Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy
- Thread starter Nigel Price
- Start date
- Watchers 91
Hi all,
I came across a really interesting test recently which I think might be of interest to some you.
It's very simple, but the implications for your trading could be profound. Put it this way, you could learn a lot about the sustainability of your trading style by taking it and seeing how you get on.
You can find the test itself here.
It came about as a result of this study.
I wrote a blog post about it, which deals with what we can learn from it when it comes to forex risk management.
I'll monitor in here for the next couple of days - if you have any questions let me know!
(PS. I got $83.37)
I came across a really interesting test recently which I think might be of interest to some you.
It's very simple, but the implications for your trading could be profound. Put it this way, you could learn a lot about the sustainability of your trading style by taking it and seeing how you get on.
You can find the test itself here.
It came about as a result of this study.
I wrote a blog post about it, which deals with what we can learn from it when it comes to forex risk management.
I'll monitor in here for the next couple of days - if you have any questions let me know!
(PS. I got $83.37)
Final video on our January series on Risk Management guys, you can check it out below if you fancy it!
We speak about "Trader's Ruin", look at an interesting academic studies about it, and see if we can do anything to avoid it.
Enjoy, any comments welcome!
Nigel
We speak about "Trader's Ruin", look at an interesting academic studies about it, and see if we can do anything to avoid it.
Enjoy, any comments welcome!
Nigel
Hey Guys, Happy Monday!
Just to keep you in the loop - one of the pairs I'm interested in at the moment is EURGBP.
This is the monthly chart, so we have to be patient.
But the chart is showing a long wick reversal, followed by a strong reversal, followed by another long wick reversal candle.
I don't know what the political situation is going to throw up over the next couple of months, but the chart is showing signs of weakness. Could be one to keep an eye on!
Remember that any of these trades should only be taken if you are adhering to the all of the important risk management topics we've been speaking about recently.
Chart below:
Just to keep you in the loop - one of the pairs I'm interested in at the moment is EURGBP.
This is the monthly chart, so we have to be patient.
But the chart is showing a long wick reversal, followed by a strong reversal, followed by another long wick reversal candle.
I don't know what the political situation is going to throw up over the next couple of months, but the chart is showing signs of weakness. Could be one to keep an eye on!
Remember that any of these trades should only be taken if you are adhering to the all of the important risk management topics we've been speaking about recently.
Chart below:
Click for large view
I did some more thinking over the weekend - mostly about losing trades and how the mess with our heads!
I recorded the video below if you fancy checking out my thought process! Enjoy!
I recorded the video below if you fancy checking out my thought process! Enjoy!
Are there any PAST traders still out there? Nigel, bought yours and Jon's e-book and have been following you for a while but only recently found this forum. Hope you're still around! I'm going to post a blog on this forum of my PAST setups, performance and monthly profit and loss. I believe with good risk management (which is of prime importance in PAST), I can be successful. I hope others will find it useful too...if of course there are any PAST traders still around??
All the best,
Matt
All the best,
Matt
So here are forex pairs I'm watching for w/c Monday 27th January 2019.
USD/MXN
A lot of interest in this pair that I have a buy order ready to be executed as soon as the market opens. 2 weeks ago we had a hammer
or pin bar followed by another bearish candle but it looks like the bears are losing steam.
Here is the one hour chart:
A nice break on this chart and it looks like the retest has failed. My SL is 18.9506.
CHF/JPY
Another hammer on the weekly here with support at around 109.47:
This is the four hour chart. If price breaks break this trend line I will be thinking of going long:
USD/CNH
Here is the weekly chart. Looks like the trend is down. There was a rally two weeks ago but it appears the bears have pushed back:
Here is the four hour - Looks like a very good break down. I am hoping there will be a retest. If not, I will be looking for other trend breaks as price continues down. We will see...
By the way, sorry about the multiple lines on my weekly chart. My broker's charting software remembers the lines I have drawn on smaller timeframes and then puts them on the weekly but they don't appear in the right position unless I zoom in to a smaller timeframe...very strange!
You can tell I'm not using MT4. It is a popular broker though and I'm sure some of you will be able to hazard a guess - the clue is social trading network and large spreads / fees ... I like this broker for their very easy to use platform. However, I'm open to any suggestions of some decent brokers. By the way, can't use MT4 as I'm running of a Mac
.
