Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.01.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Traders ignored the US strong labor market macroeconomic statistics and showed the lack of desire to hold short positions. On the other hand, the "black gold" prices decline supports the US dollar. The German 10-year bond yields set a fresh historic low, while the US bond yields did not update the October lows of 2014.

The second half of the last week was held in the framework of upward correction within the euro/dollar. This correction continued yesterday after a slight falling.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1770, the next one is at 1.1690. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1850, the next one is at 1.1950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement potential target is 1.1850. If the price falls it will get to 1.1770.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

We do not expect the US interesting macroeconomic releases. The UK CPI release for December will be published that will show the inflationary pressure compression.

From the level of 1.5100 we could see the pound corrective growth against US dollar. The formed correction takes place amid the increased volumes. The current price is trading below the resistance level of 1.5200, to which buyers came towards the upward channel.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the level of 1.5200 breakthrough upward the way to the resistance level of 1.5300 will be opened.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The bullish trend continuation in the US stock market will maintain demand for the dollar and the Japanese corporate bonds. The Friday quotations decrease on the NYSE should be considered as a technical correction, but not as a bearish reversal. The strong employment releases point out to the strong economic growth in the 4th quarter that will support the demand for shares before the Fed meeting which will take place on January 28.

Sellers confidently broke through the upward trend line of 119.20. The trend line breakthrough was amid the increased volume and enabled sellers to reverse the medium-term bullish trend downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 117.00, 115.80.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc continues to become cheaper after the euro. Despite the slight correction the dollar keeps a positive attitude against the European currencies after the data publication, indicating the US labor market recovery continuation that in turn increases the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates in the short term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0200, the next one is at 1.0270.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0200. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0270.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

14.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar continued to strengthen against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 91.96. It is worth noting that the trading day was very poor with important macroeconomic statistics and in this regard, traders focused on the commodity market dynamics. The Brent and the WTI oil once again demonstrated their weakness at the beginning of the week that supported demand for the dollar in the first half of the day. But then traders decided to take profits and we saw a rebound within some major currency pairs.

The euro remains under the speculation pressure that the European Central Bank can implement quantitative easing in the course of the next meeting on January 22. During the weekend, the head of Italy's central bank warned that the euro zone was threatened by the deflation risk and said that the best way to deal with the looming threat was the government bonds purchase.

On Tuesday the dollar fell to the three-week low against the yen as concerns over the continuing fall in oil prices reinforce fears about its impact on global growth and inflation, boosting demand for refuge.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

14.01.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

In the absence of important macroeconomic statistics traders shall focus their attention on the commodity market dynamics. Namely the bearish oil trend strengthening pushed the eurozone into a deflation and now all traders are closely monitoring the "black gold" quotes. The nearest Brent strong support level is at the mark of 47.46. We believe bears will continue to build up short positions on the short-term euro quotations growth.

The corrective euro growth against the US dollar stopped near the downtrend channel upper bound of 1.1850. The trade towards the channel has been lasting the fifth week in a row.

The trade volumes are in the reduced zone.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1770, the next one is at 1.1690. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1850, the next one is at 1.1950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the falling will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1690.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The National statistics office shall report about the December inflation. Traditionally, we expect the retail prices growth amid the increasing consumer activity during the Christmas period. Reducing unemployment and wage growth also indicates the personal consumption increase that boosts the CPI growth.

The pound is correcting against the US dollar amid the low volatility and low volumes. As a result correction moves towards the upward channel.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5200 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5300.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan will publish the payment balance. In November the Bank of Japan reported the foreign exchange reserves increase that indicates the surplus growth. Also this month there was a strong inflow of foreign investment into the stock market that also points to the positive data output.

After the upper trend line 119.20 break the two downward channels on the daily chart were formed.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 118.00, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 117.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair dollar/franc will trade with a tendency to decrease, being under the demand pressure for the franc within the falling pairs AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF and CAD/CHF, as a result of oil prices falling a demand for commodity currencies have declined.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0200, the next one is at 1.0270.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0270.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was in demand against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 92.27. During the day the pair EUR/USD remained under pressure amid the "black gold" prices falling. During the day the Brent oil set a fresh low that supported a demand for the dollar.

