Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

We can observe a mixed trend in the foreign exchange market. The pair EUR/USD consolidated during the day near the 26th figure against the US mixed news. The ADP population employment index came out better than the forecast at 213 000. This level was higher than the annual average which can count on the positive Non-Farm release. However, the ISM manufacturing sector showed a reduction to 56.6% in September which once again confirms the economic growth slowdown in the 3rd quarter.

The PMI manufacturing sector released by Markit Economics has been showing a decline for three months in a row. This year third quarter turned out to be the weakest for the manufacturing economic sector that finds its reflection in the final GDP release. The strong sales also had a negative impact on the pound at the London stock market.

The USD/JPY was able to overcome the 110th figure, but the bulls could not hold on it. The dollar with the yen sharply decreased. Many traders hurried up to take profits, besides we have seen the sales continuation in the world's leading stock exchange. The investors’ escape from risky assets has traditionally supported the demand for the "safe-haven" yen.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.10.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

This week main event was the ECB meeting results announcement. All market participants' attention was focused on the press conference by the ECB President Mario Draghi.

The latest CPI index release showed the inflationary pressure reduction in the euro area to 0.3% and now the investors are looking forward to the further measures being implemented, directed to prevent the deflation threat.

It is planned the EUR/USD corrective growth rate. The bullish views are getting more popular.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The level of 1.2730 retest may lead to the price rebound down. We do not exclude the fall to 1.2600. The way to the mark 1.2500 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound is under pressure this week amid the UK weak macroeconomic statistics. The September PMI construction sector index can also be negative, due to lower activity in the mortgage market.

The tone is negative in the market and the pair broke downwards the support level of 1.6180.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.6100 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.6030 will be opened.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US and Japan stock markets looks very bearish which is a negative factor for the pair. According to ADP, the change in the US private sector population employment amounted to 213K in September, against the expected 210K.

The Markit manufacturing PMI amounted to 57.5 in September against the expected 58.5, and the ISM manufacturing PMI amounted to 56.6 in September against the expected 58.5.

The USD/JPY decline is at the strong support level of 108.00.

The price is finding the first support at 108.50, the next one is at 108.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 109.40. After breaking 109.40 the buyers may go to 110.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc strengthened against the dollar. There are rumors about the Swiss National Bank intervention (SNB).

In September 2011, the SNB set a lower limit for the EUR/CHF at the level of 1.2000 with a view to prevent excessive franc appreciation amid the strengthening economic crisis in the Eurozone.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9430. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the target - 0.9560. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9620.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

The euro finished the last week with the quotation decrease. The US dollar stopped its decline against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) has finished the trading week above 85.65. The ECB's monetary policy meeting release publication was the main event for the pair EUR/USD. At the press conference, Mario Draghi said that the monetary control would begin the ABS assets purchases process worth up to $1 trillion euro in mid October. The short-term inflation forecasts were again lowered in the euro area which is a negative factor for the European economy. It is worth noting that we have not seen the EUR/USD strong sales. Traders took profits on short positions after the ECB president press conference.

The pair GBP/USD has been traded for three days in a row in the "red zone". The positive data about the UK construction purchasing managers’ index for September has not helped the British currency- the index was better than the forecasted medians at the level of 64.2. The pound sterling was stabbed back after receiving the10-year bond yield from the bond market that fell to one-year low amid the Brent oil quotations fall. The US and UK bond yields differential has expanded once again.

The dollar/yen has shown an upward movement at the end of the trading week.The pair USD/JPY remains under pressure amid sales on the world markets shares. Investors continue to escape from risky assets that increase the demand for the "safe haven" yen. Even the US positive macroeconomic statistics has not helped the bulls- the initial jobless claims fell to the level of 287 thousand last week which is a positive factor for the labor market data.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.10.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro has started to behave volatile after the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi started the conference in Naples, Italy. The ECB left interest rates at the record low level, as many traders had expected. The refinancing rate was maintained at the level of 0.05% and the deposit rates remained unchanged at the level with minus of 0.2%.

