Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

IBEX Elliott Wave sequence from 12.28.2018 low remains bullish, favoring further upside. Near term, the rally from Feb 11, 2019 low (8834.3) is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. The first leg of this zigzag wave A ended at 9361.4 as a 5 waves impulse structure. Wave B pullback ended at 9106.97 as a Flat Elliott Wave structure. Down from 9361.4, wave ((a)) ended at 9204.4, wave ((b)) ended at 9366.2, and wave ((c)) of B ended at 9106.97.

The index has resumed wave C rally higher and broken above previous peak on 9366.2. The internal of wave C is also unfolding as a 5 waves impulse where wave ((i)) is proposed complete at 9418.8. If Index breaks above 9418.8, that suggests wave ((i)) remains in progress but doesn't change the overall outlook. Near term, while wave ((ii)) pullback stays above 9106.97, expect Index to extend higher. We don't like selling the Index and expect buyers to appear in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 9106.97 stays intact. Potential target to the upside comes at 9652 - 9771 area where wave C is equal to wave A in length.

1 Hour IBEX Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this blog, we will take a look at the price action and Elliott wave structure of Crude Oil since December 24, 2018 low. Understanding the structure of initial rally up from December 24, 2018 low reveals that Oil is taking the form of a zigzag Elliott Wave structure and also highlights the ideal target zone for the current rally to end.

Initial rally from December 24, 2018 (42.36) to January 21, 2019 (54.24) unfolded as a regular Impulse wave when wave (1) ended at 47.00, wave (2) ended at 44.35, wave (3) ended at 53.31, wave (4) ended at 50.38 and wave (5) ended at 54.24. We have labelled this as wave ((A)). This was followed by an irregular correction to complete wave ((B)) at 51.23 after which Oil rallied again in 5 waves to 57.81, break above 54.24 confirmed wave ((B)) completed at 51.23 and wave ((C)) higher is in progress to complete a Zigzag Elliott Wave Structure. Within wave ((C)) rally to 58.95 completed wave 1 of (3) and wave 2 of (3) is also proposed to be over at 57.74. As dips hold above this level, expect Oil to continue higher in wave ((C)) towards 63.05 - 65.88 area and in extension 70.45 to complete a Zigzag Elliott wave structure up from December 24, 2018 low.

If 57.74 low breaks, that could mean wave 2 of (3) has unfolded as an irregular correction and thus, as far as price stays above the up trend line (currently at 55.50) and more importantly as far as it stays above 54.52 low, expect Oil to continue higher towards 63.05 - 65.88 area. Only a break of the distribution pivot at 51.23 low would suggest cycle from December 24,2018 low ended already without reaching the ideal extension target at 63.05. If price breaks above 70.45, then wave ((C)) would become wave ((3)) and rally from December 24,2018 low could then be viewed as an incomplete Impulse structure.



Crude Oil Chart showing structure of rally from December 24,2018 low

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of DAX, published in members area of the website. As our members know, the Index has incomplete bullish sequence in the cycle from December's low. The Elliott wave structure has been calling for further strength. Consequently, we advised members to avoid selling DAX and keep buying the dips in the sequences of 3,7,or 11 swings whenever opportunity presented itself. In further text we’re going to explain Elliott wave structure and trading setup.

DAX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 3.7.2019
As we can see on the chart below, DAX is doing wave (B) Blue pull back, that is unfolding as WXY Double Three Elliott Wave pattern. The Index is bullish against the 10865.3 low and we favor the long side. Short term pull back looks incomplete. It's showing 5 swings, suggesting another swing down toward 11444.85-11341.6 area , where we like to be buyers for proposed rally or 3 wave bounce alternatively. Although we expect to see another leg down , we advise members to avoid selling against the main bullish trend. Strategy is waiting for mentioned area 11444.85-11341.6 to be reached, before entering long positions. As our members know, Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a bounce. The main trend is bullish and we expect to see reaction in 3 waves up from the blue box at least. As soon as the bounce reaches 50 fibs against the X red high, we will make long positions risk free and let the profit run.



