Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.11.2014

Fundamental analysis

The market has likely taken a wait–and-see position, expecting the end of the week when the reports about the European Central Bank decision and the US labor market situation will be published. In this regard, we again observed the weak lateral trade at the auction where the dollar was sold, taking profit on the previously open positions. It is clear that investors have taken a pause and quite reasonably considering the possible new targets emergence after these important events. In addition, one reason for the dollar sale could be the US economic news that showed a negative change.

The US news will issue the data that can provide guidelines on the labor market situation in October – the ADP report about the work places in the private sector is supposed to be seen with the 220 thousand increase after the earlier 213 thousand. This result will be the dollar support if it is confirmed by the forecasts. The October PMI data about the non business sector by the International Governance Institute (ISM) is less optimistic where the slowdown to 58.0 from 58.6 is possible while the overall index level is still high. It is quite possible that we will observe the range trading at the session today.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.11.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The attitude towards the euro has changed; the euro has grown against the dollar and other competitors. Perhaps, besides the investors’ desire to take profits on the short positions within the euro in advance of the ECB meeting closure, the EU economic data presented by the Eurozone prices dynamics report supported the euro. However, the European currency fell at the end of the trades.

Buyers have broken through the strong resistance level of 1.2500 upwards. The level breakthrough was amid the reduced volumes and price bounced down, breaking through the level backwards.

The price is finding the support at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The MACD indicator is oversold. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.2600 may lead to a price rebound down. However the price action does suggest that the potential rebound target is the support level of 1.2400.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound spent the day in the very narrow side corridor. The pair attempted to decrease, but returned to the opening prices. Obviously, this situation might be explained by the UK weak news and pending the Bank of England meeting release that will be published on Thursday.

The fifth consecutive day the British Pound is trading below the strong resistance level of 1.6030. The short-term tests are followed by the small prices rebound downwards to the support level of 1.5965.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5950, the next one is at 1.5870. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.6100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The nearest target remains the level of 1.6030. If successful, it is expected to fall to the level of 1.5950 and 1.5870.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar growth continued against the yen. The pair stopped in a no-man’s land. Earlier the Japanese yen also strengthened against the US dollar. In fact, in this case there was a profit taking on the important week events expectations. However, today the yen is again under pressure at the session caused by the Bank of Japan head H. Kuroda who made it clear about intentions to continue easing for the economy stimulation and, on the other hand, the reports about the Republicans winning the elections.

The formed consolidation at the level of 113.50 was followed by the price rebound upwards with the further local maximum price updating at the level of 114.60.

The local maximum updating allowed buyers to touch to the resistance level of 114.60.

The price is finding the first support at 113.50, the next one is at 112.60. The price is finding the resistance at 114.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We do not have targets upwards. The visible mark the price can bounce further is 114.60

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar-franc closed the trades on the opening prices. Earlier the dollar fell against the Swiss franc as traders close positions in advance of the two main events this week: the ECB meeting today and the US employment report on Friday.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9680. Should that level break down, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

---

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.11.2014

Fundamental analysis

The European Commission forecast has been revised downwards in terms of the euro zone economic growth in 2014, but the euro dynamics remained practically unchanged and then some experts have concluded that there would not be negative trends in the euro zone economy, the ECB would not apply the additional incentive measures. Perhaps it is so. However, the euro managed to lose about 100 points and before the meeting outcome announcement the market will decide whether it was a reaction to the weak service sector business activity data in October or to the significant retail sales decline or to the fact that we expect that Draghi will announce the additional measures.

The Eurozone currency updated lows. Earlier the euro managed to win back some losses amid the Narayana Kocherlakoty’s unexpected statements, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis who had paid his attention to the US inflation low rate and told the possible Fed rate increase was inappropriate in 2015. Without any doubt, Kocherlakota knows what he is speaking about, because the US economy still needs stimulation despite the vigorous officials’ speeches.

We expect quite good UK news. Besides the Bank of England meeting, traditionally held synchronously with the ECB, both the industrial production and the manufacturing industries data for September will be published, and the HBOS housing price index. It must be said that the confident speeches in the first half of the year left no trace and the market is not worried about the fact when the Bank of England plans tightening monetary policy. The market knows that it will not happen in the short term and the meeting will unlikely lead to the significant pound movements. Nevertheless, the pair is again testing new minimum mark.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.11.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The new ECB stimulus probability rose after the euro zone economic growth weak data release and the Bank of Japan unexpected decision to stimulate actively the economy.

