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Market Analysis and Forecasts


November 12, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD
Current Sentiment: Bearish

• Support Levels: 1.2898, 1.2870, 1.2848, 1.2733, 1.2642
• Resistance Levels: 1.2905, 1.2982, 1.3023
• Outlook: The pound is facing downward pressure amid high inflation concerns and the Bank of England's cautious stance on future rate cuts, despite slowing economic data.
• Forecast: GBP/USD is expected to remain bearish, with support levels near 1.2870 and possibly 1.2848. Resistance at 1.2905 and 1.2982 may cap upside attempts. A breakout below 1.2870 could lead to further declines toward 1.2733, while stabilization above 1.2905 would provide minor relief.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


November 13, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD
Market Analysis: GBP/USD is experiencing downward pressure amid weak UK labor market data, with unemployment rising to 4.3%. The market is anticipating that the Bank of England may consider rate cuts in December. This is compounded by a strong dollar environment due to inflation expectations tied to the U.S. administration's trade policies.
Technical Levels:

• Support: 1.2800, 1.2771, 1.2733
• Resistance: 1.2841, 1.2886, 1.2911, 1.2982

Forecast: GBP/USD could remain bearish, potentially testing 1.2733 if the UK’s economic data remains soft. A short-term rebound is possible if the pair finds support around 1.2800, but any recovery above 1.2905 is unlikely unless UK data surprises to the upside or the dollar weakens.




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Market Analysis and Forecasts


November 14, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD
The British pound is also facing selling pressure, driven by the US dollar’s strength and weaker UK economic indicators. Currently trading near 1.2709, the pound dropped below 1.27 for the first time since August. Like the euro, the GBP/USD pair will be impacted by the US inflation report. Higher-than-expected CPI figures may boost the dollar further and weigh on the pound. In the UK, labor market data and wage growth have held up moderately, suggesting some resilience, though the market sentiment remains cautious.
Technical Analysis and Key Levels

• Resistance Levels: 1.2781, 1.2843, 1.2878, 1.2905, 1.2982, 1.3023
• Support Levels: 1.2685, 1.2683, 1.2733, 1.2642
• Current Trend: Bearish

GBP/USD’s bearish trend is intact, with the pair finding initial support at 1.2733. If US CPI data beats expectations, the GBP/USD pair could head lower toward the 1.2642 support. A possible bounce could occur around this level, as the MACD divergence suggests a temporary recovery. Resistance lies at 1.2781 and 1.2843, which may cap any short-term upside.
Outlook: GBP/USD may remain under pressure if the dollar strengthens on US economic data. However, any dovish tone from the Fed or stronger UK economic data could support a short-term rally back toward 1.2788.








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Market Analysis and Forecasts


November 15, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD
Analysis:
The GBP/USD pair has been trading in a downtrend amid mixed UK economic signals and the strengthening USD. Despite positive housing data in the UK, the broader economic picture remains cautious with concerns over GDP growth. In the near term, the GBP is likely to be influenced by upcoming US data and FOMC commentary.
Forecast:
Given the bearish trend and recent technical breakdowns, GBP/USD is likely to continue testing lower support levels unless there is a notable shift in either UK data or USD strength.

• Support Levels: 1.2662, 1.2598, 1.2520
• Resistance Levels: 1.2727, 1.2766, 1.2878
• Technical Trend: Bearish
• Key Events to Watch: UK GDP, US jobless claims and PPI, Fed commentary

Scenarios:

• Bullish Scenario: A break and close above 1.3009 would likely signal a reversal and a bullish shift.
• Bearish Scenario: A breakdown below 1.2598 could accelerate selling pressure toward 1.2520.

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Weekly Economic Calendar


November 18-23, 2024



Economic Focus This Week
Key Events:
Wednesday, November 20, 2024

• A quieter day overall, but pivotal events linger:
• Europe:
  • Markets continue to digest UK CPI data and inflation projections from the BoE.
  • ECB speakers may provide further market cues following Tuesday’s Financial Stability Report.
• US:
  • Weekly oil inventory numbers will attract energy market traders.

