Tifia Daily Market Analytics

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: US stock indexes continue to grow

01/09/2017

Current dynamics

Major US stock indexes began the month with a slight increase. Investors are waiting for a monthly report on the US labor market, which will be published at 12:30 (GMT). This report is extremely important in assessing the prospects for the dollar and the US stock market, because it characterizes the stability of the US economy, the largest in the world. On Thursday, US stock indexes rose thanks to a series of positive macro data. According to a report published by the US Department of Commerce on Thursday, the costs and incomes of Americans grew quite rapidly in July.

The index of prices for personal consumption expenditure (PCE) increased by 1.4% compared to the same period of the previous year. The income of Americans in July rose by 0.4% compared to June, which was the strongest growth since February. Americans have a large amount of cash for the next few months ahead, which could have a positive impact on GDP growth.

Data from ADP for August, which characterize the level of employment in the private sector of the US economy, also came out better than the forecast, indicating that the labor market is approaching full employment.

And at the same time, the US economy has a controversial situation: the growth of consumer spending in combination with the fall in unemployment indicates a fairly rapid and stable economic growth. However, inflation still remains slow, below the target level of the Fed in 2%.

In the data block from the US labor market, investors are particularly interested in the wage growth indicator, which will be used to judge the prospects for monetary policy in the coming months. Although unemployment is low and job creation is stable, wages have been rising at a moderate pace for a long time.

In view of the low inflation of space, the Federal Reserve has little to raise rates.

According to futures on federal funds, which track the CME Group, investors estimate the probability of a rate hike by the end of December at 37%.

And yet, the overall state of the US economy is encouraging, prompting investors to buy high-yielding high-risk assets. This is evidenced by the multi-month bullish trend of the US stock market.

And, if today's publication of data from the US labor market is also positive, close to the forecast values, the US stock indexes will continue to grow.


Support and resistance levels

DJIA maintains positive dynamics and continues to grow in the uplink on the daily chart, striving for the level of 22177.0 (the highs of the year and August).

Long positions are relevant. Only in case of breakdown of the important support levels 21800.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 21700.0 (EMA50 and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart), we can return to consideration of short positions on the DJIA.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily charts are on the buyers side.

In case of breakdown of the support level 21700.0, the target of the decrease may be support levels 20750.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 20630.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after recovery in February this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year. The maximum of this wave, and the Fibonacci level of 0%, is near the mark of 22177.0). Levels 20750.0, 20630.0, thus, are key to long-term bullish trend of DJIA.

Support levels: 21800.0, 21700.0, 21500.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20750.0, 20630.0

Resistance levels: 22060.0, 22177.0, 22300.0


Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 22050.0. Stop-Loss 21950.0. Take-Profit 22177.0, 22300.0, 22350.0

Sell Stop 21950.0. Stop-Loss 22050.0. Take-Profit 21800.0, 21700.0, 21500.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20750.0

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: amid talks on Brexit

04/09/2017

Current dynamics

The GDP growth in the UK this year has significantly slowed. Economic growth in the 1st and 2nd quarters was half that of the last three months of 2016.

High inflation, exceeding the target level of the Bank of England, continues to reduce the disposable income of the British, which reduces domestic demand. The British economy, largely dependent on domestic consumption, grew by only 0.3% in the second quarter (+ 0.2% in the first quarter). In a situation of shrinking domestic demand, British companies will have to increase capital investment.

The decline in consumer spending and the slowdown in the UK economy, which are taking place against the background of Brexit, will help the Bank of England continue to adhere to extra soft monetary policy. As you know, last summer the Bank of England lowered the interest rate to a record level of 0.25%, the lowest for the last 300 years.

The slowdown in the UK economy, the protracted Brexit talks and the unclear prospects for the monetary policy of the UK central bank continue to have a negative impact on the pound quotes. It is likely that the pound will remain under pressure at the beginning of this week before the debate in parliament on Thursday.

On Friday (11:30 GMT + 3), the National Statistical Office of Great Britain will publish July data on industrial production and manufacturing in the manufacturing industry, which will allow us to assess the state of the British economy at the beginning of the third quarter. It is expected that the data will come with almost zero growth, which will also negatively affect the quotes of the pound.

Today, most of the US financial markets are closed due to the celebration of Labor Day. The low activity of traders and low trading volumes in the foreign exchange market are expected. The growth of volatility in the foreign exchange market will begin tomorrow, when during the Asian session (02:01 GMT + 3) the British Retail Consortium (BRC) will publish a report on retail sales for August, and at 07:30 (GMT + 3) the RBA will publish a decision on interest rate in Australia.


Support and resistance levels

Despite continued pressure on the pound, the pair GBP / USD remains positive, trading above support levels 1.2935 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart), 1.2860 (EMA200 on the daily chart) in the uplink on the daily chart.

Breakdown of the local resistance level 1.2980 will create the prerequisites for the recovery of the mid-term upward correction trend. The closest target in this case will be the resistance level 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the decline in the GBP / USD pair in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200). Levels of 1.3300 (the upper limit of the channel on the weekly chart), 1.3460 (July and September highs) will be the next growth target.

A fall below support level 1.2860 will strengthen the risk of GBP / USD returning to a downtrend.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly, monthly charts were deployed to short positions.

Support levels: 1.2935, 1.2912, 1.2860, 1.2800

Resistance levels: 1.2980, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2910. Stop-Loss 1.2990. Take-Profit 1.2860, 1.2765, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2590, 1.2550, 1.2365

Buy Stop 1.2990. Stop-Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: rebound from the support level of 0.7165

05/09/2017

Current dynamics

After yesterday, marked by sluggish dynamics and low volumes, today we see an increase in volatility and the resumption of a decline in the US dollar.

The continuing tension in the Asia-Pacific region continues to stimulate purchases of assets-shelters, such as gold, yen, and franc.

There is also an increase in the prices of oil and other commodities, along with which the quotations of commodity currencies are growing.

The New Zealand dollar is also growing today against the US dollar, despite a number of fundamental factors. This is the continuing commitment of the RBNZ to conducting soft monetary policy, the uncertainty surrounding the elections in New Zealand scheduled for September 23, geopolitical tensions in the region due to the continuing provocations by North Korea against the US and Japan.

For a stable recovery in the New Zealand economy and rising inflation, "a lower New Zealand dollar rate is needed", the RBNZ said recently.

We are waiting for today data from the auction of dairy products, the publication of which is scheduled for the period after 14:00 (GMT). The price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out last time with a value of -0.4%. If the prices for milk powder decrease again, it will have a negative impact on the New Zealand dollar.



Support and resistance levels

Today, NZD / USD is trading in the range between support levels of 0.7165 (EMA200), 0.7190 (EMA144 on the daily chart). A breakthrough in one direction or another may determine the direction of further medium-term movement of the NZD / USD pair.

The fastening above the levels of 0.7240 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, the minimums of December 2016), 0.7270 (EMA200 on 4-hour, weekly charts) will confirm the return of the upward dynamics.

In the alternative scenario and in case of a breakdown of the level 0.7165, a further decline to the support levels 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and the lower limit of the range located between the levels of 0.7550 and 0.6860) is possible. A break at the level of 0.6860 will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and a return to the downward trend.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly charts recommend short positions.

Support level: 0.7165

Resistance levels: 0.7190, 0.7240, 0.7270, 0.7300, 0.7320, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7170. Stop-Loss 0.7210. Take-Profit 0.7160, 0.7100, 0.7000, 0.6860

Buy Stop 0.7210. Stop-Loss 0.7170. Take-Profit 0.7240, 0.7270, 0.7300, 0.7320, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: US stock markets remain under pressure

06/09/2017

Current dynamics

Received yesterday, during the US trading session, weak macro data on the US contributed to a sharp intraday decline in major US stock indexes.

