Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
i learned a lesson in spreads today at news time : / otherwise i should still be in eurnzd...

are there any brokers that offer fixed spreads or does that not exist? does it matter?

I think trading around news events as big as that today is the real wild west of trading Pips Ahoy!, I'm not sure there is much you can do. We have all been there, the spreads can go mental and the brokers seem to do pretty much whatever they want, particularly on the minor pairs.

If you aren't sure, you can always stay on the sidelines and wait for things to settle before doing anything.

I have lost count of the amount of times I have had trades that have had stops, which were set at break-even, get triggered during a huge spread on a news release, and then only for price to move promptly off in my intended direction.

It is extremely annoying, and sometimes demoralising, but it is a simple fact of life as far as trading is concerned. Rather than getting annoyed about it or trying to change it, we should just recognise that it happens and then devote our energies to devising ways of deal with it as best we can. :D
 

Olu

Master Trader
QE10000000000

Operation Trash the Dollar all going according to plan! Good luck to whoever comes after Bernanke, I can't help thinking there is going to be an almighty mess somewhere down the line!

And Yellen is even more dovish than Bernanke! :eek:

Nigel this QE business worries me. I believe the Feds are playing with the world's money system and the repercussions will be total collapse. Here in the UK the country owes over a Trillion pounds and this figure is increasing. That figure does not include personal borrowing. America cannot ever repay her debt imho. University loan debt in US is huge as well and the answer to all these concerns is to have more debt.:eek:

My intention is to trade well and convert all this electronic money into something solid so that when all this blows up those things will remain. Nigel is this worthy advice to all traders or am I just a doomsayer?

Olu
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Nigel this QE business worries me. I believe the Feds are playing with the world's money system and the repercussions will be total collapse. Here in the UK the country owes over a Trillion pounds and this figure is increasing. That figure does not include personal borrowing. America cannot ever repay her debt imho. University loan debt in US is huge as well and the answer to all these concerns is to have more debt.:eek:

My intention is to trade well and convert all this electronic money into something solid so that when all this blows up those things will remain. Nigel is this worthy advice to all traders or am I just a doomsayer?

Olu

Yes Olu, I think it's likely that the current monetary system will eventually run its course and then we will gradually shift to something different. As has happened over and over again ever since humans started trading with each other! Certainly, looking at the way things are now, particularly in the developed economies (UK, US, Japan, most of Europe), it's not hard to see why some people look at the current monetary configuration as being pretty much on its last legs!

Having said that, if you can look past the banking/finance/bond market woes, it's not difficult to be very bullish on the world economy. Some of the technological advances that are being made are truly incredible nowadays. Things like robotics, 3D printing, increasing solar energy efficiencies, the list goes on. These things, and others that we might not have thought of yet, are perfectly capable of kicking off a huge era of abundance and prosperity.

Of course there will be challenges along the way - I'm not quite sure that we have got our heads around the implications of these technologies and how they will change our lives, and politics/revolution/war are always big concerns, but overall I think the outlook is bright.

For what it's worth, and this isn't investment advice(!), I think we will have a large stock market correction at some point over the next few years, during which the debt bubble will eventually burst. There'll be a rocky few years and lots of people will lose everything and feel like the world is ending etc., etc, but that will be the buying opportunity of a lifetime, as a huge new multi-generational secular bull is born.

That's how I'm going to play it anyway! While we wait for that though, yes, I would be careful where I kept my money - Cyprus, MF Global, etc., set worrying precedents in the short term, certainly.

Doom and gloom short term, opportunity and prosperity long term - that's my outlook! :D
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
What's annoying me about the fundamentals at the moment is the amount of time we all have to sit around waiting for these meetings! As the Fed now almost completely drives the market, you can nearly write off a couple of days either side of any of their meetings, because everything just stops! I think EUR/USD was in like a 9 pip range for most of the US session today! Then there will be some big untradable volatility (with massive spreads) around the announcement and the conference tomorrow, and then we will settle into a tight range until the weekend. Awful! :mad:

This is why I think I will start taking Fed weeks off completely from now on, no point trying to trade this nonsense! This type of price action is perfect for one thing only, chopping your account to pieces!

