Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy

[stuart1984]

its fantastic strategy, my one query - when we ensured a strong sell/ buy signal in Monthly/Weekly anchor chart and opened an position then i should keep open that position till some new opposite sell/buy signal to appear at anchor chart , till then i should keep in old position continue which i opened ?
or i should rather then keep open one position i should keep close open many positions whenever any trend line break ?

pls. clarify it.

Hi anukrh

Good question and I am sure Nigel will get back to you with his own answer but I thought I would throw in my own 2 cents.

What I really like about the PAST strategy and this forum is that there are only a few basic rules that should be kept to, get out as fast as you can if the market shows you are wrong/premature, tighten/remove risk and then once you have a position established, let the market do the heavy lifting and work for you. Unfortunately, for me at least this is the easy part, I could trade all day every day like this and be quite happy but it is once we are in a position that I start to feel the pressure of emotion kicking in.............

If you have been reading my posts, you will see I am also new to this strategy and trading in general so I don't yet have enough data to tell you what has worked for me best however I am happy to share with you how I am managing my open positions at the moment:

1. Because we enter with tight stops, even on a small account you can open multiple lots without risking too much of your account, I trade a small account (under £1000) and can easily open up to around 5 micro lots without risking more than 1.5% of my account equity on a trade. For me this is the most important part of the strategy, I am in this for the long run, not to make a fortune fast.

2. I am experimenting with the following ways of exiting:
- on an opposing signal on the anchor chart
- On a break of an opposing trendline
- at a set 10 times my initial risk
- Logical exit points, for example S&R levels, trendlines, channels, triangles identified on the anchor time frame
- hedging my risk by trading the opposite way

Please note that by exiting partial parts of my positions at all the above rules will never be the most lucrative way of trading. However I am a strong believer that you need to make a strategy your own and have 100% faith in your method. I am going to continue to trade the way I am until I have built a sample size of trades large enough that allows me to analyse what has worked best for me.

I hope this helps. Keep us up to date on how you are getting on.

Stuart

 

[stuart1984]

Hello everyone, and many thanks to Nigel for generously sharing this method. It seems to work really well for me. I'm trading this since april 7 with good result:
number of trades: 20
wins 4
losses 7
breakeven 9
total 263pips profit
cheers to all

Hi Sorilli

Welcome to the forum. Good results considering the market conditions recently.

Keep us all up to speed on your progress and we can all learn together.

Stuart

 

[anukrh]

thanks stuart

Nigel sir can you pls. clarify it.

1) One more question i noticed your weekly trade alerts at forexuseful.com is all for SELL orders , whether your strategy not applicable for BUY orders ?

2) If monthly anchor chart showing signal for SELL but at the same time Daily anchor chart showing signal for BUY, whom to consider for trading, currently Monthly anchor chart of EURAUD not showing any signal (its continuing down trend) but Daily anchor chart showing signal for uptrend. what to do, i am confuse ,i freshly ordered for SELL.

3) Can you pls. suggest best broker if i want to start my live account with 100$ only, from jan2014 i started trading with markets.com with 100$ investment, made profit but as per there account mgr guidance i never used STOP LOSS so everything cleanout , now in my account only 20$.
what about DUKASCOPY ! is it good? pls. give your idea on this. i want to change my broker since i felt as a new trader markets.com not guided me the importance of SL.

 

[sorilli]

thanks stuart for the kind welcome
...now watching NZDUSD on 60min chart for break of TL
...currently one open trade: CHFJPY (SL at breakeven, up 110pip)
sorilli

 

[stuart1984]

Hi Folks

Here is a video on how I go through my charts at the beginning of the week to identifyu possible trading opportunities for the week ahead:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDqqEP6kN-g

Stuart

 

[stuart1984]

Here is my GBPUSD short entry from this morning. Will try and get to BE ASAP.

clip

Stuart

 

[stuart1984]

Here is what I am waiting for on the AUDUSD:

clip

Stuart

 

[stuart1984]

And finally the NZDUSD:

clip

Stuart

 

[stuart1984]

Here is a video showing my GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD analysis looking for entry opportunities:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R3mvEtF14hc&feature=youtu.be

Stuart

 

[stuart1984]

Stopped out of GBPUSD for a loss.

 

[stuart1984]

thanks stuart for the kind welcome
...now watching NZDUSD on 60min chart for break of TL
...currently one open trade: CHFJPY (SL at breakeven, up 110pip)
sorilli

Nice Sorilli,good job. I have never traded the CHFJPY so let me know how it plays out.

Stuart

 

[stuart1984]

I have just entered short at the following levels for the following pairs. Each trade has a SL of about 20 pips. I am not keen on entering at this time of day because rarely is there enough momentum to get to BE for the Asian session however I thought it was worth a shot:

NZDUSD short @ 0.86357
AUDUSD short @ 0.93405
GBPUSD short @1.68169

Happy trading everyone.

Stuart

 

[stuart1984]

Update on the three entries above on NZDUSD,AUDUSD and GBPUSD:

Price has begun to move in my favour and has broken down through the more significant trendlines that I highlighted in my charts in my posts this morning. I don't feel it has yet moved far enough to move to BE and so I will have to leave the trades with a portion of risk during the night.

