Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart (Fundamentals)

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for NZD/USD: August 22, 2016

The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7264 points after gaining a 1% increase during the week due to an upsurge in dairy prices and a generally positive data flow. The positive data for dairy prices was due to an increase in the global dairy auction, with the average pricing going up from 12.7% to $2731 per tonne, with a 6.6% increase during the auction.

Speculators in the market had predicted a 25-point basis cut as central banks are pushing for inflation rates to go back at the 1-3% rate in order to counter high currencies. The governor of the Reserve Bank has also stated that they are willing to further cut down on interest rates since there is a renewed pressure on the NZD as international conditions are continuing to weaken and interest rates remain low. He also stated that the Reserve Bank is currently having difficulties to meet its target inflation rate since the exchange rate must decline first in order to make way for added inflation.

The financial market could also become undermined if the surges in the housing market continue, while the domestic economy remains on the positive side due to an added strength in its tourism and migration data, as well as low interest rates. Commodity prices also increased by at least 2%, its highest index since October 2015.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for EUR/USD: August 24, 2016


The EUR/USD pair had little response to the positive composite PMI data, with the EUR trading up to 25 points before the data release and remained at 1.1345 near its highest range point as the USD continued to weaken. Manufacturing PMI data went below its expected range but went above the 50-divider line.

The economic status of the eurozone maintained its status in August, with its growth showing that it is unlikely to be cut back as a result of a possible fallout following the Brexit referendum. The composite PMI for the eurozone rose in July, from 53.2 to 53.3 points, going above the 50 level which separates expansion from contraction and is the best reading for the region in seven months. IHS Markit has stated that the eurozone’s economy remains on the steady side, with an estimated 0.3% GDP for this quarter, similar to the first half average of 2015.

Speculators are now awaiting the Federal Reserve’s chairwoman Janet Yellen’s statement at the Jackson Hole Symposium this coming Friday. Investors will be monitoring this symposium as this has been the platform used by the Fed to warn of either a tightening or a loosening of monetary policy.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: August 25, 2016

The USD/CAD pair went higher during Wednesday’s session, trading at 1.2942 after increasing by 0.0031 or +0.24%. This increase in the pair was due to speculations that Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will be delivering a possibly hawkish statement on Friday’s Jackson Hole Wyoming central bankers’ symposium. The CAD also weakened after a sudden build caused crude oil prices to go lower than 1.50%. This sharp sell-off occurred after an unexpected stockpile increase as stated by the US Energy Information Administration, causing renewed concerns about the surplus in international supply.


The government of Alberta, Canada raised its 2016-17 budget deficit forecast to C$10.9 billion last Tuesday, after the disastrous wildfire that ripped through the region caused damages in Fort McMurray’s oil sands hub.


If the USD continues to strengthen against the CAD and crude oil prices further decrease, then the daily pattern chart shows an upside shift in momentum. However, crude oil prices can also experience a sudden surge especially if Janet Yellen’s statement on Friday turns out to be dovish, or both OPEC and non-OPEC countries opt for a production freeze. Large payoffs are expected, however, if crude levels go lower than this month’s levels and if the Fed’s statement signals at least one rate hike before the year comes to a close.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: August 26, 2016

The USD/JPY pair remained within its range while the markets are awaiting Janet Yellen’s speech within today. Aside from the Fed’s statement release, investors are also anticipating the release of Japan’s inflation data, which is expected to cause volatility in the yen’s current value. The BoJ might not be able to extend additional support to either the Japanese economy or to assist inflation rates while employers refuse to have a wage increase, causing stagnation in the country’s economic cycle. The IMF has also recently noticed that Abenomics was not able to use its three-arrow plan in order to boost the economic status in Asia.

