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Morning Market Review
EURUSD
The European currency starts a new trading week with a moderate decline. On Friday, the quotes managed to renew the local highs of August 18, but the "bullish" positions remained extremely vulnerable. The European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to adjust interest rates by a record 75.0 basis points was a key factor in changing the dynamics. Also, agency officials announced the continuation of the "hawkish" monetary policy, despite the growing risks of a recession in the EU. At the same time, analysts are sure that the regulator's measures are untimely, and the rapidly developing energy crisis makes them lose any hopes for possible economic growth. On Tuesday, Germany is to release its August CPI, and the harmonized rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 0.4% MoM and 8.8% YoY. If preliminary estimates do not implement, euro quotes may show another rally to record lows.
GBPUSD
The GBPUSD pair shows ambiguous trading dynamics during the morning session on September 12, consolidating near 1.1600. Investors are in no hurry to open new positions, preferring to wait for the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the UK. July's gross domestic product (GDP) data is expected to be released today, and analysts' forecasts suggest that the British economy will be able to show growth of 0.5% after declining by 0.6% in June. Also, during the day, traders will pay attention to statistics on the dynamics of industrial production, as well as preliminary estimates of inflation and August GDP from NIESR. Tomorrow a full-fledged report on the labor market for July-August will be published, and on Wednesday, statistics on inflation will be released – a key parameter for the Bank of England, which, we recall, is also set to fight high prices, despite the threat of a recession. Current forecasts suggest that the figure in August in annual terms will rise to a new record high of 10.2%.
XAUUSD
Gold prices practically do not change, consolidating near 1715.0 dollars per troy ounce. According to the results of the last week, the XAU/USD pair showed a slight increase, although, during Friday's trading, the "bulls" made active attempts to consolidate at the local highs of August 30. The pressure on the instrument's position is still exerted by the growing dollar and the increased yield of US Treasury bonds (it reached 3.339% for ten-year securities against 3.321% last Friday). Also, investors fear further tightening monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Recall that the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Canada adjusted interest rates by 75.0 basis points last week.
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The technology behind Solid ECN provides for quicker executions and tighter spreads with higher leverage and greater transparency.
We try to take the required steps to assure your funds are safe, along with the immense level of protection over them. That is why all our traders' funds are independently managed from our own and held in segregated accounts in Tier 1 international banks.
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Morning Market Review
EURUSD
The European currency shows a moderate increase against the US dollar, recovering from a sharp decline the day before, which again returned the EUR/USD pair to the psychological level of 1.0000. The reason for the emergence of an active "bullish" trend in the US currency on Tuesday was the publication of August data from the US on inflation. The Consumer Price Index showed an increase of 0.1%, while analysts expected a decrease by a similar amount. In annual terms, inflation slowed down from 8.5% to 8.3%, which also turned out to be worse than market expectations of a fall to 8.1%. The released data lowered the market's positive expectations regarding the effectiveness of the monetary policy pursued by the leading central banks. At the same time, the likelihood of an interest rate correction by another 75 basis points by the US Federal Reserve next week has increased. In turn, the European statistics turned out to be weak and additionally contributed to the depreciation of the single currency. According to a study by the ZEW Institute, the index of Economic Sentiment in the euro area fell from -54.9 points to -60.7 points, while analysts had expected a slight increase in the indicator to -52.0 points. The index of Economic Sentiment in Germany over the same period corrected from -55.3 points to -61.9 points, although analysts had expected a decline to -60.0 points.
GBPUSD
The British pound is trading with an uptrend, trying to restore its positions after a strong decline the day before, provoked by the release of data on inflation in the US: in monthly terms, the indicator added 0.1% against the forecast of -0.1%. Thus, the correction in the prices of oil and gasoline did not help to overcome the increase in the cost of food and services. In addition, the market for petroleum products remains highly volatile as the EU countries intend to impose cap prices on energy resources imported from the Russian Federation. In turn, pressure on the pound yesterday was exerted by not the most confident report on the labor market in the UK. The Claimant Count showed an increase in August by 6.3 thousand after a decrease of 14.5 thousand in the previous reporting period, while market forecasts assumed a decline of 9.2 thousand. At the same time, the Average Earnings Excluding Bonus added 5.2% 3MoY in July, although an increase of only 5.0% was expected, and the ILO Unemployment Rate corrected from 3.8% to 3.6%.
