AceTraderFx: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 8: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Dec 2016 03:24GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Despite swinging wildly in Wed's hectic trading with price ratcheting higher to 114.40 in Europe, price later tumbled on broad-based yen buying in New York morning to 113.42 on renewed usd's weakness n drop in U.S. Treasury yields, price staged a short covering bounce to 114.00 in New York afternoon before coming off again in Tokyo today, the pair fell to intra-day low of 113.31 during Tokyo lunch session after tripping stops below 113.40.

Although price has remained under pressure, as dlr is expected to remain confined inside early established broad range, bids reported at 113.10-00 area should contain weakness as yesterday's rise to records highs in the Dow and S&P 500 should boost risk sentiment.
More buying interest is noted below 113.00 with stops reported below 112.80.
Offers are tipped at 113.85/95 and more above with stops above 114.00.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 9: Intra-Day News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Dec 2016 02:00GMT

GBP/USD - .... Reuters reported Britain's Supreme Court will decide as quickly as possible whether Prime Minister Theresa May can trigger Britain's exit from the European Union by the end of March without parliament's assent, its president said on Thursday.
Last month, the High Court decided that May could not invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the EU's exit clause, using executive powers known as the "royal prerogative".

The case could potentially hamper May's Brexit plans, and investors believe involving lawmakers would lessen the chances of a "hard" Brexit, where Britain gives up access to the single European market in order to impose tighter immigration controls.
Pro-Brexit critics have cast the legal battle as an attempt by a pro-EU establishment to thwart the result of June's referendum, when Britons voted by 52-48 percent to leave the EU.

The judges in the High Court case were dubbed "enemies of the people" by one newspaper while Gina Miller, the investment manager who brought the challenge, has received death threats and a torrent of online abuse.

The government's argument is essentially that under Britain's unwritten constitution, it can make or leave international treaties without parliamentary assent.
The challengers argue that triggering Article 50 would inevitably mean citizens would lose rights granted by parliament and so only lawmakers could take these away.

The Scottish and Welsh governments and lawyers for Northern Irish challengers all joined the case against the government. Scotland's nationalist executive, which opposes Brexit, argued that the Scottish parliament should be consulted.
If May wins, she can follow her planned timetable for invoking Article 50. If she loses, she might need to bring in a parliamentary bill, albeit one containing just a single line.

On Wednesday, parliament overwhelmingly voted to back a motion supporting her timetable, which government lawyer James Eadie said was highly significant and "legally relevant".
Echoing comments made by her lawyer to the Supreme Court on Wednesday, lead challenger Miller said she did not believe the motion in parliament had any bearing on the case.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 12: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Dec 2016 05:08GMT

USD/JPY - ..... The pair retreated from intra-day fresh 10-month high of 115.23 ahead of Tokyo lunch session on profit taking.

Despite opening near Fri's high of 115.36 (New York), renewed buying sent dlr higher and price ratcheted to 115.62 b4 a wave of yen-buying emerged.
Although present pullback suggests a minor top has been made, the fact that Nikkie 225's intra-day to a fresh 1-year peak of 19280 (currently at 19142) plus firm U.S. Treasury yields suggest buy the greenback on dips is the way to go.

Bids are noted at 115.20/00 area and more below with stops below 114.60.
Offers are tipped at115.50/60 n more above with stops above 116.00.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 13: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Dec 2016 02:31GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Although the greenback continued its recent winning streak on Monday and climbed to a fresh 10-month peak of 116.13 in Europe as gain in the Nikkie to a 1-year high plus rising U.S. Treasury yields (benchmark 10-year bond yield briefly hit fresh 2-year high of 2.528%) boosted risk appetite, broad-based long liquidation in the usd in New York session as investors took risk off the table ahead of today's 2-day Fed rate meeting sent dlr lower to 114.86 in New York afternoon, price briefly fell to 114.74 after hitting stops below 114.80.
However, renewed buying interest emerged at Asian open and lifted the pair.

Intra-day rebound from 114.74 suggests 1st leg of correction from said yesterday's high has ended and choppy range trading is in store with mild upside bias but strong gain is not envisaged.