The US Department of Commerce on Tuesday reported that production orders in July fell 3.3% compared to June, while orders for durable goods fell by 6.8% compared to the previous month.

The aggravation of geopolitical tension after North Korea's nuclear tests on Sunday, as well as the new hurricane "Irma" that is approaching Florida, also have a negative impact on US stock markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average index fell by 234 points yesterday, the S & P500 - by 18 points, Nasdaq Composite fell by 59 points.

Shares of financial companies became outsiders in the S & P500. So, JP Morgan shares lost 2.4% yesterday, Bank of America - 3.2%. Shares of technological company United Technologies in the structure of DJIA on Tuesday fell by 5.7%.

The ICE dollar index closed Tuesday at around 92.25, the lowest level since August 29.

Today, US stock markets remain under pressure. Again, the increased demand for assets-seekers - yen, franc, gold. Gold futures on COMEX are traded with an increase of 0.3%, at 1340 dollars per troy ounce, reaching an annual maximum.

Recently, trades are taking place with sharp fluctuations. Investors are increasingly worried about how long the bull market will last. While the market outlook is generally positive, there are many risk factors. This is the preservation, and even growth, of the geopolitical confrontation between the United States and North Korea, the domestic political problems in the US and the White House, the weak macro data coming from the US. In the United States, Hurricane Harvey has not yet recovered from Hurricane Hurricane as he races on Florida, another powerful hurricane, Irma, is approaching.

Thus, the propensity of investors to buy risky assets noticeably decreases, which is reflected in the decline in major US stock indexes.



Support and resistance levels

Today, the DJIA index is trading in a range between two important levels, the breakthrough of which can determine the direction of the further movement of DJIA in the short term. In case of breakdown of the support level 21720.0 (EMA50 and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart), one can consider the possibility of opening medium-term short positions.

The target of the decrease may be support levels 20810.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 20630.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after recovery in February of this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year.The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level 0% is near the mark 22177.0).

Breakdown of key support levels 20750.0, 20630.0 significantly strengthens the risks of completion of the long-term bullish trend of DJIA.

At the same time, DJIA maintains positive long-term dynamics, trading in the uplink on the daily chart, the upper limit of which passes through the mark of 22350.0. Here, the upper border of the channel passes on the weekly chart. In case of the breakdown of the nearest strong short-term resistance level of 21810.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), the growth of DJIA will resume, and the targets will be the levels of 22060.0, 2177.0 (highs of the year and August), 22350.0.

Support levels: 21720.0, 21500.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20810.0, 20630.0

Resistance levels: 21810.0, 22060.0, 22177.0, 22350.0



Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 21850.0. Stop-Loss 21690.0. Take-Profit 22060.0, 22177.0, 22350.0

Sell Stop 21690.0. Stop-Loss 21850.0. Take-Profit 21500.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20810.0, 20630.0

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: focus on ECB decisions

07/09/2017

Current dynamics

According to the data published on Thursday, the growth of the Eurozone economy in the second quarter (in annual terms) was 2.3% (the forecast was + 2.2%). The data show that the economy of the Eurozone grew faster than in early 2017.

In the 1st quarter, according to GDP growth, the Eurozone outperformed the US, and in the second quarter, growth accelerated.

This data came out on the eve of the publication of the ECB's decision on the interest rate (at 11:45 GMT). It is expected that the rates will remain at the same level. A little later (12:30 GMT) the ECB press conference will begin.

It is likely that following the meeting of the Governing Council, the president of the central bank, Mario Draghi, will signal that the bank will begin to reduce the program for the purchase of assets, the amount of which is 2.3 trillion euros.

Prospects for the growth of the Eurozone economy are becoming increasingly positive. Nevertheless, the inflation rate remains well below the target level set by the central bank.

ECB executives decide what to do with the asset purchase program in conditions of low inflation and the limited availability of available for purchase assets on the stock market. The ECB may postpone a decision on this issue.

Nevertheless, the euro is growing on expectations of the ECB's statement about the curtailment of the incentive program. The euro is still trading below the five-year average. At the same time, there are positive changes in the Eurozone economy.

Investors' opinions as to whether the ECB will today indicate the possibility of curtailing the QE program were divided approximately 50/50.


Support and resistance levels

The pair EUR / USD continues to grow in the uplink on the daily chart, the upper limit of which runs near the 1.2100 mark.

In the period from 11:45 to 13:00 (GMT), a surge in volatility is expected across the financial market. The reaction of the market to Mario Draghi's speech can be unpredictable. And so far it is unclear what Mario Draghi will say, but he can develop the markets.

The lower boundary of the channel passes through the support level 1.1780 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the corrective growth from the minimums reached in February 2015 in the last wave of the global decline of the pair from the level of 1.3900).

If Mario Draghi declares the start and the deadline for the curtailment of the QE program, the euro will become sharply stronger on the foreign exchange market. In this case, the targets for the EUR / USD growth will be the levels of 1.2050 (July 2012 low), 1.2100.00, 1.2180 (Fibonacci level of 50% corrective growth from the minimums reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline from 1.3900), 1.2370 (EMA200 on the monthly chart).

If the ECB postpones the solution of the issue or extends the terms of QE, the euro will fall under pressure.

The breakdown of the support level 1.1780 will create prerequisites for a deeper decline in EUR / USD and the opening of short positions. So far, long positions on EUR / USD are relevant.

Support levels: 1.1900, 1.1880, 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1720, 1.1670, 1.1620

Resistance levels: 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2070, 1.2100, 1.2180



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1930. Stop-Loss 1.2010. Take-Profit 1.1900, 1.1880, 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1720, 1.1670, 1.1620

Buy Stop. Stop-Loss 1.1930. Take-Profit 1.2050, 1.2070, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2370

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/JPY: the dollar continues to fall

08/09/2017

Current dynamics

The dollar continues to decline. Concerns about geopolitical risks and natural disasters in the US, weak economic data and doubts about the prospects for raising the Federal Reserve's interest rates helped the dollar to fall to its lowest level for more than two and a half years.

The ICE dollar index today decreased by 0.5%, reaching a minimum of 33 months.

The fall in the USD / JPY began in July, as expectations for new stimulus measures in the US weakened, including lower taxes and increased spending on infrastructure. Recently, increased geopolitical concerns about the testing of weapons in North Korea, forced investors to buy more reliable currencies such as gold, franc, yen. This Saturday in North Korea will be the anniversary of the founding of the state. A year ago, on that day, the military tested nuclear weapons.

History can repeat itself. But this time it could be like the next launch of the missile towards Japan, as well as a test explosion of nuclear weapons in the DPRK.

Yesterday, US President Donald Trump again cautioned against North Korea, saying that "North Korea behaves badly and needs to be stopped". "The military actions against North Korea - this is one of the options for the development of events", according to Trump. Military confrontation "definitely can happen".

The dollar today fell by 0.7% against the yen and by 0.6% against the Swiss franc. Gold prices rose by 0.7% to 1,357.00 dollars per ounce.

Investors are also worried that the hurricanes "Harvey" and "Irma" may negatively affect the economic performance of the United States in the short term. This may also have a negative impact on expectations of an increase in FRS interest rates. The increase in interest rates, as a rule, provides support to the currency. However, a number of Fed officials have expressed doubts about the need for such a step on the part of the Fed on the background of low inflation in the US.

The decline in the dollar is also due to a decrease in the yield of US government bonds. Today, the yield of 10-year US government bonds continued to decline and, according to Tradeweb, fell to 2,027% from the level of 2,061%, recorded on Thursday.