DAX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 3.18.2019
Buyers appeared right at the blue box when Elliott Wave Double Three completed at 11407.3 low. We got expected rally and as a result members are now enjoying profits in risk free positions.Recently we got a new short term high with a break above 03/01 peak, confirming next leg up is in progress. At this stage DAX is bullish against the 11407.3 pivot, suggesting more strength potentially. Now as far as 11407.3 pivot holds, intraday pull backs can find buyers in 3,7,11 swings for proposed rally or 3 wave bounce at least.

Keep in mind that market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) which is a multinational semiconductor company. Is following the overall structure of other World Indices. The stock is trading within a corrective sequence within the Grand Supercycle degree. From its all-time low, it rallied and made a major peak early 2000. Which can be also seen in many World Indices. After that, it has been sideways to lower and ended the 3 waves decline in 2015.

The chart below is representing our view in AMD based on the Elliott wave Theory. We believe that the stock is doing an Eliott Wave Double Three structure within the Grand Supercycle. At this moment, we should be in the 6th swing after that it should resume higher in the 7th swing ideally. Therefore, it can be bought in 3-7-11 swings for more upside as a long-time investment into the Grand Supercycle. The target should be at around $50.12 area.



AMD 03.19.2019 Quarterly Elliott Wave Analysis




In the weekly chart below you can see that AMD reached the 61.8% area within the Grand Supercycle and peaked at around $34.00 level. Which came within our Blue Box area. That blue box is a very technical area. Where a pullback was expected to take place. Below from 34.00 it did already a 3 waves pullback. But it did a marginal new low at around $16. Which is why the stock can still be doing a connector in ((X)). Before more downside in wave ((Y)) of red X should be seen. Therefore, we do not recommend selling AMD. Rather we recommend buying the dips in AMD in the sequences of 3-7- or 11 swings into the Grand Supercycle target. As the right side is to the upside which you can see below.



AMD 03.19.2019 Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis




As we have explained above. The Stock is following the main cycles of the World Indices. Now let's take a step further and compare it to the $UKX-FTSE monthly chart. As you can see below it is easy to identify the map and the right side based on the FTSE. As the Index has an incomplete sequence to the upside. Which is confirming more upside.

The following charts are highlighting their sequences. We want to explain that the numbers in the charts are not Elliott Wave counts! They are called swing sequences and those are a part of the Market Nature. As we can see both Grand Supercycles are incomplete, and both need ideally another multi-year cycle higher. However, the $UKX-FTSE is confirming the need of another swing higher in Blue into the 10313 area. Which should come at the same time when AMD reach the $50.12 target. So as you can see it is very technical and due to the right side system, it defines the main trend better and easier which results in a possible long term buying opportunity.



FTSE vs AMD Monthly Sequences Analysis




We at Elliottwave-Forecast, have learned to read the Market as a whole and consequently, we are able to provide members with the sequences and Right Side which results in very profitable trading investment ideas, as we always said, knowing The Right Side and knowing when to enter and exit in each time frame is key to success.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Since forming the low on Oct 26, 2018 low, Nifty has rallied higher and now is challenging the 2018 high (11760.20). A break above 2018 high will signal that the Index has ended the entire correction from 2018 high. A break above 11760.20 will also rule out the possibility of a double correction in Nifty. Our current view anticipates this breakout, but the actual break is going to validate the view and opens further upside.

The rally from Oct 26, 2018 low is proposed to be unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Wave (2) of this impulse ended at 10586.53. Wave (3) rally is currently in progress with subdivision as an impulse. Up from 10586.53, wave 1 ended at 10887.1 and wave 2 ended at 10729.30. Near term, dip is expected to find buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside within wave (3). As far as pivot at 10586.53 low stays intact, expect Index to extend higher.

For completeness, we also present an alternative view. In the alternate view, the rally from Oct 26, 2018 low takes the form of a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. In this case, Nifty should end the current 5 waves up from 10586.53 as wave (C). Afterwards, the Index will turn lower aggressively without breaking above 2018 high (10729.3).

1 Hour Nifty Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

After repeated rebuke by President Trump, the Fed has completely capitulated. Following the two-day meeting, the Fed has scaled back their projected interest rates rise to zero this year. This reflects the concern about slowing economic growth, global market uncertainty, financial market volatility, and muted inflation.

