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Market Analysis and Forecasts


December 11, 2024



Major Currencies:
EUR/USD

• Current Sentiment: Bearish in the short term due to weak Eurozone economic indicators, political instability in France and Germany, and expectations of ECB rate cuts.
• Technical Levels:
  • Support: 1.0526, 1.0497
  • Resistance: 1.0560, 1.0589
• Forecast: Further downside is likely if the ECB announces aggressive rate cuts. A break below 1.0526 may lead to 1.0490. Conversely, a break above 1.0560 could signal a short-term rally toward 1.0615.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


December 12, 2024



Major Currencies:
GBP/USD

• Current Trend: Bearish
• Key Support Levels: 1.0524, 1.0504, 1.0449
• Key Resistance Levels: 1.0565, 1.0615, 1.0654

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading near the two-year low. The market is awaiting the ECB's monetary policy decision. A potential 25 bps rate cut is expected, which could weaken the Euro. However, a surprise move or a hawkish tone could strengthen the currency.




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Market Analysis and Forecasts


December 13, 2024



Major Currencies:
EUR/USD

• Trend: The EUR/USD trend remains bearish following ECB’s rate cuts and signals of additional easing. The dollar strengthens due to improved U.S. labor market data and inflationary pressures indicated by the PPI.
• Support Levels: 1.0460, 1.0442
• Resistance Levels: 1.0481, 1.0537, 1.0565, 1.0615
• Forecast: A potential corrective rebound to 1.0481 is likely before testing lower supports around 1.0460. Breaking above 1.0610 could shift the trend bullish.

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Weekly Economic Calendar


December 16-21, 2024



Economic Focus This Week
Wednesday, 18 December

• European Session:
  • UK: Consumer Price Index (CPI).
• New York Session:
  • US: FOMC Federal Funds rate decision, followed by the statement and press conference.

Thursday, 19 December

• Asian Session:
  • New Zealand: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures.
  • Japan: Bank of Japan's interest rate decision.
• European Session:
  • UK: Bank of England Official Bank Rate announcement.
• New York Session:
  • US: Final GDP data, Weekly Unemployment Claims, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

Friday, 20 December

• Asian Session:
  • China: Loan Prime Rate updates.
• European Session:
  • UK: Retail Sales figures.
• New York Session:
  • Canada: Retail Sales data.
  • US: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


December 17, 2024



Major Currencies:
EUR/USD

Market Analysis:

• Eurozone PMIs: Mixed data; manufacturing remains in contraction (45.2), services PMI improves (51.4). Germany's weak manufacturing (42.5) is a major drag.
• ECB Outlook: Recent 25-bps cut to 3%, with more cuts expected in 2025 due to weak growth and inflation forecasts. Political instability and potential U.S. tariffs weigh on sentiment.

Forecast:

• Short-Term: The pair is bearish, but weak U.S. PMI data could offer short-term upside.
• Medium-Term: Downward pressure remains due to ECB dovishness and weak economic indicators.

Technical Levels:

• Support: 1.0482, 1.0460, 1.0425
• Resistance: 1.0534, 1.0564, 1.0615
• Strategy:
  • Buy near 1.0482 with targets at 1.0534 (Scenario #2 from MACD setup).
  • Sell below 1.0460 targeting 1.0425.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


December 18, 2024



Major Currencies:
EUR/USD
Current Trend: Bearish
The EUR/USD pair faces persistent downward pressure, reflecting a challenging economic landscape in Europe, highlighted by weakening German business activity and political instability in major economies like Germany and France. Despite temporary rebounds, the overall trend remains bearish unless key resistance levels are decisively broken.
Support Levels:

• 1.0482: Critical short-term support. A break below this level opens the door to further declines toward 1.0460.
• 1.0425: A major liquidity zone; failure to defend could result in deeper bearish moves.

Resistance Levels:

• 1.0537: Immediate resistance; a break above might signal a bullish correction.
• 1.0615: Strong resistance; a consolidation above this level could indicate a medium-term trend reversal.

Forecast:
The pair is likely to trade within a range of 1.0425&1.0537 in the near term. The upcoming US retail sales data and Federal Reserve meeting will play a pivotal role in shaping sentiment. A dovish Fed may provide temporary relief for the euro, but the overall bearish outlook persists unless significant policy changes occur in Europe.







