Technical Analysis Today

[Zerologic]

USD/CNH surges after Trump tariff announcement

Financial markets have been volatile since Trump’s tariff announcement. White House report says studies have repeatedly shown tariffs are an effective tool for achieving economic and strategic objectives

The report claims that in 2024, studies found that Trump’s tariffs strengthened the US economy and led to reshoring in sectors like manufacturing and steel production.

A 2023 report by the US International Trade Commission found that Trump’s tariffs reduced Chinese imports and stimulated more US production of affected goods.

According to the Economic Policy Institute, President Trump's tariffs during his first term “have shown no apparent correlation with inflation” and have had only a temporary impact on overall prices.

The White House report stated that the media's prediction was wrong, unlike what has been feared so far about high inflation.

Despite the positive report from the White House, according to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed at its May 7 meeting is still expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% with a probability level of 91.1%.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, dropped, drawing a bearish candle with a low of 103.366, a high of 104.314, and a close of 103.802.

Today, investors will focus on US economic data on Unemployment Claims and PMI, which may get a market response.

 

[Zerologic]

Significant USD/CAD drop due to Trump tariffs

The Canadian dollar rallied sharply after the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement. USDCAD hit a 3-month low at 1.40376 by drawing a long-bodied bearish candle and a fairly long wick at the bottom of the candle. Yesterday, the price made a high of 1.43189, a low of 1.40276, and a close of 1.40822.

The Trump administration’s tariff announcement received a surprising response from the market. The USD came under pressure, instead of acting as a safe-haven in the past. The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of six major currencies, plunged with a wide gap to a low of 101.267 from a high of 103.379. The gap was quite deep, from the previous close of 103.691 to open at 103.148. The RSI shows that the DXY is currently in the oversold zone.

Unlike normal times, the USD often acts as a safe-haven currency with investors rushing to buy USD, but these are not normal times. The US Dollar is under pressure from the Trump administration's latest tariffs, which will be implemented in a gradual but rapid period.

The Trump administration will impose a 10% across-the-board tariff on all goods imported into the US starting April 5. The “reciprocal tariffs,” calculated as the ratio of US imports to exports on a per-country basis, will go into effect on April 9.

Canada has retaliated with its own potential tariffs if US trade falls outside its own USMCA limits, although Canada and Mexico have been granted additional tariff relief.

Fed officials, on the other hand, have been outspoken in warning that the tariffs could hurt expectations of a rate cut. The probability of the Fed keeping rates on hold at its May 7 meeting has fallen from 91% to 75.4%, according to the CME Group’s Fedwatch tool, given the impact of the Trump administration’s tariff opening report.

The forex market, however, is highly sensitive to recent news update. Investors will be looking ahead to the release of US and Canadian economic data due later today, including the NFP and Unemployment Rate, as well as any subtle hints from Fed Chair Powell's speech on the outlook for US interest rates and the US economy.

 

[Zerologic]

Trump Tariff Impact, WTI Prices Plunge to Low 60.21

WTI oil prices have declined consecutively for four days, with two days of long declines. On Friday, April 4, WTI oil prices plunged, drawing a long-bodied bearish candle with a wick at the bottom of the candle. WTI oil formed a high of 66.56, a low of 60.21, and a closing of 62.03. The decline in prices for four consecutive days even managed to cross the lower band line, indicating very high volatility.

The decline in oil prices aligns with the implementation of the reciprocal tariff policy announced by the Trump administration, which has sparked concerns about a global economic slowdown.

Although the Trump administration has prohibited affected countries from retaliating against the tariff policy, a trade war may be inevitable which in turn worsens the international trade environment.

A potential tariff war between the US and China will further worsen the outlook for oil demand. China has taken retaliatory steps against Trump's tariff policy by imposing a 34% tariff on American goods starting April 10 in retaliation after President Donald Trump imposed high tariffs on goods from China.

On the other hand, Trump considered his policies to have worked effectively and was proud of the US employment, which he said had soared. The US Department of Labor said there were 228,000 jobs last month, far more than the predicted 130,000. On the other hand, the unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%, with average earnings growing 0.3% in March to USD 36, or slightly higher than February.

Meanwhile, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urged the US and its trading partners to work constructively to resolve trade tensions and reduce uncertainty. She warned that the higher import tariffs announced by President Trump were clearly a significant risk to the global outlook at a time of sluggish growth.