Powell: Brexit and US-China trade talks pose some risks to outlook from CNBC.

Contrast the Fed's statement to three months ago when the Fed signaled several rate hikes this year. In addition, the Fed will slow down the rate of balance sheet normalization in May and end the drawdown in September. This is also a remarkable U-turn from the guidance last December. Last year, it suggested an autopilot approach with no change in pace of the balance sheet reduction.

Going into the meeting, the market generally expect the Fed to at least hike one more time this year and maintain the balance sheet reduction until the end of the year. From this perspective, the Fed has exceeded even the most dovish market expectation. The Fed now expects a 2.1% growth this year, down from 2.3% forecast last December. The outlook for 2020 is even more bleak with only 1.9% growth.

The Dot Plot comparison below shows the abrupt swing in the projection of interest rates in the coming years.



The minute the statement comes out, the US Dollar sold off aggressively.

USD Index 1 minute Chart


Similarly, the EURUSD also failed to have a follow through to the downside after ECB's dovish message two weeks ago. Recall two weeks ago ECB's President Mario Draghi introduced new easing measures called LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operation). In fact, EURUSD has completely reversed all the losses as the chart below shows:

EURUSD Weekly Chart


In fact, looking at the charts of multiple USD pairs, we believe that US Dollar should continue to see further weakness. One of the clearest structures can be seen in $USDINR (Indian Rupee). Below is the daily chart showing incomplete sequence from October 2018 high, favoring more downside.

USDINR Daily Elliott Wave Chart


From the chart above, $USDINR should continue to see more downside while rally fails below wave X high at 71.8. The minimum target is 67 approximately when wave Y is equal in length to wave W. With the complete reversal of the Fed's guidance and without further rate hike, US Dollar can continue to see further weakness in coming days / weeks.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

XLK Pattern Suggests New Highs on the Horizon
After a 24.5%, 7-wave, decline from the $76.27 peak of 10/3/2018, XLK appears to be showing signs of a bottom. This technology ETF, XLK, is now showing a clear 5 wave impulse from the 12/24/2018 lows which we are labeling as Super Cycle degree wave (IV). The clearest evidence we see is blatant separation evident in its labeled wave ((3)). Also of note is the ETF breaking above all prior highs printed on its decline. These include the 10/16/2018 high at $72, the 11/8/2018 high at $71.16, and the 12/3/2018 pivot high at $69.71.

As of this publication the ETF is printing $73.45. We are well within the throws of its fifth wave off the December low. Consequently, as Elliott wave practitioners, we know this fifth wave completes the larger fractal wave I. Afterwards a 3 wave retracement against the December lows will take place. It is after this 3 wave projected event that the largest and most powerful sequence will emerge as wave III.

It is this next extension projection that will take XLK to new highs above $76.27. Once we have the wave II bottom in place we will be able to measure the next target for wave III. Moreover this target often relates to a Fibonacci extension of 1.618 times the length of wave I from the bottom of wave II. Hence, we need more data.

Have no idea about or new to the Elliott wave? Does the chart below look like a foreign language? Everyday in our Group 3 Services we measure, map, and monitor XLK and 25 other instruments. Just like the chart below Come join us and see what we do that sets us apart from every other Elliottician. And, learn what we do. We're offering a Free Trial for new subscribers to test drive our process. After more than a decade of serving the individual trader we know you'll find our outlook invaluable to helping you become more successful.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

American Airlines Group inc ticker symbol: AAL is an American airline holding company stationed in Forth worth Texas formed in December 2013. Since the IPO low from December 2013, the stock rallied in 3 waves corrective sequence i.e as double three structure & ended the Grand Super Cycle wave ((w)) at 1/16/2018 peak ( $59.08). Down from there, the stock is doing a bigger 3 wave pullback to correct the Grand Super Degree cycle in wave ((x)) as zigzag structure.

According to Elliott wave theory, Zigzag is a 3 wave structure having an internal subdivision of (5-3-5) swing sequence. The internal oscillations are labeled as A, B, C where A = 5 waves, B = 3 waves and C = 5 waves. This means that A and C can be impulsive or diagonal waves. The A and C waves must meet all the conditions of wave structure 5, such as: having an RSI divergence between wave subdivisions, ideal Fibonacci extensions, ideal retracements etc.