The UK inflation release disappointed traders - the December CPI fell down to 0.5% in annual terms that is the lowest level since May 2000. The first inflationary pressure compression is caused by the lower oil price. As a result the pair GBP/USD showed a decline to the mark of 1.5076 after which traders took profits and we saw a technical rebound.

On Tuesday the pair USD/JPY took a ride on a roller coaster. At the beginning of the trading day Japan released the November positive payment balance that encouraged bears for short positions opening. At the moment the price fell to the mark of 117.75 where the bulls began to form "longs". The growth in the Tokyo stock market supported a demand for the US dollar and during the European session 118.84. However, after the US stock market sales, the pair dollar/yen was able to update the local lows.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.01.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro zone shall publish the November industrial production release. The currency bloc leading economies (France and Germany) have already reported about the manufacturing sector slowdown. The Macroeconomic Research Center Markit Economics recorded the Manufacturing PMI index decrease to the level of 50.1% that is the lowest level since June 2013. Now we can expect the data worse than the consensus forecast that will put pressure on the euro.

The continued price consolidation near 1.1850 was the signal for the bearish trend continuation. The prices rebound fell down to the low near 1.1770 last week. We observe here a consolidation. The trade volumes are in a decrease zone.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1770, the next one is at 1.1690. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1850, the next one is at 1.1950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1850 soon. The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.1690

Pound (GBP)

General overview

We can expect the negative comments about the UK inflation in the short term. Inflation in the United Kingdom is significantly deviated from the target rate of 2% and now the head of the Bank of England will have to explain it to the Minister of Finance.

Buyers came to the level of 1.5200 towards the upward channel. The level testing was followed by the rebound with the following channel lower bound 1.5100 breakthrough. The pair increased from this level and broke through the resistance level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.

The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5300. We do not exclude the falls to 1.5015.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US retail sales release is able to demonstrate growth and exit within the consensus. The hourly wages growth by 0.2% in November can spur demand in the Christmas period. The consumer confidence positive releases from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan confirmed the positive trend.

There was a strong support level of 117.00 breakthrough. Due to the formed breakthrough bears strengthened their positions and continued the trade towards the downward channel.

The price is finding the first support at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 115.80.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc fell against the dollar. The dollar index reached almost the 10year peak on speculations that the Federal Reserve will raise its key rate this year.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0200, the next one is at 1.0270.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0270.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was trading different directed against its main competitors. During the day the EUR/USD showed a high volatility. The EU court issued a verdict on the European Stability Mechanism legality that caused the euro sales as the ECB can now safely run the QE program.

During the day the pair GBP/USD enjoyed moderate demand amid the strong EUR/GBP cross-rate reduction as well as the US weak statistics. The strong bearish sentiment within the single European currency put pressure not only on the euro/dollar, but also on the euro/pound cross-rate that in its turn supported the demand for the British pound. The December retail sector sales rate decreased by 0.9%, the November report was also revised towards reduction.

The pair USD/JPY showed the sales decline amid the Tokyo stock exchange sales, but bulls returned to the market and began to open long positions. The US retail sales negative report sent the pair dollar/yen to 116.30.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.01.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The pair EUR/USD set a new multi-year low, reaching the level of 1.1590 after the European Court advisor’s announcement that the quantitative easing program can be carried out to the full extent.

Investors' attention is drawn to the Germany's GDP data publication for 2014. The Germany's GDP growth was 1.5% in 2014. In Germany consumer activity increased by 1.1% in 2014, but export volumes increased by 3.7%.

The pair EUR/USD was consolidating at the support level of 1.1770. Then it fell and broke the support levels of 1.1770 and 1.1690 and decreased to the level of 1.1590.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1590, the next one is at 1.1520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1690, the next one is at 1.1770.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The seller need to break below 1.1590 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.1520 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound can not demonstrate its power against its US counterpart.

