these moves even themselves out over time. I was risking 14 pips to gain a lot more. I'll gladly take that offer over and over again.
I'm not 100% sure that this opportunity is totally over yet, but I would prefer to wait and see perhaps what the next hourly close looks like. If I see signs of weakness (long wicks, bearish closes below opening price of most recent bull open) I will consider shorting again
Out for a 14 pip loss - undone by a central banker again! It sometimes doesn't feel like it, but these moves even themselves out over time. I was risking 14 pips to gain a lot more. I'll gladly take that offer over and over again.
I'm not 100% sure that this opportunity is totally over yet, but I would prefer to wait and see perhaps what the next hourly close looks like. If I see signs of weakness (long wicks, bearish closes below opening price of most recent bull open) I will consider shorting again
Same here. Just woke up to see that 30 min spike.
A few losses are to be expected as we try to establish a position especially with tight stop.
AUD USD Trade Update
Trade made it down about 50 odd pips but has retraced and taken my Break Even Stop.
Yes, would have been nice to bag a few pips and make up for 1 or even 2 of my losses early in the week on this pair, but that's trading.
If I keep closing my trades early just because I want to make up for some losses in the week perhaps all I'll succeed at doing is breaking even.
That's definitely not my goal for trading.
Need to learn how to hold on to potential runners and give them a chance while keeping my risk under control.
Trade made it down about 50 odd pips but has retraced and taken my Break Even Stop.
Yes, would have been nice to bag a few pips and make up for 1 or even 2 of my losses early in the week on this pair, but that's trading.
If I keep closing my trades early just because I want to make up for some losses in the week perhaps all I'll succeed at doing is breaking even.
That's definitely not my goal for trading.
Need to learn how to hold on to potential runners and give them a chance while keeping my risk under control.
Trade made it down about 50 odd pips but has retraced and taken my Break Even Stop.
It was an excellent entry on that trade VictorFx. The market is all over the place at the moment. Not to worry with more excellent entries like that you will have better than b/e trades
Olu
One final one before I go to bed - this daily candle on GBPUSD piqued my interest yesterday, and the bulls haven't managed to do much else of significance today. I think that this is still a valid set-up and what's more it has a nice trendline on the 1 hour chart with plenty of touches. I'll be keeping an eye on this tomorrow.
Goodnight/good morning (depending on your location)
Goodnight/good morning (depending on your location)
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One final one before I go to bed - this daily candle on GBPUSD piqued my interest yesterday, and the bulls haven't managed to do much else of significance today. I think that this is still a valid set-up and what's more it has a nice trendline on the 1 hour chart with plenty of touches. I'll be keeping an eye on this tomorrow.
Goodnight/good morning (depending on your location)
Following on from my post last night I'm in on GBPUSD now at 1.6187. Quite a good trendline break, nice and quick. Stop is at break-even now so risk is nil.
Price has already moved quite a bit today so I wouldn't be surprised if we stall around these levels or retrace. As usual, if we get back up around the underneath of the trendline I'll be looking for signs of price exhaustion and if I see any I will sell again with a tight stop.
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Think there was some news out there or something that stopped me out at b/e but price respected the trendline, right to the pip.
So am in again now, with stop at breakeven again. Let's see if we can get a bit more of a meaningful fall now.
Hopefully readers can see how by keeping your risk small and tight in this way, you open yourself up to the opportunity of creating huge positive risk v reward trades.
I have spent the day giving myself the opportunity to achieve large gains with small risk. As long as we continue to do this with some consistency, it is inevitable that we eventually come out on top.
So am in again now, with stop at breakeven again. Let's see if we can get a bit more of a meaningful fall now.
Hopefully readers can see how by keeping your risk small and tight in this way, you open yourself up to the opportunity of creating huge positive risk v reward trades.
I have spent the day giving myself the opportunity to achieve large gains with small risk. As long as we continue to do this with some consistency, it is inevitable that we eventually come out on top.
