Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was the central event of the week - the US Federal Reserve announced the monetary policy meeting results. In anticipation of this event the major pairs consolidated as traders refrained from active trading. The monetary regulator pointed out to the fact that we should not expect the first rate hike within the federal funds till June. The short-term inflation forecasts have been revised downwards, it was noted the labor market rapid recovery. The FOMC representatives consider the energy prices decrease as a favorable factor for the household expenditure increase that will maintain high economic growth. It should also be noted that the decision to leave interest rates unchanged was unanimous while the FOMC three representatives voted for monetary policy tightening at the meeting in December 2014.

Despite the Fed conservative rhetoric, traders were in no hurry to liquidate long positions within the US dollar. The dollar significantly increased only against the pound.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.01.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

On the one hand, the Fed has kept the promise of "patience" in relation to the rates increase. This factor is negative for the US dollar. On the other hand, the euro area inflation expectations are much worse than the UK ones. The main event of the day will be the Germany consumer price index data release.

Buyers reached the level of 1.1400 amid the reduced volume.

The price consolidation near the resistance level of 1.1300 is more likely to serve as a signal for the upward correction reversal.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1170 soon.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

Today the UK will not please traders with the positive data and in this regard we can expect the side trend continuation during the day. The fundamental background remains mixed - the FOMC negative pigeon rhetoric for the dollar and the Brent inability to consolidate above the psychological level of $ 50 put pressure on the British pound.

Two daily correctional pound growth was stopped by the downtrend channel upper bound of 1.5200. The upper bound testing resulted led to the continued consolidation followed by the decrease under the level of 1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5015 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4920.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Traders shall focus their attention on the stock market dynamics amid the Japan and the US important macroeconomic statistics. The Fed “patience” lowered the two-year Treasury bond yields below 0.5% and now we can expect the upward trend development.

Traders have been testing the strong resistance level of 118.00 for five consecutive days. The short-term breaks are followed by the constant price rebounds downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 118.00 breakthrough down the way to the supports 117.00, 115.80 will be opened.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar looked quite cheerful amid its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 94.82. The pair EUR/USD has enjoyed moderate demand despite the Eurozone negative statistics. The Germany CPI release pointed out that the Old World largest economy came into deflation. This report indicates that we should not expect pleasant surprises on the Eurozone CPI tomorrow. At the moment the quotes reached the level of 1.1367 after which there was a technical rebound.

After the US positive jobless claims release - bears made a powerful attack on the pair GBP/USD. The previous week figure exceeded the traders’ expectations by 43 thousand that allows to count on the labor market positive data release at the beginning of the week. The CRB commodity index has once again showed a downward trend which also supported demand for the US dollar. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD decreased.

Despite the demand for the US corporate bonds with the positive overseas jobless claims release for the last week earlier encouraged bulls cheered for the "longs" opening within the pair USD/JPY, during the day traders systematically built up short positions that allowed to finish the trading day with the quotations decrease.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.02.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Germany came into deflation and now the euro bulls remained without support. Today it is difficult to expect surprises from the Eurozone CPI release. Last week the ECB President Mario Draghi signaled about the risk balance for the first quarter of 2015 shifted towards the negative direction.

The euro corrective rise from the support level of 1.1170 turned into the flat framework of 1.1385 - 1.1275. The trade is at the low volumes, still the pair is heading towards the downward channel.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1400 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support levels of 1.1170, 1.1040.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The main event of the day is the 4th quarter US GDP release. All macroeconomic releases from October to December showed the US economic growth high rate that allows us to rely on the data release better than the consensus forecast. Last week we received the UK GDP data and the quarterly growth by 0.5% will be quite weak amid the US strong growth.

The pound corrective growth was stopped by the mark of 1.5200. The mark testing was followed by the consolidation with the following rebounds downwards.

The target has already been achieved by the support level of 1.5100 breakthrough, and the level of 1.5015 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 1.4920 and 1.4800 where the pair may stop, further on we expect a consolidation.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The traders’ attention will be focused on the Japan inflation release. The strong energy prices decline with the weak consumer demand does not allow us to count on the positive news.

The sellers reduced the price to the strong support level of 117.00 amid the very low volume that has already turned the downward trend upwards for four times.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The level of 117.00 retest is more likely to lead to a consolidation. Then we expect the upward movement.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc stopped to suffer losses and started a consolidation while the dollar index has reached the maximum level for the last 10 years amid expectations that the Fed was the only major central bank which was ready to raise interest rates.

