Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the US negative macroeconomic statistics. The January retail sale release disappointed traders with the weak data - the sales fell by 0.9% in January, indicating the weak private consumption and this is a negative factor for the economic growth. Against this background, the pair euro/dollar closed the trades at the opening price.

The British pound has shown the strong quotes growth after the Bank of England quarter inflation report release. The report is uneven. On the one hand, Mark Carney pointed to the monetary control willingness to decrease the key rate, if necessary, because of the oil prices decrease. On the other hand, traders noted that the rates could be increased earlier than expected. Traders focused their attention only on the last statement and began to open "longs". Against this positive background, the pair GBP/USD has grown.

Traders fixed profits at the pair USD/JPY after a sharp increase. The US negative retail sector sales statistics has accelerated the corrective movement development and at the moment quotes reached the level of 118.50 after which there was a technical rebound amid the US stock market growth. As a result, the pair dollar/yen decreased at the end of the day.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.02.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Germany recorded the GDP growth for the fourth quarter. The manufacturing and the service sector showed a slowdown in the last 2014 quarter. The euro devaluation has had a positive effect on the net exports, reducing unemployment to 0.1%. The Brent oil increased by more than 5% that would be able to support moderate demand for the single European currency.

There was the attempt to break through the resistance level of 1.1400, but the pair failed to fixate above it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1520 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1590.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The currency market major players reacted positively to the quarter inflation report despite the fact that the Bank of England governor pointed out to the monetary policy easing if necessary. Mark Carney noted that the British banks recapitalization had made the key interest rate decrease possible.

There were the resistance level of 1.5300 and the level of 1.5400 testing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong resistance 1.5400. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 1.5510.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

In the absence of the US and Japan important macroeconomic statistics, traders will focus their attention on the stock and bond market dynamics. Yesterday we observed a high demand for the risky assets amid the geopolitical tension decrease because of the Ukraine events as well as the US retail sales positive statistics.

After testing the strong resistance level of 120.40, the price has formed a short-term consolidation and sharply fell downwards. The support level of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 118.00 further on we expect a decrease to 117.00 where the pair may stop.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair dollar/franc will be consolidated with the risks balance, biased to the downside after it has reached the eight-day high of 0.9340 on Thursday.

The pair is under the market deteriorating relationships pressure towards the US dollar. The pair potential target is constrained by the Switzerland negative interest rates, by the Swiss National Bank intervention threat with the franc sales and the Swiss franc sales within the growing pair euro/franc.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair is consolidating now. We should wait till the pair will came out of the flat.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The euro exchange rate rose against the US dollar on Monday; the market's attention was directed to the Euro group meeting on Greece. The euro area finance ministers held a regular meeting on Monday evening where they discussed the Greek problem. Meanwhile, the European Financial Stability Fund governor (ESM), Klaus Regling stated on Sunday that the Greek exit from the euro zone would be the worst way out of the situation. The euro fell at the end of the trading day.

It is possible the price output from the range of 1.5320-5420 upwards within the British pound, but the movement can be muted by the expectations concerning the Tuesday inflation indices and the Wednesday Bank of England last meeting minutes publication - as the Monetary Policy Committee members supported the M.Karni’s idea to raise interest rates in the medium term.

The yen is becoming more expensive against the US dollar and the euro amid the Japan's GDP positive data that weakened expectations for taking stimulating measures by the Japanese Central Bank.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.02.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

A stronger than expected the 4th quarter Eurozone GDP preliminary data supported the market’s sentiment towards the pair. The pair is also supported by the negative market’s attitude towards the dollar. The pair growth potential is limited by the ECB large-scale quantitative easing program and by the euro sales in the EUR/JPY.

Based on the medium-term trend bears are still dominant on the market. The pair rebounded downwards from the level of 1.1400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the resistance level of 1.1300. After breaking 1.1300 the sellers may go to 1.1170.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pair is supported by the market’s negative attitude towards the dollar and the demand for the British pound in the declining euro/pound. The pair is also supported by the Bank of England Monetary Policy member statement *that the UK interest rates can be increased sooner than investors expect, as in the next two years inflation is expected to be close to the central bank's target level of 2.0%.

There was the resistance level of 1.5400 breakthrough amid the raised volume. But the pair couldn’t fixate above this level and it rebounded below it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5300 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.5400, 1.5500.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was not so much liquidity during the global trading day as the US financial markets did not work due to the national holiday.

The pair is under pressure because of the deteriorated relationship towards the dollar on the February consumer confidence preliminary index unexpected decrease, according to the University of Michigan, to 93.6 from 98.1 in January, with the growth forecast to 98.3.

