Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello fellow traders. In today's blog, we will have a look at the recent price action of the WYNN Resorts Ltd. stock. The stock is listed in the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P500.

WYNN Resorts Ltd. is an American company which is based on the Las Vegas Strip in Nevada. It is an operator of high-end hotels and casinos. It was founded in 2002 from billionaire Steve Wynn. An American real estate businessman who is known to be involved in American luxury casino and hotel industry.

In the last couple of days there where some rumors going on about a possible Company takeover. WYNN Resorts has been planning to buy Crown Resorts. Which is Australia's largest entertainment and gaming group. Crown Resorts has a market capitalization of over $8.7 billion.

Due to the possible takeover, the WYNN Resorts and the Crown Resort stocks have been soaring higher in the last couple of days. Which you can see below.



WYNN Resorts Ltd. vs Crown Resorts




Now let's have a look at the technical perspective and the possible upside targets mainly in the WYNN Resorts stock.



WYNN Resorts Ltd. 04.10.2019 Daily Chart Analysis




In the chart above you can see that the stock clearly ended the cycle from June 2018 peak at its December 2018 low ($89.98). Above from there, it managed to break the descending trendline and that was the first indication of a bigger bounce in process. Last week it managed to break the 02/25/19 peak ($133.49) making it a higher high sequence. Now with the recent break higher. The cycle from 12/25/18 low is now incomplete. Which means it should ideally see the equal legs extreme area from 12/25 low. Which comes towards $157.39-$167.61 areas. Where sellers can be waiting again for a 3 waves reaction at least.

With the possible takeover of Crown Resorts. WYNN notched over 30%. Making it bullish against 03/27/19 low ($112.93). As long as it stays above that low. It should be supported in the sequences of 3-7 or 11 swings, targeting the $157.39+ areas. This can coincide with the latest bullish fundamental news about the Company as well. Helping the stock for further recoveries.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In today's blog, we will have a look between the relationship of the Dollar Index and the Mexican Peso. The USDMXN has been trading in the same direction as the Dollar Index and both have peaked in January 2017. As you can see in the following chart below.



Dollar Index vs USDMXN 04/11/2019 Weekly Chart




The USDMXN developed a 5 waves decline from the January 2017 peak. Accordingly, to the Elliott Wave Theory, that means that the sellers are in control. Because after the 3 waves pullback, there should be more downside to completed an ABC pattern. Which is an Elliott Wave Zig Zag structure as the internals has been unfolding as a 5-3-5. The chart below illustrates the Theory.







Now let's have a look at the USDMXN in the daily chart. Below you can see the Elliott Wave Theory labels presenting the ABC idea.




USDMXN 04/11/2019 Daily Elliott Wave Chart




The Mexican Peso clearly unfolded as an impulsive structure from its January 2017 peak. And it ended the 5 waves impulsive structure in the red wave a. Then it did a 3 waves correction higher in red wave b. But it was expected that sellers should take over at our blue box extreme area. Which came at around 20.406-20.988 area. From there it reacted nicely to the downside and created another 5 waves lower.

The Peso has topped at the 12/2018 peak. Which is the same peak in the Dollar Index. Below from there, it opened another leg lower breaking the 1./2019 low. Creating 2 degrees of bearish sequences with the target of 18.13-17.53 area first and then 16.37.

In conclusion. Any rally in the USDX should ideally fail below 01/2017 peak. Until the USDMXN reaches its extreme area at 16.37. From there the next big rally in the USDX should take place. We at Elliottwave-forecast understand that many traders do not use this kind of correlation. But our system is based on many components. Which included cycles, sequences, correlation, Elliott Wave and High-Frequency Trading (Blue Boxes). We always make an effort to locate "The Right Side". Therefore, we look at many related instruments because of the Market Nature which acts as a whole.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Short term Elliott Wave view on S&P 500 Futures (ES_F) suggests that the rally from March 9, 2019 low (2726.50) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. The Index is now within wave (3) which subdivides in 5 waves of lesser degree. In the chart below, we can see wave 3 of (3) ended at 2899.5 and wave 4 of (3) pullback ended at 2877.61.

Short term, expect the Index to extend higher towards 2918.54 - 2924.12 to end wave 5 of (3). Subdivision of wave 5 is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse of lesser degree. Up from 2877.61, wave ((i)) ended at 2900 and wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 2885.25. Rally to 2914.75 ended wave ((iii)), and wave ((iv)) ended at 2900.50. Wave ((v)) of 5 is in progress towards 2918.54 - 2924.12. Afterwards, Index should end wave (3) and pullback in wave (4) to correct cycle from March 25, 2019 low before the rally resumes. The pullback in wave (4) is expected to stay above March 25, 2019 low (2790.25) for further upside. We don't like selling the Index.