The euro sharply fell at the end of the trades. Earlier the trades were within the EUR/USD upward correction. Bulls have raised the price on the high volume, bringing it closer to the strong resistance level of 1.2740. The pair fell to a new low at the support level of 1. 2500.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2670.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.2400.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound continued its decline and set a new three weeks low, despite the strong data about the Britain construction sector. The UK construction sector business activity index exceeded forecasts in September and increased up to 64.2, while it had expected the rise to 63.5. However, the pound fell after the Broadbent’s statement, the Bank of England representative that the UK is not still ready to raise the interest rates.

The British pound continues to stay in the downward channel. The bears have broken the support level of 1.6030 and were fixed below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5950, the next one is at 1.5870. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.6100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5950 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.5870.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen continued its decline after its rise provoked by the Finance vice minister Nobuhide Minorikava stated that the weak currency was affected for the companies, forcing up energy costs.

The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar. Amid the high volumes sellers tried to break through the support level of 108.00. But such a breakthrough has not been successful and the price bounced upward.

The price is finding the first support at 109.40, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.00, the next one is at 110.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 109.00, 108.50. When the price comes to the level 108.50 it may consolidate.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc continues to decrease after the minor consolidation. The franc ended the last trading week with sharp decline, reaching new lows.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long to the target - 0.9750.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

The majors began to win back their position against the dollar on Monday. The US dollar has strengthened its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the last week at 86.65, the highest level since July 2010. The main event was the US labor market release.

It should be noted that the key parameters are significantly better than the forecasted medians - the unemployment rate fell to 5.9% in September, the non-farm sector employment increased by 248 thousand. It should also be noted the trade balance report has come out better than the traders’ expectations. The positive macroeconomic data points out to the strong economic growth in the third quarter (3%) which has increased the US dollar and the American corporate bonds demand. Those who have written the US off from the accounts came out at the losing end.

The week news is inferior to the last session, concerning the significant economic publications. The particular attention will be paid to the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes release. Investors will try to draw a conclusion about the US rate increase deadline. It is possible that the news weakness will possibly decrease the market activity and there will be observed a range trading tendency. However, we believe that the Fed is inclined to tighten the monetary policy, leaving priorities to the US dollar, especially after the last employment report about the rate hike within a very short timeframe not later than mid-2015.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.10.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The European currency rose at the beginning of the week. Earlier the euro was being sold off against the dollar amid the ECB members ’ “dovish statements”, their confidence about the Fed’s and the European regulator’s differently directed monetary policies as well as the Eurozone weak economic statistics that points out to the downward trend continuation.

The euro looked very bearish, breaking the support level of 1.2600 last week. The level breakdown has occurred amid the increased volume. Then the pair bounced upward from the support level of 1.2500.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2670.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect a flat. The downward bounce potential targets are 1.2500, 1.2400.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The sterling tries to grow. The British pound was also under pressure from the US dollar last week and it is worth noting that the "cable" was sold more actively than the euro. Obviously, the investors started to doubt the fact that the Bank of England would start to tighten its policy in a short-term.

The downward trend stopped at the level of 1.5950.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5950, the next one is at 1.5870. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.6100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the levels of 1.6050 or 1.6100 may lead to the price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the levels of support 1.5950, 1.5870.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US dollar stopped its growth and fell against the yen. Earlier it marked the new yearly highs amid the Fed and BoJ monetary policies increase expectations and the Bank of Japan governor Mr. Kuroda's readiness to take the necessary measures to achieve the inflation target of 2%.

The buyers have managed to return the price into the rising channel, breaking up the resistance level of 109.40. The breakthrough has occurred amid the high volume. Then the price decreased and tested the level of 109.00.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.40, the next one is at 110.00.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After consolidating above the level of 109.00 the price will bounce upward to the level of 110.00. After the level of 110.00 breakthrough upward the way to the resistance level of 110.60 will be opened.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The American dollar is decreasing, against which the Swiss currency begins to strengthen.The dollar index reached a 4-year high after the US solid labor market report earlier that confirmed the world's largest economy recovery continuation.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9680. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

We will receive the Germany industrial production data for August with the European trading session opening. The industrial orders release pointed to the reducing strong production rate and in this connection we should expect the data release to be slightly worse than the forecasted medians. The US and German 10-year bond yield moderately declined on Monday, giving the bulls a little breath of fresh air. However, we do not expect the strong euro/dollar growth – the eurozone inflation expectations remain still low.

