Tifia Daily Market Analytics

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: investors prefer safe havens

06/06/2017

Current dynamics

The dollar continues to be under pressure following Friday's disappointing US labor market data for May. As you know, despite the fact that the unemployment rate in the US fell by 0.1% to a level of 4.3%, the NFP was significantly below the forecast. The number of jobs outside of US agriculture in May increased by 138,000 compared with April (the forecast was +184,000).

Against the backdrop of a number of political and economic events that have recently occurred and are expected this week, investors prefer to withdraw their savings into safe haven assets - government bonds, yen, precious metals.

Strengthening tensions in the Middle East around Qatar, a number of recent terrorist attacks in Britain, lower expectations of budget stimulation of the US economy, the expectation of the speech of former FBI director James Komi before the US Congress on Thursday, as well as parliamentary elections in the UK and the ECB meeting also scheduled for Thursday - here are the main geopolitical risks that increase the demand for gold and other safe assets.

Gold enjoys strong demand even though the probability of an increase in the interest rate in the US next week is estimated by investors higher than 90%. As you know, higher interest rates make dollar assets more attractive to investors, and lead to the sale of gold. This precious metal does not bring interest income and can not compete with assets that generate such income, for example, government bonds. At the same time, the cost of acquiring gold and its storage is growing.

And, nevertheless, the increased geopolitical risks promote active purchases of gold.

So, at the beginning of today's European session, gold is trading near the level of 1288.00 dollars per troy ounce, which is $ 20 or 1.5% higher than the opening price of the current month.

At the same time, the index of the dollar WSJ, which reflects the value of the US dollar against the basket of 16 other currencies, fell to a value of 88.16, approaching the levels where it was before the victory of Donald Trump in the November 8 elections.

It is likely that before June 8, when the elections to the British Parliament and the ECB meeting on monetary policy are held, the pair XAU / USD will maintain a positive trend with a propensity for further growth.


Support and resistance levels

Having rebounded from the support level of 1220.00 (the lower border of the rising channel on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), since the middle of last month the pair XAU / USD continues to grow actively within the upward channel on the daily chart.

The nearest target and resistance level of 1292.00 (Year and April highs) can be passed to the nearest trading session. A more distant goal is the resistance level of 1305.00, just above which the upper limit of the ascending channel passes on the daily chart. The highs of the previous wave of growth of the pair XAU / USD are near the level of 1370.00.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of buyers.

The reverse scenario is related to the return of the pair XAU / USD to support level 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) and further decrease to support levels 1257.00 (EMA200 on 4-hour chart), 1248.00 (Fibonacci level 50%). Breakdown of the key support level of 1240.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will increase the risks of a return to the downtrend.

Support levels: 1277.00, 1261.00, 1257.00, 1248.00, 1240.00, 1220.00, 1200.00, 1185.00

Resistance levels: 1292.00, 1305.00



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1278.00. Stop-Loss 1293.00. Take-Profit 1270.00, 1257.00, 1248.00, 1240.00

Buy Stop 1293.00. Stop-Loss 1278.00. Take-Profit 1305.00, 1400.00

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: GDP data supported the Australian dollar

07/06/2017



Current dynamics

While all the attention of investors is concentrated these days on Europe, the Australian dollar has received powerful support today from positive macro statistics and is actively growing in the foreign exchange market. The Australian dollar strengthens in the foreign exchange market, and the AUD / USD pair has been growing for the fourth consecutive session.

According to the data released today, Australia's GDP in the first quarter grew by 0.3% (the forecast was + 0.2%) against + 1.1% in the previous quarter and by 1.7% in annual terms (forecast was +1.5 %). The data turned out to be better than the forecast, which inspired market participants, who resumed purchases of the Australian currency, despite the fact that this is the slowest annual GDP growth rate since 2009.

The growth of the Australian economy continues for 26 years after the recession that ended in the early 1990s. Over the years, the country's economy has become one of the most sustainable in the world.

Nevertheless, slow growth rates of wages and incomes of the population of Australia, increased unemployment and low, according to the RBA, the growth rate of the country's GDP can not but alarm the monetary authorities and the Australian government.

As you know, yesterday, the RB of Australia left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. As it was said in the accompanying statement, "the strengthening of the Australian dollar will complicate the adjustment of the economy", and "the preservation of rates unchanged corresponds to the goals in relation to GDP, inflation". As noted in the RBA, the conditions for doing business in the country have improved, the capacity utilization has increased, however, there are other risks for the country's economy that restrain the RBA from tightening monetary policy.

At the same time, the slowdown in China's economy, Australia's largest trade and economic partner, its high debt levels represent an external medium-term risk factor for economic growth in Australia.

On Thursday (01:30 GMT), the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish data on the foreign trade balance of Australia for April. A decrease in the balance surplus is expected to reach 1.91 billion Australian dollars. First of all, it is necessary to pay attention to the export data, which is the most important component of the country's budget. Reduction of the balance and export level surplus may negatively affect the quotations of the Australian dollar.

Also on Thursday and Friday during the Asian trading session in China, published a number of important macroeconomic indicators (for May). If the data indicate deterioration in China's foreign trade balance and a slowdown in inflation, the Australian dollar may also react with a decline.


Support and resistance levels

The AUD / USD pair broke the key resistance level 0.7510 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart) at a strong positive momentum at the beginning of the month from the support level of 0.7375 (the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart and on the weekly chart) and develops an upward trend.

The pair AUD / USD is trading in the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which is above the resistance level of 0.7840 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts went to the side of buyers.

The pair's growth will continue with the targets of 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.7840 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of the pair's decline since July 2014), provided the US dollar remains weak. A more distant medium-term goal in this case is the level of 0.8000 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). If the positive dynamics of the AUD / USD pair remains, this goal can be achieved by September-October of the current year.

The reverse scenario implies a return to the descending channel on the daily chart and the resumption of the decline in the wave that began in mid-March. The breakdown of the short-term support level at 0.7460 (EMA200 on 1-hour, 4-hour charts and 23.6% Fibonacci level) will confirm this scenario. The nearest medium-term goal in case of further decline in the pair will be the level of 0.7330 (November and May lows). The next target in case of breakdown of this support level is the level of 0.7155 (May, December minima of 2016). The minimum of wave in the last global decline of the pair since July 2014 is close to the level of 0.6830.

Support levels: 0.7510, 0.7460, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155

Resistance levels: 0.7570, 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7490. Stop-Loss 0.7530. Take-Profit 0.7460, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155

Buy Stop 0.7570. Stop-Loss 0.7530. Take-Profit 0.7600, 0.7680, 0.7760

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: US stock indexes are rising

08/06/2017



Current dynamics

Despite all the volatility of foreign exchange markets and the uncertainty in the world political arena observed in recent weeks, the US stock market remains stable, as evidenced by the continued growth of major US stock indexes.

While the index of the dollar WSJ, which reflects the value of the US dollar against 16 other currencies, declined in recent months to a level near the level of 88.00 (on Tuesday the index closed at a minimum since November 4), and the yield of 10-year US government bonds fell to the level of 2.1 % -2.2%, US stock indexes are breaking new records. So, the S & P500 index rose by 1.2% in May. DJIA and S & P500 rose for the second month in a row. But the biggest increase is demonstrated by the technological index Nasdaq, which in May grew by 2.5%, and the Nasdaq index has been growing for the seventh month in a row.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which includes shares of the largest US banks, also demonstrates a stable upward trend, which began in February last year.

Even after the publication of an ambiguous report on the US labor market, published last Friday, the main US stock indexes rose again. The unemployment rate reached a minimum in May for 16 years, down to 4.3% from 4.4% in April. In general, the report on the US labor market is favorable enough for the Fed to raise interest rates next week. The probability of this is estimated by investors at about 90%.

"Given the good state of the economy", as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Patrick Harker said last week, we can expect further growth in US stock indices, even though the Fed will raise the interest rate.

Uncertainty about the implementation of the new economic policy of US President Donald Trump seems to be less worrisome for investors who are betting on the growth of the US stock market.

Today and tomorrow, a volatility surge is expected in the foreign exchange market due to the fact that

the ECB decides on the interest rate, there will be elections in the UK, and in the US, a former FBI head James Komi will speak in a Senate committee, testifying to the possible impact of Russia on the election campaign in the US, which can further complicate the position of President Donald Trump . The most cautious traders today took a wait-and-see attitude.

With respect to the US stock indices, we can say that strong corporate reports for the first quarter, evidence of a stable recovery in the US economy, and a policy of gradual increase in interest rates in the US create the basis for further growth of the US stock market.