1 Hour S&P 500 Futures (ES_F) Elliott Wave Chart Asia Update

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) is second largest and second highest valued chipmakers in the world. It designs and manufactures microprocessors and platform solutions for the global personal computer and data center markets.

Looking at the company’s Fundamental situation, its return on Total Capital is 23.43 and its Return on Invested Capital has reached 20.60%. Its Return on Equity is 29.33, and its Return on Assets is 16.76. Intel's year on year earnings growth rate has been positive over the past 5 years and its 1-year earnings growth exceeds its 5-year average (118.2% vs 8.3%).



All the above metrics suggest that Intel is well organized in using the earned money to generate more returns which is reflected on its stock performance as it remains one of investor's favorite.

Based on Elliott Wave Theory, INTC is rallying in an impulsive waves structure since 2008 low and cycle is extending higher within the strongest 3rd wave. As presented on the Monthly chart, the stock is looking for the target area at $61.24 - $67.05 to end wave III followed by a pullback in wave IV then again the stock will resume the move higher.

INTC Elliott Wave Monthly Chart


Consequently, the mid-term focus will be on the current cycle from October 2018 and December 2018 lows. INTC is already showing 5 waves up from $43.35 low and reached the minimum target area $59 - $63. Short term buyers needs to be careful at this stage as 3 waves pullback can be seen due to take profit.

A correction in wave (4) is expected to find buyers in 3, 7 or 11 swings as long as the pivot at December 2018 low remains intact for the stock to continue the rally higher as a 5 waves structure from October 2018 low.

INTC Elliott Wave 4H Chart


In conclusion, Intel Technical and Fundamental picture is strong in both sides and the stock is aiming for further gains in the future. Therefore Investors are advised to watch INTC closely for buying opportunity during the next Daily pullback.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In today's blog, we will have a look at the latest price action of the Blackrock stock. The stock is listed in the S&P500.

BlackRock is an American company which is based in York City. It is a global investment management company for institutional clients and also for retail investors. Current chairman and CEO of BlackRock is Laurence Douglas Fink mostly called Larry Fink.

BlackRock is the world largest asset manager with over $6 trillion assets under its current management. Which makes it one of the biggest and most powerful investment management company in the world. The company released yesterday its first-quarter earnings. The revenue came out at $3.35 billion, which was slightly higher than the expectations of $3.33 billion. Adjusted earnings per share: $6.61, beating expectations of $6.12. Which made the stock breaking its 03/01/19 peak, making the right side higher against $412.80 low which can be seen in the chart below.



BlackRock 04.17.2019 4H Sequence Analysis




Due to the earnings release, the stock managed to break above 03/01/19 peak opening up further extension higher. Making it now a 5 swing incomplete bullish sequence from 12/24/18 low. Ideally, BlackRock should see $467.73-483.07 areas which is the 0.618-0.764 extension area from its 12/24/18 lows. in that area, it is expected to end the 5th swing followed by a pullback in swing 6. Before another extension higher into the initial equal legs should be seen.

The target area of the equal legs extreme comes at around $504.62-$526.17 were a bigger reaction lower is expected to take place and also to end the 7th swing. For now, any pullback against 03/25/19 low should find buyers the sequences of 3-7 or 11 swings, targeting the equal legs area ($504.62-$526.17).

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In today's blog, we will have a look at the latest price action of the Caterpillar.

Caterpillar is an American company which has its headquarter in Deerfield Illinois. Caterpillar is one of the largest construction equipment manufacturer in the world. It is listed in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The company released yesterday its first-quarter earnings. The revenue came out at $13.47 billion, which was higher than the expectations of $13.27 billion. Adjusted earnings per share: $2.94, beating expectations of $2.83. Even tho the earnings came out pretty strong. The stock dipped in the opening. Below you can see the daily chart of Caterpillar before the opening. It was expected to dip before more upside should be seen.

The stock ended the cycle from 01/25/18 peak at the 10/25/18 low. Above from there, it managed to break above 12/03/18 peak making it an incomplete sequence from that low, indicating more upside into the equal legs (blue box) towards 146.48+ areas. Where a bigger reaction lower should be seen. (Swing counts do not reflect Elliott Wave counts!)



Caterpillar 04.24.2019 Daily Sequence Analysis






In the last chart below you can see the price action after its earnings release. And like expected it pulled back. As long as it manages to stay above 129.24 low it is still capable of trading higher into the equal legs extreme area (blue box) before a bigger reaction in Caterpillar should take place. For now, any pullback against 129.24 low should find buyers again in the sequences of 3-7 or 11 swings, targeting the equal legs area ($146.48-165.22).



Caterpillar 04.24.2019 after the earnings release






In the latest update below you can see that Caterpillar has been holding the trendline like expected. Ideally, it continues now higher into the blue box area where a reaction lower should take place.