Bids are noted at 115.00 and more at 114.85/75 with stops below there.
Offers are tipped at 115.50/60 and more above with stops above 116.15.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 13: Intra-Day News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Dec 2016 09:38GMT

GBP/USD - ..... Cable rose to intra-day 1.2711 high after U.K. inflation came in slightly higher than forecast. Reuters reported British inflation hit a more than two-year high last month, pushed up more expensive clothing and the impact of June's Brexit vote on the prices paid by consumers for technology goods.
Consumer prices rose 1.2 percent compared with a year ago, the Office for National Statistics said, and above economists' expectation for a 1.1 percent annual rise in a Reuters poll.

Last month the Bank of England forecast that inflation would surge to about 2.8 percent by mid-2018, as sterling's big fall after Britain's vote to leave the EU pushes up the cost of imports.
The pound's fall - the currency is currently down about 15 percent against the U.S. currency and 8 percent against the euro - has left suppliers and retailers battling for profits as imported goods become more expensive.
There was a respite for sterling in November, which eased the pressure on factories paying for materials and energy during the month, but November's data underscored how inflation in Britain looks set to rise sharply next year.
Bank of England policymakers look set to keep interest rates on hold this week after dropping their signals of another cut and adopting a neutral stance last month.

Last week a BoE survey showed Britons expect a sharp rise in inflation over the coming year and more now believe a hike in interest rates is on the way.
BoE Governor Mark Carney has said the central bank could tolerate some overshoot against its inflation target, to help accommodate economic growth and employment.

While still low by historical standards, British government bond yields have risen sharply on bets of higher inflation spurred by the pound's plunge and, more recently, bets that President-elect Donald Trump's plans to boost fiscal spending would boost prices globally.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 14: Intra-Day News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Dec 2016 01:11GMT

GBP/USD - ..... A piece of Brexit news, Reuters just reported Brexit could hit trade relations between Britain and the U.S, with nearly 40 percent of American firms considering moving their British office to the EU and two-thirds saying the vote is impacting investment choices, according to a survey.

Food and beverage, life sciences and financial services firms were most likely to consider relocating whilst aerospace firms were the least likely, the survey by law firm Gowling WLG said.
Nearly all the 533 companies surveyed said they would require some third-party support to deal with the transition as Britain leaves the European Union, potentially risking part of the close transatlantic relationship between the two nations.

President-elect Donald Trump has also hailed Brexit and said that Britain would not be "back of the queue" for a bilateral trade deal with the United States, opposing comments made by President Obama ahead of the referendum.

British ministers have been meeting top executives from a range of key sectors in recent months as they prepare for formal divorce talks which are due to begin by the end of March.
One of the thorniest issues will be how to restrict freedom of movement in order to bring down immigration, a key concern for many Brexit voters, whilst retaining unfettered access to the single market, fundamental to many businesses.

A third of U.S. business leaders whose firms export to the EU said that two years of regulatory uncertainty as divorce talks unfold could harm them and just over half said they might bypass Britain to do business directly with the European Union.
Gowling WLG surveyed 533 executives from U.S. companies with a turnover of 10 million pounds or more between Sept. 21 and Oct. 18.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 15: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
15 Dec 2016 02:00GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr surged to a fresh 10-month peak of 117.86 n despite early release of upbeat Japanese data. Reuters reported Japanese manufacturing activity grew at the fastest pace in almost a year in December as new orders improved in a sign that domestic demand is gathering strength, a survey showed on Thursday.

The Flash Markit/Nikkei Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for December rose to a seasonally adjusted 51.9 from a final 51.3 in November.
The index remained above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction for the fourth consecutive month and showed activity expanded at the fastest pace since January.

The index for new orders, which measures both domestic and external demand, rose to a preliminary 52.8 from 51.1 in the previous month, also the highest in 11 months.
However, the flash index for new export orders eased slightly to 51.7 from 51.9 in the previous month.

Sentiment among large manufacturers hit a one-year high in December as a weak yen brightened the outlook for exports, the Bank of Japan's closely-watched tankan business sentiment survey showed on Wednesday.
Companies also maintained upbeat capital expenditure plans in the tankan survey, suggesting the economy will pick up pace next year.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 16: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Dec 2016 02:17GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr finally return to its range-bound mode after continuing recent spectacular ascent to a fresh 10-1/2 month high of 118.66 ahead of New York morning, despite intra-day jump after a strong retreat to 117.67 in New York morning, selling interest at 118.63 knocked price lower to 117.79/80 in New York afternoon and intra-day sideways move suggest traders are not eager or tempted to take the buck higher, at least for the time being.