The sharp prices decline from the resistance level of 120.40 was followed by the level of 119.20 breakthrough. The pair is decreasing towards 118.00 amid the lower volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 119.20, 120.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Euro group meeting results report was published where the Greece debt problems were discussed. As it became known Greeks refused to renew the assistance program on the same terms as the euro zone finance ministers rejected the Greek Government proposals contained earlier demands for changes in the current agreement. Against this background, the dollar rose sharply against the euro, the pound, and the yen.

It is worth noting that the dollar growth was restrained, apparently, because of the European authorities statements indicated that the issue could be still resolved on Friday as told the Euro group governor Dijsselbloem if "the Greek authorities are willing to undertake their obligations".

According to the statistics the US news line will be almost empty. Investors' attention can attract the NAHB report which is expected with the housing market index growth in February to 58 from the previous 57 that indicates the moods improvement among the housing market builders. As for the prospects, it is likely that the dollar will be traded under the European news influence where the economic calendar is much richer in content.

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.02.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The pair is under pressure after the news that the latest negotiations round between Greece and its euro zone partners, concerning the financial assistance to the country, has suffered a sudden failure on Monday when Athens once again refused to ask for the current assistance extension program by 172 billion euro which expires on February 28.

The triangle upper bound testing of 1.1400 was followed by the price rebound downwards to the level of 1.1300. The pair did not reach this level and returned to the resistance level of 1.1400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.1300 for a steady decrease. The way to the marks 1.1170 and 1.1040 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The January UK inflation will be in the center of our attention. It is forecasted the consumer price index (CPI) decline by 0.9%.

The pair is under pressure amid the investors increased risk aversion. The potential pair decrease was limited by demand for the British pound in the declining pair euro/pound.

The upward trend was stopped at the mark of 1.5400 from which was followed a slight rebound downwards and formed a consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.5300 and 1.5200 soon.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese economic news was not published; the pair dollar/yen traded in the narrow range under the influence of the Japan stock and bond market events. As for the prospects, in the terms of tension increase related to the euro area conflict situation, interest to the yen as a refuge, apparently, is still preserved.

After the strong support level of 119.20 breakthrough the price returned back to this mark, serving as a strong resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the support levels of 118.00 and 117.00.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar fixed divergent results in the disputes with its main competitors. The dollar has grown against the euro and the yen and has fallen against the pound. Earlier the euro was supported by the economic data and the hopes that the Greeks and the Eurozone still will come to an agreement, because both sides expressed readiness to continue the dialogue.

The Japanese yen came under pressure amid the renewed US "Treasuries" bond yields growth and the neutral mood within the pound, formed due to the absence of negativity in the US inflation readings that was reduced, but only because of the energy prices decrease which is considered as a positive moment in an economic development.

The US statistics showed not so encouraging results. The New-York Fed manufacturing index fell in February to 7.78 from 9.95 in January while the components, indicating the possible prospects, also decreased - new orders fell to 1.22 from the previous 6.09 and the employment growth slowed to 10.1 from 13.7 last month. With the home builders sentiment decrease has been announced the National Home Builders Association report (NAHB) – the index fell down to 55 against 57 in January when it was expected a growth to the level of 58. These messages discouraged investors a little bit, still it has not caused the large-scale dollar sales.

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.02.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The pair euro/dollar was supported by the ECB reports that the Bank will not stop the emergence Greek banks funding this week and Greece will request for the financial assistance program extension.

However, according to the ZEW the attitude towards the euro has deteriorated because of the weaker than expected sentiment indicators growth in the German economy.

Despite the level breakthrough of 1.1400, the price did not hurry to rise up to the correction. The pair fell under this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1520 soon.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The attitude towards the pound declined after the UK annual inflation decrease to the minimum for more than 50 years to 0.3% in January from 0.5% in December that was in line with our expectations. The pair growth potential also restricts the British pound sales within the increasing pair euro/pound.

The last week maximum of 1.5300 served as a good support for the corrective pound. The formed consolidation above this level signals about the bullish trend continuation. The pair rebounded upwards and broke through the resistance level of 1.5400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are two resistance levels of 1.5510 и 1.5620.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan monetary policy decision was in the center of our attention on Wednesday. The central bank governor Mr. Kuroda said that there were no reasons to think about the additional mitigating measures. The pair is supported by the yen weakened attractiveness as a safe haven.

The two day consolidation around 118.60 was followed by the price rebound upwards. The pair rose to the resistance level of 119.20. The trading volumes are in the downgrade zone.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement, and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 118.00 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 117.00.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The downward pressure on the USD was intensified after the not so encouraging economic indicators publication; taking into consideration the Fed Open Market Commission meeting minutes’ soft tone, the first interest rates growth is likely to be postponed until June. The US securities followed the dollar example; the 10-year bond yields fell from 2.15% to 2.08%. But surprisingly the protocols soft tone only worsened the situation, the main factor of exchange rate dynamics are negotiations between Greece and the EU.