AAL Weekly Elliott Wave Chart


The pullback from 1/16/2018 peak ( $59.08) is taking a form of Elliott Wave zigzag structure. Where Super Cycle degree wave (a) ended at $35.64 low. Wave (b) bounce ended at $43.88 high. And wave (c) remain in progress towards $20.44-$14.93 100%-123.6% Fibonacci extension area of (a)-(b) blue box extreme area. Before it ends the cycle from 1/16/2018 peak in Grand Super Cycle degree wave ((x)) pullback. Then, the stock is expected to resume the upside or should produce a bigger 3 wave bounce at least.

AAL Daily Elliott Wave Chart


AAL in Daily cycle, Near-term bounces are expected to fail below 43.91 high for a move towards $20.44-$14.93 100%-123.6% Fibonacci extension area to happen.

Keep in mind that the market is dynamic and the view could change in the meantime. Success in trading requires proper risk and money management as well as an understanding of Elliott Wave theory, cycle analysis, and correlation. We have developed a very good trading strategy that defines the entry. Stop loss and take profit levels with high accuracy and allows you to take a risk-free position, shortly after taking it by protecting your wallet.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Back in September 2018, we highlighted that USDMXN Elliott wave analysis suggested bounces should fail below 6.15.2018 peak for extension lower. The bounce did fail below 6.15.2018 peak as pair formed a secondary peak on 12.6.2018 and turned lower. Cycle from 12.6.2018 peak ended on 1.17.2019 and pair bounced to correct the decline from 12.6.2018 peak. This corrective bounce ended on 3.7.2019 and this week USDMXN managed to break below 1.17.2019 peak which has created a bearish sequence down from 12.6.2018 peak. In this video blog, we will take a look at the downside targets to complete cycles from 6.15.2018 peak and 12.6.2018 peaks. We will also look at how this impacts USDPLN wave structure and path going forward.

USDMXN Bearish Sequence and Cycle from 12.6.2018
Chart below shows the incomplete sequence created as a result of break below 1.17.2019 peak. Now, as bounces fail below 3.7.2019 peak, the pair should continue lower towards 18.0799 - 17.4689 area. 18.0799 is the 100% Fibonacci extension of 6.15.2018 - 6.8.2018 cycle related to 12.6.2018. Whereas, 17.8378 is the 100% Fibonacci extension of 12.6.2018 - 1.17.2019 cycle related to 3.7.2019. Due to incomplete sequence down from 12.6.2018 peak, any bounces should find sellers in the sequence of 3, 7 or 11 swings as far as 3.7.2019 high remains in place.

If the downtrend line from 12.6.2018 through 3.7.2019 breaks and more importantly the pivot at 3.7.2019 high gives up in the distribution system, then pair could rally above 3.7.2019 to complete a FLAT correction from 1.17.2019 low and then continue lower towards 18.0799 area. (path shown with blue lines on the chart)





USDPLN Could Stays Sideways to Lower and Rally When USDMXN Reaches Blue Box
USDPLN continues to show an incomplete bullish sequence up from 1.25.2018 low and has an extra swing. However, the pivot at 1.31.2019 low has given up and USDMXN is showing a bearish sequence against 3.7.2019 peak which suggests USDPLN could also bounce and make another low to complete 5 swings down from red B wave high and complete a possible Elliott Wave FLAT structure down from blue wave (1) peak and resume the rally. Ideal time for rally to resume would be when USDMXN reaches blue box shown in the chart above, until then USDPLN and DXY could stay sideways or extend lower.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

AUDJPY Short Term Technical Analysis

AUDJPY on March 8/2019 the pair bounced and traded higher. Price started a Higher High/Higher Low sequence and trended higher for the entire trading week of March 11-15/2019. In the chart below the ADX (Average Directional Movement Index) signalled that the move to the upside was losing momentum at the start of the new trading week of March 18/2019. AUDJPY traded lower from the March 18/2019 highs and broke below the previous HL (Higher Low) which signalled the Higher High/Higher Low sequence paused or has possibly stopped. From March 18/2019 price traded sideways in a range until March 21/2019 when a new Lower Low/Lower High sequence started. Traders at this time now needed to expect a possible reversal lower after the pair started to make Lower Lows and Lower Highs. The ADX line finally broke above the 30 level together with price breaking lower out of the range and breaking below another Higher Low level which signalled the trend reversal lower was confirmed.

