AceTraderFx: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 01: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Mar 2017 03:55GMT

USD/JPY - 112.93.. Dlr pares intra-day gain as U.S. Trump delivers his 1st speech to the Congress. The pair staged an impressive rally from yesterday's 3-week low of 111.70 as hawkish comments by influential New York Fed President William Dudley, price climbed to 112.88 near New York close and rose further to 113.38 in early Asian trading on broad-based USD gain.

Present retreat from 113.38 as Trump only announced a $1 trillion investment in infrastructure and no specifics on tax reforms have been give, so expect some unwinding of long USD positions before prospect of further gain later in the day. Bids are noted at 112.80-70 and more below with stops below 112.50.
Offers are tipped at 113.30/40 with stops above 113.50.

We have yet to see reaction from European traders on Fed Dudley's hawkish comments n Trump's speech, after that, U.S. will release a slew of eco. data at the start of the month which include PCE, personal consumption, Markit mfg PMI, construction spending, ISM mfg PMI n last but not least, Fed Beige book at 19:00GMT. Dallas Fed President Kaplan (voter) will speak at 18:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 02: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
02 Mar 2017 03:00GMT

USD/JPY - ...... The greenback stand tall in Asian trading following this following this week's impressive rally from Tuesday's 2-1/2 week low of 111.70 to 114.05 (New York) yesterday, price extended yesterday's gain to 114.16 at Tokyo open as rise in U.S. stocks markets to record highs (the Dow closed above 21000 mark) sent the Nikkie higher to a 14-1/2 month top of 19668, also higher U.S. Treasury yields boosted risk appetite for the dlr, leading to more broad-based selling in yen.

Although profit taking briefly pushed price lower to 113.83, renewed buying emerged ans lifted price, suggesting the pair will continue this week's upmove after consolidation.
Bids are noted at 113.85-75 and more below with stops below 113.30.
Some offers are tipped at 114.15-25 with stops above 114.50, suggesting buying dlr on dips is the way to go as latest hawkish comments by senior Fed officials (see earlier updates) have raised market expectation of a rate hike at next March 15-16 Fed meeting.

U.S. will release weekly jobless claims and ISM NY (bus conditions) index later in the day.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 03: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Mar 2017 03:15GMT

EUR/USD - The euro survived another day of selling on Thursday as despite ratcheting lower from 1.0546 in Europe to 1.0496 in New York afternoon, bids above last Wed's 6-week low lifted the pair and price staged a short-covering rebound at Asian open today, climbing back to 1.0523 ahead of Tokyo lunch session.

Looks like more choppy trading above 1.0494 would be seen in European morning, however, intra-day weakness in the antipodean currencies suggests selling the euro on recovery in anticipation of recent decline is favoured.
Offfers are noted at 1.0525/30 and more above with stops above 1.0550, more selling interest is tipped at 1.0560/70 with stops above 1.0575.
Initial bids are reported at 1.0500-1.0490 with stops below there.

Today is PMI day in the euro zone, Germany will release retail sales 1st, then Italy's services PMI, the same from France, then Germany and the EU.
Italy will release GDP and then EU retail sales.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 06: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Mar 2017 02:13GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr remains under pressure in Asian trading on Monday as early breaking news that North Korea had launched missiles into the Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone lifted geo-political tension and then triggered broad-based yen buying on risk aversion.
Price fell from intra-day high of 114.14 (AUS) to 113.72 after Japan's officials lodged protest to the missile firing.

The fact dlr had fallen broadly in post-Yellen's New York session Friday due to active liquidation of long USD positions on profit taking suggests consolidation with downside bias is in store and intra-day weakness in the Nikkie (currently at 19372, down 97 points) pullback in U.S. Treasury yields (the benchmark 10-year retreated from Friday's high of 2.521% to a low of 2.467% today) should pressure the greenback in Tokyo trading.

Offers are tipped at 114.05/15 and more above with stops above 114.60.
Bids are noted at 113.75-65 and below with some stops below 113.45.

