Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy

[stuart1984]

Thanks Stuart!

Can you give clearity abt. below point, Nigel sir still not replied my queries!

If monthly anchor chart showing signal for SELL but at the same time Daily anchor chart showing signal for BUY, whom to consider for trading, currently Monthly anchor chart of EURAUD not showing any signal (its continuing down trend) but Daily anchor chart showing signal for uptrend. what to do, i am confuse ,i freshly ordered for SELL.

Hi Anukrh

I am sure Nigel will get back to you in due course, I gather he is rather a busy man.

Once again, let me highlight that I am myself a beginner and therefore please take everything I say with a level of caution, I can only tell you about my experience so far and I hope that it helps.

Generally speaking, most trading literature says that you should give more weight to longer term charts, and therefore the simple answer to your question would be, stick with what the monthly chart is telling you until it tells you something different. The reason for this logic is that a monthly candle represents much more data than a daily candle and is a representation of the mood of the market over the period of a month rather than just 1 day. Therefore, that information should be a better indication of what the sentiment of the market is.

All that being said, the monthly chart will be slow to react to changing conditions and therefore you will have to accept that you will never get the complete move.

Unfortunately, any strategy that utilises multiple time frame analysis will be subject to conflicting signals across the time frames from time to time. It is just part of the nature of the beast. Trading is not easy, there are so many variables to consider it can sometimes feel overwhelming. I think the best and simplest approach would be to stick to using the time frame that gave you the initial signal and watching that time frame for your exists. Of course another option would be to take partial profits if you get a conflicting signal from a lower time frame.

You will need to spend some time figuring out what works best for you. We are all different and no 2 people will trade in exactly the same way.

Hope this helps.

Stuart

 

[anukrh]

Very thanks Stuart

 

[stuart1984]

Good morning PAST traders. Hope everyone had a good weekend. I am not looking to trade any new pairs this week, I am on holiday and will only be monitoring my trades very loosely. I did manage to get a GBPUSD short trade in on Thursday evening last week. Here is a chart showing my entry, SL is now at BE:



I will also be monitoring my positions on EURAUD, EURCAD, NZDUSD and AUDUSD.

My posts will be few and far between this week so good luck and happy trading.

Stuart

 

[anukrh]

Nigel Sir when you will online and reply my queries ?????///////
Pls. reply.

 

[stuart1984]

Good morning PAST traders, quick update for you:

I was stopped out of my GBPUSD short at BE. Have not had a chance to reenter as have not been at my computer much. Still short NZDUSD, AUDUSD and wil see how these play out over the rest of the week.

My remaining EURAUD short is still open and has not moved that much over the last few days so I am just checking the daily chart at the close of each day to look for clues as to what it may do now.

I closed a 3rd of my EURCAD position last night with a profit of 430 pips which was about 1:17 risk v reward on this trade. I closed this 3rd of my position due to the daily Bullish pinbar yesterday which printed at key support. See chart below for details of how I plan to manage the rest of the trade (my bias is still lower but I think we might now be in for a bit of a retracement):

This is the daily chart:



Happy trading

Stuart

 

[anukrh]

Nigel sir can you pls. clarify it.

1) One more question i noticed your weekly trade alerts at forexuseful.com is all for SELL orders , whether your strategy not applicable for BUY orders ?

2) If monthly anchor chart showing signal for SELL but at the same time Daily anchor chart showing signal for BUY, whom to consider for trading, currently Monthly anchor chart of EURAUD not showing any signal (its continuing down trend) but Daily anchor chart showing signal for uptrend. what to do, i am confuse ,i ordered for SELL and later it gone for loss.

3) Can you pls. suggest best broker if i want to start my live account with 100$ only, from jan2014 i started trading with markets.com with 100$ investment, made profit but as per there account mgr guidance i never used STOP LOSS so everything cleanout , now in my account only 20$.
what about DUKASCOPY ! is it good? pls. give your idea on this. i want to change my broker since i felt as a new trader markets.com not guided me the importance of SL.

4) One more query - Once trend line break / retest i need to enter when that particular candle close which retested/broken the trend line or when ?

 

[anukrh]

Hi Stuart1984

can you give your idea about below point :

when to enter trade :::: Once trend line break / retest i need to enter when that particular candle close which retested/broken the trend line or when ?

 

[stuart1984]

Hi Stuart1984

can you give your idea about below point :

when to enter trade :::: Once trend line break / retest i need to enter when that particular candle close which retested/broken the trend line or when ?

Hi Anukrh

I asked the same question to Nigel a few weeks ago and he replied in this forum. You should find the post after page 100. Not sure exactly where it is but I don't have the time to go back and check.

