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Market Analysis and Forecasts


September 10, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD
Current Trend: Bearish

• Support Levels: 1.3117, 1.3055, 1.2973, 1.2848
• Resistance Levels: 1.3150, 1.3202, 1.3306

The GBP/USD pair is under pressure amid concerns over the UK labor market data and potential for a rate cut by the Bank of England. The probability of a cut remains low due to persistent wage growth and inflation in services, but the market remains cautious. U.S. data will play a critical role in the upcoming sessions.

• Forecast: GBP/USD is expected to remain bearish unless it breaks above the resistance at 1.3150. A breach below 1.3117 will open the door for further declines toward 1.3055 and possibly 1.2973.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


September 10, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD
Key Points:

• UK GDP: Weak UK GDP data weighed on the pound.
• U.S. inflation: A decline in U.S. inflation could support the pound.
• Trading strategy: Similar to EUR/USD, focus on breakouts and breakdowns.
• Support levels: 1.3055, 1.3031, 1.2973, 1.2932, 1.2848, 1.2800
• Resistance levels: 1.3120, 1.3150, 1.3202, 1.3306

Forecast: The GBP/USD is also likely to be influenced by U.S. inflation data. However, the pound may also be impacted by UK economic data. Traders should monitor both U.S. and UK economic indicators for potential trading opportunities.





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Market Analysis and Forecasts


September 13, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair has been trending down due to weak UK economic data. The zero growth in July’s GDP and declining wage growth are fueling expectations of a potential rate cut by the Bank of England. If US inflation data shows continued strength, it may drive the dollar higher, putting more downward pressure on GBP/USD.

• Support Levels: 1.3012, 1.2973, 1.2932
• Resistance Levels: 1.3049, 1.3075, 1.3120
• Forecast: The GBP could decline further if UK data continues to disappoint, potentially testing support at 1.3012. However, weak US inflation data could provide relief and push the pair toward resistance at 1.3075 and possibly 1.3120.

Outlook: Bearish, with a downside risk as UK economic weakness outweighs potential dollar softness.






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Weekly Economic Calendar


September 16-20, 2024



Economic Focus This Week
Key Events:

• Wednesday (18 September 2024):
  • The UK released its CPI numbers a day before the Bank of England's rate decision.
  • U.S. Building Permits and Crude Oil inventory data were released.
  • The highly anticipated Fed rate decision was the main event of the day.
• Thursday (19 September 2024):
  • New Zealan's quarterly GDP and Australian employment numbers were released during the Asian session.
  • The Bank of England announced its rate decision during the London session.
  • U.S. weekly unemployment claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Existing Home Sales data were released.
• Friday (20 September 2024):
  • The Bank of Japan and People's Bank of China made key rate decisions in the Asian session.
  • UK Retail Sales data was released in Europe.
  • In North America, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem delivered a speech, followed by Canadian Retail Sales data.
  • ECB President Christine Lagarde and FOMC's Patrick Harker provided updates toward the end of the day.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


September 17, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD
Current Situation: The GBP/USD pair is experiencing upward pressure and is currently trading at around 1.3121. The focus is on UK inflation data and the Bank of England's upcoming policy meeting.
Technical Analysis:

• Resistance Levels: 1.3150, 1.3202, 1.3231, 1.3306
• Support Levels: 1.3115, 1.3086, 1.3072, 1.3033

Forecast: The pair is currently trading near resistance levels at 1.3202 and 1.3231. A decisive break above these levels may lead to further gains, potentially reaching 1.3306. However, weakness could emerge if the GBP/USD fails to sustain above these resistances or if the upcoming UK inflation data disappoints. Support at 1.3115 and 1.3086 will be crucial for maintaining the current bullish trend.





