Daily Market Analysis By zForex

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.31.2024​

Dollar Holds Steady as Fed Rate Outlook Guides Year-End Trading​

Global markets wrap up the year with the euro near $1.04 and the yen showing slight gains, as the Federal Reserve’s 2025 outlook limits rate cut expectations.

Gold remains stable above $2,600 despite subdued holiday trading and a cautious Fed stance, while silver dips below $29 amid weaker industrial demand and central bank hawkishness. Investors look to upcoming U.S. data releases for clues on future policy and market direction.

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EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.31.2024​

EUR/USD Steady as Strong Dollar Dominates Year-End Trading​

The EUR/USD trades near 1.0410, while the dollar index holds steady at 107.9 on Tuesday, close to two-year highs as the year ends. The US dollar is set to gain over 6% annually, driven by the Fed's hawkish stance and reduced expectations for 2025 rate cuts, now forecasted at 50 basis points. Support also comes from expectations that President-elect Donald Trump's pro-growth policies, including tax cuts, tariffs, and deregulation, will fuel inflation and sustain high US yields.

From a technical perspective, the first resistance level is at 1.0465, with further resistance levels at 1.0515 and 1.0575 if the price breaks above. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0330, followed by additional support levels at 1.0300 and 1.0230.

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Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 12.31.2024​

Gold Holds Firm Despite Fed Outlook and Q4 Pressures​

Gold held above $2,600 per ounce on Tuesday after two days of declines, with minimal movement as investors awaited market drivers. Traders focused on the US economy, Trump’s tariff policies, and the Fed’s monetary stance, which could influence gold’s direction. Persistent inflation and strong labor data led the Fed to project fewer rate cuts, weighing on gold in Q4. Still, gold is set for a 27% annual gain, its best since 2010, driven by safe-haven demand amid global conflicts and significant central bank purchases, including from the PBoC, which helped push prices to a record $2,790 in September.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2635 level. In case of this level’s breach, next levels to watch would be 2655 and 2670 consequently. On the downside 2600 will be the first support level. 2575 and 2545 are next levels to monitor if first support level is breached.

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Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.02.2025​

Dollar Starts 2025 Softer Amid Stable Yen and Gold Extending Gains​

The euro trades near $1.0370 as the dollar index eases from last year's strength, supported by rising U.S. yields and anticipated pro-growth Trump policies.

The yen holds at 157 amid potential BOJ rate changes and intervention risks, while gold climbs above $2,630 on continued safe-haven appeal. The pound hovers around 1.2535, awaiting U.S. data for further cues, and silver gains despite subdued China PMI figures, with investors looking to upcoming U.S. reports for market direction.

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Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.02.2025​

Gold Rises Above $2,630, Extending Best Rally Since 2010​

Gold rose above $2,630 per ounce on Thursday, extending last year’s 27% rally, its best since 2010, driven by US monetary easing, geopolitical risks, and record central bank purchases. Investors focus on Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s cautious stance on rate cuts amid rising inflation, which has slightly reduced gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. Meanwhile, attention turns to potential challenges under the Trump administration and China’s economic revitalization efforts. A World Gold Council survey suggests continued central bank gold buying, supporting demand.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2640 level. In case of this level’s breach, next levels to watch would be 2655 and 2670 consequently. On the downside 2600 will be the first support level. 2575 and 2545 are next levels to monitor if first support level is breached.

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GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.02.2025​

GBP/USD Starts New Year at 1.2535 Ahead of US Data​

The GBP/USD pair started trading in the new year at around 1.2535. In the later hours of the day, the upcoming PMI and unemployment data from the US, along with a relatively quiet economic calendar in the UK, are expected to create volatility in the GBP/USD pair.

The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2600. In case of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2645 and 1.2700. On the downside 1.2500 will be the first support level. 1.2460 and 1.2400 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - (01.03.2025)​

Dollar Rise Continues, Euro and Yen Under Pressure​

The US dollar strengthened against the euro as the US economy outperformed, leading to fewer expected Fed rate cuts.

The yen weakened despite intervention, while gold held steady amid geopolitical tensions and central bank demand. The GBP/USD pair fell sharply due to risk-off sentiment and fewer expected US rate cuts. Silver benefited from a pause in rising bond yields.

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EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.03.2025​

US Economic Resilience Drives Dollar Higher​

The EUR/USD pair is trading at around 1.0237 on Friday morning. The dollar index remains above 109, holding near its highest levels in two years, as investors bet on the strength of the U.S. economy and fewer rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, positioning it to outperform other global economies in the short term.