Offer are tipped at 118.40/50 and more above with stops above 118.75, bids are noted at 117.80/70 with stops below 117.60.
However, more buying interest is touted at 117.20-00 area, suggesting buying on dips is the way to go.

U.S. eco. calendar is pretty light (T.G.I.F.) n housing starts at 13:30GMT is the notable one, set forecast for November reading to come in at 1.23 M vs previous reading of 1.32 M.
Later in the day, Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker (non-voter) will be speaking at 17:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 19: Intra-Day News and Views AUD/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
19 Dec 2016 02:00GMT

AUD/USD - .... Aussie shrugged off deepening Australia's budget deficit and edged higher to 0.7313 in Asia. Reuters reported Australia's conservative government on Monday forecast a A$10 billion deterioration in its budget deficit over the next four years but still hoped to snatch a surplus by 2020/21 and forestall a downgrade in its top credit rating.

There have been fears the update could trigger a downgrade in the country's prized triple-A rating and push up borrowing costs on over a trillion dollars of federal, state and bank debt.
Facing slowing economic growth and a seemingly intractable deficit, Treasurer Scott Morrison reaffirmed an aspiration to return to surplus June 2021 through a mixture of spending cuts and tax-raising measures.

A downgrade would also be a political nightmare for the Liberal National government of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, which has long sold itself as a competent economic manager that can be trusted to balance the books.
The budget update showed the government expected a A$36.5 billion deficit for the year to June, slightly narrower than the initial forecast of A$37.1 billion. It then projected a steady, if slow, improvement to A$10 billion by June 2020.

The Treasurer also revised down estimates for gross domestic product growth for this year and next after the A$1.6 trillion economy surprisingly contracted by 0.5 percent in the September quarter, the first shrinkage since 2011.
It now expects GDP growth of 2 percent in 2016/17, down from 2.5 percent, and a pick up to 2.75 percent in 2017/18.

One bright spot has been a recovery in prices for many of Australia's major commodity exports, with coal and iron ore surging in the past few months. If sustained, that will add billions to the tax take and could ease the pressure on the ratings.
And even if the country is downgraded, analysts said they doubted that it would have much of an impact on bond yields or investor confidence.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 20: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Dec 2016 02:10GMT

USD/JPY -..... Dlr maintains a firm undertone in Tokyo trading after yesterday's intra-day wild swings. Although price fell steadily in Asia on Monday as standoff between U.S. and China over the seizure of U.S. Navy's underwater drone led to buying of yen on risk aversion.
Price weakened to 116.99 at European open before staging a rebound to 117.56 but only to tumble to one yen lower to 116.56 ahead of New York midday on news of killing of Russian ambassador in Ankara, Turkey.
However, upbeat comments by Fed Chair Janet Yellen (we did mention this in Monday's 02:50GMT update) lifted price to 117.39/40.

Dlr climbed from 116.99 to 117.41 in early Asian trading, but lack of follow-through buying has caused price to retreat, suggesting sideways swings are in store as market awaits BoJ's announcement around 03:00-03:30GMT at the end of its 2-day meeting.
Offers are tipped at 117.40/50 with stops above 117.60, more selling interest is touted at 118.00/10.
Bids are noted at 117.00-116.95 n more below with stops reported below 116.50.

The only eco. data coming out of the U.S. is Redbook retail sales which will be ignored by the market as fund flows are expected to have a direct influence on intra-day price swings as trading volume reduces ahead of upcoming X'mas break.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 21: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Dec 2016 03:01GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr pares yesterday's rally from 116.99 (AUS) to as high as 118.24 in Europe as mildly dovish comments by BoJ Governor Kuroda at post-BoJ meeting press conference sparked off active yen-selling.
However, price was unable to capitalise on intra-day gain as rally in the eur/usd in New York morning led to broad-based usd's weakness, knocking price to 117.66.