The pair EUR / USD rebounded to 1.1415 after the Fed meeting minute’s publication, but it was unable to find enough buyers and moved into the consolidation phase. Even at the last moment the agreement between Greece and the EU can be the catalyst that will trigger the pair EUR/USD correction. The pair GBP/USD is stable near the more than one-month high against the US dollar as the US dollar remains under pressure. The pair USD/JPY fell to after the Fed news and it rebounded upwards to 118.96. The pair weakly responded to the favorable data on the trade volume changes and the Ministry of Finance week report.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

After reaching the Friday "truce" between Athens and the creditors on the Greece loans issue for four months under the guarantee of performing reforms, the market focused its attention on the J. Yellen two-day speech , the Federal Reserve governor which will be held on February 24 and 25. Yellen will announce her position to the economy state and maybe she will give a hint about rate saving to normalize monetary policy, followed by the rates increase.

If the Yellen speech result will be the US economy upward trend acknowledgement and the number of pessimistic characteristics is not going to be large - it will be a good signal to the fact that the Fed remains on the way to raise interest rates in the middle of this year. If this happens, the single currency and the yen clearly come out of the corridors in which they have already been the significant period of time and will continue to fall against the US dollar.

Difference in opinions, concerning the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve monetary policy is a negative factor for the yen. It is also important for the yen, but other additional factor will be the ECB government bonds real foreclosure which will expand its balance sheet and reduce the single currency price.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Eurozone finance ministers finally reached a compromise on the Greek debt. It is expected that the draft agreement will help to prolong the financial assistance program for 4 to 6 months with no obligations on the Greece part to comply with the austerity measures on which the Euro group insisted earlier.

There was the short-term strong support level of 1.1300 testing which was followed by the strong price rebound upwards. The price rebound was followed amid the very high volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential increase target is the resistance level of 1.1400.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK published the retail sales report according to the British Industry Confederation. The index showed +1 after +39. This is the minimum since November 2013.

The pair GBP/USD still continues to be in demand on the dips, however, the pair failed to return above the fifty-fourth figure.

There was a short-term consolidation under the resistance level of 1.5400. This consolidation was followed by an active rebound upwards above this level against the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5510 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.5620 .

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair dollar/yen declined amid the risk aversion last week as the Greek crisis current phase has forced investors to keep looking for a refuge. The information about the draft agreement between the Greeks and the Euro group provoked the pair reversal.

Sellers have tried to break through below the strong support level of 118.00 for three times last two weeks. There has been the price rebound upwards for three times.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement potential target is 118.00. If the price grows it will get to 119.20.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The main dollar disappointment was the US Federal Reserve governor speech. Janet Yellen in her comments made it clear that the regulator still kept thinking about interest rates increase, but she did not mention more or less explicit terms. In addition, Janet Yellen made it clear that even the January new jobs increase had not yet convinced the Fed that the labor market was stable and noted quite high inflation. Therefore, the market took her words as evidence that it is necessary to wait for a long period the low interest rates.

The Eurozone will not publish interesting statistics. Mario Draghi will make his speech, but it is unlikely that the ECB governor will say something new and different from what we had repeatedly heard. Therefore, the euro is likely to show us something special.

*The UK will not publish interesting macroeconomic data. Still the BOE Governor comments will influence the pair.

The pair dollar / yen will monitor the situation within the US housing market. The second Yellen’s speech is not much different from what she had said the day before. Therefore, the market will ignore this factor with a fairly high probability because everything stated by the Fed has actually built into the price. Anyway the primary housing market sales data can affect the market.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

After the Janet Yellen speech the market concluded that the US Central Bank was not inclined to hurry up with the interest rates increase. In particular she noted that the Fed would maintain a flexibility in raising rates issue and added that their increase at "the nearest pair of meetings is unlikely."

The price is still in the side corridor at the level of 1.1400 - 1.1300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the resistance level of 1.1400. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1520.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

Apparently, the Bank of England chose not to focus its attention on the short-term inflation and made it clear that the next step would be the interest rates increase. The Yellen speech can affect the pair movement.

Due to the rebound from the support level of 1.5300 the British pound confidently continued its upward trend, breaking through the resistance level of 1.5400 on its way. The pair tested the resistance level of 1.5510.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.5620.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair is under pressure from the US Treasury bond yields decrease and the deteriorated attitude towards the dollar after the Fed chairman semi-annual speech in Congress. She noted economic improvement and reminded investors that the central bank was close to the borrowings cost increase.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair breaks 119.20 up it will open the way to the level of 120.40 and then to 121.60.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

In the light of the Fed recent announcements all investors’ attention will be focused on the US economic data, namely the consumer inflation figures, durable goods orders, jobless claims, real wages and the US GDP.


It is expected that jobless claims will grow up, but not much, to 290 000 against 283 000. The main thing is that they remain below 300,000 which will point out to the continued strong upward trend in the labor market.