The sellers have broken through the support level of 1.2500 downwards for the second time and there has been observed the decrease to the level of 1.2400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The nearest target remains the support level 1.25. If the price fixates below the resistance level of 1.2500, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.2300, 1.2200.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

"The British" fell in yesterday trades. Earlier the British pound was able to compensate most of the losses, provoked by the weak national statistics. The previous manufacturing activity publication was strong, but the construction sector state indicators have disappointed investors.

The British pound updated lows at the level of 1.5870. The price has been reduced under this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5660. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The price keeps going down. The pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 1.5660.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen almost fell to the seven year low against the dollar after the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda said that it had not seen any limits for the fight with deflation. He also said that he had seen no limitations in the means that the central bank could use for this purpose.

The price had found the strong resistance at the level of 114.60. The US dollar decrease against the Japanese yen is amid the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 114.60, the next one is at 113.50. The price is finding the resistance at 115.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows show a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 115.80. We don’t exclude a larger bullish correction soon.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar has strengthened its position against the Swiss franc after the positive US labor market data release. The number of employees in the US private sector by ADP in October amounted 230K, vs. 220K. The data were positive for the dollar because of some extent they confirm the Fed’s clear optimistic sentiment at the end of the FOMC last meeting.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9620. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.11.2014

Fundamental analysis

The last week ended with the dollar strengthening against its competitors in the financial markets. The ECB and the Bank of England monetary policy decision that was announced on Thursday, met our forecasts, the changes were not made, but the market reacted to these results by the dollar large-scale buying. Obviously, the investors regarded the BoE inactivity as the fears acknowledgement that the UK economic recovery had slowed down; there is a risk to return the downtrend and in these circumstances, the regulator does not intend to tighten the policy.

As for the ECB, the signaling point for the market was the M. Draghi’s press conference that reaffirmed the European Central Bank decision to increase the quantitative easing volumes.

The US economic data were scarce, but they were on the dollar side - the initial jobless claims fell immediately by 10 thousand last week while we expected the data would be significantly less positive, only two thousand. This information could also support the dollar as to some extent it added confidence that the coming labor report would note good results. According to our forecasts the employment statistics will announce its growth by 233/230 thousand of work places in the US non-agricultural sector and the US unemployment rate retention at the level of 5.9%. If the fact does not meet our expectations for the worst, the dollar demand will remain at the high level.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.11.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The single European currency could recover a few. Earlier the euro continued to decline against the dollar and fell to the new local lows. The reports that the European Central Bank left its key interest rate at the record low level of 0.05%, initially supported the euro, but the M. Draghi’s press-conference changed the market sentiment and the euro was in the sales wave.

The support level of 1.2400 was broken through. The level breakthrough was amid the high volumes. The pair failed to consolidate below and returned to the position above this support.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The potential decrease targets are the two levels of support: 1.2400 and 1.2300.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound slightly rose against the dollar. Earlier the British pound fell. The Bank of England has not changed the monetary policy parameters- the refinancing rate remained at the level of 0.5% and the bond purchases program is in the amount of 375 billion of British pounds. However, it was considered by the market as the reason for the pound decrease and put some pressure on the "cable".

Sellers have managed to break through the support level of 1.5870 for the second time. The level breakthrough was amid the high volumes. The pair is testing the level of 1.5870 from the bottom.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5660. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3670.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair dollar/yen tried to continue its growth on the common sentiment for the "dollar", but its attempts were broken off amid the Japan stock market quotations decrease where the Nikkei fell by almost 1%.

The dollar/yen managed to break the level of 114.60 upwards and consolidate above. Currently the pair is testing the support level of 114.60.

The price is finding the first support at 114.60, the next one is at 113.50. The price is finding the resistance at 115.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong resistance 115.80. The price rebounds from this mark.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

According to the latest forecasts in the world's largest economy there were created 235,000 new work places in comparison with the average growth rate of 226.670 last year. At the same time the unemployment rate is likely to remain at the level of 5.9%. The dollar has increased by 8% for the last three months that was the best result among the ten major currencies of more economically developed countries.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.11.2014

Fundamental analysis

The week beginning was noted by the some dollar recovery against all majors. The Friday trade results were not on the US dollar side. The dollar fell against all of its major competitors after the US employment data partially met our expectations. In general, the employment report result was not bad - the unemployment rate fell in October to 5.8% against 5.9% in September as we had not expected the changes and the number of part-time workers and those who have no hope in finding a job, reduced by 0.3%. The new September workplace data was revised upwards. However, the October new workplace growth came out much worse than it had been expected amounting 214 thousand instead of 233 thousand that confused the market and provoked the US dollar sales.