Against the backdrop of a large-scale decline in the dollar and growth in demand for safe haven assets, the US dollar / Japanese yen has reached a new 10-month low, breaking through the 108.00 level.

It is likely that today, at the end of the trading week, many investors will want to fix profit in short positions on the dollar, which will cause its corrective growth. Nevertheless, the negative attitude to the dollar persists. Probably further decline in the dollar in the short term, including in the pair USD / JPY.


Technical analysis

Since July, the active decline of the pair USD / JPY has started, which broke through the key support levels of 110.90 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), 110.10 (Fibonacci level 38.2% correction to the pair growth since August of last year and 99.90 level), 108.80 (EMA200, EMA144 on the weekly chart).

A powerful negative impulse, based on a large-scale weakening of the dollar, pushes the pair USD / JPY towards support levels of 106.50 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%), 105.00 (EMA200, EMA144 on the monthly chart).

Apparently, only near the level of 105.00 it is possible to stop the fall of the USD / JPY.

An alternative scenario involves the return of the USD / JPY in the zone above the level of 108.80 and the resumption of growth with targets at levels 110.10, 110.90.

Nevertheless, the fundamental factor speaks in favor of the further fall of the USD / JPY.

Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastics) on 4-hour, daily, weekly, monthly charts also give signals for sales.

Support levels: 107.00, 106.50, 105.00

Resistance levels: 108.10, 108.80, 110.10, 110.90, 113.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00



Trading recommendations

Buy Stop. Stop Loss 107.40. Take-Profit 108.80, 110.10, 110.90

Sell in the market. Stop Loss. Take-Profit 107.00, 106.50, 105.00

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CHF: on the eve of the NBS meeting

11/09/2017

Current dynamics

The Swiss National Bank has traditionally stated that the Swiss franc is overbought, consistently advocating a soft monetary policy in the country.

As a result of the efforts of the Swiss National Bank aimed at curbing the growth of its currency, its foreign exchange reserves grew to about 700 billion francs (735 billion US dollars). However, investors continue buying francs.

The Swiss franc, along with gold, the yen, is often used by investors as an asylum during periods of economic and political instability, thanks to Switzerland's strong economy, low levels of its debt and the stability of its political system.

Nevertheless, for the export-oriented Swiss economy, the franc's exchange rate is extremely important. A large share of its exports falls to the Eurozone, China, the United States, and the rising franc leads to a rise in the price of Swiss goods, making them less competitive.

Realizing this, the NBS seeks to contain the growth of its national currency.

The Swiss National Bank has set a negative deposit rate, hoping that this will reduce the attractiveness of Swiss assets for international investors.

Also, the NBS periodically conducts currency interventions with franc sales, of which it never declares either before or after the intervention.

At the end of July, the pair USD / CHF reached the level of 0.9445, after which its sharp, unexplained growth began, while the dollar was actively declining in the currency market against other major currencies. It is likely that the Swiss National Bank conducted a currency intervention. As a result, the USD/CHF grew by about 3.5%, reaching 0.9770 in August.

Today, USD/CHF is again trading near the level of 0.9445, from which the pair started to grow at the end of July.

On Thursday, a meeting of the NBS on monetary policy will take place, and at 08:30 (GMT) the NBS's decision on the interest rate, which at the moment is (-0.75%), will be published.

It is necessary to be extremely cautious when opening short positions for a pair of USD/CHF, since unexpected decisions from the NBS are possible on the background of the newly strengthened franc.


Support and resistance levels

After reaching the annual low at 0.9445 at the end of July, the pair USD / CHF skyrocketed during several trading sessions and reached the level of 0.9770 in the middle of last month (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the upward correction to the last global wave of decline since December 2016 and from the level 1.0300).

Nevertheless, in the future, the pair USD / CHF again moved into a downtrend against the background of a large-scale falling dollar.

Today, trading opened with a sharp increase in the dollar in currency pairs with the yen, the franc, as well as the decline in gold prices. Probably, this was due to the fact that the DPRK did not start the missile once again, as it was expected on September 9, when the anniversary of the founding of the state was celebrated.

Nevertheless, the pressure on the dollar persists. It is not excluded that already today during the American session the pair USD / CHF decline will resume.

You also need to be careful on the eve of the NBS meeting this week. Unexpected decisions on the part of the NBS or new currency interventions with franc sales are possible, which will cause another sharp growth of the USD / CHF.

In this case, technical analysis fades into the background under the pressure of fundamental factors.

The first signal to the growth of USD / CHF will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level 0.9540 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). In this case, the growth targets will be the resistance levels 0.9600 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.9650 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave since December 2016 and the level of 1.0300) 0.9700 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 0.9770 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 38.2%).

In the case of the breakdown of the level of 0.9400, the decline in the pair USD / CHF may resume within the descending channel on the daily chart. The lower boundary of this channel passes near the support level of 0.9300. This level will become the goal if the USD/CHF is resumed.

The strong negative dynamics prevails.

[b]Support levels: 0.9445, 0.9400, 0.9300

Resistance levels: 0.9540, 0.9600, 0.9650, 0.9700, 0.9730, 0.9770



Trading Scenarios[/b]

Buy Stop 0.9520. Stop-Loss 0.9460. Take-Profit 0.9600, 0.9650, 0.9670, 0.9690, 0.9730, 0.9770

Sell Stop 0.9460. Stop-Loss 0.9520. Take-Profit 0.9400, 0.9300

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: inflation in the UK rose again

12/09/2017

Current dynamics

At the beginning of today's European session, after the Office of National Statistics of Great Britain was presented a report on consumer inflation, the pound rose sharply in the foreign exchange market. The consumer price index (CPI) reflects the dynamics of retail prices and is a key indicator of inflation. The data show that the inflationary pressure shows almost no signs of slowing down.

According to the data presented, consumer inflation in the UK in August (in annual terms) was 2.9% (forecast was + 2.8% and + 2.6% in July).

The central bank of Great Britain is in a difficult situation. On the one hand, the Bank of England has faced a problem of weak economic growth and wages, and on the other hand, with rising prices, which are on the rise due to the sharp drop in the British pound that began after the referendum on the withdrawal of the country from the EU in June 2016.

Inflation significantly exceeds the target level of the Bank of England, which is 2%. At the same time, salaries grow much more slowly, not keeping up with inflation and cutting the level of consumer spending. Inflationary pressure, which affects British buyers, already has a negative impact on the UK economy, whose growth is determined primarily by internal factors.

On Wednesday (08:30 GMT) data on wages and unemployment will be presented, and on Thursday the meeting of the Bank of England will be held. At 11:00 (GMT) also on Thursday will be published a decision on the interest rate in the UK.

It is expected that the leaders of the Bank of England will leave the key interest rate unchanged at 0.25%. Some economists expect that only early next year, the Bank of England will gradually increase the cost of borrowing.

On Thursday, especially at 11:00 (GMT), a sharp increase in volatility is expected not only in pound trade, but also throughout the currency market, which must be taken into account when making trading decisions.



Technical Analysis

The GBP / USD pair is almost continuously growing over the course of six trading sessions.

After the release of inflation data, the pair GBP / USD today broke through the resistance levels 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the fall of the GBP / USD pair in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3260 (annual and August high) and continues grow in the ascending channels on the daily and weekly charts.

The upper limit of the ascending channels runs near the mark 1.3390, just below the level of 1.3460 (the July and September highs of 2016 reached after the referendum on Brexit).

The indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly charts turned to long positions.

In case of consolidation above the level of 1.3210, further growth is likely. The alternative scenario involves breakdown of the support level of 1.3210 and a further decline in the pair GBP / USD to support level 1.2980 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart).

