AutoRebateForex Official Thread - Automated 80% Forex Rebates

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


August 6, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD

• Current Situation: GBP/USD is trading at 1.2806, up 0.57% for the day. The pound's movement is influenced by mixed data from the UK services sector and concerns over US economic performance.
• Technical Indicators:
  • Support Levels: 1.2717, 1.2694, 1.2662
  • Resistance Levels: 1.2840, 1.2879, 1.2909, 1.2950
• Outlook: The Bank of England's stance on maintaining current interest rates to curb inflation supports the pound. However, the trend remains bearish, with potential buy points at support levels. Strong US data could further pressure the pound, while weak US data might provide upward momentum.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


August 8, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD
Analysis:

• Bearish Trends: The UK is expected to experience policy easing due to restrictive measures impacting GDP and the labor market. The British pound continues to weaken against the dollar.
• Resistance Levels: 1.2731, 1.2803, 1.2879, 1.2909, 1.2950
• Support Levels: 1.2662

Forecast:

• Short-Term Outlook: The GBP/USD could see further declines if it breaks the support level at 1.2662. Short-term recoveries might occur, but any resistance breakouts above 1.2803 could signal a potential reversal in trend.
• Alternative Scenario: If the GBP/USD consolidates above 1.2803, a reversal to an uptrend may be possible.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


August 9, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD

• Current Trend: Bearish
• Support Levels: 1.2662
• Resistance Levels: 1.2705, 1.2731, 1.2803, 1.2879, 1.2909, 1.2950
• Market Sentiment: The GBP/USD pair is under pressure, trading near a one-month low due to expectations of Bank of England rate cuts. This bearish sentiment is further reinforced by concerns over a possible US recession and the corresponding impact on the UK economy. The pound is testing key support at 1.2662, and any further declines in UK economic data could push the pair lower.
• Forecast: Expect the GBP/USD to remain bearish, testing support at 1.2662. A break below this level could see the pair heading towards the next support zone. However, a consolidation above 1.2705 could suggest a potential short-term recovery.

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Weekly Economic Calendar


August 12-16, 2024



Economic Focus This Week
Key Events:
Wednesday, August 14:

• Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate decision, statement, and press conference in the Asian session.
• UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data at the European open.
• US CPI inflation data early in the New York session.

Thursday, August 15:

• RBNZ Governor interviews early in the Asian session.
• Australian employment data and Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales numbers in the Asian session.
• UK GDP data after the London open.
• US Retail Sales, weekly unemployment claims, and updates from Philly Fed and Empire State Manufacturing Index in the New York session.
• Thinner market conditions due to Assumption Day holiday in some major centers.

Friday, August 16:

• Speeches by RBA Governor Michele Bullock and RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr in the Asian session.
• UK Retail Sales data at the European open.
• US data including Building Permits and Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment and Inflation Expectations to close the week.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


August 14, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD

• Current Market Sentiment: Bullish with caution
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 1.2750, 1.2690, 1.2600
  • Resistance: 1.2850, 1.2950, 1.3000
• Analysis:
  • GBP/USD has edged higher on positive labor market data and hawkish BoE comments. The pair is testing key resistance at 1.2781, with a potential move towards 1.2850 and 1.2950 if bullish momentum continues.
  • Scenario 1: A breakout above 1.2781 could push the pair to 1.2839 and then 1.2950.
  • Scenario 2: A decline below 1.2726 could lead to a retest of the 1.2665 support, signaling a potential shift in trend.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


August 15, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD

• Current Market Sentiment: The GBP/USD pair is currently in a bullish trend, bolstered by stronger-than-expected UK labor market data. However, the recent softer-than-expected UK inflation data has raised concerns about the Bank of England’s next move, which could cap further gains.
• Support Levels: 1.2844, 1.2800, 1.2726
• Resistance Levels: 1.2879, 1.2912, 1.2950
• Forecast: GBP/USD may continue to edge higher towards 1.2879 and 1.2912 if the current bullish momentum persists. However, if the pair fails to break above 1.2879, a pullback towards the 1.2844 support level is likely, with a potential further decline if U.S. inflation data strengthens the USD.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


August 16, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD

• Current Trend: Bullish with caution
• Support Levels: 1.2818, 1.2800, 1.2726, 1.2714, 1.2665
• Resistance Levels: 1.2868, 1.2912, 1.2950
• Analysis: The GBP/USD has been trading in a range, reflecting uncertainty around U.K. economic prospects and U.S. economic data. While the U.K. economy has shown resilience with strong GDP figures, the pound's strength is tempered by inflation concerns and the possibility of further rate cuts by the Bank of England. The key resistance at 1.2868 is crucial; a failure to break this level could lead to a decline towards the support levels.
• Forecast: GBP/USD is expected to remain within the current range unless there is a significant catalyst from either the U.K. or U.S. economic data. A break above 1.2868 could lead to a push towards 1.2912, while a drop below 1.2818 could see the pair testing lower support levels.