Today traders pay a special attention to the UK industrial production report. Both the industrial orders reduction and the 3-months PMI index decline point to the data release that is worse than the consensus forecast.

The pair dollar/yen corrected near the 109th figure amid the empty macroeconomic calendar and the current levels are good for the long positions opening for two reasons. Firstly the US dollar bullish trend is still in force amid the positive macroeconomic statistics. Secondly we expect the upward trend reinforcement on the US and Japan stock markets.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.10.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The single European currency has grown against the US dollar and started a consolidation. The technical levels have supported the euro/dollar and, in fact, the pair returned to its positions which were lost earlier.

The Germany industrial orders sharply fell in August. The PMI industrial sector grew to the lifting area in September.

The pair EUR/USD is correcting to the downward trend line of 1.2700.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the support levels 1.2600 or 1.2500 may lead to the price rebound upward.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound has grown against the dollar. The reason for such increased pound interest was the strong technical levels presented by the strong support as the UK news had no important messages.

We expect the industrial production indices for August. According to the forecasts, there will be good results that can keep the pound interest at the high level. The pair GBP/USD is testing the resistance level of 1.6100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential target is 1.5950.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen started to recover immediately before the next Bank of Japan meeting outcome.

The Japan's economy continued to recover at a moderate temps; however, the definite manufacturing sector is due to the sales tax increase.

The Bank of Japan has lowered the industrial output; the segment weakness is partially due to reserve structure changes.

The pair USD/JPY is correcting to the strong support level of 108.00.

The price is finding the first support at 108.00, the next one is at 107.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 108.50, the next one is at 109.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 109.00, 109.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc continues its consolidation after the minor correction near the reached lows against the US dollar. We expect the USA consumer credit volume data for August.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9680.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9680. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar has weakened slightly against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at around 85.68. The EUR/USD remained under pressure amid the negative German industrial production release. In August, the index fell to a record 4% which indicates the possible European largest economy recession.

The Great Britain also issued the industrial production release for August. The data came out worse than the forecasted medians, but were not as bad as the German ones. At first traders rushed to sell the pound sterling against the negative macroeconomic release, but then the bullish market sentiment was observed.

The pair USD/JPY has finished in the "red zone" for the second day in a row. According to the Bank of Japan meeting release there appeared the negative economic impact after the sales tax introduction. Also the monetary regulator pointed out to the industrial production weakness. Despite the negative comments the Japanese yen was able to strengthen its position against the American dollar. The main dollar/yen sale reason appeared to be the American stock markets that fell from 1 to 1.5%.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.10.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The tone became negative in the market after the report had noted the August sharp German industrial orders decline, raising fears that the eurozone largest economy is falling into a recession. The FOMC meeting minutes were published.

The downward trend line of 1.2670 is a main resistance for this pair. This level retest was followed by the price downward rebound. Buyers came to this downward trend line amid the reduced volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.

The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go downward to the level of 1.2600. After breaking 1.3665 the pair may go to 1.2500.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound set up the two day high and then it again rebounded. The UK industrial production is not in its best condition.

The downward trend line retest of 1.6100 was followed by the consolidation. Then the price dropped down and returned to the support level of 1.6030.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The price is possible to consolidate below the level 1.6060. The potential decrease target is the support level 1.5950.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen strengthened after the International Monetary Fund had lowered its global economic growth forecast for both this and next year and had warned that the global economic recovery was weak and uneven.

The sellers were able to break through the strong support level of 108.50. The price did not manage to consolidate below the level despite it decreased to 108.00. This level was an additional obstacle, from which the pair bounced upward.

The price is finding the first support at 108.00, the next one is at 107.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 108.50, the next one is at 109.40.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horisontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 109.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc has strengthened its position on Tuesday amid the technical correction against the dollar. Even the weak national statistics publication did not stop the franc growth the last few days.