UPDATE: Caterpillar 04.27.2019

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Coffee Futures (KC_F) formed a lower high in October 2018 and have been declining since then. In the last 6 months, KC_F lost approximately 27.8% dropping from a high of 125.51 to it's current levels. In this blog, we look at the cycle from 11.8.2016 peak and explain whether prices could recover soon or any bounces should rather act as selling opportunities. Let's take a look at the chart below which shows the sequence and the cycle from 11.8.2016 peak.

Coffee Futures (KC_F) Cycle from 11.8.2016 peak
In the below chart, we can see Coffee Futures (KC_F) is showing 5 swings bearish sequence down from 11.8.2016 peak. First 3 swings ended at 9.18.2018 which was followed by a quick bounce to 125.51 that ended on 10.19.2018. Coffee Futures then started turning lower again and eventually managed to break below 9.18.2018 low. Break below 9.18.2018 low has created an incomplete bearish 5 swing sequence which puts sellers in control. This doesn't mean decline would be in a straight line and certainly, bounces will take places but any bounces are expected to fail in a sequence of 3, 7 or 11 swings for continuation lower towards 75.33 - 63.42 area initially. This is the typical area for 5th swing to end and it's from here that KC_F could see the biggest bounce since the cycle started on 10.19.2018 peak. However, this bounce would also be expected to fail below 10.19.2018 (125.51) peak for another swing lower to complete 7 swings down from 11.8.2016 peak. It could reach as low as 44.17 (100% Fibonacci Extension) to complete 7 swings sequence down from 11.8.2016 peak. We don't like buying the pair and expect sellers to appear in the bounces in 3, 7 or 11 swings as far as pivot at 10.19.2019 (125.51) high remains intact.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Trading is a profession that many enter with big dreams, we all have been guilty one way or the other of the illusion of making a living out of trading. Many aspects are part of a trader been able to success like self-control, greed, fear among them. We believe that one of the most important aspects for a trader to know and control is Identity.
Identity by definition is who you are, the way you think about yourself, the way you are viewed by the world and the characteristics that define you.
The market is by nature an entity which tests each trader into the most possible extremes, we fear to lose, we want more, we want to make money fast, we live a dream many times. Many traders do not understand the nature of the Market which many ways is needed to relate to each trader own nature or Identity. Market comes with combinations of time frames and this is aspect in which many fail to understand the oscillations and how each trader is not suitable for each time frame, as we always have said the lower the hardest it becomes, but also the stronger the trader mentality needs to be because of the number of oscillations.

Elliott wave Theory cycle degrees is represented as follow:
Grand Super Cycle: multi-century
Super Cycle: multi-decade (about 40–70 years)
Cycle: one year to several years (or even several decades under an Elliott Extension)
Primary: a few months to a couple of years
Intermediate: weeks to months
Minor: weeks
Minute: days
Minuette: hours
Subminuette: minutes
As we can see, the lower the degree the lower the time frame, but also the hardest it gets, let us explain the most popular degrees.
Intermediate is a degree which can be traded in the Monthly or Weekly chart and trade can last a year more and less, this type of trade is very reliable due to the fact that in one year there is only 12 months and 52 weeks which indicated 12 monthly charts or 52 weekly charts.
Minors, is a degree which can be seen in the Weekly and Daily charts and is very reliable, there are 52 Weekly charts and 365 Daily charts.
Minutes is a degree which is also reliable because can be seen in the Daily charts and 4 Hour charts, there are 365 Daily charts and 1248 4 Hours charts.
Below this degree, the Market becomes more dangerous and consequently more demanding of discipline and self-understanding of each one strength and weakness. Every single tool of Technique will be tested to a higher degree because the number of oscillations will increase tremendously.
Minuette is the degree which can be seen in the 4 Hour and 1 Hour charts which make the trade a small swing trade and can last a few days, ideally the trader will be trading the 4 Hour pullback and entering base in the 1 Hour chart, there are 1248 4 Hour charts and 7488 1 Hour chart in a year.
Subminuette is the most popular degree and the hardest to trade, most of the traders ending losing and not lasting more than 2 years and this degree is the major reason, there are many reasons or myths like the lack of equity which forced traders to trade in this degree, but with the right money management a trader can trade into more reliable higher degrees. Read this article in which we explain how to do it the right way. An Important Lesson on Money Management. There are 7488 1 Hour charts in a year, but when trading this degree, a trader will be entering the base in 15 minutes pullbacks which can be counted as 29952 charts or periods in a year.
As we have explained, the degrees are related to the time frames, but the most important is knowing your self and trying to find the degree that fixes you better, most of the traders tend to trade in the riskiest degrees, but also tend to trade in degrees which do not fit your personality. Even when we all Humans, we do not have the same personality, we are different in how to handle emotions, stress, fear, and greed consequently, we all cannot trade the same degree. Based in the math the higher the degree the better and instead of the Subminuette which is the most popular the Minutes is the better fit for the equity and most personalities, only traders with a higher degree of self-discipline and huge understanding of how to invest in the long run and money management should be trading the below Minuette degrees due the challenging which comes with them. As always, we trying to help traders around the world to become better traders and be able to last and make the dream of becoming professional traders a reality.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of DJI Mini Futures ( $YM_F ). As our members know DJI is showing incomplete bullish sequences in the cycle from the December 2018 low . Break of 02/25 peak, has made DJI bullish against the 03.08 low( 25223 ). Consequently, we advised members to avoid selling DJI and keep on favouring the long side. In the following article, we’re going to explain the Elliott Wave structure and Forecast.