The January real wages data will play an important role. In December it increased by 0.2% and in January it is expected to rise by 0.3%. And, despite the fact that this figure is quite volatile, the overall salary dynamics increase indicates, although, the slow, but the US income recovery levels.

The US economic figures came out better then the forecast or even a little better and it returned expectation for the further interest rate increase in June to the markets and will have a positive impact on the US dollar. We would like to remind that on Tuesday and Wednesday J. Yellen persistently claimed that the interest rate increase deadlines will depend on the labor market and inflation statistics.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro sharply fell at the end of the trades. Earlier the pair euro/dollar was supported by the negative attitude towards the dollar and demand for the single European currency within the growing euro/yen amid the risk aversion weakening on the market. The euro growth potential is limited by the ECB large-scale quantitative easing program and the euro sales.

The pair was growing from the support level of 1.1300 amid the low volumes. Nevertheless the pair could not continue the growth and sharply decreased.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1300 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support level of 1.1170.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pair GBP/USD maintained the market negative attitude towards the dollar, demand for British pound within the growing pair GBP/JPY amid the weakening risk aversion and demand for it within the falling euro/pound.

The British pound strengthened against the US dollar quite confidently, breaking through the strong resistance level of 1.5510 on its way. Then the pair decreased to the support level of 1.5400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5510.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair USD/JPY increased at the end of the yesterday’s trades. Earlier the pair dollar / yen was under pressure from the market negative attitude towards the dollar (ICE Dollar Index reached 94.19 against 94.47 in the Wednesday morning ) as the Federal Reserve System chairman (FRS) Janet Yellen expressed quite careful position towards the interest rates. The Japanese exporters’ sales also put pressure on the pair. The pair potential reduction is limited by the Japanese importers demand and the Bank of Japan extremely soft policy.

The yen has been very sluggish and lowly volatile for the seven trading days. The last four days the trade has acquired a flat character around the uptrend line of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 120.40, 121.60.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair dollar / franc potential reduction is limited by the franc sales within the growing pairs: AUS/CHF, NZU/CHF and CAD/CHF. It is also supported by the Switzerland negative interest rates and the Swiss National Bank intervention threat with the franc sales.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9950.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

02.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar rose strongly against the euro after the US core CPI showed the first increase in January compared to the same period of the previous year from October 2009. The trades closed in the US dollar favor which strengthened against the euro by 167 points; the trading volatility totaled 196 points last week.

According to the data, the US initial jobless claims rose by 31 thousand to 313 thousand from 15 till 21 February while economists had expected the number would remain at the level of 290 thousand.

The US inflation data added strong pressure on the market which fell by 0.7%, but the core CPI, which excludes the food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% in January that supported the US dollar in the afternoon.

The durable goods orders volume rose by 2.8% in January 2015 which is a very good sign for the US economic growth. These data also supported the US dollar as economists had expected increase only by 1.7%.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro has fallen by 160 points. The formal and "official" reason was the root inflation index growth – the US consumer prices increased by 0.2% in January. The forecast was 0.1%.

Consolidation in the downward channel upper bound of 1.1400 led to the price rebound downwards and the support level breakthrough of 1.1300. Due to the formed breakthrough, the medium-term bearish trend has strengthened in the market.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1040 and 1.0925 soon.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound lost 120 points. We consider that the genuine reason for its decline lies in a sharp demand increase for European bonds which investors are actively buying before their repurchase by the ECB which will begin in March.

The active pound decline against the US dollar was followed from the resistance level of 1.5510. The price decrease was followed by the increased volumes and was suspended by the uptrend line of 1.5400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement potential target is 1.5510. If the price falls it will get to 1.5300.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar is slightly declining against the yen after the Japan disappointing economic data release while demand for the US dollar weakened after the American statistics publication.

The trade within the Japanese yen has been in the bottom of the upward flat for the last two weeks.

The strong resistance level of 119.20 was broken upwards. The pair is trading towards to 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the support levels of 119.20, 118.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc has rapidly grown during the US session and reached the highest level since the day that the Swiss National Bank released the franc against the euro. The mixed statistics publication supported the dollar and the pair increased at the end of the last week.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9150. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9950.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

After the last week dollar quite strengthening amid the market preparation to March when the ECB intends to launch the bond purchase program, the dollar is traded once again in its growth direction against the European majors. Most of the US economic messages announced the results within and above forecasts which allows the US dollar to keep balance after the news publication from other regions that are currently supported by its competitors.

The dollar and the yen opposition was not an exception - the US dollar continued its growth that started last week. In this case, the market was, probably, guided by the Japanese economic data which, in some way, possessed the opinion that the Japan Central Bank still would have to launch the softening program as well as the positive part of the US data which traditionally supports the pair dollar/yen.

The market volatility can grow amid the ECB and the BoE decisions at the meetings which will end on Thursday.