XAUUSD
Gold prices show a slight negative trend, consolidating near 1700.00. The day before, the XAU/USD pair showed an active decline, as traders analyzed data from the US. In particular, consumer inflation in August added 0.1% with an expected decline by a similar amount, while CPI excluding Food and Energy accelerated from 0.3% to 0.6%, which turned out to be significantly worse than neutral forecasts. In annual terms, the value adjusted from 8.5% to 8.3%. Thus, the US Federal Reserve has so far managed to only slightly slow down inflation, which raises many questions about the prospects of the current "hawkish" rate of the regulator. Currently, about 82% of analysts expect that at the September 21 meeting, the interest rate will be increased by 75 basis points to 3.00-3.25% per annum.
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Morning Market Review
EURUSD
The European currency shows a slight decrease, consolidating near the level of 0.9965 and holding near the local lows of September 8. The EUR/USD pair, having updated local highs from August 17 at the beginning of the week, went down sharply, reacting to the US data released on Tuesday. The Consumer Price Index in August showed an increase of 0.1%, while analysts expected a decrease by a similar amount. In annual terms, inflation slowed down from 8.5% to 8.3%, which turned out to be worse than market expectations at 8.1%. CPI excluding Food and Energy in August accelerated from 0.3% to 0.6% in monthly terms and from 5.9% to 6.3% in annual terms. Additional pressure on the positions of the single currency was later exerted by data from the eurozone: Industrial Production fell 2.3% in July after rising 1.1% in the previous month, although analysts had expected only -1.0%. In annual terms, the decline in production amounted to 2.4% after rising by 2.2% in June. The market fears that with the onset of cold weather and the aggravation of the energy crisis in Europe, the rate of decline in production can only increase.
GBPUSD
The British pound is trading in different directions, consolidating near 1.1500. The day before, the GBP/USD pair attempted corrective growth, but the "bulls" managed to demonstrate only limited dynamics against the backdrop of increasing demand for the "safe" dollar and the publication of August statistics on consumer inflation in the UK. Thus, the Consumer Price Index in annual terms in August retreated from its record highs at the level of 10.1% to 9.9%, while analysts expected further growth to 10.2%, and in monthly terms, its pace slowed down from 0.6% to 0.5%. The non-seasonally adjusted Core Producer Price Index fell from 14.4% to 13.7% on an annualized basis in the same period, while the forecast was at 13.9%, and on a monthly basis the same indicator adjusted from 0.8% to 0.3%. The focus of investors today will be statistics from the US on the dynamics of Retail Sales in August. Forecasts suggest a further slowdown in the indicator dynamics against the backdrop of a reduction in Household Spending on non-essential goods. In the UK, Retail Sales data will be released on Friday.
XAUUSD
Gold prices show a moderate decline, testing 1700.00 for a breakdown. At the moment, the XAU/USD pair is updating local lows from July 21, retreating under pressure from the growing dollar and expectations of further tightening of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy next week. The meeting of the regulator will be held on September 20-21 and the interest rate, as expected by most analysts, may be increased by 75 basis points for the third time in a row. In turn, the trend towards some slowdown in inflation in the US and Europe will affect the pace of tightening monetary stimulus by the leading central banks. Now the threat of a recession may come to the fore, but in the case of the American economy, there are no serious concerns for this yet. Today, the focus of investors will be statistics on the dynamics of Jobless Claims, as well as the August data on Industrial Production and Retail Sales in the US. As before, analysts expect near-zero sales dynamics in August.
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Morning Market Review
EURUSD
The EUR/USD pair is testing 1.002 for a breakout; however, investors prefer to wait for new drivers to appear on the market. In particular, the speech of the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde will take place today, in which market participants expect to hear hints on the pace of further increase in interest rates by the regulator. In addition, traders will evaluate recession forecasts in the region. At the moment, the threat of a two-quarter decline in the euro area is estimated at about 80%. Also today begins a two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve, according to the results of which the markets expect another increase in interest rates by 75 basis points. Last week, analysts for the first time spoke about a possible correction of the value by 100 basis points at once, but this probability does not exceed 15-17%. Moderate support for the single currency is also provided by the gradual decline in gas prices, which, in turn, react to growing optimism that Europe will still be able to survive the winter without Russian "blue fuel". However, it should be noted that optimism does not negate the subsidizing of payments, as well as the introduction of rationing of energy consumption.
GBPUSD
The British pound is trading with multidirectional dynamics, consolidating near 1.1430. The GBP/USD pair has been trying to recover since the record lows were updated at the end of last week, but the "bulls" are reluctant to act and expect new growth drivers, one of which may be the decision of the Bank of England to raise interest rates. At the next meeting of the British regulator, which will be held on Thursday, the rate may be adjusted by 50 basis points to 2.25%. In addition, traders are going to evaluate the effectiveness of the measures already taken and receive new inflation forecasts for the near future. Investors are also worried about a possible downturn in the economy. Bank of England officials warned of significant risks of a recession as early as the fourth quarter, which could be overcome no earlier than 2024. Finally, the fiscal policy of the country's new Prime Minister, Liz Truss, adds uncertainty to the market, as tax cuts figured as Truss's election theses.
