Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

We observed different directed trends within the major currency pairs last week. Bulls cannot still develop the full correction movement on the EUR/USD - as soon as the quotations are above 28th figures, sellers come to the market and the US dollar recovers its lost ground. The US initial jobless claims release over the past week came out much better than traders had expected that also held bulls back. Against this background, the trading day on Friday ended with the quotations decrease by 0.2%.

The pair GBP/USD was under pressure at the European trading session amid the negative investors’ sentiment towards the UK lower inflationary pressure. At the moment the prices reached the level of 1.5940, and then we observed the pound position recovery. The US and UK bond yields significantly decreased in the second half of the day on Friday that led to the short positions pound closing. Against this backdrop, the trading day ended in the "green field" within the pair pound/dollar on Friday.

Traders chose the upward direction for the USD/JPY on Friday. The high volatility is still observed on the credit markets and the stock market volatility puts traders to a standstill. Against this backdrop, the dollar/yen was growing towards the 107th figure during the day.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.10.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro/dollar spent the Friday session in a limited range and closed the session almost with the opening prices. The eurozone data gave the market some disappointment because the latest September inflationary evaluation confirmed the earlier price pressure growth results only 0.3% y/y that keeps the deflationary risks, and the foreign trade block information pointed to the August export and import drop.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential target is 1.2670. We believe the pair to return to a decrease soon.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound continued its growth against the US dollar that started on the Wednesday trading and then started a consolidation. The UK economic news was not published and the increased pound interest could be based on the fact that the Bank of England tightening policy is opposed to the ECB and the Bank of Japan policies that can be our guidance in an uncertainty period.

The bulls were able to break through above the strong resistance level of 1.6030. The level breakthrough occurred on the high volume, but the price growth was not long term, soon the pair consolidated.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidation.

Trading recommendations

The downward trend line retest is more likely to lead to the price support levels 1.6030, 1.5950 return.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen was trading as the euro in the narrow corridor against the US dollar and finished the Friday trades with a decrease. The Bank of Japan Mr. Kuroda’s speech affected the pair movement who stated that the Japanese yen decrease was positive for Japan as well as the increased market yields treasuries.

The support level of 105.70 testing led to the short-term consolidation with the subsequent price growth. The intermediate growth target was the resistance level of 106.30. Having overcome this level, the pair tested the level of 106.70.

The price is finding the first support at 106.30, the next one is at 105.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 106.70, the next one is at 107.10.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair is correcting upwards now. The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 106.30, 105.70 soon.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc stabilized against the US dollar amid our expectations that the US economy is ahead of the Europian and Japan economy.

The US data publication showed that the initial jobless claims fell to 264K versus 287K the previous week.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horisontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9330.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

21.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was able to strengthen significantly its position against its main competitors the last week - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed at around 85.20. The pair EUR/USD was moderately decreasing during the day amid the US positive macroeconomic data. The consumer sentiment index by the University of Michigan established multi-year highs in October that dispels our skepticism about the US economic prospects. Traders tried to start a technical correction for the euro/dollar, but so far their efforts were unsuccessful. As soon as we see an increase above the 28th figure – bears immediately come to the market and the euro once again returns to the range of 1.2605 -1.2805.

The pair GBP/USD enjoyed moderate demand during the day amid the short positions’ closing. The US and UK 10-year bond yields declined significantly to a level of 0.7 bp that in turn is a bullish signal for the pound sterling. We observed a technical rebound amid the US positive data about the consumer confidence by the Institute of Michigan. Then at the moment the pound quotes reached the level of 1.6180.

The pair USD/JPY strengthened significantly amid the global equity markets demand. After considerable sales on the American stock market – the bullish sentiment increased. The US positive data by Institute of Michigan supported the dollar. The consumer sentiment index showed a record growth to the level of 86.4 in October that confirms the US economic strength against its main competitors.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

21.10.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The part of the previous achievements was lost that was caused by the frustration tendency to the peripheral countries bond yield growth, the euro sales were caused by the ECB members’ statements and the US economic data that pointed out that the regenerative processes in the world's largest economy are still ongoing.

We have noticed a consolidation above the support level of 1.2730 for a long time. While trading volumes are still at the lows.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2730. The price is finding the resistance at 1.2850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.2790 may lead to the price rebound upward. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 1.2850.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound got some pressure yesterday after the Bank of England Chief Economist E. Haldane speech where he said that he was "more gloomy" about Britain’s economic forecast than before and the UK interest rates should stay lower for longer without jeopardizing the inflation target which is 2%.

