Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.12.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Today all the traders’ attention will be focused on the FOMC press conference, on the two-day monetary policy meeting results. The Fed will announce its economic forecast and we expect the assessment revision towards the medium term increase.

Buyers could not confidently break through the support level of 1.2500. The key resistance breakthrough was on the increased volume. Nevertheless the pair fell again and tested the level of 1.2400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.2670.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK weak inflation release for November questions the further pound strengthening. The Bank of England's monetary policy minutes also will not be able to encourage traders - inflation expectations are reducing and the main trading partner weak economic growth will hold back the UK economic growth.

There were made attempts to rise trades to the higher levels within this pair. However, the resistance at the level of 1.5760 limited the pair growth and triggered the rebound downwards. The pair tested the support level of 1.5660.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5760, the next one is at 1.5870.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.5550.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen has not yet exhausted potential for its growth and today bears again will attack bulls. The US CPI release for November can demonstrate the inflationary pressure decrease that will lead to the Japan and the US negative yield spreads reduction.

There was the resistance level of 117.00 breakthrough upwards. The level breakthrough was on the increased volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The level of 117.00 retest is more likely to lead to a decrease to the strong price support levels 115.80 and 114.60.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The US dollar compensated most of the losses incurred against the franc.

The Fed will publish a statement about the month meeting results this year. According to many analysts, the central bank will refuse to use the phrase "considerable time", referring to the period of continuing low interest rates.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9560. When the pair consolidates under the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9500.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.12.2014

Fundamental analysis

The US Federal Reserve two-day meeting results announcement was the central event of the month. The monetary regulator increased the GDP growth rates assessment for the next three years. It was also noted the more rapid unemployment decline in 2015 and 2016. In this case, the financial authorities have reduced inflation forecasts in the short term and we expect decline to the level of 1% in the first half of the next year. At this meeting, the FOMC three members were in favor of raising the federal funds rate - the head of the Minneapolis Fed Kocherlakota was in the favor of the Fisher and Plosser traditional monetary policy. At the press conference, the head of the Federal Reserve announced that interest rates could be raised at any meeting in 2015 that indicates the transition from the conservative point of views to aggressive ones. Against this background, the euro was sold.

The pair GBP/USD was under pressure in the first half of the day after the Bank of England revised the inflation forecast towards the negative side. The MRS minutes reported the consumer prices decline that is less than 1% in annual terms that increased investors’ pessimism towards the British pound. Even the positive salary growth release could not have a significant impact on the market. The salary growth will have a positive impact on inflation and the GDP in the medium term, but the Bank of England short-term negative scenario once again will put pressure on the pound. The US Federal Reserve meeting results negatively reflected on the pound – traders actively get rid of the British pound that is fundamentally overvalued. Nevertheless the sterling increased at the yesterday trades.

That is what the bulls within the pair USD/JPY has been waiting for. The FOMC positive forecasts about the economic growth perspectives with demand on the US stock market encouraged traders for opening long positions. The pair dollar/yen has been the most undervalued currency for the last eight trading days and it is not surprising that namely there we observed the strongest US dollar growth.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.12.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

This week we have received the Germany strong releases from Markit Economics and ZEW and today we expect the positive dynamics to be continued by the IFO Institute. In the light of this, the European single currency can get short-term support.

The Fed pointed out to the downward trend continuation within the main currency pair and the short-term quotations’ growth should be used to build "shorts". The commodity market bearish trend is also able to strengthen demand for the dollar as the commodity assets are denominated into the US currency.

The price is finding the support at 1.2200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2300, the next one is at 1.2400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.2200.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

According to the National Statistics Office report there was the salary increase that exceeded the annualized inflation level. According to the British Retail Consortium this factor with the November sales increase points out to the positive release. The pound can get some support, but this growth should be used for short positions opening amid the increasing demand for the dollar.