Moreover, it seems that the technical factors have put some pressure on the dollar as the levels where the main pairs are now are distinguished by the strong support/resistance which with the obvious dollar overbought was able to increase the profit fixation on the previous open long positions within the dollar.

With regard to the dollar perspectives, the less strong job growth has not changed the market preferences and the "bullish" attitude towards the dollar. However, the absence of important events in the US as well as in other regions can support the correction that began last Friday and then the week trades will be in ranges.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.11.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro fell sharply at yesterday's trading. The attitude towards the euro was changed last week - buyers started to buy the European currency and at the end of the Friday it strengthened against the dollar and other majors. Obviously, the euro overbought reached the level that prompted investors to the correction, all the more that the US statistics gave rise to the emotional reaction against the dollar, showing the October work places increase data worse than it had been forecasted.

We observe the upper bound testing of the downtrend channel at the level of 1.2500. The price exit from the channel limits opens the way to the resistance level of 1.2500 in the long term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.2400 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.2300.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The sterling fell slightly against the dollar yesterday. The British pound also grew against the dollar on Friday on the common emotions caused by the US economic data. However, the pound rise was less energetic in comparison with the euro one; the UK economic data could slow it down. The week news is not rich in the number of messages, but the important and influential information will be sufficient. The statistical data can support the pound.

The consolidation led to the correctional growth above the level of 1.5870. The pair then declined and closed trades below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5660. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The price is core trend. We expect the level of 1.5660 testing soon.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar began to fight for its position against the Japanese currency. A pessimism towards the dollar became evident on Friday and the US dollar declined at the end of the trading day within the pair USD/JPY. The US dollar sales for the yen began after the US labor market report, some of which contained information about the forecasts failure. The Bank of Japan minutes and the Institute president H. Kuroda’s speech showed a clear intention to maintain the easing policy and increase incentives if required.

Buyers twice tried to get closer to 115.80 resistance, but without success. There was the price rebound downwards. The price rebound from the level allowed sellers to get out of the rising channel. The pair showed some growth and closed the trading day above the level of 114.60 yesterday.

The price is finding the first support at 114.60, the next one is at 113.50. The price is finding the resistance at 115.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 115.80.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar increased against the Swiss franc. Earlier the franc sharply strengthened on Friday. The dollar showed the maximum fall for the last three weeks after the employment report publication was slightly worse than the average forecasts amid the discussions about the fact when the Fed will raise the interest rates from the record lows.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.11.2014

Fundamental analysis

The new week was opened by the attempts to continue the dollar sales on the sentiment formed by the US labor report that was published last Friday. However, the success was not long on the "bears" side within the dollar, the levels where the US dollar had fallen turned out to be attractive for purchases and investors began to stock up the long positions volumes within the dollar. As a result, the Monday's session ended with the dollar strengthening against all the major competitors. The US news was not published on Monday. However, the yesterday's trades ended with the dollar weakening.

We expect the NFIB small business sentiment report, it is considered that the optimism index rose to 95.5 vs. 95.3 in October that is a positive factor for moods within the dollar, but most of all it will not provoke reactions and increased volatility on the market. Apparently, this session will be marked by the weak range trading as the previous one.

The US GDP showed its growth in the third quarter. The service sector has shown an increase in the workplaces by 181 thousand. It is worth noting that service sector includes 52 thousand from the recreational sphere. The processing industry has increased the workplaces by 15 thousand. The US population share in the so-called labor force showed an increase from 62.7% to 62.8% in October this year. The 62.7% index for September 2014 corresponds to the minimum indicator in February 1978.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.11.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro held the Tuesday trading in the narrow side corridor and at the end of the session rose against the dollar. Earlier the euro fell amid the European news as the US news was lack of important information and the euro was under pressure due to the last events – the less strong US labor report as well as the medium-level sentiment, preserving the dollar demand.