Despite dlr's initial gain to 118.07 shortly after Tokyo open as o/n rise to record highs on Wall Street boosted risk appetite, dlr soon gave up short-term gain and turned lower, some cited upbeat assessment of overall Japanese economy by Japan's gov't (see 02:01GMT update) triggered yen-buying, dlr fell to 117.55 after tripping some stops below 117.60.
Intra-day weakness suggests dlr may not be able to re-visit its last week's 10-1/2 month peak at 118.66 any time soon, so range trading is the order of the day, possible for rest of this week as trading volume is expected to thin out fairly soon esp. on Fri when Japanese financial market is closed for Emperor's birthday.

Offers are tipped at 118.00/00 and more at 118.20/30 with stops above 118.45 but more selling interest is reported at 118.60/70.
Some bids are noted at 117.50-40 with stops below there, more buying is reported at 117.00-116.90 with large stops touted below 116.50.

The only economic data due out in the U.S. later today is existing home sales for November.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 21: Intra-Day News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Dec 2016 10:05GMT

GBP/USD - 1.2341... Despite initial rebound from Asian low at 1.2367 to 1.2385 (Reuters), the British pound met renewed selling and tumbled to as low as 1.2324 in European morning.
However, failure to penetrate yesterday's 1-month trough at 1.2313 triggered short-covering n price rebounded to 1.2347.

Offers are now seen at 1.2380/90 n more above at 1.2400/10 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.2290/00, suggesting further choppy trading would be seen ahead of New York open.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 22: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Dec 2016 01:44GMT

USD/JPY - 117.58... Trading the dlr proved to be pretty tricky yesterday as price swings from initial loss to gain, depending which intra-day session you were trading.
The pair came under renewed active selling at 118.07 in Asia Wednesday, mainly on active yen-buying, price fell to 117.39 ahead of European open and dlr later hit session lows of 117.11 also ahead of New York open before staging a short-covering bounce to 117.86.

Well, it looks like the pair is not going anywhere in a hurry, esp. ahead of Friday's market holiday in Japan, therefore, further 'gyrations inside this week's 116.56-118.24 range are expected to continue, some may see a 'triangle' pattern from 118.66 is unfolding, suggesting buying dlr on dips is still the preferred game until a see a daily close below this week's low at 116.56 (Monday).

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 23: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Dec 2016 02:10GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr went nowhere in lack lustre Thursday's session and is doing nothing in subdued Asian morning today as Japanese market is closed for Emperor's Birthday, so traders can go for an early X'mas celebratory lunch.

Despite yesterday's brief jump to 117.88 after upbeat U.S. GDP revision, intra-day rally in eur/usd swiftly knocked dlr lower to session lows of 117.27 but subsequent broad-based rebound in the usd lifted the pair to 117.69/70 before moving narrowly in thin New York afternoon trading.

Range trading is expected to continue in European morning, however, pay attention to release of U.S. data later in the day which may cause some whippy move in a holiday-thinned New York market, U.S. will release University of Michigan consumer confidence n then new home sales.

Offers are tipped at 11765/70 n more at 117.85/95 with stops above 118.10, however, more sell interest is reported at 118.30/40. Some bids are noted at 117.30-20 n more below with stops below 117.00

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 28: Intra-Day News and Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 Dec 2016 07:31GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Euro pares intra-day gain at European open after price extended gain from yesterday's 1.0432 low to 1.0480 in Asia.
Seller emerged quickly pushed price back down to 1.0465, suggesting consolidation with downside bias is in store.

Offers are tipped at 1.0480/90 with stops above last week's high at 1.0499.
Bids are noted at 1.0455/50 and more below with stops reported below 1.0425.

Euro area economic calendar is very light with Italy's December consumer n business confidence the only 2 data due out at 09:00GMT.
U.S. economic calendar is pretty light today with November pending home sales the only data for traders to chew on.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 29: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Dec 2016 03:39GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr is nursing o/n losses in heavy Tokyo morning session as broad-based yen buying which started in New York midday sent the pair sharply lower from 117.72 to 117.06 as weakness in U.S. stocks triggered buying of yen on risk aversion, price fell further to 116.85 in Australia and yen buying continued when Nikkie fell in early trading (currently at 19190 down 260 points) and hit intra-day low of 116.68.