XAUUSD
Gold prices are slightly declining, consolidating near 1670.00. The pressure on the XAUUSD pair remains ahead of the meetings of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, at which decisions can be made on further tightening of monetary policy. In particular, the US regulator may raise interest rates by 75 basis points, while the British one is likely to limit itself to a correction of 50 basis points. In addition, traders expect to receive updated recession forecasts. The Bank of England still expects that the national economy will go into recession in the fourth quarter, and will be able to get out of it no earlier than 2024. In turn, the demand for gold is supported by expanding economic and geopolitical risks, as the conflict in Eastern Europe does not weaken, and the consequences of the energy crisis increasingly affect economic activity.
Morning Market Review
EURUSD
The European currency shows mixed trading dynamics, consolidating near 0.9950. Investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions, preferring to wait for the publication of the US Federal Reserve decision on interest rates. However, the euro still traded mainly with a downtrend, which again led to the consolidation of the instrument below the psychological level of 1.0000. Some pressure on the EUR/USD pair was exerted by the deteriorating prospects for the region's economy, in connection with which the authorities are taking decisive action to curb inflation. In particular, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, spoke the day before, saying that in order to curb a sharp rise in prices, it may be necessary to raise interest rates to levels that will limit economic growth altogether. The current inflation rate in the eurozone is above 9.0% and is unlikely to fall anytime soon. Macroeconomic data released yesterday in Germany pointed to a sharp rise in producer prices. In August, the Producer Price Index rose by 7.9% after rising by 5.3% a month earlier, while analysts expected a slowdown to 1.5%, and in annual terms, the index accelerated from 37.2% to 45.8%, which also turned out to be higher than the estimated 37.5%.
GBPUSD
The British pound is trading with a weak downtrend, testing the level of 1.1370 for a breakdown. The GBP/USD pair is holding just one step away from its record lows, reacting to the prospect of further economic slowdown amid continued high inflation. However, traders prefer to stay out of the market until new drivers are released. Today, the US Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates. It is expected that the US regulator will go for another increase in the value of 75 basis points, bringing it to 3.25%. At the same time, agency officials may signal the continuation of the current course of tightening monetary policy for the near future, given that the pace of slowdown in consumer prices is clearly insufficient. Tomorrow there will be meetings of the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the National Bank of Switzerland. The British regulator is also expected to take steps aimed at tightening monetary policy; in addition, officials have repeatedly announced significant risks of a recession in the national economy already in the fourth quarter. Current forecasts suggest that the Bank of England will raise the rate by 50 basis points to 2.25%.
XAUUSD
Gold prices show a slight decline, developing a weak downward momentum formed the day before. The XAU/USD pair is testing 1660.00 for a breakdown, waiting for the publication of new drivers on the market. The focus of investors' attention on Wednesday is the publication of the decision of the US Federal Reserve on interest rates. Investors have already included a 75 basis point increase in current quotes, but it is possible that the regulator will adjust the cost of borrowing immediately by 1.0%. Either way, gold remains under pressure as global central banks hike interest rates. This week, similar steps are also expected from the Bank of England and the National Bank of Switzerland, and the day before the Bank of Sweden raised the value immediately by 100 basis points. In turn, the growing geopolitical risks, as well as the threat of a recession in the global economy, provide moderate support to the precious metal.
Morning Market Review
EURUSD
The European currency shows mixed dynamics, consolidating near 0.9830 and new record lows at 0.9800. The euro fell after the publication of the decision of the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 75 basis points to 3.25%. At the same time, the regulator signaled further plans: it is reported that by the end of the year the rate can be adjusted to 4.40%, after which in 2023 an increase to 4.60% is possible. The Fed also released forecasts for economic growth. It is assumed that in 2022 the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will rise by only 0.2%, and in 2023 it may grow by 1.2%. The euro remains under pressure from the development of the energy crisis, despite a slight correction in energy prices. Meanwhile, the European Commission has decided to ease sanctions against Russian coal, as this type of fossil fuel is increasingly used in the countries of the region as an additional source of heat and electricity.