Support and resistance levels

At the beginning of the month the DJIA index exceeded the recent annual highs near 21170.0 and closed last week at the new absolute maximum of 21200.0.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts continue to remain on the side of buyers. The DJIA index continues to grow in the ascending channels on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts. In case of breakdown of the level 21200.0, the growth of the index may continue.

In the alternative scenario, a short-term correction to the lower border of the uplink and EMA200 on the 1-hour chart (level 21115.0) is possible. Deeper correction movement is possible to the lower border of the ascending channel on the daily chart (level 20600.0).

If the downward trend is to increase, then the decline in the index may extend to support levels of 20360.0 (April lows), 19990.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart and December highs), 19850.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after recovery in February this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year. The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level of 0% are near the mark of 21170.0).

The positive dynamics of the US stock market and DJIA index remains. Only in case of breakdown of the support level 19850.0 can we speak about the breakdown of the bullish trend.

Support levels: 21170.0, 21020.0, 21000.0, 20965.0, 20825.0, 20600.0, 20500.0, 20360.0, 19990.0, 19850.0

Resistance levels: 21200.0, 22000.0



Trading Scenarios

Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 21090.0. Take-Profit 21220.0, 22000.0

Sell Stop 21090.0. Stop-Loss 21220.0. Take-Profit 21020.0, 21000.0, 20965.0, 20825.0, 20600.0

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at [URL deleted]

 

[TifiaFX]

XAG/USD: The dollar is strengthening

09/06/2017

Current dynamics

The third trading session the dollar strengthens in the foreign exchange market against the assets-shelters - yen, franc, precious metals. The dollar received an additional positive impulse today after the first results of the elections to the UK Parliament became known, and after the ECB yesterday's meeting. As you know, the ECB kept the benchmark interest rate at 0%, the deposit rate - at the level of -0.4%, the rate on marginal loans - at the level of 0.25%. The QE program, in which the ECB monthly buys European assets worth 60 billion euros, has also remained unchanged.

The pound today collapsed in the foreign exchange market immediately after the first results of the exit poll of the elections became known yesterday at 21:00 (GMT), according to which the Conservatives and its leader, the current Prime Minister of Britain, Theresa May, failed to achieve an absolute majority in the country's parliament. The ruling Conservative party, although it remains the largest in the parliament, received 314 of 650 seats. Most votes are provided by 326 seats. Any factors that increase uncertainty around Brexit will be negative for the pound and the British stock market.

The US dollar, meanwhile, is building up its positions in the foreign exchange market. The index of the dollar WSJ, which reflects the value of the US dollar against the basket of 16 other currencies, rose yesterday by 0.1%, to 88.21.

Now, after the ECB meeting, investors' attention shifts to a meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, which will be held on June 13-14. Most market participants expect an interest rate increase of 0.25%.

August gold futures fell 1.2% yesterday, to 1278.20 dollars per troy ounce.

Other precious metals, in particular silver, are also falling in price. The pair XAG / USD is down today for the third consecutive session, trading during today's European session near the mark of 17.35 dollars per troy ounce. The probability of an increase in the interest rate in the US next week is estimated by investors higher than 90%. As you know, higher interest rates make dollar assets more attractive to investors, and lead to the sale of precious metals that do not bring interest income. At the same time, the costs of their acquisition and storage are growing.

And, nevertheless, the continuing geopolitical risks, as well as political uncertainty in the UK, the US, France, where elections to the local parliament will also take place this weekend, support the demand for precious metals.

Of the news for today, it is worth paying attention to the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of data from the labor market of Canada, which may increase volatility in the foreign exchange market.


Support and resistance levels

For the past 4 weeks, the pair XAG / USD has skyrocketed in the upward short-term channel on the 4-hour chart, the upper limit of which is close to the level of 17.86.

At the moment, after a three-day corrective decline, the pair XAG / USD is trading near support levels of 17.25 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart), 17.35 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of sellers.

The reduction scenario is associated with a breakthrough in the support level at 17.25 and a further decline in the downward channel on the daily chart with targets of 16.85 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of corrective growth to the fall of the pair since August 2016 and the level of 20.59), 16.05, 15.72 (low of 2016 ).

The immediate goal in the case of continued growth of the pair XAG / USD are the levels of 17.58 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 17.86 (EMA144 on the weekly chart). Here, the upper line of the descending channel passes on the daily and weekly charts.

More distant medium-term targets are the levels 18.17 (Fibonacci 50%), 18.48 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and April highs), 18.75 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).

In the dynamics of the pair XAG / USD, one should pay attention to the current correlation with the pairs USD / JPY (-85%), XAU / USD (71%). Given the rather high cross-correlation, and how these pairs are relative to key support levels (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), the conclusion suggests: either the pair XAG / USD will grow slightly (within 1.0% - 1.5%), Or remain at the current level of 17.35 (key support level (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), but provided that the dollar in pairs USD / JPY, XAU / USD increases by the same amount (1.0% - 1.5%).

In the current situation of geopolitical uncertainty and on the eve of the Fed meeting next week, both options are possible.

Support levels: 17.35, 17.25, 17.00, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72

Resistance levels: 17.58, 17.86, 18.17, 18.48, 18.75



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 17.23. Stop-Loss 17.46. Take-Profit 17.00, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72

Buy Stop 17.46. Stop-Loss 17.23. Take-Profit 17.58, 17.86, 18.17, 18.48, 18.75

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at [URL deleted]

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: when will the pair begin to decline?

13/06/2017



Current dynamics

This week a number of important events will take place: meetings of central banks of Switzerland, Great Britain, Japan. However, the focus of traders will be a two-day meeting of the Fed (June 13-14) and the Fed's decision on the interest rate, which will be published June 14 at 18:00 (GMT). Forecast: the rate will be increased by 0.25% to 1.25%. After the decision on the interest rate, a comment on the monetary policy (FOMC Statement) is published and the press conference of the Federal Reserve begins. In the period of publication, a surge in volatility is expected across the financial market, and market participants will study the statement of the Fed on the presence of signals for further plans for monetary policy.

Higher interest rates tend to support the dollar, making US assets more attractive to investors, and putting pressure on commodity prices and commodity currencies. If the Fed signals about the possibility of one or two more rate increases this year, the US dollar will receive significant support.

Also on Wednesday (at 22:45 GMT) a report on New Zealand's GDP for the first quarter is published. Forecast: + 0.7% (previous value + 0.4%). The publication of data will cause increased volatility in NZD. Against the background of rising prices for agricultural products in recent years (especially for dairy products, which is an important part of New Zealand's exports), it is likely that the report on New Zealand's GDP for the first quarter will come with positive indicators, and this will positively affect the positions of the New Zealand currency.

If the GDP report turns out to be worse than expected, and the Fed signals about the possibility of further interest rate hikes, then the NZD / USD pair may drop sharply and finally begin a corrective downward movement to the pair's active growth from the middle of last month.

Otherwise, the pair NZD / USD will continue its upward movement against the backdrop of positive macro data coming in from New Zealand recently.

We also await data from New Zealand on the balance of payments for the first quarter (it is expected that the negative balance was 1 billion New Zealand dollars against the surplus of 1.18 billion NZ dollars in the 1st quarter of last year), which are published today at 10:45 (GMT) And data from China (retail sales, industrial production in May) on Wednesday morning, which will increase the volatility of trades on the New Zealand dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and Resistance levels

As a result of active growth, which began in the middle of last month, the pair NZD / USD broke through a strong resistance level of 0.7190 (EMA144 on the weekly chart) and came close to the resistance level of 0.7235 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global fall wave from the level of 0.8800 , Which began in July 2014, the minimums of December 2016).

A little higher, through to the resistance level of 0.7270 is the 200-period moving average on the weekly chart. Thus, the NZD / USD pair is in the zone of strong resistance levels. For further growth and breakdown of these levels, the pair NZD / USD needs strong positive fundamental drivers, for example, signals from the RBNZ about the possibility of an early interest rate increase in New Zealand. The next meeting of the RBNZ on this issue will be held on June 21, ie. Already next week.

As you know, RBNZ last month kept interest rate at 1.75% and stated that interest rates will remain unchanged for quite a long time, at least until the third quarter of 2019. If, however, in the rhetoric of the bank will be marked a more rigid position, the New Zealand dollar will receive a strong support, and then the resistance level of 0.7270 can be passed.

Otherwise, the New Zealand dollar and the pair NZD / USD are waiting for a decline.