Will keep you posted on progress. Good luck to you all!
Matt
USD/MXN
A lot of interest in this pair that I have a buy order ready to be executed as soon as the market opens. 2 weeks ago we had a hammer
or pin bar followed by another bearish candle but it looks like the bears are losing steam.
Here is the one hour chart:
A nice break on this chart and it looks like the retest has failed. My SL is 18.9506.
CHF/JPY
Another hammer on the weekly here with support at around 109.47:
This is the four hour chart. If price breaks break this trend line I will be thinking of going long:
USD/CNH
Here is the weekly chart. Looks like the trend is down. There was a rally two weeks ago but it appears the bears have pushed back:
Here is the four hour - Looks like a very good break down. I am hoping there will be a retest. If not, I will be looking for other trend breaks as price continues down. We will see...
By the way, sorry about the multiple lines on my weekly chart. My broker's charting software remembers the lines I have drawn on smaller timeframes and then puts them on the weekly but they don't appear in the right position unless I zoom in to a smaller timeframe...very strange!
You can tell I'm not using MT4. It is a popular broker though and I'm sure some of you will be able to hazard a guess - the clue is social trading network and large spreads / fees ... I like this broker for their very easy to use platform. However, I'm open to any suggestions of some decent brokers. By the way, can't use MT4 as I'm running of a Mac
.Will keep you posted on progress. Good luck to you all!
Matt
Last edited:
By way of update my USD/MXN order was triggered ,there was a slight gap on opening which means with my SL still in its original place, my total risk is now 1.5% of my equity rather than 1% - I can live with that though but will be wary when placing future orders. It is moving into profit and once it equals the amount of my stop, I will move it break even.
I am also looking at applying PAST to some stocks. A.G Barr PLC is of particular interest. Here is the weekly chart:
A very nice engulfing weekly candle with a gap down on market open.
Here is the one hour and a potential break of the bullish trend line. I have opened a sell position and my SL is 757.78 with 1% risked. I think this has great potential but the market behaves in mysterious ways. I am slightly cautious with stocks as the potential for gap ups / downs is more risky than the Forex markets given the market opening hours and liquidity - but we will see...
All the best,
Matt
I am also looking at applying PAST to some stocks. A.G Barr PLC is of particular interest. Here is the weekly chart:
A very nice engulfing weekly candle with a gap down on market open.
Here is the one hour and a potential break of the bullish trend line. I have opened a sell position and my SL is 757.78 with 1% risked. I think this has great potential but the market behaves in mysterious ways. I am slightly cautious with stocks as the potential for gap ups / downs is more risky than the Forex markets given the market opening hours and liquidity - but we will see...
All the best,
Matt
Hi to whomever still haunts this forum!
I had to take a break but back again and this time aim to post regular updates on my progress with the PAST strategy.
So, I am currently in three trades. I have a buy trade in the NZD/USD which I have held since Monday 3rd June. This was taken from two hammers or bullish pin bar candles on the weekly which were preceded by a nice bearish trend. I got in on the 1hr break trend line break to the upside with my SL just below the low of the previous candle and the trend line. It was a 23 pip risk which I have now brought to my SL to break even. I am currently +68 pips above break even.
I have circled my entry on the break below:
I've also been short the EUR/NZD and long the NZD/CAD since Tuesday. Both of these trades are in profit and SL's have been adjusted to break even. +33pips over break even on the EUR/USD and +12 pips over break even on the NZD/CAD.
FYI - I am trading a small account and using approx. 1% of my equity as my initial risk in each trade.
I'm sure the market will stop me out on a couple of my trades before the markets close for the weekend but we'll see.
Good luck to you all.
Matt
I had to take a break but back again and this time aim to post regular updates on my progress with the PAST strategy.
So, I am currently in three trades. I have a buy trade in the NZD/USD which I have held since Monday 3rd June. This was taken from two hammers or bullish pin bar candles on the weekly which were preceded by a nice bearish trend. I got in on the 1hr break trend line break to the upside with my SL just below the low of the previous candle and the trend line. It was a 23 pip risk which I have now brought to my SL to break even. I am currently +68 pips above break even.