The lack of a decent bounce suggests dlr would remain under pressure in Europe as investors are taking risk off the table ahead of year end and yesterday's decline in U.S. Treasury yields add further to dlr's woe, suggesting selling the greenback on recovery is still recommended.

Offers have been lowered 117.00/10 and more above with some stops above 117.40.
Bids are noted at 116.70-60 with fairly large stops touted below 116.50.

U.S. will later release weekly jobless claims, trade balance n whole inventories, all due out at 13:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 29: Intra-Day News and Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Dec 2016 06:20GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Just as if you think the single would re-vist last Tuesday's 13-year low at 1.0352 after yesterday's sharp selloff just ahead of European open at 1.0480 to as low as 1.0372 near New York midday, intra-day decline in dlr/yen or rather active gain in the yen led to broad-based usd's weakness in Asia, sending the single currency above 1.0427/32 res area to as high as 1.0465, suggesting said 1.0352 bottom would be 2016 trough in the history book.

Current firmness ahead of European open suggests euro still has legs to move higher towards 1.0499 (last week's reaction high) and stops above 1.0500 are now in focus.
Bids are noted at 1.0440-30 and more below with stops below 1.0370.
Some offers are touted at 1.0480/90. Therefore, buying euro is favoured but beware of possible sharp retreat if euro is unable to penetrate 1.0499/00.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Dec 30: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
30 Dec 2016 03:00GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr pares initial weakness to a fresh 2-week trough of 116.05 ahead of Asian open as intra-day sharp jump in the eur/usd led to broad-based usd's weakness.
However, lack of follow-through selling below Thursday's 116.23 low quickly lifted the pair and price moved narrowly sideways in subdued Tokyo trading as many traders have closed their books for the year, suggesting one has to look to Europe for bigger price swings.

If you are still trading, then the only U.S. eco. data to trade on is Dec Chicago PMI, street forecast is 57.6 vs previous reading of 57.6 too.

Bids are noted at 116.20-00 area with some stops below there, offers are tipped at 116.70/80 with stops reported above 117.00.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 03: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Jan 2017 07:26GMT

USD/JPY - ..... The pair rallies at European open as a bout of broad-based usd buying sent price to intra-day high of 117.80 following yesterday's gain to 117.67 in holiday-thinned Monday session.

As mentioned earlier, although dlr fell initially on Friday due to initial sharp jump in eur/usd as investors took risk off the table on the last trading day in 2016, dlr bulls quickly returned at Asian open (Japn's market is closed for holiday today) and lifted price from 117.22 (AUS) but then moved narrowly under Europe comes in.

Present firmness suggests dlr still has legs to move higher, order book is pretty light but there is market chatter of resting offers by Japanese exporters at 118.00 and above, so dlr needs to climb above 118.00/10 decisively to retain bullishness.
Bids are noted at 117.50-40 and more at 117.30-20.

Today is PMI day n U.S. will release Redbook retail sales, Markit mfg PMI, construction spending and last but not least ISM mfg PMI and these data will surely have a direct influence on intra-day price swings, so watch out.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jan 04: Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Jan 2017 04:07GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr pares yesterday's losses in New York morning in Asian trading today after a 'roller-coaster' ride in Tuesday's session. Price met renewed buying just ahead of Tokyo open at 117.54 and climbed back to 118.19 as a hefty intra-day 400+ points rally in the Nikkie (currently at 19530, up 415 points) boosted risk sentiment, however, price has retreated after meeting offers at 118.20/30 capped dlr's gain, suggesting range trading is in store.

Tuesday's rally from 117.22 (AUS) to 118.61 in New York morning and then subsequent selloff to 117.23 suggests further choppy swings below Dec's 10-1/2 month peak at 118.66 would continue.
Bids are noted at 117.50 n more at 117.25-20 with some stops below there, offers are tipped at 118.20/30 n more above with stops above 118.70/75.

As mentioned in yesterday's update, pay attention to release of U.S. data as dlr hit session high on Tuesday at 118.61 after upbeat U.S. data (construction spending and ISM mfg PMI). Today, U.S. will release Redbook retail sales and ISM NY index.