GBPUSD
The British pound is trading down, testing new record lows around 1.1230. The GBP/USD pair reacted with a decrease to the publication of the decision of the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. Moderate pressure on the instrument can be traced today; however, activity in the market is gradually decreasing, as investors await the publication of the results of the Bank of England meeting, at which the interest rate can be adjusted by 50 basis points to 2.25%. In addition, the British regulator will publish forecasts for a possible recession in the economy in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the new British Prime Minister Liz Truss announced the introduction of incentives for industrial enterprises, which, among other things, involve reducing the price of electricity and gas by half of the current cost for the next six months. Experts have calculated that such support measures will cost the British government about 40.0 billion pounds.
XAUUSD
Gold prices have returned to a downtrend, returning to the previous record lows of 2020 near 1650.00. The pressure on the position of the instrument is exerted by the decision of the US Federal Reserve published the day before to increase the interest rate by another 75 basis points for the third time in a row. At the same time, the regulator raised inflation estimates and lowered economic growth expectations for 2022–2023. The Chair of the Fed, Jerome Powell, signaled a further tightening of monetary policy until the end of the year: in particular, it is assumed that at the next meeting the regulator can adjust the value immediately by 125 basis points. Today, investors are following the results of the meetings of the National Bank of Switzerland, which raised the interest rate from -0.25% to 0.5%, and the Bank of England, which may adjust the value from 1.75% to 2.25% (the decision will be published on 13:00 (GMT+2)). Also, the British regulator is expected to publish updated forecasts for economic growth, suggesting evidence of a possible recession in expert estimates.
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Morning Market Review
EURUSD
The European currency shows a downtrend, renewing new record lows and dropping below 0.9550, after which the EUR/USD pair still showed an uncertain corrective rebound. The instrument was falling against the US dollar at a moderate pace throughout the past week, and the culmination of the "bearish" dynamics fell on Friday, when disappointing statistics came to the market. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in Germany fell from 49.1 points to 48.3 points in September, the Services PMI decreased from 47.7 points to 45.4 points, and the Composite PMI decreased from 46.9 points to 45.9 points against the expected 46.0 points. In turn, in the euro area, the Manufacturing PMI fell from 48.9 points to 48.2 points, and the Services PMI declined from 49.8 points to 48.9 points. The focus of investors today will be the speeches of representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB), among which are Luis de Guindos, Fabio Panetta, and the President of the regulator Christine Lagarde.
GBPUSD
The British pound is trading with a strong downward momentum, approaching the parity level and updating record lows. GBP/USD is at 1.0500, retreating slightly from its record lows at 1.0270. The pressure on the British currency is exerted by the actively growing dollar, the demand for which is supported by the growth of alarming sentiment in the market. In particular, last Friday, investors paid attention to the statistics on business activity in Europe and the US, which increased the likelihood that the economy will enter a recession in the near future. The UK Services PMI from S&P Global in September declined from 50.9 points to 49.2 points, dropping below the level of 50.0 points, which separates growth from recession. The S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI for the same period fell from 49.6 points to 48.4 points, while the forecast suggested a decrease to only 49.0 points. In addition, the Consumer Confidence index from Gfk Group in September fell from -44.0 points to -49.0 points, while the forecast for a correction to -42.0 points.
XAUUSD
Gold prices show mixed dynamics, holding near 1640.00 and updating April 2020 record lows. The pressure on the position of the instrument is exerted by the growing dollar, which is supported by the deterioration of global economic forecasts. In addition, the meetings of world central banks last week, which resulted in the widespread tightening of monetary policy, had a noticeable pressure on gold. Only the Bank of Japan remained on the sidelines, announcing foreign exchange intervention. The US Federal Reserve raised rates by 75 basis points and is likely to adjust the value at least once before the end of 2022. It is noted that under certain conditions, the regulator may decide to raise the rate immediately by 1.25%.
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Solid ECN Securities is a team of experts with more than a decade of experience in trading, IT, and brokerage development. Gradually over the years, we collected priceless information about the market demands. We have learned how to safeguard and secure the trading environment on contracts.
It was in 2017, that we were determined to establish an independent hub to protect our accounts and trades. It was at that time we came up with the idea of Solid ECN Securities. We started with a self-developed platform, but due to the trading demands, the platform could meet our minimums only. Therefore, we stepped up and made it to the next level.
We formed the company and hired more experts to expand the Solid ECN brand worldwide. The pillar of the company is to provide secure trading without discrimination.
It was in 2017, that we were determined to establish an independent hub to protect our accounts and trades. It was at that time we came up with the idea of Solid ECN Securities. We started with a self-developed platform, but due to the trading demands, the platform could meet our minimums only. Therefore, we stepped up and made it to the next level.
We formed the company and hired more experts to expand the Solid ECN brand worldwide. The pillar of the company is to provide secure trading without discrimination.
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