The upward correction volatility is gradually decreasing. The price is likely to rebound downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential target is 1.5870.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen fell amid the increasing risk appetite in view of the US stock market optimism and the yield "Treasuries." slight increase. The political invariability of the Japanese regulator, aiming at achieving the inflation target of 2% could support the dollar.

Buyers were able to break through above the downward trend line of 106.70. The trend breakthrough was amid the low volumes and at the same time it was the signal to change the downward trend.

The price is finding the first support at 106.30, the next one is at 105.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 106.70, the next one is at 107.10.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The trend goes downward. We expect the level of 106.30 testing soon.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc has risen against the US dollar weakening. However, later the dollar reduced its losses against the major currencies amid the expectations that the US economy is ahead of the European and Japan economy.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9330.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was under pressure-the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at around 84.95 at the beginning of the week. There was not any important macroeconomic statistics this day. Traders are again trying to implement the corrective movement within the US dollar after the last US Fed protocol where it was pointed out the US dollar revaluation negative effects.

Against this background the main dollar competitors were in demand during the day, but now it is still too early to talk about the 100% dollar correction. The last two weeks we noticed how bulls tried to disperse the quotes up several times and faced strong pressure from the bears’ part. It should also be noted the negative trend on the commodity market – the CRB index finished the trading day in the "red zone" that is a positive factor for the dollar and will provide little support to it.

We do not expect the important macroeconomic statistics. We should emphasize the real estate sales’ release in the US secondary market. The real estate market releases which we received at the end of last week point out to a demand recovery after the August recession and in this regard we can expect the data release at the forecasted medians level.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.10.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro fell at the end of the yesterday trades. Earlier the single European currency has strengthened against the US dollar. However, the euro achievements were not impressive as its price has remained in the consolidation range and the euro has not shown any new local highs.

The long-awaited beginning of the ECB asset purchase program was treated by investors with almost complete indifference and had no effect on the market.

Buyers can not break through above the strong resistance level of 1.2850 the second week. The long consolidation pointed to the clear price down rebound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2850.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.2670. We do not exclude the level of 1.2600 retest.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The sterling had lost some positions. Before this the pound was in the great demand. The pound has grown more than any other majors against the US dollar. It is possible that these investors’ sentiment was amid the fact that the "cable" is now the most profitable currency and in the conditions of uncertainty is an attractive asset for the shorts.

The downward trend line is broken upwards. It is a good signal for the further mid-term bearish trend reversal. However, the only thing that indicates the weakening buyers’ force is volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The level of 1.6180 retest may lead to the price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the levels of support 1.6100, 1.6030.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar at the beginning of the trading day and declined at the second half of the day. As a result, the session within the pair USD/JPY was closed neutrally - on the opening prices. The causes of such a scenario could be events on the stock markets and the US market debts. The Nikkei index has risen nearly by 4.0% after reports that the Japan state pension investment fund plans to increase the share of Japanese equities in its portfolio to 25%, but was not supported by the events on the US and European stock markets, as, in general, by the "Treasuries ", profitability that fell slightly.

The price is finding the first support at 106.30, the next one is at 105.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 106.70, the next one is at 107.10.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 107.10.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The frank is strengthening its position amid the general trend of the weakening dollar after the Sent Luis Fed President James Bullard said that the Fed should consider a possibility to delay the asset purchase program completion to counter the expected inflation reduction. Then the franc fell again.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9330.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

We still observe a flat within the major pairs in the Forex market. The lower inflationary pressure in the world's largest economies caught by surprise traders and now the asset managers cannot identify the most "weak link." On October 8 Federal Reserve pointed to the dollar revaluation the US consumer price index negative impact and the investors rushed to close “longs” within the US dollar. However, as we see, traders cannot still find the dollar alternative and on this background we have recently seen a side tendency. The trading day did not bring important macroeconomic statistics. The United States pleased investors with positive release sales in the secondary market.

The sales rose by 2.4% in September that indicates the confident consumer demand. It is also necessary to emphasize the American stock market rapid growth - Apple reported the record profits for the 3rd quarter of this year that with the US positive macroeconomic statistics cheered bulls up to open “longs”. Against this positive background, the US dollar was able to strengthen against its major competitors.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.10.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro will be under the external information influence, first of all under the US inflation data. If the data shows the US price pressure growth, as, in general it is expected that will increase our confidence in the ECB and the Fed policy growth that will add pressure on the euro.