AUDJPY 1 Hour Chart March 22/2019



The ADX should never be used alone for trade entries but instead be used together with other trading strategies/techniques to get a better view of the market price action at that moment. Using the ADX indicator together with Momentum Price Breakouts can give traders opportunities to enter the market. The AUDJPY chart below shows multiple SELL breakout trade setups to catch the move lower. All SELL entries hit their projected targets. NOTE* Price must respect Moving Average before BUY/SELL breakout entries

AUDJPY 1 Hour Chart March 22/2019



Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

ZN_F has rallied throughout March so in this blog, we will take a look at the Technical outlook for ZN_F (US 10 Year Note Futures), present Elliott wave count and also correlate it with USDJPY and $SPX to explain to readers and viewers how it could impact the Yen and $SPX.

ZN_F Elliott Wave Analysis since 10.2018 low
Rally from October 2018 low is proposed to be taking the form of a Zigzag Elliott Wave Structure when rally to 119'6 completed wave (1), dip to 117'22 completed wave (2), rally to 121'20 completed wave (3), pull back to 120'28 completed wave (4) and move to 123'08 completed wave (5) of wave ((A)) impulse. This was followed by a 3 waves pull back to 121'02 which completed wave ((B)) and we have already seen a new high above 123'08 which suggests wave ((C)) higher is in progress, it has a measured move target of 126'27 - 128'07 and in extension 130'14. Pull backs should remain supported and find buyers in the sequence of 3, 7 or 11 swings as far as pivot at 121'15 i.e. wave (2) of ((C)) low remains intact. While below 130'14, it's a 3 waves move. However, a break above 130'14 would suggest rally from 121'02 is actually wave ((3)) and not wave ((C)) and would result in more upward extension.



ZN_F Elliott Wave Analysis - Alternate View
This view suggests rally from October 2018 low would unfold as a double three Elliott Wave structure rather than a zigzag but would have the same end result and same measured move target area as far as January 18, 2019 low remains in place. This would allow for a deeper pull back from the first blue box area i.e. 124'20 - 125'15 before rally continues. Wave (B) should offer a buying opportunity in the sequence of 3, 7 or 11 swings if this view plays out.



ZN_F Correlation with USDJPY and SPX
Correlation suggests that until ZN_F doesn't reach 126'27 - 128'07, USDJPY and SPX should either drop or remain sideways - lower. Another high in SPX can't be ruled out during a pull back of ZN_F but any strength from current levels should be limited and we should soon see a roll over in SPX and other Indices as well.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Elliott Wave view is calling an end to Nikkei's rally from December 26, 2018 low with wave X at 21884. The Index should resume the move lower and should eventually break below wave December 26, 2018 low. Or at minimum, the Index should do a larger 3 waves pullback to correct the cycle from 19055 low. Down from wave X at 21884, the decline is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where wave ((a)) ended at 20680. Internal of wave ((a)) subdivides as a 5 waves impulse.

Wave ((b)) bounce is currently in progress as a Flat Elliott Wave structure. Up from 20680, wave (a) ended at 21520 and wave (b) ended at 20705. Internal of wave (a) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from 21520 low, wave w ended at 21410, wave x ended at 21015, and wave y of (a) ended at 21520. Internal of wave (b) ended as a zigzag at 20705. Wave a of (b) ended at 21160, wave b of (b) ended at 21505, and wave c of (b) ended at 20705. Wave (c) of ((b)) is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. The rally should fail below March 4 high at 21884 for further downside. We don't like buying the Index and expect rally to fail for further downside as far as pivot at 21884 high stays intact.

1 Hour Nikkei Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello fellow traders. Today, I want to share some Elliott Wave charts of Nasdaq Futures (NQ_F) which we presented to our members in the past. Below, you see the 1-hour updated chart presented to our clients on the 03/08/19. showing that the Index has a 1 Hour right side tag against 6960.56 low.