Another reason for the decline in oil prices was that OPEC+ surprisingly announced that they would increase production by 411 thousand barrels per day in May.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold price plunges amid trade war and global risk sentiment

Trump's reciprocal tariff policy has had a tremendous impact on the financial market. Many stocks have plunged after President Donald Trump implemented tariffs. Gold has depreciated for three consecutive days, drawing bearish candles. Yesterday, gold closed lower at 2956 near the 50 MA, which could be a support zone in this area. The price has formed a high of 3054, a low of 2956, and a close of 2982 on the FXOpen platform. The long body of the candlestick reflects the high volatility that has occurred.

The impact of President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday brought the US dollar and other safe-haven currencies after the USD hit a six-month low. The dollar index (DXY) is now at a high of 103.584, up from a low of 102.540, which had reached its lowest level at 101.267.

Last Friday, China retaliated by imposing 34% tariffs on all US imports, triggering turmoil in financial markets as most global equity indices posted losses. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs appear to have caused most markets to plunge, but on the other hand, US Treasury yields have risen, with the 10-year bond up almost fifteen basis points to 4.15% at the last update on April 7. The 20-year bond also rose by 0.15% and the 30-year by 0.17%.

Ahead of the week, the US economic docket will feature the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, followed by the release of consumer and producer inflation data.

Tariff-related developments and trends across all assets will dominate the scene over the next few days. At the moment, the USD is still likely to see some uptick in demand, but that could change given the main fear is that tariffs will lead to higher inflation along with an economic recession. Markets are predicting a bleak future for the US, which will have implications for all other major economies.

 

[Zerologic]

Australian dollar strengthens as Donald Trump suddenly delays tariffs for 90 days

Donald Trump's tariff retort has rocked financial markets again. United States (US) President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on implementing new tariffs for several countries on Wednesday local time.

The delay has caused the USD to weaken again, the AUD/USD pair is seen rising, drawing a bullish candle that is longer than the previous bearish candle. The price formed a high of 0.61758 low of 0.59134, closing at 0.61473.

In Trump's post on Truth Social, he decided to delay the implementation of tariffs in full to more than 75 countries because these countries have contacted US officials to negotiate to find the right solution to the trade problems that he has conveyed in the implementation of the new duties.

Trump also wrote that he would raise tariffs on imported goods from China to 125%, effective immediately. The tariff increase for China was imposed because Beijing was considered to be less respectful of the World Market.

On the other hand, China has again retaliated by raising import tariffs on US goods to 80% from 34%, which will take effect on April 10.

Fed officials noted that uncertainty surrounding trade dynamics and inflation limits their ability to move quickly on interest rates. Barkin of the Richmond Fed and Musalem of the St. Louis Fed emphasized that tariffs complicate the policy landscape and could delay future interest rate adjustments.

According to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged has increased by 83.0%, while the probability of a rate cut is only 17.0%, which had previously increased due to Trump's reciprocal policy.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, had fallen to a low of 101.837, which then rose to close at 102.993 in response to the tariff delay. Visually, DXY is still moving below EMA 2,0, reflecting bearish sentiment.

Today, investors will focus on several US economic indicators for CPI and unemployment claims, and RBA Gov Bullock Speaks Due to speak at the Chief Executive Women 40th Anniversary Melbourne Annual Dinner.

 

[Zerologic]

The Swiss Franc is getting stronger amidst the trade war, which triggers uncertainty

The USD/CHF currency pair plunged to its lowest level from 20024 to 2025 at 0.82311 amidst global economic uncertainty amid the US-China trade war. As the country with the largest economy in the world, this tension has led to concerns because the economic downturn of the two countries could affect the economies of other countries.

Yesterday, USD/CHF drew a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 0.85747, a low of 0.82311, and closed at 0.82456. The upper band and lower band that are increasingly moving apart reflect the very high market volatility in Swiss Franc trading, which is one of the safe-haven currencies supported by Trump's tariff policy retiroca.

During the European session, the USD weakened against the Swiss Franc (CHF) amidst increasing trade tensions between the two largest economies, the US and China. The trade war started by Donald Trump with his tariff policy get a response from China.

More than 70 countries affected by Trump’s tit-for-tat tariffs have contacted Trump and are hoping for negotiations, prompting Trump to announce a 90-day pause on many new tariffs on trading partners to 10% to allow for trade negotiations with those countries.