The index of Nikkei 225 increased by 10% since June and the JPY has also increased in relation to the USD. This might become a problem for stocks since a strengthening yen would not attract exporters as it can decrease their foreign profits especially when converted to their local currencies. Investors are also worried that the Bank of Japan might dominate financial markets after the BoJ doubled its purchases of Tokyo-based shares, which can cause distortions in prices. This will also make it harder for investors to separate functional companies from non-functional ones, and can also cause misallocation of capital and can reduce incentives which are needed by companies to attain shareholder needs.

The Bank of Japan has previously attempted to revitalize the Japanese economy and put a stop to years of deflation by way of purchasing large amounts of assets, thereby flooding the economy with cash. This has mostly included corporate bonds, JGBs, and ETFs.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 26 2016

The Aussie and the US dollar hover to the range bound periods raised with 11 points at 0.7624. The quantitative measures indicated a low level but will experience a slight effect because of the grand news of Yellen on her Jackson Hole speech. The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group reported that AUD strengthened which influence the economic growth while exports from the region like coal and iron ore are consistent to have the largest volume of supply among countries all over the world.

Subsequent to the unsatisfactory rate of the AUD yesterday due to a lower-than-expected results of the infrastructures, Australian dollar still gained positively.

Australian reports have noted the statement from one of the largest government owned company of the continent, QIC Global Liquid Strategies with the head of the pension managers, Ms. Katrina King said that at US 77 cents, AUD is seen to be overvalued by 10% evaluated by the RBA's newly-developed in-house economic modeling.

While Mr. Roy Teo, an analyst from said that the ABN Amro Bank NV ended their recommendations during the closing of the third quarter since they perceived that the AUD will be bearish with a target price of 72 cents. Reports from Bloomberg issued a forecast from the RBA about the ease of movement on November and expecting the AUD to finished with 74 cents on year end.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for GBP/USD: August 30, 2016

The GBP/USD pair decreased by 38 points as the dollar continued to surge after the statement release by the Federal Reserve last Friday. The GBP rallied by 0.5%, hitting its highest in three weeks at 1.3264 following Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s speech at Wyoming. The GBP decreased but is still above $1.31. Prior to the Fed statement, the GBP has been experiencing an increase after data from the Office for National Statistics showed that the UK had a 0.6% economic growth for the second quarter.

Investors are expecting low volatility for the UK market, as the market is closed on Monday due to the Summer Bank holiday. The August survey for UK’s construction and manufacturing data are expected to recover slightly after a massive downgrade in July, which can reduce the possibility of the country going into a recession next year. Investors and speculators are also confident that the UK economy will be revitalized after the Brexit referendum.

The UK will also be releasing its plans this week regarding its objective to retain its single market access on a per sector basis.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: August 30 2016

The USD accrued by making a 2-week high in spite of the reports concerning the increment in price introduced by the Fed to be imposed for the next month. Furthermore, the yen resumed to subsidize the dollar.

When the pair heightened its rate on Monday, it secured a concrete resistance level at 102.50 but did not permitted any price gains. The current resistance of the doolar and yen is 102.50, the level of support identified at 101.40.

MACD presented a positive movement, the histogram denoted the buyer's’ strength and the RSI is seen in overbought area.

USD/JPY moves through the 4-hour chart and broke 200-EMA and ascended the moving averages of 50, 100 and 200. The trading pair seems bullish after the growth of its resistance level of 102.50.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for AUD/USD: August 31, 2016

The AUD/USD pair went up by a few trading points but had limited gains as the US Dollar continued to increase its value. The release of the housing data yesterday caused building permits to go above as expected. In July 2016, the volume of approved houses went up by 0.2%, necclinching an eight-month steady increase, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

In the area of New South Wales and Victoria, the total number of approved houses surged in July by up to 2.4% but has seen a drop in the area of Queensland, Tasmania, and Australian Capital Territory. The AUD is presently trading at 0.7571, a drop from its previous weekly high. Meanwhile the USD is steadily increasing after the Fed statement in Wyoming.