Thursday, November 21, 2024

• Central bank speakers dominate the agenda:
• Asia:
  • Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda addresses markets again, followed by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock later in the day.
• North America:
  • US weekly unemployment claims are expected to rise slightly to 225k, while the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Existing Home Sales updates add more market signals.
  • FOMC members, including Goolsbee, Barr, and Hammack, will deliver speeches, potentially shaping expectations for the Fed’s December meeting.

Friday, November 22, 2024

• A packed day closes the week with crucial data across regions:
• Asia:
  • Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI updates for Australia.
• Europe:
  • Key PMI releases from the UK, France, Germany, and the Eurozone, with UK retail sales for October also drawing attention (expected to fall -0.3%).
  • Central bank speakers, including Swiss National Bank’s Martin Schlegel and Bundesbank’s Joachim Nagel, add to the action.
• North America:
  • Canada’s retail sales data for October will shed light on consumer spending trends.
  • The US PMI flash estimates for November, alongside remarks from FOMC member Michelle Bowman, cap off a busy week.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


November 19, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD

• Market Analysis:
  • Bearish Trend: Weak UK GDP growth (+0.1% in Q3) and declining labor productivity are dampening sentiment.
  • Economic Events: UK inflation data this week will be pivotal. Persistent inflation could provide some temporary GBP support.
  • Technical Analysis:
    • Support Levels: 1.2601, 1.2585, 1.2513
    • Resistance Levels: 1.2642, 1.2727, 1.2766
• Forecast:
  • GBP/USD may test the 1.2600 support level. A break below this level could lead to further declines toward 1.2513.
  • Upside resistance at 1.2642 and 1.2727 will likely cap short-term gains unless inflation surprises to the upside.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


November 20, 2024



Major Currencies:
EUR/USD

• Current Status: The EUR/USD pair has shown resilience despite mixed macroeconomic data and hawkish rhetoric from the European Central Bank (ECB). The pair trades near 1.0590, recovering from recent lows.
• Support Levels: 1.0560, 1.0539, 1.0514
• Resistance Levels: 1.0593, 1.0625, 1.0654
• Short-Term Outlook:
  1. Bearish Momentum: Persistent concerns about U.S. economic resilience and inflationary pressures support the dollar, keeping the euro under pressure. If U.S. housing data exceeds expectations, 1.0539 and 1.0514 could be tested again.
  2. Bullish Reversal Potential: A sustained move above 1.0593, backed by ECB hawkishness or weaker U.S. data, could push the pair toward 1.0625. Watch for a breakout above 1.0654, which might signal a medium-term bullish trend.
• Long-Term Outlook: The ECB’s cautious stance on inflation and global trade tensions adds uncertainty. A break below 1.0506 may trigger a prolonged bearish phase.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


November 21, 2024



Major Currencies:
EUR/USD
Market Context: The euro continues to face pressure following the ECB's Financial Stability Review, which highlighted significant risks to the eurozone economy, including rising debt, political uncertainty, and a potential economic downturn. The cautious tone from ECB officials regarding future rate cuts has compounded market uncertainty. With inflation nearing its target and economic growth faltering, markets are pricing in a modest rate cut in December.
Technical Levels:

• Support: 1.0494, 1.0450, 1.0400
• Resistance: 1.0545, 1.0625, 1.0654

Forecast:

• Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD remains bearish as the pair is below critical support levels, with downside momentum fueled by risk-averse sentiment. If 1.0494 is breached, expect a test of 1.0450.
• Medium-term Outlook: ECB's decisions on rate cuts and macroeconomic stability will likely determine medium-term trends. Recovery above 1.0625 could trigger bullish momentum.
• Trading Strategy: Short positions below 1.0545, targeting 1.0494, are favorable. Buying opportunities arise on reversals above 1.0625, targeting 1.0654.

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