AceTraderFx: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 02: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views AUD/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
02 Feb 2017 01:12GMT

AUD/USD - .... Reuters just reported Australia boasted its biggest trade surplus on record in December as surging commodity prices showered the resource-rich nation in cash, a windfall that could lessen the risk of a downgrade to its triple A credit rating.
Thursday's data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed a trade surplus of A$3.51 billion in December, handily outpacing forecasts of A$2.2 billion.

The previous month was also revised up sharply to A$2.0 billion, a double win that lifted the local dollar a quarter U.S. cent to $0.7624. Exports jumped by 5.3 percent to a record A$32.6 billion, led by double-digit gains in coal and iron ore, while imports edged up only 0.7 percent.
For the December quarter as a whole, the country notched up a surplus of A$4.8 billion in a startling turnaround from the previous quarter's A$3.8 billion shortfall.

That will also sharply shrink the fourth-quarter current account deficit, a timely improvement given S&P Global Ratings has cited a reliance on foreign funding as one reason it might cut Australia's top credit rating.
The rush of export earnings will also ripple through the economy via higher profits, incomes and tax receipts. That will again be a timely source of support given another engine of growth - residential construction - looks to be near its peak.

A separate report out on Thursday showed approvals to build new homes dipped 1.2 percent in December, the fourth fall in five months.
The pipeline of work yet to be done is still at record highs and should last longer in this cycle as much more of the construction comprises high-rise apartment towers.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 03: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Feb 2017 09:30GMT

GBP/USD - ......Reuters just reported growth in Britain's services sector slowed for the first time in four months in January, dipping just below its long-run average, as businesses battled the sharpest rise in costs in more than five years, a closely watched survey showed on Friday.

Britain's economy unexpectedly outpaced all its major peers last year, wrong footing those who expected an immediate hit from June's Brexit vote, and the spotlight is now on how resilient it will prove this year as price rises start to bite more.
Friday's data suggest any slowdown is likely to be gradual.
The Markit/CIPS services purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to a three-month low of 54.5 last month from December's 15-month high of 56.2, at the bottom end of a range of forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists.
This follows drops in PMIs for the smaller manufacturing and construction sectors earlier this week. Nonetheless, Markit said that together they still pointed to growth of 0.5 percent in the first three months of 2017, matching the BoE's latest forecast.

Services businesses said they were feeling more upbeat due to new orders, products and markets, as well as continued low interest rates and what they saw as more clarity about Britain's exit from the European Union.
Manufacturers had previously reported the sharpest rise in raw material costs on record, and services businesses on Friday said their costs were rising at the fastest since March 2011 due to sterling's fall since the referendum.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 06: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Feb 2017 07:03GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Euro showed 'muted' reaction to upbeat German data. Reuters reported higher demand for capital goods at home and abroad drove the biggest monthly increase in German industrial orders in around 2-1/2 years in December, data showed on Monday.
The single currency pared Friday's gain and eased ahead of European open after rising marginally above Friday's 1.0797 to 1.0800 in Australia following Sunday's euro comments by German Finance Minister Schaeuble (see 00:40GMT update), suggesting range trading is in store in European morning before prospect of further gain.

Offers are tipped at 1.0800/10 and more above with stops above 1.0850, more stops are reported above 1.0875.
Initial bids are noted at 1.0770-60 with some stops below 1.0750.

Germany will release industrial orders for Dec, then followed by EU Sentix investor confidence index.
Later, ECB's Frank Smets, Director General Economics (newly appointed) will speak at 09:30GMT and ECB President Draghi will speak on the occasion of the ECON hearing at 14:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 07: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Feb 2017 02:22GMT

USD/JPY - 111.79.. The greenback languishes near Asian 9-week low at 111.61 in relatively subdued Tokyo trading on Tuesday.
Despite staging an intra-day bounce from 111.99 to 112.58 on short covering in New York morning, the pair fell in New York afternoon on broad-based yen buying partly on risk aversion as well as further drop in U.S. treasury yields, yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. note fell from 2.47% to 2.406% n fell further to 2.384% today.