The dollar is also supported by the Fed top managers’ speeches (Bullard, Lockhart) and their statements showed that the Fed rate is firmly directed towards the monetary policy tightening.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The market's attention will be focused on the US and European business activity index as well as on the new signals regarding the Federal Reserve future rate hikes.

Earlier the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank president Dennis Lockhart said that he expected the Fed interest rates increase during the summer months, though, he believe that this decision would need additional confirmation from the macroeconomic data.

The signal for correction is the downward channel lower bound of 1.1170 testing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential correction target is the resistance level of 1.1300.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound is trying to intercept the US dollar initiative amid the confident macroeconomic indicators and the US Federal Reserve unclear position and the pound has a chance to strengthen against the US dollar this week.

The downward correction continues from the resistance level of 1.5510. There was the prices decrease amid the lower volumes which led to the uptrend line of 1.5400 breakthrough. This break signals towards the downward correction continuation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a down side. We expect the level of 1.5300 testing soon.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen resumed its decline against the dollar amid the coming expectations that the continuing divergence in the Fed and the Bank of Japan monetary policy approaches will continue to put pressure on the yen against the dollar. It is known that the Japan industrial production rose up to 4% m/m in January while it was expected increase by 2.7% m/m.

There was the last week maximum of 119.85 update and the pair rose up to the psychological level of 120.00. The price fixed above the resistance level of 119.20. The volumes are in reduced zone.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. The bulls’ target is the level of 120.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The beginning of the week was marked by the US dollar growth. The pair EUR/USD was in the flat near 1.1160-1.1245. The euro area inflation and unemployment positive releases could support the demand for the single European currency and at the moment quotations reached the level of 1.1245, but then traders closed their "longs" that caused the euro rebound. However the pair increased again.

The pair GBP/USD was under pressure amid the short positions profit taking at the cross-rate euro/pound as well as the US Treasury bond yields increase. The February UK manufacturing PMI was better than the forecasted medians, but traders did not hurry to open long positions. The pair EUR/GBP is in the oversold area that forced investors to withdraw partially from the short positions that put pressure on the British pound. Nevertheless the pair GBP/USD grew and is the flat.

Bulls dominated at market for the pair USD/JPY despite the US negative macroeconomic statistics. The ISM manufacturing index has shown a decline for the fourth month in a row which is the first wake-up call for the US economy. Nevertheless, traders focused their attention exclusively on the stock market dynamics. The pair fell on the yesterday’s trades.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

According to the Germany Federal Statistical Office, the January retail sales rose by 5.3% y/y, exceeding the estimates by 3.0%. Institutional investors ignored positive news that proves the bearish sentiment prevalence.


The mark of 1.1170 suspended the euro active reduction against the US dollar. The trade has moved into the low volatility framework.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1300. The approach to the level of 1.1300 may lead to a price rebound down.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Center for Macroeconomic Research Markit Economics published the UK construction sector business climate release. The index rose up to 60.1 from 59.1.

The UK 10-year government bond yields increased significantly in February relative to the US and Germany analogues which also confirms the upward trend for the pair.

The price has not reached the support level of 1.5300 to test its strength.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.

There is a non-confirmed and a week sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the resistance level of 1.5300. The upward bounce potential target are 1.5400, 1.5510.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan household expenditure negative statistics indicates to the wages increase that can cheer the bulls up for the long positions opening. Yesterday the world leading stock markets confidently increased which is also a bullish factor for the pair USD/JPY.

Before reaching the last month high that is the mark of 120.40, the price turned down for a correction. The US dollar sharp decline against the Japanese yen is not supported by the trading volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 119.20 further on we expect a growth to 120.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar strengthened after it was under. The pair EUR/USD has increased on the January Germany retail sales positive data. The total indicator came out much better than the consensus forecast and the Germans seem to be able to pull the Old World economy out of crisis. The oil prices increase also have a positive impact on the euro quotes. However the pair sharply fell after the US economic releases publication.

The pair GBP/USD was in demand amid the Markit Economics construction sector positive release. The business climate indicator in this economic sector returned to 60% which indicates the UK economy strength. At the end of the day the pair GBP/USD has fallen.

Less of all the US dollar has increased with the Japanese yen. The Japan Ministry of Health, Welfare and Employment reported that the wages level slight increased in January that cheered bears to short. The correction in the US stock market has increased pressure on the USD/JPY which fell. The pair grew after new US economic data were published.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We should pay our attention to the euro zone retail sales for January. The data came out slightly better than the forecasted medians that supported the euro. However, the pair euro/dollar encountered the bears’ resistance near the 12th figure and in this connection the quotations growth will be limited by this area.

The euro continues to fall against the US dollar amid the weak volatility and the low volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1040, the next one is at 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1040 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance levels of 1.1170.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

This week Markit Economics has reported the UK manufacturing and construction sectors growth that allows to count on the service sector business climate positive data output.

