Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy

[Olu]

Hi Everyone,

Usually I like to stick to the weekly charts for my larger anchor timeframe analysis. The reason for this is quite simple - weekly trends can last a long time. Also it means that I can do my analysis at the weekend and then just concentrate on one or two charts all week, without jumping around different instruments, looking for a trade. I find that I sometimes end up taking trades just for the sake of it when I do that.


However, every now and again I will take a look at the daily charts during the week, just to see if there are any intraday set-ups that I could trade using the PAST principles. These daily turning points can end up being quite profitable sometimes too.

I noticed that EUR/USD was looking quite interesting today - it looks like it is about to finish the day with a long wick potential reversal candle. It might be worth keeping an eye on tomorrow.

All the best

Thanks Nigel. I like using the weekly chart as well as the monthly. You beat me to posting the eurusd chart. While we are waiting for the eurusd to breakdown the gbpusd has actually done so. Perhaps we can get a retest of the broken trendline...

Olu

 

[Nigel Price]

Thanks Nigel. I like using the weekly chart as well as the monthly. You beat me to posting the eurusd chart. While we are waiting for the eurusd to breakdown the gbpusd has actually done so. Perhaps we can get a retest of the broken trendline...

Olu

Didn't notice that one, very nice!

 

[myknees]

Just chipping in - USDJPY on the 1 hour

 

[myknees]

Didnt take it but would have been safe with a 20 pip stop moved to breakeven after a move of 20 pips - taken out for 0 after news - my observations

 

[Nigel Price]

Very very choppy moves in EUR/USD so far today. Don't be too hard on yourself if you lost a few pips trying to trade this - with end of the month flows and the FOMC later the market has been very jumpy. There is nothing we can do about it. As long as we have kept losses under control, it's been a successful day's trading

 

[Olu]

Sidelined

Till after NFP

Olu

 

[Olu]

NFP

The most eagerly awaited report has now come and gone. It was $ negative although a retracement is already going one. We will soon need to get our weekly charts out to plan next week

Olu

 

[Jakspratt]

NFP

The spikes will have 'buggered up' the charts for a bit but you are right and the monthly candles will now have closed and they might be worth having a look at over the weekend.

 

[myknees]

Any Weekly candles setting up for next week anyone ?

 

[Olu]

Any Weekly candles setting up for next week anyone ?

Building up a list as I type

I have seen the following

gbpusd (short)

usdcad (long)
nzdusd and audusd (both short)
cadjpy (short)
nzdjpy and audjpy (I think I have midded the boat(s) on these ones)

nzdcad ( I dont normally trade this one at all )

I am going to be looking at usdcad (long) and gbpusd(short) more closely this next week.

please note the folowing:
The short usdjpy idea, despite all its actions is not out of the woods yet as well
The eurusd put in a doji right at resistance and is probably worth looking at as well

 

[myknees]

Thanks - Just got the weekly newsletter - Nigel has identified EURUSD this week - Link to Nigels update was pointlessly removed by the moderators as spam !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[myknees]

Building up a list as I type

I have seen the following

gbpusd (short)

usdcad (long)
nzdusd and audusd (both short)
cadjpy (short)
nzdjpy and audjpy (I think I have midded the boat(s) on these ones)

nzdcad ( I dont normally trade this one at all )

I am going to be looking at usdcad (long) and gbpusd(short) more closely this next week.

please note the folowing:
The short usdjpy idea, despite all its actions is not out of the woods yet as well
The eurusd put in a doji right at resistance and is probably worth looking at as well

Just had a look at your list and agree with most of them - Phew!

Nigel - What do you do with so many options - Trade them all - Pick the best ones (how) - Thoughts appreciated

 

[Olu]

Just had a look at your list and agree with most of them - Phew!

Nigel - What do you do with so many options - Trade them all - Pick the best ones (how) - Thoughts appreciated

Imho think like this

How strong is the signal? (The stronger the better)
Is there a lot movement in the pair. (I will trade euraud instead of eurchf)
Do I already have a trade that involves one of the currencies (avoid overexposure)
Where is solid support or resistance (limits profitability of the signal if nearby)

Is is a major or minor pair? (prefer majors to minor)
what is the spread like (I will trade smaller spreads)

if after all the above have been considered and there are still a lot of pairs to trade take them them all if you have a big account or toss a coin to now wittle them down you have done your bit as a trader the rest is left to the markets.