Additional support for the US dollar caused the US labor market release. The jobless claims have reached the 15 years low.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9340. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9540.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar continued to strengthen against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 94.87. During the day the pair EUR/USD was under pressure after the euro area weak inflation data. According to the preliminary estimates the CPI decline has accelerated and the Old World deflationary disease is developing at full speed. As a result, the trade within the euro/dollar finished with the quotations slight increase in the consolidation range.

The UK 10- year bond yields sharp decline acted as a major factor for the British pound sales against the US dollar. The Gilts yields installed a fresh 5-year minimum that is a bearish factor for the pair GBP/USD. Even the US GDP moderately negative data for the 4th quarter was unable to reverse the negative trend. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had decreased.

The Japan moderate positive macroeconomic statistics encouraged bears to open the "shorts". The inflation was 0.1% in December that came better than forecasted medians, despite the household expenditure negative release. Traders ignored the personal consumption weak data and focused their attention on the CPI report. The US GDP strong release was unable to support bulls and they were disappointed. Growth in the 4th quarter amounted to 2.6% instead of the expected growth by 3%. Pressure on the dollar was growing and finally the trading day ended with the quotations decrease.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.02.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The United States will publish the manufacturing sector ISM report. The low demand for the commodity market makes us think that we will get the release within the forecasted medians. In this regard, the US dollar bulls will remain without strengths and we can expect the moderate demand for the single European currency.

The most part of the last week the trade was within the flat after a slight upward correction to the support level of 1.1170. The flat continued on Monday.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The level of 1.1400 test is more likely to lead to the support levels of 1.1300, 1.1170 return.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK manufacturing sector last 2014 quarter was very weak and amid the euro zone economy weakness it is difficult to expect positive changes. We can expect the news slightly worse than the forecast which will have some pressure on the British pound.

There was a short-term resistance level of 1.5100 testing amid the low volumes. The level testing was followed by the price rebound downwards with the following testing and fixating above the support near 1.5015.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.5200. The strong resistance level 1.5200 test will be followed by a consolidation.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

In the absence of important macroeconomic statistics, the traders’ attention will be focused on the Japanese stock market dynamics. The US GDP moderately negative release for the fourth quarter will encourage bears to open short positions on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Market. We can expect the ISM index within the forecasted medians that cannot cause strong reaction from the traders’ part.

The trading week opening within this instrument was followed by a gap. Due to the price gap sellers tested the support the level of 117.00, but they could not consolidate under this level. Within two hours the gap was closed.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 117.00 may lead to a price rebound up. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 118.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc fell after the central bank let the exchange rate become free in mid-January. The reason for the last week decrease caused the comments by Jean-Pierre Danthine, the Swiss central bank vice-president that the regulator was ready for intervention.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

During the day the pair EUR/USD enjoyed a demand amid the US negative macroeconomic statistics. The ISM manufacturing index showed decline to the level of 53.5 in January which is the lowest level since March 2013. The manufacturing sector weakness is a negative factor for the economic growth and against this background traders get rid of the US dollar.

The UK moderately positive manufacturing PMI was able to support the GBP/USD bulls. The UK 10-year bond yields increase negates all the traders’ efforts who rely on the strong uptrend. Moreover, the British Gilts and the German Bund bond yields enhances demand for the pair which also puts pressure on the British pound. Nevertheless the pound grew amid the dollar weakness.

The US ISM manufacturing sector weak release encouraged bears to short with USD/JPY. The US industry business activity has been declining for two consecutive months which is the first wake-up call. It should also be noted the manufacturing sector employment decline according to the ISM. The negative background caused not only the US dollar decrease, but also hit the US stock market - leading indices have updated the last week minimum values.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.02.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

During the day the pair can show a moderate effect amid the two key factors. Firstly, during the two days we have seen the "black gold" growth which is a negative factor for the US dollar. Secondly, the UK and German 10-year bond yields reduction encouraged bulls to long which will also support the single European currency.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1520, the next one is at 1.1590.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the resistance level of 1.1590.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

Markit Economics will publish the UK second release – for this time we will obtain the construction sector data. On the one hand, the Bank of England has reported about the approved mortgage applications number increase in December. The UK average earnings growth has a positive impact on the consumer activity. On the other hand, the mortgage loans volume has been declining for five consecutive months, according to the British Bankers' Association that the construction industry decrease cannot allow us to count on the strong data release.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5300.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

In the absence of any important macroeconomic statistics we should expect the moderate upward trend. After the January sales in the US stock markets we can expect the bulls’ return. The current levels are
attractive for medium-term positions and this factor will support demand for the pair.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential increase target is the resistance level of 118.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pressure on the Swiss franc was caused by the SNB messages that the SNB would informally keep
the franc against the euro within a specific corridor.

