Technical & Fundamental Analysis on one of the Most traded pairs
- Thread starter Avinash
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Attached is the hourly chart for AUDUSD. AUDUSD has been flowing in an up channel as the trend seems to be up but currently it is been help at the support of the up channel trend line. If the channel support breaks then we may expect the Aussie to be much weaker as the trend line as been broken which would indicate a uptrend has been broken. Moreover Reserve Bank of Australia has maintained its interest rate unrevised at 4.25% as expected. The RBA has not decided to cut any interest rates as policy makers discuss that this would continue for a month or so if any action has to be taken place.
See the Euro chart, it is a 4 hourly chart representing an uptrend in a channel type format. Currently the Euro is moving in a range between 1.3385 and 1.3285.
EURUSD resistance and support levels
R1 / 1.3385 R2 / 1.3485 R3 / 1.3636
S1 / 1.3285 S2 / 1.3185 S3 / 1.3131
Attached is the hourly chart on Gold (XAUUSD) before the trendline broken.
Technical Data: As you can see that the Gold has been moving within the triangular pattern range and the gaps has been narrowing till 3rd April waiting for a breakout to happen.
The Triangle has been broken as it broke the support level which fell further. Both Technical data and Fundamental Data helped the Gold to fall against the Dollar. The best way to trade with a triangle pattern is to either wait for it to bounce from the support/resistance level & take a counter position or wait for it break the support or resistance level & follow the trend position.
Fundamental Data: Dollar index soared after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes further dampened the hope for the 3rd round of Quantitative Easing. As per the last meeting from the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke who said that the job market was slow and the economy will have to do exceptionally well to improve the employment sector in US. The minutes showed Fed Policy makers a change in the minds for additional stimulus. In March meeting, a couple of members indicated that initiation of additional stimulus would become necessary if the economy lost momentum. Gold slipped more than 2% against the greenback from the high of 1682 to 1638$ an ounce.
As Gold broke the triangle, Gold fell further to form a downtrend channel and is on the support currently. Although Gold has not broken completely, it is always better for the next candle opening to be below the channel to get a more better confirmation on the trend as the current candle is still in play. If the next candle opens below the trend line then it would give a confirmation on a downtrend as the channel support will become a new resistance level.
Attached is the 1 hour chart on Gold showing the trend continuation after breaking the previous triangle and downtrend channel. After breaking the triangle on 3rd April, Gold fell from 1666 to 1634$ an ounce indicating a position to take sell from the higher level in order to make approx 30$ profit.
Gold fell nearly to 1633-1634$ testing the downtrend channel which was broken yesterday which gave an opportunity to fall further after the breakout from the downtrend support line to the low of 1612$.
Attached is the 1 hour chart of GBPUSD. As per the chart, you can see that the GBPUSD is forming a triangle pattern. Triangle Pattern is very helpful to know that the pair would follow in a narrow consolidating pattern waiting for a breakout. Breakout is indicated by the red arrows if it breaks the resistance or support area can further determine the trend continuation. If it breaks the lower base of the triangle then it may be begin a downtrend and if the higher tip of the triangle then it may begin an uptrend
In the chart, you can also see 2 more additional lines- 200 Moving Average (purple line) & 100 Moving Average (green line). Currently both the 100 MA & 200 MA is acting as a resistance at the almost same level with the triangle resistance indicating a good resistance level.
I have inserted both 4hr Chart and 1hr Chart on Gold to compare the trends between them.
4HR Chart on Gold shows a Downtrend channel pattern with a strong confirmation for buying and selling signals holding for good number of pips.- If anyone is looking to trade in Gold for a longer time frame wait for it bounce or break the trendline. If Gold bounces from the trendline then you can target the median of the channel and have stop loss beyond the trendline. If Gold breaks the trendline then you can find a new support or resistance level to determine the profit target and stoploss
1HR chart shows as an uptrend indicating market creating lower highs in a uptrend channel pattern format. I have attached shorter time frame moving average for more confirmation of the trend. So the combination of uptrend channel and Moving Average can help in determining the trend.
Attached is the 1 hr Chart and 4 hr Chart again for Gold
1 Hr Chart on Gold had shown a strong uptrend which has moved into a consolidated slight uptrend but has a strong support level indicated by MA 200 purple line. Trend still seems to be up until the support of 1650 is broken however 1653 is the support for current trend line.
4 Hr Chart on Gold is currently showing a downtrend level until the current 1673$ level is not broken. The resistance will change from time to time so the uptrend resistance channel along with MA 200 purple line will indicate a good resistance level
Attached is the hourly chart for Gold which has been monitored for a couple of days as showed in the chart. From 5th April, Gold formed an uptrend channel (indicated by blue lines) until 13th April which had been broken last week. Since then Gold is moving in a downtrend channel (indicated by red lines) showing bouncing several times from the thin trend line. Recently gold has been creating lower lows which is supported by the black line as a strong support. Gold has been trying to break 1653-1657 levels which has been difficult to break the red top channel and moving average 200 purple lines.
Gold has been continuing to create multiple entry and exit points as continuing to flow in a downtrend consolidating range. Blue lines showed an uptrend which was broken on 13th April. The 2 red lines indicate that gold has been moving in a parallel range downwards also the moving average 200 purple line acts as a resistance along with the 2 red lines. Green lines indicate a strong downtrend support created currently as it had been moving within such range as it shows downtrend triangle. The black bubbles indicate counter trend position opportunities to enter the market for profit and red bubbles indicate a breakout from trend position to enter the market for profit.
Attached is the 4 hour chart on Gold which is forming a triangular either waiting for a breakout or bouncing within the triangular consolidation pattern. 1630$ an ounce seems to be a good support level and if broken may determine a further price action downwards...
Attached is the 4 hr chart on Gold which I had attached previously for a triangular pattern waiting for a breakout. Breakout on Gold happened yesterday as Gold fell from 1630 levels to a low of 1580$ an ounce. So the trend for gold is down but its better to have a sell position from higher levels until 1595$ resistance is not broken
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