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Weekly Economic Calendar


July 1-5, 2024



Economic Focus This Week

1. Monday: Potential market volatility due to Chinese data & French elections.
2. Wednesday: Lagarde & Powell speak, potentially impacting markets.
3. Friday: US jobs report (Non-Farm Payrolls) is the week's highlight.
4. Holiday Note: US markets closed on July 4th (Thursday).

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


July 2, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD:

1. Outlook: Uncertain. The pound mirrored the euro's movements, possibly due to technical factors. The pound has some support and might attempt another rise, but fundamentals are unclear.
2. Support Levels: 1.2623, 1.2602, 1.2566
3. Resistance Levels: 1.2664, 1.2693, 1.2735, 1.2806

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


July 4, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD:

1. Trend: Bearish in the short term
2. Support levels: 1.2663, 1.2653, 1.2623, 1.2602, 1.2566
3. Resistance levels: 1.2692, 1.2702, 1.2735, 1.2806
4. Important factors: UK Services PMI, composite PMI data, Parliamentary elections
5. Forecast: GBP/USD may continue to rise on positive PMI data. Alternative scenario suggests renewed investor interest in risk weakening the dollar if US labor data disappoints, potentially pushing GBP/USD to 1.2940.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


July 5, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD:

1. Bullish trend
2. Supported by weak dollar and potential BoE rate cut in August
3. Support levels: 1.2701, 1.2681
4. Resistance levels: 1.2752, 1.2780
5. Potential for further upside if breaks above 1.2788-1.2801

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Weekly Economic Calendar


July 8-12, 2024



Economic Focus This Week

1. Monday: Quiet data releases, but French election results may stir the Euro.
2. Tuesday: Focus on US markets with Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen's testimonies.
3. Wednesday: Key data releases in Asia, followed by RBNZ rate decision and Powell's House testimony.
4. Thursday: US inflation data (CPI) is the main event, along with weekly unemployment claims.
5. Friday: US producer price index (PPI) data released. Week closes with consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


July 9, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD:

1. Technical Analysis: Bullish trend on a 7-day winning streak, facing resistance at 1.2850.
2. Support Levels: 1.2750, 1.2680, 1.2600
3. Resistance Levels: 1.2850 (multi-month resistance)
4. Trading Recommendations: Intraday selling if price breaks 1.2806 with a target of 1.2776. Look for buying on a confirmation around 1.2792.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


July 11, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD:

1. Trend: Bullish (from technical analysis), but caution is advised due to mixed fundamentals.
2. Support Levels: 1.2789, 1.2761, 1.2741, 1.2701, 1.2681, 1.2663, 1.2653, 1.2623
3. Resistance Levels: 1.2815, 1.2845
4. Trading Strategy: Look to buy on a pullback to 1.2789 or 1.2764, with targets at 1.2822 or 1.2858. Sell if price breaks below 1.2789, with a target of 1.2764.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


July 12, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD:

1. Trend: Bullish.
2. Key Levels: Support: 1.0807, Resistance: 1.0862, 1.0899 (target)
3. Today's Focus: US data, particularly Consumer Price Index (CPI). Lower inflation could strengthen the Euro.
4. Trading Strategy: Consider buying around 1.0813 if there's a dip after US data release, targeting a rebound. Alternatively, if data disappoints and Euro strengthens decisively, wait for a pullback towards 1.0871 before selling.

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Weekly Economic Calendar


July 15-19, 2024



Economic Focus This Week

1. Wednesday: New Zealand and UK inflation data (CPI & PPI), US economic data (Building Permits & Industrial Production), FOMC member speaks.
2. Thursday: Australian employment data, European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision and press conference, UK employment data, US economic data (Philly Fed Manufacturing Index), weekly jobless claims.
3. Friday: UK and Canadian Retail Sales data, FOMC members speak.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


July 16, 2024



Major Currencies:
Commodities:

1. Gold (XAU/USD): Gold analysts are bullish, with a potential breakout above $2415 if the uptrend continues. A confirmation signal is needed before buying.
2. Oil (Brent): Despite Chinese demand concerns, oil prices remain stable. A potential triple bottom pattern suggests bullish sentiment. Watch for support and resistance levels (85.25, 86.21) for trading opportunities.
3. Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Bitcoin is surging due to ETF inflows and miner accumulation. The outlook is positive, but be cautious of potential volatility.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


July 18, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD:

1. The British pound is at a 1-year high, buoyed by inflation remaining at the BoE's target of 2%.
2. The BoE may still lack confidence to cut rates at the next meeting on August 1st due to concerns about service sector inflation.
3. Resistance is at 1.3008, with support at 1.2987.