Have a good weekend :D
 

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Olu

Master Trader
This is why I think I will start taking Fed weeks off completely from now on, no point trying to trade this nonsense! This type of price action is perfect for one thing only, chopping your account to pieces!

Have a good weekend :D
Good idea Nigel. But is it the same pattern in all the major pairs? I will have a look over the weekend. It might turn out that the strategy for these times will be PAST channel breakouts

Olu
 

Pips Ahoy!

Trader
Aug 14, 2013
19
0
22
waterloo, ontario
i will be watching usdcad this week, also eurgbp and maybe eurcad. i've gotten in the habit of placing a vertical line at the last hour of the week/signal candle. when the next week opens i move the line to the first hour of the new week. i look at it like a start line

here is usdcad weekly and usdcad h1
 

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pa_pips

Trader
Aug 25, 2013
14
0
22
South Africa
Breathing space

Would be interested on ideas regarding the merits of opening 2 positions (40 pips stop loss on each on 4H chart), then profit target of 40 pips on one of the positions. Then instead of moving stop loss to break even on remaining position (assuming target has been hit), one leave initial stop loss in place so that the overall trade is at break even should the second trade stop out for -40 pips.

My initial feeling is, that this might be worth the while as long as the ratio of break even trades are sufficiently high. If low success rate in hitting initial target then it is a double whammy in terms of costs.
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Would be interested on ideas regarding the merits of opening 2 positions (40 pips stop loss on each on 4H chart), then profit target of 40 pips on one of the positions. Then instead of moving stop loss to break even on remaining position (assuming target has been hit), one leave initial stop loss in place so that the overall trade is at break even should the second trade stop out for -40 pips.

My initial feeling is, that this might be worth the while as long as the ratio of break even trades are sufficiently high. If low success rate in hitting initial target then it is a double whammy in terms of costs.

Hi pa_pips!

Yes that could be an idea. Are you finding that a lot of your trades are getting stopped out? When you find yourself asking these questions it's usually worth looking at the data generated from your recent trading.

Ask yourself this - are the number of losses annoying you personally and emotionally, or are they in fact fundamentally threatening the success of your trading from a strict statistical point of view? I ask this question because any tweaks you implement should be different depending on how you answer it.

If you are encountering a lot of losses and it is affecting you from an emotional perspective, i.e. causing you to trade recklessly, you should lower the your position size, first and foremost. It may well be that you are encountering many losses but your trading stacks up perfectly from a statistical point of view. Remember, if your winners are large and your losers small, you can still produce outrageous profit results with a very low trade success percentage. Remember what I say in the ebook, some of the most successful hedge-fund managers have trade success percentage ratios of 5% or less. They lose 95 out of every 100 trades they take! It may well be that you are trading really well, and you are going through an inevitable dry patch and few big winners are just around the corner.

Secondly, if the answer to the above question is that the number of losers is affecting the fundamentals of your trading, you might take a number of measures that reduce the size of them or their frequency. Perhaps you need to practice a bit more in taking your trendline entries. Perhaps your stops could be a bit tighter on some trades? Have you closed trades early, only to find that if you had left them open longer they would have grown much larger?

Absolutely, the strategy you suggest above could work, no doubt. But if you are certain that you have defined the problem clearly that you are trying to solve, the solution you arrive at is likely to be more robust.

I hope that makes sense!

As always, any questions don't be afraid to ask! :D
 

pa_pips

Trader
Aug 25, 2013
14
0
22
South Africa
Absolutely, the strategy you suggest above could work, no doubt. But if you are certain that you have defined the problem clearly that you are trying to solve, the solution you arrive at is likely to be more robust.
Hi Nigel

I don't think I am running into a problem as yet. So perhaps nothing yet to solve. Thank you for your detailed reply and pointing me in a sensible direction in terms of perhaps more robust ways of addressing potential problems.