The EUR/USD has broken through the lower uptrend boundary of 1.2730 that means the three-week correction turn in the long term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair consolidates first. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.2600, 1.2500.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The US good statistics was one of the main pound weakening reason. The technical factors influenced the pound as well. The growth was caused by the strong resistance level where the pair pound/dollar is now.

The Bank of England last meeting minutes will be published where they discussed the monetary policy future.

The pair GBP/USD is waiting the fundamental data. We expect one of the two important levels break through: 1.6180 and 1.6030 amid these data.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180.

There is weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward one. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the level of 1.6030 break that will open the way to 1.5870.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen sales were caused by the price decrease on the Japan stock market where the Nikkei has lost about 2% .Then the technical factors and the US estate market sales strong data returned the pair growth - as a result the US dollar leveled the loss and got a slight "profit".

The Japanese economic data showed a further deficit growth. The pair USD/JPY intends to break the strong resistance level of 107.10 for the third time. The previous two strong resistance level of 107.35 tests were followed by the price rebound down.

The price is finding the first support at 107.10, the next one is at 106.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.60, the next one is at 108.00.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 107.10 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance level of 107.60 is opened.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc retreated against the general dollar rise. The Switzerland trade balance data showed the $ 2.45 billion surplus. However, both exports (3.3%) and imports (7.4%) have fallen.

The pair USD/CHF rebounded to 0.9535 and stabilized near the daytime highs.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9430. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9620.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9560. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9620.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was able to strengthen its position against its major competitors despite the many investors’ expectations. The pair EUR/USD lost 0.4% at the end of the trading amid the CPI moderately positive data in the United States. The September inflation remained unchanged at the level of year -on -year 1.7% that is 0.1% better than the forecasted medians. We observed the US 10-year bond yields sharp increase against this background.

The GBP/USD also remained under pressure during the day amid the Bank of England last meeting negative reports. There are still only two monetary control representatives – Weal and McCafferty vote for a rate increase. The other IFA members hold more conservative views. The Bank of England is now focused on its main trading partner (the euro) problems, and therefore it expects the UK economic growth slowdown.

The Japan trade balance poor statistics for September cheered bulls up within the pair USD/JPY for opening "longs". The September negative balance again increased due to the strong imports growth. Japanese exporters began to feel much better with the national currency devaluation in September. The US moderately positive statistics on inflation has increased the dollar demand.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.10.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The single European currency has survived another day of pressure against the US dollar. In early trading the dollar was strengthening amid the remained sentiments caused by information that the ECB intends to expand the range of assets purchases, then the European currency came under pressure after the US economic data release that confirm the inflation increase.

The rising channel lower boundary 1.2730 breakthrough led to the euro three-week upward correction reversal against the dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.2600 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.2500.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound came also under pressure against the dollar. The first reason for investors’ frustration is the Bank of England last meeting “minutes”. The "minutes" pointed to the British regulator tendency to soft policies and pushed the pair GBP/USD down.

The sellers managed to break below the support level of 1.6100 amid the fundamental factors.

The volumes indicate the clear bears’ weakening. But as the trade is still in the downtrend line direction - we cannot talk about the upward direction.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.5870.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen also fell against the dollar yesterday. The US information about consumer inflation was the main factor influencing the pair USD/JPY. Before this report publication the trades were in a narrow side range, and after the report publication the yen was in the sales wave and fixed its losses at the end of the trading day.

The buyers came to the strong resistance level of 108.00 at the low volumes that has earlier bounced the price down. The consolidation below the strong resistance can cause a slight price decrease in the short term.

The price is finding the first support at 107.10, the next one is at 106.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.60, the next one is at 108.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 107.10. The potential growth target is the resistance level of 108.50.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc fell against the dollar while the dollar index reached the one-week high after the US unexpected inflation increase in September.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9430. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9620.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9560. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9620.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar weakened slightly against most of its competitors - the dollar index basket finished trading at around 85.71. The pair EUR/USD enjoyed a moderate demand. The traders ignored the positive data about the US new buildings sales in September that indicates traders are set to the euro/dollar upward movement. The last week commodities again showed a decline, but this factor did not support the US dollar demand.

The UK GDP release for the 3rd quarter came in line with the traders’ expectations - 0.7%. Traders close short positions within the pair GBP/USD, as the negative data have already been laid in quotes - we have seen the pound sales for the last three days. At the moment the British currency quotes reached the level of 1.6095 and then we noted some technical rebound.