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Weekly Economic Calendar


July 22-26, 2024



Economic Focus This Week
Other Potential Market Movers:

1. Monday: China's loan prime rates are expected to remain unchanged, but any surprise adjustments could cause market volatility.
2. Wednesday: Existing home sales and manufacturing data from the US could impact markets.
3. Thursday: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey could provide insights into consumer spending.
4. Friday: The G20 meeting in Rio de Janeiro could generate updates that affect markets.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


July 23, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD:

1. Trend: Downtrend
2. Support: 1.2899, 1.2878
3. Resistance: 1.2976, 1.3012
4. Forecast: GBP/USD is likely to remain under pressure due to the possibility of a rate cut by the Bank of England. A confirmed breakout below 1.2903 could lead to a decline towards 1.2849, while a break above 1.2974 is unlikely.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


July 25, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD:

1. Trend: Bearish (short-term)
2. Key Levels: Support: 1.2878, 1.2824; Resistance: 1.2898, 1.2976
3. Forecast: The pound could experience a minor bounce if it manages to climb above 1.2898. However, the outlook remains bearish due to weak UK PMIs.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


July 26, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD:

1. Overall Trend: Bearish
2. Key Levels:
   • Support: 1.2850, 1.2824, 1.2801
   • Resistance: 1.2909, 1.2941, 1.2976
3. Trading Strategy:
   • Short-term: Consider selling on rallies towards resistance, with a target of 1.2824.
   • Long-term: Wait for a break and confirmation above resistance at 1.2941 before entering long positions.

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Weekly Economic Calendar


July 29 - August 2, 2024



Economic Focus This Week
Economic Data:

1. Wednesday: Major day with CPI and retail sales data from Australia, Bank of Japan rate decision, Eurozone core CPI, US ADP Non-Farm, Employment Cost Index, Pending Home Sales, Canadian GDP, and FOMC meeting.
2. Thursday: UK Bank of England rate decision, US unemployment claims and ISM Manufacturing PMI.
3. Friday: Swiss CPI data, US Non-Farm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, and unemployment rate.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


July 30, 2024



Major Currencies:
EUR/USD:

• Current Trend: Bearish
• Technical Levels:
  • Support: 1.2824, 1.2801, 1.2761
  • Resistance: 1.2909, 1.2941, 1.2976
• MACD Indicator: Below zero, limiting further downward potential.
• Recommendations:
  • Buy: If price reaches 1.2849; or two consecutive tests at 1.2829.
  • Sell: If price reaches 1.2829; or two consecutive tests at 1.2849.
• Market Sentiment: Bearish, with uncertainty around the Bank of England’s upcoming rate decision.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


August 1, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD:
Technical Perspective:

• Support Levels: 1.2800, 1.2750, 1.2680
• Resistance Levels: 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3040

Recent Activity:

• GBP/USD is consolidating around the 1.2850 level, with attempts by both bulls and bears to break this range being countered.
• Immediate support is at 1.2800, with potential to fall towards 1.2500 if broken.
• Resistance is faced at 1.2950 and then at the psychological level of 1.3000.

Trading Strategies:

• Buy Signals:
  • Buy at 1.2845 aiming for 1.2880. Buy at 1.2828 after two consecutive tests, targeting 1.2845 and 1.2880.
• Sell Signals:
  • Sell at 1.2828 aiming for 1.2802. Sell at 1.2845 after two consecutive tests, targeting 1.2828 and 1.2802.

Outlook:

• Market participants are cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting and the upcoming Bank of England report. A dovish Fed could boost GBP/USD, while a hawkish stance might lead to a decline.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


August 1, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD
Current Analysis:

• The GBP/USD has been significantly affected by the recent rate cut by the Bank of England, leading to a sharp drop in the pound.
• The rate cut decision, unexpected by many, and weaker economic outlook for the UK contribute to bearish sentiment.

Technical Levels:

• Support: 1.2761, 1.2741, 1.2701
• Resistance: 1.2868, 1.2909, 1.2976

Short-Term Forecast:

• Bearish Outlook: The pair is showing a bearish trend. A break below 1.2759 could extend the decline towards 1.2718.
• Alternative Scenario: A recovery above 1.2868 could signal a potential bullish reversal, targeting 1.2909 and 1.2976.

Trading Tip: Favor selling near resistance levels or upon a break below key support. Buying opportunities might arise if the price shows a strong reversal from support levels.






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Weekly Economic Calendar


August 5-9, 2024



Economic Focus This Week
Key Events:

• Wednesday, August 7, 2024
  • New Zealand employment data.
  • Canadian Ivey PMI numbers and US 10-year bond auction.
  
  
• Thursday, August 8, 2024
  • Speech by RBA Governor Michele Bullock and New Zealand Quarterly Inflation expectations.
  • Weekly US unemployment claims.
  
  
• Friday, August 9, 2024
  • Chinese CPI and PPI data.
  
  
  
  
  
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