Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy
- Thread starter Nigel Price
- Start date
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Hi folks
Looks like the EURNOK is beginning to play out. I decided to leave Fridays add on trade open over the weekend as I had only entered with 1/2 normal risk. This trade is now beginning to play out and I am at BE on both the initial entry and the 2nd entry.
GBPCHF retracing a bit but this is to be expected following last weeks drop.
Stuart
Looks like the EURNOK is beginning to play out. I decided to leave Fridays add on trade open over the weekend as I had only entered with 1/2 normal risk. This trade is now beginning to play out and I am at BE on both the initial entry and the 2nd entry.
GBPCHF retracing a bit but this is to be expected following last weeks drop.
Stuart
Hi Nigel Sir!
What can be fairly strong evidence that market is turning direction ?
pin bar/ engulfing bar etc. or some thing else ?
these evidence should appear in same anchor chart or higher time frame chart or it can be consider lower time frame too (5 /15 / 30 min etc.)
Anu
What can be fairly strong evidence that market is turning direction ?
pin bar/ engulfing bar etc. or some thing else ?
these evidence should appear in same anchor chart or higher time frame chart or it can be consider lower time frame too (5 /15 / 30 min etc.)
Anu
Good to have you on board Assassins11!
Yes, no doubt about it, you need to keep on top of money management with this strategy.
But that is true of any trading strategy, the difference is that PAST forces you to address those money management issues up front, as you go along.
What I mean by that is that with some trading strategies, particularly the high strike rate ones, you could be trading for quite a period of time, thinking that you are deploying sound money management. Then, suddenly an unexpected losing streak comes along and wipes you out.
If you have many more losing trades than winning trades, it forces you to think about your money management far quicker, and that makes your trading more sustainable for the long term.
If you find yourself wondering about how to structure your trading so that you can stay in the game long enough to survive the losing streaks, that's a really good thing. It means you are ahead of your competition, because most amateur traders only start thinking about money management after a losing trade has come along and wiped out half of their account.
As Stuart said, any questions just post
Good luck!
Hey Anu
Yes, I like long wicks and strong reversal candles, after a decent preceding trend.
I like them to develop on the long term timeframes - i.e. Daily/Weekly/Monthly.
As you say, these are evidence that the market might be at a potential turning point. Once we have an idea of what the market might be doing in the coming sessions, then we zoom in and try to get some really tight entries, using our trendlines.
All info is dealt with at length in the ebook.
Hope that helps!
Nigel
Is This Worth Watching
What do you think of this. Is it worth watching for a Long?
Sorry about the small screenshot but if you click on it it enlarges
What do you think of this. Is it worth watching for a Long?
Sorry about the small screenshot but if you click on it it enlarges
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Last edited:
Hi Halletcove
Thanks for posting your chart, it is always interesting to see someone else's take on things.
I personally wouldn't be looking to trade this set up with the PAST strategy and the reason for that is the preceding trend is in the wrong direction. In order to go long, we look for a strong downward movement prior to the signal candle.
What you are looking at is to trade a continuation of the preceding trend, by all means this may work and there are many strategies that would tell you to go long in that exact situation however it is not a PAST trade. The chart below is an example of what we are looking for:
I hope this helps, any other questions please just ask.
Happy trading
Stuart
Hi Halletcove,
Stuart provided a very thorough explanation including an example chart.
I'm wondering if perhaps you meant is that pair worth watching for a short entry? The trend for the four weeks prior to the candle to which you pointed was up (or bullish). With PAST, we are looking for a potential reversal of the preceding trend. A reversal of the uptrend immediately preceding the candle you highlighted would be a downtrend, in which case we would want to be short.
As for the candle where you drew the arrow, it looks like a formation I have heard referred to as a "Doji". These candlesticks are typically a neutral indicator. Although nothing is guaranteed, especially when it comes to trading, I wouldn't consider a Doji as an indicator of a possible reversal. Attached is a cheat sheet of Japanese candlestick formations I found a while back at BabyPips. I would highly recommend visiting that site for more information on the topic. The explanations there provide much more detail than I could.