U.S. eco. calendar is very light today with factory orders being the only data due out at 15:00GMT. However, later in the day, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (voter) will speak on "A View From the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis" at the National Association for Business Economics 2017 policy conference at 20:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 07: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Mar 2017 01:05GMT

GBP/USD - ...... A piece of downbeat eco. news. Reuters reported British consumers are cutting back on non-essential spending as the impact of last year's Brexit vote pushes up the cost of their day-to-day shopping, two surveys showed on Tuesday.
In a fresh sign of caution among consumers - who helped the economy withstand the Brexit shock last year - the British Retail Consortium industry group and Barclaycard reported signs of weakening demand for more expensive items.

The spending power of households is being stretched by the fall in the value of the pound since Britain's referendum decision in June to leave the European Union and by a rise in global oil prices.
Inflation has risen to nearly 2 percent and many economists think it will hit 3 percent this year.

British finance minister Philip Hammond is due to announce an annual budget statement on Wednesday and has signalled he will keep money in reserve in case the economy needs help to get through a slowdown in the economy as Britain leaves the EU.

The BRC said total sales rose in value terms by 0.4 percent in February compared with the same month last year, stronger than a 0.1 percent increase in January but below the 12-month average of 0.9 percent.

On a like-for-like basis - which excludes new store openings - sales fell by 0.4 percent, a slightly smaller fall than January's decline of 0.6 percent but the first back-to-back two-month dip since March and April last year.

Economists taking part in a Reuters poll had expected like-for-like sales to rise by 0.2 percent.

The Bank of England is watching closely to see if households rein their spending as it weighs up whether the economy needs more monetary stimulus to spur demand or an interest rate hike to curb inflation.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 08: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Mar 2017 03:10GMT

USD/JPY - ..... The pair slipped to 113.75 in Asian trading on intra-day renewed cross-buying in yen as lack of follow-through buying following Tuesday's gain to 114.15 in New York morning triggered some liquidation in long USD position.

Looks like sideways range trading in in store in Asia as market is in wait-n-see mode ahead of Friday's key U.S. jobs report.
Having said that, rise in U.S. Treasury yields in last few days (benchmark 10-yer yield is currently at 2.5124%, now far from February's high at 2.5240%) suggests dlr would be supported on dips, so buying on further decline is still recommended.
Offers are tipped at 113.95/05 and more above with stops above 114.20.
Bids are noted at 113.75-70 and more below with stops below 113.50.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. dat, starting with mortgage applications followed by important ADP private employment (forecast for Feb is 180K gain vs previous reading of 246K), then labor costs, productivity, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 08: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Mar 2017 02:00GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Euro remains under pressure in subdued Asian trading as traders are mostly on the sideline ahead of ECB rate decision later in the day.
Although price briefly dipped to session lows of 1.0535 after release of robust U.S. private jobs report, euro quickly staged a short-covering bounce to 1.0562 but the pair then ratcheted lower to 1.0536 in New York afternoon, suggesting intra-day downside bias remains.

Offers are tipped at 1.0560/70 and more above with stops above 1.0580, more stops are reported above 1.0600.
Initial bids are noted at 1.0535-25 and more at 1.0505-00 with fairly large stops below 1.0490, suggesting selling euro on recovery is the way to go.

No eco. data is due out today but German FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble will meet U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in Berlin later today.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 10: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Mar 2017 02:00GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr stands head and shoulders above its major peer currencies in Friday's Tokyo morning and hit a fresh 6-week high of 115.26 after penetrating yesterday's 115.00 (New York).

Despite moving narrowly but with a firm undertone in Australia, buying emerged at 114.88 sent price swiftly higher, the pair then rallied to 115.26 after tripping stops above 115.00/05.
Traders cited continued rise in U.S. yields in Asia was the main driver, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed to a neat 3-month high of 2.624% vs Thursday's high of 2.609%.
In addition, intra-day gain in the Nikkie (currently at 19550 and up 1.2%) is boosting risk sentiment, leading to broad-based selling in the yen vs usd, eur, gbp, aud and nzd etc.