While the RBNZ seeks to keep the current monetary policy unchanged, the Fed says it plans to gradually tighten monetary policy in the US. The difference between the monetary policies of the RBNZ and the Fed will remain the main fundamental factor in favor of the US dollar in the next couple of years, despite the possible growth periods for the NZD / USD pair over several weeks.

The return of the pair NZD / USD to the short-term support level 0.7165 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) may trigger a further decline in the NZD / USD pair and in the medium term with a target near the key support level of 0.7050 (EMA200, EMA144, EMA50 on the daily chart).

By the way, indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily period begin to unfold on short positions.

Support levels: 0.7190, 0.7165, 0.7100, 0.7050, 0.6945, 0.6900, 0.6885, 0.6860, 0.6818

Resistance levels: 0.7235, 0.7270, 0.7300, 0.7380



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7190. Stop-Loss 0.7240. Take-Profit 0.7165, 0.7100, 0.7050, 0.6945, 0.6900, 0.6885, 0.6820

Buy Stop 0.7240. Stop-Loss 0.7190. Take-Profit 0.7270, 0.7300, 0.7380

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: inflation "eats" the wages of Britons

14/06/2017



Overview and dynamics

Despite the fact that the Fed is expected to raise the key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point following its two-day meeting, which will end today, the dollar remains under pressure in the foreign exchange market. The index of the dollar WSJ, which tracks the value of the US dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, decreased by 0.2%, to 88.31. The probability of such a decision on the part of the Fed is estimated by investors at 100%.

Nevertheless, market participants are waiting for a press conference (will begin at 18:30 GMT) and comments of the Fed to assess further plans for interest rates and reducing the balance.

The rate increase today at 0.25% is already taken into account in prices. And if the Fed signals about the suspension of tightening monetary policy, the US dollar will further fall. Slowing inflation in the US could alert the Fed.

So, today at 12:30 (GMT) a block of the most important macro data from the USA is published, including inflation indices (retail sales and consumer price index for May). Nearly zero growth in May is expected (+ 0.1% and + 0.0%, respectively), which again indicates a slowdown or a very weak inflation rate in the US.

If the Fed signals about the possibility of raising the rate one or two more times this year, the dollar will rise sharply in the foreign exchange market. The likelihood of such a scenario is also possible. As the Fed officials said more recently, the central bank can go on raising rates, despite a weak inflation rate, in order to avoid overheating the economy and the growth of soap bubbles in the US stock market.

As for the pound, yesterday, along with the Canadian dollar, it was among the leaders of growth against the US dollar. The pound rose on strong inflation data from the European session yesterday (the consumer price index in the UK rose to 2.9% in May in annual terms (the forecast was + 2.7%)), the highest level in nearly four years.

Today, the pair GBP / USD demonstrates the reverse dynamics and declines at the beginning of the European session. According to the data published on Wednesday, the level of wages adjusted for inflation fell for the second consecutive month compared to the same period last year. Real wages declined by 0.6% compared to the same period last year. The incomes of the country's population are declining because of inflation. This could negatively affect the growth of the British economy, which is highly dependent on domestic consumption. Consumer spending is an important component of UK GDP growth.

On Thursday, the Bank of England (11:00 GMT) decides on the interest rate. It is likely that the interest rate will remain at the same level of 0.25%. Also at this time are published: a report on the monetary policy with the results of voting on the rate and other issues, as well as with comments on the state of the economy; the protocol of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) with the distribution of votes for and against the increase / decrease in the interest rate. The Bank of England will be very cautious about the issue of raising the interest rate, despite the high level of inflation in the country.

The intrigue about the further actions of the Bank of England remains. In the period of publication of the decision of the bank and during its subsequent press conference, the volatility of the pound trade is expected, which is already characterized by its high intraday volatility.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics



Technical analysis

Despite support from strong inflation data, the pair GBP / USD failed to break through resistance level 1.2800 (EMA200 on 1-hour and daily charts), and after the publication of data on the labor market in the UK in the European session again declining.

The pound continues to remain under pressure amid uncertainty around Brexit.

At the moment, the pair GBP / USD is trading at support level 1.2715 (EMA144 on the daily chart). In case of a breakdown of the support level of 1.2640 (June lows and the lower limit of the uplink on the daily chart), the GBP / USD pair will accelerate.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.

Negative dynamics prevails. The pair GBP / USD decline will continue with the nearest targets near the levels 1.2550, 1.2340, between which the lower limit of the ascending channel passes on the weekly chart.

The alternative scenario implies the return of the GBP / USD pair above the level of 1.2825 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) with the prospect of further growth within the upward channel on the daily chart with targets of 1.3050 (annual highs), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% GBP / USD in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200 and the upper limit of the rising channel on the daily chart).

Support levels: 1.2715, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2550, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110

Resistance levels: 1.2800, 1.2825, 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2690. Stop-Loss 1.2770. Take-Profit 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110

Buy Stop 1.2770. Stop-Loss 1.2690. Take-Profit 1.2800, 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website [URL deleted]

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: after the Fed meeting

15/06/2017

Current dynamics

As a result of a two-day meeting, the Fed raised yesterday the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25%. The decision was expected, and the dollar reacted with sufficient restraint to it. The dollar began to strengthen later, when at 18:30 (GMT) the FRS press conference began, from which it became known that the Fed is planning another increase towards the end of the year, as well as cutting its budget, which is about 4.5 trillion US dollars. The portfolio of FRS assets rose to the current level from 800 billion dollars before the crisis, which was due to a number of bond purchase programs aimed at reducing long-term interest rates.

According to some economists' estimates, the reduction of assets by $ 675 billion by 2019 will be equivalent to raising the key short-term interest rate of the Federal Reserve by a quarter of a percentage point. The process of reducing the balance of the Fed will also lead to an increase in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, which will be accompanied by the strengthening of the dollar.

Thus, the Fed once again confirmed its intention to tighten monetary policy in the US.

As is known, at the beginning of the month, the RB of Australia left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. As it was said in the accompanying statement, "the strengthening of the Australian dollar will complicate the adjustment of the economy", and "the preservation of rates unchanged corresponds to the goals in relation to GDP, inflation". As noted in the RBA, the conditions for doing business in the country have improved; however, there are other risks for the country's economy, which restrain the RBA from tightening monetary policy. Slow growth rates of wages and incomes of the population of Australia, increased unemployment and low, according to the RBA, the growth rate of the country's GDP will restrain the RBA from tightening monetary policy.

The volatility of commodity prices, in particular iron ore, one of Australia's major export commodities, and their propensity to decline against the expected strengthening of the US dollar, also represents one of the significant risks to the Australian economy, which still retains the raw material features in many respects.

The Australian dollar has grown today after the release of data showing a sharp increase in employment and a drop in the unemployment rate. Thus, the unemployment rate in May fell to 5.5% from 5.7% in April. The number of employees increased by 42,000 (with a growth by forecast of 10,000). The Australian labor market data was optimistic and supported the Australian dollar. Nevertheless, the divergence of the directions of the monetary policy of the Fed and other world central banks supports the US dollar. This situation can also be attributed to the pair AUD / USD. If the Fed plans to raise the interest rate, the RBA intends to adhere to the current rate at least until the second half of 2018.

We are waiting for today news from the US, which will increase volatility in pairs with the US dollar, including in the pair AUD / USD. A number of important macro data will be published between 12:30 and 14:00 (GMT), among which the weekly report of the US Department of Labor, containing data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. The forecast is expected to decrease to 242,000 versus 245,000 for the previous period, which should positively affect the US dollar. Also data on industrial production in the US for May and the use of production capacity will be published.

However, today and in the near future investors will still assess the results of the two-day meeting of the Fed and the increase in the interest rate in the US.


Support and resistance levels

Unlike other major currency pairs, the pair AUD / USD rose today during the Asian and European sessions, which was supported, among other things, by positive data from the Australian labor market published this morning.

Nevertheless, it is worth paying attention to the indications of the indicators OsMA and Stochastics, which on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts are deployed to short positions. On the general background of today's US dollar growth, the AUD / USD pair is likely to follow other dollar-denominated currency pairs. If in the course of the US trading session there are positive macro data on the US, it will probably become the trigger for the fall of the AUD / USD pair.

"First Swallow" will be a breakdown of the short-term support level 0.7580 (EMA50 on the 1-hour chart). The fall in the AUD / USD pair in this case may continue to the support level of 0.7540 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

The breakdown of the support level of 0.7514 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will confirm the scenario for the fall of the pair AUD / USD. The closest target in case of further decline of the pair will be the levels of 0.7495 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7460 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%).