After the non-farm payrolls data were released last Friday, the USD index rallied as the market adjusts into a steady holding pattern.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: September 1, 2016

The USD went up slightly higher than the JPY during Wednesday’s session as investors are waiting for the latest updates on the economic status of the United States. The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 103.259 points, going up by +0.30% or 0.304. Volatility and volume levels were on a below average level since majority of the currency players in the market are staying on the sidelines prior to the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday, which will be determining the frequency and timing of the oncoming Fed rate increases.


Tuesday’s trading session saw an increase in the USD/JPY pair, after the consumer confidence report in August showed an increase at 101.1, its highest in a year. However, newfound concerns regarding the overall state of the Japanese economy arose as the release of industrial production figures for Japan surprised economists who were expecting two consecutive monthly gains, insinuating the possibility that the Japanese economy might be failing to sustain its progress for the third quarter.


Traders and investors are now waiting for the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Report, which is expected to show an increase in jobs offered by the private sector. A below average data could further weaken the USD/JPY, but the onset of the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls Report on Friday might help in alleviating possible losses.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for EUR/USD: September 2, 2016


The EUR/USD pair went down by 6 points today as the unemployment rates in the European Union went up and the USD continued to strengthen. The PMI data for the eurozone also came out lower than expected at 51.7 points. The EUR is currently trading at 1.1151, indicating that the pair is currently at the bottom rung of its trading range.


The US jobs data showed an additional 177,000 jobs in the private sector last month, with a significant number of firms and industries adding up their payrolls. On the other hand, last week’s Fed statement are hinting at a possible interest rate hike in September, and if the payroll data comes out stronger than expected, investors should expect an increased volatility in the market.


During the past five years, the August data for US Non-Farm Payrolls has always been erratic, and it is expected to miss again for this period. Traders are then warned of sudden price moves among all asset classes due to the said positions, regardless of whether the data comes out as positive or negative.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: September 6, 2016

The EUR/GBP traded higher by 3 points, going up at 0.8403. However, the pair still remains at the bottom rung of its trading average since the GBP has been bouncing back during the past sessions, especially since UK economic data reports has shown that the Brexit vote did not have that much of an adverse effect to the economy in contradiction to the initial speculations. Financial institutions such as the IMF has also stated that they are now reevaluating the situation since the Bank of England’s foresight has prevented further damage to the UK economy.


Meanwhile, the EUR went slightly higher at 84 pence. However, this is not far from Friday’s all-week low of 83.76 points. The construction and manufacturing surveys for the eurozone showed a major comeback, while the manufacturing PMI data recovered from July’s three-year low and traded at 53.3 points in August, its highest trading point reached in 10 months. On the other hand, the construction PMI data went up to 49.2 points from July’s 45.9 points, going over the speculations indicated in economic polls.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for NZD/USD: September 7, 2016


The NZD/USD pair weakened in relation to the USD, trading at 0.7231 points after the Reserve Bank of Australia held fast to its interest rates and monetary policies. The NZD might increase after the release of data from the GlobalDairyTrade auction tonight, where there is an expected surge in the prices of milk powder. Traders and speculators are now monitoring the data for wholesale trade for the second quarter, as well as an update on the RBA’s interest rates.


On the other hand, borrowers are expecting even lower interest rates following low inflation rates. Statistics New Zealand released a report last Monday showing that the Consumer Price Index went up by 0.4% as of June 30. The RBA is predicting that inflation rates would go up by 0.6%, and economists are now expecting the bank to cut down its cash rates by up to 2%.


Westpac has also stated that based on the market prices of financial products, there is now an 80% chance of the RBA cutting down the OCR by up to 70% prior to the release of rates.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: September 8, 2016


The USD continued to plummet against the JPY during Wednesday’s trading session, dropping by -0.55% or 0.564 points to trade at 101.445 points. This drop in rates was mostly caused by a negative-leaning US economic data, which reduced the probability of a Fed rate hike within the month, and protective sell stops are also being triggered by every new low encountered.