The price is finding the support at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5760.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.5550 breakthrough down the way to the support levels 1.5500, 1.5440 will be opened.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

In the absence of the important macroeconomic statistics the traders will focus their attention on the bond and stock markets dynamics. The Japan and the US negative bond yields show to the bullish sentiment predominance within the dollar. Bulls are returning to the US market share, opening long positions at the attractive levels. Yesterday the Nasdaq index was the growth leader in the US which is a positive factor for the stock market because it indicates the strong demand for the risky assets.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 120.40, 121.60.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar has grown against the most currencies as the Fed missed its traditional appeal to keep rates at the zero level for "the considerable period of time" and at the end of the two-days meeting kept its benchmark rate unchanged at the level of 0.25% 0 where it is since 2008.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9800, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.12.2014

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar set a fresh eight-year high – the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 89.60. The pair EUR/USD is under pressure amid the US Federal Reserve meeting results despite the slight correction. The US monetary authorities have changed their conservative views into the moderately aggressive ones the monetary policy perspectives that supports demand for the dollar.

The pair GBP/USD was also in the bears’ power. The GfK has published the UK December consumer confidence release. The indicator has shown its lowest level for nine months, signaling about the personal consumption decline in early 2015. The US negative macroeconomic statistics with the Fed positive forecasts supported demand for the dollar during the day.

The Bank of Japan's announced its monetary policy meeting results. The short-term inflation forecasts were downgraded amid the easing energy prices. At the same time, Mr. Kuroda told about the economic positive trends in the long term amid the low oil prices. Japan acutely depends on the black gold and the low oil price will certainly have beneficial effects on the economic growth. The pair USD/JPY has responded with moderate quotations growth on the control monetary policy director’ statement.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.12.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We draw our attention to the US real estate sector data. The American consumers have been very confident for the recent months that allows us to count on the secondary market home sales positive release.

The support level of 1.2300 breakthrough was at the low volumes. The pair could fixate under this level and start the corrective movement.

The price is finding the support at 1.2200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2300, the next one is at 1.2400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.2300. After breaking 1.2300 the buyers may go to 1.2400.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The United States can please the traders with the secondary market housing sales positive report that will support the demand for the US dollar. The commodity market negative trend was also able to support the dollar - the CRB Commodity Index decreased by 1.42% at the last week.

The trading within the pound has been going in the downward channel for six week in a row. Last week before reaching the channel lower bound, buyers set the price up that was fallowed by the decrease movement.

The price is finding the support at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5760.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal trend and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement target is 1.5760. If the price falls it will get to 1.5550.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The head of the Bank of Japan said that the inflation short-term risks are still preserved amid the oil market bearish trend. In this context, the pair dynamics will be determined by the US and Japan bond markets sentiment.

There was the sharp dollar growth from the support level of 117.00 against the Japanese yen. Buyers broke the resistance level of 119.20 amid the reduced volume and continued the upward movement.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buysignal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement. the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 118.00, 117.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc reached the 2,5 year low against the dollar as a result of the National Bank of Switzerland unexpected decision to set a negative deposit rate to protect the franc.

The Swiss government has revised the economic forecasts towards the GDP forecast decrease for 2015 and lowered to 2.1% from the previous 2.4%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9800, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9900.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9900.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.12.2014

Fundamental analysis

The dollar managed to strengthen against the major currencies in yesterday's trades. Earlier there was a multidirectional trend on the Forex market. The pair EUR/USD was in demand during the day amid the short positions profit taking. There was any important macroeconomic statistics as a result there was quite a weak trade. The pair broke through the level of 1.2200.

The pair GBP/USD was under pressure during the day. The bond market dynamics again showed the US and the UK negative bond yields expansion that with the cross-rate euro/pound growth encouraged bears for short positions opening.

The world's leading stock markets have entered the final Christmas rally phase that supported the demand for the pair USD/JPY during the day. The United States issued the November secondary market home sales negative release, still it could not encourage bears for short positions opening, pointing out to the lack of demand for "safe" yen from the financial institutions.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.12.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

American consumers feel comfortable enough and the November strong retail sales perfectly prove it. We expect the positive data from the durable goods orders. However, it is difficult to count on the exceeding consensus forecast as during the Christmas period Americans are more focused on the retail sector.

Sellers attempted to break through above the resistance level of 1.2300. The short-term test was followed by a small breakthrough with the following price return back beyond the level. Then the pair fell under the support level of 1.2200.

The price is finding the support at 1.2130. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2200, the next one is at 1.2300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential target is 1.2130.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The National statistics office will publish the UK balance of payments quarterly report. There was the strong imports increase in the third quarter that is a negative factor for the payment balance. The Bank of England gold reserves dynamics confirms this negative picture - in the period from July to September, there was the international reserves decline that often happens during the balance of payments deficit.

