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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 10, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD Forecast:

• Current Outlook: The British pound is under pressure due to mixed economic data from the UK and the strength of the US dollar. Uncertainty over the Bank of England's monetary policy, amid signs of a slowing UK economy, has added to the bearish sentiment.
• Technical Indicators:
  • Support: 1.2100, 1.2000
  • Resistance: 1.2260, 1.2325
• Forecast: GBP/USD could remain weak as the market weighs the BoE’s policy stance. Should the pair break below 1.2100, further losses towards 1.2000 are possible. However, if the pair rebounds from the current support, a short-term recovery could see the pound testing resistance at 1.2260. Strong US economic data could continue to cap any significant GBP/USD rallies.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 11, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD Forecast:
Market Overview:
The GBP has been volatile, influenced by both U.K. economic data and global factors such as U.S. inflation and geopolitical tensions. The Bank of England (BoE) is likely to take a more dovish stance compared to the Fed, putting pressure on the pound.

• Economic Drivers:
  • A strong U.S. dollar, driven by high inflation, will likely continue to keep the GBP under pressure.
  • The U.K. economy is struggling with inflation, but any signs of economic stabilization or dovish Fed commentary could boost the GBP.

Technical Analysis:

• Resistance Levels:
  • 1.2300 (psychological resistance)
  • 1.2400 (strong resistance)
  • 1.2550 (long-term resistance)
• Support Levels:
  • 1.2050 (key support)
  • 1.2000 (psychological support)
  • 1.1900 (previous lows)

Forecast:

• Bullish Scenario: GBP/USD could gain if U.S. inflation weakens, and the Fed delays rate hikes. A move above 1.2300 could target 1.2400 or 1.2550.
• Bearish Scenario: If U.S. inflation rises or the Fed signals aggressive policy tightening, GBP/USD could dip towards 1.2050 and 1.1900.

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Weekly Economic Calendar


October 14-18, 2024



Economic Focus This Week
Key Events:

• Wednesday
  • UK: CPI inflation and PPI data for September.
  • ECB President Lagarde speaks.
• Thursday
  • Australia: September employment figures.
  • Eurozone: ECB expected to cut rates by 25bps.
  • US: Unemployment claims and Retail Sales data.
• Friday
  • China: GDP, industrial production, and retail sales reports.
  • UK: Retail Sales for September.
  • US: Building Permits and Treasury Currency Report.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 15, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD Forecast:

• Current Overview: The GBP/USD is under slight pressure, with investors focusing on key U.K. employment data this week. Market sentiment is leaning bearish ahead of anticipated BoE rate cuts in November and December. Economic data releases, including inflation and retail sales, will dictate short-term market movements.
• Support Levels:
  • 1.3035, 1.3013
• Resistance Levels:
  • 1.3105, 1.3175, 1.3290
• Short-Term Forecast: GBP/USD is expected to trade within a narrow range this week, with support at 1.3035 providing a floor for buyers. A break below this level would target 1.3013 and possibly 1.2986 if employment data disappoints. Resistance around 1.3105 may cap any recovery.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 17, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD

• Current Market Sentiment: Bearish
  • The British pound has fallen below the psychological 1.30 level after soft inflation data. A further rate cut by the BoE is expected in November, which could pressure the pound further.
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 1.2972, 1.2932
  • Resistance: 1.3035, 1.3101
• Forecast:
  • The pound is expected to remain bearish, with immediate support around 1.2972. A break below this level could push the pair toward 1.2932. Any recovery may face strong resistance at 1.3035 and 1.3101.
  • Bullish Scenario: A bounce from 1.2972 could see a recovery toward 1.3035 and potentially 1.3101 if market sentiment improves.
  • Bearish Scenario: A break below 1.2932 could drive the pair further down, with the next key level being 1.2900.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 18, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD
Current Trend: The GBP/USD has fallen sharply below 1.3000, reaching its lowest point since August 19 due to weaker-than-expected UK inflation data.

• Support Levels:
  • 1.2977: Immediate support level.
  • 1.2932: Further downside support.
• Resistance Levels:
  • 1.3001: Resistance level to watch.
  • 1.3071, 1.3101, 1.3171: Additional resistance levels.

Forecast: Continued pressure on the pound from potential Bank of England rate cuts could lead to further declines. However, any positive economic data could help the GBP recover to 1.3001 or higher. The outlook remains bearish unless strong data shifts sentiment.




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Weekly Economic Calendar


October 21-26, 2024



Economic Focus This Week
Key Events:
Thursday, October 24, 2024

• ECB Meeting: The European Central Bank will hold its policy meeting, where no major surprises are expected following last week’s rate cut. However, traders will scrutinize the central bank's forward guidance, especially as markets begin to price in more cuts by year-end.
• U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims: After an unexpected drop last week, jobless claims for the week ending October 19 are anticipated to tick back up slightly to 247,000. Any deviation from this figure could impact market sentiment on the strength of the U.S. labor market.

