Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart (Fundamentals)

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: October 13, 2016

In the outset of the US session, the greenbacks heightened and together with the loonies attained the resistance region at 1.3280 despite of the news regarding the undermined the spot price of the oil. The USD CAD remained unaffected even though the FOMC minutes were not released yet. The pair attempted to make a breakthrough over the upper extreme of 1.3290 though it fall short once again and finally settled around 1.3282

Consolidation is still anticipated for a few more days since there is no driving force present that lead the currencies to the level of resistance.

When the fundamentals realized that the issue regarding petroleum prices negatively influence the economy of Canada then it would finally be visible. As a result, there is a possible price modification that would elevate to the 1.3280 resistance, at the same time obtaining the next spot at 1.35 and 1.4000.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 13, 2016

The pound and greens remain in an uncertain period, the price became affected due to the current events plus some fundamental determinants including the general strength performed by the USD and the risks associated with Brexit, these made the pair to cut loose its gains from the 1.2325 high to 1.2300 region. The subject matter have its way until the EU session which also added to the afflicted factors is the UK Parliament discussion regarding the Brexit activities. This occurrence decreased the pair into 1.2200. Following the statement from FOMC during the US conference because there are three protesters who insisted for a quick hyperinflation. This event is defined to be hawkish as per the market and this made the USD to gain more strength but the GBPUSD approached a lower position at 1.2100.

This morning a major news aided the pound and greens to immediately recuperate due to a weak trades from the Chinese investors, seeing the two to achieve 1.2188 region.

Mainly, GBP/USD is surrounded by news risks considering the fact that its has failing background which cause it to a complicated method in acquiring confident trades. As a result, it is recommended to steer clear of sterling and dollar until it obtain a well-established regions.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 14, 2016

The GBP/USD pair had a stagnant run during the last trading session after the sudden drop in its value last week. The pair had an average day-to-day range of a minimum of 200 pips. The currency pair is now consolidating between 1.2130 and 1.2550 points, with a possible break in the resistance level of 1.2550 opening the way for the pair to reach 1.2360, allowing the pair to have selling opportunities. The currency pair is now trading within the 1.2557 range and analysts are awaiting whether the pair would break through resistance or come down at the support level.

The GBP/USD continues to be affected by the Brexit, and analysts are speculating the pair will continue resonating its effects for another two years, or until such time that the UK finally completes the referendum.

Market players are now waiting for an announcement from the Bank of England’s Governor Carney, as well as a statement from the Federal Reserve’s Janet Yellen and the release of the retail sales data later today. Expect an increased volatility for the pair at the close of today’s trading session. Analysts are generally throwing caution to the wind with regards to transacting with this particular currency pair, especially due to the Brexit and the recent drop in the Chinese economy.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 14, 2016

The last trading session went bad for the EUR/USD pair due to the release of China’s trade data, which turned out to be extremely lower than expected, with the data showing that the nation’s exports were the most affected sector. The trade data has now led to investors becoming uncertain with regards to the state of the Chinese economy, especially since the Chinese market is one of the largest markets in the world and any movement would certainly affect all major economies. As a result, the Asian stock markets experienced a significant decrease, as well as the S&P500 for the region. Meanwhile, the USD increased its trading value, causing the EUR/USD to reach support levels at 1.1000 points.

The selling for the pair increased in activity which caused the pair to hit support at 1.1000, even going as far as 1.0985. However, the currency pair eventually recovered from the support level and went up to 1.1050 points, with the pair now at the 1.1054 trading range.

Market players are now expecting increased volatility with regards to this currency pair due to the Fed’s statement which is scheduled to be released within the day, as well as the retail sales data to be released from the US. The pair could possibly go into reversal but is expected to immediately get back to its previous trading range during the session.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 17, 2016


The GBP/USD pair continued to trade ambiguously after traders and investors expressed their uncertainties over the current state of the sterling pound, especially now that the UK’s strategies for Brexit have also become uncertain. The market has become dependent on the decision between the European Union and UK with regards on how to go about the Brexit, but so far this has not created enough stability for the market players.