DJI 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 4.18.2019
DJI ended cycle from the 26058 as 5 waves structure and gave us pull back against that low. Short term pull back has unfolded as Elliott Wave ZIGZAG Pattern ((a))((b))((c)). Pull back has reached important technical area, blue box : 26358-26259. It's already showing reaction from there, and also having enough number of swings in place. At this moment we are calling pull back completed. However need to see further separation from the current low and ideally break above 1 red ( 04/05) peak to confirm next leg higher is in progress. We don’t recommend selling the index at this stage and favor the long side against the 26058 low. Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a bounce. The main trend is bullish and we expect to see reaction in 3 waves up from the blue box at least. As soon as the bounce reaches 50 fibs against the ((b)) high, we will make long positions risk free and let the profit run.



DJI 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 4.18.2019
Buyers appeared right at the blue box when pull back completed at 26312 low. We got expected rally and as a result members are now enjoying profits in risk free positions. Recently we got a new short term high with a break above 04/05 peak, confirming next leg up is in progress. At this stage DJI can remain bullish against the 263123 pivot in first degree, suggesting more strength potentially. Intraday pull backs can find buyers in 3,7,11 swings for proposed rally or 3 wave bounce at least.

Keep in mind that market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Summary

• A strong 3.2% U.S first quarter GDP indicates robust economy.
• Temporary drivers of the growth however may not be sustainable for the remainder of the year.
• Strong U.S. economic data can continue to boost global stock market and U.S. Dollar in the short term.

The U.S Commerce Department reported a strong first quarter GDP growth of 3.2% last week. This is the fastest figure since 2015 and put to rest the fear of recession. It also beat the expectation of over 2% growth by the economists. The GDP result was positive for the market causing global stock markets to rise. S&P 500 registered another record closing high. The dollar fell against a basket of other currencies but could just take a breather after a strong rally since early 2019. After all, around the world, things are not looking as bright. Germany is barely growing and Japan is slumping.



Source: Atlas with data from Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

However, not everything in the GDP report is rosy. The drivers of the growth primarily come from two sources: Smaller trade deficit and large inventory. Exports grew by 4%, but recent data indicates contraction in global trade. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis reports the world trade momentum contracts by 1.9%, the sharpest contraction since 2009.



Source: CPB

Strong GDP Number Support Global Market and US Dollar
This suggests that the export growth may be temporary and can't continue to boost the GDP number for the remainder of this year. The surge in inventory is yet another temporary factor which may not necessarily indicate a strong economy. Although a stock buildup can signal that companies expect future demands to increase, it can also signal sluggish demand as unsold inventory accumulates. Thus, the number doesn't really tell us the underlying strength of the economy.

However, despite some of the underlying questions on the two elements, the GDP print reveals that the recession fear is overblown. Global stock markets responded favorably with S&P 500 notching a new all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is also close to breaking out the previous 2018 high. With continued optimism and momentum buying, the rally in global markets can continue to extend in the short term. U.S. Dollar can also continue to outperform with the rest of the world market lagging.

USDCHF Daily Elliott Wave


USDCHF Daily chart above shows that sequence from Feb 29, 2018 low remains incomplete with 100% target towards 1.043 - 1.064 area. The pair shows a bullish sequence from 3 different cycles:

1. February 19, 2018 low
2. September 24, 2018 low
3. January 10, 2019 low

Additionally, the pair looks to have broken above the wedge-like pattern which has limited the rally for the past year. We expect the pair to continue finding support in dips in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

SPY. The Elliott wave Theory is a Technical Analysis method that traders use to analyze the market and located the trend by using the relationship between highs and lows and applying a system developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s. Almost 100 years have passed now since it was developed, and the Market has changed. The principle is very simple and comes with clear three rules.

• Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1.
• Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the three impulse waves, namely waves 1, 3 and 5.
• Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1, except in the rare case of a diagonal triangle formation.

Such a simple system to forecast something so complex like the Market will create a lot of subjective outcomes and it is not enough to archive a higher degree of success.