Friday, October 25, 2024

• Japanese CPI Data: Early in the day, Japan will release its Tokyo CPI data, a key indicator of inflation trends in the region.
• Canadian Retail Sales & U.S. Durable Goods: Retail sales in Canada and durable goods orders in the U.S. will be closely monitored for signals on consumer and business spending trends. In addition, U.S. inflation expectations and consumer sentiment figures will be released, rounding out the week’s data.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 22, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP (British Pound)
The GBP has faced downward pressure, driven by weaker-than-expected economic performance in the UK and the Bank of England's cautious stance on further rate hikes. With inflation still a concern and unemployment inching up, market participants will be watching closely for signs of a potential policy shift.
Technical Overview

• Support levels: 1.2070, 1.2030, 1.1975
• Resistance levels: 1.2200, 1.2275, 1.2340

Forecast
The pound could remain under pressure in the short term, especially if inflation numbers continue to show slow progress toward the BoE’s target. If the GBP/USD breaches support at 1.2070, further declines towards 1.1975 are likely. On the upside, resistance at 1.2200 will be a critical level to watch. Risk sentiment and central bank commentary will shape the outlook for the pound.






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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 23, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP (British Pound)The British Pound has been relatively volatile due to domestic economic concerns, including weak growth data and uncertainty around the Bank of England's (BoE) rate hikes. Although wage growth has remained strong, inflation pressures persist.

• Support Levels: 1.2100, 1.2025
• Resistance Levels: 1.2260, 1.2330

Outlook:
The GBP/USD is likely to remain under pressure as the BoE may approach the end of its rate-hiking cycle, while global risk factors like the Middle East crisis provide temporary relief. Traders should be cautious around the 1.2100 support; a break below it could open the way to 1.2000. On the upside, sustained gains above 1.2260 could see GBP/USD pushing higher toward 1.2330.







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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 25, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD
GBP/USD has rebounded slightly from key confluence levels, supported by minor US Dollar weakening and a technical retracement after recent lows. The Bank of England's dovish stance, amid signs of a slowing economy, may add downward pressure. The upcoming UK budget and potential rate cuts will likely impact GBP's direction.

• Support Levels: 1.2940, 1.2800, 1.2750
• Resistance Levels: 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3250

Cable's move above 1.3000 would confirm a corrective rally, possibly testing the upper range near 1.3100. A drop below the trendline, especially under 1.2800, may signal deeper corrections. Short-term volatility can be expected around key announcements from the UK and the US.





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Weekly Economic Calendar


October 28- November 2, 2024



Economic Focus This Week
Key Events:
Wednesday:

• Australian CPI Data (Sydney Morning)
• German CPI and Spanish Flash CPI (Europe)
• US GDP Figures and ADP Non-Farm Employment Numbers (Simultaneous Release)
• Earnings Reports from Facebook and Microsoft

Thursday:

• Australian Retail Sales Data
• Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI Figures
• Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision
• US PCE Price Index, Employment Cost Index, Weekly Unemployment Claims, and Chicago PMI Numbers
• Earnings Reports from Amazon and Apple (After Hours

Friday:

• US Non-Farm Payrolls
• Switzerlan's CPI Update (London Session)
• US Employment Data (Including Forecasted 111k Increase in Headline Figure, 0.3% Rise in Average Hourly Earnings, and Steady Unemployment Rate at 4.1%)

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 29, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD

• Current Status: GBP/USD is hovering below 1.3000. Trading may remain range-bound due to limited data releases.
• Outlook: With the UK budget release on Wednesday, any surprise policy announcements could impact the pound. Support is seen at 1.2932–1.2940, with resistance near 1.2970–1.3034.
• Technical Levels:
  • Support: 1.2940, 1.2932, and 1.2907
  • Resistance: 1.2970, 1.2988, 1.3011, and 1.3032
• Forecast: A sustained break above 1.3032 would signal bullish momentum, with potential gains toward 1.3071. Failure to hold above 1.2970 may bring the pair down to retest the 1.2932 support.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 30, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD
Current Sentiment: Bearish with Buyer Pressure in Narrow Range

• Key Support Levels: 1.2960, 1.2940, 1.2932, 1.2907
• Key Resistance Levels: 1.2975, 1.2988, 1.3001, 1.3032

Analysis:
GBP/USD is consolidating within a tight range, with some intraday buying momentum. While the broader trend remains bearish, the lack of strong fundamentals keeps the pound at these levels. Strong U.S. data could weaken the pound further, while weaker results may support a test of 1.3001 resistance.
Forecast:
A break above 1.3032 would likely resume the uptrend, targeting higher resistance. In contrast, further declines could find support near 1.2944, and a breakdown could drive GBP/USD toward 1.2907.






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Market Analysis and Forecasts


October 31, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD
Current Factors:

• Focus on the upcoming budget, balancing fiscal risks and low growth in the UK.
• The Bank of England's interest rate expectations remain uncertain, with weaker U.S. data potentially supporting GBP.

Technical Analysis:

• Resistance Levels: 1.3015, 1.3032, with a critical barrier at 1.3071 that could indicate a reversal to bullish territory if breached.
• Support Levels: Immediate support at 1.3003, followed by 1.2979 and 1.2960.