The pair USD/JPY was under pressure, it was not able to finish the trading on a positive note. After the "bull rally" that we saw last week, traders partially took profits on "longs". Nevertheless, the bulls’ position is strong enough the world's leading stock markets ended the day with the quotations steady growth and with the US positive macroeconomic statistics will support the dollar demand in the short term.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.10.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro is under pressure after the EU representative Katainen said that Germany's potential growth rate was "too low". While earlier the ECB Governing Council member Noyer said that France and Italy were lagging behind with their reforms and the eurozone economy that has already completed reforms was growing.

The three-day consolidation is at the support level of 1.2600 and has led to the price rebound upwards. The buyers corrected the euro to the strong resistance level of 1.2730 amid the low volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2600. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2790.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential target is 1.2600.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound rose after the UK GDP data. However, the market is not in a hurry to fall into euphoria. Taking into consideration that the eurozone economic recovery is progressing very slowly and concerns about the US and China slowdown we can assume that the Bank of England will delay the first rate increase until the second half of 2015. It was earlier expected that the rates will be raised in February. The UK weak salary growth and absence of inflationary pressure makes the period of monetary policy easing by the Bank of England much longer.

There was a short-term price rebound from the support level of 1.6030 that allowed the buyers to correct the price to the downward trend line of 1.6100.

The corrective GBP growth is not supported by the trading volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The bears need to break below 1.6100 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.6030 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen rose for the first time for seven days on Friday against the US dollar after the reports that New York's physician was hospitalized with the Ebola diagnosis. The messages about the deadly disease in the US largest city provoked the safe assets demand growth.

The US dollar growth against the Japanese yen has stopped above the resistance level of 108.00 and then the pair fell.

The price is finding the first support at 107.60, the next one is at 107.10. The price is finding the resistance at 108.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 107.10 line break that will open the way to 108.00, further then towards 108.50.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc partially compensated for the losses. The dollar has reduced its first weekly growth for the last three weeks against the basket of currencies on fears that the Ebola virus can affect the economy in the run-up to the Federal Reserve meeting next week.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9560. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9620.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished trading at around 85.49. Despite the mixed news the pair EUR / USD finished the trading day in the "green zone". The October release by the IFO Institute came out worse than traders had expected, at the level of 103.2, showing a minimum value since December 2012. According to the press release the German economy is experiencing serious difficulties because of the world geopolitical tensions. The report about the changes in M3 money supply has been showing an upward trend for 4 months in a row in the euro area which is a positive factor for inflation. The ECB loose monetary policy is beginning to give the first results, but to talk about the CPI growth is now too early. However, traders opened "longs" to the single European currency, based on downward correction development after the US Federal Reserve meeting.

The pair GBP/USD was in demand amid the profit-taking continuation on short positions and the UK positive macroeconomic statistics. According to the British industry confederation the October retail sales release is slightly better than market participants had expected that has been welcomed by traders amid the economic growth slowdown in the third quarter. However, it should be noted that the UK short and long term bond yields extension is a negative factor for the British currency that is now revalued.

Traders continued to take profits on long positions in the pair USD/JPY. A similar action was also observed on the world's leading stock exchanges. During the day the pair dollar/yen has moderately declined and during the quotation it reached the mark of 107.60. There was no Japan and the US important macroeconomic statistics publication and against this background investors regained namely technical factors.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.10.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro was treated differently at the trades - the single currency initially declined against the dollar, and then again grew, but as a result recorded a small "profit". The Germany’s economic data, represented by the German Ifo institute, affected the euro but the US reports supported the single European currency.

The trading slightly changed according to this instrument. The euro bulls continue to push the price up to the nearest resistance level of 1.2790 amid the reduced volumes.

The testing level for its strength will be during the fundamental data release.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2850.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.2670, 1.2600.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pair GBP/USD, grew up at the yesterday's trading amid the weak activity. There was no reason for the pound sales and the UK economic statistics did not give any neutral information, the weak US economic data supported both the “cable” and the euro.

The corrective pound growth is low against the US dollar. Buyers has broken through and fixed above the downward trend line of 1.6100 at the low volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support level of 1.6030, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5950.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

We expect important events for this week that reflected on the yesterday's pair dollar/yen trading. In this case, besides the FOMC meeting results, investors are waiting for more solutions with the similar Japan’s meetings (where the monetary policy destiny is decided) and in a given situation investors decided to correct position and fix some profits that led to the dollar decline against the Japanese yen.