The lack of a rebound in Asia despite early hawkish comments by Philly Fed President Harker (see 22:37GMT update) suggests as long as previous 122.06 low (now res) holds, downside bias remains for further weakness.
Offers are tipped at 111.85/95 and more above with stops above 122.30.
Initial bids are noted at 111.60-50 with stops below there, however, some buying interest is touted at 111.40-30.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 08: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Feb 2017 01:13GMT

GBP/USD - ...... Sterling swung the most vs its peer currencies in Tuesday's hectic trading.
Reuters reported earlier Sterling bounced back from its weakest point in two weeks against the dollar on Tuesday as investors jumped on signs of growing pressure on the government to give parliament a greater say in the final deal to leave the European Union.

Dealers said the pound's gains back to 1.2547 from an earlier low of $1.2347 were driven chiefly by junior Brexit minister David Jones' statement that parliament would be given a "meaningful" vote on the deal.

Jones later reiterated the harder line that there would be no renegotiation of the terms the government brings back to parliament. But the mixed messages were read as more evidence of pressure on Prime Minister Theresa May to soften a stance that prioritises control of immigration over membership of the bloc's lucrative single market.
The gains came after a rough few days for sterling, due largely to a run of surveys suggesting that the economy and consumer demand is finally softening in the face of Brexit-related risks.
Bank of England policymaker Kristin Forbes added to support for the pound by saying the bank should raise interest rates soon if growth remains solid and inflation continues to accelerate.

Further batches of downbeat data - this time from the BRC measure of retail sales and the first fall in UK house prices since the vote to leave the European Union last June - may add to jitters in the days ahead.
While Forbes was read as sounding a harder line on rates than the BoE last week, the data has highlighted concerns over how consumers will bear up in the face of price rises caused by an almost 20 percent fall in sterling.

Another piece of o/n news worth noting which will affect the pound. Reuters reported earlier Britain will not seek further talks with the European Union if parliament rejects the exit deal it reaches, the government said on Tuesday, as ministers defeated attempts to give lawmakers more say on the terms of the final agreement.

The statement, which echoes Prime Minister Theresa May's stance that "no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain" came as parliament debated a law that would give her the power to begin exit negotiations with the EU.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 09: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Feb 2017 02:19GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Although the pair remained under pressure in NY morning trading yesterday on broad-based USD weakness and also yen buying due to continued decline in U.S. Treasury yields (benchmark 10-year yields fell from 2.40% to 2.33%) as political uncertainty prompted investor to be active buyers in U.S. Treasuries as safe-haven assets, a late rebound in the greenback lifted price to 112.22.

Despite dlr's initial weakness to 11.75 in Australia, buying by Japanese importers lifted price in Tokyo trading, dlr climbed back to 112.34, suggesting the daily price swings seen in last 2 sessions above 111.60 would continue.
Having said that, reported offers at 112.50/55 are likely to cap intra-day gain and dlr may well fall back down again in European trading.
Bids are noted at 112.00 and more at 11.80-75 with stops touted below 111.60.
A mixture of offers and stops is reported at 112.55/60.

U.S. eco. calendar is fairly thin with the usual weekly jobless claims and wholesale inventories being the 2 sets of data due out later in the day.
Do pay attention to speeches by St. Louis Fed President Bullard (non-voter) at 14:10GMT n then Chicago Fed President Evans (voter) at 18:10GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 10: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Feb 2017 02:39GMT

USD/JPY - 113.70.. The greenback stands tall in active Asian trading on Fri following yesterday's rally in New York morning after Trump's said a 'phenomenal' tax plan will be announced in a few weeks, his comments revived last year's Trump-election win euphoria and sent dlr flying to 113.34.

Renewed buying ahead of Tokyo open easily pushed price above said o/n high and intra-day rally in the Nikkie (up by as much as 2.5% following gains in the U.S. stocks to record highs) boosted risk sentiment and triggered broad-based yen selling.
To add fuel to intra-day dlr rally, purchase of more long-dated JGBs by BoJ sent dlr to fresh 1-week high of 113.80.

What a difference a day made, dlr was under pressure 24 hours ago and yesterday's Trump's comments and his meeting with Japan's PM Abe today followed by a golf match on Saturday has boosted market optimism, so buying dlr on dips is the way to go.
Bids are noted at 113.50-40 n more below with stops below 113.00.
Offers are tipped above 114.80/90 with stops above 115.00.