A decline below support level 1.2870 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will strengthen the risk of a GBP / USD return in a downtrend.

Support levels: 1.3260, 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3030, 1.2980, 1.2910, 1.2870

Resistance levels: 1.3300, 1.3390, 1.3460



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3240. Stop-Loss 1.3310. Take-Profit 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3030, 1.2980, 1.2910, 1.2870

Buy Stop 1.3310. Stop-Loss 1.3240. Take-Profit 1.3360, 1.3400, 1.3460, 1.3500

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: strong employment data expected

13/09/2017

Current dynamics

Tomorrow is expected to publish important data assessing the state of the Australian economy.

At 01:00 (GMT), the consumer price inflation expectations index from the Melbourne Institute will be published, reflecting consumer expectations for future inflation for the next 12 months. Previous rate is +4.2%. If the current figure for September is higher, then the likelihood of an increase in the RBA rate will increase, which will have a positive effect on the Australian currency.

At 01:30 (GMT), data from the Australian labor market for August will be released, which may exceed expectations that the increase in jobs in August will be 20,000 above the long-term average of 15,000, and the unemployment rate in August will be 5, 6% (in the previous month, the number of new jobs also turned out to be higher than the consensus forecast of 20,000, and unemployment was also at 5.6%).

Strong Australian employment data may force investors to reconsider their forecasts regarding the start of rate hikes by the central bank, which can support the national currency.

Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia retained the key rate at a record low of 1.5%. "The growth of the exchange rate will become a factor of limited inflationary pressure in the economy, and, apparently, will cause a slowdown in the growth of economic activity and inflation compared to current forecasts", RBA Governor Philip Lowey said yesterday.

In combination with the recovery of Australia's GDP in the second quarter, strong data from the labor market can force the RBA to change its position from neutral to a tendency to tighten policies.

Also tomorrow (02:00 GMT) important macro data will be published from China (retail sales and level of industrial production for August).

China is the largest trade and economic partner and buyer of primary commodities in Australia. Therefore, positive news from China also positively affects the currencies of the Pacific region, including the Australian dollar.

It is expected positive macro statistics from China, which will also support the Australian dollar.

Thus, there are several strong fundamental factors that may tomorrow provoke the growth of the Australian dollar, including against the US dollar, which recently shows a large decline in the foreign exchange market and is under pressure amid growing pessimism of investors regarding the possibility of a further increase in the interest rate in the US, as well as the continuing tensions between the US and North Korea and the political contradictions in Washington.


Support and resistance levels

AUD/USD keeps positive dynamics and grows in the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts, the upper limit of which passes near the level of 0.8130.

Long positions are still relevant. While the AUD / USD pair is above the short-term support levels of 0.8010 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7935 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), the bulls are not threatened.

Moreover, with a correction decrease to support level 0.8010, it is possible to increase long positions with stops below the level of 0.7980.

You can return to consideration of short positions in case of breakdown of short-term support level 0.7935. In this case, a further corrective decrease to the support levels of 0.7850 is possible (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014, the minimum of wave is near 0.6830). Here, the bottom line of the ascending channel passes on the daily chart.

In case of breakdown of the support level 0.7800 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), the AUD / USD decline will accelerate with the target at the support level of 0.7680 (EMA200 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart). The breakdown of the support level of 0.7460 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6%) will return the AUD / USD to the global downtrend beginning in July 2014.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, weekly, monthly charts are on the buyers side.

Support levels: 0.8010, 0.7935, 0.7900, 0.7850, 0.7800, 0.7680

Resistance levels: 0.8050, 0.8120, 0.8160



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.8010. Stop-Loss 0.8055. Take-Profit 0.7935, 0.7900, 0.7850, 0.7800, 0.7680

Buy Stop 0.8055. Stop-Loss 0.8010. Take-Profit 0.8100, 0.8120, 0.8160

 

[TifiaFX]

FTSE100: The Bank of England decided to keep the current interest rate at the same level

14/09/2017

Current dynamics

Today was a busy day of publication of important macro-economic news. After the Swiss National Bank decided to leave the deposit rate at -0.75%, the franc declined in the foreign exchange market. According to the NBS, "the franc remains highly overvalued", and currency interventions with the franc's sales are still "necessary".

At 11:00 (GMT), the decision of the Bank of England was published, according to which the central bank of Great Britain decided to keep the current interest rate at the previous level of 0.25%, the lowest level for the last 300 years.

Contradictory data from the UK, published recently, including high inflation, improvement in the labor market and increased production activity, but weak wage growth, made it necessary for the Bank of England not to rush to make a decision on changing monetary policy.

The pound reacted to the Bank of England's decision by strengthening, while the London Stock Exchange index declined. Two of the 9 members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted for an immediate increase in the interest rate amid accelerated inflation, which hit British incomes, which also reflected a decline in consumer spending.

The UK economy is focused on the domestic market, and the decline in consumer spending negatively affects the growth of the country's GDP.

Nevertheless, the UK economy against the backdrop of Brexit still requires support in the form of maintaining a soft monetary policy.

The propensity of some members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to tighten monetary policy gives rise to an opinion among economists that the Bank of England may soon begin to phase out the extra soft monetary policy.

Some economists expect that early next year, the Bank of England will gradually increase the cost of borrowing.

And this is a negative factor for the British stock market, and a positive one for the pound.


Support and resistance levels

In response to the decision of the Bank of England on the rate, the FTSE100 index fell sharply, failing to develop an upward trend above the resistance level of 7395.0 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour chart).

Immediately after the publication of the decision, the FTSE100 index within half an hour decreased by 0.8% to support level 7335.0 (EMA144 on the daily chart).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts were deployed to short positions.

If the negative dynamics will increase, then the nearest targets of reducing the FTSE100 will be support levels of 7290.0 (summer lows), 7265.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

The breakdown of the support level of 7265.0 will accelerate the decline of the index within the descending channel on the daily chart, the lower limit of which passes near the support level of 7090.0 (the low of February, the highs of October).

Breakdown of the level 7090.0 and further decline will mean a turn and end of the upward trend of the FTSE100 index.

The scenario for the resumption of growth implies the return of the FTSE100 index above the local resistance level of 7436.0.

While the Bank of England maintains an extra soft monetary policy, the scenario for the preservation and development of the bullish trend remains relevant.

Support levels: 7335.0, 7290.0, 7265.0, 7200.0, 7090.0, 7050.0

Resistance levels: 7395.0, 7400.0, 7436.0, 7450.0, 7500.0, 7600.0



Trading Scenarios

Sell on the market. Stop-Loss 7410.0. Take-Profit 7290.0, 7265.0, 7200.0, 7090.0, 7050.0

Buy Stop 7410.0. Stop-Loss 7290.0. Take-Profit 7436.0, 7450.0, 7500.0, 7600.0

 

[TifiaFX]

Brent: prices are rising again

15/09/2017

Current dynamics

During today's Asian session, the Japanese broadcaster NHK announced the next launch of the North Korean ballistic missile towards Japan. Investors reacted rather sluggishly to the next launch of the missile. The price of oil in response to this message has slightly decreased. However, in general, quotations were stable, and during the European session, the growth of oil prices resumed.

A sharp increase in oil prices is observed for the second week in a row. The tension between the United States and North Korea has somewhat decreased. Concerns about the effects of hurricanes in the United States and the political contradictions in Washington have also weakened a bit.

American refineries have been restoring their work after the hurricanes, and the demand for oil in the US is gradually recovering.