The trade is in the upward direction within the Japanese yen. The corrective price decline for three days is observed without the volume support.

The price is finding the first support at 107.60, the next one is at 107.10. The price is finding the resistance at 108.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 108.00, 108.50.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The market is expecting the key week events – the US FOMC meeting that ends today explains the lack of activity. The low dollar sales were a topic of the US news, pointing to the US uneven housing market recovery and the economic activity slowdown in Texas. The property purchase signed contracts rose in the secondary market in September after the August decline, but was significantly lower than it was expected.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9430. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

We observe a bearish sentiment within the US dollar - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished trading at around 85.36. The pair EUR / USD has been on a positive note for three trading days in a row. The pair sharply fell on yesterday trades. Traders' attention was focused on the US release. A report on the consumer durable goods orders came out worse than the forecasted medians in September, showing a 1.3% decline while we were observing the consumer confidence positive data by the Conference Board.

The pair GBP/USD enjoyed a moderate demand during the day amid the short positions opening within the US dollar along the entire market. The consumer confidence release by the Conference Board rose to 94.5 in October, showing multi-year highs amid the employment growth in the United States, thus freezing bulls’ enthusiasm within the British currency.

The bulls are returning to the equity markets that supports the pair USD/JPY demand. The US stock market is rapidly developing; the high-tech index Nasdaq is the growth leader that shows us the strong bullish trend. Against this background, even the US negative release on consumer durable goods orders could not spoil the bullish sentiment and after the quotations reduction to the mark of 107.70 we observed the pair strong demand and the position recovery. The pair sharply increased at the end of the yesterday trades.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.10.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The current sentiment on the single European currency can hardly be called positive, but the "bears" do not hurry to resume active operations.

We got the disappointing data from France – the consumer confidence in the second eurozone economy fell by one point in October this year. The French consumer confidence index dropped from 86 points to 85 points. The interviewed economists assumed that the rate would remain unchanged at the level of 86 points.

The pair euro/dollar came close to the downward trend line of 1.2730 and fell down.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2600. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2790.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price falls below the level of 1.2670 the downward movement will be continued.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pair GBP/USD tried to fall below 1.6100 amid the UK weak data and still remains there.

The mortgages approvals came weaker than it had expected from 61 267 to 62 250.

The money supply was also weaker than it had expected - at -0.7% vs. 0.5%, reflecting the lower price pressure.

The pair GBP/USD failed to update the last week maximum level of 1.6180.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The level of 1.6100 testing may lead to the price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.6030, 1.5950.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

After the US consumer confidence data the dollar/yen is trading with 0.15% decrease. The world stock markets growth is still keeping - the Japanese Nikkei stock index rose by 0.74%.

The investors ignored the sharp industrial production recovery in Japan that rose by 2.7% in September in comparison with August against the expected 2.2% growth.

The USD/JPY was consolidating below the strong resistance level of 108.00 and then it grew. The pair closed the trades above the resistance level of 108.50.

The price is finding the first support at 108.00, the next one is at 107.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 108.50, the next one is at 109.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 109.00. After breaking 109.00 the buyers may go to 109.50.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The US currency raised at the end the yesterday trades. Earlier the franc rose against the dollar after the mixed US data.

The published report showed that the consumer confidence index rose to 94.5 pp in October against the expected level of 87 pp. The previous value was revised to 89.0 pp (from 86.0 pp).

The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9430. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

31.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

The day was marked by an increased volatility - traders delayed the two-day meeting announcement by the US Federal Reserve. The monetary regulator announced the QE-3 program completion as it was expected.

The Fed repeated a familiar phrase to all investors about the need to keep rates low for an "extended period of time". The short-term inflationary forecast remains negative because of the lower energy price and other factors. The monetary regulator did not explain what these factors could be. It is quite possibly be the dollar revaluation; however, the monetary authorities have not answered.

The labor market progress was not reviewed - the Fed pointed to the steady employment growth that in future can contribute to the rapid rates increase. As traders did not hear the phrase that monetary authorities are concerned about the "strong dollar" - they hurried back to the market and began to buy the US currency.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

31.10.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The dollar perspectives are improving besides the weak euro zone economic indicators that triggered expectations for the additional monetary policy easing measures by the ECB, thereby putting pressure on the pair EUR/USD. The dollar rose to the current session beginning after the US Federal Reserve expressed optimism about the employment situation. The optimistic perspectives assessment surprised the market that led to the short positions closure within the dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement is to be continued. The pair may go to 1.2500 soon.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK will present the housing price index for October.