The bond market can also support the "bulls": the UK 10-year bond yields increase, comparing to the US and Germany analogues, is a positive factor for the pair GBP / USD.

Sellers lowered their price to the key level and broke down the support level of 1.5300 amid the very low volumes and the low volatility.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The level of 1.5200 false test is more likely to lead to the level of 1.5300 return.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Traders’ attention will be focused on the ISM service sector. Only the data above 57.0 will support the US dollar, otherwise we will have a small rebound downwards. The oil quotations growth will also deter "bulls" from building up long positions. In the light of this we expect the lateral trend during the day.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 120.40 and 121.60. If the price falls it will get to 118.00.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar continued its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 96.46. The pair EUR/USD set a fresh 11-year low. Investors still win back the beginning of the ECB quantitative easing program. The US and Germany 10-year bond yields once again greatly expanded and the Non-Farms release came out better then forecast that caused the pair euro/dollar quotations decrease.

The pair GBP/USD is also under pressure, but it decreased more modestly in comparison with the major currency pair. The Bank of England left the monetary policy unchanged, but the institutional investors’ bullish sentiment towards the US dollar did not allow the British pound to strengthen its position. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD has decreased.

The dollar growth was going on all fronts – the pair USD/JPY increased at the end of the day. The demand for the European risky assets and encouraged bulls to long and at the moment quotations reached the level of 120.90. However, the US jobless claims negative release cooled the bulls’ ardor but the employment rate in the US rose more than economists expected.


Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Last Friday main event was the February US labor market publication. The Non-Farm data output was better than it was forecasted. The positive publication was followed by the pair decrease. However, the US and Germany 10-year bond yields expansion will deter the bulls from the active attack.

Having consolidated below the level of 1.1040, sellers actively continued to decline the euro against the US dollar amid the increased volume. The mark of 1.0925 has been broken.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925 the next one is at 1.1040.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0790 soon.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The United States released a set of important macroeconomic statistics. With regard to the non-farm payrolls release - the data output was better than the forecasted medians. The trade balance disappointed traders with its weak figures which can cause the short positions profit-taking wave.

After the strong support level of 1.5300 breakthrough which led to the bullish trend reversal, the first target was the mark of 1.5200 that had been already tested. The pair broke through the level of 1.5100 also.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break below 1.5015 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4920 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Amid the US postive macroeconomic statistics - the bulls are going to break through the January maximum which is at the mark of 120.73. Simultaneous growth on the world leading stock markets indicates the high risk appetite which traditionally causes escape from the Japanese yen.

Buyers broke through and fixate above the last month maximum of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 121.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 122.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair dollar/franc will consolidate with a tendency to increase after it reached the 6-week high of 0.9755 then the pair increased to the level of 0.9858. Its dynamics was affected by the US non-farm employment data results. The pair is supported with the large-scale improved market’s attitude towards the dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9950, the next one is at 1.0160.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9950. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0160.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

According to the February US labor market report the US economy has created 295 thousand of new jobs in February which significantly exceeded market expectations. Moreover, the overall unemployment rate fell by 0.2% to the level of 5.5%. The positive releases encouraged traders to long with dollar.

The greenback has lost some positions. Earlier the dollar strengthened along the whole market – at the end of the day the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trade at the mark of 97.72 that has been the highest level since October 2003. The US Treasury bond yields increased up from the level of 0.64% to 0.72% on Friday - the bond market participants are guided by the Fed earlier monetary policy tightening. Fisher, one of the prominent Fed "hawks", talked about the interest rates increase at the June monetary regulator meeting last week.

The euro decline was intensified after the ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference where he specifically said that that QE may be kept and after the September 2016. The pair corrected at the yesyerday’s trades.

The pair GBP/USD decrease was intensified amid the dollar growth after the US labor market publication. Earlier the Bank of England left its monetary policy unchanged. The rates remained at the level of 0.5% while the repurchase assets volume was around £ 375 billion as it was expected. Nevertheless the pound strengthened on Monday’s trades.

The dollar rose against the yen amid the US labor market positive report. Another factor that put pressure on the yen was the fact that China had established the economic outlook in 2015 at the level of 7% which was lower than the last year forecast of 7.5%. The Prime Minister Li Keqiang stated about it at the Parliament opening session.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

After the labor market release, according to which the unemployment rate fell down to 5.5%, the expectations regarding to the Federal Reserve monetary policy only increased The euro position looks unconvincing - the US and Germany 10-year bond yields increased by 17 basis points to the level of 185.8.

The US labor market positive fundamental data just strengthened the bearish EUR/USD trend. The pair slightly corrected from the last week minimums.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925 the next one is at 1.1040.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.0925. If the price falls it will get to 1.0790 and 1.0670.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The traders’ attention will be focused on the bond market dynamics. Before the US Federal Reserve meeting which is scheduled for March 17-18, the Forex market will live with rumors about the imminent monetary policy tightening. We believe that this factor shall support the US dollar.