I update in the morning.

Stuart

 

[stuart1984]

Hi Guys

Quick update video on yesterdays trades and also covering the EURAUD where i have taken part of my position off for a profit of 170 pips.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PcfUlwMLrSQ&feature=youtu.be

Hope this is helpful

Stuart

 

[anukrh]

Nigel sir can you pls. clarify it.

1) One more question i noticed your weekly trade alerts at forexuseful.com is all for SELL orders , whether your strategy not applicable for BUY orders ?

2) If monthly anchor chart showing signal for SELL but at the same time Daily anchor chart showing signal for BUY, whom to consider for trading, currently Monthly anchor chart of EURAUD not showing any signal (its continuing down trend) but Daily anchor chart showing signal for uptrend. what to do, i am confuse ,i freshly ordered for SELL.

3) Can you pls. suggest best broker if i want to start my live account with 100$ only, from jan2014 i started trading with markets.com with 100$ investment, made profit but as per there account mgr guidance i never used STOP LOSS so everything cleanout , now in my account only 20$.
what about DUKASCOPY ! is it good? pls. give your idea on this. i want to change my broker since i felt as a new trader markets.com not guided me the importance of SL.

 

[anukrh]

Nigel sir when you will be online and reply my queries ?

 

[stuart1984]

Hi Folks

Yesterday was a mixed day for me. I was away from the markets most of the day and so did not get a chance to see what had happened until around the NY close last night. MY GBPUSD short was stopped out for a loss of 25 pips, I also placed an additional short EURCAD trade yesterday morning and this was also stopped out for a loss of about 22 pips. Additionally one of my other EURCAD positions was also stopped out at BE which now leaves me just with my initial EURCAD short which I got in @ 1.52169.

On the bright side, my AUDUSD and NZDUSD shorts have been playing out well. No risk left on the table, so I am looking for the market to provide further downside momentum.

EURAUD not looking great at the moment and I am glad I exited part of my position on the trednline break I discussed in yesterdays video. It is early days in the week yet but I will re-evaluate at the end of the week.

The only trade on my radar today is the GBPUSD, see chart:



Stuart

 

[anukrh]

Hi Stuart!

i think your GBPUSD also gone either BE or some loss! since sudden rise of GBP with news, my gone with loss 40 pips. its some what confusing for me when i put at order how to allow only 20/25 pips as my SL, since most times price will come back and again go further as per favourable direction.if SL tight 20/25 then most order closing with loss. can you give your idea on this.

 

[stuart1984]

Hi Stuart!

i think your GBPUSD also gone either BE or some loss! since sudden rise of GBP with news, my gone with loss 40 pips. its some what confusing for me when i put at order how to allow only 20/25 pips as my SL, since most times price will come back and again go further as per favourable direction.if SL tight 20/25 then most order closing with loss. can you give your idea on this.

Hi anukrh

I never entered the GBPUSD because price did not break the rising orange trendline shown in the chart in my previous post.

You raise a good point regarding the tight stop losses. The idea behind this strategy is that we take a trade on the break of a pre-determined trendline with the stop loss at a logical level (above a swing) or just above the trendline itself if it makes sense to do so. This is something that you will begin to get a feel for over time. If the trendline break provides the momentum in the direction we are looking for, we very quickly try and get to BE asap. I usually move to BE as soon as price moves in my favour an equal distance to what my initial risk was.

The next point is that with this strategy you have to be prepared to take a lot of losses and break even trades. It has not yet happened to me but I can easily see this strategy giving you 10-15 losses or even more in a row. You need to ask yourself if you are comfortable with this. If you are not, then you need to consider trading with a different style/strategy.

We accept all these small losses and BE trades because when we get a trade that moves in our direction quickly and our risk is off the table, we are in a position where all that can happen is a positive result. I have already experienced numerous times, even after only trading this strategy for a few months, my small losses completely wiped out with massive profits from the trades that do work. Keep this in mind at all times, the losses you experience are your business costs for establish your positions in the market. Any business has expenses, these are yours.

I noted that in a previous post you were looking for a new broker to open an account with $100. I honestly believe that you might be better off trading a demo for a while until you get the basics of the strategy learned through screen time and experience. Trading with an account of $100 is going to make it very hard to trade with an appropriate percentage of your overall account. Save up a little money and after you have traded a demo with positive results for a few months, consider opening an account with $300-$500 dollars. This will allow you to trade this strategy without over leveraging your account.

Lastly, As I think you have already learned the hard way, don't trade without a stop loss ever, especially in a strategy like this one where we are looking for accurate entry points into the big moves.

I hope this helps anukrh.

Happy trading

Stuart

 

[anukrh]

Thanks Stuart!

Can you give clearity abt. below point, Nigel sir still not replied my queries!

If monthly anchor chart showing signal for SELL but at the same time Daily anchor chart showing signal for BUY, whom to consider for trading !
as i mentioned previously same thing i order EURAUD short and met with loss.