On Tuesday, its monthly report was released by OPEC. According to this document, the cartel's output in August fell for the first time since April. In addition, OPEC countries adhered to the agreement on oil production reduction more strictly. OPEC and countries outside the cartel are discussing the possibility of extending the agreement after March next year.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday presented a report according to which the world oil supply in August fell for the first time in the last 4 months, by 720,000 barrels per day. At the same time, the IEA raised the forecast for the growth of world oil demand in 2017 to 1.6 million barrels per day. Optimistic forecasts for oil demand in the coming months and data on the fall of world oil reserves contribute to higher oil prices.

Today at 17:00 (GMT) the American oil service company Baker Hughes will publish a weekly report on the number of active drilling platforms in the US. This report is an important indicator of the activity of the oil sector of the US economy and significantly affects the quotes of oil prices. The previous report indicated a reduction in the number of active drilling platforms due to Hurricane Harvey (up to 756 against 759 weeks earlier and 768 two weeks ago). If the number of active drilling rigs decreases again, this will also contribute to the growth of oil quotes.


Support and resistance levels

This week, the price of Brent crude oil broke through an important resistance level of 54.70

(EMA200 on the weekly chart) and continues to grow in the upward channel on the daily chart, the upper border of which passes near the mark of 58.45 (highs of 2017).

The fundamental factors speak in favor of maintaining the positive dynamics of oil prices and the likelihood of their further growth.

The breakthrough of resistance level 55.65 (EMA50 on the monthly chart) will create prerequisites for further price growth with the target of 58.45 dollars per barrel of Brent crude oil.

The reduction scenario involves a breakdown of the 54.70 support level and a further price fall with targets at support levels of 52.90 (EMA144 on the 4-hour chart and the bottom line of the uplink on the daily chart), 52.45 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

The breakdown of the support levels 51.20 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (EMA50 on the weekly chart, as well as the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute lows of 2016 near the 27.00 mark) will mean a price return to bearish trend, and the decline may extend to the level of support at 50.00 (the lows of August). Further objectives are support levels 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), 44.50 (lows of the year). A more distant goal is the level 41.70 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% and the lower boundary of the descending channel on the weekly chart).

So far, positive dynamics have prevailed.

Support levels: 55.00, 54.70, 53.45, 53.30, 52.90, 52.45, 51.70, 51.20, 50.70, 50.00

Resistance levels: 55.65, 56.50, 56.80, 57.50, 58.45



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 54.90. Stop-Loss 55.80. Take-Profit 54.70, 53.45, 53.30, 52.90, 52.45, 51.70, 51.20, 50.70

Buy Stop 55.80. Stop-Loss 54.90. Take-Profit 56.00, 56.50, 56.80, 57.50, 58.45

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/JPY: Dollar grows against yen

18/09/2017

Current dynamics

The focus of the traders this week will be the meetings of the central banks of the United States and Japan. Wednesday (18:00 GMT) will publish the Fed's decision on the interest rate. Also, economic forecasts of the Federal Reserve will be presented, including for 2020. At 18:30 (GMT), the FRS press conference will begin, and investors will closely follow the speech of the Fed Chairman Janet Yellen to catch signals about further plans by the Fed to tighten monetary policy. According to CME Group forecasts, the probability that interest rates will remain unchanged is 98.6%.

Meanwhile, the US dollar / Japanese yen pair is trading today with an increase of 0.5%, at 111.30 after reaching the highest level in almost eight weeks at 111.41. Concerns about political risks have weakened.

On Friday, North Korea launched another missile, but on Monday the market ignores this fact. In addition, in Japan today is a state holiday, and the market is experiencing a reduction in liquidity and trading volumes on the yen.

On Thursday (02:00 GMT) will be published the decision of the Bank of Japan on the interest rate. It is widely expected that the main interest rate in Japan will remain at the same level (-0.1%).

The Bank of Japan adheres to an extra soft monetary policy. As repeatedly stated by the representatives of the bank, in order to accelerate inflation, which is near zero values, the Bank of Japan can expand the measures of quantitative and qualitative easing.

Nevertheless, since the end of 2016, the yen has appreciated significantly against the dollar, including against the backdrop of investors buying yen as a safe haven.

This worries the monetary authorities of Japan, whose economy is focused, mainly, on the export of high-tech products.

At 06:30 (GMT) on Thursday, the Bank of Japan will hold a press conference. The head of the Bank of Japan Kuroda will present to investors the CBR's position on the issue of monetary policy and will assess the prospects for economic activity in the country and the course of monetary policy.

In this regard, the pair USD / JPY is expected to increase volatility on Wednesday from 18:00 (GMT) and on Thursday from 02:00 to 07:00 (GMT).



Support and resistance levels

A week earlier, amid growing tension between the United States and North Korea, the pair USD / JPY fell to the support level of 107.30 (the lows of September and the year, as well as the bottom line of the descending channel on the daily chart).

Nevertheless, the market ignored the next launch of the North Korean missile last Friday. As a result, USD / JPY broke through resistance level 110.15 (EMA50 on the daily chart, Fibonacci level 38.2% correction to the pair growth since August of last year and 99.90 level), and today it makes an attempt to gain a foothold above the important level of 110.90 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart ).

Today, the dollar demonstrates multidirectional dynamics in the foreign exchange market.

Nevertheless, the indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of buyers.

If the pair USD / JPY continues to grow, the immediate target will be level 113.00 (50% Fibonacci level and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart).

The reduction scenario implies the return of USD / JPY to the level of 110.15 and the resumption of the decline in the downlink on the weekly chart, the lower limit of which runs near the level of 106.50 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%).

Support levels: 110.90, 110.15, 110.00, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00

Resistance levels: 112.00, 113.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00



Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 111.50. Stop Loss 110.80. Take-Profit 112.00, 113.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00

Sell Stop 110.80. Stop Loss 111.50. Take-Profit 110.15, 110.00, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: volatility is expected to increase

19/09/2017

Current dynamics

The main events of the week started are the meetings of the central banks of the USA and Japan. The two-day meeting of the Fed starts today, and will end on Wednesday with a publication (at 18:00 GMT) of interest rate decisions and a press conference, which will begin at 18:30 (GMT).

On Thursday, a more favorable than expected consumer price index in the US was published, which strengthened investors' expectations about the likelihood of another rate hike this year. According to the CME Group, investors estimate the likelihood of a rate hike by the end of the year at 58% against the 41% level noted last week.

On Wednesday, the Fed is expected to announce plans to reduce its portfolio of mortgage and government bonds by $ 4.5 trillion, but will leave interest rates unchanged.

If the leaders of the Fed express confidence in the restoration of economic growth in the US, it will support the dollar.

Concerning the New Zealand dollar, it is worth noting that volatility in trading on it could rise sharply on Monday, when the results of the general election in New Zealand, which will be held on Saturday, will be known. According to the latest opinion poll, the gap between the candidates remains very small. 42.4% of the respondents are ready to cast their votes for the National Party, and 40.4% for the opposition Labor Party. If the ruling National Party wins, the New Zealand dollar will strengthen on the foreign exchange market.

From the news for today it is worth paying attention to the publication after 13:00 (GMT) of the data from the auction of dairy products. The price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out last time with the value of + 0.3%.

It is expected that the price of milk powder will not change or fall by 2%, which will have a negative impact on the New Zealand dollar.



Support and resistance levels

Today, NZD/USD is making another attempt to break through the resistance level of 0.7290 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

At the same time, NZD / USD keeps positive dynamics, trading in the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which is above the resistance level of 0.7550 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline from 0.8800, which began in July 2014, December 2016).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly, monthly charts were turned to long positions.

In case of breaking through the local resistance level of 0.7345, the growth of NZD / USD pair will continue with the target at the level of 0.7550.