The following targets in case of breakdown of this support level - 0.7330 (November, May lows), 0.7155 (May, December minima of 2016). The minimum wave of the last global decline of the pair since July 2014 is close to the level of 0.6830.

If the pair AUD / USD maintains its positive dynamics, its growth will continue with the targets of 0.7635, 0.7680, 0.7760 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.7840 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of the pair's decline since July 2014).

Support levels: 0.7580, 0.7540, 0.7514, 0.7495, 0.7460, 0.7445, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330, 0.7300

Resistance levels: 0.7635, 0.7680, 0.7700, 0.7760



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7570. Stop-Loss 0.7640. Take-Profit 0.7540, 0.7514, 0.7495, 0.7460, 0.7445, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330, 0.7300

Buy Stop 0.7640. Stop-Loss 0.7570. Take-Profit 0.7680, 0.7700, 0.7760

 

[TifiaFX]

XAG/USD: The dollar will build up positions

16/06/2017

Current dynamics

After on Wednesday the Fed announced an increase in the key interest rate, the dollar is steadily increasing its positions in the foreign exchange market. The index of the dollar WSJ rose above the level of 88.60. The central bank also made it clear that it could once again raise rates in 2017, which provided additional support to the dollar. Yesterday, ambiguous macro data on the United States came out. Although the weekly report on the number of claims for unemployment benefits showed a value of 237,000 against the forecast of 242,000, the labor market in the US looks quite stable.

As you know, on Wednesday the Fed raised the interest rate by 25 basis points, to the range of 1-1.25% and signaled the possibility of another rate hike near the end of the year. The US Central Bank also planned to reduce its balance by $ 4.5 trillion later this year.

Higher interest rates make dollar assets more attractive for investors, and lead to the sale of precious metals that do not bring interest income. At the same time, the costs of their acquisition and storage are growing.

The Fed raised the rate, despite the recent slowdown in consumer inflation in the US. The Fed also reiterated that it plans to cut its budget, which is about 4.5 trillion US dollars. According to some economists' estimates, the reduction of assets by $ 675 billion by 2019 will be equivalent to raising the key short-term interest rate of the Federal Reserve by a quarter of a percentage point. The process of reducing the balance of the Fed will also lead to an increase in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, which will be accompanied by a strengthening of the dollar and, again, a decline in the price of gold and silver. Precious metals are getting cheaper, even despite the continuing geopolitical tensions. Apparently, the prospect of another increase near the end of the year outweighs the chalice in favor of sellers and exerts additional pressure on the assets of the shelter, including silver.


Support and resistance levels

The price of silver has been steadily declining for the past two weeks. The XAG / USD pair broke through the important support levels of 17.35 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), 17.14 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), 16.85 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% corrective growth to the pair's decline since August 2016 and the level of 20.59), 16.05, 15.72 (low of 2016) and continues to decline in the descending channels on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts.

The lower boundary of the channels passes below the level of 15.72 (the minimums of 2016). This mark and will become a medium-term goal in case of further strengthening of the dollar in the foreign exchange market and a decline in the pair XAG / USD.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts went to the buyers’ side, signaling a possible short-term upward correction with targets near the levels of 16.85, 17.00. The immediate goal in the case of continued growth of the pair XAG / USD – are the levels of 17.35, 17.58 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%). Here, the upper line of the descending channel passes on the daily and weekly charts.

More distant medium-term goals in the case of further growth of the pair XAG / USD – are the levels of 17.86 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 18.17 (Fibonacci 50%), 18.48 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and April highs), 18.75 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).

Negative dynamics still prevails.

Support levels: 16.65, 16.20, 16.05, 15.72

Resistance levels: 16.85, 17.00, 17.14, 17.35, 17.58, 17.70, 17.86, 18.17, 18.48, 18.75



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 16.65. Stop-Loss 16.85. Take-Profit 16.20, 16.05, 15.72

Buy Stop 16.85. Stop-Loss 16.65. Take-Profit 17.00, 17.14, 17.35, 17.58, 17.70, 17.86, 18.17, 18.48, 18.75

 

[TifiaFX]

Brent: the number of drilling in the US rose again

19/06/2017



Current dynamics

The new trading week, the price of oil begins with a decline. Brent crude futures for ICE Futures fell to $ 47.23 a barrel during today's Asian session. Published on Friday, data from the American oil service company Baker Hughes showed that the number of oil drilling rigs in the US increased again last week, this time by six units to 747 units, which was the 22nd consecutive week of the increase.

Earlier, quotes of oil fell for four consecutive weeks. Despite the recent extension of the OPEC-Russia deal to reduce oil production for another 9 months, the excess supply in the oil market remains, and the world's oil reserves remain high. Oil prices since the beginning of this year have fallen by 17%, losing the positions won after the deal in late 2016.

The increase in oil production in the United States and other major oil-producing countries largely offset OPEC's efforts to limit oil production. After the entry into force of the OPEC agreement other countries as a whole reduced production by about 1.8 million barrels a day. During the same time, the US increased production by 750,000 barrels per day to 9.3 million barrels a day, the maximum since the summer of 2015. In fact, by the efforts of the US alone, more than a third of the reduced production was offset. And this apart from prey in other countries, such as Brazil, Libya, Canada.

Libya recently reported plans to increase oil production by 160,000 barrels per day. Previously, production in Libya at these facilities was suspended for almost two years. According to experts, by the end of July, daily oil production in Libya could grow to 1 million barrels.

There are all prerequisites to the fact that the volume of oil supply in the US will also increase more and more, further reducing the effect of the agreement within OPEC. Increasing the efficiency of oil production in the United States can reduce the cost of production to less than $ 40 per barrel against $ 63 in 2014.

Now investors expect further price reductions and are hedged against the potential drop in oil prices in the coming months below $ 41 per barrel.


Support and resistance levels

On a weekly chart, the price of Brent crude oil broke the lower border of the rising channel near the current level of 47.10 and develops a downward trend. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers. On the monthly chart the indicators also unfold to short positions.

At the beginning of the month the price broke through the important support levels of 51.35 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (the Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark) and is currently declining to The support level is 46.20 (the Fibonacci level is 50.0%). In case of consolidation below level 46.20, the upward trend of the price of Brent oil may be canceled.

The scenario for strengthening the price is connected with the breakdown of the local resistance level of 48.35 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and further growth within the rising channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which passes near the level of 62.00.

Nevertheless, negative sentiments continue to dominate the oil market, and against this background, oil prices remain under pressure with a tendency to further decline.

Support levels: 47.10, 46.20, 45.50

Resistance levels: 48.35, 50.00, 50.70, 51.35, 52.50, 53.00



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 47.10. Stop-Loss 47.80. Take-Profit 46.20, 45.50, 43.50

Buy Stop 47.80. Stop-Loss 47.10. Take-Profit 48.35, 50.00, 50.70, 51.35, 52.50, 53.00

 

[TifiaFX]

XAG/USD: precious metals are getting cheaper amid plans of the Fed

20/06/2017

Current dynamics


After last Wednesday the Fed announced an increase in the key interest rate, precious metals continued to go down in the foreign exchange market. The index of the dollar WSJ rose above the level of 88.60, to the level of 88.75 on Monday. The American Central Bank made it clear that it could once again raise rates in 2017, and also planned to reduce its balance by $ 4.5 trillion later this year.

According to the CME Group, futures on interest rates by the Fed show that the probability of another increase in Fed rates this year is about 47% (against 41% last week).

Rising rates usually support the dollar, making it more attractive to investors. Higher interest rates also lead to the sale of precious metals, which do not bring interest income. At the same time, the costs of their acquisition and storage are growing.

President of the Fed-New York William Dudley said on Monday that he was "very confident" of "long-term" economic growth in the US, which is the third longest in the history of the United States. American stock markets are growing steadily. The weakening of the hype surrounding US President Trump, the stabilization of the political situation in the Eurozone after the presidential and parliamentary elections in France, also contribute to reducing political risks and prices for precious metals.

Nevertheless, further strengthening of the dollar clearly lacks an additional positive momentum.

Some weaker than expected macro data from the US, some people question the Fed's determination to further tighten the monetary policy in the US. Perhaps, the statements of a number of representatives of the Federal Reserve scheduled for this week will once again give confidence to investors who are betting on the growth of the dollar.

For example, on Tuesday, scheduled speeches by the president of the Fed-Boston Eric Rosengren, executive director of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan and Deputy Chairman of the Federal Reserve Stanley Fischer. On Friday, Fed Governor Jerome Powell and FRS President St. Louis James Bullard will deliver a speech.