The resistance level short term test of 1.2500 was followed by the price rebound downwards. The US dollar continued to strengthen against the euro amid the low volumes. The rebound from the resistance level of 1.2500 has led to the descending channel formation. The price decreased to the level of 1.2400. The buyers again corrected the price to the level of 1.2500.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.2400 soon.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound also spent the yesterday's trading in the side trade. The general market sentiment was influenced by the GBP/USD which decreased in the early session and then rose that resulted in the pound strengthening at the end of the day.

The resistance level short break of 1.5870 was followed by the reverse price return above this mark. The reverse price return above the level of 1.5870 allowed the buyers to lower the price to the resistance level of 1.5950.

The trading volumes are at the lows, besides today we expect the fundamental data releases. We expect a consolidation below the support level of 1.5950 in the short term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5660. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.5660.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The USD/JPY trades showed a different directional movement, ended by the yen victory at the end of the trading day. Besides the general market sentiment, the pair dynamics was influenced by the events in the Japan stock market and in the US government debt market. The Nikkei fall provoked the risk avoidance and the yen strengthening at the beginning of the day, but the US "Treasuries" bond yields growth led to the dollar support in the US session.

The short-term correction to the support level of 114.60 was followed by the price rebound upwards. Despite the reduced volumes, the buyers returned the price back to the resistance level of 115.80 where the price rebounded in the opposite direction.

The price is finding the first support at 114.60, the next one is at 113.50. The price is finding the resistance at 115.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price breaks 114.60 down it will open the way to the level of 113.50.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar again began to lose ground after a slight increase. Earlier the dollar recovers its positions after the short recession caused by the US labor report publication.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9560. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9500.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.11.2014

Fundamental analysis

We again observed the volatile range trading on the currency market yesterday. The major pairs remained in the side corridors that had been formed earlier, only this time the US dollar rose at the end of the trading day. The exceptions were the events against the dollar and the yen; in this case the dollar has reached the new local maximum and has closed trades with a profit. It is difficult to say what caused the dollar decrease earlier that mainly occurred in the US session. Perhaps, the absence of the news "irritants” and the speech by the Boston Fed president Rosengren influenced the market sentiment, who told during the interview with media that the US central bank should refrain from raising interest rates until the inflation target level returned to the Federal Reserve target level defined at the level below 2%.

It seems that there will not be large-scale changes in the currency market - the dollar will likely trade in the same way against the euro and the yen, but it is possible the volatility increase in the pair pound/dollar because there will be much important and influential information in the UK.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.11.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro has consolidated against the dollar. There were no events that could support the euro and its interest could be based on the technical factors and the US Central Bank speeches. Moreover, the EU authoritative analysts’ statements could be a reason for the increasing pressure on the European currency.

The trend is expected to go downwards according to this instrument in the medium-term. The correctional growth price continuation is expected in the short term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downtrend movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong resistance level of 1.2500. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 1.2600.

Pound(GBP)

General overview

The British pound has sharply fallen against the dollar. Obviously, the market was guided by the technical factors and the US news.

We expect the UK employment data and the inflation report by the Bank of England which will be commented by the institution president M.Karni at the press conference.

The key resistance for bears is the downward trend line of 1.5950, from which the pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5660. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a core sided. We expect the level of 1.5660 testing soon.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen fell against the dollar on the yesterday trades. The Japan stock market events where the Nikkei grew by 2% and then the rumors that the next Japan sales tax increase may be postponed to the later date put some pressure on the yen.

At the beginning of the week buyers were able to break through and consolidate above the resistance level of 114.60. The level breakthrough was amid the low volumes and led to a consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 114.60, the next one is at 113.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 115.80, the next one is at 117.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 117.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc rose before the referendum, scheduled on the November 30 after which the gold reserves increase in the ratio of 20% to the foreign exchange reserves from the current 8% can be required from the Swiss regulator. It may complicate the National Bank work in control over the exchange rate. In this case the regulator will be given five years to increase gold reserves to the required levels.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9620. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9560.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

14.11.2014

Fundamental analysis

There was the volatility growth within the major pairs yesterday. The pair EUR/USD ended the trading day in the "red zone" amid the empty macroeconomic calendar. The oil quotes reduction contributed to the US dollar rise during the day. The bond market dynamics also supported the dollar demand – on Wednesday we observed the German and the USA yields spread extension.