The Elliott Wave Theory main pattern is the one in which the Market always advance in 5 waves and each subdivision is also 5 waves in lesser degree cycles. The idea of the 5 waves is known as Motive or Impulse wave and most of the time go with the main trend based on the original concept, as we are showing in the following chart.







If we look at the chart from the beginning of the cycle. There are 3 big cycles, which are labeled in 1-2-3, but only making a 4-5 will make the whole structure an Impulse. By nature, it is always either wave 1-3-5 which will extend and in most of the cases wave 3 is the extended one.

Looking at the same chart, when the cycle ends and then corrects back in 3 waves, it is what is called an ABC pattern. Which is 3 cycles against the main cycle and comes in a wave of 5-3-5.
Like we mentioned above, Mr. Elliott concept is too simple and opens the door for subjective nature. Therefore, we have added rules to the three originals ones to make the concept better.

One of the new rules is the one that makes the difference between an Impulse and an ABC which is the extension. If wave 3 or C pass the 1.618% it means that it is an impulse over an ABC. By sequences, both structures are the same until wave 3 or C ends. In concept 3 cycles, 2 of them in the same direction and subdivided in 5 waves and a connector between them in 3 waves. The following chart is showing an ABC which is a 5-3-5 structure.







As we can see it is the same as the first 3 legs in the previous 5 waves chart. In our new concept, the difference between them is that in an impulse, wave 3 needs to pass the 1.618% extension between 1-2 and at that moment the ABC pattern will become an impulse by rule. This rule is very simple and it will save a lot of subjection to traders and will make them not to pick the wrong side of the market.

For years, we were mentioning how the SPY is within the Blue Box from the Grand Supercycle and that the $318.00 area is key. Which is the same as $3180 in the SPX Index. This level will make a huge difference for the next years in SPY. When many believe a huge decline in World Indices is about to happen and keep selling them, we keep pushing the upside for the last years. Have a look at the following blog we did in the past.

We are waiting for confirmation yet about the $318.00 level in SPY, which is only 24 points away. If it manages to reach that area it will tell that we can be ending a cycle in the Supercycle degree from 2009 But the Grand Supercycle will be extending higher after a pullback. Which can be seen in the chart below:



SPY Monthly Elliott Wave Chart 04.29.2019




The $318.00 level is the 1.618% extension between (I) and (II) and by reaching it, it will make the difference between an ABC or impulse since the all-time lows.

In 1930s Mr. Elliott did not have tools like we have today. He was a genius in his own way, but with today’s tools, Traders and Elliott Wave Services needs to make it better and follow the progress instead of applying a very open concept which is a century old. $318.00 will open the door to $400.00 in the years to come and provide another multi-year cycle.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Karachi Stock Exchange from Pakistan (KSE-100 index) is a major stock market index which tracks the performance of largest companies by market capitalization from each sector of Pakistani economy listed on "The Karachi Stock Exchange". Since October 15th, 2012 it is a free-float index. The KSE100 has a base value of 1000 as of November 1991.

Top 10 KSE 100 Index Companies
Below is the list of top 10 companies with the largest market capitalization volume and their respective weighting in the index. These companies account for over 74% of the index as of July 2013.



Pakistan's Economic Outlook
Pakistan's economy is going through a boom & bust cycle that sees it back at the door of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). When the debt is soaring, the current account deficit is widening, reserves are falling and the currency has been devalued over 34% since the December 2017. High inflation is another challenge for Pakistan's economy, where the consumer price index has risen to the highest levels since 2013, inflation is way above the central bank’s average forecast range of 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent for the year ending June. Due to which, some analysts are expecting another rate increase of 50-100 basis points in the short run.

The central bank has already raised the rates by cumulative 475 basis points since December 2018 to maintain the financial blowouts from Pakistan's current account deficit and balance of payment crisis. And now, Pakistan's' New government lead by PM Imran Khan is looking for 13th bailout package from IMF since the late 1980s looking to meet the current account & balance of payments crisis. However, the negotiations are still underway and delay in the agreement is causing the currency value, while local stocks are soaring to the lowest levels in three years. Causing the KSE-100 index to soar more than 10,000 points since the second quarter of 2018.

KSE-100 Technical Outlook
So now, let's take a quick look at the technical view of the KSE-100 index using Elliott wave theory. The index has ended the cycle from all time in Grand Super Cycle within wave ((I)) at 53127 high seen at 5/25/2017 peak. Since then, the index has made a strong pullback in the Grand Super Cycle wave ((II)). The pullback from 2017 peak is unfolding as zigzag structure looking to extend lower towards 31732-22247 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area. Then from there, the buyers are expected to appear in that blue box area looking for more upside or for bigger 3 wave reaction higher at least.