Forecast: Bearish trend with potential for a short-term reversal if U.S. data is weak. However, expect the pair to stay range-bound between 1.2940 and 1.3032 until clear economic data or rate guidance emerges.








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Weekly Economic Calendar


November 4-9, 2024



Economic Focus This Week
Key Events:
Wednesday, November 6

• Focus shifts from politics to monetary policy.
• UK: Bank of England expected to announce a 25 basis-point rate cut.
• U.S.: Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with a similar 25 basis-point cut anticipated.
• Both central bank announcements expected to prompt volatility, though U.S. election updates may still impact market trends.

Friday, November 8

• Quieter on the scheduled events front, yet potential volatility remains.
• Canada: Employment data at the New York market open.
• U.S.: Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment figures.
• China: Over the weekend, traders will watch for key inflation data releases.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


November 5, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD
Market Sentiment: The pound is under pressure due to the UK’s fiscal expansion, but a potential pause by the BoE in rate cuts could stabilize the currency. U.S. economic uncertainty could also drive GBP/USD in the near term.
Technical Analysis:

• Resistance Levels: 1.2999, 1.3028, 1.3071, 1.3103
• Support Levels: 1.2960, 1.2917, 1.2891

Forecast: The GBP/USD is on a downtrend but shows signs of recovery. If the pair breaks through 1.2999, the uptrend could resume, with targets around 1.3028 and 1.3071. Conversely, if it fails to sustain 1.2917, it may target lower supports at 1.2891.







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Market Analysis and Forecasts


November 6, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD

• Current Price Action: GBP/USD is showing a bearish trend, though a recent bounce from 1.2950 suggests buying pressure. However, GBP weakness persists amid cautious UK consumer spending and an overall bearish outlook.
• Support and Resistance:
  • Support: 1.2950, 1.2917, 1.2891
  • Resistance: 1.2999, 1.3032, 1.3071, 1.3103
• Forecast: GBP/USD could test resistance near 1.2999. A breakout above may lead to a push towards 1.3036–1.3071, though weak UK economic data could limit gains. Below 1.2950, downside pressure might resume, with a possible retest of 1.2917 and below.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


November 7, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD has been under pressure following poor UK economic data and anticipation of a rate cut by the Bank of England, which is scheduled for review soon. Trump's win further supported dollar strength, adding to the GBP's decline.
Current Technical Levels

• Support Levels: 1.2848, 1.2733, 1.2642
• Resistance Levels: 1.2919, 1.2950, 1.2982, 1.3023

Outlook
A rate cut from the BoE could accelerate the pound's fall. The macroeconomic environment remains bearish for the pound due to weak PMI figures and concerns over further economic uncertainty in the UK.
If the GBP/USD breaches support at 1.2733, it could test the lower range at 1.2642, further extending losses. A break above resistance at 1.3023 could change the trend to bullish, but this is unlikely given current fundamentals.
Trading Strategies

• Sell Scenario: Look to sell on rallies toward 1.2919 with targets at 1.2848 and 1.2733.
• Buy Scenario: Consider buying only if GBP/USD breaks and consolidates above 1.3023 with upside targets at 1.3100.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


November 8, 2024



Major Currencies:
Current Sentiment: Bearish with resilience
Support Levels: 1.2870, 1.2848, 1.2733, 1.2642
Resistance Levels: 1.2919, 1.2950, 1.2982, 1.3023

• Analysis: GBP/USD showed a modest rebound after the BoE’s rate cut of 0.25%, indicating that while the pound remains pressured, it's more resilient than the euro. With inflation below the BoE’s target and fiscal pressures from the latest UK budget, further BoE rate cuts may be postponed, which could support the pound temporarily. The FOMC meeting could also play a key role in GBP/USD movement depending on dollar strength.
• Forecast:
  • Bearish Continuation: If GBP/USD remains under the resistance of 1.2919, the bearish trend could target support at 1.2848 and then 1.2733.
  • Upside Correction: A breakout above 1.3023 could open further upward potential toward 1.3100 if FOMC signals favor dollar weakness.

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Weekly Economic Calendar


November 11-16, 2024



Economic Focus This Week
Key Events:
Thursday, November 14

• Asian Session:
  • Australia in focus with remarks from Reserve Bank’s Michele Bullock at ASIC’s annual forum.
  • Australian employment data release, which may provide further insight into the region’s labor market health.
• London Session: No major data releases anticipated.
• New York Session: High activity expected with:
  • Release of key US data, including the PPI, weekly unemployment claims, and Oil Inventory figures.
  • Statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and ECB President Christine Lagarde.

Friday, November 15

• Asian Session: Key data from China, including Industrial Production and Retail Sales figures, impacting regional and global market sentiment.
• European Session: Release of preliminary UK GDP data.
• New York Session:
  • Focus on US Retail Sales figures.
  • Empire State Manufacturing Index report is also scheduled, providing insight into US manufacturing conditions.

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