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Market Analysis and Forecasts


September 18, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD

• Current Trend: GBP/USD is bullish, with the pound benefiting from a weak U.S. dollar and anticipation around the Federal Reserve meeting. However, traders remain cautious due to upcoming U.K. inflation data.
• Key Data: The BoE’s stance on rates and U.K. inflation will play a significant role in determining the future trajectory.
• Support Levels:
  • 1.3182
  • 1.3115
  • 1.3033
• Resistance Levels:
  • 1.3230 (near-term)
  • 1.3306 (medium-term)
• Forecast: The pair could test the resistance level at 1.3230 if U.S. economic data continues to disappoint. However, if the U.K. inflation report shows weaker numbers, a dip toward the 1.3115 support level is expected.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


September 19, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD
The British pound is showing strength, trading around 1.3224 following an unexpected rise in UK core inflation to 3.6%, above expectations. This may complicate the Bank of England’s future rate-cutting plans. With the Fed meeting looming, the GBP/USD pair is likely to react to any surprises from the FOMC, particularly if the Fed opts for a more aggressive 50 bps rate cut.
Support Levels:

• 1.3127
• 1.3094

Resistance Levels:

• 1.3178
• 1.3260

Forecast:
A 50 bps cut by the Fed could push GBP/USD higher, targeting 1.3300. However, if the Fed opts for a 25 bps cut or maintains a hawkish outlook, the pair could retreat to 1.3100. The pound will also remain sensitive to any changes in the Bank of England’s outlook, especially on inflation.




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Market Analysis and Forecasts


September 20, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair is riding on both dollar weakness and strong expectations around the Bank of England’s monetary policy. Even though the BoE is not expected to cut rates immediately, the pound is benefitting from inflation risks and a dovish Fed.

• Support Levels: 1.3188, 1.3145, 1.3115
• Resistance Levels: 1.3273, 1.3306
• Outlook: A bullish trend with potential pullbacks. Traders are likely cautious ahead of any BoE signaling for future rate cuts, which may cause short-term volatility.
• Forecast: Likely to challenge 1.3306 and potentially rise to 1.3371. However, failure to hold 1.3145 may indicate the onset of a correction.

Key Strategy: Look for pullbacks to 1.3188 for buying opportunities. Selling near resistance at 1.3306 is feasible is there are signs of overbought conditions.




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Weekly Economic Calendar


September 23-27, 2024



Economic Focus This Week
Key Events:

• Thursday:
  • Swiss National Bank (SNB) policy rate decision (possible cut by 25 or 50 bps)
  • Final estimate for US Q2 GDP
  • US weekly jobless filings
  • US durable goods orders
• Friday:
  • US PCE Price Index data (forecast: YoY inflation to ease to 2.3% from 2.5%; core inflation to increase to 2.7% from 2.6%)

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


September 24, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD
Analysis:

• The pound is facing a tough environment as the UK economy struggles with persistent inflation and economic stagnation. Expectations of continued rate hikes from the Bank of England (BoE) may keep GBP supported in the short term, but the BoE's cautious tone on economic growth limits upside potential.

Forecast:

• Short-term outlook: The GBP/USD is likely to face downside risk, especially if inflationary pressures ease and the BoE shifts towards a more dovish stance.
• Medium-term outlook: A softer UK growth outlook may drive the pair lower, with downside pressure increasing if the U.S. dollar remains robust on the back of strong data.

Support levels: 1.2160, 1.2070
Resistance levels: 1.2270, 1.2350






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Market Analysis and Forecasts


September 25, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD

• Current Market Sentiment: Bullish momentum despite weaker PMI data. The market is focusing on potential BoE actions and U.S. Fed outlook.
• Recent Performance: GBP/USD has shown strength, currently trading at 1.3393. The pound has gained over 2.6% since mid-September, supported by investor optimism despite weaker UK economic data.
• Support Levels:
  • 1.3318, 1.3278 (near-term support)
  • 1.3241, 1.3188 (if downside correction continues)
• Resistance Levels:
  • 1.3390 (current resistance level)
  • 1.3435, 1.3455 (key levels for further upside)
• Forecast: The British pound could continue to rally if U.S. data disappoints or if dovish comments from the Fed dominate market sentiment. Resistance at 1.3435 remains the key target for buyers. However, if U.S. data surprises to the upside, GBP/USD could retreat toward support at 1.3318.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