In the 1H chart we suggest our members that it has ended black wave ((3)) at 7213.50 peak. And below from there, we advised members that it should see the equal legs from that peak towards the areas of the 100 - 1.618 Fibonacci extension of blue wave (A)-(B) which came around 7045.00-6960.05 and unfolded as an Elliott Wave Zig Zag structure. Therefore, we expected buyers to appear in the sequences of 3, 7 or 11 swings. Due to the right side tag which you can see in the chart below, we recommended a long position at the blue box area. As that was the first area for buyers to appear to take prices to new high above black wave ((3)) peak. Or a larger 3 waves reaction at least.

NASDAQ (NQ_F) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 03/08/2019




In the last Elliott Wave chart, you can see that Nasdaq reached the blue box area and extend an into the blue box buying area and was close to get stopped out. The stop should be ideally a few points below the 1.618. However, then it showed a nice reaction higher. Due to the right side tag. We advised members that it should ideally hold the low and extend higher. And if traded our blue box. Any trades from that area have been risk-free, which means the stop-loss was moved to break-even, and also hit higher targets. Overall a very profitable trade. Do please keep in mind that the 1-hour chart which I presented have changed already. The blue boxes you see in our charts are our so-called High-Frequency boxes. Where the market ideally shows us a reaction either lower or higher to allow us to move our stop loss quickly to break-even.



NASDAQ (NQ_F) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 03/13/2019



I hope you enjoyed this blog. I wish you all good trades.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Cronos Group (NASDAQ: CRON) is an innovative global cannabis company based in Canada. It's one of the largest medical marijuana producer around the world and it was the first cannabis company to be listed on the Nasdaq stock market last year.

Today, the company announced its fourth-quarter and full-year 2018 financial results before the market opens. It posted gross profit before fair value adjustments of CA$2.5 million which is up 449% year over year. However, the company announced a fourth-quarter loss of CA$11.8 million compared to a profit of CA$667,000 in the prior-year period.

The stock is down 2.75% for the day and could be still looking for further losses in the coming days. Is this a start of a larger correction or the bullish cycle will remain intact ?

To understand the current situation we need to take a look at the technical chart of CRON with the help of the Elliott Wave Theory:

CRON Daily Elliott Wave Chart


Since IPO, CRON is proposed to be advancing in an impulsive waves as the stock keeps making higher highs and lower lows with enough separation. At current stage, it ended the red wave III cycle from October 2018 low and therefore a correction is taking place in a 3 waves Zigzag structure.

The correction in wave IV can reach the extreme blue box area at $17.9 - $16.4 from where the stock will be able to rally again to new all time highs or bounce in 3 waves at least. However to be able to rally higher, CRON shouldn't do an overlap with September 2018 peak at $15.2 which would invalidate the impulsive structure.

Consequently, the bullish trend looks to be intact at this stage and the pullback would represent another buying opportunity for investors to continue riding the Long side.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Short term Elliott Wave view on Ten Year Treasury Notes (ZN_F) suggests that the rally from January 18, 2019 low (121.02) is unfolding as an Impulse Elliott Wave structure. The Notes is currently within wave (3) of this impulsive move. The internal of wave (3) subdivides in 5 waves of lesser degree. Wave 1 of (3) ended at 122.3 and wave 2 of (3) ended at 122.12. Wave 3 of (3) is currently in progress and also subdivides in 5 waves of lesser degree. This illustrates the fractal nature of the market. Fractals suggest that each wave consists of smaller wave patterns and the pattern repeats itself in different degrees.

Up from wave 2 at 122.12, wave ((i)) ended at 122.31 and wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 122.18. The Notes rallied again in wave ((iii)) which ended at 124.21, and wave ((iv)) pullback appears completed at 124.02. Near term, expect the Notes to continue in wave ((v)) and extend higher to above 124.21. If the Notes breaks below the proposed wave ((iv)) low at 124.02, this suggests a double correction. However, even in the case of a double correction, as far as the Notes stay above 122.12, expect more upside. We don't like selling the Notes.