The Fed has indicated a more cautious approach to policy easing in 2025 due to ongoing inflation concerns. Current projections suggest only two quarter-point rate cuts this year, significantly lower than the 100 basis points expected in September. Additionally, uncertainties surrounding the incoming Trump administration made investors look forward to Friday’s ISM Manufacturing Index and comments from Fed officials for further economic insights.

From a technical perspective, the first resistance level is at 1.0360, with further resistance levels at 1.0460 and 1.0520 if the price breaks above. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0250, followed by additional support levels at 1.0220 and 1.0150.

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Yen Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.03.2025​

Japanese Officials Intervene as USD/JPY Edges Lower​

The USD/JPY pair traded lower, near 157.30, during Friday’s Asian session. Japanese officials' verbal intervention supported the Japanese yen (JPY). However, uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy outlook could limit further gains for the JPY. Japanese markets are closed for the rest of the week, and traders are preparing for the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for December later on Friday.

Last week, Japan's Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, reiterated concerns about the weakening yen, warning that appropriate measures would be taken to address excessive currency fluctuations. For the coming week, the BoJ will release its quarterly report on regional economic conditions, which is expected to provide an update on whether wage increases are becoming more widespread across Japan. This report could offer valuable insights ahead of the BoJ’s policy meeting on January 24.

Meanwhile, speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more cautiously in 2025, coupled with optimism about the US economy, could support the US dollar (USD). The Fed has signaled a more measured approach to rate reductions as inflation remains above its 2% target, and the economy remains strong. Additionally, the policies of Trump are expected to stimulate growth and potentially drive inflation, which could slow the pace of future rate cuts by the Fed.

The key resistance level appears to be 158.30, with a break above it potentially targeting 160.00 and 161.00. On the downside, 154.90 is the first major support, followed by 153.40 and 152.40 if the price moves lower.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.06.2025​

Gold's Shine Fades, Euro Slumps​

The euro fell to its lowest since 2022, pressured by ECB rate cut expectations, while the yen weakened on BoJ policy uncertainty and a strong US dollar.
Gold dipped below $2,640 as traders awaited key US economic data, with geopolitical pressures offering limited support. The pound remained near an eight-month low due to weak UK data and US dollar strength, and silver steadied at $29.60, supported by China's economic measures on global uncertainties. Key resistance and support levels highlighted crucial thresholds for traders across all assets.

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Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.06.2025​

Economic Data and Fed Policy Outlook Drive Gold Prices​

Gold traded below $2,640 per ounce on Monday as traders awaited a series of US economic data releases this week to gauge the Federal Reserve’s approach to rate cuts. Key events included job openings, the minutes from the Fed's December meeting, and the non-farm payrolls report. Over the weekend, comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed Governor Adriana Kugler reinforced expectations that the US central bank will take a more cautious stance on interest rate cuts this year. Furthermore, the economic policies of the incoming Donald Trump administration are expected to increase inflation, potentially limiting the Fed's ability to reduce rates. This could diminish the appeal of non-yielding gold. However, the precious metal continues to find support from ongoing geopolitical tensions and expectations of sustained central bank buying.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2665 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 2695 and 2725 consequently. On the downside 2630 will be the first support level. 2620 and 2600 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

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GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.06.2025​

Economic Worries Push Pound to 8-Month Low​

The GBP/USD pair is struggling to build on Friday's modest recovery and remains range-bound, holding above the 1.2400 level at the start of the new week. The pair is still near its lowest point since April 2024, hit last week, and appears vulnerable to extending its three-month downtrend, weighed down by a strong US dollar.

The USD Index remains near a two-year high, supported by optimism over Trump's expansionary policies and the Fed's hawkish stance. Concerns about Trump's proposed tariffs, combined with geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine war and rising tensions in the Middle East, are strengthening the US dollar and creating headwinds for the GBP/USD pair.

At the same time, sentiment around the British Pound remains weak, driven by a series of disappointing data from the UK and uncertainty regarding the fiscal strategy of the newly elected Labour government. The Bank of England's dovish outlook and its decision to keep interest rates unchanged in December amid a split vote continue to pressure the GBP. As a result, the negative outlook for the GBP/USD pair remains intact, with traders awaiting the final UK Services PMI for potential new direction.

The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2480. In case of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2570 and 1.2600. On the downside 1.2350 will be the first support level. 1.2300 and 1.2265 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.07.2025​

Weaker Dollar Increases Euro, Yen Near Intervention, Metals Steady​

The euro edges toward 1.0400 on dollar weakness and upbeat Eurozone data, while the yen hovers below 158, raising concerns of potential intervention as the BOJ mulls rate hikes.