With plenty of positive fundamentals supporting the greenback, price can only head North, right. If U.S. jobs report n average wage growth come in as per street forecast or well above in the former (after Wednesday's monster gain in private payrolls), then this week's ascent may accelerate.
Bids are noted at 115.00-114.80 area with some stops below 114.50.
Offers are tipped at 115.35/45 with stops above 115.60.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 13: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Mar 2017 02:27GMT

USD/JPY - ..... The pair moved sideways in subdued Tokyo trading on Monday after tumbling from Friday's 7-week high of 115.51 to 114.66 due to broad-based usd decline in post-NFP trading as well as strg retreat in the U.S. Treasury yields (benchmark 10-year yield hit a near 3-week peak of 2.624% b4 pullback back to 2.575%, currently at 2.585%).

Although price dipped marginally lower below said Friday's 114.66 low to 114.64 at New Zealand open, lack of follow-through selling lifted dlr n the pair then edged higher following release of downbeat Japan's machinery orders.
Looks like sideways move would continue in Asia and intra-day broad-based usd's softness suggests selling the pair on recovery is recommended for another corrective fall later in the day.
Offers are tipped at 115.00/10 and more above with stops above 114.40.
Initial bids are noted at 114.70-90 with stops below 114.50.

No U.S. eco. data is due out n N. America has pushed their clocks forward by one hour on Sunday, so European traders have a shorter lunch break in next 2 weeks if they follow or trade on U.S. data.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 14: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Mar 2017 03:10GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Euro remains on the back foot in subdued Asian trading after extending decline from Monday's fresh 1-month high of 1.0714 to 1.0645 ahead of Asian open.

Although some traders attributed to Monday's intra-day decline to dovish comments by ECB officials Smets and de Galhau, euro actually was under broad-based selling in European morning and later weakened 1.0653 near New York close.

Looks like consolidation with downside bias is in store ahead of European open and pay attention to release of key Germany's ZEW eco. sentiment index.
Offers are tipped at 1.0675/80 n more at 1.0695/000 with stops above 1.0715/20.
Some bids are noted at 1.0640-30 with stops below there.

Germany will release CPI, ZEW eco sentiment followed later by EU industrial production.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 15: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views - USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
15 Mar 2017 02:41GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Although Dollar is currently trading roughly at the same level where its was at 24 hours ago, price swung wildly in hectic Tuesday's session.
Price initially climbed from 114.76 to 115.20 in Europe before tumbling on active yen-buying to session lows of 114.52 at New York midday before rebounding on short covering as Dollar gained broadly vs G4 currencies in New York afternoon.

Yesterday's strong retreat from 115.20 suggests sideways swings would continue as market has to digest a slew of key U.S. eco. data and then Fed rate decision (a rise is almost a done deal) and more importantly, the published Fed's dot plot (rate hike forecasts) and Fed Chair Yellen's press conference.
Offers are tipped at 114.90/00 and more above with stops above 115.20.
Bids re noted at 114.55-50 with stops below 114.40.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Japan industrial output, capacity utilisation.
France CPI, HICP, Swiss PPI, Italy retail sales, CPI, HICP, UK claimant count, unemployment rate, EU employment change.
U.S. CPI, core CPI, retail sales, business inventories and FOMC rate decision.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 16: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Mar 2017 03:29GMT

USD/JPY - .... Dlr languishes near a 2-week low of 113.16 despite yesterday's anticipated Fed's rate rise, the second time in 3 months. The greenback tumbled broadly due to less hawkish Fed rate increase forecasts, cutting market's expectation of 3 more hikes to 2 in the remaining of 2017.

Well, this is more of a case of 'buy the rumour and sell on fact' as traders have been loading up long USD positions in recent days. However, the major factor that knocked dlr/yen lower was the sharp fall in U.S. yields where the key benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell fm Tue's near 3-month peak of 2.629% to 2.495%, rate dipped marginally to 2.486%, hence, dlr's weakness in Tokyo trading.