The Institute for Supply Management’s data release for the non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index also fell at 51.4 points last August, the largest drop seen for the data since November 2008, especially since traders and speculators were expecting 55.4 points. Traders are speculating that the fragile economic data can be used by Fed to refrain from increasing its interest rates.


The labor market conditions data from the Fed also plummeted in August at -0.7 points following a positive data surge in July. On the other hand, the JPY continues to rise following reports that BoJ policymakers had varying opinions prior to the bank’s meeting on September 20-21. The said meeting is expected to tackle the bank’s stimulus program and conduct a thorough assessment of the said program. Analysts are speculating that the BoJ’s move to review its stimulus program may be a sign that its policymakers are beginning to doubt the effectiveness of the nation’s economic stimulus program.


The US is also expected to release its most recent job openings report, with investors expecting data to come out at 5.58M, which is a bit lower from the previous data release of 5.62M. Meanwhile, the Fed is also expected to release its most recent Beige Book data. In addition, Esther George from FOMC will also be releasing a statement on Wednesday, which might have an impact on the market especially if there is a discontinuation of the expected interest rate hike in September.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for GBP/USD: September 9, 2016


The GBP/USD pair increased by 30 points to trade at 1.3370, hitting its highest trading point since the Brexit vote. The GBP was able to gain strength due to the weakening of the USD and strong economic data. The Bank of England previously underwent criticism from Brexit supporters after the central bank stated that the UK economy would soon face a massive slowdown and a recession after the Brexit vote. Post-Brexit data has shown that the UK economy did not wholly suffer the drastic post-Brexit changes that was initially forecasted by analysts and spectators. However, economists are still speculating that it will not be long before Britain goes into an economic slowdown.


The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney defended the bank’s moves against critics who were saying that the BoE has moved too rashly with regards to its handling of the Brexit shock, particularly in August where the bank cut down on its interest rates, eased lending policies, and expanded its bond-buying mechanisms. Carney has since then stated that the BoE has always expected that the main economic sectors would be able to recover from the referendum’s sudden impact in July, and this was shown in the recently published PMI data during the past few days.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: September 13, 2016

The USD/CAD increased by 28 points after a decrease in oil prices caused by a positive US production data and an easing in gold prices. The Canadian dollar is currently trading at 1.3077 points after an increase in international commodity prices, with the USD rallying on Friday after speculations that the Fed might consider an increase in its interest rates within the month.


The USD is increasing in relation to the CAD after a relatively positive US jobless claims data and negative Canadian building permits report data. According to the US Department of Labor, the jobless claims data up until September 3 decreased by 4,000, going down from 263,000 to 259,000. However, market analysts are still expecting the jobless claims data to go up by 2,000 within the week.


Canadian building permits data meanwhile went up by 0.8% in July, exceeding initial expectations for an increase of only 0.3%. The housing price index data also saw an improvement, rising to 0.4% from last month’s 0.1%, while the annual score also increased 2.5% to 2.8%. Investors are refraining from buying into the CAD due to the appeal of other riskier currencies.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for NZD/USD: September 14, 2016

The NZD/USD pair went lower during the last trading session, going down 12 points to trade at 0.7341 in the light of an impending interest rate increase by the Fed and confusions brought about by a decision from the Bank of Japan. On the other hand, China’s industrial production data went well above the expected range but did not seem to bring much support to the commodity currency. The Chinese industrial data increased by 6.3% in August as compared to last year, while retail sales data also exceeded expectations from market speculators.


Traders are now monitoring data from New Zealand, with the account balance due on Wednesday, economic data results scheduled to come out on Thursday, and the results of the consumer confidence survey set to be released on Friday. The NZD was also supported by an increase in food prices, which can cause inflation rates to ease a little bit. Bond prices from New Zealand also decreased, with yield points at 1.5 basis points, going higher towards the end of the yield curve.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: September 15, 2016


The EUR weakened while the GBP further increased, causing the EUR/GBP pair to trade at 8.499 points, going down at .0003 or -0.035%. The pair movement has caused a technical reversal top, which signals that investor sentiments are about to drop. Eurostat has also reported on Wednesday’s economic news that the industrial production data decreased by 1.1% in June, with a 0.8% increase in May.