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Market Analysis and Forecasts


December 19, 2024



Major Currencies:
EUR/USD Analysis

• Market Outlook:
  The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure with a bearish hourly trend. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision will significantly influence the pair, especially with high expectations for a dovish tone. The technical structure shows strong support at 1.0482 and resistance at 1.0512.
• Support Levels:
  • 1.0482
  • 1.0460
  • 1.0425
• Resistance Levels:
  • 1.0512
  • 1.0537
  • 1.0565
• Forecast:
  The pair may remain range-bound between 1.0482 and 1.0512 in the short term. A breakout above 1.0512 could target 1.0537, while a breakdown below 1.0482 might lead to 1.0425. Powell’s speech will likely act as the primary catalyst for directional movement.
• 
  
  
  
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Market Analysis and Forecasts


December 20, 2024



Major Currencies:
EUR/USD Analysis
The EUR/USD pair has been trading with a bearish tone after breaking below the critical 1.0400 level. Recent dollar strength, supported by a hawkish Federal Reserve outlook, has put significant pressure on the euro, particularly as the European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a cautious stance amid weak economic indicators in the Eurozone. However, upcoming US data, including GDP and jobless claims, could provide volatility and influence the pair's direction.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:

• Support: 1.0332, 1.0375, 1.0400
• Resistance: 1.0425, 1.0460, 1.0483

Technical Outlook:
The pair's hourly trend remains bearish, with no clear signs of reversal. The euro's decline could continue toward 1.0332 if dollar strength persists. Conversely, a breakout above 1.0425 may initiate a retracement toward 1.0460.
Forecast:
In the short term, EUR/USD is likely to test the 1.0332 support level. Weak US data could trigger a bounce to the 1.0459 area, but the bearish outlook remains dominant unless the pair consolidates above 1.0483.





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Weekly Economic Calendar


December 23-28, 2024



Economic Focus This Week
Wednesday, 25 December 2024 (Christmas Day)

• Global Market Conditions:
  • Most major financial markets will be closed for the holiday, resulting in significantly reduced trading activity.
• Japanese Markets:
  • Japan remains open, creating a unique opportunity for the yen to experience significant moves in otherwise subdued global conditions.
  • Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is scheduled to speak, which could influence yen volatility.

Thursday, 26 December 2024 (Boxing Day)

• Global Market Conditions:
  • Most major markets will remain closed, but forex trading will continue, leaving room for sharp price movements in low-liquidity conditions.
• U.S. Markets:
  • The U.S. reopens for trading, with the following data releases in focus:
    • Weekly Unemployment Claims, providing a snapshot of the labor market.
    • Oil Inventory Numbers, which could affect energy markets.

Friday, 27 December 2024

• Asian Session:
  • Japanese markets take center stage with the release of Tokyo CPI data, an important measure of inflation trends.
• Global Conditions:
  • While most markets will technically be back in operation, liquidity is expected to remain thin.
  • Geopolitical developments and unexpected news could trigger sharp moves, keeping traders on edge.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


December 24, 2024



Major Currencies:
EUR/USD

• Current Trend: Bearish
• Support Levels: 1.0422, 1.0387, 1.0361
• Resistance Levels: 1.0460, 1.0513, 1.0565
• Analysis: The EUR/USD remains under pressure amid expectations of stronger U.S. consumer confidence data, which could bolster the dollar. The pair corrected upward but failed to break key resistance. The ECB's ongoing monetary tightening provides long-term support, but immediate risks include U.S. economic resilience.
• Forecast: Short-term downside toward 1.0387–1.0361, unless 1.0513 is breached.
• Trading Tips: Look for selling opportunities near 1.0460 with a target of 1.0387. Buying should be considered only if the price consolidates above 1.0513.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


December 27, 2024



Major Currencies:
EUR/USD
Analysis:
The pair is currently in a low-volatility environment, with limited catalysts for movement. The focus remains on U.S. labor market data, but significant deviations are unlikely given the year-end seasonality.
Support Levels:

• 1.0380 (near-term support; potential for false breakout and reversal).
• 1.0347 (weekly low and critical defense for buyers).