As we noted in our previous review - the Bank of England negative inflation report will encourage bears to open short positions within the pair GBP/USD. The monetary regulator lowered both the GDP growth and inflation estimation for the next two years. We expect to achieve the 2% target inflation by the end of 2017 that greatly upset the currency market participants. Against this negative background, traders hurried to get rid of pounds that lost 0.85% after the trades.

We observe the steady uptrend within the pair USD/JPY and we do not see any reasons for its failure. The dollar feels quite at ease and bulls use the short-term quotations decrease to increase the "longs". We observed the technical correction in the US and Japan stock markets and against this background the pair dollar/yen quotes fell to the level of 114.88 after that we again saw the US dollar demand yesterday.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

14.11.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro was trading in the narrow side corridor and finally fixed the negative result against the dollar. There were some eurozone economic data that have shown the positive result, but it was not enough to give the euro solid support.

The consolidation continuation was a good signal for the prices rebound downwards. Moreover, buyers were not able to lift the price above the level of 1.2500 and this level testing was unsuccessful.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600.

The price is in the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential rebound target are the support levels of 1.2400 and 1.2300. The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.2200.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK economic data have shown the labor market positive results, but the inflation report and the BoE M.Karni’s comments caused a pessimism wave and provoked the pressure increase on the pound which fell against the dollar to the new local low and ended the trades with significant losses.

The British pound broke through and fixed below the strong support level of 1.5870. The level breakthrough was amid the GBP high volatile news.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5660. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.5660.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen was traded against the dollar in the side consolidation and closed the session with small losses. Obviously, the pair little activity was the result of the different rumors related to the Japan fiscal policy that decide the sales tax fate, the possible early parliament elections and also amid the neutral events in the stock markets.

There was the support level of 115.80 testing. It was amid the low volumes and failed to break above this level. The price is consolidating below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 114.60, the next one is at 113.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 115.80, the next one is at 117.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 115.80 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance 117.00 will be opened.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc strengthened slightly against the dollar.

The Swiss National Bank president, Jordan said that the adoption of the so-called “Save Our Swiss Gold” initiative would be a "fatal error of judgment” and would complicate the central bank work.

In the center of this popular legislative initiative is the requirement to prohibit the Swiss National Bank from selling its gold reserves. In addition, the initiative requires that one fifth of the Swiss Central Bank foreign exchange reserves would be translated into the pure gold.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750.

The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9560. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9500.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.11.2014

Fundamental analysis

We observed volatility spikes within the major pairs last Friday that continued on the yesterday trades. After the moderately positive euro zone GDP data the EUR/USD reached the mark of 1.2550 from which the pair fell. The economic growth showed 0.2% in the 3rd quarter instead of the expected 0.1%. However, traders ignored this report amid the US strong economic growth, but economic growth in the Old World has not led to sustainable development. The US positive macroeconomic statistics will allow the euro/dollar to test 24th figure. Both releases from the United States pleased traders with the positive data and at the moment of quotes reached the level of 1.2455.

The pair GBP/USD has started the trading week at the minimum value over the past 13 months. The Bank of England inflation release that was published on Wednesday 12 November has sent the pound to knockout. We have watched both the pair GBP/USD reduction and the UK and the US negative bond yields expansion for the last three trading days of the last week. The US positive macroeconomic retail sales and the consumer confidence statistics by the Institute of Michigan has only reinforced the "bearish rally" within the British pound and at the moment of quotes reached the mark of 1.5720 after which the pair decreased back to the minimums.

The United States pleased traders with the positive macroeconomic statistics. The October retail sales rose by 0.3% while the consumer confidence indicator by the Institute of Michigan showed maximum values in July 2007. The increased consumer confidence is laying a strong foundation for strong economic growth in the 4th quarter of the current year.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.11.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro continues its downward movement after a slight correction. Earlier the euro demand has grown that allowed the European currency to finish trades with a profit against the dollar. This point is attributed to the US inflation perspectives that reduce our confidence in the US rate increase any time soon. However, the technical factors were a more serious as that triggering increased tendency to lock in profits on the long dollar positions.

Buyers corrected the euro/dollar amid the low volumes to the downward trend line of 1.2500. The downward trend line of 1.2500 is a key resistance for the bearish trend. The price could not fix above this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600.