Sellers have tried twice to break through below the support level of 1.5550 for the last two weeks. There was a twice rebound from the level. The third test of strength was followed by the level breakthrough.

The price is finding the support at 1.5480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5660.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement target is 1.5760. If the price falls it will get to 1.5400.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan again will please traders with interesting statistics in the first half of the day, the pair dollar/yen will replicate the Nikkei 225 stock index futures dynamics.

Slowly but surely, buyers continue to raise the price up at the low volumes. The upward trend is gradually coming out, as evidenced by the sluggish volatility.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 120.40 breakthrough upwards the way to the support 121.60 is opened.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

Traditionally investors buy the dollar in the absence of new factors and amid the expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates in 2015. The US GDP report will be published and according to the forecasts will show the economic growth has exceeded 4% in the second quarter in a row.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9800. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9900.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9900.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.12.2014

Fundamental analysis

The USD grew against the euro last week. Earlier we could see a US dollar moderate correction - the dollar index basket (USDX) came to the mark of 89.95. The pair EUR/USD moderately increased during the day amid the partial short positions profit taking. The United States published the initial jobless claims that exceeded the traders’ expectations. It is worth noting that the four-week average dropped to the level of 290.25K that is a positive signal for the unemployment release that we received on 9 January. The low liquidity forced traders to refrain from active trading.

The British pound also demonstrated little power - the traders closed the "shorts" on the eve of the Christmas holidays. The pair GBP/USD was able to finish the trading day above the resistance level of 1.5544, but the cable perspectives remain vague - we again observed the UK and the US negative bond yields expansion to the new yearly high that.

The pair USD/JPY is consolidating after the strong growth last week. The bulls took profits on the long positions in Asian trading session. Then during the day there was a flat tendency - traders did not hurry to open positions in the run up to Christmas, despite the fact that the bond market made bullish signals. The US and Japan 10-year bond yields expanded to the level of 195 basis points that is a negative factor for the Japanese yen.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.12.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There was no important macroeconomic data. The differential expansion between the German bond yields and the US treasuries contributed to the dollar growth. There are no strong changes on the securities market that confirms the side trend.

The support near 1.2200 was broken through, after which buyers twice tried to test the resistance level of 1.2200. After the second retest the price directed downwards.

The consolidation was formed and the price dropped with a gap.

The price is finding the support at 1.2130. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2200, the next one is at 1.2300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.2000 soon.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound is likely to be under pressure again. The negative ten-year bond yields have increased, reaching the fresh yearly high, caused by the negative data and the strong British data and the US GDP release for the third quarter. All these factors point out to the strong bearish signal.

The support is at the level of 1.5550 and for two weeks it has rebounded the sellers upwards. After the fundamental news publication the level was broken through. The support of 1.5550 breakthrough led to the price exit beyond the downward channel boundaries. The pair broke the level of 1.5550 upwards at the end of the last week.

The price is finding the support at 1.5480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5660.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.5400.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US dollar is consolidating against the yen. A serious divergence is formed that indicates the bullish trend weakness. Looking at the overall dollar correlation against many USD majors, we can observe the overall US dollar growth.

We also note that on the most currency instruments the significant levels have already broken through. The pair USD/JPY is consolidating at the level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 121.60.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The US showed a fairly positive data, as a result the demand for the US dollar has grown. Against this background, the Swiss franc gave up its positions.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9800. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9900.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9900.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar continued to strengthen against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 91.15. During the day the pair EUR/USD tested the 19th figure amid the “black gold” sales. The Brent oil fell to the mark of 56.02 that is able to enhance the Eurozone deflationary threat development. In the light of this traders got rid of the euro.

The negative UK PMI manufacturing sector sent the pair GBP/USD to knockout. In December the indicator fell to the mark of 52.5% that has been the lowest level since June 2013. This release points out to the industrial production weak data that in turn has a negative impact on the final 4th quarter GDP figures. After the release traders actively sold the British pound.

The USD/JPY bulls opened long positions, considering the current levels attractive for their investment portfolios. Even the negative the ISM manufacturing release could not spoil their mood. In December the indicator decreased to 55.5% that is the lowest level for the last 5 months. It should also be noted that the total value fell below the annual average that indicates the strong business activity decline in the manufacturing sector. Against this background, bears opened short positions.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.01.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The pair EUR/GBP strong quotations growth on Friday should attract the bulls’ attention. However, the level of 1.2000 is a strong resistance and its growth potential will be limited by this area.