KSE-100 Weekly Elliott Wave View


Keep in mind that the market is dynamic and the view could change in the meantime. Success in trading requires proper risk and money management as well as an understanding of Elliott Wave theory, cycle analysis, and correlation. We have developed a very good trading strategy that defines the entry. Stop loss and take profit levels with high accuracy and allows you to take a risk-free position, shortly after taking it by protecting your wallet.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Short Term Elliott Wave view in CADJPY calls the bounce to 84.37 on April 17, 2019 as wave 2. The pair is currently in wave 3 lower and the internal subdivides as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 84.37, wave (i) ended at 83.49, wave (ii) ended at 83.925, wave (iii) ended at 82.66, wave (iv) ended at 83.33, and wave (v) ended at 82.53. This 5 waves decline ended higher degree wave ((i)) of 3. Pair is currently in wave ((ii)) of 3 correction and the internal subdivides as a Flat Elliott Wave structure.

A Flat is an ABC structure with subdivision of 3-3-5. Up from 82.53, we can see wave (a) ended at 83.2 and subdivides in 3 waves. Wave (b) ended at 82.59, and wave (c) is in progress and subdivides in 5 waves. The blue box of 83.26 - 83.67 shows 100% - 161.8% fibonacci extension of wave (a)-(b). This is the area where wave ((ii)) can potentially complete. More importantly however, as far as the invalidation level of 84.37 stays intact, expect the bounce to fail and pair to extend lower.

1 Hour CADJPY Elliott Wave Chart Post Market Update

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

GBPAUD Technical Analysis April 2019

Every trader should always view the market in the "bigger picture" first. Viewing the market starting from the higher time frame down to the lower time frames will offer a trader a better perspective on the possible price movements that the market can do. A "top down analysis" will offer a trader a clearer picture of the markets which will in return allow a trader to ultimately decide which side to trade. As you will see in the charts below a top down analysis was used at the start of April 2019 that led us to call the GBPAUD 500 pip move lower that we are currently seeing today.

GBPAUD Weekly Chart 3.31.2019 : Weekly chart contains the possible support/resistance lines where price can possibly move towards. March 31/2019 we saw a strong bearish Weekly candle that formed which signalled that bears were in control and that price had a possibility of moving lower towards next level of support.



GBPAUD Daily Chart 3.31.2019 : On the Daily chart price broke below the ascending trend line which can also be signalling for a possible continuation lower to the next support level in the following days.



GBPAUD 4 Hour Chart 3.31.2019 : A clear bearish Head and Shoulders breakout pattern on the 4 hour chart triggered SELLS below the H&S neck line. The breakout below the neck line added more confirmation for traders to look for possible selling opportunities in the following days.



GBPAUD 1 Hour Chart 4.2.2019 : On the 1 hour chart bearish patterns formed which gave us the opportunity to SELL and enter the market. April 2/2019 we published this trade setup calling for the move lower

Price has since moved 500 pips lower from the 1.86 handle SELL entry area and can still continue lower towards next support level at the 1.80-1.79 area. A "top down analysis" will always allow a trader to get an overall outlook of where price can go.



Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article.

*** Always use proper risk/money management according to your account size ***

At Elliottwave-Forecast we cover 78 instruments (Forex, Commodities, Indices, Stocks and ETFs) in 4 different timeframes and we offer 5 Live Session Webinars everyday. We do Daily Technical Videos, Elliott Wave Trade Setup Videos and we have a 24 Chat Room. Our clients are always in the loop for the next market move.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Gold higher time frame cycles suggest that cycle from 8/16/2018 low ended 5 waves advance on February 20, 2019, at $1346.75 high. Since then, Gold is going lower in an impulse manner as the decline is unfolding as Elliott wave zigzag structure. It's important to note that the cycle from 2/20/2019 peak remains incomplete to the downside therefore, further downside is expected. Looking for more downside towards $1258.18-1242.45 100%-123.6% Fibonacci extension area of Minor A-B before finding support.

The internals of wave C is unfolding as ending diagonal structure where wave ((i)) ended at $1280.70. Wave ((ii)) ended at $1310.60 high, wave ((iii)) ended at $1266.10 low and wave ((iv)) ended with an overlap in wave ((i)) at $1288.87 high. Down from there, the decline can be nesting lower as impulse structure where Minutte wave (i) ended at $1277.90. Minutte wave (ii) ended at $1287.26 high and now Minutte wave (iii) taking place looking for more downside.

Or another possibility is that, if it manages to take out $1272.70 Subminutte wave i, then it can be ending 5 waves decline from 4/26/2019 peak ( $1288.87) in Minutte wave (i). Then 3 wave bounce can take place against $1288.87 high in Minutte wave (ii) before further downside take place. We do not like buying Gold in the shorter cycle and still favor more downside as far as pivot at $1288.87 remains intact.