The price is in the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend lines 1.2400, 1.2300.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound sales were continued and the overall session result was negative for the "cable". The negative sentiment was formed by the Bank of England quarter inflation report that was published last Wednesday and showed the inflation forecasts decrease and the UK economic growth.

There was a rapid price rebound from the support level of 1.5600 upwards. The rebound was followed by the increased volume. Nevertheless the pair fell below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5870.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5870 may lead to the price rebound down.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen declined against the dollar at the yesterday trades. The attitude towards the yen remained under the BoJ recent decision influence to increase the easing program volumes. However, the pair USD / JPY demand has reduced.

The corrective price decline was formed. Then the pair continued the upward movement.

The price is finding the first support at 115.80, the next one is at 114.60. The price is finding the resistance at 117.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 117.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The US dollar is strengthening in almost all the currency market instruments. We still expect the trends change and of course the most comfortable trend change will lead to another dollar high formation.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750.

The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9560. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9500.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.11.2014

Fundamental analysis

We have observed the profit taking continuation on long positions within US dollars. At the moment of quotation the pair EUR/USD reached the level of 1.2540, the pair GBP/USD is consolidating around the level of 1.5660 and the pair USD/JPY reached the level of 116.70. After that the US dollar once again strengthened its position.

The commodity and the bond market dynamics indicate that the institutional investors continue to open "longs" within the dollar. Particularly the strong government bond yield spreads expanded within the pairs GBP/USD and USD/JPY that confirms the current trends stability within these instruments.

We should also speak about the Japanese yen. The Japan's GDP release for the third quarter pointed out to the technical recession that the yen weakening. And now the Japan financial authorities suggest that the sales tax rates increase from April was a mistake. In this connection, we can expect the further Japanese yen decrease.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.11.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We expect be the positive European news. The Germany ZEW business sentiment is expected to rise up from 3.6 to 0.9 points in November and the eurozone sentiment is expected to grow from 4.1 to 4.3 points.

The pair EUR/USD rebounded from the downward trend line of 1.2435 upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.2600. If the price falls it will get to 1.2400, the next target is 1.2300.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK will publish inflation release that is a very important and influential data. According to the forecasts the October consumer price index (CPI) remained unchanged at the level of 1.2% y/y, the benchmark (Core CPI) has probably raised up to 1.6% y/y from 1.5% y/y that if it impresses the market, it will be likely negative for the pound.

The pair GBP/USD is consolidating near the upper bound of the downtrend channel of 1.5660.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5870.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The trend is going down. We expect the level of 1.5550 testing soon.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar is stable near the seven-year highs against the yen amid the growing expectations that the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will announce the early elections and will postpone the planned sales tax rise, the next day when the data showed that the economy turned towards recession.

The Japan's economy contracted in the third quarter by the year-on-year 1.6% in comparison with the growth forecast by 2.5%.

The price is finding the first support at 115.80, the next one is at 114.60. The price is finding the resistance at 117.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 117.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

According to the US base producer price index for October is expected to increase by 0.2%, the overall index is expected to decline by 0.1%. The housing market business activity for October by NAHB is expected to grow from 54 to 55.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750.

The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9560. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9500.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.11.2014

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was under pressure yesterday. The pair EUR/USD was in demand during the day amid the positive release from the ZEW institute. The business sentiment rose to 11.5 in Germany that is the highest value over the past three months. The positive expectations about the German economy perspectives greatly encourage us, but we should not deceive ourselves - the trend is still negative and we should see a series of positive data. The neutral bond market news also contributed to the euro purchase.

The pound was showing an upward trend during the day. The UK consumer price index has coincided with the forecast, showing an increase by 0.1% and at the same time the PPI rate has slightly decreased. The main reason for the inflation increasing became tariffs for the transport services. Nevertheless, the US and UK negative yield spreads held bulls back from the opening long positions. Traders have virtually ignored the inflation data and during the day we saw a flat within the pair GBP/USD. Nevertheless the pair grew.

The economic instability provided the political instability in Japan. "Abenomics" is under pressure and, in this regard, the Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced the early elections and suspended the sales tax increase for 18 months. The pair USD/JPY reached the mark of 117.06 against this negative background, then we again saw profit-taking on long positions, allowing the yen to recover some lost ground. However, the US stock market growth encouraged bulls again for the "longs" opening.