The pricing of the GBP/USD pair remained highly volatile for the rest of last week’s session, with the pair having reactions to movements from both the European Union and Britain, creating difficulties for those wanting to choose a trade direction for the pair. In the coming weeks, a significant number of economic data is expected to be released which will greatly affect the movement of this particular currency pair. For this week, investors and traders are expecting the release of the US CPI data, as well as the US Presidential Debate. The UK retail sales data as well as the UK CPI data will also be released within the week. The recent data releases for the UK turned out well for the most part, but the uncertainties surrounding the Brexit will most likely affect the market.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: October 18, 2016

The USD decreased its value against the JPY during Monday’s trading session after the release of US economic data which turned out to be lower than expected, on top of investor reaction to comments from Fed Chairwoman Yellen last Friday. The Empire State manufacturing index was released last Monday, with the index dropping by -6.80 in October, faring worse than the previous data of -2.0 and falling below the expected +1.1 estimate.

Meanwhile, the data for Industrial Production also fell below its expected reading of 0.3% since the data came out at 0.1%, but was better than the September release of -0.5%. The Capacity Utilization Rate data came out at 75.4%, going a bit higher than the previous data release of 75.3% but still lower than the expected reading of 75.6%.The Federal Reserve’s Vice Chairman recently warned that low interest rates might increase the vulnerability of the economy due to impending recessions.

For the last trading session, the USD/JPY pair traded at 103.779 points, going down by -0.37% or 0.387 points. Market players initially reacted to Yellen’s statement the Fed might wait for inflation rates to go beyond its expected range before inducing an increase in interest rates.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: October 18, 2016

The CAD traded within its previous range after the USD and commodity prices had a slow start for the week. Fed representatives have kept traders and market players on their toes in light of the expected interest rate hike in December, but the US fundamental factors are shifting the focus on the release of the inflation data in the coming days.

The Canadian Foreign Security purchases data increased by 12.74 billion, with the input of foreign funds in the country marking the eighth consecutive month of positive net investments.

For the USD/CAD pair, the pair decreased by 0.08% during the last trading session, with the currency pair now trading at 1.3129 prior to the expected rate statement release from the Bank of Canada on Wednesday. The CAD decreased in value due to the decrease in crude oil prices last Monday, and the CAD will be dependent on the BoC’s rate statement on Wednesday, with the BoC expected to become more dovish in spite of little chances of an interest rate cut within the week, mostly due to the expected interest rate hike of the Federal Reserve later this year.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 19, 2016

The EUR/USD pair cannot seem to break through the 1.1030 range and move upwards above this particular range. This is because when the pair tries to move towards 1.1030, the pair has always experienced a lot of selling, causing the pair to be pushed back into the 1.0950-70 trading range.

This activity was also seen during the last trading session, after the EUR/USD pair again tried to go beyond the 1.1030 range but was immediately met with resistance due to the release of the US CPI data, which caused the euro to further drop in value and causing it to revert back to the 1.0960 region. The relatively solid support level of the pair has only caused a minor reversion for the pair after the EUR/USD bounced back to 1.1000 in spite of the significant weakening of the US dollar while traders are waiting for the release of China’s GDP data.

For today’s trading session, there is no major economic news to be expected from the eurozone today, although the US building permits data is set to be released within the day. Market players are not expecting any major movements following this release and bulls will be continuously concerned with the drop in the trading value of the EUR/USD. This is because the EUR will be suffering once the USD manages to bounce back from its weak state if the pair still does not manage to break through the 1.1030 while the USD has not yet regained its strength.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: October 20, 2016


The USD decreased in value in relation to the JPY during Wednesday’s trading session after the drop in US Treasury yields data, as well as speculations from market players that the Federal Reserve might not raise its interest rates before 2016 ends. The USD/JPY pair finished the last trading session at 103.440 points, dropping by -0.40% or 0.417 points.


