I think the main point to remember is that everyone has their own style and their own way of entering the market.
A market that looks overstretched to Mr A can just look very strong when viewed through Mr B's eyes.
On the occasions that the market snaps back, Mr A, who saw it as overstretched, is very happy with himself and pats himself on the back for having such remarkable market insight. Mr B is left nursing his losses.
On another occasion, despite the apparently stretched conditions, the market just continues straight on without stopping to take a breath. Suddenly Mr B is looking very clever and Mr A is kicking himself because he missed out on a great trading opportunity.
The same thing can be said for trading news announcements. Some people avoid them like the plague, saying that to trade them is akin to gambling. Others take the view that some will go for you and some will go against you and over time it will all even itself out.
The criteria that you use to enter the market are not important. What is important is that when you are wrong, you get out quick. And when you are right, you exploit the opportunity to the full.
Say for instance you make a bet on the market direction after a particular news announcement. You accept that your odds of being correct are 50 50, or evens. That's just a gamble, right? No point in doing that?
Well what if on the occasions that your guess is correct you make an average of 100 pips, but on the occasions you are wrong you lose 75 pips? Would you be trading then?
Of course you would, all day long.
People can get preoccupied with trying to identify a perfect set-up or being correct as much as possible, and in doing so lose sight of the bigger picture. It's not about the exact price that you place your order, it's what you do afterwards that's important.