On the other hand, the UK employment data is showing a resiliency in the UK jobs market, even after the Brexit vote. The Office of National Statistics has reported an increase in employment rates, going up by 174,000 to 31.77 million in just three months since July. These employment rates are the highest in 40 years, with the increase in the number going above the expected range by economists. The unemployment rates also remained at a stagnant range of 4.9% in July. Meanwhile, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits went up by 2,400 to 771,000 last August.


However, wage growth data also experienced a gradual slowdown, causing economists and speculators to have unsteady opinions with the set of data released. However, this strengthening of British employment and jobs data may cause the Bank of England to pay less attention to interest rates and maintain its current stimulus once the bank announces it decisions regarding monetary policies on Thursday.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: September 16, 2016


The USD/JPY pair dropped 14 points to trade at 102.29 points, well within its recent trading range of between 101.90 and 102.50. The strength of the USD was offset by an impending meeting of the Bank of Japan next week, as well as a renewed demand for the safe haven currency. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Japanese subzero-rates policy had a significant impact in putting downward pressure on interest rates.


There are also signs that the BoJ will be attempting to sharpen its yield curve by increasing long-term rates and suppressing short-term rates. The Bank of Japan has already purchased more short-term government bonds, shifted its bonds and is currently buying lesser bonds. The percentage of long-term bonds went up by half of a percentage since July. However, in spite of the steepening of the Japanese yield curve, the difference between 10-year bonds and 2-year bonds is still half of its value before the effect of negative rates.


Japanese government bonds had their worst selloff in 20 years, especially since the BoJ will be planning to implement adjustments on the maturity range, causing yields to rise on longer-duration bonds.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: September 20, 2016

The USD/JPY traded at 101.866, dropping by 0.390 points or -0.38% as traders and investors are preparing for the announcements of the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan regarding their respective monetary policies on Wednesday.

Although the Federal Reserve’s announcement on its interest rate policies will be announced in the same period as that of BoJ’s announcement, analysts are speculating that the BoJ’s announcement on its monetary policies will have a greater impact on the market’s volatility and movement than that of the Fed’s announcement. However, this announcement might give cues regarding an imminent interest rate hike in December, which can strengthen the USD and cause the JPY to lose some of its value.

The Bank of Japan is also expected to discuss an extensive review of its monetary policy framework, which includes a combination of its asset-buying program with its negative interest rates.

Speculators are having difficulties with regards to predicting the BoJ’s movement. Some speculators are saying that the Japanese central bank will be changing its mechanism in exchange of a policy which will be combining an increased stimulus while giving protection to banks which are struggling with dealing with the negative effects of interest rates on their respective deposits.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: September 21, 2016


The USD/JPY pair went down by 0.169 0r -0.17% to trade at 101.744 points. The US dollar is currently in a tight trading range against the JPY during the last trading session as various market players are waiting for the Bank of Japan’s announcement regarding its monetary policies, as well as the Federal Reserve’s announcement on Tuesday.


The USD/JPY slightly weakened after the release of the US housing data, which turned out to be a disappointment for traders and investors. The housing data came out at a yearly rate of 1.14 million units last August, going way below the expected range of 1.19 million units. Construction permits also dropped by 0.4% to go down at 1.14 million units in August.


Speculators are saying that the Bank of Japan would have to implement programs with significant monetary policy easing and interest rate cuts in order to further weaken the JPY in the long-term frame. The Federal Reserve must also release a hawkish statement which can indicate a possible rate hike in December. The USD/JPY is also expected to appreciate especially if the BoJ releases a more aggressive monetary strategy combined with an expected 12% interest rate raise by the Fed prior to the central bank’s announcement. However, if the Fed remains cautious on its policies and refuses to raise its rates, then the USD might weaken and the BoJ would be unable to decrease the value of the Japanese currency.