I have circled my entry on the break below:
I've also been short the EUR/NZD and long the NZD/CAD since Tuesday. Both of these trades are in profit and SL's have been adjusted to break even. +33pips over break even on the EUR/USD and +12 pips over break even on the NZD/CAD.
FYI - I am trading a small account and using approx. 1% of my equity as my initial risk in each trade.
I'm sure the market will stop me out on a couple of my trades before the markets close for the weekend but we'll see.
Good luck to you all.
Matt
End of Week Update 1 - 8th June 2019
As expected I was stopped out on my NZD/CAD trade at break even. The market also decided to go against my other trades skimming away some of the profit during the day. Then the NFP figures were released and the NZD/USD trade exploded upwards. I intend to hold on to it for as long as I can.
Open Trades = 2
NZD/USD +112 pips over break even.
EUR/NZD +54 pips over break even.
I'll be scanning the markets for other potential opportunities next week.
As expected I was stopped out on my NZD/CAD trade at break even. The market also decided to go against my other trades skimming away some of the profit during the day. Then the NFP figures were released and the NZD/USD trade exploded upwards. I intend to hold on to it for as long as I can.
Open Trades = 2
NZD/USD +112 pips over break even.
EUR/NZD +54 pips over break even.
I'll be scanning the markets for other potential opportunities next week.
Potential trades for w/c Monday 10th June 2019
EUR/CHF
Here is the weekly chart with a nice bullish hammer:
This is the 4hr chart. Waiting for the break of this trend line to the upside to consider the entry.
NZD/CHF
Here's the weekly chart with a bullish engulfing candle preceded by a nice downtrend:
Here is the 4hr chart. Range between the 50 & 100 MA's narrowing and now above the 50. Waiting for a break of the trend line to enter.
NZD/JPY
Here is the weekly chart. Appears we're in a downward channel long term but may have a bounce from resistance to the upside with the bullish engulfing candle.
Here is the 4 hr chart. It looks like there was already a clean break out last week so I'll be keen to see the price at the next open. May be a re-test?
Oil
Here is the weekly chart. This might be one I avoid as it looks like the price will be consolidating long term.
Here is the 1hr chart. There was a clean break last week with price ending up above both the 50 & 100 MA. I'll be watching this closely this evening when the market re-opens.
So a few potentials. Let's see what the week brings.
All the best,
Matt
EUR/CHF
Here is the weekly chart with a nice bullish hammer:
This is the 4hr chart. Waiting for the break of this trend line to the upside to consider the entry.
NZD/CHF
Here's the weekly chart with a bullish engulfing candle preceded by a nice downtrend:
Here is the 4hr chart. Range between the 50 & 100 MA's narrowing and now above the 50. Waiting for a break of the trend line to enter.
NZD/JPY
Here is the weekly chart. Appears we're in a downward channel long term but may have a bounce from resistance to the upside with the bullish engulfing candle.
Here is the 4 hr chart. It looks like there was already a clean break out last week so I'll be keen to see the price at the next open. May be a re-test?
Oil
Here is the weekly chart. This might be one I avoid as it looks like the price will be consolidating long term.
Here is the 1hr chart. There was a clean break last week with price ending up above both the 50 & 100 MA. I'll be watching this closely this evening when the market re-opens.
So a few potentials. Let's see what the week brings.
All the best,
Matt
Well, it's the end of the week and sadly, I was stopped out on all my trades. Not to worry. Only took a small loss on the NZD/JPY of about 30 pips.
My patience was sorely tested - particularly with the NZD/USD trade which closed this morning. At one point I was some 8x my risk in profit....The bears took it all...Like Nigel says though, I consider this a simple 'cost of business'. The big swings exist and do occur regularly across all markets and as and when I catch the next one it will make up for all those losses. Until then I will continue to risk a very small percentage of my account, remove risk where possible and cut losses quickly.
Here's a screenshot from the NZD/USD - Just look at that red candle!
Here's a screenshot from my trading log:
So here's what I'm looking at for w/c 17th June:
GBP/AUD - Buy
Here's the weekly chart. We have a nice bullish engulfing candle bouncing off the horizontal trend line.
Here's the one hour chart and my attempt at a trend line. Not the most well established trend line but will be keeping an eye on this pair over the coming week:
EUR/NOK - Sell
Here's a nice shooting star on the weekly.