Gold remains steady above $2,630, supported by geopolitical risks and central bank buying, despite rising U.S. yields. Meanwhile, the pound eyes resistance at 1.2570 ahead of Fed insights, and silver holds above $31 with help from a weaker dollar and positive China PMI. Markets now turn to upcoming U.S. data, including the ISM Services PMI and Fed minutes, for policy direction.

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Yen Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.07.2025​

Yen Falls Below 158 as Intervention Warnings Loom​

The Japanese yen fell below 158 per dollar on Tuesday, a five-month low, prompting Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato to warn against speculative moves and signal readiness to intervene if volatility persists.

The yen's decline, nearing the 160 level that triggered intervention six months ago, stems from uncertainty over Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hikes. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that policy changes depend on economic, inflation, and wage conditions, urging caution amid domestic and global uncertainties.

The key resistance level appears to be 158.30, with a break above it potentially targeting 160.00 and 161.00. On the downside, 154.90 is the first major support, followed by 153.40 and 152.40 if the price moves lower. 

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Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.07.2025​

Gold Holds Ground Amid Rising Yields and Geopolitical Support​

Gold held steady at $2,630 per ounce on Tuesday, despite pressure from rising U.S. Treasury yields. On Monday, gold dipped 1% but rebounded after President-elect Trump dismissed reports of scaling back his tariff plans. Investors now await U.S. labor market data and Fed meeting minutes for rate insights. Fed Governor Lisa Cook highlighted cautious rate cuts amid labor market strength and inflation, which could weigh on gold. However, geopolitical tensions and strong central bank demand continue to support the metal.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2665 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 2695 and 2725 consequently. On the downside 2630 will be the first support level. 2620 and 2600 are the next levels to monitor if first support level is breached.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.08.2025​

Silver Surges on China Growth, Fed Minutes to Shape Outlook​

Global markets fluctuate as economic data and central bank policies shape trends.
EUR/USD rose to 1.0350, yen weakened near intervention levels, and gold held steady at $2,640 under dollar strength. Silver rallied to $30.10 on Chinese growth optimism, while GBP/USD stayed pressured by diverging monetary policies. Traders eye US labor data and FOMC Minutes for insights.

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EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.08.2025​

EUR/USD Gains Ground, but Fed Minutes Loom​

The EUR/USD pair has strengthened to around 1.0350 in the early European session on Wednesday. However, the pair’s potential for further upside may be limited by expectations of slower interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2025. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes later today will reveal more clues.

The US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 54.1 in December, up from 52.1 in the previous month and exceeding the market consensus of 53.3. Additionally, the number of Job Openings in the US surged to 8.09 million in November, surpassing both the previous month’s reading of 7.83 million and the market expectation of 7.7 million.

Hawkish remarks from Fed officials have reinforced the outlook for tighter policy. Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that inflation is expected to gradually decline to the Fed’s 2% target, but policymakers must be cautious due to uneven progress in tackling inflation. He suggested that keeping interest rates high may be necessary to maintain price stability. Earlier in the week, Fed Governor Lisa Cook emphasized that rate cuts should be approached with caution, given the strong labor market and persistent inflation pressures.

The ECB is expected to reduce rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting on January 30, with traders forecasting more than 100 basis points of cuts throughout the year. Today, German Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released. Strong results could provide support for the euro.

From a technical perspective, the first resistance level is at 1.0460, with further resistance levels at 1.0515 and 1.0575 if the price breaks above. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0335, followed by additional support levels at 1.0270 and 1.0220.

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Silver Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.08.2025​

Silver Extends Rally on China Growth Hopes​

Silver prices extended their five-day rally, trading near $30.10 per troy ounce during Wednesday’s Asian session. The metal is gaining momentum with uncertainty over tariff policies ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration. Trump recently denied a Washington Post report claiming his team might narrow the scope of proposed tariffs to focus on key imports.

Meanwhile, strong economic signals from China, the largest silver consumer, are boosting demand. The People’s Bank of China is working with the State Planner to stimulate growth. PBoC official Peng Lifeng announced plans to support banks in expanding loans under a trade-in initiative to bolster the economy.

However, silver prices face pressure from a stronger US dollar, which makes the metal more expensive for foreign buyers. The US Dollar Index remains above 108.50, supported by a surge in the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.68%. This reflects shifting expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policies following strong US economic data, including a strong ISM services report suggesting persistent inflation.