The traders’ attention will be focused on the Germany inflation data.

The current week opened with a gap according to this instrument. The gap was formed at the round level of 1.2000 that is quite strong level for major market participants.

The price is finding the support at 1.1850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1950, the next one is at 1.2000.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.2000.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Center of Macroeconomic Research Markit Economics will publish the construction sector business optimism release. According to the BBA, the mortgage lending decline in November indicates the data within the forecasted medians. After the quotations decrease to 52nd figure we can expect some technical rebound.

The pound was about 250 points towards the downward trend. There was the intermediate support level breakthrough of 1.5300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a down side. We expect the level of 1.5100 testing soon.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Traders will focus their attention on the stock market dynamics amid the absence of Japan and the US important macroeconomic statistics publication. The Tokyo Stock Exchange began its work after 4-day weekend and we can expect the bearish sentiment prevalence.

Last trading week the US stock market finished in the negative area and today we can expect the negative dynamics continuation.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 120.40 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 121.60 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc reduced amid the dollar growth. In general, the dollar index rose by 12.3% since the beginning of the year becoming the absolute leader among the 10 currencies of the most economically developed countries. Ii is the best result for the last decade.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0030, the next one is at 0.9960. The price is finding the resistance at 1.0100.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0100.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

Rumors that Greece may exit the euro zone sent the European single currency to test the eight- year minimum. The German Chancellor Angela Merkel in an interview with German media said that she considered possible Greece exit from the euro zone. The EUR/USD quotes reached the level of 1.1861 at the moment after this news announcment. Setting a new maximum for the last eight years, the euro/dollar demonstrated the short-term growth. Nevertheless, the pair continues to test the level of 1.1863.

The pair GBP/USD started the trading week with a gap at the level of 1.5245. After the UK construction sector PMI report bears tried to organize an attack against the British pound. We have not seen the quotations reduction below the level of 1.5200. The UK and the US 10- year negative differential bond yields have been declining for two consecutive trading days that is a deterrent for the bearish sentiment strengthening.

Sales on the stock markets in Tokyo and New York encouraged bears to open short positions within the pair USD/JPY. There was no important macroeconomic statistics this day and traders focused their attention exclusively on the stock market dynamics. It should be noted that the Nasdaq index that is a demand barometer for risky assets, on Monday it declined less than their main colleagues, indicating the final phase of the bearish trend in the US stock market.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.01.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Rumors that Greece may exit the Eurozone as well as the German inflationary pressure compression are definitely negative factors, but at this time the euro is at the very low levels. The US and the Germany 10-year bond yields continued to decline, signaling the technical correction development.

The euro/dollar opened the market with a gap. There was an upward correction from the level of 1.1920 that is not supported by the trade volumes. The pair was trading multidirectional and the resistance level of 1.1950 was unsuccessful.

The price is finding the support at 1.1850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1950, the next one is at 1.2000.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.2000. The strong resistance level 1.200 testing will be followed by the euro decrease.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

Markit Economics will publish the third and final UK release. At this time we will get business optimism data in the service sector. We expect the data at the level of consensus forecast that will give some support to the pound. The US ISM service sector release can also reach the level of the forecasted medians.

The gap was not closed. There were no changes in the price volatility. The trade is below the resistance at the level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We expect the consolidation in the range 1.5300-1.5200.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

From the the US non-productive sphere ISM index we can expect a reduction compared to the previous month. The manufacturing index has already shown a decline below the annual average, next is the business activity decline in the services sector. We can also expect the downward dynamics continuation on the US and Japan stock markets.

From the level of 120.40 the downward correction to the upward trend line of 118.00 was formed.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 119.20, 120.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar remains positive against the European currencies amid expectations that the growing divergence in economic growth rates and monetary policy between Europe and the United States in the coming year will continue to support the US currency despite the fact that the Federal Reserve made it clear that it would not rush to increase rates at least until the end of April.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0030, the next one is at 0.9960. The price is finding the resistance at 1.0100.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0100.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was a multidirectional movement the other day. Most of the day the pair EUR/USD was under pressure amid the lower energy prices. Against this background, the German 10- year bond yields again set a fresh historic low. However, after the services sector ISM negative release bulls started to increase long positions. In December, the non-manufacturing sector business climate index fell to the level of 56.2, indicating the economic growth slowdown.