Sellers have broken through the two quite strong support levels: 1.5200 and 1.5100. The levels breakthrough was on the increased volume. Then the pair turned upwards and broke through the resistance level of 1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5200, 1.5300.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

According to the revised data, the Japan GDP growth was 1.5% on the annual basis that is lower than the previously reported GDP growth preliminary data that was 2.2%. The economists’ forecasted 2.2% as well. The US and Japan 10-year bond yields increased by 13 basis points which is a strong bullish factor for the US dollar.

The US dollar continues to strengthen against the Japanese yen, breaking through the strong resistance level of 120.30 amid the increased trading volume.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 121.60. After breaking 1.3665 the buyers may go to 122.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The first part of the week traders fixed the US dollar long positions profits - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 97.60. The pair EUR/USD could strengthen its position to the level of 1.0906 after significant sales, but then bears returned to the market. The German 10-year bond yields declined to the US and the UK analogues which determined the single European currency destiny.

On the contrary, at the beginning of the week the pair GBP / USD showed a growth. The pair’s sales encouraged bulls to long. The positive trend has been for two days then the pair returned to sales. The pair was trading different directed.

The negative trade balance data and the Japan GDP for the fourth quarter allowed traders to break through the resistance level of 121.60. Due to the net imports strong growth in January, we conclude that the Japan economy has been weakening, despite the strong yen devaluation which had to strengthen export. Nevertheless the pair could not fixate above the level of 121.60 and it fell below it.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We will pay attention to the bond market dynamics, namely to the 10- year government bond yields. The current US Treasuries and German bonds yields are at the level of 188 basis points which has been the highest level for the last 25 years which is a strong negative factor for the euro.

The short-term price rebound was followed by the further price decline. The potential bearish trend is still preserved despite the reduced volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0790 the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0670, 1.0550.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The dollar growth will negatively affect the "black gold" on the market. In this regard, the oil quotations reduction will further intensify pressure on the pound which is very sensitive to changes within the Brent varieties cost.

The British pound returned above the resistance level of 1.5100 after it broke through it downwards. The price rebound was at the reduced volume and reached the downtrend channel upper bound of 1.5140. but the pair could not fixate above the level of 1.5100 and is trading under it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go downward to the level of 1.4920.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The fundamental background indicates the upward trend continuation. First, the Japan trade balance negative release for January shows the overall economy and the particular industrial production weakness. The second, the foreign exchange market is now living with rumors about the Fed monetary policy tightening and this factor strongly supports the dollar.

The resistance testing of 121.60 was followed by the very low volume. The pair returned under this level.

The strong divergence on the volumes signals towards the just formed reversal. However, the medium-term bullish trend is still relevant from the technical point of view.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. As long as the price is trading above the level of 120.40 buyers remain strong. The bulls’ target is the level 121.60.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar continued its winning streak in the Forex market – the US dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 98.53. Yesterday the Germany 10-year bond yields renewed the historic low that caused the pair EUR/USD new sales wave. Now the single European currency is the most unloved investors’ asset. At the end of the day the pair euro/dollar decreased, having ended the trades at the mark of 1.0534.

The pair GBP/USD has followed its “older brother” and also finished the trading day in the negative area. The US dollar growth encouraged bears to short with Brent which contributed to the UK 10-year bond yields decrease. As a result, the trades within the pair GBP/USD ended with the price decline.

After the 122nd figure testing the traders started profit taking in the morning with the pair USD/JPY. Early in the morning Japan published the February machinery and equipment orders release which showed a growth to the level of 28.9% on the annual basis that allows us to count on the industrial production growth in March. As a result, the trading day within the pair USD/JPY was finished with the price slight increase.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro is declining lower and lower and at the current time there are no factors that can change the negative trend. The oil quotations decrease sent the Germany10-year bond yields to the fresh historic low that intensifies the Old World deflationary expectations.

There is a significant difference in the ECB and the Fed monetary policy which makes dollar a winner within the pair.

The price reduction takes place at the increased level that signals towards the increased interest in sales.

The price is finding the support at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0550 the next one is at 1.0670.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0420 soon.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

We expect soon the January UK industrial production release. The PMI manufacturing sector moderate growth indicates the data within the forecasted medians that will not provide a significant support to the British pound.

Once again the US and the UK 10-year bond yields have expanded; the Brent crude oil decreased amid the US dollar revaluation that is a bearish factor for the British pound.

The trade continues below the resistance level of 1.5015 and towards the downward channel.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the resistance level of 1.4800.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The sales wave swept across the US stock market which is a negative factor for the pair dollar / yen. The US and Japan 10-year bond yields reduction can also encourage bears to short.