Pay attention to U.S. data later today starting with export and import price index and Uni. of Michigan consumer confidence.
Data to be released today:

Japan CGPI, China exports, imports, trade balance, France industrial production, Italy industrial output, UK construction output, industrial output, manufacturing output, trade balance, Canada employment, U.S. export price, import price and consumer sentiment.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 13: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Feb 2017 02:17GMT

USD/JPY - ..... The pair rallied shortly after Mon open in New Zealand as Sunday's missile test by N.Korea stirred up another geo-political unrest on the Korean peninsular (see Sunday's updates).
However, the Nikkie is largely unaffected by this and is currently up buy 0.5% at 19479.
Traders quickly sold the yen broadly and sent price higher above Friday's 113.86 ahead of Tokyo open, dlr climbed to 114.17 after tripping stops above 114.00 before easing.

Intra-day pullback from 114.17 suggests consolidation is in store and dlr is likely to in demand on dips as market awaits more reaction when European traders step in, so trading the pair from long side is favoured.
Bids are noted at 113.85-75 and more above with stops below 113.20.
Some offers are tipped at 114.20/30 with stops above 114.30/40.

As no U.S. data is due out today, order flows will have great influence on intra-day price swings.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 14: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Feb 2017 02:12GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr edges higher in Tokyo morning after y'esteray's intra-day wild swings following intra-day retreat from 114.17 (Asia) to 113.45. Despite U.S. stocks climbing to record highs n continued rise U.S. Treasury yields, the pair was kept range bound in directionless New York session.

Having said that, as renewed buying interest above 113.45 emerged in Asia has lifted price, suggesting consolidation with upside bias is in store.
Bids are noted at 113.55-45 with stops below there, more buying interest is reported at 113.05/00.
Offers are tipped at 113.80/90 n more above with stops above 114.20.

Pay attention release of key U.S. eco. data starting with PPI n then Redbook retail sales. Several Fed officials will be speaking later in the day but market is paying close attention to Fed Yellen's semi-annual testimony b4 the Congress at 15:00GMT. Traders will listen to her (Fed) outlook on the central banks' monetary policy n the economy. So if her outlook is mildly hawkish, the USD will rally.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 14: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
15 Feb 2017 02:05GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Euro is nursing losses after yesterday's resumption of recent decline to a 4-week trough of 1.0561 after Fed Yellen's hawkish testimony before the U.S. Congress.
Although short-term specs made another attempt to know the pair lower at Asian open, buying interest (probably profit taking bids) at 1.0565 contained weakness, suggesting euro would move sideways before prospect of further weakness later in the day, so selling the pair on recovery is the way to go.

Offers are tipped at 1.0580/90 with some stops above 1.0600, however, more selling interest is reported at 1.0625/35.
On the downside, initial bids are noted at 1.0565-60 with some stops below 1.05550.

Euro area economic calendar is very light with EU trade balance being the only data in European morning, so traders will pay more attention to U.S. inflation data and retails sales at 13:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 16: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Feb 2017 04:09GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0617.. The single currency stand tall in Asian morning after rallying from a 5-week trough of 1.0522 in New York morning. Despite hitting said session lows immediately after upbeat U.S. data, broad-based long liquidation in the USD swiftly lifted euro and the pair climbed swiftly to intra-day high of 1.0608 ahead of New York midday and later move broadly sideways in New York afternoon.
More buying emerged in Australia today n euro climbed to 1.0624 after tripping some stops above 1.0610.

Well, as euro has finally cut its recent losing streak which began at the start of this month, 1-2 days of choppy consolidation is in store n one can expect traders' interest to trade on both sideways of the market.
Offers are tipped at 1.0630/40 with stops reported above 1.0660, initial bids are noted at 1.0595/85 with some stops below there, however, more buying interest is reported at 1.0560-40 area.