1 Hour ZN_F Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Nasdaq (NQ_F) is showing a preliminary sign that the cycle from December 26, 2018 low has ended. After forming the high at 7544.68 on March 22, 2019, the Index has started to turn lower. The first leg of the decline looks impulsive and ended wave (A) at 7290. Then after a bounce in wave (B) to 7447.50, the Index has turned lower and broken below wave (A) again, suggesting further extension lower is likely. If the Index really ended cycle from Dec 26, 2018 low, this means at minimum it should do a larger pullback in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct that cycle.

The entire rally from Dec 26, 2018 low ended at 7544.68. Down from there, the first leg of the decline ended wave (A) at 7290. Internal of wave (A) is unfolding as an Impulse Elliott Wave structure. Wave 1 of (A) ended at 7514.5 and wave 2 of (A) ended at 7538.50. Wave 3 of (A) shows an extension and ended at 7294.75, wave 4 of (A) ended at 7325.50, and wave 5 of (A) ended at 7290. Index then bounced within wave (B) as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Wave A of (B) ended at 7371.50, wave B of (B) ended at 7293.50, and wave C of (B) ended at 7447.50. Wave (C) lower looks to have started as the Index already broke below wave (A) at 7290.

We are counting the wave (C) as an impulse with a nest. As far as the bounce stays below 7544.68, expect the Index to extend lower.

1 Hour Nasdaq (NQ_F) Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In the last FOMC meeting, the Fed turned cautious and said they will not raise benchmark interest rate this year. In addition, balance sheet normalization will also end in September from an "auto-pilot" approach. Normally the market cheers when the Fed is taking a dovish stance as this signals a loose monetary policy. However, it does not appear to be the case this time as the market is genuinely concerned about a global downturn. Euro Zone's Flash service PMI last week missed the expectation by a significant margin, signalling a weakening economy.

Then last Friday the yield on US 10 year Treasury note dipped below the yield of 3-month paper. This is what's commonly called yield curve inversion, and this happens for the first time since mid 2007. The Fed considers this as one of the most reliable recession indicators in the market. The chart below supports this view point:



Since post Bretton Woods era, the 3 month - 10 year yield inversion always follows a recession without any false negative. It's also important to consider that the monetary tightening by the Fed last year with multiple rate hikes and balance sheet reduction has 12 - 18 months lag effect. This means the full effect of the monetary tightening most likely will appear at the second half of this year. Markets came under pressure last week as S&P 500 closed -1.9% last Friday. Stronger Yen also sent Nikkei -3% lower on Monday.

This week market has somewhat recovered but if the fear of recession continues to materialize, it may provide a ceiling to the market's rally.

DAX Weekly Chart


Analysis of the DAX weekly chart above shows that the Index broke below the ascending channel from Sept 2011 low. The recovery which started at the end of last year retested the broken trend line and getting rejected. There's a possibility that the Index has started to roll over and potentially can extend lower especially if data continues to reinforce the economic slowdown. At the minimum, the Index can see a larger 3 waves pullback to correct the 3 months old rally. A close above the broken trend line from Sept 2011 low will invalidate this bearish view.

DAX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


The 1 hour Elliott Wave chart for DAX shows that the rally to 11825.64 ended wave x. This ends right around the apex as the weekly chart above shows. The Index has started to roll over. The decline from there is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure and ended wave ((w)) at 11299.80. Short term, wave ((x)) bounce is expected to fail at 11577 - 11703 for further downside as far as pivot at 11825.64 stays intact.

Keep in mind that market is dynamic and the view may have changed since the publication of the article.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

I want to share with you Elliott Wave charts of Sugar which we presented to our members recently. You see the 1-hour updated chart presented to our clients on the 03/18/19. The higher degree trend of the pair is to the downside. So our members know that the right side is to the downside in the daily chart. Consequently, we advised members that we don't like buying Sugar. And if you know what not to trade in the markets you have already won half of the battle because you know which direction is not the right one.

Sugar ended the cycle from 02/20/19 peak in black wave ((w)) at 03/07/19 low (12.15). Above from there, we expected a bounce to occur in black wave ((x)). The bounce unfolded in an Elliott Wave double correction structure. We advised members that Sugar should continue lower. Therefore, we expected sellers to appear in the sequences of 3, 7 or 11 swings. At the 100 - 1.618 Fibonacci extension of blue (w)-(x) which came at around 12.87-13.25 area and that was the first area for the selling to take place.