*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics



Support and resistance levels

Meanwhile, the price of silver has been steadily declining for the past two weeks. Today, with the opening of the trading day, the price of silver is growing, however, the negative trend continues. The pair XAG / USD broke through the important support levels of 17.33 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), 17.10 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 16.88 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of corrective growth to the pair decline since August 2016 and level of 20.60) and Continues to decline in the descending channels on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts with immediate targets near the levels of 16.15, 15.73 (low in 2016)

The lower boundary of the channels passes below the level of 15.73 (the minimums of 2016). This mark and will be the goal in case of further strengthening of the dollar in the foreign exchange market and the decline of the pair XAG / USD for the next 3-4 weeks.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts went to the buyers side, signaling a possible short-term upward correction with targets near the level of 16.88.

More distant goals in the case of the resumption of the growth of the pair XAG / USD - the levels of 17.33 (May highs), 17.59 (Fibonacci level 38.2%). Here, the top line of the descending channel passes on the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts.

More distant medium-term goals in the case of further growth of the XAG / USD pair - the levels of 18.18 (Fibonacci 50% and EMA200 on the weekly chart and April highs), 18.76 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).

So far, negative dynamics prevails. Support levels: 16.30, 16.15, 15.73

Resistance levels: 16.88, 17.10, 17.33, 17.59, 18.18, 18.76



Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 16.45. Stop-Loss 16.70. Take-Profit 16.25, 16.15, 15.73

Buy Stop 16.70. Stop-Loss 16.45. Take-Profit 17.00, 17.10, 17.33, 17.59, 18.17, 18.48, 18.76

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website [URL deleted]

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: The euro rose after the ECB meeting

21/07/2017

Current dynamics

Today the pair EUR / USD continued its growth, started on Thursday after the ECB meeting and press conference, at which ECB President Mario Draghi spoke. He was very careful in his statements and tried not to cause unnecessary emotions for traders who traded the euro.

"We studied the economic situation in the Eurozone and noticed the acceleration of economic growth with still slow inflation", Draghi said. He also noted that the future of the QE program during the two-day ECB meeting was not discussed, and "the discussion of this topic should begin in the fall".

Investors took the words of Draghi as a signal to buy the euro. The pair EUR / USD reached almost 2-year high at 1.1679 in the first half of the European session.

The growth of the pair was also promoted by Bloomberg's announcement that transactions in the companies belonging to the US president will be checked as part of the Trump investigation. This publication has increased the uncertainty surrounding the presidential administration and its plans to accelerate economic growth in the United States.

Meanwhile, investors continue to evaluate ECB President Mario Draghi's comments on Thursday and expect ECB plans to wind down the stimulus program to be released in September.

Meanwhile, according to the results of the poll published on Friday, in the next two years, inflation in the Eurozone will not reach the target level set by the ECB slightly below 2.0%.

Quarterly survey conducted by the ECB among economists showed that this year inflation will be 1.5%, in the next - 1.4%, and in 2019 - 1.6%. According to the latest data, for the year prices rose by only 1.3%. Forecasts for each year were lowered by 0.1 percentage points compared to the results of the previous poll, which was held in April.

Yesterday, Mario Draghi again stressed that the ECB leadership will be extremely cautious approach to the issue of curtailing its stimulus measures, focusing on the growth rate of inflation in the Eurozone.

And the more inflation will be below the target level, the further the ECB will postpone the decision on curtailing the stimulus program and raising the interest rate in the Eurozone. And this is a negative factor for the euro.

Today, at the end of the trading week, some investors will want to record profits in short positions on the US dollar, which may provoke some strengthening. It is likely that this may occur closer to the end of the US trading session.


Support and resistance levels

Yesterday, the pair EUR / USD broke through the key resistance level near the 1.1610 mark (EMA200 on the weekly chart), continuing to trade in the uplink on the daily chart.

The positive dynamics of the EUR / USD pair remains. In case of consolidation above resistance level 1.1610, the pair EUR / USD growth may continue. In this case, the target will be the resistance level 1.1785 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of the global fall from 1.3900).

The reverse scenario implies a decrease to the zone below the level of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%), which will increase the risks of return to the downtrend.

In the case of a breakdown of the short-term support level 1.1500 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 1-hour chart) and the acceleration of the downward dynamics, this scenario may develop.

Support levels: 1.1610, 1.1500, 1.1400, 1.1370, 1.1285, 1.1240, 1.1120, 1.1000

Resistance levels: 1.1650, 1.1700, 1.1785



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1610. Stop-Loss 1.1685. Take-Profit 1.1500, 1.1400, 1.1370, 1.1285, 1.1240, 1.1120

Buy Stop 1.1685. Stop-Loss 1.1610. Take-Profit 1.1700, 1.1785, 1.1800

 

[TifiaFX]

Brent: the plan to reduce the excess supply is not working.

24/07/2017

Current dynamics


On Monday in St. Petersburg is a meeting of some members of OPEC and countries outside the cartel. Saudi Energy Minister Khaled Al-Falih and Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak will chair this meeting. The risk of failure of a deal to reduce oil production is in full swing, although, according to the Saudi Energy Minister, the degree of observance of quotas for oil production in the history of OPEC is a record, and the total degree of compliance with oil production quotas for 6 months was 98%. It was assumed that the agreement would reduce world oil production by almost 1.8 million barrels a day and lead to a reduction in excess supply in the market. In recent days, there has been some recovery in prices against the weakening dollar. However, oil prices remain steadily low due to the continued oversupply.

It seems that the oil cartel still does not know how to deal with the US extraction, which remains outside the control of OPEC. Producers of oil shale in the US took advantage of the situation and, lowering the cost, increased production.

Quotations of Brent crude oil fell 2.5% to $ 48.06 per barrel on Friday, due to doubts about OPEC's ability to restore balance on the market.

According to the report of the oilfield service company Baker Hughes, presented on Friday, which is an important indicator of the activity of the oil sector of the US economy and significantly affects the quotes of oil prices, the number of active drilling platforms in the US is 764 units. The US increased production by 750,000 barrels a day to 9.3 million barrels a day, the highest since summer 2015. In fact, by the efforts of the US alone, more than a third of the reduced production was offset. According to OPEC representatives, one should not expect that some important actions will be taken Monday, although Nigeria, which, being a member of OPEC, remained outside the framework of the agreement, agreed to limit oil production to the level of 1.8 million barrels a day. Negotiations on limiting production in Libya and Nigeria are still underway.

It is likely that without additional measures, OPEC will not be able to reverse the situation with an excessive supply of oil. And against this background, oil prices will be subject to further decline. As long as the dollar stabilizes in the foreign exchange market, the pressure on oil prices will increase.


Support and resistance levels

The price of Brent crude continues, meanwhile, to move in the uplink on the daily chart near the important support level of 48.50 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts turned to long positions. If the price can consolidate above the short-term resistance level 49.10 (EMA50 on the daily chart), its growth may continue to the resistance level of 50.70 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, and the Fibonacci level of 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 Year to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00). Nevertheless, while the price is below the level of 50.70, the negative dynamics prevails. In case of breakdown of the 48.00 support level and renewal of the decline, the targets will be support levels of 47.70, 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), 44.50 (year lows). The more distant goal is the level 41.70 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% and the lower boundary of the descending channel on the weekly chart).

Only in the case of fixing the price above the level of 50.70 can we again consider medium-term long positions.

Support levels: 48.50, 48.00, 47.70, 46.20, 45.50, 44.50, 41.70

Levels of resistance: 49.10, 49.85, 50.70, 51.00



Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 48.40. Stop-Loss 49.20. Take-Profit 48.00, 47.70, 46.20, 45.50, 44.50, 41.70

Buy Stop 49.20. Stop-Loss 48.40. Take-Profit 49.60, 50.00, 50.70, 51.00

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: The dollar remains weak

25/07/2017

Current dynamics

"Core inflation is still slow and has not yet shown convincing signs of acceleration. Price pressure and wage growth are still restrained, "European Central Bank board member Yves Mersch said today in Singapore.

The rate of price growth in the Eurozone last month slowed to 1.3% per annum, being significantly below the target level of the ECB, which is just under 2%. Because of low inflation, the Eurozone economy still needs "very significant" incentive measures, according to Yves Mersch.

Today, the pair EUR / USD resumed its growth after the release of positive macroeconomic indicators at the beginning of the European session. So, the PMI index in the manufacturing sector of the Eurozone in July was 56.8, the PMI index for the services sector - 55.4, the composite PMI - 55.8.