Eco. calendar for euro area countries is very thin with Frances unemployment due out at 06:30GMT.
ECB will release minutes of its last monetary policy meeting at 12:30GMT.
ECB's Benoit Coeure will make a keynote speech followed by panel discussion at an event on "25 years after Maastricht : The future of money and finance in Europe" in Maastricht, Holland at 14:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 16: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Feb 2017 09:10GMT

GBP/USD - 1.2489.. Despite yesterday's selloff after being hit by a double whammy of slow UK's wage growth in European morning and then upbeat U.S. data, cable rallied from a 1-week low of 1.2383 in New York morning to 1.2481 and later traded sideways which continued in Asian session today.

Price rose to 1.2498 in European morning due partly to renewed USD weakness as well as cross-buying in sterling, suggesting near term upside bias remains.
Having said that, don't get overly bullish on cable as price continues to 'gyrate' inside recent broad range of 1.2347-1.2582 and position takers are probably on the sideline ahead of Friday's release of UK retail sales, so range trading should continue today.
Bids are noted at 1.2460-50 with stops below 1.2430.
Offers are tipped at 1.2495/00 with some stops above there, however, more selling interest is touted at 1.2540/50.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 17: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Feb 2017 02:00GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr remained on the back foot in hectic trading on Thursday and tumbled from 114.31 (Aust.) to as low as 113.09 in New York afternoon due to broad-based USD weakness as well as active yen buying before staging a minor short covering rebound near New York close.

The greenback pared yesterday's losses at Tokyo open on buying by Japanese importers, suggesting 113.09 low print will remain during Asian session.
However, as USD has fallen broadly since Wed despite upbeat U.S. data and with U.S. Treasury yields falling in last 2 days (benchmark U.S. 10-year yield dropped from 2.524% on Wednesday to 2.438% yesterday), price is expected to meet renewed selling in European session.

Offers are tipped at 113.50/60 and more above with stops reported above 114.00.
Initial bids are noted at 113.30-20 with stops below 113.00. No U.S. data is due out today after pretty heavy eco. calendar in last few days suggest funds flow and technical trading will have a great influence on intra-day price swings, so be nimble and be quick and T.G.I.F. (note U.S. markets are closed for President's Day holiday, so beware of pre-long w/end position unwinding in New York session later in the day).

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 17: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Feb 2017 09:37GMT

GBP/USD - 1.2415.. Cable tumbled to intra-day low of 1.2409 after downbeat U.K. retail sales. Reuters reported British retail sales unexpectedly fell in January, adding to a slump in December, showing that consumers are reining in their spending as inflation rises after last year's Brexit vote.

Shoppers have driven Britain's economy since June's decision by voters to leave the European Union. But they are widely expected to turn more cautious as prices rise following the fall in the value of the pound after the referendum.
Official data on Friday showed retail sales volumes fell by 0.3 percent month-on-month in January, much weaker than economists' forecasts in a Reuters poll for a 0.9 percent increase. No forecaster had expected a fall.

The BoE expects rising inflation means growth in the real incomes of British households is likely to falter later this year and stall completely in 2018, raising the risk of a slowdown in the overall economy. The BoE has signaled it is in no rush to raise record-low interest rates.

The ONS said retail prices rose 1.9 percent in January compared with a year ago, the most since July 2013 and up sharply from December's 0.9 percent. The rise in motor fuel prices, up 16.1 percent, was the biggest since September 2011.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Feb 2017 03:00GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Despite moving narrowly in holiday-thinned N. American session, the pair climbed ahead of Tokyo open, intra-day gain accelerated due to broad-based USD strength, price rallied to 113.57 after tripping stops above 113.25, then 113.50, suggesting upside bias remains for further headway to 114.00/05, so buying dlr on dips is the way to go.

Bids are noted above 113.40-30 and more below, offers are tipped at 113.80/90 with stops above 114.00.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data starting with Redbook retail sales, Markit mfg n services PMIs.
A number of Fed officials will be speaking with Minneappolis Fed's Kashkari at 13:50GMT, Philly Fed's Harker at 17:00GMT n then San Francisco Fed's Williams at 20:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Feb 2017 02:12GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr moves broadly sideways in Tokyo trading after yesterday's rally from 113.09 (AUS) to 113.78 in New York morning due to broad-based USD strength and although price retreated to 113.41 after soft U.S. mfg and services PMIs, renewed buying quickly lifted price, dlr later climbed back to 113.73 in Australia on Wednesday.
However, despite mildly hawkish comments by Cleveland Fed President Mester (non-voter) in an interview with CNBC and Bloomberg TV this morning, price fell in Asian morning due to cross-buying in yen esp vs eur, suggesting further sideways swings below said Tuesday's high would continue.