In the alternative scenario and in case of breakdown of the support level of 0.7240 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), further decrease to the support levels 0.7200 (EMA144), 0.7175 (EMA200 on the daily chart) is possible.

The breakdown at 0.7175 raises the risks of a return to a downtrend. The immediate goal of further decline is the support level of 0.7080 (the lower boundary of the descending channel on the daily chart and EMA200 on the monthly chart).

The break of 0.6860 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% and the lower limit of the range between 0.7550 and 0.6860) will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and return to the downtrend.

Support levels: 0.7265, 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7175

Resistance levels: 0.7300, 0.7345, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7260. Stop-Loss 0.7310. Take-Profit 0.7240, 0.7200, 0.7175, 0.7100, 0.7000, 0.6860

Buy Stop 0.7310. Stop-Loss 0.7260. Take-Profit 0.7400, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: sluggish index dynamics

20/09/2017

Current dynamics

Trading on world stock exchanges today is sluggish. Market participants took a wait-and-see position before the Fed decision on rates. Investors almost did not react to the speech of President Donald Trump at the UN in which he threatened to "completely destroy" North Korea if the US had to defend itself or its allies. It seems that investors do not believe in such a scenario of development of the geopolitical confrontation on the Korean peninsula.

Today, the focus of market participants is the Fed meeting. The US Central Bank is expected to announce a reduction in the balance of 4.5 trillion dollars. However, the rates will remain at the current level in the range of 1.00-1.25%.

The change in the Fed's forecasts regarding the dynamics of interest rates for the next year is the most interesting issue for investors. If the prospects for raising rates worsen, the dollar may be under pressure. At the same time, the US stock markets will receive an additional impetus to the continuation of the bullish trend.

Another point that deserves attention in assessing the prospects and dynamics of stock indices. Republicans in the US Senate prepared a preliminary draft agreement on the budget, which laid down the parameters of the tax reform. Until now, stock markets have ignored the failures of the administration of the US president, relying mainly on the strong reports of US companies and macro statistics.

Adoption of the budget is a prerequisite for passage in the Senate of the law on taxes by a simple majority vote, without the support of representatives of a democratic party.

In case of successful outcome of voting on this issue, the US stock market will respond with growth, as the tax reform of the administration of Donald Trump is designed to reduce taxes for US companies.

In general, the positive dynamics of the US stock market remains.



Support and resistance levels

After Monday's index S & P500 updated the annual high near the mark of 2506.0, today the index of the second day is trading in a narrow range near this level.

The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are still on the buyers’ side.

Short-term downward correction is possible to support levels 2496.0 (EMA144), 2491.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). Deeper correction is allowed to the support level 2472.0 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart).

The upward trend in the S & P500 index is maintained as long as it trades above the key support level of 2378.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

Only the breakdown of the support level of 2348.0 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction for growth since February 2016) could significantly increase the risk of the S & P500 returning to a downtrend.

About the reversal of the bullish trend is not yet talking. There is a possibility of further growth.

Support levels: 2496.0, 2491.0, 2472.0, 2463.0, 2450.0, 2433.0, 2418.0, 2378.0, 2348.0

Resistance levels: 2506.0



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2502.0. Stop-Loss 2507.0. Objectives 2496.0, 2491.0, 2472.0, 2463.0, 2450.0, 2433.0, 2418.0, 2378.0

Buy Stop 2507.0 Stop-Loss 2502.0. Objectives 2525.0, 2550.0

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar is leading the decline against the US dollar

21/09/2017

Current dynamics

As Philip Lowie, the RBA's governor, said today, the bank expects "a gradual decline in the unemployment rate, which should help accelerate the growth of salaries", adding that "based on the current situation, we are aimed at further reducing unemployment and are on the way to the middle of the target inflation range 2% -3%”.

According to Lowie, the RBA's optimistic forecasts regarding inflation and GDP growth in 2018 look quite realistic. So, the GDP growth of Australia in 2018 should be 3.0%, unemployment will decrease, and the growth rate of wages should accelerate.

The minutes of the September 5 meeting of the RBA on Tuesday show that the scale of employment growth indicates that the economy of the country has overcome all the difficulties associated with changes in activity in the mining sector.

Nevertheless, today the Australian dollar – is in the leaders of decline against the US dollar. As you know, yesterday the Fed made it clear that it could raise interest rates again this year and next month it will start selling previously purchased treasury bonds. At the moment, the portfolio of assets of the Federal Reserve is about 4.5 trillion dollars, and reducing the balance of the Fed will be tantamount to tightening monetary policy.

The prospect of raising interest rates is negative for commodities, the price of which is expressed in US dollars. The probability of an increase in rates in 2017, according to the CME Group, is now more than 68% against 41% a week earlier.

Australia is the largest exporter of primary commodities, including iron ore, liquefied gas. The strategic partner of Australia and the buyer of its primary commodities is China.

Today, Standard & Poor's downgraded China's credit rating to A + from AA-. Now the S & amp; P rating corresponds to the Moody's rating, lowered in May, and the Fitch rating, which was lowered in 2013. And it also affects the Australian dollar, putting pressure on him.

We are waiting for data from the USA today. At 12:30 (GMT) a number of macro data will be published, including the weekly report of the US Department of Labor, which contains data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. The result higher than expected indicates a weak labor market, which has a negative impact on the US dollar. The forecast is expected to grow to 300,000 from 284,000 in the previous period, which should negatively affect the dollar.

Nevertheless, the pressure on the AUD / USD pair in the absence of important news from this country is likely to remain until the end of the week.


Support and resistance levels

The AUD/USD today broke through two important support levels of 0.8000 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 on the 4-hour chart, EMA200 on the weekly chart), 0.7950 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and develops a downward correction to the support level of 0.7905 ( EMA50 on the daily chart).

Deeper downward correction, while maintaining a general upward positive medium-term dynamics, is allowed up to the support level of 0.7850 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the fall wave of the pair since July 2014, the minimum of wave is near 0.6830 level). Here, the bottom line of the ascending channel passes on the daily chart.

Despite today's decline, the pair AUD / USD keeps positive dynamics and grows in the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts, the upper limit of which runs near the level of 0.8160 (50% Fibonacci level).

The return above the level of 0.8000 will cause the resumption of purchases of the pair AUD / USD.

You can return to consideration of short positions in case of breakdown of the support level of 0.7850.

In case of breakdown of the support level 0.7800 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), the AUD / USD decline will accelerate with the target at the support level of 0.7700 (EMA200 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart). The breakdown of the support level of 0.7460 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6%) will return the pair AUD / USD to the global downtrend beginning in July 2014.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts were deployed to short positions.

Support levels: 0.7905, 0.7850, 0.7800, 0.7700

Resistance levels: 0.7950, 0.8000, 0.8050, 0.8120, 0.8160



Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7960. Take-Profit 0.7905, 0.7850, 0.7800

Buy Stop 0.7960. Stop-Loss 0.7930. Take-Profit 0.8000, 0.8050, 0.8100, 0.8120, 0.8160

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: the price of gold has stopped falling

22/09/2017

Current dynamics

North Korea once again threatened to test a nuclear bomb, and again quotations of gold prices crawled up. Foreign Minister Li Yong-ho said on Thursday that his country could conduct the most powerful test of a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific Ocean. This threat came in response to a speech by President Donald Trump at the UN, which said that if the US or its allies were threatened, the United States could completely destroy North Korea.

Geopolitical tensions are one of the main factors in the growth of gold prices. And today the threat of a new aggravation of the geopolitical situation on the Korean peninsula outweighs another important fundamental factor - expectations of a further increase in the interest rate in the United States.

As you know, the Fed signaled on Wednesday that it still expects another increase in interest rates before the end of this year, and plans to begin a gradual reduction in its assets portfolio in October.