Nevertheless, the growth of the EUR / USD pair was insignificant, as the dollar today stabilized in the foreign exchange market on the eve of the publication of tomorrow results of the Fed meeting. The index of the dollar WSJ, which reflects the value of the US dollar against the basket of 16 other currencies, slightly increased and amounted to 86.58.

At 18:00 (GMT) on Wednesday will publish the decision of the Fed on the interest rate in the US. It is widely expected that the rate will remain at the same level of 1.25%.

According to the latest data of the CME Group, the probability of an increase in the rate at the December meeting of the Federal Reserve is 48%.

From the US, we continue to receive weak macro data, against which the Fed will be very carefully approaching the issue of further tightening of monetary policy. It is likely that the dollar will remain under pressure until the domestic political situation in the United States normalizes and macroeconomic indicators start to arrive with strong indicators.

We are waiting for data from the USA today. CB Consumer Confidence is published at 14:00 (GMT). This indicator reflects the confidence of American consumers in the economic development of the country. A high level indicates an increase in the economy, while a low indicates stagnation. The previous value of the indicator is 118.9. The growth of the indicator will strengthen USD, and a decrease in value will weaken the dollar. It is expected that this indicator will come out with a value of 116.5, which will negatively affect the dollar when the forecast is confirmed.



Support and resistance levels

The pair EUR / USD continues to trade in the uplink on the daily chart, the upper limit of which runs near the level of 1.1720. The EUR / USD is trying to gain a foothold above the key support level 1.1610 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

The positive dynamics of the EUR / USD pair remains. The growth of the EUR / USD pair may continue. In this case, the immediate target will be the resistance level 1.1785 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline from 1.3900).

An alternative scenario for the decline will be related to the breakdown of the support level 1.1610. In case of breakdown of the support level 1.1560 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the pair EUR / USD may fall to support level 1.1285 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%), and in case of its breakdown, risks of return to the downtrend will grow.

However, in any case, while the EUR / USD pair is above the level of 1.1030 (EMA200 on the daily chart), a bullish trend remains.

Support levels: 1.1610, 1.1560, 1.1500, 1.1400, 1.1370, 1.1285, 1.1240, 1.1120, 1.1030

Levels of resistance: 1.1650, 1.1700, 1.1720, 1.1785



Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1590. Stop-Loss 1.1685. Take-Profit 1.1560, 1.1500, 1.1400, 1.1370, 1.1285, 1.1240, 1.1120

Buy Stop 1.1685. Stop-Loss 1.1590. Take-Profit 1.1700, 1.1720, 1.1785, 1.1800

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: US indices rose

26/07/2017



Current dynamics

The main US stock indices remain upward, gaining support from positive companies and soft rhetoric of the Fed representatives regarding plans for further tightening of monetary policy in the US.

By the end of trading on Tuesday, the DJIA index increased by 0.5%, to 21614 points, Nasdaq Composite grew by about 0.1%, S & P500 gained 0.3%. Earlier, the indices were supported by the growth of shares of American banks, which in the last month gained about 6% in the hope that a gradual increase in interest rates will lead to an increase in their loan proceeds.

The growth of the indices was also helped yesterday by the rising oil prices after Saudi Arabia, which is the world's largest oil exporter, said it would cut supplies in August.

The cautious rhetoric of Fed Chairman Janet Yellen and a restrained assessment of the likelihood of another rate hike this year by a number of representatives of the Fed have contributed to weakening investors' expectations of further tightening of monetary policy in the US. Given the Fed's concerns about low inflation, rates are also unlikely to be raised at the two next Fed meetings in September and October. Preserving the soft monetary policy of the Fed is beneficially reflected in the US stock market. On the other hand, the negative political situation in the US and the problems in implementing the electoral program to stimulate the US economy by the administration of the US president put pressure on the stock indices.

Today, investors will be focused on the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the Fed's decision on the interest rate. According to the CME Group, the probability of a rate hike at the July meeting is only 3%, in December - 54%. Investors will carefully study the statement of the Fed and look for signals about further plans to raise interest rates and reduce the balance of the Fed.


Support and resistance levels

In July, the DJIA index reached a new absolute maximum near the mark of 21680.0. At the same time, the DJIA index keeps positive dynamics and continues to grow in the ascending channels on the daily and weekly charts.

The positive dynamics of the DJIA is maintained as long as the index trades above the key support level 20400.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart, as well as the Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after rebounding in February this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year. Of this wave and the Fibonacci level of 0% is near the mark of 21536.0). The long positions in the DJIA index trade are still relevant.

Only in case of breakdown of the support level 21431.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) can we again return to consideration of short positions on the DJIA index with the aim near the levels 20400.0, 20300.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6%). And only in case of breakdown of the support level of 19380.0 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%) can we speak about the breakdown of the bullish trend.

Support levels: 21510.0, 21431.0, 21360.0, 21100.0, 20600.0, 20400.0, 20300.0

Resistance levels: 21680.0, 22000.0



Trading scenarios

Buy Stop 21690.0. Stop-Loss 21500.0. Take-Profit 21700.0, 21800.0, 22000.0

Sell Stop 21500.0. Stop-Loss 21690.0. Take-Profit 21360.0, 21100.0, 21000.0, 20600.0

 

[TifiaFX]

USD / CHF: the franc is down throughout the market

27/07/2017



Current dynamics

As you know, the Fed did not change its monetary policy at its July meeting and kept the key rate in the range of 1% -1.25%. The decision to keep the current monetary policy unchanged was unanimously adopted and was published yesterday at 18:00 (GMT).

The index of the dollar WSJ, reflecting the value of the dollar against the basket of 16 currencies, declined immediately after the publication of the Fed decision by 0.3%, to 86.42. The decision of the Fed was expected, however, the US dollar showed a large-scale decline in the foreign exchange market.

With the opening of today's trading day, the dollar continued to decline in the foreign exchange market.

However, it is worth paying attention to the fact that together with the dollar since the beginning of the European session, the Swiss franc also began to decline.

It was a safe haven, although it significantly lost this quality due to the NBS's actions in the foreign exchange market, the franc, along with gold and the yen, was actively bought recently due to the continuing political uncertainty in the US.

The Swiss National Bank has set a negative deposit rate, hoping that this will reduce the attractiveness of Swiss assets for international investors. Frack is usually strengthened during times of economic and political instability, thanks to Switzerland's strong economy, low levels of its debt and the stability of its political system. For the export-oriented Swiss economy, the exchange rate is especially important. A large share of its exports falls on the Eurozone, China, the United States and the rising franc leads to a rise in the price of Swiss goods.

After this week's meeting of the Fed, the dollar significantly weakened in the foreign exchange market, while purchases of assets-shelters, including francs, increased significantly.

The Swiss National Bank has traditionally stated that the Swiss franc is overbought, consistently advocating a soft monetary policy in the country.

As a result of the efforts of the Swiss National Bank aimed at curbing the growth of its currency, its foreign exchange reserves grew to about 700 billion francs (735 billion US dollars). However, investor purchases continue.

At the beginning of today's European session, there is a sharp decline in the franc, and to all major currencies, including against the yen, the dollar.

It is possible that the NBS conducts another currency intervention, which it never announces either before or after.

From the news for today we are waiting for the data from the USA. At 12:30 (GMT) a block of important macro data will be published: the weekly report of the US Department of Labor, containing data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, orders for durable goods excluding transport in the US in June. The result above the expected indicates a weak labor market, which has a negative impact on the US dollar. The forecast is expected to increase to 240,000 versus 233,000 for the previous period, which should negatively affect the dollar.

Support and resistance levels

After reaching new annual lows near the 0.9445 mark at the end of last week, the pair USD / CHF rose during the last 4 trading sessions. Today, the pair USD / CHF is also actively growing since the beginning of the European trading session.

At the beginning of the European session, the pair USD / CHF is trying to gain a foothold above the short-term resistance level 0.9540 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts turned to long positions.

However, in order to break the bearish trend, the USD / CHF pair needs, first of all, to gain a foothold above the levels of 0.9620 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.9650 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave from December 2016 and from the level 1.0300).

If the price falls below the 0.9540 level, the USD / CHF decline may resume within the descending channel on the daily chart. The lower boundary of this channel passes near the support level 0.9400. This level will become the goal in case of resumption of the pair USD / CHF decline.