The United States will publish the producer price index release, from which it is difficult to expect surprises due to strong commodity market sales that will support the pound.

The EUR/GBP quotations growth amid the Germany negative macroeconomic statistics will also support the British pound.

The pair GBP/USD broke through but could not fixed above the resistance level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair may go to 1.5100 soon. The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5300, 1.5400.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

On the one hand, the US negative macroeconomic statistics will support the Japanese yen. On the other hand, the current levels already look attractive for opening long positions, based on the long-term upward trend continuation.

The pair USD/JPY rebounded from the strong resistance level of 118.00 downwards. The pair broke through the support level of 117.00.

The price is finding the first support at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 115.80 may lead to a price consolidation.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.01.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The pair EUR/USD set a new multi-year low, reaching the level of 1.1590 after the European Court advisor’s announcement that the quantitative easing program can be carried out to the full extent.

Investors' attention is drawn to the Germany's GDP data publication for 2014. The Germany's GDP growth was 1.5% in 2014. In Germany consumer activity increased by 1.1% in 2014, but export volumes increased by 3.7%.

The pair EUR/USD was consolidating at the support level of 1.1770. Then it fell and broke the support levels of 1.1770 and 1.1690 and decreased to the level of 1.1590.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1590, the next one is at 1.1520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1690, the next one is at 1.1770.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The seller need to break below 1.1590 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.1520 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound can not demonstrate its power against its US counterpart.

The United States will publish the producer price index release, from which it is difficult to expect surprises due to strong commodity market sales that will support the pound.

The EUR/GBP quotations growth amid the Germany negative macroeconomic statistics will also support the British pound.

The pair GBP/USD broke through but could not fixed above the resistance level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair may go to 1.5100 soon. The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5300, 1.5400.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

On the one hand, the US negative macroeconomic statistics will support the Japanese yen. On the other hand, the current levels already look attractive for opening long positions, based on the long-term upward trend continuation.

The pair USD/JPY rebounded from the strong resistance level of 118.00 downwards. The pair broke through the support level of 117.00.

The price is finding the first support at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 115.80 may lead to a price consolidation.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was a mixed sentiment and tendency yesterday. The ZEW Institute published the Germany business environment positive release, still we did not see a strong demand for the euro. At the moment quotations reached the level of 1.1675 after which there was a technical rebound, indicating the traders’ reluctance to open long positions.

On the contrary, the pair GBP/USD showed a strong growth. However, the "cable" reached the level of 1.5060 amid the lower energy prices. But then, bears decided to take profits on short positions which allowed the pound to regain some lost ground. Then the pair fell again.

The pair USD/JPY is in a steady demand. The moderate oil prices decline that we see from the beginning of the trading week supports the dollar as the commodity assets prices denominated in the US dollar. Some traders believe that the Bank of Japan can declare the incentive program increase and against this background "longs" are more preferable.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.01.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The ZEW institute Germany business climate positive release shows the strong euro sellers presence. This factor confirms the negative expectations for the pair. It is now extremely dangerous to open long positions. Today on January 22 the ECB will announce the monetary policy meeting results.

The downward trend moved within a lateral corridor near the levels of 1.1650 - 1.1540. But at the same time, the trade is still towards the downward channel.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1520, the next one is at 1.1400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1590, the next one is at 1.1690.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1520 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.1400, 1.1300.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Bank of England monetary policy last meeting minutes is in the center of traders’ attention. On the one hand, the UK inflationary pressure compression because of the lower hydrocarbon prices indicates the monetary authorities negative expectations in the short term. On the other hand, the unemployment reduction and the wage growth will increase private consumption in the long term that will spur the CPI growth.

Having not reached the support level of 1.5015, the pound turned upwards towards the correction and rose to the level of 1.5200. The pair fell from this level and tested the support level of 1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5300, 1.5400.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The next Japanese monetary regulator meeting shall not support the national currency. The recent key macroeconomic indicators do not indicate the negative trend breakthrough. Industrial production continues to show its weakness.

