Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy
- Thread starter Nigel Price
- Start date
- Watchers 91
It doesn't do anything for me, I'd rather see it closer to the bottom of the channel & be less messy.
So it will probably rally for days now!
GBP CAD
GBPCAD seems to be following the script, now that is has broken & closed below the top channel line.
On the 1H chart it offered a great entry on the break. I had failed too many times yesterday to get a 2nd position established that I ignored it.
The yellow area is Nigel's target zone...look out below
GBPCAD seems to be following the script, now that is has broken & closed below the top channel line.
On the 1H chart it offered a great entry on the break. I had failed too many times yesterday to get a 2nd position established that I ignored it.
The yellow area is Nigel's target zone...look out below
Attachments
numbers
Some numbers you folks might be interested in.......
Looks like I'm on track any comments?....
9 trades......total pips down 76 and 1 BE avg loss per trade 8.4 pips (includes BE) Drawdown 17%..... average loss per trade 1.8%
no winner yet but lets say next trade hits 250 pips....$20PP//5,000.00
wipes out all the losses and adds about 3-3.5k to account
seems loads better than the usual 1 trade that wipes out all your wins!!??
Some numbers you folks might be interested in.......
Looks like I'm on track any comments?....
9 trades......total pips down 76 and 1 BE avg loss per trade 8.4 pips (includes BE) Drawdown 17%..... average loss per trade 1.8%
no winner yet but lets say next trade hits 250 pips....$20PP//5,000.00
wipes out all the losses and adds about 3-3.5k to account
seems loads better than the usual 1 trade that wipes out all your wins!!??
Your numbers look pretty good assuming your next trade actually is a 250 pip winner. Question, at what point are you moving your stop out to break even? It seems you have a high percentage of losses vs BE trades. My ratio of losses:BE on non/winning trades is just about even. In other words, if I have 10 non-winning trades in a row I lose about 10 pips on 5 of them and BE on 5 of them. I move my stop to BE as soon as I am green the same number of pips as my stop loss.
But yeah...cutting losses short and letting winners run is far and away the best strategy there is
But yeah...cutting losses short and letting winners run is far and away the best strategy there is
Yeah its a pain. I'm in the US too. I trade on CST. I find that trading NZD and AUD pairs after 6:30pm my time have some movement. Also a little later JPY pairs have some movement. Sometimes I'll find a setup before bed (midnight or 1am...1-2 hours before british market opens) and place limit orders across a few pairs with trendlines to break. I'll put a trailing stop in. I wake up in the morning and either lost a small amount or I have a small profit from the trailing stop or I'm nicely green and my stops haven't been hit. Also the overlap of the British market and US market in the morning is decent. There is some movement till about noon.
Hi foodaba, if it was me, I'd be concerned by the drawdown. Obviously it depends on how you define drawdown. If you mean that after the 9 trades, the account is now worth 17% less, then I would say you need to reduce the amount per pip.
If 76 pips equals 17% of the account size, that means that 100% of the account is worth 447 pips. Another few days of the same and the account is nearly all gone.
Reducing the amount per pip, reduces risk and allows the time & trades required to find your own comfort zone within the PAST method.
While PAST expects more losing trades than winning trades, Nigel's main focus is getting to break even as soon as possible, so the losing trades are not taking money out of the account.
So 45 losing trades in a row at break even would be frustrating rather than terminal.
As I said in an earlier post, I know that as I get to grips with PAST, that I will be taking trades that Nigel wouldn't touch. Remember, we are looking at the weekly or monthly charts for a reversal signal at the end of a trend & then looking at the shorter time frame to try to find a trend line break, offering a low risk entry.
I've entered trades using the daily as my long term chart as I want to be involved & the great setups just don't come along every day. Too often I'm responding to market noise & price moves against me.
Knowing that I'm not making the best trades, means that I expect to have even more losing trades, so I'm trading with less than 1% risk per trade & moving my stops as soon as is reasonable for the price action.
Yesterday, Friday, I opened 5 trades, expecting them all to move rapidly in my favour for hundreds of pips. One, rapidly got the full stop hit at 0.7% loss, one I closed out for a 0.3% loss & the other 3 moved into profit but by afternoon UK time were going sideways. I closed those out for a profit for the day as I didn't want to hold them going into the weekend.
The only trade currently open is GBPCAD which has a healthy cushion of around 200 pips, which should cope with any weekend movement or gaps.
So 45 losing trades in a row at break even would be frustrating rather than terminal.
As I said in an earlier post, I know that as I get to grips with PAST, that I will be taking trades that Nigel wouldn't touch. Remember, we are looking at the weekly or monthly charts for a reversal signal at the end of a trend & then looking at the shorter time frame to try to find a trend line break, offering a low risk entry.
I've entered trades using the daily as my long term chart as I want to be involved & the great setups just don't come along every day. Too often I'm responding to market noise & price moves against me.
Knowing that I'm not making the best trades, means that I expect to have even more losing trades, so I'm trading with less than 1% risk per trade & moving my stops as soon as is reasonable for the price action.
Yesterday, Friday, I opened 5 trades, expecting them all to move rapidly in my favour for hundreds of pips. One, rapidly got the full stop hit at 0.7% loss, one I closed out for a 0.3% loss & the other 3 moved into profit but by afternoon UK time were going sideways. I closed those out for a profit for the day as I didn't want to hold them going into the weekend.
The only trade currently open is GBPCAD which has a healthy cushion of around 200 pips, which should cope with any weekend movement or gaps.
thanks
I have been trying so many different strategies over the years . An approach
that is designed for a majority of losers is very unsettling. I have to get adjusted to this new way of thinking Every ones help is making the journey
a lot easier..... I always knew that getting to BE was really the primary goal
then money comes second.......It has been stuck in my head to let a trade breathe. I will have to find a happy medium.
I have been trying so many different strategies over the years . An approach
that is designed for a majority of losers is very unsettling. I have to get adjusted to this new way of thinking
Every ones help is making the journeya lot easier..... I always knew that getting to BE was really the primary goal
then money comes second.......It has been stuck in my head to let a trade breathe. I will have to find a happy medium.
That's the key, you have to find what works for you within the PAST method. That might take a bit of time as you learn & adapt to find the trades with the greatest potential, ultimately you might find that PAST is just not for you, but you want to be able to stay in the game long enough to make that choice.
The posts Nigel has made where he follows a trade live are the best demonstration of PAST in action. He made a series of posts this week & a few weeks back, starting on page 45 of this thread. It was AUDCAD, I have had my chart open in one window & the posts in another & followed the trade through, drawing the trend lines & trying to put myself into the trade. Obviously we now have the benefit of hindsight, but there were a number of stop outs before the trade took off & it is still going with around 500 pips profit.
The posts Nigel has made where he follows a trade live are the best demonstration of PAST in action. He made a series of posts this week & a few weeks back, starting on page 45 of this thread. It was AUDCAD, I have had my chart open in one window & the posts in another & followed the trade through, drawing the trend lines & trying to put myself into the trade. Obviously we now have the benefit of hindsight, but there were a number of stop outs before the trade took off & it is still going with around 500 pips profit.
Weekly Newsletter
Thanks Nigel for the GbpJpy idea. It appears Gbp is taking its own hit at the moment. The weekly charts against a lot of other conterparts are showng reversals. Perhaps a major downtrend in gbpxxx is starting.
Olu
Thanks Nigel for the GbpJpy idea. It appears Gbp is taking its own hit at the moment. The weekly charts against a lot of other conterparts are showng reversals. Perhaps a major downtrend in gbpxxx is starting.
Olu
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