Bids are noted at 113.45-40 and more below with stops below 113.20.
Offers are tipped at 113.70/80 with stops above there, more stops are touted above 114.00.

Market focus today is release of last Fed minutes at 19:00GMT (where most most of traders will not be round), however, pay attention to U.S. eco. data later in the day where Redbook retail sales will be released at 13:55GMT and then existing home sales at 15:00GMT. Fed Gov. Jerome Powell will speak at 18:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 23: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Feb 2017 02:21GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0552.. Euro is currently trading almost exactly where its was 24 hours ago after Wednesday's 'roller-coaster' rise.
Although price met renewed broad-based bashing at 1.0557 in Asia and tumbled to a 6-week trough of 1.0494 after tripping stops below 1.0520 in hectic European trading.
Price later rallied to 1.0566 on short covering in New York morning, despite a brief retreat to 1.0531 after release of Fed minutes, euro later climbed to session highs of 1.0573 due to broad-based USD retreat.

Euro's rally from 1.0494 to as high as 1.0573 has finally cut recent losing streak and subsequent retreat suggests consolidation is in store until European open.
Expect euro demand on dips as market is obviously short, so buying on dips is favoured where bids are noted at 1.0530-20 and more below with stops below 1.0490.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.0570/80 with stops touted above 1.0600.

U.S. eco. calendar is pretty light today with weekly jobless claims and month home price being the only data due out in New York morning.
Outgoing Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart (retiring on Feb 28) will speak at 13:35GMT and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (voter) will later speak at 18:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 24: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Feb 2017 02:08GMT

USD/JPY - .... Dlr pares some of yesterday's loss and rebounded to 112.96 in Tokyo morning on bargain buying by Japanese names (importers) after hitting a near 2-week trough of 112.55 in New York Thursday.

Looks like range trading above 112.55 would continue in Asia with mild upside bias, however, market may well take another poke at 112.55 later in the day.
Offers are tipped at 113.00/10 with stops above 113.30, more stops are reported above 113.80.
Bids are noted at 112.60-55 with stops below 112.50, however, there is market chatter of fairly good buying above 112.00.

Later in the day, U.S. will release consumer confidence n new home sales at 15:00GMT.
No Fed official is scheduled to speak today, so we may have a quiet session in New York today and T.G.I.F.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 24: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Feb 2017 08:30GMT

GBP/USD - ...... Despite rebounding to 1.2561 in Australia, failure to penetrate yesterday's high at 1.2562 triggered profit-taking n the British pound retreated to 1.2537 in Asian morning.
However, cable found renewed buying there and rose to 1.2570 in tandem with euro ahead of European open and continues to trade with a firm bias.

Bids are now seen at 1.2490/00 and more below at 1.2460/70 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 1.2590/00, suggesting choppy trading with upside bias would be seen.

Data to be released on Friday:
France consumer confidence, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, business confidence, consumer confidence, UK mortgage approvals, Canada CPI, U.S. consumer sentiment and new home sales.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 28: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 Feb 2017 03:13GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Despite extending recent upmove to 1.0630 near New York midday, the single currency pared intra-day gain due to usd's rebound, price slipped to 1.0581, then marginally lower to 1.0569 in Asia after hitting some stops below 1.0580.

Looks like the correction from last Wednesday's 6-week low at 1.0494 may well have ended yesterday and consolidation with downside bias is seen as market is looking forward to Trump's 'Big' infrastructure (spending) speech which may speak another round Trump rally in the USD.

Offers are tipped at 1.0590/00 and more with stops above 1.0630 whilst some bids are noted at 1.0560-50 with stops below there, suggesting selling euro on recovery is favoured.

Euro area will release a slew of eco. data starting with Germany's retail sales, France's PPI, Italy's CPI n HICP during European morning.