The bulls’ advantage over bears was lost by the price return into the downward channel. Moreover, sellers turned back the price beyond the support level of 118.00.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 115.80 soon.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The US dollar traded rather moderately against the Swiss franc on speculations that the Fed was going to raise interest rates while other major central banks are planning to implement stimulating measures for economic growth and inflation recovery.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8740, the next one is at 0.8540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8940, the next one is at 0.9150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.8540. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.8340.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar continued to rise against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 93.04. The traders’ attention was focused on the ECB meeting. The pair EUR/USD sharply fell.

On Wednesday the pound was under attack after the MPC last meeting minutes publication. The monetary regulator pointed out to the CPI decrease continuation to zero in the 1st quarter. The number of "hawks" reduced to zero in the Bank of England – McCafferty and Weale no longer vote for the interest rates increase. The Central Bank economists also reported the downside risks growth for the Eurozone economy which will act as a deterrent for the UK economic growth.

Yesterday the pair USD/JPY demonstrated its high volatility. And it is not surprising –the Bank of Japan announced the monetary policy meeting results. Monetary authorities lowered the inflation forecast and the GDP for the fiscal year of 2015. The incentive program also has not undergone any revision, despite the expectations of volume incentives increase by some Wall Street economists.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.01.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The ECB announced its decision about the stimulating measures. They launched the QE program. The European Central Bank shall begin to buy the secondary market assets worth up to 60 billion euros a month in March 2015, and it will continue to improve the stability of inflation or to the end of September 2016.

The sixth week in a row the euro is declining against the US dollar towards the downward channel. Buyers tried to break through the channel upper bound of 1.1590 – but this attempt was unsuccessful. The pair fell and broke the support levels of 1.1520 and 1.1400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1300, 1.1170.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The ECB meeting results announcement is in the center of traders’ attention. Last year when the Eurozone monetary authorities declared the monetary policy easing- the British pound declined after its European counterparts.

The current price was trading within the rectangle levels of 1.5200 - 1.5050. Its rebound from the resistance level of 1.5200 enabled sellers to come up to the support level of 1.5100. This support was broken down and the support level of 1.5015 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5015, it may consolidate in the short term. Then the pair can grow. The potential growth target is 1.5200.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan negative forecasts for the fiscal year of 2015 call into question the further Japanese yen growth. Today in the absence of Japan and the US important macroeconomic statistics publication traders will focus their attention on the global stock market dynamics.

After the prices rebound downwards below the support level of 118.00 there was a new downward channel formed. The trade volumes are in the decrease zone. Now the pair is trading above the level of 118.00.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The upward correction potential target is 119.20. If the price falls it will get to 117.00, 115.80.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

According to the ZEW the attitude towards the franc declined amid the falling Switzerland economic sentiment index for January - Credit Suisse (-4.9 to -10.8 from December). Potential pair reduction is also constrained by the positive market attitude towards the dollar, by the Switzerland negative interest rates and the intervention threat by the Swiss National Bank with the franc sales.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8540, the next one is at 0.8340. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8740, the next one is at 0.8940.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.8540. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.8340.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The main last week event was the ECB's monetary policy meeting results announcement. There was only one question on the agenda - what the amount of incentives would be? During the week there were various rumors - the numbers ranged from 500 billion euro to $ 1 trillion euro. Those traders who expected the maximum level turned out to be right.

The Eurozone monetary regulator decided to purchase assets in the amount of 60 billion euro starting with this year March. Thus, the ECB balance will be increased by 1.08 trillion euro till September 1, 2016. Financial markets have reacted to the news as it was forecasted: the euro, the pound and the Japanese yen came under a sales wave. Stock markets, on the contrary, reacted positively to the QE introduction by the Eurozone monetary authorities.