Although USD demand by Japanese importers are providing sup on dips for the greenback, sellers are likely to emerge after BoJ Kuroda's press conference (06:30GMT).
Offers are tipped at 113.55/65 and more above with stops above 114.00.
Some bids are noted at 113.15-00 area with stops below there, suggesting sell Dolllar on recovery is recommended for intra-day trade.

Later in the day, U.S. will release weekly jobless claims, housing starts and Philly Fed mfg index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 17: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Mar 2017 02:13GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr is currently roughly where it was trading 24 hours after a seesawed Thursday session.
Despite ratcheting lower from yesterday's 113.55 (AUS) high to a 2-week low of 112.91 on broad-based yen buying in early European trading, price rallied back to 113.53 on short covering b4 falling back to 112.98 at New York midday.
However, buying interest emerged and lifted price back to 113.43 and dlr later inched higher and climbed back to 113.49/50 in Asia today.

Looks like dlr would gain more respite in Asian trading, just like yesterday but beware of another round of yen buying when European traders arrive, so selling on intra-day recovery is favoured but downside today looks very ltd due to recovery in the U.S. yields (benchmark 10-year treasury yield has climbed back to 2.544% today from yesterday's 2.486% low).
Offers are tipped at 113.50/60 with some stops above there, more stops are touted above 114.00.
Bids are noted at 113.25/20 and more at 113.00 with stops reported below 112.90.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand business PMI, Italy trade balance, EU trade balance, U.S. industrial production, capacity utilisation and consumer confidence.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 20: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Mar 2017 03:02GMT

USD/JPY - 112.54.. Dlr languished near a fresh 2-week low of 112.48 in holiday-thinned trading in Asian morning as Japan's financial markets for closed for Vernal Equinox Day holiday.

The pair met renewed selling in New Zealand at 112.76 as lack of key developments at the end of G20 meeting on Saturday (G20 communique dropped pledge to avoid trade protectionism and to refrain from ccy intervention) prompted short-term specs to renew their broad-based USD selling, price fell below 112.57 after tripping some stops below there.

Although intra-day weakness suggests downside bias remains ahead of Euroepan open, so buying interest is touted at 112.35-20 area with stops below 112.00.
Offers are tipped at 112.75/85 with stops above 113.00.

The only U.S. eco. data due out is Chicago Fed National Activity index at 12:30GMT.
Last but not least, at 17:10GMT, Chicago Fed President Evans (voter) will be the first Fed official out of 9 policy makers who are scheduled to make public speeches this week.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Mar 2017 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Although euro fell initially ahead of Asian open to 1.0720 after tripping light stops below o/n NY low of 1.0735, short covering quickly lifted the single currency and price quickly rallied on broad-based usd's weakness (except vs yen), the pair later climbed on intra-day high of 1.0770 before stabilising.

Euro's rebound from 1.0720 strongly suggests correction from last week's 1.0783 high has ended and trading the euro from long side is the way to go.
Bids are noted at 1.0750-40 and more below with stops below 1.0700.
Offers are tipped at 1.0770/80 with stops above there, more stops are touted above 1.0800.

Data to be released later:
Swiss trade balance, UK CPI, core CPI, RPI, PPI input, PPI output, PPI core output, PSNB, PSNCR, CBI trends,
Canada retail sales, U.S. current account and redbook retail sales.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Mar 2017 02:30GMT

USD/JPY - 111.54.. Dlr remains on the back foot in choppy Tokyo trading after yesterday's cross-inspired selloff to 111.55 in New York, then to a fresh 3-1/2 month trough of 111.44 on stop hunting in Australia before bouncing briefly to 111.76/77 shortly after Tokyo open as bargain hunting by Japanese importers triggered minor short covering in the greenback.
However, price briefly dipped to 111.46/47 on news of possible firing of several missiles by North Korea.