The market is not expecting any major economic data release from Japan, however, the US housing data decreased by 9% in September, while housing permits increased by 6.3%. The Federal Reserve has also released its Beige Book during the last trading session, which outlines the economic conditions in the US. According to the book, the US economic environment increased by a modest percentage in most regions in the US.


Investors are now awaiting the results of the next US Presidential Debate, while reports from the European Central Bank with regards to their committee decisions on the eurozone’s monetary policy. This can have a significant impact on the market since this will become an indicator on whether traders should expect a risk-on trading session or a risk-off session.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: October 21, 2016

The USD/CAD pair exhibited extreme volatility during the last trading session which was mainly caused by a slew of Canadian news and events which were consecutively released during the session. First was the release of the CAD’s overnight rate which came out at the expected range of 0.5%. The Canadian monetary policy report also came out and came in short of the previous predictions by 1.1%. This caused the USD/CAD pair to break through the 1.3100 range and also attempted to move towards the 1.3000 region.

The data for the oil inventory reports was also released, as well as the Bank of Canada’s press conference details which showed a massive decrease in the overall inventory, triggering an increase in oil prices and increasing the value of the CAD.

Support levels for the USD/CAD pair is currently at 1.3060, 1.3000 and could possibly dip into 1.2930. Resistance levels for the currency pair is expected to be at 1.3120, which was already broken by the currency pair and could possibly go over the 1.3250 region since the pair is currently at the 1.3141 region. The market is not expecting any major economic news releases from US or Canada any time soon, and traders are still speculating that the effects from yesterday’s subsequent releases would still have an influence on the currency pair’s value.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: October 24, 2016


The USD/JPY pair reached a daily session high of 104.20 points before closing down the trading session at the 103.82 trading range, with daily lows for the pair recorded at 103.52 points. The USD/JPY received rejection at the 104.00 region during the Tokyo session and is currently at the 103.86 region.


The Japanese economic data for this year took on a generally disappointing note, with export data for the nation plummeting by 6.9%. Import data also dropped by 16.3% at the same period, with trade surpluses worth 498.3 billion yen. Chinese exports also decreased by up to 10.6%, causing the Bank of Japan to face renewed pressure with regards to lowering the value of the yen. However, analysts are saying that a Fed-induced drop in the yen might not resolve the issue of dropping Chinese exports since the yuan could decrease further as compared to the yen once the Fed decides to implement its long-awaited rate hike.


The economic calendar for today is primarily dominated by the Fed, with the possibility of an interest rate hike clocking in only at 70%. This possibility is not expected to increase any time soon due to the impending US national elections which overshadows hawkish sentiment from various policymakers. On the other hand, the yen might become more stable due to dovish statements and bearings.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 24, 2016

The EUR/USD pair closed down last week’s trading session at its lowest levels since March after the pair dipped significantly last Thursday due to a statement from the European Central Bank that it will be maintaining its current economic policies. However. ECB’s Mario Draghi will be maintaining its substantial accommodation until such time that inflation rates revert back to the 2% range which will stave off any major policy changes until December. Meanwhile, consumer confidence for the European Union increased by up to -8.2 from October’s -8.

In the coming sessions, market players are shifting their focus to the reading of the US preliminary Q3 GDP reading, with market players expecting a significant growth in the US economy. For the European Union, the market is currently awaiting the PMI data for the month of October, with data for manufacturing expected to increase significantly and services data regaining some of its stability after declining in September.

The EUR/USD pair has already reached a critical trading range, especially since the pair has been unable to get out of the 1.0840 -1.1460 region. However, the impending imbalance brought about by the ECB and the Federal Reserve could possibly cause the pair to break through this particular range. But for now, the currency pair is expected to drop further into the 1.0505 range, and further drops in value are expected for the coming trading sessions.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: October 25, 2016

The USD increased in relation to the JPY amid the impending interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December, along with a heightened demand for assets with higher yields. For the last trading session, the USD/JPY pair closed down at 104.175 points after increasing by up to 0.35% or 0.365 points.