The pound tried to test the support level of 1.5950 after the disappointing British statistics publication. The approved mortgages applications showed the approvals reduced to 61.267K against 62.250K that confirms the real estate sector strength. As for the money supply data, the index fell by 0.7% against the forecasted 0.5% growth, indicating the weak price pressures.

There was a rapid price rebound down from the downward trend line of 1.6180 acting as an inclined resistance line. Due to the active pound decrease against the US dollar, sellers were able to break through and consolidate below the strong support level of 1.6030.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5950, the next one is at 1.5870. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.6100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The price is going down. We expect the level of 1.5870 testing soon.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen continued to fall against the dollar. The US dollar can influence the exchange rate dynamics. Japan will publish the consumer inflation and the unemployment data for September.

The buyers break through the strong resistance level of 108.50 upwards. The level breakthrough occurred amid the low volumes; however, the mark of 109.00 has been already overcome.

The trading on the inside daily chart is still in the uplink channel direction. Therefore, the bullish trend is still relevant, despite such small growth volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.50. The price is finding the resistance at 109.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 109.50 for a steady growth.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair dollar/franc will be trading in the higher range supported by a positive attitude towards the dollar, the Swiss currency sales with the declining pair franc/yen and the soft monetary policy by the Swiss National Bank. The October economic barometer KOF will be released in Switzerland.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9680.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9620. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9680.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.11.2014

Fundamental analysis

The trades opening gave us a hope that the beginning of the week would be in the volatile direction. The US dollar has sharply grown up against all of the major competitors after of the China manufacturing activity (PMI) indicator decrease to the 5- months low in October. However, the "bulls" call about the US dollar was developed only in the dollar dispute with the yen where the US dollar continued its growth formed by the Bank of Japan last Friday when it announced the easing program expansion. The trades against the European majors were reduced to the consolidation range and ended on the opening prices relative to the pound and with a very slight increase to the euro.

The news calendar did not please the investors with any important information volumes - the activity index data (PMI) in Europe and the US was published and showed a good result. However, the short-term optimism caused by the UK information, was suppressed by the US reports that the prices returned to their original positions. The data published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported the activity growth in the US manufacturing sector in October. The PMI index has risen to the level of 59.0 after 56.6 in September when it was expected to see a slowdown to 56.0.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.11.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The single European currency held the trading against the dollar in the side consolidation and was closed with a minor plus at the end of the day. The technical factors presented by the strong support levels where the euro/dollar fell supported the euro.

The bulls broke through the strong resistance level of 1.2500 upwards within the euro in the short term. At this moment the insignificant breakthrough is not supported by the trade volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2670.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target – 1.2500. After fixing below the first target, the level 1.2400 will become the next one.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The beginning of the week was negative for the British pound – the pound fell against the dollar under the sentiment pressure caused by the China news. However, the British currency leveled all the losses during the trades and even some time it rose against the dollar. The good “cable” sentiment provided the UK economic data that announced the indicator activity result in the UK manufacturing sector.

At the moment the price is between two important levels of 1.6030 - 1.5950. The breakthrough of one will be a good signal for the trade in the breakthrough direction.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5950, the next one is at 1.5870. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.6100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The trend is going downwards. After the trend line 1.5950 breakthrough the way to the support 1.5870 will be opened.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen sales were continued, despite the fact that it was a day off because of the holiday in Japan on Monday. The BoJ statement on Friday expressed even more clearly the contrast between the Japan monetary policy and the US regulators that reinforced and supports the dollar growth impulse against the Japanese yen. In addition, the Japan Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) supports the yen sales about the fact that it plans to increase significantly the foreign stocks share in their portfolio, and it is a negative factor for the Japanese currency.

The growth rates fell in the area round the resistance level 114.20, of which at this time formed a downward pullback. At the same time the formed correction was also not supported by volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 113.00, the next one is at 112.50. The price is finding the resistance at 114.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 112.50 leads to a price rebound upwards. The upward bounce potential target is 114.20.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc continued to consolidate against the dollar amid the speculations that the solid economic data increases the probability of beginning interest rates process in the United States in the middle of next year. The pair slightly declined at the end of the trades.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9680.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9620. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9680.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.