And here's the 4hr chart - waiting for a break of the trend line to the downside.
And that's it for this week. Have a great weekend folks.
All the best,
Matt
My patience was sorely tested - particularly with the NZD/USD trade which closed this morning. At one point I was some 8x my risk in profit....The bears took it all...Like Nigel says though, I consider this a simple 'cost of business'. The big swings exist and do occur regularly across all markets and as and when I catch the next one it will make up for all those losses. Until then I will continue to risk a very small percentage of my account, remove risk where possible and cut losses quickly.
Here's a screenshot from the NZD/USD - Just look at that red candle!
Here's a screenshot from my trading log:
So here's what I'm looking at for w/c 17th June:
GBP/AUD - Buy
Here's the weekly chart. We have a nice bullish engulfing candle bouncing off the horizontal trend line.
Here's the one hour chart and my attempt at a trend line. Not the most well established trend line but will be keeping an eye on this pair over the coming week:
EUR/NOK - Sell
Here's a nice shooting star on the weekly.
And here's the 4hr chart - waiting for a break of the trend line to the downside.
And that's it for this week. Have a great weekend folks.
All the best,
Matt
Attachments
Hi all,
Brief update - I got in EUR/NOK last night following break of the trend line and blimey - it broke massively! - After a few hours, I am already some 10x risk in profit! Going to hold onto it and see.
Also missed the boat on the GBP/AUD a couple of days ago as there was a break to the upside but have just got in on the re-test.
EUR/NOK
GBP/AUD
All the best,
Matt
Brief update - I got in EUR/NOK last night following break of the trend line and blimey - it broke massively! - After a few hours, I am already some 10x risk in profit! Going to hold onto it and see.
Also missed the boat on the GBP/AUD a couple of days ago as there was a break to the upside but have just got in on the re-test.
EUR/NOK
GBP/AUD
All the best,
Matt
Stopped out of the GBP/AUD for a small loss. Still in on the EUR/NOK, now some 14x my risk in profit. I am hoping I can ride it down to about 9.600 which is around weekly support:
For this week, I am currently looking at the following markets. All potential longs!
GBP/JPY
Here's the weekly chart with the bullish hammer and a nice preceding down trend:
Here's the hourly. Price is currently testing resistance line:
USD/MXN
Weekly. Another bullish hammer.
Here's the 4 hr. Hoping for a break to the upside.
GBP/CAD
Here's the weekly. Another bullish pin bar or hammer:
Here's the 4 hr chart. Resistance was tested whilst I was asleep last night.
Finally, here is an extract from my journal.
I am currently 1.5% down. But if I were to close my EUR/NOK trade now I would be some 5% up for the month.
All the best,
Matt
For this week, I am currently looking at the following markets. All potential longs!
GBP/JPY
Here's the weekly chart with the bullish hammer and a nice preceding down trend:
Here's the hourly. Price is currently testing resistance line:
USD/MXN
Weekly. Another bullish hammer.
Here's the 4 hr. Hoping for a break to the upside.
GBP/CAD
Here's the weekly. Another bullish pin bar or hammer:
Here's the 4 hr chart. Resistance was tested whilst I was asleep last night.
Finally, here is an extract from my journal.
I am currently 1.5% down. But if I were to close my EUR/NOK trade now I would be some 5% up for the month.
All the best,
Matt
Hi all, had a few trades this week where I was stopped out, sometimes on false breakouts and other times where my 1hr / 4hr S&R lines didn't quite marry up. I guess I got into the mindset of FOMO; 'Fear of missing out'. I am adjusting my rules as I think last week I spent too much time checking the charts on the hourly looking for entries. With my full time job and home life, I think it's unhealthy and doesn't do my trading mindset any good. So, I have taken the decision to trade clear breakouts on the 4hr time frame only. This means less time on the charts, less FOMO attitude and a more healthy mentality.
Since I have been trading PAST since the beginning of the month, I am now 3.5% down in terms of closed trades. My EUR/NOK trade is still open and price has been in a fairly narrow range this week. Have lost some profit but I am holding onto it. With this trade still open I would say my account is approx. break even. I haven't closed a single winner yet and I have 12 trades closed either at break even or at a loss and yet overall the account is flat. This to me demonstrates the potential of the PAST strategy if you can stick by your risk management and trading rules. I am confident in the long run, my winners will make up for all those losses.