The US dollar was supported by the US labor market report. Nevertheless the franc slightly strengthened at the end of the day.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9340. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9340.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The dollar exchange rate stabilized after the most powerful decrease for the last year that was caused by the commodity producing countries currency growth. The day was not rich with important macroeconomic statistics that suggests the beginning of the global dollar correction. We should also mention the bullish rally in two key commodity markets assets: copper increased by 3.8%, the Brent oil rose up by 4.7%. At the same time, it is more difficult for the Fed officials to ignore external factors and other central banks actions.

The euro is decreasing against the dollar after a significant increase during the previous session, supported by hopes for the Greek debt situation compromise. The Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras assured international lenders that he did not want to create conflicts in Europe.

The pound also strengthened against the dollar. The trend is developing in favor of the pound on the bond market: the UK 10-year bond yields are growing in relation to the US and German securities which is a bullish factor.

The dollar has grown against the yen due to the US and the Japanese stock market bond yields increase.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.02.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The first medium-term correction phase is in the midst of its peak and now it is fatal to open the "shorts" within the euro. The traders’ attention will be focused on the December euro zone retail sales publication. The retail sector sales decrease was traditionally observed in the Old World last month, but the Germany and France consumer spending growth cannot allow us to count on the weak data.

The seven week trading session downward channel was broken through upwards. The level breakthrough of 1.1400 was at the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1520, the next one is at 1.1590.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will consolidate around the level of 1.1300.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

Markit Economics will publish the UK service sector business climate data. The unemployment reduction with the UK average wage increase can allow us to count on the index growth compared to the previous month. In this regard, the British pound can get some support.

The support level of 1.5015 stopped the pound decline against the US dollar for the second time. The short-term level testing was followed by the price upward rebound amid the increased trading volumes. The resistance levels of 1.5100 and 1.5200 were broken.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the resistance at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.5300.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Despite the fact that we saw a steady growth in the world's leading stock markets which is a positive factor for the pair dollar/yen. However, the US dollar global correction with the service sector moderately negative ISM release will put pressure on bulls.

The strong support level of 117.00 breakthrough was not so long. Buyers bought out the price, returning the trade above the level of 117.00 which still plays the role of a reference support.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The upward correction target is the level of 118.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc has grown due to the dollar general decline against other major currencies. The statistics played a significant role in it. The US factory orders data showed a decline by 3.4% m/m in December during the session.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the pair EUR/USD showed a growth after a moderate decline - bulls took profits on the long positions after this week strong growth. Macroeconomic data showed a mixed background – the euro zone unemployment positive release was replaced by the US service sector ISM business activity positive one.

The sales within the pair EUR/GBP cross-rate put pressure on the euro after the UK positive publication. Nevertheless the pair grew after a decrease.

Yesterday the British pound enjoyed a steady demand. The UK services sector PMI index showed a growth to the level of 57.2%. It is also worth noting that the British indicator was able to bypass the same US indicator in January despite the fact that the ISM has reported the non-productive sphere increase. Against this positive background, the pair GBP/USD rose up at the end of the day.

The US macroeconomic statistics which was published on Wednesday can be regarded as negative. The ADP and ISM employment releases came out worse than the forecasted medians that with the manufacturing sector employment decrease cannot allow us to count on strong non-farm data output. The services sector business activity showed growth compared to the previous month, but the industrial sector weakness signals about the economic growth slowdown. Against this background, bears opened short positions within the pair USD/JPY that caused the quotations decrease. The pair increased at the end of the trading day.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.02.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The December US trade balance can disappointed traders with its weak data. First, the dollar revaluation makes the US goods less competitive which is a negative factor for exports. Second, we observed the traditional trade deficit increase in December. Against this background, we can expect the data slightly worse than the forecasted medians.

After buyers broke through the level of 1.1400 we expected a good corrective wave upwards within the euro. However, the reverse support level breakthrough of 1.1400 led to the correction completion. After the level of 1.1300 testing the pair rebounded upwards and closed the trades above the level of 1.1400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1520, the next one is at 1.1590.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Daed Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two support levels of: 1.1400, 1.1300, 1.1170.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

Despite the UK rapid inflation decline – we should not expect surprises from the Bank of England in terms of monetary policy changes. All the negative predictions have already been laid in the current market price and against this background the traders’ attention will be focused on the US statistics.

The resistance level of 1.5200 was tested. The test led to the level breakthrough was followed by the rapid price growth. The resistance level of 1.5300 was broken upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5400. After breaking 1.5400 the buyers may go to 1.5510.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US moderately negative macroeconomic trade balance statistics with the technical correction which we observe in the USDX dollar index shows the bearish sentiment predominance. However, the economic slowdown in Japan as well as the world's leading stock markets growth will not allow the yen to strengthen significantly.