Sugar 03.18.2019 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis




In the last Elliott Wave chart. You can see that Sugar reached the blue box area perfectly. It did not extend into the blue box and reacted immediately lower. We need to keep in mind that in other scenarios the market can also extend into the blue box before a reaction lower/higher can be seen. If traded the blue box. Then any trades from that area shown in the chart above were risk-free, which means the stop-loss should be moved to break even, looking now for another extension lower. Please keep in mind that the 1-hour chart which I presented can have changed. This blog should just illustrate how accurate our blue boxes are, and how our members trade our 3-7 or 11 swings strategy.

If you are interested in how to trade our blue box areas and want to understand how Elliott Wave works. We present a lot of trading setups in our 3 Live Trading Rooms.



Sugar 03.27.2019 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis




I hope you liked this blog and I wish you all good trades.



We provide precise forecasts with up-to-date analysis for 78 instruments including Forex, Commodities, ZN (10 year note yields), World Indices, Stocks, ETFs and Bitcoin. Our clients also have immediate access to Market Overview, Sequences Report, 1 Hour, 4 Hour, Daily & Weekly Wave Counts. Daily & Weekend Technical Videos, Live Screen Sharing Sessions, Live Trading Rooms and Chat room where they are provided live updates and given answers to their questions. The guidance of ElliottWave-Forecast gives subscribers the wherewithal to position themselves for proper entry and exit in the markets. We believe our disciplined methodology and Right side system is pivotal for long-term success in trading.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Today the price of Bitcoin suddenly jumped a massive 23% within 2 hours to reach the highest level in 4 months. The crypto-currency has also added over $14 billion to its market value in the last 24 hours. This ended the consolidation since last December at $3122 and provided relief for the bulls. A large volume accompanies the rally higher as the chart below shows:



There does not seem to have any specific reason or catalyst for the rally. Rival coins such as Ether, XRP, and Litecoin also jumped. Trading has been subdued in the last few months and volatility may have reached the floor, thus a mean reversion is bound to happen.



One possible reasons for the breakout is a short squeeze when the virtual coin was finally able to break above the $4,200 resistance level. It struggled to break this level in the past 4 months. The clean break led to the substantial follow through possibly triggering some algorithmic trade. This break higher has the chance to end the bearish trend since Jan 2018 high as the chart below shows:

Bitcoin Daily Chart


Dips in Bitcoin can now hold above $4200 for further upside in coming months. Below is our latest 4 hour Bitcoin Elliott Wave chart

4 Hour Bitcoin Elliott Wave Chart


From the chart above, we can see the rally from Jan 29, 2019 low is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from Jan 29 low, wave 1 ended at $4190 and wave 2 ended at $3658.19. Wave 3 is currently in progress and subdivides as an impulse of lesser degree. Near term, expect more upside in the cryptocurrency as far as dips stay above $3849.33.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

After forming the low on December 24, 2018 low at $42.36, Oil has continued to recover. The rally from Dec 24 last year looks to be unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave Structure. The instrument should soon reach the minimum 100% target at $63 - $65.8 and this area can potentially end the cycle from Dec 24, 2018 low. Expect some profit taking and larger 3 waves pullback when Oil reaches this area.

Near term, Oil is within wave ((C)) of the zigzag structure. As zigzag is a 5-3-5 structure, wave ((C)) subdivides into 5 waves. In the 1 hour chart below, we can see the wave (3) and (4) of this ((C)) leg. Rally to $60.39 ended wave (3) and pullback to $58.18 ended wave (4). Wave (5) is in progress as an ending diagonal. Up from $58.18, wave 1 ended at $60.38 and wave (2) pullback ended at $58.20

Expect wave 3 to end soon and wave 4 pullback to commence. While the dips stay above $58.18, oil should do 1 more leg higher in wave 5 of (5). This push higher should also end wave ((C)) of the zigzag from Dec 24, 2018 low. Afterwards, expect profit taking and larger pullback in Oil.

1 Hour Oil Elliott Wave Chart