September 26, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD

• Support Levels: 1.3367, 1.3300, 1.3274, 1.3241, 1.3188
• Resistance Levels: 1.3455

The GBP/USD trend is also bullish due to recent strong UK data, although U.S. economic releases will likely dictate short-term movement. The market is watching closely for any further signs of dollar weakness.

• Forecast: The pair is expected to continue toward 1.3455 resistance, driven by weak U.S. data. A break below 1.3367 could lead to a correction toward 1.3300.
• Trade Recommendation: Buy around 1.3367 with a target of 1.3415, but prepare to sell if 1.3367 is breached, targeting 1.3300.

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[AutoRebateForeX]

Weekly Economic Calendar


September 30 - October 4, 2024



Economic Focus This Week
Key Events:

• Wednesday:
  • Quiet early trading sessions.
  • U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment figures and Crude Oil inventory data released in the New York session.
• Thursday:
  • Calm Asian session expected.
  • Swiss CPI data due at the European open.
  • U.S. jobs data continues with Unemployment Claims and ISM Services PMI.
• Friday:
  • U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls expected, dominating market focus.
  • UK Construction data due in London session.
  • Canadian Ivey PMI follows, but U.S. jobs data will likely steer market sentiment.

*For full Economic Calendar and AutoRebateForeX rebates, check below:
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[AutoRebateForeX]

Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 1, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD

• Trend: Bullish
• Key Events: UK Q2 GDP at 0.5%, slightly down from the previous quarter. House prices continue to rise, and expectations of BoE rate cuts are increasing.
• Support Levels: 1.3371, 1.3311, 1.3300, 1.3274, 1.3241
• Resistance Levels: 1.3427, 1.3450
• Outlook: GBP/USD is likely to test resistance at 1.3427. A break above could lead to a test of 1.3450, while a drop below 1.3311 may signal a move toward 1.3240. BoE rate cut expectations may limit upside.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 2, 2024



Major Currencies:
EUR/USD

1. Key Factors:
   1. Eurozone CPI slowed to 1.8% (y/y) in September, below the ECB’s 2% target.
   2. The euro continues to face selling pressure due to lower-than-expected inflation, reducing the likelihood of an ECB rate cut in the immediate term.
   3. The Federal Reserve has adopted a cautious tone, slowing the pace of expected rate cuts.
   
   
   
2. Support Levels: 1.1058, 1.1001
3. Resistance Levels: 1.1153, 1.1191
4. Forecast: The pair remains under pressure, with potential for further downside unless U.S. data disappoints. The support at 1.1058 could be tested, and if broken, 1.1001 is the next level to watch. Any surprises in upcoming U.S. data could lead to a temporary rebound to the 1.1153 resistance, though a sustained rally seems unlikely without stronger Eurozone fundamentals.

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[AutoRebateForeX]

Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 3, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair has shifted into a downtrend, mainly driven by a strong U.S. Dollar and global risk aversion. Despite positive UK economic data, the pound is struggling due to geopolitical risks and concerns about the global economy.