According to the CME, investors are currently assessing the likelihood of an increase in interest rates by the end of the year at about 70%, while as recently as last week - less than 40%.

Assets deemed reliable, such as the yen, franc, gold, came under pressure following Fed statements. Gold fell in price yesterday to 1290.00 dollars per ounce, approaching the minimum since the end of August.

With an increase in interest rates, precious metals, including gold, usually become cheaper, if the geopolitical situation at this time remains stable. Gold, which does not bring investment income and can not compete with more profitable assets, becomes cheaper, as the cost of borrowing for its acquisition and storage grows with an increase in the interest rate.

From the news for today we are waiting for the data from the USA. At 13:45 (GMT) will be published indices (preliminary values) of business activity in the manufacturing and service sectors of the US (for September). It is expected that the indices will come out with slight deviations from the values for the previous month. Nevertheless, the values of the indicators are well above 50, which is a positive factor for the US dollar. If the data prove to be better than the forecast values, the dollar will get a good support, including in the pair XAU/USD.



Support and resistance levels

Since the opening of today and during the Asian session, the price of gold has resumed growth.

At the beginning of the European session, the pair XAU / USD is trading near the 1295.00 mark, through which the support level passes and the EMA50 line on the daily chart.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on different time frames show a multidirectional dynamics.

It is likely that in the short term, with a decrease in geopolitical tensions, the growth of the dollar will continue, and the price of gold will remain under pressure, again until the next aggravation of the geopolitical situation in the world and on the Korean Peninsula.

The fundamental background (tightening of monetary policy in the US) creates the prerequisites for further reduction of XAU / USD.

In the case of consolidation below the level of 1295.00, the target of the decline will be support levels 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), 1262.00 (EMA200, the lower limit of the ascending channels on the daily and weekly charts).

The breakdown of the key support level of 1248.00 (the Fibonacci level of 50.0% of the correction to the fall wave from July 2016, EMA144 on the weekly chart) will provoke further decline in the pair XAU / USD and its return to the downtrend.

The alternative scenario is connected with the breakdown of the nearest resistance level of 1304.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). In case of fastening above the resistance level 1312.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the growth of the pair XAU / USD will resume with the nearest target of 1357.00 (annual highs). The more distant goal is at the level of 1370.00 (the beginning of the wave of decline since July 2016 and the Fibonacci level of 100% and the upper limit of the rising channel on the weekly chart). In this case, the upward trend of XAU / USD, which began in January 2016, will resume.

Support levels: 1295.00, 1277.00, 1270.00, 1262.00, 1248.00

Resistance levels: 1304.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1289.00. Stop-Loss 1302.00. Take-Profit 1277.00, 1270.00, 1262.00, 1260.00, 1248.00

Buy Stop 1302.00. Stop-Loss 1289.00. Take-Profit 1304.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00

 

[TifiaFX]

Brent: oil prices jumped on Monday

26/09/2017

Overview and dynamics

Yesterday, oil prices rose sharply. According to analysts of the oil market, several factors contributed to this.

The first reason is the strengthening of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East in connection with the referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan. Prices jumped after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to close the oil pipeline, through which Kurdistan oil is supplied to the world market.

On the other hand, although the meeting of OPEC and a number of other oil-producing countries held on Friday did not lead to an extension of the contract for limiting production, a statement was made about a higher degree of compliance with quotas. In addition, a number of countries signaled their readiness to extend the deal to reduce production in 2018.

As a result, on Monday, oil prices reached a maximum in more than two years. The barrel of Brent crude oil was worth 58.55 dollars at the end of yesterday's trading day.

At the auctions in Asia today oil continued to go up. Brent crude futures for ICE Futures Europe rose 0.08% to 59.07 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude oil reached 58.80, the highest level in the last two years.

However, at the beginning of the European session, the price of oil is falling, including because of the strengthening dollar.

Today at 16:45 (GMT), the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen will start in Cleveland, and on Thursday the vice-chairman Stanley Fischer will speak. Last week, the Fed hinted that this year it could raise rates again. According to the CME Group, investors estimate the probability of an interest rate increase in December at 72.8%. And now investors are hoping to get new information about the course of monetary policy of the Fed.

Today (at 20:30 GMT), the American Petroleum Institute (API) will publish its weekly report on oil and petroleum products in the US. If the API report indicates a reduction in stocks, then oil prices will receive additional support. The official weekly report from the US Department of Energy on oil and petroleum products will be released on Wednesday (14:30 GMT). The stock is expected to grow by 2.296 million barrels, which should also support prices.



Support and resistance levels

The price for Brent crude oil broke yesterday the upper limit of the upward channel on the daily chart and reached the level of 58.45 (highs of 2017). The last time at these levels the price was two years ago, in July 2015. The price has been growing for the third month in a row, keeping positive dynamics above the key support level of 54.70 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). Here, the upper limit of the descending channel passes on the weekly chart.

The decline scenario will be associated with a return to the level 54.70 inside the downlink on the weekly chart, the lower limit of which passes near the level of 36.05 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark) . The breakdown of support levels 51.50 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) raises the risks of price return to the bearish trend with targets at support levels of 50.00 (lows in August), 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level) 44.50 (lows of the year), 41.70 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 36.05 (bottom line of the descending channel on the weekly chart).

So far, positive dynamics have prevailed. Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastic) on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are on the buyers’ side.

The next medium-term goal in the case of continued growth will be the resistance level of 62.00, near which the lines EMA144, EMA200 pass on the monthly chart.

Support levels: 58.00, 57.45, 56.75, 55.85, 55.00, 54.70, 53.75, 51.50, 50.70, 50.00

Resistance levels: 58.45, 59.00



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 57.70. Stop-Loss 58.20. Take-Profit 57.45, 56.75, 55.85, 55.00, 54.70, 53.75, 51.50, 50.70, 50.00

Buy Stop 58.20. Stop-Loss 57.70. Take-Profit 58.45, 59.00, 60.00

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: dollar and indices grow

27/09/2017

Current dynamics

Today, the financial markets are growing dollar and the resumption of growth in US stock indices. The dollar strengthened after comments from US Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen, which increased the likelihood of another increase in interest rates. On Tuesday, Yellen spoke in support of the central bank's plan to raise interest rates.

"It would be unreasonable to pursue an unchanged monetary policy until inflation returned to 2%," Yellen said. According to the CME Group, investors estimate the likelihood of a rate hike in December at 83.1%, while the previous day it was 72.3%. Nevertheless, the propensity of investors to buy risky assets is growing again. Yield of 10-year US government bonds rose to 2.290% from yesterday's level of 2.229%.

Long-term soft monetary policy has become an important fundamental factor for the growth of the stock market. Now many investors believe that the stock market is able to cope with the gradual tightening of the policy.

As the head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, said earlier, the possibility of a gradual tightening of monetary policy speaks about the strength of the American economy. One increase in rates is not enough to break the bull market. More important factors are the strong corporate reports of US companies, the stable state of the labor market and the growth of the US GDP.

Today, the administration of the US president and the Republican leaders in the congress will publicize a preliminary tax reform plan that provides for tax cuts on citizens and the US company, and will allow the return of trillions of dollars invested abroad, Trump said. Until now, stock markets have ignored the failures of the administration of the US president, relying mainly on the strong reports of US companies and macro statistics. If the preliminary tax reform plan is adopted in the congress, it will also support the US stock market. Donald Trump's speech should begin at 21:00 (GMT).

In general, the positive dynamics of the US stock market remains.