Yesterday's break of February's 111.60 bodes ill for the buck as falling U.S. yields (benchmark 10-year yield fell from last week's 2.629% to 2.416% yesterday, then 2.4103% today) together with broad-based weakness in Asian stocks should pressure price due to expected yen buying on risk aversion.
So selling the pair on recovery is the way to go. Offers are tipped at 111.80/90 with some stops above 113.00.
Some bids are noted at 111.55-45 and more below with stops touted below 111.00.

U.S. wlll release monthly home price and exisiting home sales later in the day and no more Fed speak for rest of the day after Fed's Mester and Rosengren expressed their view a little while ago.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 23: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Mar 2017 03:20GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Yesterday's range was 1.0776-1.0825, so euro has more or less erased Wednesday's gain to a fresh 5-week high of 1.0825 made in New York morning.
However, failure to take out February's peak at 1.0829 led to broad-based long liquidation in the EURO esp vs USD, YEN and GBP.

Although intra-day weakness in Asia suggests range trading is in store, as long as 1.0780-70 sup area holds.
Euro's recent upmove is set to continue later in the day especially if Trump health care gets voted down by the U.S. Congress later today.
Bids are noted at 1.0780-70 with stops reported below there.
Offers are tipped at 1.0810/20 with stops above 1.0830/35.

Pay attention to release of a slew of euro area eco. data starting with Germany's Gfk consumer confidence, France's business climate, EU eco. bulletin, ECB targeted LTRO n much later at 15:00GMT, EU consumer confidence. ECB board member Nouey will speak at 08:00GMT followed by ECB's Lautenschlager at 15:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 24: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Mar 2017 01:46GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr pares yesterday's losses n climbs in early Asian trading as rebound from Thursday's fresh 4-month low at 110.63 suggests a temp. bottom is possibly in place and traders reported buying by Japanese names (importers) on bargain hunting, intra-day usd firmness in the other G3 signals consolidation with near term upside bias is in store.

Bids have been raised to 110.90-80 with some stops below 110.60.
Offers are tipped at 111.45/55 with stops above there.

Although market's main focus is the vote outcome on Trump health care in New York afternoon, pay attention to release of a slew of U.S. data starting with key durable goods n Markit mfg and then services PMIs. Fed's Evans, Yellen, Bullard and Dudley are scheduled to speak later today.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Mar 2017 01:22GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr languishes near intra-day fresh 4-month trough of 110.26 in early Tokyo trading.
Although the pair opened flat around 111.22 in New Z, a bout of broad-based USD selling sent price lower, tripping some stops below 110.50, however, as intra-day decline looks a wee bit over-extended, reckon 'psychological' 110.00 level would hold on 1st testing.

Intra-day selloff in the Nikkei (currently down 1.66% at 18943) plus continued decline in U.S. yields (benchmark 10-year yield is near 1-month low of 2.3670%) are likely to weigh on the greenback.
Offers have been lowered to 110.60/70 and more above with stops above 111.00.
Bids are touted at 110.30-20 and more below with stops below 110.00.

U.S. calendar is very light with Dallas mfg. activity index being the only data due out at 15:30GMT. Chicago Fed E

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 28: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 Mar 2017 02:00GMT

USD/JPY - 110.60.. The greenback finally gained respite in Asia after hitting a fresh 4-month trough of 110.11 at New York open yesterday, however, broad-based rebound in the USD after U.S. financial markets closed little changed triggered short covering, the pair rebounded to 110.68 and then climbing to intra-day high of 110.83 shortly after Tokyo open as the Nikkie gained over 1%.

Looks like Monday's 110.11 low would hold from here and yield consolidation with mild upside bias, so for intra-day trade, buying dlr on dips is favoured after early currency comments by FinMin Ishihara (the first by a Japanese official in several weeks).
Bids are noted at 110.50-40 n more below with stops reported below 110.00.
Offers are tipped at 110.80/90 with some stops above 111.00.

A slew of U.S. eco. data will be released later in the day starting with good's trade balance, wholesale inventories, Redbook retail sales, CaseShiller home price, consumer confidence and Richmond Fed manufacturing index.

Today is another Fed speak day starting with Kansas City Fed President George, Fed's chair Yellen and Dallas Fed President Kaplan.