However, US-China trade relations have reached crisis levels, with Trump raising tariffs to 125% on Chinese imports on Thursday, up from 104% imposed just a day earlier.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell sharply amid the poor US CPI data. The DXY declined sharply to a low of 100.700 from a high of 103.027, reflecting the dollar’s continued decline since President Donald Trump took office in the White House. The DXY has fallen from a high of 110.176 to a recent low of 100.700 in January-April 2025.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) fell 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.2 percent in February. Over the past 12 months, the all-goods index has risen 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustments. The energy index fell 2.4 percent in March, as the gasoline index dropped 6.3 percent, more than the electricity and natural gas index rose. In contrast, the food index rose 0.4 percent in March as the food at home index rose 0.5 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.4 percent over the month. The all-goods index, except food and energy, rose 0.1 percent in March, after rising 0.2 percent in February. Meanwhile, unemployment claims were as expected at 223k, up from the previously revised 219k.

Today, investors will be waiting for the Bureau of Labor Statistics to release its Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which is expected to rise 0.3 percent from -0.1 percent. This index measures changes in prices of finished goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy.

 

[Zerologic]

USD/CNH volatility increases amid the US-China trade war

The Chinese Yuan currency pair has experienced increased volatility amid the US-China trade war since President Trump implemented a reciprocal tariff policy against all countries considered detrimental to US interests.

Last week, USDCNH experienced increased market volatility, along with President Trump's implementation of the tariff policy. Yuan Chona weakened and reached a high of 7.4288 on April 8. However, the weakening of the Chinese Yuan did not continue and turned stronger against the USD after Trump announced a 90-day delay in the tariff policy following 70 countries requesting tariff negotiations. This policy seems to be decreasing investor confidence and causing the USD to weaken. USDNH has been bearish for three consecutive days. On Friday, the pair formed a high of 7.3354 and a low of 7.2784, closing at 7.2784, trying to cross the middle band line from the upper side.

The dollar index and dollar index futures each fell about 0.7% in Asian trading, continuing the sharp decline overnight. The dollar index also fell below 100 points, approaching the lowest level last seen in April 2022.

Investors appear to be worried about the possibility of a US recession, especially when President Donald Trump raised tariffs on China to 145%, while China imposed tariffs of 125% on Friday, April 1,1, from the previous 84% announced on Wednesday, April 9, on US goods.

The USD was further pressured by weaker-than-expected consumer inflation data for March. The dollar index (DXY) that tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies fell below the 100-day low of 99.014, closing at 99.783 on Friday.

The Fed is likely to show a very cautious stance on Trump's policies, even though analysts expect the Fed to cut interest rates sooner than expected due to the increasing economic pressures from the trade war.

The continued decline in US Treasury prices, amid doubts about the US economy under Trump, also added pressure on the dollar. Yields jumped after a massive sell-off in US Treasuries. The sell-off of US bonds is estimated to have reached US$29 trillion. This massive sell-off has rekindled the Bond Vigilante trend, which reflects a massive sell-off in the bond market due to investor concerns over inconsistent government policies. Their actions have caused yields to rise, which makes government borrowing more expensive. Their actions are a kind of warning from the market.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold consolidation is not over yet, but positive traction may support it

Yesterday, gold was traded with a small-bodied bullish candle, which was almost the same as the previous bearish candle. Gold consolidated near its all-time high above 3200. XAUUSD formed a high of 3233, a low of 3207, a close of 3228.

Gold selling is still ongoing, but buying is also within normal limits. Investors seem to still be worried about the potential economic impact of the escalating US-China trade war, which in turn supports safe-haven assets such as Gold.

China increased tariffs on US imports to 125% on Friday in retaliation for Trump's decision to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to an unprecedented 145%. This keeps Gold prices close to their all-time highs reached on Monday.

Analysts are concerned about the development of the US-China trade war as the US still imports some hard-to-replace materials from China which has weakened US economic confidence and increased fears of a US recession along with bets that the Fed will soon resume its interest rate cut cycle and reduce the interest rate on loans at least three times through 2025. Low interest rates are beneficial for non-yielding assets such as gold.

Global risk sentiment improved after the White House announced on Friday that smartphones, computers, and other electronics would be temporarily exempted from reciprocal tariffs. Trump said on Monday he was considering a possible exemption for the automotive industry from the 25% tariffs because companies need more time to switch to parts made in the US.

The temporary exemption has fueled market uncertainty, as Trump also threatened to impose tariffs on pharmaceutical products in the near future.

The performance of the US dollar showed a slight recovery near the low of 99.014 formed on April 11. DXY on April 15 rose to a high of 100.276 low of 99.479 and closed at 100.159. Despite the recovery, the transaction volume has not been able to reverse the situation; DXY is still moving below the EMA 20.

Today, investors will wait for US economic data, retail sales are expected to rise 1.3% from the previous 0.2%. Elsewhere, the BOC will release the overnight rate, which is expected to remain unchanged at 2.75%.

 

[Zerologic]

AUD/USD extends gains, could it reach the 200-day MA?