The pair GBP/USD once again came under a sales wave after the Markit Economics publication. The service sector PMI report came out worse than traders had expected, the average quarterly value was the lowest in 2014. This factor, along with the trade and balance of payments weak data indicates the economic growth slowdown for the 4th quarter in the UK.

The pair USD/JPY pair is in the bulls’ power. They took the initiative from the bears. Earlier the US weak macroeconomic statistics accelerated the US stock market sales that caused demand for safe assets - the Japanese yen. It should also be noted the US and Japan 10-year bond yields reduction that is a bearish signal.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.01.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The traders’ attention will be focused on the euro area inflation. The Spain and Germany data showed the inflationary pressure compression the last month of 2014. In recent months there was a large-scale oil contracts sale that puts pressure on the CPI.

Buyers have not closed the gap formed at the beginning of the trading week. Currently, two gaps remain closed according to this trading instrument.

The price is finding the support at 1.1770. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1850, the next one is at 1.1950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1770 soon.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The US moderately negative macroeconomic statistics will allow the British pound to take a breath. The oil prices decline caused the UK and the US bond yields increase, but the negative 10-year bond yields continued to fall. However, it is still premature to talk about the full reversal.

Now the trade within the GBP is towards the downward channel, its upper bound is at the level of 1.5200 and it will be broken through upwards in the short term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5200 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support levels of 1.5100 and 1.5015.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The United States published the ISM manufacturing and service sector negative releases that would certainly be reflected in the 4th quarter GDP. We can also expect the ADP data output and the trade balance slightly worse than the forecasted medians. At the beginning of the new year we saw the US and Japan 10-year bond yields sharp reduction. It was 169 pp on January 6.

At the increasing volume sellers tried to break through below the upward trend line of 119.20 that is a key support. The trend line 118.00 testing has not led to the breakthrough and the pair grew above the level of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The trend is an up side. The upward bounce potential target are 120.40, 121.60.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc remains in the range against the dollar. The factory orders report for November, published on Tuesday, showed the orders decline by 0.7% that is worse than the average analyst forecast by 0.4%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0030. The price is finding the resistance at 1.0200.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0200.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar suspended to strengthen against its major. During the day the EUR/USD remained under pressure amid the negative euro area inflation release. According to the preliminary data the December CPI was in the negative area at the year-on- year level of 0.2%. The market received the first alarm about the deflationary threat growth. The pair euro/dollar reached the mark of 1.1801, but after the Fed's minutes publication traders cut short positions that caused a technical rebound. It should be noted that the FOMC representatives expectations, regarding inflation and employment remain the same - the first indicator will decline in the short term, while the second one shows a steady growth. It was also noted that the monetary regulator expects a higher dollar rate in 2015. The pair slightly corrected at the end of the day.

Yesterday the Brent oil fell to the 50th figure that encouraged bears to open short positions within the pair GBP/USD. The UK 10-year bond yields fell to the 2-year low, indicating the UK inflation expectations strong decline. The pair showed a slight correction at the yesterday trades.

After two days of sales bulls rushed to the market, opening "longs" at the attractive levels. The ADP positive employment release encouraged traders to open long positions - according to the agency the number of employees increased by 241 thousand in the private sector in December that exceeded the traders’ expectations and gives hope to the Non-Farm data output within the forecasted medians.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.01.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Germany will publish the industry orders data. In November the PMI manufacturing sector leading indicator fell below 50%, to its lowest level since June 2013, indicating the weak data output.

The pair EUR/USD tested the support level of 1.1770 and is consolidating below the resistance level of 1.1850.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1770, the next one is at 1.1690. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1850, the next one is at 1.1950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1850 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the levels of support 1.1770 and 1.1690.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound slightly corrected. Earlier the pound was under pressure amid the rising dollar and the UK weak macroeconomic statistics.

The Bank of England will announce its decision on interest rates and bond buyback program. It is expected that the rate will remain at the level of 0.5% and the program will be in the amount of 375 pounds.