Resistance Levels:

• 1.0413 (first key resistance; sellers are expected to defend aggressively).
• 1.0446 (secondary resistance; a breakout above could trigger bullish momentum).

Forecast:

• A breakout above 1.0413 could lead to a test of 1.0446 and possibly 1.0476.
• Failure to hold above 1.0380 may signal a retest of 1.0347 or lower.

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Weekly Economic Calendar


January 6-11, 2024



Economic Focus This Week
Wednesday, January 8, 2025

• Asian Session: Australian CPI (first major Australian data release of the year).
• European Session: Light calendar.
• U.S. Session:
  • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.
  • Crude Oil Inventories.
  • December FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Thursday, January 9, 2025

• Asian Session:
  • Australian Retail Sales.
  • Chinese CPI and PPI.
• European Session: No significant events.
• U.S. Session: Weekly Unemployment Claims.

Friday, January 10, 2025

• Asian Session: Limited activity.
• European Session: Quiet calendar.
• U.S. Session:
  • Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and U.S. employment data (key focus of the day).
  • Canadian employment data (released simultaneously).
  • Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations (secondary focus).

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


January 7, 2025



Major Currencies:
EUR/USD

• Market Sentiment: EUR/USD experienced sharp gains, rising 0.91% to trade around 1.0403, buoyed by expectations of higher German CPI figures. However, weak German economic fundamentals and persistent U.S. dollar strength cap upside potential.
• Key Drivers:
  • Anticipated increase in German CPI (2.4%) underscores inflationary pressures but highlights the ECB’s cautious approach to monetary policy.
  • U.S. Services PMI remains strong, supporting economic optimism and dollar strength.
• Support and Resistance Levels:
  • Support: 1.0203, 1.0098
  • Resistance: 1.0436, 1.0564

Forecast:
EUR/USD is expected to consolidate in the near term between 1.0330 and 1.0430. A sustained break above 1.0436 may push the pair toward 1.0564. Conversely, if U.S. economic data exceeds expectations, a retest of 1.0203 is likely.







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Market Analysis and Forecasts


January 8, 2025



Major Currencies:
EUR/USD
Market Analysis: The euro has seen moderate declines after a sharp rally in the last two trading sessions. With the Eurozone's CPI climbing to 2.4% y/y and Germany's inflation rising to 2.6% y/y in December, the region faces growing stagflation risks. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lower rates further in early 2025 to support the struggling economy, potentially weakening the euro.
Technical Analysis:

• Resistance Levels: 1.0374, 1.0453, 1.0493
• Support Levels: 1.0312, 1.0233
• Trend: Mixed, with bullish potential in the short term if resistance levels break.

Forecast: EUR/USD could test the 1.0374 resistance level before pulling back to 1.0312 if downward momentum resumes. A sustained break above 1.0374 would open the door to 1.0453.
Scenarios:

1. Bullish: Breakout above 1.0374 with consolidation could see EUR/USD targeting 1.0453.
2. Bearish: Failure to hold above 1.0312 could push the pair toward 1.0233.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


January 9, 2025



Major Currencies:
EUR/USD
Market Analysis

• Trend: Bearish
• Key Factors:
  • Strong U.S. labor market data (ADP report and initial jobless claims) is likely to support the dollar.
  • Eurozone inflation is consistent with ECB expectations, but dovish sentiment persists with rate cut speculation.
  • Resistance at 1.0382 held, confirming sellers' control.

Forecast

• Support Levels: 1.0328, 1.0280, 1.0243
• Resistance Levels: 1.0382, 1.0425, 1.0493
• Outlook:
  • Bearish unless 1.0425 is breached.
  • Short-term recovery possible to 1.0382 but likely capped by stronger U.S. economic indicators.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


January 10, 2025



Major Currencies:
EUR/USD

1. Current Sentiment: Bearish.
2. Support Levels: 1.0272, 1.0223.
3. Resistance Levels: 1.0326, 1.0357, 1.0382.
4. Analysis: The euro continues to face headwinds due to widening monetary policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed. Strong U.S. data, coupled with hawkish Fed rhetoric, could lead to further declines.
5. Forecast: If the pair consolidates below 1.0272, a test of 1.0223 is likely. However, a break above 1.0357 could signal a short-term bullish correction targeting 1.0382.

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