The price movement is changeable at the level of 117.00 which first makes its way downwards and then upwards. During the breaks the trade volumes are in the reduced zone.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1400 may lead to a price consolidation.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc temporarily strengthened against the dollar after the relatively weak ADP report publication. The ADP report traditionally helps to correct expectations for Friday's employment report.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9340. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9540.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

All traders’ attention was focused on the UK macroeconomic statistics. The January labor market release pleased investors with its positive data. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 257 thousand that exceeded the traders’ expectations by 23 thousand. It will also possible the average hourly wage increase by 0.5% which will spur private consumption and will have a positive impact on the US economic growth. Against this positive background, traders once again started to increase long positions within the US dollar and we have seen the dollar rapid quotations growth. Then there was a consolidation in the majors pairs.

The present-day political news could support the US dollar - the Fed representatives Plosser and Lockhart gave "hawkish" tone speeches which can be judged according to the words about the unemployment increase that will not cause anxiety and the US CB is approaching the moment when it will be difficult to justify keeping interest rates at the same level.

The Bank of Japan continues to show confidence in the inflation targets achievement in 2015. The Central Bank will not intend to use the additional easing measures if there is the inflation decrease because of the falling oil prices. According to the Bank of Japan representative Iwate, the trending prices level shows a steady growth which will lead the inflation to the target level of 2% in 2015 fiscal year. At the same time, he believes that the oil prices decline complicates the Central Bank efforts in relation to the increasing inflation level and will delay this target implementation.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.02.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

It should be highlighted the Germany trade balance data publication. The euro devaluation with the industrial production moderate increase indicates the data output within the forecasted medians.

Sellers have broken through the support level of 1.1400 for the second time. The pair stopped at the support level of 1.1300 where pair is consolidating.

The support level breakthrough of 1.1400 was followed by the price decrease to the mark of 1.1300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.1170 breakthrough down the way to the support level of 1.1040 will be opened.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

Traders will take a break to assess the future trends perspectives amid the absence of the UK and the US important macroeconomic statistics. The US labor market positive data can spur demand for the US dollar. The UK 10-year bond yields are growing in relation to the US and German securities which is a bullish factor.

The key resistance of 1.5300 is still relevant. Buyers have tried to test this mark, but without subsequent level breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can breakthrough to the support level of 1.5200. After breaking 1.5200 the pair may go to 1.5100.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan Ministry of Finance published the current account surplus data in December which amounted to 187.2 billion yen. The growth rate has not met analysts' forecasts that amounted to 355.8 billion yen and were lower than in November when the surplus amounted to 433.0 billion yen. The trade balance deficit reached 395.6 billion yen, beating analysts' expectations.

There was a rebound from the support level of 117.00. The price growth fell to 119.20. The pair rebounded downwards from this level. The trade volumes are in reduced zone.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the consolidation will be continued now. The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 118.00, 117.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc fell slightly amid the dollar growth. The US dollar compensated losses incurred at the beginning of the week after the unexpectedly US labor market strong report publication. The number of new jobs was 257K in January after 252K and the unemployment rate was *5.7% in January against 5.6%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair is consolidating now. We should wait till the pair will came out of the flat.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD was able to compensate some lost ground amid the Germany positive trade balance for December. The index went out significantly better than the forecasted medians that encouraged bulls to long. As a result, the trading day the pair euro/dollar finished with a growth after a slight decrease.

During the day the pair GBP/USD showed a lateral trend in the absence of the UK and the US important macroeconomic statistics. The UK and the US 10-year bond yields expansion encouraged bears to short and at the moment the price reached the level of 1.5200 after which there was a technical rebound upwards.

Yesterday there was a downward trend on the world's leading stock markets that had a negative impact on the USD/JPY. Traders fixed profits on the long positions after the rapid Friday growth. Nevertheless, the pair dollar/yen recovered lost positions after a decrease.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.02.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

In the absence important macroeconomic statistics traders shall focus their attention on the bond market dynamics. Yesterday we observed the US and Germany 10-year bond yields, which is a bearish factor for the euro.

The price consolidated inside the "rectangle" near the levels of 1.1385 - 1.1275. The downward trend potential is preserved.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.1300 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1170 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The traders’ attention will be focused on the industrial production. The PMI manufacturing index showed a decline to the level of 52.5%, indicating the industrial sector slowdown. We expect the data output slightly worse than the forecasted medians which will add pressure on the British pound.