Last week till its decline the pound was supported by the unexpectedly strong data and finally grew. The UK retail sales rose up by 0.4% m / m in December 2014 while analysts forecasted a decline by 0.6%. The renewed wages growth has a positive impact on consumer sentiment and spending that helps to offset the negative impact on the economy from the euro zone part which is experiencing deflation and growth slowdown.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.01.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The ECB announced all key milestones and now we can expect the moderate euro quotations decline before the Federal Reserve meeting on January 28. The Eurozone manufacturing sector business activity index rose to the level of 51 in January compared to 50.6 in December. These data coincided with economists' forecasts.

The rebound from the upper channel bound of 1.1590 was on the increased volume and enabled sellers to break through the support levels of 1.1520, 1.1400 and 1.1300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1040 and 1.0925 soon.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

According to the data released by the UK National Statistics Office, the retail sales volume including the fuel costs increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis in December, compared with a growth by 1.6% recorded in November. After the ECB's decision to launch the QE from March 1 there was a strong demand for the US dollar.

Sellers have strengthened the downward trend, breaking through and consolidating below the strong support level of 1.5015.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4920, 1.4800.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Today Japan and the United States will not please traders with interesting macroeconomic releases and in this regard, all traders’ attention will be focused on the stock markets dynamics. The QE program launching by the European Central Bank supported demand for risky assets.

The upward correction is still preserved after rebound from the support near 115.80 with this instrument. Before reaching the downward channel upper bound of 119.20, the price stopped above 118.00, but could not fixate there and fell below.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect a growth towards 119.20 further on we expect the fall to 115.80.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar stopped its winning streak. Earlier the index dollar basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.00. The ECB large-scale incentives program led to the euro considerable sales and after the German manufacturing sector business climate negative release the bearish EUR/USD trend has accelerated. The Greece elections results also had a negative impact on the euro exchange rate. Nevertheless the pair slightly increased on Monday.

The pair GBP/USD was not able to get support from the UK sudden strong retail sales release. The retail sales rose by 0.4% in December while the consensus forecast predicted its growth by 0.6%. The average earnings growth and the unemployment reduction have a positive impact on the UK consumers. However, despite this positive factor - the British pound was hardly able to demonstrate its growth near the resistance level of 1.5100 which indicates the strong sellers’ presence that holds back the bulls’ onslaught.

After the three days growth in the world's leading stock markets bulls took profits on the long positions that supported demand for the "safe haven" yen. It should also be noted that there was demand for the US high-tech assets which is a positive factor for the stock market.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.01.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The new trading week began with a gap fallowed by a slight correction. The decrease was amid the parliamentary elections were held on Sunday in Greece. The Athens radical policy change is able to cause severe volatility and hurt the euro. In the first half of the day the traders ‘attention will be focused on the Germany business climate publication from the IFO institute.

There was the downward channel lower bound breakthrough near 1.1400. The fact that the price left the channel limits, where it has been for six weeks, indicates the bearish trend strengthening. The pair tested the level of 1.1170 and rebounded upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1300 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support levels of 1.1170, 1.1040.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The traders ‘disregard towards the UK retail sales positive release points out to the strong bearish trend. Despite the fact that quarterly sales showed maximum growth over the past 12 years - the British pound was hardly able to consolidate near the resistance level of 1.5100.

There was the level breakthrough of 1.5100 which currently stands as the strong resistance. It is worth noting that the level breakthrough of 1.5100 was amid the low volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first targets are the levels of 1.5200 and 1.5300.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The December Japan trade balance shall not support bears very much. The Japanese yen devaluation and the seasonal factor indicate the trade deficit reduction. However, the industrial production weakness cannot allow us to rely on the strong export growth. In this regard, the data can be expected at the level of consensus forecast.

There was the resistance level of 118.00 breakthrough which is now followed by the growing prices.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 119.20. Having tested the first target the price might go downwards to 117.00.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD opened the trading week with a gap downwards amid the Greece news about the Radical Left Coalition victory. But then traders quickly leveled the gap and the European trades have already started from a blank slate. Traders decided to take profits on the short positions as the single European currency was at the 11-year low. The pair rose from this level.