The strong negative dynamics prevails. The main dynamics of the pair USD / CHF will still be connected with the dynamics of the dollar in the foreign exchange market. In the meantime, the dollar is weak.

Support levels: 0.9540, 0.9500, 0.9440, 0.9400

Resistance levels: 0.9620, 0.9650, 0.9670, 0.9690, 0.9730, 0.9840, 0.9875



Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 0.9610. Stop-Loss 0.9560. Take-Profit 0.9650, 0.9670, 0.9690, 0.9730, 0.9840, 0.9875

Sell Stop 0.9560. Stop-Loss 0.9610. Take-Profit 0.9540, 0.9500, 0.9440, 0.9400

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: Shares of Technology Sector Decreased

28/07/2017



Current dynamics

After the active growth the day before against the backdrop of a number of positive reports of companies about profits today

The main US stock indexes are declining. Yesterday, the S & P500 and Nasdaq 100, which became the leaders in growth this year, held their worst day in three weeks.

The sale of shares in technology companies pulled down not only the US, but also European and Asian stock indices. The European StoxxEurope600 Index dropped 0.9% at the beginning of trading. Shares of the US Company Amazon.com Inc., for example, yesterday fell significantly as the company reported a 77% drop in quarterly profits. Korean Kospi lost 1.7% during the Asian session, while the Australian S&P/ASX200 fell 1.4%.

Also, the dynamics of US indices were affected by the next setbacks of the US presidential administration. Attempts by the US Republican Party to repeal the Law on Affordable Medical Services have failed: a package of proposals to refuse part of the provisions of this law from 2010 was not supported in the Senate.

The US Department of Commerce today (12:30 GMT) will publish a preliminary estimate of GDP for the 2-nd quarter. It is expected that GDP in the US grew by 2.6% in the second quarter. If the data coincides with the forecast, they will confirm the economic recovery after the deterioration of the situation in the first three months of this year. This will support the stock indices. And vice versa. If the GDP data and the inflation indicators published simultaneously for the 2nd quarter are weaker than the forecast values, the stock indices will receive another portion of the negative and are likely to continue their decline.


Support and resistance levels

With the opening of today's trading day, the S & P500 index declined, continuing to develop short-term downward dynamics.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, 4-hour and 1-hour charts turned to short positions, indicating a downward correction after many days of growth.

The price broke through the short-term support level 2467.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 on the 4-hour chart).

If the negative dynamics will increase, then an additional reduction of the index to the support levels 2452.0 (EMA144), 2445.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and the bottom line of the uplink on the daily chart) is possible. Deeper decline in the index is - to the support levels of 2405.0 (June and July lows), 2390.0, 2355.0, near which the bottom line of the rising channel passes on the weekly chart.

In general, the medium-term positive dynamics of the index remains. The index is growing, starting from February 2016 and trading in the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts.

While the price is above 2338.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 2325.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to growth since February 2016), the positive dynamics of the index remains. In the case of the breakdown of the resistance level of 2481.0 (the highs of July and the year), the growth of the index will resume.

Support levels: 2452.0, 2445.0, 2405.0, 2390.0, 2355.0, 2338.0, 2325.0

Resistance levels: 2467.0, 2481.0



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2461.0. Stop-Loss 2474.0. Objectives 2452.0, 2445.0, 2405.0, 2390.0, 2355.0, 2338.0, 2325.0

Buy Stop 2474.0. Stop-Loss 2461.0. Objectives 2481.0, 2490.0, 2500.00

 

[TifiaFX]

Brent: the price of oil is growing for the sixth day in a row

31/07/2017

Current dynamics

The report of the oil service company Baker Hughes, released on Friday, according to which the number of active drilling platforms in the US amounted to 766 units (against 764 last week), did not prevent the growth of oil prices. Brent oil was traded at the end of the trading day on Friday at a price of $ 52.21 per barrel, $ 0.7 higher than the opening price of Friday. In total, over the past week, the price for Brent crude rose $ 4 from $ 48.00 per barrel. A sharp decline in oil and oil products in the US last week (7.2 million barrels), as well as a large dollar weakening, contributes to the growth of oil prices.

The meeting of some OPEC members and countries outside the cartel last week in St. Petersburg also left an imprint on the dynamics of oil prices. Saudi Arabia's oil minister Khaled Al-Falih said at the meeting that Saudi Arabia, the world leader in oil exports, intends to reduce oil exports in August to 6.6 million barrels per day from 7.46 million barrels a day recorded in 2016. Nigeria, a member of the cartel, but exempt from participation in the deal, also expressed its intention to limit production at 1.8 million barrels per day.

If Saudi Arabia really further reduces oil exports, and other OPEC member countries follow its example, oil prices can restore the upward trend. This statement is also valid against the background of the weakness of the dollar. As long as the dollar stabilizes in the foreign exchange market, commodity prices, including oil, may again be under pressure.

Some skepticism about the effectiveness of OPEC's actions to reduce oil production is still valid, because within OPEC there may be a split among the countries participating in the agreement.


Support and resistance levels

With the opening of today's trading day and at the beginning of today's European session, the price for Brent crude is close to $ 52.30 per barrel, trading in a narrow range.

In the foreign exchange market there is a correction of the dollar after its strong decline last week. There is no important news on the oil market today, and an upward correction in the dollar may affect oil prices.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily and weekly charts recommend long positions. However, on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts, the indicators turned to short positions, signaling an overdue downward correction after a strong six-day price increase.

The price broke through an important level of 50.70 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart, and the Fibonacci level of 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute lows of 2016 near the 27.00 mark), above which a positive dynamics. Preferred long positions with a target at 54.75 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and May highs).

In the case of the breakdown of the support level of 50.70 and the resumption of the decline, the targets will be support levels of 49.70, 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (Fibonacci 50%), 44.50 (lows of the year). The more distant goal is the level 41.70 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% and the lower boundary of the descending channel on the weekly chart).

Support levels: 52.00, 51.00, 50.70, 50.00, 49.70, 48.75, 48.00, 47.70, 46.20, 45.50, 44.50, 41.70

Levels of resistance: 53.00, 54.75



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 51.90. Stop-Loss 52.60. Take-Profit 51.00, 50.70, 50.00, 49.70, 48.75, 48.00

Buy Stop 52.60. Stop-Loss 51.90. Take-Profit 53.00, 54.00, 54.75

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: unemployment in New Zealand remains relatively low

01/08/2017

Current dynamics

Today at 21:45 (GMT) will be published data from the labor market of New Zealand. It is expected that unemployment in New Zealand declined in the second quarter by 0.1% to 4.8%.

At levels below 5% unemployment in the country was in the period from 2003 to 2008. Nevertheless, unemployment of 4.9% is a significant improvement compared to the peak of 6.7% achieved after the financial crisis. The decrease in the unemployment rate and the increase in the labor force share in the total population (70.7% in the second quarter versus 70.6% in the first quarter) indicate a decrease in available resources in the labor market, which may finally lead to an increase in the level of salaries in the country, Stimulating domestic demand and GDP growth. If the data is confirmed, this will have a positive effect on the New Zealand currency.

Also worth paying attention to the publication at 14:00 (GMT) of the price index for dairy products. The milk auction that was held two weeks ago indicated another growth in world prices for dairy products. The price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of + 0.2%. The main export item of the country is dry milk. The next increase in prices will support the New Zealand currency. The New Zealand dollar in the NZD / USD pair also receives support from the declining US currency and positive data coming from China. China is the largest trade and economic partner of New Zealand and a buyer of its primary commodities, including dairy products. Strong macroeconomic indicators from China have a positive effect on the quotations of the New Zealand currency.

Today, investors will also monitor the publication during the period 12:30 - 14:00 (GMT) of the important US inflation figures for June (personal income and personal consumption expenditure), as well as the ISM business activity index in the manufacturing sector of the US economy, which is an important An indicator of the state of the American economy as a whole. The result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the USD, below 50 - as negative for the US dollar. Forecast: 56.5 in July (against 57.8 in June). If the indices come out with better indicators than the forecast, the US dollar will strengthen on the foreign exchange market.


Support and resistance levels

As a result of the three-month rally, the NZD / USD pair reached a new annual maximum and a resistance level of 0.7550 last week (Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, the low of December 2016). The pair NZD / USD very technically rebounded in mid-May from the support level of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%). So what next?

The NZD / USD pair is in a global downtrend since July 2014. A break of 0.7550 would mean the end of the global bearish trend. Nevertheless, the current growth of the NZD / USD pair is largely due to the general weakening of the US dollar.