Currently, fairly happy with my results. In terms of risk free open positions I have a NzdUsd long at 0.8020 and a UsdCad short at 1.0319 (Unrealized pips of 312 at the moment). Since 26 August my realized losses amounts to -214 pips at an average of 10 pips loss per entry.
My futures account on which I trade Wall Street is doing very well. I have 2 risk free positions in both directions. A long at 14 945 and a short at 15 405. I had two 2 point losses to establish these future positions (basically due to slippage). :D
 

VictorFX

Master Trader
Sep 26, 2013
48
0
52
Queensland, Australia
Hello & Thanks to Nigel.

Hi Nigel & others following this thread.

Just wanted to say thank you ever so much Nigel for posting your little ebook about your PAST strategy on Forex Useful. :D

Read it through yesterday and am now going through the posts here after just signing up.

I really respect your level-headed approach to your trading and the market and therefore will humbly attempt to assimilate your techniques into my own trading style as I see great merit in what you've so eloquently designed.

Personally, I've now reached the stage in my own trading where I trade completely indicator free (but not consistently profitable) and your little strategy feels like it's the final piece of the puzzle. (although haven't we all heard that before) :eek:

All the best for everyone's trading and hope that in time I'll be able to both humbly learn how to become a consistently profitable trader and be a consistently positive poster here in this thread. :)
 

VictorFX

Master Trader
Sep 26, 2013
48
0
52
Queensland, Australia
USD CAD (Still looking for LONGS)

1. Preceding Trend: Was more like a retracement consisting of only 2 Bear candles inside a longer term up trend.

2. Reversal Signal: Strong Bullish Rejection Bar 2 weeks ago. Still valid for upcoming week.

Action:
Will be looking for longs on a break of the downsloping trendline I've got marked or any new trendline that forms throughout the week.

Any thoughts, critiques always welcome as I'm new kid on the block. :)
 

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pa_pips

Trader
Aug 25, 2013
14
0
22
South Africa
AudUsd - looking for shorts

Would prefer long anchor set ups, but seems there is enough room for downward movement. I like the concept of trapping price from both sides with "risk free" positions on condition that not too much ammunition is wasted in the process. Really relaxing mindset to be at the point where you could care less in which direction price moves.
 

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pa_pips

Trader
Aug 25, 2013
14
0
22
South Africa
1. Preceding Trend: Was more like a retracement consisting of only 2 Bear candles inside a longer term up trend.

2. Reversal Signal: Strong Bullish Rejection Bar 2 weeks ago. Still valid for upcoming week.

Action:
Will be looking for longs on a break of the downsloping trendline I've got marked or any new trendline that forms throughout the week.

Any thoughts, critiques always welcome as I'm new kid on the block. :)

VictorFX, I am also considering longs on UsdCad. I currently have a short position surviving more than a week at about 40 odd pips in profit.
 

pa_pips

Trader
Aug 25, 2013
14
0
22
South Africa
Wallstreet 30 Index

Herewith is an illustration of what I mean by trapping price. It is based on the condition of a pin bar or doji type trade on one side meaning that price has not yet delivered a closing candle against your previous swing position.
 

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VictorFX

Master Trader
Sep 26, 2013
48
0
52
Queensland, Australia
VictorFX, I am also considering longs on UsdCad. I currently have a short position surviving more than a week at about 40 odd pips in profit.

Hi PP.

While there are many things that I like about Nigel's method already; one of the major ones has to be not entering a trade until you get your break of your chosen trendline.

Therefore, unless we get a nice break of a downsloping trendline there will be no longs for me and on the flip side those who are short are free to let their trades run until they get some sort of reversal signal on their chosen timeframe.

IMHO, no one really can say with 100% conviction which way the market will move next week and I'll be very happy for price to show me the way. :)

Although, Daily chart shows nice support for your short so wish you well. :D