The AUDUSD currency pair on Wednesday drew a bullish candle with a lower high. The price formed a high of 0.63911 low of 0.63222, and closed at 0.63727. This increase extended the bullish sentiment of AUDUSD that started on April 9, where AUDUSD collapsed at a low of 0.559134.

The bullish sentiment on AUDUSD gives hope that it can reach the resistance level based on the 200-day MA at 0.64795. However, it must be able to pass the resistance of 0.63084, which is the high price on February 21. The previous increase was driven by optimism around China's GDP, which grew 5.4% year-on-year in Q1, beating estimates. However, this rebound remains fragile amid ongoing US-China trade tensions and the Aussie's role as a proxy for Chinese demand.

The trade war remains a key issue for the Australian dollar, given Australia’s close economic ties with China and its heavy reliance on commodity exports, which increases its exposure to these tensions. President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs of between 10% and 50% has sparked talk of retaliatory measures, raising fears of a full-blown trade war. Such a development could dampen global growth, push up consumer prices, and complicate central bank policy decisions.

The US-China trade war has been the most in the spotlight for economists, with President Trump imposing tariffs of 145% on certain Chinese goods. China retaliated shortly after with tariffs of 125% on US goods imported into China, up from 84%. This has again angered the US, which has threatened to impose tariffs of 245%, as China has retaliated with increased tariffs.

Australia’s strategists say the Australian dollar remains a barometer of the US-China trade dispute. The RBA is likely to ease policy in May, but the main driver of the AUD will be developments in the commodity trade. Domestically, the Australian economy is facing pressure from global decoupling, and an expected RBA interest rate cut in May could limit upside potential.

The dollar index, which is the benchmark for the USD against six major currencies, is still weakening. The DXY shows a bearish sentiment with a bearish candle with a low of 99.174 failing to extend its recovery after reaching a high of 100.104. The DXY is moving away from the 20-day MA, which reflects a strong bearish sentiment.

US retail sales showed an increase of 1.4% MoM in March, slightly above expectations, while retail sales YoY rose 4.6%. On the other hand, China's Q1 GDP surprised to the upside at 5.4% YoY; March activity indicators also beat estimates.

The RBA is expected to cut rates in May, although China's proxy status makes the AUD vulnerable to external headwinds. However, Governor Michele Bullock highlighted the challenge of bringing inflation back within the 2-3% target. This decision is generally considered hawkish, reducing the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut at the May 20 meeting from 80% to 70%.

Today, investors will highlight some important economic data, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate in Australia, which may trigger the movement of AUD today. On the other hand, the US will also release Unemployment Claims data, which is expected to increase slightly. And what is awaited is the speech of Fed Chair Powell, who speaks on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Chicago, which may give subtle hints that are hawkish or dovish and can trigger market speculation.

 

[Zerologic]

Oil prices rise in response to US sanctions on Iran

WTI oil prices rose, breaking out of the consolidation zone, extending the previous bullish candle, and successfully breaking through the resistance zone of 61.28. Yesterday, WTI oil prices with the symbol XTIUSD drew a long-bodied bullish candle with few shadows. Oil prices formed a high of 64.17, a low of 61.95, and a closing at 63.65.

Oil prices plunged to a low of 54.72 on April 9 but quickly rebounded to a high of 62.49 on the same day. Fluctuations in oil prices occurred along with Trump's tariff policy, which had an impact on several financial markets. Another reason is a rumour that OPEC+ will increase supply in May.

Recently, oil prices rose due to concerns about a tighter supply chain following new US sanctions on Iran. On Wednesday, the Trump administration announced new sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports, including measures against a "teapot" refinery based in China. The US move is aimed at suppressing Iranian exports amid rising tensions over its nuclear program. According to a statement from the US Treasury Department, the sanctions are intended to prevent Chinese imports of Iranian oil as President Trump ramps up his “maximum pressure” campaign, which aims to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero.

Elsewhere, OPEC said it had received new plans from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and other producers planning additional production cuts to offset previous overproduction.

On the oil demand side, crude oil prices are supported by optimism amid US-China trade negotiations. China has shown a willingness to engage in talks, provided several key conditions are met. Oil prices have risen more than 2% this week, positioning themselves for the first weekly gain this month.

However, despite the support from the oil price increase, analysts are still skeptical about further gains as OPEC, the International Energy Agency (IEA), Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan have all lowered their oil demand forecasts due to trade tensions caused by the trade war. Elsewhere, the WTO has also lowered its global trade forecast from previously projecting a 3.0% expansion to a 0.2% decline this year.