Gold 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

S&P Metals & Mining ETF, XME
In the immediate term price action for XME we're seeing an interesting setup that is projecting more lows to come. At EWF we use a proprietary pivot and cycle analytical method that combines with Elliott wave analysis.

5.1.2019 Post Market Chart


For a look at how we got to where we are in the immediate term we must look at a higher degree of analysis. From the $32.41 high of 2/25/2019 the ETF moved lower to $28.67 on 3/8/2019. XME then pushed higher in a clear three wave pattern to the $31 high of 4/8/2019.

4 Hr Chart


One characteristic of note is why the turn lower actually occurs at $31. Measuring the correction from the lows of $28.67 we see a 3 wave move higher (in green) to a blue box. The box spans in height in equal legs from the first swing in green relative to the 3 swing in green measured from the second swing low. The box extends to the 1.618 extension of the first leg relative to the third leg from the bottom of the second swing low. In our system price needs to stay within this 1.618 extension. Otherwise a break suggests something else is going on. Or, in other words it would not be a correction anymore.

This is how we build our boxes where we look for reactions to take place and continue lower in the case of XME. XME finds a high at $31 right in the middle of the blue box.

On the next higher degree we are looking for at least a minimal move to the downside from $31 that is equal in length to the 1st leg down (in red) from the $32.41 high. This projects the ETF to extend to at least $27.26 with further downside possible to the $24.95 level. So this method works to give an analyst target areas at all degrees of trend.

Trade Safe,

James

Elliottwave-Forecast Analytical Team

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) tracks a market-cap-weighted index of US-listed semiconductors companies. Such companies include big technology names like Intel (INTC: NASDAQ) and Nvidia (NVDA: NASDAQ). The ETF is currently up +30% year-to-date making new all time highs and leading the move among few other instruments.

For this article, we'll be taking a look at the technical weekly and 4 hour charts of SMH based on the Elliott wave Theory :

SMH Weekly Chart


As you can see in the above chart, the current main cycle for SMH started in 2008 low after the financial crisis. Up from there, it rallied higher in a series of Motive or Impulse waves which subdivide into 5 waves in lesser degree cycles of each leg.

The current wave V of (III) presented above is looking ideally for a target at $124 - $140 area before another 3 waves correction similar to last year would take place in wave (IV) then the ETF will again resume the rally to new all time highs.

SMH 4H Chart


Using the 4 Hour chart, we can clearly see the 5 waves subdivision of the lesser degree cycles coming up from December 2018 low. Up from there, the ETF is showing a bullish sequence higher which is aiming for target at 100% - $161.8% Fibonacci extension area $124 - $140. Consequently, the short term pullback will be expected to remain supported above $99 low for the ETF to extend further to the upside.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In today's blog, we will have a look at the latest moves in The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated stock.

Cheesecake Factory is an American Restaurant chain and distributor of cheesecakes which has its headquarter in Los Angeles, California. The Restaurant has around 210 locations around the U.S. but they also expanded into international markets. The Restuartunals is listed in the NASDAQ 100.

The company released its first-quarter earnings on May the first 2019. The revenue came out at $599.48 million and consequently missed the consensus estimate of $602 million. However, the adjusted earnings per share were $0.62, beating the expectations of $0.60. Even tho the earnings missed the forecasted numbers the stock was able to make a new high. Below you can see the daily chart of Cheesecake Factory. The stock ended the cycle from 07/27/18 peak at 12/28/18 low. And above from there is has been correcting that cycle.

With the new spike higher after the earnings release, it managed to break above 02/21/19 peak making it a 5 swings incomplete sequence from its 12/18/18 low, opening up extension higher. As long as the stock stays above the 6th swing low ($48.21) it should ideally trade higher into the blue box area towards $52.91-$58.19. This coincides with the identical cycle in the world indices.



The Cheesecake Factory 05.04.2019 Daily Sequence Analysis




In the last chart, you can see nicely that the FTSE 100 Index is trading within the same cycle as the Cheesecake Factory stock and has an incomplete sequence to the upside based on the "One Market Only" concept. This can also be the first indication that the stock could potentially trade higher as well into its respective equal legs area.



The Cheesecake Factory vs FTSE 100 05.04.2019 Sequence Analysis




I hope you liked this blog and I wish you all good trades.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the charts of GOLD published in members area of the website. GOLD has had incomplete sequences in the cycle from the February 2oth peak (1347.43) . Consequently , we advised clients to avoid buying GOLD and keep on selling the rallies in 3,7,11 swings when given the opportunity.
In the charts below, we’re going to explain the Elliott Wave Structure and Trading Strategy.

GOLD Elliott Wave 4 Hour Chart 4.4.2019
Break of 03/07 low made February cycle incomplete to the downside, suggesting the Commodity is bearish against the 03/25peak- B red. As far as the pivot at B red high holds, we should be ideally doing wav C red . The commodity is targeting 1257.63 area- Blue Box.