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Weekly Economic Calendar


August 19-23, 2024



Economic Focus This Week
Key Events:
Thursday, August 22, 2024

• Thursday sees the release of Flash Manufacturing and Service PMI data from Australia, France, Germany, the UK, and the US. These numbers, although not as impactful as CPI data, are closely monitored as part of the broader inflation picture.
• In the U.S. session, the usual weekly unemployment claims numbers will be released.

Friday, August 23, 2024

• Early focus will be on New Zealand with the release of the latest Retail Sales numbers.
• Attention will then shift to the U.S. session and the start of the Jackson Hole Symposium, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey are scheduled to speak.
• Additionally, Canadian Retail Sales data will be released before the central bank updates.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


August 22, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD (British Pound to US Dollar)

• Current Status: GBP/USD is trading at 1.3047 after a recent rally.
• Support Levels: 1.3020, 1.2989, 1.2973, 1.2800
• Resistance Levels: 1.3067, 1.3098, 1.3146
• Market Sentiment: The pound has gained due to expectations of a Fed rate cut, while the UK PMI reports could provide additional direction.
• Technical Outlook: GBP/USD is facing resistance at 1.3067 and 1.3098, with support at 1.3020 and 1.2989. The MACD indicates potential for a correction to 1.2973.
• Forecast: The pound could see limited gains, with potential for a correction if resistance at 1.3098 holds. A dovish Fed could support further upside, but technical indicators suggest a possible pullback.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


August 23, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD (British Pound/US Dollar)

• Current Situation: The GBP/USD has been strong, supported by positive UK economic data and expectations of a Fed rate cut. The pound reached its highest level since July 2023, though the market remains cautious due to potential corrections.
• Technical Indicators:
  • Support Levels: 1.3055, 1.2973, 1.2932, 1.2848, 1.2800
  • Resistance Levels: 1.3140
• Forecast:
  • Bullish Scenario: If GBP/USD breaks above 1.3140, it could aim for higher targets, particularly if U.S. data disappoints or if there’s further positive news from the UK.
  • Bearish Scenario: A move below 1.3055 could trigger a decline towards 1.2973, especially if the dollar gains strength on the back of stronger U.S. economic data or hawkish Fed commentary.

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Weekly Economic Calendar


August 26-30, 2024



Economic Focus This Week
Key Events:
Wednesday, 28 August 2024:

• Little scheduled across all three trading sessions.
• Main focus on FOMC’s latest meeting minutes released at the end of the US day.

Thursday, 29 August 2024:

• Flash Manufacturing and Service PMI data releases across the day:
  • Australia, France, Germany, the UK, and the US.
• US session includes the usual weekly unemployment claims numbers.

Friday, 30 August 2024:

• Early focus on New Zealand with Retail Sales numbers due out.
• Long wait until the US session:
  • Start of the Jackson Hole Symposium.
  • Fed’s Jerome Powell and Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey scheduled to speak.
  • Canadian Retail Sales numbers released prior to central bank updates.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


August 27, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD (British Pound/US Dollar)

• Current Market Sentiment: GBP/USD is showing strength, recently surpassing $1.322, with market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England supporting the pound.
• Support and Resistance Levels:
  • Support: 1.3175, 1.3137
  • Resistance: 1.3243, 1.3306
• Forecast: The pound is likely to remain strong, with potential to test the resistance at 1.3306 if the current bullish sentiment persists. A break below 1.3137, however, would indicate a shift back towards a bearish trend.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


August 28, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD (British Pound/US Dollar)

• Current Situation: The British Pound has been one of the strongest performers, driven by robust UK economic data and expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will not cut rates soon. However, signs of a potential correction are emerging as the pair trades in overbought territory.
• Support Levels: 1.3175, 1.3137, 1.3075
• Resistance Levels: 1.3306, 1.3354, 1.3500
• Forecast: The GBP/USD pair is showing signs of a possible correction due to overbought conditions, as indicated by the RSI. A retracement could bring the pair down to support levels around 1.3175 or 1.3137. However, if the pair breaks above the resistance at 1.3306, the next targets could be 1.3354 and 1.3500.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


August 29, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD
Current Situation:

• GBP/USD is trading at 1.3261, having recently hit a two-year high.
• The pound's strength is supported by expectations of fewer rate cuts from the Bank of England compared to the Federal Reserve.