GBP/USD traders closed decided to take profit as well. Traders reacted very emotionally to the WSJ interview by the Bank of England Forbes representative who pointed out the need to tighten monetary policy. Against this background, bulls were able to break through the strong resistance level of 1.5100 and to move the price to the level of 1.5200 where it stabilized.

The December Japan positive trade balance release failed to provide a firm support for the Japanese yen - negative balance amounted to 660.7 billion yen in December that came out better than traders had expected. At the moment the pair USD/JPY reached the level of 117.28, then bulls returned to the market and began to build up long positions at the attractive levels. Confident demand on the world's leading stock markets has supported bulls. Nevertheless, the pair could not fixate above the level of 118.00.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.01.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We expect the pair EUR/GBP growth amid the UK 4th quarter weak GDP report which in turn will have a positive impact on the pair euro/dollar. While the US durable goods orders release can come out worse than the forecasted medians.

We should not rely on the euro strong growth in terms of deflation and increased political risks that are coming from Greece.

The mark of 1.1170 was the starting point for the upward correction which is not supported by the trade volumes now.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.1520. Having tested this target the price might go downwards to 1.1300.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

All traders’ attention will be focused on the 4th quarter UK GDP release. On the one hand, the manufacturing and service sector slowdown points out to the weak report. On the other hand, the average earnings growth and the unemployment reduction spurred private consumption. The Bank of England economists expect growth by 0.6%.

Buyers correct the price upwards amid the lower volumes. There is the strong resistance level of 1.5100 breakthrough and the level of 1.5200 testing amid the formed correction.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The level of 1.5200 test may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5015, 1.4920.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Traders shall focus their attention on the stock markets dynamics amid the absence of Japan interesting macroeconomic releases. Yesterday the US, Asian and the European equity were steadily growing, indicating demand for risky assets.

The flat within a rectangular corridor continues. The price is trading around the level of 118.00 for the two last weeks.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

There are the low trading volumes. The strong support level 117.00 test could be followed by a consolidation.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar lost some ground against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 94.20. The pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the US durable goods orders negative macroeconomic statistics. The sales declined by 3.4% in December while the market expected growth by 0.6%. We should mention the fact that traders ignored the US strong consumer confidence and new home sales data. Apparently, traders consider that the euro is strongly oversold and liquidated short positions.

The UK weak GDP data for the 4th quarter could not encourage bears to open the large number of short positions. The final indicator was 0.5% that is slightly below the traders’ expectations. The manufacturing sector and the service sector weakness have had a significant negative impact on the UK economic growth.

The pair USD/JPY was under pressure amid the profit-taking on global stock markets long positions. However, after the US positive new buildings sales and consumer confidence releases we saw steady demand for the US dollar. It is worth noting the Conference Board report which showed the private consumption growth up to the level of 102.9 p. in January. Nevertheless the pair slightly fell at the end of the trades, but did not exit the range.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.01.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Undoubtedly, this week the key event is the US Federal Reserve meeting. The US 10-year bond yields are at the level of 1.81%, indicating the inflation reduction in the short term.

The euro is consolidating after it was actively correcting against the US dollar, rebounding from the support level of 1.1170. The formed price increase is not supported by the trade volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1400 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support levels of 1.1300, 1.1170.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

Traders ignored the UK weak economic growth release which jeopardizes the bearish trend development. In this regard, the statements made by the Fed last night will determine the pair GBP/USD future dynamics.

The support level of 1.5015 stopped the pound downward trend. The formed correction will enable buyers to raise the price to the daily resistance level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.5200 breakthrough upward the way to the support 1.5300 will be opened.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Quotations decline below the level of 118.00 should be used to build up long positions. The commodity market sales with the relatively low wages growth rate in 2014 indicate the inflationary pressure compression in the United States for the first quarter of this year.

Having not reached the level of 119.20, the correctional price growth stopped above the level of 118.00, going to a consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement potential target is 119.20. If the price falls it will get to 115.80.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.