Here is a snap shot of my trading journal and the trades I have taken this week.
You will see from my log that I also have two other open trades in USD/MXN and GBP/JPY (further attempts!). These are in profit but not enough for me to reduce my SL to break even yet.
Here's the EUR/NOK chart on the weekly. You can see there was a brief rally this week but I don't think it's enough to overcome the bearish momentum from the previous week. I am hoping price will reach a level of 9.600. At this level I may consider taking profits as the price here will be at a well establish weekly support. We'll see.
Here's the GBP/CAD weekly chart. Despite the bullish hammer seen the week before, whatever strength the bulls had was completely quashed this week:
Here is the GBP/JPY. I have a trade open but the trade isn't in enough profit for me to bring the SL to break even yet. This is the weekly chart:
Here's the USD/MXN on the weekly. Price in this market has been very volatile this year and I expect to be stopped out but you never know. You can see there were some really nice swings last year. Again, I am only risking a small amount of my account (0.5%) and there is potential for the price to hit $20 which for me would be about 18x my risk. The three outcomes are: Lose 0.5%, lose nothing (break even) or grow my account by possibly 9%. This is an optimum set up for me
I'll continue to keep you (or me since I only appear to frequent this forum now) updated. These are the markets I am watching for next week:
USD/HKD - Buy
Here's the weekly chart. A bullish pin bar signal:
Here's the 4hr chart. Looking for a break out of the 'box' below to the upside:
Gold - Sell
Here's the weekly chart. A very nice shooting star or bearish pin bar. I will be watching the gold market with much interest!
Here's the 4 hr chart. Waiting for a break of the trend line to the downside to consider an entry. The elipse represents the all the price action that occurred within the weekly shooting star candle above.
And that's it for this week. Enjoy the rest of your weekends!
All the best,
Matt
Since I have been trading PAST since the beginning of the month, I am now 3.5% down in terms of closed trades. My EUR/NOK trade is still open and price has been in a fairly narrow range this week. Have lost some profit but I am holding onto it. With this trade still open I would say my account is approx. break even. I haven't closed a single winner yet and I have 12 trades closed either at break even or at a loss and yet overall the account is flat. This to me demonstrates the potential of the PAST strategy if you can stick by your risk management and trading rules. I am confident in the long run, my winners will make up for all those losses.
Here is a snap shot of my trading journal and the trades I have taken this week.
You will see from my log that I also have two other open trades in USD/MXN and GBP/JPY (further attempts!). These are in profit but not enough for me to reduce my SL to break even yet.
Here's the EUR/NOK chart on the weekly. You can see there was a brief rally this week but I don't think it's enough to overcome the bearish momentum from the previous week. I am hoping price will reach a level of 9.600. At this level I may consider taking profits as the price here will be at a well establish weekly support. We'll see.
Here's the GBP/CAD weekly chart. Despite the bullish hammer seen the week before, whatever strength the bulls had was completely quashed this week:
Here is the GBP/JPY. I have a trade open but the trade isn't in enough profit for me to bring the SL to break even yet. This is the weekly chart:
Here's the USD/MXN on the weekly. Price in this market has been very volatile this year and I expect to be stopped out but you never know. You can see there were some really nice swings last year. Again, I am only risking a small amount of my account (0.5%) and there is potential for the price to hit $20 which for me would be about 18x my risk. The three outcomes are: Lose 0.5%, lose nothing (break even) or grow my account by possibly 9%. This is an optimum set up for me
I'll continue to keep you (or me since I only appear to frequent this forum now) updated. These are the markets I am watching for next week:
USD/HKD - Buy
Here's the weekly chart. A bullish pin bar signal:
Here's the 4hr chart. Looking for a break out of the 'box' below to the upside:
Gold - Sell
Here's the weekly chart. A very nice shooting star or bearish pin bar. I will be watching the gold market with much interest!
Here's the 4 hr chart. Waiting for a break of the trend line to the downside to consider an entry. The elipse represents the all the price action that occurred within the weekly shooting star candle above.
And that's it for this week. Enjoy the rest of your weekends!
All the best,
Matt
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