The MarketWatch program of the CME Group reported that market traders are expecting a 70% probability that the Fed will be pushing through with its interest rate hike in December. Positive economic data from the previous session caused a reaction from dollar traders with bullish stances while simultaneously reacting to hawkish comments from the FOMC. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard also commented on Monday that the market would only need a one-time interest rate hike to sustain the economy.

The USD/JPY pair further surged during Monday’s session after a significant increase in the US equity markets caused an increase in demand for high-yield assets. However, this has caused the Japanese yen to decrease in value. The market is not expecting any major economic data from Japan in today’s trading session, and the main determinant of the direction of the currency pair will be the US equity market movement. The USD/JPY is expected to receive more stable support from an increased demand for stocks.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: October 27, 2016

The USD decreased its value in relation to the JPY during Wednesday’s session after yen traders resorted to safety buying as a reaction to the drop in US equity markets. The trading session closed down with the USD reverting back to its previous value against the JPY. The USD/JPY is currently at 104.468, increasing by up to +0.25% or 0.260 points.

Analysts are stating that the USD dropped further due to concerns regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and uncertainties regarding the impending US presidential elections. However, the rallying of the USD is an indicator that there is an increased possibility for a Fed rate hike in December, and risks are possibly leaning on the downside territory. This will then add more focus to the release of the Durable Goods report on Thursday and Advance GDP data which will be released this coming Friday.

Thursday’s trading session is expected to have more double-sided trades since traders are monitoring the general direction of the US Treasury yields, as well as high-risk assets demand. Traders should also consider monitoring the stock market, since the JPY is expected to increase if support levels for the US equity markets starts decreasing.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: October 27, 2016


The CAD experienced substantial deprecation during Wednesday’s session in spite of a disappointing US crude inventories data. US oil stocks decreased by up to 600,000 bpm last week, going even lower than the expected increase of up to 700,000 bpm. This decrease in oil prices caused a decreasing trend in the Tokyo session after the data for the API inventory exhibited an increase by up to 4.8 million barrels, but crude prices were able to revert immediately after the US Energy Information Administration released its reports. However, these gains were again revoked after traders expressed concerns regarding the OPEC deal.


The USD/CAD pair experienced a significant increase by up to 0.213% during the past session, with the pair now trading at 1.3664 points after the CAD decreased in relation to the USD due to a drop in energy prices. For the rest of this week, CAD traders are expecting the release of the US durable goods data this Thursday. However, the main focus for this week is the flash GDP for the US. The overall growth for the US is showing an increased momentum, and this is expected to cause the USD to significantly increase since this will further cement the possibility of a Fed rate hike in December. However, a further lack of activity from the Federal Reserve might prompt the Bank of Canada to intervene on behalf of the central bank’s monetary policy.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 02, 2016

The JPY inched higher against the USD during Tuesday’s trading session as a result of safety buying from market players. This flight to safety was caused by a sharp sell-off in the US equity market after equities dropped due to investor reactions to the FBI’s probe of Democratic Party presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, as well as the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve which had a significant impact on the foreign exchange market.

Profits lagged behind on Tuesday after investors shifted their focus on the upcoming elections, as well as decisions from the Fed, especially since there are concerns from the market that a Trump victory could lead to a Brexit-like situation in the US. The US Final Manufacturing PMI data came out at 53.4 points, going slightly above the expected data of 53.3 points. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing PMI was released at 51.9 points. Construction spending data dropped by up to 0.4%, falling short of traders’ expectations of 0.5%.

The Bank of Japan voted last Tuesday to maintain its current interest rate as well as its target for its 10-year government bond yields at -0.1% and 0%. The BoJ also cautioned market players that inflation risks and growth risks are currently on the negative territory.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

AUD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 4, 2016


The AUD/JPY was able to remain in the positive side of the chart as the USD incurred more losses against the JPY and increased pressure on the cross currency pair. The AUD/JPY pair hit session highs at 79.42 points but eventually reverted back to its previous range of 79.10 points.