Sellers managed to break through the support level of 1.5200 which currently acts as a resistance. A consolidation below the level 1.5300 and the resistance level of 1.5200 will last till the GDP fundamental data output.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can decrease to the support level of 1.5015.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Yesterday we observed a USD/JPY correction and also on the world's leading stock markets, so today we may expect the bulls’ return. The US Treasury 10-year bond yields are still below 2% and the current levels are attractive for long positions on the US stock market.

The first downward trend line testing of 119.20 was followed by a slight price rebound downwards. Trading volumes have not shown spikes at the lower prices. Then the pair increased and broke through the resistance level of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.20, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 120.40 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 117.00.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD pair consolidated near the 13th figure amid the lack of important macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone and the US. Traders took a wait-and-see position and against this background there was a sluggish trade.

The pair GBP/USD tested the 52nd figure in the first half of the day after the weak industrial production release. The index decreased by 0.2% in December while traders expected a growth by 0.3%. At the moment quotes reached the level of 1.5200 after which there was a trend reversal. The US and UK negative bond yields reduction encouraged bulls to long.

Strong growth on the world's leading stock markets supported demand for the USD/JPY during the day. Traders used correctional movement to build up long positions and as a result, the pair has grown up.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.02.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Eurozone and the United States have pleased traders with interesting macroeconomic releases. The fundamental background for the main pairs is mixed now. On the one hand, we have seen the US and Germany 10-year bond yields expansion which is a bearish signal. There is the largest oil workers’ strike for the last 30 years that pushes up the "black gold" prices. The oil correction has not finished yet which is a bullish factor for the pair euro/dollar.

The price continued its consolidation at the support level of 1.1300 was followed by its rebound downwards below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the support level of 1.1170 this week.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

We should not count on the steady quotations growth in the absence of important macroeconomic statistics. The UK 10-year bond yields are raising in relation to the Germany and the US analogues that is a bullish factor for the "cable".

Sellers are dominant in this market. The medium-term downward trend is held by the key resistance as a downward trend line of 1.5300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.5015.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan celebrated a national holiday – the state foundation day. On this occasion, the Japan banking institutions were closed yesterday. Growth in the world's leading stock markets will spur demand for the pair dollar/yen.

There were the resistance level of 119.20 breakthrough and the level of 120.40 testing. Due to the formed breakthrough the medium-term downward trend reversed upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.20, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

After the resistance level of 120.40 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance level of 121.60 will be opened.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the US dollar lost its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.02. During the day the pair EUR/USD consolidated near the 13th figure amid the empty macroeconomic calendar. This week there was a flat within main pair and soon we expect it to leave the range. The euro strengthened on the yesterday’s trades.

The pair GBP/USD enjoyed steady demand in the morning amid the sales within the cross-rate euro/pound. The UK and Germany 10-year bond yields expansion strengthened the bearish trend within the cross-rate which positively affected the British pound. Still the "cable" has lost all the advantage by the end of the day. The pound increased amid the BoE chief’s speech.

Bulls were dominant on the Tokyo stock exchange market that encouraged bulls to long during the day. This factor with the 10-year US Treasury bond yields increase formed strong demand for the US dollar. The Treasuries bond yields exceeded the level of 2% for the first time this month amid expectations that the Fed would raise interest rates in mid-year. Nevertheless the pair sharply fell.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.02.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The consolidation that we saw the last three trading days was fallowed by the growth. The United States will publish the retail sales release for January. The Michigan University consumer confidence leading indicators and the Conference Board showed an impressive growth in January which proves a high demand in the retail sector. The average earnings index grew by 0.5% in January which is extremely positive for the consumer activity.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1520 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to the level of 1.1590.

Pound(GBP)

General overview

Traders responded positively on the Bank of England quarterly inflation report. We saw an unemployment decrease in the UK which together with the average earnings growth is a positive factor not only for the economic growth, but also for the inflation. The UK 10-year bond yields are now at the level of 1.67% that is higher by 33 basis points above the January lows.

The trade within the pound looked quite sluggish and low volatile. The pound sharply increased after the news publication.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upwards movements and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets is the resistance level of 1.5510.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair decreased but the bullish trend is gaining momentum and now we expect the trend continuation. The United States can please traders with the retail sales positive statistics for January that will encourage traders to long.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 119.20. After breaking 119.20 the buyers may go to 120.40 and 121.60.

Franc (СHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc consolidated in the narrow range this week. The pair slightly increased at the yesterday’s trades.

The main event is the US retail sales report. It is expected that the report figures will not be too good because of the gasoline prices decrease, it is also expected the cars slight sales decline, but the base rate should be higher than December one by 0.4%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair is consolidating now. We should wait till the pair will came out of the flat.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.