• Technical Setup:
  • Support Levels: 1.3241, 1.3200, 1.3153
  • Resistance Levels: 1.3327, 1.3377, 1.3389
  • Trend: Bearish
• Forecast:
  • As risk appetite diminishes, the pound may continue its slide. A break below 1.3241 could lead to a move toward 1.3200. However, if buyers step in at the support zone and the USD shows signs of weakness, the pair might attempt to test resistance near 1.3327. Geopolitical developments and upcoming U.S. labor data could drive volatility in the short term.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 4, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD

• Current Situation: The GBP/USD is also in a bearish trend, with recent U.K. data being weak and geopolitical risks adding to the pound’s challenges. The pair has fallen to the support levels after testing resistance near 1.3293.
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 1.3241, 1.3200, 1.3153
  • Resistance: 1.3293, 1.3377, 1.3389
• Forecast:
  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound from support at 1.3241 could lead to a recovery, especially if weak U.S. data weakens the dollar. If the pound breaks above the 1.3293 resistance, the next targets would be 1.3327 and 1.3389. A dovish tone from the U.S. FOMC could fuel this recovery.
  • Bearish Scenario: A break below 1.3153 could trigger further selling pressure, with the next target around 1.3100. Continued weak U.K. data and strong U.S. data could reinforce this downward movement.
  General Outlook: GBP/USD remains vulnerable to the downside, with geopolitical and economic risks overshadowing potential gains. Key support levels are crucial, but any further deterioration could lead to a sharper sell-off.

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[AutoRebateForeX]

Weekly Economic Calendar


October 7-11, 2024



Economic Focus This Week
Key Events:
Thursday, October 10, 2024:

• Eurozone - ECB Meeting Minutes: European Central Bank's latest minutes will offer insights into inflation and monetary policy trends, with implications for the euro.
• US - CPI Inflation Data (12:30 PM GMT): The most anticipated release of the week. Analysts expect headline inflation to cool to 2.3% year-over-year (from 2.5%), with core inflation holding steady at 3.2%. Any upside surprise could further boost the US dollar.
• US - Weekly Unemployment Claims: Released alongside CPI data, but inflation figures are likely to dominate market sentiment.

Friday, October 11, 2024:

• UK - GDP Data (6:00 AM GMT): UK Gross Domestic Product figures will be scrutinized for signs of economic resilience amid inflationary pressures.
• US - PPI Data (12:30 PM GMT): Core Producer Price Index readings may influence inflation expectations and market movements, even if less impactful than CPI.
• US - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (2:00 PM GMT): This report will wrap up the week, providing a snapshot of consumer confidence and inflation expectations heading into the final quarter of the year.

*For full Economic Calendar and AutoRebateForeX rebates, check below:
https://autorebateforex.com/market-news/key-economic-events-this-week-starting-october-7-2024/

 

[AutoRebateForeX]

Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 8, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD
The British pound is also struggling against the US dollar, primarily due to the Bank of England’s dovish outlook. With inflation expected to slow and ongoing concerns over the UK economy, further rate hikes seem unlikely. This environment favors more downside for GBP/USD.

• Support Levels: 1.2032, 1.1954
• Resistance Levels: 1.2230, 1.2280

Forecast: The GBP/USD pair will likely test the support at 1.2032 soon. A decisive break below this level could lead to a further decline toward 1.1954. Resistance at 1.2230 should cap any near-term recovery, but a break above it would give the bulls a brief chance to target 1.2280. However, bearish sentiment dominates unless there’s a significant shift in BOE policy.





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[AutoRebateForeX]

Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 9, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD

• Trend: Bearish
• Support Levels: 1.3047, 1.3035
• Resistance Levels: 1.3175, 1.3290, 1.3377

GBP/USD has dropped to its lowest levels in almost a month, driven by concerns about a potential aggressive rate cut by the Bank of England in November. Economic uncertainties in the UK combined with global risk sentiment are weighing heavily on the pound. A near-term correction could occur if there is profit-taking, but the general outlook remains weak.
Technical Outlook:

• Bearish Momentum: GBP/USD is in a descending wedge pattern, suggesting the likelihood of further declines. The MACD divergence indicates a possible correction, but sellers will likely target 1.3047.
• Strategy: Selling near 1.3086 is recommended, with stops above 1.3106. A break below 1.3047 could see a move towards 1.3035 or lower, with resistance at 1.3175 limiting any potential rebound.

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