The retail sales report issued in Switzerland showed an increase of 1.9% against 0.7%. Traders successfully used this opportunity to justify the franc strengthening.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9680.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9430. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

The last Federal Reserve meeting report knocked down the US dollar - the dollar index basket (USDX) came to the mark 85.35. Then the dollar won back some positions.

The FOMC currently believe to keep the federal fund rates low "for an extended period of time." It was told that the dollar revaluation against its major competitors could prevent inflationary pressure and also lead to the negative payment balance increase. It was emphasized that the Eurozone weak economy has the possibility to continue the dollar quotations growth in the foreign exchange market.

The euro remained under pressure after the data which reported a sharp August industrial orders decline in Germany, fearing that the euro zone's largest economy deviates towards the recession.

The disappointing data reinforced our views that the European Central Bank would resort to the new stimulating measures to promote economic growth.

According to the two-day policy meeting results, the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged, but it acknowledged that the reducing consumption after the April sales tax increase leads to an economic weakness.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.10.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro fell again at the end of the trading day. Earlier during the FOMC meeting minutes’ publication the US dollar weakened sharply towards the major currency pairs, breaking through the strong levels. The euro received some support with the some long dollar positions closing after the FOMC meeting minutes’ publication.

The resistance level was the downward trend line of 1.2670 for the EUR/ USD. Technically, the trend line break through has led to the downward trend upward turn. We expect the price growth to the nearest resistance level of 1.2850 in the long term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2600. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2790.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movment and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.2850.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Britain currency decreased at the yesterday’s trading. Before this the pound has considerably strengthened its position against the dollar.

Investors are waiting for the Bank of England interest rates decision that will be announced today.

The upper bound channel breakthrough of 1.6100 was followed by the high volume formation. The subsequent growth rates allow customers to consolidate above the strong resistance level of 1.6180 where the price is being traded now.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.6180 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.6270.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US dollar has fallen against the Japanese yen. The Japanese yen received some support after the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had expressed his concern about the yen weakness impact on the national economy.

The level of 108.50 upward testing was unsuccessful. Sellers returned the price below the support level of 108.00, thus confirming their intention to continue the downward trend.

The level of 108.00 reverse break was amid the high volume.

The price is finding the first support at 107.60, the next one is at 107.10. The price is finding the first resistance at 108.00, the next one is at 108.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 107.10, 106.70.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar managed to increase at the trades end. It is worth to be noted that earlier the dollar reduced its achievements against the major currencies after the FOMC meeting publication where the world’s economic recovery risks were noted, connected with the global growth deceleration and the dollar rise.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9430. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9620.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9430. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

There is an uncertainty sentiment in the currency market - the US dollar has significantly strengthened against its major competitors in the recent months and the technical correction is long overdue, however, the dollar bears’ first attempt was unsuccessful. The Fed gave hope to the bears last week but the “black gold” quotations decrease supported the American currency later. It should be noted that the oil sales have a negative impact on the whole world's leading economy, as inflation is now below the level of 2% and the oil bearish trend will have a significant pressure on the CPI.

Against this backdrop, investors think which currency will be the most affected due to the low inflation expectations. In this regard, we have observed the US dollar demand - traders left the commodity market and transferred their assets in cash, namely in the US dollar.

The initial jobless claims release which came out better than the forecasted medians has also raised the dollar bulls’ sentiment. Four-week initial jobless claims average set a fresh yearly low at around 287.75K which indicates the American labor market positive trends.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.10.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Investors’ sentiment has changed with the eurozone economic data and the European currency was in the sales wave. The price movement, directed to the rising channel, has turned down.

The price turned back to the support level of 1.2600 amid the high-volume that has acted as the strong resistance for a long time. The level breakthrough has not occurred yet.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.2600. The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 1.2500, 1.2400.

Pound(GBP)

General overview

The pound tried to continue its growth against the dollar, but it ended the last week with a decline as the euro did. The UK important events have not provoked any significant reaction in the market as the Bank of England did not change its monetary policy parameters.