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Nice one VictorFX, I am in too. The only thing that has me a bit concerned is that we have already come quite a long way to the downside today, and the sellers might be thinking of taking some profits. You often get a drift back up to the upside throughout the US session.
That trendline now will set my bias, I am happy to sell rallies up to the underside of it, but if price can meaningfully establish itself above it, I will stand aside.
But a 15 pip risk for potentially hundreds of pips reward, you can't beat it
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Just an update to this week's PAST report, another trendline has formed on the AUDUSD pair we were looking at which might provide a trading opportunity tomorrow or perhaps early next week.
The GBPUSD trade posted yesterday/today is now nicely in profit and stop is at breakeven. The pair has put in a large daily bearish candle, closing below the open price of the most recent up candle, and hopefully this signals further declines ahead.
Have a good weekend everyone
The GBPUSD trade posted yesterday/today is now nicely in profit and stop is at breakeven. The pair has put in a large daily bearish candle, closing below the open price of the most recent up candle, and hopefully this signals further declines ahead.
Have a good weekend everyone
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USD CAD Buy
Have taken a LONG on the break of a new trendline I have marked on my 1 hour chart.
My risk is only 7 pips and will leave the Stop where it is for now.
I took a long on the break of the first trendline I posted but it turned into a false break and was stopped out.
See how this one goes.
1. Preceding Trend: Was more like a retracement consisting of only 2 Bear candles inside a longer term up trend.
2. Reversal Signal: Strong Bullish Rejection Bar 2 weeks ago. Still valid for upcoming week.
Action:
Will be looking for longs on a break of the downsloping trendline I've got marked or any new trendline that forms throughout the week.
Any thoughts, critiques always welcome as I'm new kid on the block.
Have taken a LONG on the break of a new trendline I have marked on my 1 hour chart.
My risk is only 7 pips and will leave the Stop where it is for now.
I took a long on the break of the first trendline I posted but it turned into a false break and was stopped out.
See how this one goes.
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GBP USD SELL Update
Hi,
After taking a few stop outs on the chin throughout this week on other pairs my one attempt at GBP USD (thanks to Nigel) really has taken off.
Now comes the hard part of having to sit on this one and see how far she goes.
Amazing to watch a 15 pip risk trade go like this. Yes, they don't happen every day but they do happen.
Hi,
After taking a few stop outs on the chin throughout this week on other pairs my one attempt at GBP USD (thanks to Nigel) really has taken off.
Now comes the hard part of having to sit on this one and see how far she goes.
Amazing to watch a 15 pip risk trade go like this. Yes, they don't happen every day but they do happen.
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Any of you esteemed gentlemen traders got any ideas for this weekend's PAST Weekly Report?
USD looks like it might be thinking of getting up off the floor next week
USD looks like it might be thinking of getting up off the floor next week
Any of you esteemed gentlemen traders got any ideas for this weekend's PAST Weekly Report?
USD looks like it might be thinking of getting up off the floor next week
I agree, USD could be one to watch for sure.
I'm going to take a spin around the weekly charts some time in the next few hours so will be happy to post up what I see and see what others are checking out.
USD CHF On The Radar
1st cab of the rank is USD CHF.
Will be watching this one early next week.
Weekly has printed a nice rejection bar after 3 bear weeks down in an area buyers have been before.
Friday's Daily Candle shows Buyers coming out to play.
Would love a retest of the 1st H4 trendline that has been broken.
Please keep in mind these are just my humble views of the market so we'll see how it goes next week.
1st cab of the rank is USD CHF.
Will be watching this one early next week.
Weekly has printed a nice rejection bar after 3 bear weeks down in an area buyers have been before.
Friday's Daily Candle shows Buyers coming out to play.
Would love a retest of the 1st H4 trendline that has been broken.
Please keep in mind these are just my humble views of the market so we'll see how it goes next week.
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