Good Luck,
Abercrombie
Stuart provided a very thorough explanation including an example chart.
I'm wondering if perhaps you meant is that pair worth watching for a short entry? The trend for the four weeks prior to the candle to which you pointed was up (or bullish). With PAST, we are looking for a potential reversal of the preceding trend. A reversal of the uptrend immediately preceding the candle you highlighted would be a downtrend, in which case we would want to be short.
As for the candle where you drew the arrow, it looks like a formation I have heard referred to as a "Doji". These candlesticks are typically a neutral indicator. Although nothing is guaranteed, especially when it comes to trading, I wouldn't consider a Doji as an indicator of a possible reversal. Attached is a cheat sheet of Japanese candlestick formations I found a while back at BabyPips. I would highly recommend visiting that site for more information on the topic. The explanations there provide much more detail than I could.
Good Luck,
Abercrombie
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Morning Guys - hope you are all well!
Current situation on GBPCHF below.
The key rule when you are adding to an existing position -
***Never open a new position unless all positions open already have their stops set at break-even***
This is non-negotiable - it is a rule that should never be broken with PAST Trading.
When we add to a winner, we are leveraging the market's money.
When we add to a loser, we are leveraging our own money.
When we leverage the market's money, we are increasing the chances of greater gains, but keeping our risk constant and limited.
When we leverage our own money, yes, we might be increasing our chances of gains, but risk increases by the same degree. That's not what we are trying to do here - we want to increase opportunity, but keep risk controlled and limited.
Typically, in the current situation with GBP/CHF where I have a position in the market and my stop at B/E, I will not be very aggressive with adding positions. They are nice bonuses if they work out, but I certainly won't try to force a trade if market isn't playing ball with me.
Current situation on GBPCHF below.
The key rule when you are adding to an existing position -
***Never open a new position unless all positions open already have their stops set at break-even***
This is non-negotiable - it is a rule that should never be broken with PAST Trading.
When we add to a winner, we are leveraging the market's money.
When we add to a loser, we are leveraging our own money.
When we leverage the market's money, we are increasing the chances of greater gains, but keeping our risk constant and limited.
When we leverage our own money, yes, we might be increasing our chances of gains, but risk increases by the same degree. That's not what we are trying to do here - we want to increase opportunity, but keep risk controlled and limited.
Typically, in the current situation with GBP/CHF where I have a position in the market and my stop at B/E, I will not be very aggressive with adding positions. They are nice bonuses if they work out, but I certainly won't try to force a trade if market isn't playing ball with me.
Morning Les!
Thanks for taking the time to post the chart.
I think you might be coming a little bit late to the party there for a long trade.
If you look at your chart, you can see that price has been moving up already for four weeks. We want to get in right at the beginning of a move/swing, so I like to start to think about getting in right after a reversal candle of some sort.
I have marked up your chart a little to show a few examples.
Yes, as Abercrombie said, your example is probably more suited to a short than a long, given the four week preceding trend.
But remember, don't get too hung up on preceding trends, candles, trendlines etc. There is not really any definitive right or wrong. We are all simply interpreting lines on a chart - and we will always all come up with different views.
One man's screaming sell is always another man's dead-cert buy. What is important is that you construct a framework within which you can keep your losses tiny and your gains big. That's the name of the game.
Hope that helps
*Right guys, I'm meant to be on holiday here, so no more posts for me today
. See you later in the week.*Hey to all of u! Can somebody tell me what is the best strategy for NZD USD, I heard it is really popular currency pair these days. Thnx in advance!
Hello Nigel Sir!