Back in June, when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates unchanged at 1.75%, RBNZ Governor Graham Wheeler noted that "monetary policy will remain soft for a significant period". Now investors assess the prospects for the divergence of the directions of the monetary policy of the Fed and the RBNZ. If the Fed still confirms the intention to raise the rate in December, and the US will begin to receive positive macroeconomic data and the internal political crisis subsides, the US dollar will quickly regain its lost positions.

Despite the fact that the indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the weekly and monthly charts recommend long positions, on the daily, 4-hour charts, the indicators moved to the side of sellers, signaling an overdue downward correction.

While the NZD / USD pair is above the key support levels of 0.7275 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 0.7240 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2%), its positive dynamics persists. In case of a breakdown at the level of 0.7240, the NZD / USD pair will accelerate its decline to the support level of 0.7150 (EMA200 on the daily chart). The more distant target of the decline is the support level of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and the lower limit of the range located between the levels of 0.7550 and 0.6860). At the level of 0.6860 are also the minimums of December 2016 and May 2017.

Support levels: 0.7455, 0.7335, 0.7275, 0.7240, 0.7150, 0.7100

Resistance levels: 0.7550



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7450. Stop-Loss 0.7520. Take-Profit 0.7335, 0.7275, 0.7240, 0.7150, 0.7100

Buy Stop 0.7520. Stop-Loss 0.7450. Take-Profit 0.7550, 0.7600

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Inflationary pressure in the Eurozone remains weak

02/08/2017

Current dynamics

According to the data published yesterday, the Eurozone's GDP in the second quarter increased by 0.6% (+ 2.1% in annual terms against + 1.9% in the previous quarter). Quarterly growth rates have become the highest since March 2015. This GDP growth indicates that the Eurozone has overcome the consequences of the financial crises of the last decade. The euro reacted rather weakly to the publication of data, and during the yesterday's trading day, the EUR / USD fell.

Today, the dollar continues to recover in the foreign exchange market. However, against the euro, the dollar declined during today's Asian session. According to official data published today, the producer price index (PPI) of the Eurozone in June compared with May fell by 0.1%. The decline in producer prices in the Eurozone was noted following the results of three of the last four months. Compared to June last year, the index rose by 2.5%, but this was the weakest growth in 2017.

In response to the publication, the pair EUR / USD declined, but remains positive. Suddenly, the strong recovery of the Eurozone economy in the first half of the year strengthened expectations of the curtailment of the QE program. In July, ECB President Mario Draghi called the restoration of the region's economy "strong" and promised that in the autumn the central bank's leaders would decide the fate of the bond purchase program, which ends in December. It is expected that the program will be extended for 2018, but its volumes will be reduced.

At the same time, Draghi once again reminded that the level of inflation will be the basis for making a decision to reduce the stimulus program for the economy. It is necessary to be "consistent and patient", so that inflation grows to a target level of just below 2%, according to Draghi. Strengthening the same inflationary pressure in the coming months seems unlikely.

Today we are waiting for the publication (12:15 GMT) of the employment report from ADP, which reflects the change in the number of employees in the US in July. Reducing the result weakens the US dollar. The growth is expected to reach 185 000 (against 158 000 in June), which should support the dollar.

Also today (16:00 and 19:30 GMT) are key representatives of the Fed, members of the FOMC Loretta Meister and John Williams. Probably, they will again pay attention to the low level of inflation and will express their opinion that the Fed should be delayed with another increase in the interest rate in the US.

Nevertheless, the Fed can still raise the rate again in December, despite the low level of inflation. As long as a strong labor market supports moderate wage growth, prospects for further tightening of monetary policy remain. In this regard, data on US employment on Friday may be very important.



Support and resistance levels

Today the pair EUR / USD has reached a new annual maximum near the level of 1.1865. The pair EUR / USD maintains positive momentum above support levels 1.1785 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline of the pair from 1.3900 level), 1.1610 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

In case of further growth and breakdown of resistance level 1.1865, the pair EUR / USD may go to the long-term target 1.2180 (50% Fibonacci level). In fact, this will mean the cancellation of the global downward trend, which began in May 2014.

The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily and weekly charts still recommend long positions.

In the alternative scenario and in case of breakdown of the support level 1.1610, the decline may accelerate inside the uplink on the daily chart, up to the level of 1.1490 (the bottom line of the uplink on the daily chart and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). In case of breakdown of the support level 1.1285 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%), risks of return to the downtrend will grow significantly.

Support levels: 1.1785, 1.1715, 1.1685, 1.1610, 1.1560, 1.1490, 1.1400, 1.1370, 1.1285, 1.1240, 1.1120, 1.1050

Resistance levels: 1.1865, 1.1900, 1.2000, 1.2180



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1790. Stop-Loss 1.1870. Take-Profit 1.1715, 1.1685, 1.1650, 1.1610, 1.1560, 1.1500, 1.14400, 1.1370, 1.1285, 1.1240, 1.1120

Buy Stop 1.1870. Stop-Loss 1.1790. Take-Profit 1.1900, 1.2000, 1.2180

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: gold is falling in price

03/08/2017

Current dynamics

The focus of traders today is the meeting of the Bank of England. As expected, the central bank of Great Britain will keep the key interest rate unchanged after the Bank of England lowered the rate to a record low of 0.25% one year ago. Due to weak inflation and modest economic growth, most representatives of the Central Bank are expected to continue to oppose higher rates. The decision on the rates will be published at 11:00 (GMT), and at 11:30 (GMT) a press conference will begin, during which the Bank of England's head Mark Carney will outline the bank's position on the future of monetary policy in the UK, Current economic situation in the country. In the period from 11:00 to 12:00 (GMT), a surge in volatility is expected not only in pound trade, but throughout the financial market.

After this, the attention of traders will shift to tomorrow's publication (12:30 GMT) of data from the labor market in the US for July. The dollar recovered slightly in the foreign exchange market during the Asian session and after the report on the change in the number of employees (from ADP) was published yesterday. This report indicated an improvement in the labor market situation in the US in July (+178,000 new employees in the private sector of the US against growth of 191,000 in June and a forecast of +185,000). The index of the dollar WSJ rose in the morning by 0.1%.

Also today, it is worth paying attention to the publication at 13:45 and 14:00 (GMT) of the US data (business activity indices from Markit and ISM in the services sector for July and the level of production orders in June). If the data comes out with positive values, it will be of great importance for the dollar on the eve of tomorrow's publication of data from the labor market in the United States.

It is expected that unemployment fell by 0.1% in July to 4.3%, while the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy increased by 183 000 in July. These are very strong indicators.

As the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Loretta Mester stated yesterday, one should adhere to the planned course of monetary policy, The basic fundamental indicators of economic growth remain strong, which speaks in favor of strong economic growth next year. "I think it will be necessary to further curtail soft policy by gradually raising the rates for federal funds", Mester added.

The prospect of raising rates puts pressure on prices for precious metals and stimulates dollar purchases. At the same time, the domestic political uncertainty in the US, connected with the difficulties in implementing President Donald Trump's presidential campaign to stimulate the US economy, contradictory indicators of the US economic indicators put pressure on the dollar and support the gold quotes. Gold does not bring interest income. But in periods of a soft monetary policy, the demand for gold, which has the status of a safe haven during periods of political instability, is growing.




Support and resistance levels

At the beginning of the month on the daily chart of the pair XAU/USD formed "Doge" and 2 more consecutively decreasing candles. The pair XAU / USD could not break the upper boundary of the descending channel on the daily chart near the level of 1273.00 and is deployed inside the channel.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour and daily charts went to the side of sellers. In case of an increase in negative dynamics and breakdown of support levels of 1248.00 (the Fibonacci level of 50% correction to the wave of decline from July 2016 and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart),

1242.00 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144 on the daily chart), the pair XAU / USD will again return to the downtrend with immediate targets at support levels 1229.00, 1220.00 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 1205.00 (July lows).

In case of resumption of growth and after the breakdown of resistance levels 1273.00, 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), the pair XAU / USD will go to the level of 1295.00 (highs of June and the year and the upper line of the range located between the levels 1185.00 and 1295.00).

Support levels: 1260.00, 1248.00, 1242.00, 1229.00, 1220.00, 1205.00, 1185.00

Levels of resistance: 1273.00, 1277.00, 1295.00



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1255.00. Stop-Loss 1267.00. Take-Profit 1248.00, 1242.00, 1229.00, 1220.00, 1205.00, 1185.00

Buy Stop 1267.00. Stop-Loss 1255.00. Take-Profit 1273.00, 1277.00, 1295.00