While the AUD/JPY lost some of its previous gains, the AUD/USD pair increased further and was able to reach its highest range in November after the Australian retail sales data showed a 0.6% increase as compared to September’s data of 0.4%. However, the increase in this currency pair was not enough to outweigh the decrease in the value of USD/JPY.


If the AUD/JPY manages to go over 79.42 could possible lead to a strong resistance level at the 80.00 trading range. If the pair closes the trading session over the zero figure then this could induce more bulls and could possibly cause the pair to go further at 81.52 points. The pair’s support levels is expected to be at 79.00 and could cause a sell-off at the 78.48 and 78.00

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 7, 2016


The EUR/USD is expected to incur significant gains due to risks that Donald Trump could possibly win the upcoming presidential elections, something that the international market did not anticipate. However, some market players are also saying that the USD would be able to regain some of its strength over a few days and a relief rally would occur should Clinton come out as the winning candidate in the elections. Prior to the opening of the Monday session, Clinton was already cleared by the FBI with regards to her e-mails and this is expected to be good for her campaign and has already caused some currency pairs to open up certain gaps.


The EUR/USD pair has already dropped by up to 70 pips and this is just a sneak peek of what could possibly happen if ever Clinton wins the presidential elections, especially since the market is now anticipating a Clinton victory with Trump’s chances becoming invariably slim.


Market players are expecting that this particular gap in the currency pair will be temporarily covered, while the USD is set to regain some of its lost value during the next trading sessions, especially with the impending presidential elections.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 7, 2016

The USD is expected to increase significantly against the yen during Monday’s trading session as a result of investor reaction to reports that the FBI will be dropping its investigation of US Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s e-mails and will not be filing any charges against the Democratic candidate.

This then means that the Monday session is most likely to be a risky day as investors are expected to go on an aggressive USD and stock-buying spree especially after last week’s sell-offs. Investors are also expected to sell their safe haven assets which were bought as hedge against the probability of a Trump victory, which includes the JPY, EUR, and gold stocks. The USD/JPY dropped to its support region located at the 102.799-102.155 range, going down at 102.533. The pair is expected to rally back to at least 104.03 to 104. 383 if the short-term rally for today’s session proves to be strong enough for the currency pair.

Market players are expected to mainly focus on the upcoming elections even with new economic events taking place, after which, the market is expected to shift its focus on the expected Fed rate hike this coming December. These events are expected to induce an upward shift in the value of the US dollar. The Bank of Japan is expected to release the minutes of its latest Monetary Policy Meeting, while the Average Cash Earnings is expected to be released at 0.2%. Minor reports from the US to be released this Monday are the Loan Officer Survey, Labor Market Conditions, 10-Year Bond Auctions and Consumer Credit data.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 7, 2016


The stronger U.S. dollar overpowers Australian dollar. Last week, the greenback declined as the polls showed a lead of the Republican candidate Donald Trump against the Democratic candidate Hilary Clinton. Now, it has been reversed. Greenback is anticipated to rise up again as the news regarding Hilary Clinton’s issue with the private email server, while she was still in the position as the secretary of the state, has been cleared. This sudden boost in prices is a great opportunity especially for audacious investors and gain profit to low prices and buy stocks to avail funds. Investors are expected to hedge funds to narrow risks in this situation.


Aussie is considerably a risky asset hence, a bullish trend may not create a big change in the Australian dollar. Yet, the next move of this pair cannot be clearly known compared to other major currency such as Yen and dollar. Traders have to be careful on their next move and there are other pairs that are more stable.


The main concern in U.S. is the presidential election while the price activity of Aussie depends on the AIG Construction Index and the ANZ Job Advertisements report. There are other minor news in Australia namely: the Labor Market Conditions Index, Loan Officer Survey and Consumer Credit. However, these are expected not to have a major influence in trading.


Aussie is in a neutral state today and investors should be mindful that the price activity may change drastically as it might go a sudden dive in response with the news. As the U.S. presidential election gets near, the financial market is still shaky with investors being unsure to take a position prior to the election.