GOLD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 4.06.2019
As we can see at the charts below, GOLD is bearish against the 1324.45 peak . Proposed short term bounce ((i)) seems to be unfolding as a Elliott Wave Flat pattern when we can be in (c) of ((ii)) . Wave (c) should make 5 waves from the low to complete proposed pattern. We don't recommend buying GOLD in proposed bounce and although the right side is bearish, we remind our members that Elliott Wave Flats can be tricky to trade and to be more careful at this stage. Anyway as far as pivot at 1324.45 peak holds, we favor short side in the commodity.



GOLD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 4.11.2019
We got expected bounce and 5 waves from the low. Short term rally in wave (c) looks like Elliott Wave Ending Diagonal. Current view suggests that recovery is completed as wave Irregular Flat ((ii)) black. The chart is calling for further weakness within February cycle.



GOLD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 4.20.2019
Eventually we got another short term low in Commodity which has made cycle from the 1324.52 (03/25) peak incomplete as well, confirming further weakness. Current view suggests GOLD is doing short term recovery against the 1295.92 peak. We can get another leg up toward short term blue box area :1279.3-1283.6 ( sell zone) . At that area we like to be sellers for further delcine ideally or 3 wave pull back alternatively. Stop Loss of the trade is a break above 1.618 Fibonacci extension (12836.3). As our members know Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a reaction.



GOLD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 4.20.2019
GOLD has made proposed leg up and found sellers right at the blue box : 1279.3-1283.6 . Recovery ended at 1279.99 high and we have already got new short term low, confirming next leg down is in progress. As a result members who took short trades are now enjoying profits with risk free positions.

Keep in mind that market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Summary

• The Federal Reserve shows no bias to hike nor cut interest rate.
• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell believes subdued inflation is "transitory".
• U.S. stocks fell and the Dollar strengthens as odds of a rate cut drops.
• Technical Analysis using Elliott Wave suggests U.S. Dollar should continue to strengthen.

The Federal Reserve has concluded its 2 days meeting and decided to hold rates steady. It notes that inflation is running below the target of 2% but can be due to "transitory" factors.



With this decision, the Fed also resisted the pressure to cut interest rate by the White House. President Donald Trump has continued to attack the Fed several times. On Tuesday, he tweeted a series of post to put the pressure to the Fed hours after they began the two-day meeting. Trump suggested the Fed to cut interest rate by 1% and implement more quantitative easing.



This week's decision by the Fed affirms the March's meeting outcome signalling no rate change for the rest of 2019. In the previous meeting, the Fed said low inflation, weak global growth, and tightening financial condition warranted a pause in interest rate hike cycle. The FOMC statement also mentions that it will be patient as it weighs future interest rate move. On the economic front, the Fed notes the economic activity "rose at a solid rate." The global risks which have caused the Fed to pause last year has moderated.



Market continues to bet on a rate cut, but the odds of it happening reduced after the Fed's press conference. U.S. Dollar reacts favorably and starts to rally which is what we have been forecasting at Elliottwave-Forecast.

USDCHF Daily Elliott Wave Shows Bullish Sequence


We have shown the chart above in our previous article "Strong U.S. GDP supports the global market and U.S. Dollar" USDCHF shows a bullish sequence from February 29, 2018 low favoring further upside. The pair has also broken above the wedge-like consolidation. Yesterday, it retested the breaking point of the structure and has since rallied again. It should continue to find support and has scope to reach the 100% area towards 1.043 - 1.064.

USDCHF 1 Hour Elliott Wave New York Update 5.1.2019


The chart above is the New York update to our members prior to the FOMC's press conference. We told our members that dips should be a buying opportunity. The chart shows bullish sequence and right side stamp going higher, indicating our bias. We also place the blue box to indicate the area we expect pair to turn higher in 3 waves at least. The pullback in wave ((iv)) took the form of a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. We bought this dips in Live Trading Room yesterday and currently the reaction higher from the blue box allows us to move stop loss to our entry, creating a risk free trade.

USDCHF 1 Hour Elliott Wave New York Update 5.2.2019


As the chart above shows, the pair found buyers from the 100% extension area and has reacted higher. This allows us to move stop loss to break even and we don't need to worry about the trade anymore. Near term, pair can continue to see more upside as far as pivot at 1.0125 low stays intact.

Conclusion
The Fed affirmed its decision to hold rates steady despite the pressure to cut. With no rate cut seems to be on the horizon for the rest of 2019, the U.S. Dollar enjoys another rally. The dollar can continue to find support as the yield differential between the U.S. and other countries stay the same or growing. Elliott Wave technical analysis on $USDCHF also suggests that the pair, and by extension the U.S. Dollar, can continue to strengthen.