Just joking about the coin toss

Olu

 

[Olu]

CadJpy

Starting to hunt the 4h timeframe for a shortlist shortlist

 

[Olu]

PAST Strategy EurUsd

Thanks for the analysis Nigel. I was looking at the eurusd myself but was trying to interprete the friday price action when I read your analysis.
If we get a turnaround here then we might be at the start of a massive downmove

Olu

 

[basilc]

"So many options" or choices.

Just had a look at your list and agree with most of them - Phew!

Nigel - What do you do with so many options - Trade them all - Pick the best ones (how) - Thoughts appreciated

Good day all,
My thoughts on myknees' dilemma about which pairs to trade. If we follow PAST strategy implicitly we should be prepared to take several 20 pip hits in order to catch the ride to our intended profit target. With that in mind I decided to avoid the Minor pairs with spreads of more than 3 pips. Admittedly, by doing this, I'm probably missing out out on many potential trades but the upside is one's trading balance is not too severely punished before one eventually succeeds in catching a winning trade.
Presently I'm +106 pips on NZDJPY after 6 attempts (120 pips) to catch the bus. And +29 pips on CADJPY after 4 failed attempts (80 pips).
However, I'm -100 pips (5 failed attempts) on USDJPY and still not in the trade yet.
Some time ago Nigel mentioned producing a video to help PAST traders hone their Entry skills and being possessed of a somewhat impulsive nature, that video cannot come soon enough for me!
For what it's worth, I don't think Olu has missed the boat on shorting NZDJPY.
My fibs extension for this pair indicates a possible fall to 68.00 which would be brilliant!
Good luck with your trading and thanks for your active interest in this forum!

 

[Olu]

Good day all,
My thoughts on myknees' dilemma about which pairs to trade. If we follow PAST strategy implicitly we should be prepared to take several 20 pip hits in order to catch the ride to our intended profit target. With that in mind I decided to avoid the Minor pairs with spreads of more than 3 pips. Admittedly, by doing this, I'm probably missing out out on many potential trades but the upside is one's trading balance is not too severely punished before one eventually succeeds in catching a winning trade.
Presently I'm +106 pips on NZDJPY after 6 attempts (120 pips) to catch the bus. And +29 pips on CADJPY after 4 failed attempts (80 pips).
However, I'm -100 pips (5 failed attempts) on USDJPY and still not in the trade yet.
Some time ago Nigel mentioned producing a video to help PAST traders hone their Entry skills and being possessed of a somewhat impulsive nature, that video cannot come soon enough for me!
For what it's worth, I don't think Olu has missed the boat on shorting NZDJPY.
My fibs extension for this pair indicates a possible fall to 68.00 which would be brilliant!
Good luck with your trading and thanks for your active interest in this forum!

Thanks for your post. And well done on the trades you listed. The usdjpy has been difficult to trade. I did make some pips from it but the longer term trade in it has eluded me so far. I believe we just need to keep to the rules and stick with it. As long as we are employ good money management we will come out on top in this business. We have the strategy already

Thanks for your comments about the nzdjpy. It is back on my list. I had another look and as you said the descent might just be starting. I commented about missing the boat because I missed a whole week's downmove on this one since the doji candle put in on the weekly chart 2 weeks ago. The whole of last week just confirmed bearishness in the pair. If you look at the weekly chart with a squint you can see a rough head and shoulder pattern (unconfirmed as yet) targetting 62! This is definitely BOJ intervention zone.

Thanks again for your post BasilC

Olu

 

[Olu]

CadJpy

We have a trend line break in the cadjpy

 

[myknees]

Thanks everyone - Excellent help.

 

[myknees]

Just bought this - Most helpful for "whittling" down and seeing how closely correlated pairs I am looking at compare with my open trades - The rest of this was removed by the moderators because I posted a link to the Correlation indicator on Forex Useful - A pointless removal in my opinion