Technical Analysis:

• Support Levels: 1.3204, 1.3175, 1.3137
• Resistance Levels: 1.3306

Forecast:

• The bullish trend for GBP/USD continues, with potential for reaching resistance at 1.3306.
• The trend is upward unless the price breaks below the support level at 1.3175. A move below 1.3075 could indicate a resumption of the downtrend.
• Short-Term Trading: Buying opportunities may arise near support levels, particularly around 1.3204, with the resistance at 1.3306 being a key target.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


August 29, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD

• Current Trend: GBP/USD is trading near 1.3191, down 0.48% from the previous session. Despite the recent drop, the GBP has been relatively strong, supported by expectations of diverging monetary policies between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve.
• Support Levels: 1.3175, 1.3137, 1.3075
• Resistance Levels: 1.3256, 1.3306
• Outlook: The GBP/USD remains bullish in the medium term, with a potential rise towards the 1.3256 and 1.3306 resistance levels. However, if the pair breaks below the 1.3175 support level, it could see a deeper correction towards 1.3137. A break below 1.3075 would likely signal a reversal of the current uptrend.

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Weekly Economic Calendar


September 2-6, 2024



Economic Focus This Week
Key Events:
Wednesday, September 4, 2024

• Australia's Quarterly GDP data is in focus during the Sydney trading session.
• US JOLTS Job Openings data will be released, providing early insight into the US labor market.
• The Bank of Canada delivers its rate decision at 1:45 pm GMT, with markets expecting a 25 basis point rate cut.

Thursday, September 5, 2024

• Australia continues to be in the spotlight with a speech by Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock.
• The UK releases its Construction PMI data during the London session.
• Key US labor updates include the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Weekly Unemployment Claims, followed by the ISM Services PMI.

Friday, September 6, 2024

• The week culminates with the highly anticipated US Employment Situation Report at 12:30 pm GMT, featuring Non-Farm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, and the Unemployment Rate.
• This data is crucial in shaping the Fed’s rate decision outlook, with any surprises potentially triggering significant market movements.
• Fed members Waller and Williams are scheduled to speak later in the day, though the employment data is expected to dominate investor sentiment.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


September 3, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD

• Current Overview: The GBP/USD is relatively stable in thin trading due to the US Labor Day holiday. UK manufacturing PMI remains above the expansion threshold, suggesting some resilience in the economy, though the outlook depends on upcoming services PMI data and the Bank of England's stance on interest rates.
• Technical Levels:
  • Support: 1.3091, 1.3055, 1.2973
  • Resistance: 1.3145, 1.3181, 1.3306
• Forecast: GBP/USD may continue to trade within a narrow range with potential upward moves if it breaks resistance at 1.3145. However, if the support at 1.3091 fails, it could lead to further declines towards 1.2973. The medium-term trend is bullish but close to a potential shift, so traders should watch for a break below 1.3109 as a signal for a bearish continuation.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


September 5, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD

• Current Sentiment: Bearish
• Support Levels: 1.3055, 1.2973, 1.2932, 1.2848, 1.2800
• Resistance Levels: 1.3158, 1.3202, 1.3306

Analysis: The GBP/USD is under pressure, impacted by mixed U.K. economic data and a dovish outlook from the Bank of England. Market participants expect further rate cuts, which adds to the downside potential. A break below 1.3055 would confirm a continued downtrend. Key resistance lies at 1.3158, and the pair must clear this level to gain upside momentum.

• Forecast: Expect further downside toward 1.3055, with potential breaks leading to 1.2973. The broader outlook remains bearish, with limited upside potential unless U.K. data improves significantly.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


September 6, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD

• Current Trend: Bearish
• Key Support Levels: 1.3127, 1.3055, 1.2973
• Key Resistance Levels: 1.3157, 1.3202, 1.3306
• Forecast: The GBP/USD is also in a bearish trend. A break below the 1.3055 level could signal further weakness. However, the recent strength in the British pound due to the rate cut differential between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve could provide some support.

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Weekly Economic Calendar


September 9-13, 2024



Economic Focus This Week
Key Events:
Wednesday, September 11:

• Key US CPI inflation data to be released (expected to ease YoY inflation).
• UK GDP data in the morning.
• Crude oil inventory report.
• Focus on US CPI data to drive market direction.

Thursday, September 12:

• European Central Bank (ECB) expected to cut rates by 25 basis points.
• US Producer Price Index (PPI) data scheduled.
• ECB press conference to provide economic outlook.

Friday, September 13:

• US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations data to be released.
• Focus on upcoming Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales figures over the weekend.

*For full Economic Calendar and AutoRebateForeX rebates, check below:
https://autorebateforex.com/market-news/key-economic-events-this-week-starting-september-9-2024/