Support and resistance levels

Last week, the S & P500 index updated its annual high near the 2507.0 mark, however, it subsequently fell against the backdrop of an escalation of tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

Today, the index resumed growth, trading at the beginning of the European session near the mark of 2500.0.

In general, the positive dynamics of the index remains. About the reversal of the bullish trend is not yet talking. There is a possibility of further growth in the ascending channels on the daily and weekly charts. In the event of a breakdown of the local resistance level of 2507.0 (annual and absolute highs), the index's growth will continue.

In case of a breakdown of the short-term support level 2496.5 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), a downward correction is possible to the support levels 2478.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 2472.0 (EMA50 and the middle of the uplink on the daily chart).

The medium-term upward movement of the S & P500 index is maintained as long as it trades above the key support level of 2386.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

Only the breakdown of the support level of 2348.0 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction for growth since February 2016) could significantly increase the risk of the S & P500 returning to a downtrend.

Support levels: 2496.5, 2478.0, 2472.0, 2463.0, 2450.0, 2433.0, 2418.0, 2378.0, 2348.0

Resistance Levels: 2507.0



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2492.0. Stop-Loss 2504.0. Objectives 2490.0, 2478.0, 2472.0, 2463.0, 2450.0, 2433.0, 2418.0, 2378.0

Buy Stop 2504.0 Stop-Loss 2492.0. Objectives 2507.0, 2510.0

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: RBNZ keeps rate at current level

28/09/2017

Current dynamics

As expected, the RB of New Zealand maintained the current interest rate at the current level of 1.75%. The RBNZ meeting under the leadership of the new manager Grant Spencer took place after the general elections in New Zealand, which did not bring an obvious result. Previously published GDP data showed only a moderate recovery in the country's economic growth after six months of slowdown. At the same time, inflation in the second quarter weakened to 1.7%, which is below the midpoint of the target range of the central bank. If, however, New Zealand begins a period of political instability, then this will have the most negative impact on the national currency of the country.

The New Zealand dollar reacted rather weakly to the decision of the RBNZ. At the same time, the US dollar continues to grow in the foreign exchange market, including against the New Zealand dollar. The next round of escalation of geopolitical tensions on the Korean Peninsula negatively affects the quotations of currencies in the Asia-Pacific region, including the quotations of the New Zealand dollar.

Yesterday, the US Republican Party published a draft tax reform, which, according to their calculations, will revitalize the economy, and this week's speech by representatives of the Fed increased investor confidence that interest rates will be raised again in December. The index of the dollar WSJ, which estimates its rate to a basket of 16 currencies, increased by 0.1%, to the level of 86.59 after rising by 0.5% on Wednesday, when it achieved the maximum three-day growth since the beginning of the year.

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 2.352% from 2.309% on Thursday, while earlier it showed the highest daily gain since March, indicating an increase in the propensity of investors to buy more risky assets of the US stock market. The growth in the yield of US bonds is accompanied, as a rule, by the growth of quotations of the US dollar.

Investors began to assess the higher probability of a third rate increase this year, which supports the dollar, as this increases the profitability of US assets. According to the CME Group, investors are now expecting an increase in Fed rates by the end of this year with a probability of 83%.

Of the news for today, we are waiting for the publication at 12:30 and 13:30 (GMT) of a block of important macro statistics for the US, including the inflation index of personal consumption expenditure and annual GDP data for the second quarter (adjusted values). It is expected that GDP growth in the second quarter was 3% (in annual terms), which will support the US dollar.

Also at 13:45 and 14:15, representatives of the Federal Reserve Bank Esther George and Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer will speak. It is likely that they will support the head of the Fed and will also speak in favor of a third interest rate increase this year that will also support the dollar.


Support and resistance levels

The NZD / USD pair declines for the fourth consecutive day after the elections in New Zealand last weekend.

At the beginning of the European session, the pair NZD / USD is trading near a strong support level of 0.7180 (EMA200 on the daily chart), restraining the pair from further decline.

In case of breakdown of this level, the NZD / USD pair decline will accelerate.

The immediate goal of further decline is the support level of 0.7080 (the lower boundary of the descending channel on the daily chart and EMA200 on the monthly chart).

The break of 0.6860 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% and the lower limit of the range between 0.7550 and 0.6860) will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and return to the downtrend.

An alternative scenario involves a return to the zone above the resistance levels of 0.7240

(the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, here are the minimums of December 2016), 0.7250 (EMA200 on the 1-hour graph0, 0.7265 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and the resumption of growth in the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which passes near the level of 0.7850 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).

The nearest target in case of continuation of growth will be resistance level 0.7430 (September highs and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts were deployed to short positions.

Support levels: 0.7200, 0.7180, 0.7100, 0.7080

Resistance levels: 0.7210, 0.7240, 0.7250, 0.7265



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7160. Stop-Loss 0.7240. Take-Profit 0.7100, 0.7000, 0.6900

Buy Stop 0.7240. Stop-Loss 0.7160. Take-Profit 0.7265, 0.7300, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: pound decreased on data

29/09/2017

Current dynamics

As Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said in an interview with the BBC, the central bank of the UK will raise the key interest rate if the UK economy continues to move the current rate.

"If the economy will move the current course, then it may be appropriate to raise rates", - said Carney. This increase, in his opinion, could take place quite soon.

The pound reacted rather weakly to this statement of Mark Carney. Moreover, at the beginning of the European session, the pound declined after the published data showed that the current account deficit of the UK's balance of payments in the second quarter significantly exceeded the forecast (16.00 billion pounds), reaching 23.2 billion pounds. At the same time, GDP growth in the second quarter was confirmed at 0.3%.

Nevertheless, the pair GBP / USD closes the month and the third quarter with a gain, despite the decline for the second week in a row.

The expectation of an early interest rate increase in the UK contributes to the purchase of the pound and the growth of its quotes. Earlier, the Bank of England repeatedly signaled that it was preparing for the first more than a 10-year rate hike to limit inflation. Many economists expect that the first increase may take place in November.

For today, another performance by Mark Carney (14:45 GMT) is planned. From it, participants in financial markets are waiting to clarify the situation regarding the future policy of the central bank of Great Britain. If Mark Carney touches on the topic of monetary policy and confirms the plans of the Bank of England for a rapid increase in the interest rate in the UK, the pound will once again strengthen in the currency market, including the GBP / USD pair.

Of the news for today, we also expect data from the United States. At 12:30 (GMT) will be published a report of the US Department of Commerce with data on personal income / expenditure of Americans and price indices (for August). If the data prove to be better than forecasted values (slight growth of indicators is expected), the dollar will grow on the foreign exchange market.



Support and resistance levels

Today, the GBP / USD pair continues its corrective decline after active growth at the beginning of the month. Yesterday, GBP / USD broke the short-term support level 1.3437 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and continues to decline to support levels 1.3235 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the pair GBP / USD decline in wave , which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts were deployed to short positions.

The breakdown of these levels will cause a deeper correction to the support level of 1.3135 (the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart).

While the pair GBP / USD is trading above support level 1.2960 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the positive mid-term dynamics of the GBP / USD remains.

In case of breakdown of the local resistance level 1.3437, the resumption of growth is likely with the targets of 1.3260 (highs of August), 1.3460 (July and September highs of 2016 reached after the referendum on Brexit), 1.3630, 1.3780 (EMA144 on the weekly chart).

Support levels: 1.3375, 1.3235, 1.3210, 1.3135, 1.3100, 1.3020, 1.2960, 1.2900

Resistance levels: 1.3437, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3780



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3345. Stop-Loss 1.3410. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3235, 1.3210, 1.3135, 1.3100, 1.3020, 1.2960, 1.2900

Buy Stop 1.3410. Stop-Loss 1.3345. Take-Profit 1.3437, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3780