We observe the downward trend volatility decrease within the pair GBP/USD. However, we see the volumes growth.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.5015 soon.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Traders will focus their attention on the US and Japan stock markets dynamics. It is premature to talk about the full corrective movement completion in the US stock market - it is necessary to wait for the confirming signals, for example, the trading day at the level of 2050 according the S & P500 index. The US 2-year Treasury bond yields over the last 10 days decreased by 10 points that is a bullish signal for the stock market.

The pair USD/JPY returned above the upward trend line of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 120.40 and the next one is at 121.60.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair dollar/franc overcame the second resistance level of 1.0100 and continues the upward movement. Then it slightly corrected.

On Friday the US Labor Department will publish the government employment report that can show the new job-creating growth for 228,000 people, according to the forecasts, the unemployment rate decreased to the 6,5 year minimum by 5.7%.

About the middle of the Tuesday American session within the given pair the bullish sentiment is dominated. The exchange rate found the strong support around the level of 1.0100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0200, the next one is at 1.0270.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0200. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0270.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar has suspended its winning streak. The pair EUR/USD corrected the Germany industry orders release. In November the indicator declined by 2.4%, indicating the leading euro-zone economy industrial production decline. Against this background, at the moment the pair euro/dollar reached the mark of 1.1753, after which we observed the technical rebound.

The pair GBP/USD showed a decline to the level of 1.5033 where the bears took profits on the short positions. At the end of the week the pair grew up. The Bank of England left unchanged monetary policy. However, traders did not expect any changes. It is also worth noting that many financial institutions begin to doubt that the monetary control will raise interest rates this year.

Strong growth in the US stock market encouraged the bears for long positions opening within the pair USD/JPY. We received a jobless claims that was worse than traders had expected, nevertheless the data showed a decline compared to the previous period. The Nasdaq index was the growth leader on the US stock market, indicating strong demand for risky assets.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.01.2015

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There was the euro the pros and cons balancing as a result of producer prices (PPI) Eurozone decrease in November, also the second consecutive month, -0.3% m/m, -1.6% y/y after -0.3% m/m - 1.3% y/y, and the European Commission data about the sentiment in the European business showed improvement in the consumer confidence and the sentiment in the services sector, nevertheless the industrial sector confidence has weakened.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1770, the next one is at 1.1690. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1850, the next one is at 1.1950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward trend line 1.1850 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support levels 1.1770, 1.1690 return.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK will publish the industrial production release. In November the CBI reported the industrial orders increase that is a positive factor for the industrial production. The 4th quarter PMI Manufacturing Index was at the level of 53.3% and against this background we can expect the data at the level of the forecasted medians that will support the British pound.

The pound shows a low volatility. For a long time the price have been consolidating below the round resistance level of 1.5100 after the downward channel exit. Then the price broke upwards the resistance level of 1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5200 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the level of support 1.5015.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US positive macroeconomic statistics will strengthen not only demand for the US dollar (USDX), but also will support the US stock market. The employment growth indicates the possible GDP growth in the 4th quarter near 4% that is a positive factor for the stock market.

The trade is continued towards the trend line of 118.00. As long as the trend line is not broken through, the potential for the further growth is maintained.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The correction is observed. Nevertheless, we believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 120.40 and the next one is at 121.60.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The US dollar keeps a positive attitude against the European currencies after the data output that indicate the continuing US labor market recovery that in its turn increases the likelihood of raising interest rates by the Fed in a short term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0200, the next one is at 1.0270.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0200. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0270.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The last week end was rich with macroeconomic statistics. We got two releases from Germany - industrial production and trade balance releases for November. Both reports came out negative, but traders ignored the data and took a wait before the US labor market release. The nonfarm payrolls increased by 252 thousand in December in line with our forecast. The overall unemployment rate fell down to 5.6%, dropping to its lowest level since June 2008. Against this background, we have observed the pair EUR/USD sales, but the rate was not able to fall below the minimum Thursday values and after reaching the level of 1.1765 traders took profits on the short positions. The pair grew again after a slight decrease yesterday.

Within the pair GBP/USD bears also took profits on the short positions that supported demand for the British pound. We should also point out to the UK positive trade balance release for November that showed the negative balance reduction.

Despite the positive US labor market statistics bulls do not hurry to open long positions in the stock market, but on the contrary, they took profits on the "longs". The correction in the stock markets put some pressure on the pair USD/JPY.