I will tell you what I now do. I don't always wait for the candle to close, I want to take advantage of the initial burst of momentum when a well respected trendline breaks. To do that, sometimes I will enter during the candle rather than waiting for it to close. The way I see it, our trendlines are lines in the sand, above we are bullish, below we are bearish, this allows us to define risk easily and set a tight stop, think of the following equation:

If (ABC happens).........(XYZ) should happen. If not, get out!!!!!

To put this in context of a PAST trade, If price breaks our trendline, price SHOULD continue in the intended direction quickly. If it does not, get out, the market is telling you it is not yet ready. Accept your loss or BE trade and look for the next opportunity.

If your risk is well defined before you take the trade, I don' think it is necessary to wait for the candle to close. Everyone is different and it will all depend on your own personality and tolerance for risk and ability to take multiple losses without it affecting your disciplined trading decisions.

Hope this helps.

Stuart

 

[stuart1984]

Hey folks

Here is my trading log since starting the PAST strategy on 17th March this year. Extremely pleased with how this strategy is working for me.

I will post some charts a bit later with what I am looking for in the week ahead.

Stuart

 

[stuart1984]

Good evening everyone. I was out of the markets most of last week and I'm eager to kick-start the new month. I have nit identified much on the weekly time frame but the monthly charts have shown 2 strong candidates for the coming weeks.

First up is the EURUSD monthly chart:



EURUSD H4:



Next up is the AUDNZD Monthly:



AUDNZD H1:



I think that both of these setups might provide opportunity in the coming sessions, lets wait for price action to confirm our suspicions and trade the breaks/retests without hesitation ensuring our risk is tight and covered quickly.

I also see opportunity n GBPJPY but have not had time to do a chart yet, will try and get t up tomorrow.

I still have short trades on AUDUSD, NZDUSD, EURAUD and EURCAD. I will post some charts over the next few days with any developments on these trades.

Happy trading everyone, hope May was a profitable month for all.

Stuart

 

[sorilli]

Hi Stuart,
thanks for posting your charts. It helps me a lot to compare them with my own analysis.
May wasnt too good for me but I've still got two runnning trades with +100pip open profit - NZDUSD and CHFJPY. I'm not going to exit those trades before the high of the last strong bear bar in the weekly anchor chart is broken.
Interestingly, my results are similar to yours
wins 18%
losses 33%
breakeven 49%
trades: 27
total win: 214pip profit
The method requires a bit of patience but I'm going to stick to it.

Cheeers, and have a good week

 

[stuart1984]

Hi Stuart,
thanks for posting your charts. It helps me a lot to compare them with my own analysis.
May wasnt too good for me but I've still got two runnning trades with +100pip open profit - NZDUSD and CHFJPY. I'm not going to exit those trades before the high of the last strong bear bar in the weekly anchor chart is broken.
Interestingly, my results are similar to yours
wins 18%
losses 33%
breakeven 49%
trades: 27
total win: 214pip profit
The method requires a bit of patience but I'm going to stick to it.

Cheeers, and have a good week

Hi Sorilli

No problem, I like to post my charts, I find it useful for my own learning. Your results look quite good. Personally, I am currently looking to keep my actual losses below 50%, If I can do that, and make the most of the winners, I think this will continue to be profitable for me.

Stuart

 

[stuart1984]

Hi PAST traders

Quick update. I entered short EURUSD this morning on the break of an H1 trendline. Since annotating my chart I have now moved to BE for the Asian Session. Time will tell if this position will survive and grow into something much bigger.



My AUDUSD and NZDUSD shorts continued to do well today and so I will be holding them until I see evidence to take profits.

Thanks

Stuart

 

[anukrh]

Thanks Stuart for clearity!

 

[stuart1984]

Morning guys

I have just entered long AUDNZD on an H1 trendline break. I see alot of upside potential with this trade so fingers crossed it moves in my direction and I can get my risk of the table quickly.



Stuart

 

[sorilli]

Hi Stuart,
AUDNZD is not on my radar, so I missed this one.
I got my entry in EURGBP after a nice bullish engulf in the anchor (daily) chart, entry at break of TL in 15min chart:

 

[sorilli]

...stopped out of EURGBP, 15pip loss

 

[sorilli]

..stopped out of CHFJPY - 80pip profit

 

[blackcat]

Hi all,
i'm trading with this strategy too from the start of this month. For now:

Close at BE -> EURUSD 2/06/2014 open SELL @1.36086
Open -> AUDNZD 3/6/2014 open BUY @1.09639 (on H1 break as stuart1984) sl @1.09287

Hope AUDNZD can change direction

 

[sorilli]

Hi blackcat, and welcome to the forum.
PAST method looks promising to me - I'm trading it for 2 months now and its profitable so far (see post #1211). I have to admit though that sometimes it is a bit difficult to wait for a setup to develop, and also to accept the low win rate.