The mark of 121.60 - 121.80 is the maximum in 2014. No wonder why there is a corrective price rebound downwards from this level now. It is worth noting that the price rebound was on the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong resistance. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 122.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar stopped its aggressive way against the main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 99.76. The pair EUR/USD set a fresh 12-year low and then corrected. Investors continue to get rid of the Euro amid the increasing expectations that the Fed will tighten its monetary policy that led to the USA and Germany bond yields significant expansion. Nevertheless the pair euro/dollar slightly increase at the end of the day.

The UK industrial production fell by 0.1% in January which cheered bears to short. After breaking through the support level of 1.5033, the pressure on the pound was intensified and quotations have fallen down to the level of 1.4895 after where the pair rebounded. As a result, the trading day within the pair GBP/USD finished with the prices decline.

After the technical correction the USD/JPY bulls returned to the market and opened long positions at the attractive levels. This day there was not published Japan and the US important macroeconomic statistics – traders bought the US dollar as it is now a leader in the Forex market. As a result, the trading day within the pair dollar/yen finished with the quotations growth.


Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro is heavily undervalued now. On the other hand, the United States released the retail sales report. We count on the retail sector high demand amid the labor market positive data. In the light of this we may expect the bearish trend continuation. The US and German 10-year bond yields are testing the multi-year highs.

Unilaterally, the US dollar weakened against the euro. The downtrend is followed with a slight correction amid the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670 the next one is at 1.0790.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0670 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The traders’ attention will be focused on the UK January trade balance release and the Bank of England governor’s speech. The pound strong quotations growth against the euro makes the British goods less competitive in the Old World.

On the contrary, the United States can please traders with the retail sales positive data.

The price declined amid the increased volume which led to the strong support level of 1.4920 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5015. The approach to the level of 1.5015 may lead to a price rebound down.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US positive macroeconomic statistics will encourage bulls to long. Investors have again "risk appetite" that is a negative factor for the Japanese yen.

The upward trend near the resistance level of 121.60 was stopped. The formed consolidation below the level will lead to the downward correction in the short term.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 120.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar continued to strengthen against the Swiss franc and rose above the parity value, rising close the level of1.0160.

However, the upward impulse was not strong enough and it could not move above the rate.
Additional pressure on the franc received amid the rumors that the Swiss National Bank considered the key interest rate decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9950, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the resistance at 1.0160.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0160.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar strengthened against its major competitors after a slight decrease - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 99.30. During the day the pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the US weak macroeconomic statistics. The retail sales release disappointed traders with its weak data which the profit taking. However the pair euro/dollar has again decreased at the end of the day.

The oil prices, the UK and the US bond yields decrease provoked the British pound bearish rally. The EUR/GBP "shorts" closing also added negativity to the bulls within the "cable". At the end of the day the pair GBP/USD decreased.

The pair USD/JPY has shown a side tendency. The US retail sales negative release lowered the quotations to the mark of 120.65 where bulls started to long based on the uptrend continuation. As a result, the trading day ended with the quotations growth.


Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The dollar index basket (USDX) reached the level of 100.06, indicating the steady bullish trend. However, the US retail sales weak release can cool the bears’ enthusiasm. The dollar revaluation with the low consumer demand threatens the inflation growth. In this regard, we expect the FOMC conservative rhetoric on March 18 that can trigger the mass shorts fixation with the euro/dollar.

The downtrend might be stopped at the level of 1.0500 in the short term. There was formed the upward correction to the downtrend channel upper bound of 1.0670 from this level. Then the pair rebounded downwards from the level of 1.0670 and broke through the level of 1.0550.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0420, the next one is at 1.0280. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0550 the next one is at 1.0670.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.0670 for a correction growth. If the price fixates below the support 1.0420, it may continue the downward trend in the short term.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

We expect the downward trend development. The US moderately positive macroeconomic statistics will support small demand for the US dollar. The UK 10-year bond yields are reducing in relation to its main German and the US competitors which is a bearish factor for the "cable".

The strong resistance level of 1.4800 which has recently acted in a supporting role was broken downwards amid the strong volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4920.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4800, 1.4920.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US stock market responded positively to the poor statistics as the retail sales decrease will restrain inflation and thus the Fed will not rush to tighten the monetary policy. The best example of this situation is the US Treasury bonds market - after publication the government 2-years securities fell sharply downwards which reflect expectations, concerning the Fed rate.

The whole week the trade has been held towards the sideway channel, the key level is the mark of 121.20.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 121.60 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 122.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair is under pressure from the deteriorated market’s attitude towards the dollar and demand for the Swiss currency within the growing pair franc/yen. The pair potential reduction is constrained by the Switzerland negative interest rates, the intervention threat by the Swiss National Bank with the franc sales and the correction position.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9950, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the resistance at 1.0160.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0290.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.