Higher interest rates weigh on silver as a non-yielding asset. Traders now await US labor data, including the Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report and FOMC Minutes, for further policy cues.

On the technical front, resistance is at $30.20, with further levels at $30.70 and $31.00 if breached. Support lies at $29.85, with $28.50 and $28.00 as additional levels if the first support is broken.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.09.2025​

Risk Aversion Returns as Euro Plummets​

The Euro weakened significantly against the US Dollar, driven by a sharp decline in German Factory Orders and expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank.

The US Dollar gained strength from hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, concerns over Trump's trade policies, and an underperforming ADP employment report. Gold dipped to $2,650 but found support from ETF inflows and weaker U.S. private employment figures.

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EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.09.2025​

Euro Extends Losses, German Factory Orders Plunge​

The EUR/USD pair remains in negative territory for the third straight day, trading near 1.0310 during Thursday’s early European session. Weak German Factory Orders for November and expectations of aggressive ECB rate cuts this year are pressuring the euro. Focus later shifts to Eurozone Retail Sales and remarks from Federal Reserve officials.

German Factory Orders dropped 5.4% month-over-month in November, higher than October’s 1.5% decline and the expected flat reading, further weighing on the euro.

The dollar index held steady at 109 as markets analyzed the Fed’s December meeting minutes, which highlighted inflation concerns and the potential economic impacts of Trump’s trade and immigration policies. The Fed signaled it may soon slow the pace of policy easing. Reports of Trump considering a national economic emergency for tariffs also supported the dollar. Meanwhile, the ADP report showed private-sector employment fell to a four-month low in December, raising labor market concerns ahead of Friday’s payrolls report.

Technically, resistance is at 1.0460, with further levels at 1.0515 and 1.0575. Support is at 1.0270, followed by 1.0220 and 1.0125.

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Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.09.2025​

Gold Dips, ETF Inflows Offer Support​

Gold edged lower to around $2,650 per ounce on Thursday, reversing two days of gains as investors assessed the Fed's policy outlook ahead of key jobs data. FOMC minutes indicated inflation may slow this year but highlighted persistent price risks, partly influenced by Trump’s policies. The Fed also hinted at potentially slowing the pace of policy easing, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets.

The precious metal received some support from a weaker-than-expected private employment report for December, suggesting the Fed might ease its stance on rate cuts. Additionally, gold-backed ETFs recorded their first inflows in four years, led by Asia, with North American funds seeing their first positive annual flow since 2020 and European outflows declining compared to 2023, according to the World Gold Council.

Resistance is at 2,665, with additional levels at 2,695 and 2,725. Support stands at 2,630, followed by 2,620 and 2,600.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.10.2025​

Hawkish Fed Pressures Euro, Metals Gain, Yen Near Intervention Level​

Global markets braced for more hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, keeping the euro near 1.0300 amid limited rate-cut prospects.
The yen hovered at multi-month lows despite strong inflation data in Japan, while gold and silver drew support from safe-haven demand and ongoing uncertainties under a potential Trump administration. Sterling remained weak in the face of higher UK yields, and investors turned their attention to the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls data for further clues on monetary policy.

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Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.10.2025​

Gold Steady Ahead of US Payroll Data as ETF Demand Rises​

Gold held above $2,670 per ounce on Friday, poised for its best week since mid-November. Traders await US payroll data, which is expected to show steady job growth, which could reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts this year, aligning with FOMC minutes citing inflation concerns tied to Trump’s policies. The World Gold Council reported that gold-backed ETFs saw their first inflows in four years, with demand rising in Asia and North American funds recording their first annual inflow since 2020, while European outflows declined.

Technically, the first resistance level will be 2685 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 2725 and 2750 consequently. On the downside 2630 will be the first support level. 2620 and 2600 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

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GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 01.10.2025​

Rising UK Yields Fail to Lift Pound Amid Capital Outflows​

GBP/USD remained weak for a fourth day, trading near 1.2300 on Friday after hitting a low of 1.2238 on Thursday, its lowest since November 2023. The British Pound struggled amid concerns over the UK’s fiscal and inflation outlook, which hurt investor sentiment. Despite long-term UK bond yields rising with the 30-year yield at its highest since 1998 and the 10-year yield at 2008 levels, the Pound saw no support, as capital outflows fueled by inflation and fiscal worries outweighed the benefits of higher yields.

The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2350. In case of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2410 and 1.2500. On the downside 1.2265 will be the first support level. 1.2190 and 1.2100 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.