On 28th July i taken BUY trade for EURCAD after seeing signal on weekly as well monthly chart ((PIN bar after strong down preceding trend)),
my trade gone approx +200 pips profit but since still i not saw any strong signal that trade may turn its direction its still open but now profit less down to +60 pip, my entry was - 1.45285 & now trade breakeven point is - 1.45400.
i am somewhat in toggle what to do , this pair keep falling, whether it may hit my BE point with only small profit but one side i am thinking this many days (around 15 days) i keep open this trade in hope of big profit but now what to do ?
can you give your precious guidance on this
Anu
On 28th July i taken BUY trade for EURCAD after seeing signal on weekly as well monthly chart ((PIN bar after strong down preceding trend)),
my trade gone approx +200 pips profit but since still i not saw any strong signal that trade may turn its direction its still open but now profit less down to +60 pip, my entry was - 1.45285 & now trade breakeven point is - 1.45400.
i am somewhat in toggle what to do , this pair keep falling, whether it may hit my BE point with only small profit but one side i am thinking this many days (around 15 days) i keep open this trade in hope of big profit but now what to do ?
can you give your precious guidance on this
Anu
Hi Nigel
Yes I would like to see the bulls give up about now. I have a feeling the GBP news at 10.30 may make or break this trade.
Regardless, I will be keeping my trade open for the time being.
Stuart
Hello Nigel Sir!
On 28th July i taken BUY trade for EURCAD after seeing signal on weekly as well monthly chart ((PIN bar after strong down preceding trend)),
my trade gone approx +200 pips profit but since still i not saw any strong signal that trade may turn its direction its still open but now profit less down to +60 pip, my entry was - 1.45285 & now trade breakeven point is - 1.45400.
i am somewhat in toggle what to do , this pair keep falling, whether it may hit my BE point with only small profit but one side i am thinking this many days (around 15 days) i keep open this trade in hope of big profit but now what to do ?
can you give your precious guidance on this
Anu
Morning Anu - I got up a EUR/CAD chart there and I see your predicament! Yes, after a very nice break-out, EUR/CAD has had a very difficult couple of days.
It is not that dissimilar to my GBP/CHF trade which I posted about above - there has been a retrace and now my floating profit has reduced significantly. It is not pleasant. Three choices -
1. Leave the market to decide your trade's fate - leave stop at break-even and see what happens -
Pro - you are giving the trade every chance to get back on track. The daily chart doesn't look great, but the weekly hasn't gone bad yet and the long wick on the monthly is definitely still valid. Maybe this is just a retrace?
Con - The market could continue to the downside and hits your stop - zero profit. How will saying goodbye to those 200 pips make you feel?
?2. Close out the trade right now for x pips:
Pro - you get a little relief and you manage to be pleased with yourself that you got a little profit into your account. Move onto the next trade.
Con - should that monthly long wick candle play out - you are potentially missing out on hundreds and hundreds of pips.
3. Pick a criteria that you will force you out of the trade if it happens - (for example, if price gets below those lows at 1.4560)
Pro - you might get out with a very small profit. Is that really a pro
Con - Again, nothing to say that price can't rally from here!
Only you can decide your trade's fate Anu. What you need to do is weigh up all of the options and decide on which one you can live with the best - the one that will have the least negative impact on you emotionally, should it occur. Looking at that EUR/CAD chart now, I know exactly what I would do, but there's no point me telling you what that is, you need to manage your trade according to your own trading personality, emotions etc.
But whatever you do, take comfort in this - even if this trade doesn't work out, your chart analysis and trade entry was perfect, well done. If you keep doing that, keeping your losses small, your big weekly winner will come sooner or later.
Watching floating profit fluctuate is one of the hardest things about trading. But you have done your job by getting the stop to break-even. That's your part done. After that, it's largely in the hands of the market. But if you persist, eventually the market recognises your work, and the big winner comes.
Persistence, emotional fortitude and money management!
Doesn't matter whether this one is a winner or not Anu, it's excellent trading by you. Well done, keep it up!
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