The downtrend is still in progress. The corrective growth rates were stopped from the support level of 1.6100. The downward trend line of 1.6180 did not let buyers to go upwards. The trend line testing was followed by the price rebound to the support level of 1.6030.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.6030 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.5950 will be opened.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The trades were in the context of the dollar rise for the most major currency pairs. However, this correlation was ignored by the Japanese yen which gradually leads to the position recovery after the long decrease.

The stock markets’ falling optimism and the neutral situation in the US national debts market resulted in the investors’ return to the Japanese yen.

The key support level of 108.00 was broken through. In this case, the current trade is in the descending channel direction. It should also be noted that the trading volumes are at the high levels.

The price is finding the first support at 107.60, the next one is at 107.10. The price is finding the first resistance at 108.00, the next one is at 108.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 107.10, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 106.70.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc has lost some won positions against the US dollar and started a consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9680.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9500. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9430.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

The first half of the week passed quietly enough amid the lack of important macroeconomic statistics. The EUR/USD consolidated near the resistance level of 1.2698. Traders do not hurry to open new positions and in this regard the trade passed quietly enough. *

The speech of Fed’s deputy head S. Fischer caused some pressure on the US dollar who stated that the slower foreign economic growth can make the Fed treat the soft policy closure less aggressively. The US bond treasury collapse had a negative impact on the dollar.

We got the German wholesale prices which pointed out to the continued year decrease -0.9% y / y vs. -0.6% y / y and the ECB board member P. Pratt touched once again in his speech the subject upon the eurozone deflation risks. *

The pair GBP/USD has reached the level of 1.6125, after that the bears assumed a counter offensive. The UK bond yields set a fresh yearly low on Monday, indicating the weaker inflationary pressure. In this regard, the British pound will not be in demand among traders as the Bank of England can take a pause in tightening the monetary policy in early 2015. *

Despite the fact that the long-term trend is still in force – the USD / JPY traders do not rush to open long positions. The external background is clearly not on the bulls’ side – the first reason is the US dollar decrease against its major counterparts and the second is the downward trend in the American market.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.10.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The US dollar suffered a loss for the first time in three trading sessions after the Fed member’s statement about the possible interest rates rise delay due to the world economic slowdown. *

The eurozone expects negative news. The August industrial production is expected to be-1.5% against its growth by 1.0% in July, the ZEW economic sentiment indicator for October in Germany is expected to decline from 6.9 to 0.2 points, the ZEW economic sentiment in eurozone is expected to decline from 14.2 to 7.1. *

The euro corrective growth against the US dollar is not supported by the trade volumes. *

The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

Trading recommendations

As a result of the resistance level of 1.2670 breakthrough upwards, the next target for buyers will be the mark of 1.2730.

Pound (GBP)

We do not expect positive news for the British pound- the BRC retail sales for September showed a 2.1% year-on-year decline against the 1.3% growth in August. *

The UK consumer price index (CPI) for September is expected to decline from 1.5% to 1.4% y/y. *

The base CPI (excluding motor vehicles) is expected to be 1.8% y/y vs. 1.9% y/y in August. *

The UK retail price index (RPI) is expected to be 2.3% y / y vs. 2.4% y / y. *

The producer prices are expected to decline at the entrance by 0.4% m/m, in the output by 0.1% m/m *

The pair GBP/USD is corrected to the downward trend line of 1.6200. The trading volumes do not support the formed correction. *

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential rebound target will be the month low- the resistance level of 1.6030.

Yen (JPY)

After a ten year reduction the Japanese is going to rebound amid the US stock indices decline by 1.3% -1.6%, and the Nikkei225reduction by 1.45% and the producer price index fall for September by 3.5% y/y vs. 3 9% y / y in August. *

We expect the neutral retail sales data and strong industrial production ones and construction indicators on Thursday and on Friday. After these data the yen can rise up. *

The pair USD/JPY is consolidating below the strong resistance level of 107.35 *

The short-term price consolidation below 107.35 is more likely to lead to a rebound and to the further price decline. *

The price is finding the first support at 106.70, the next one is at 106.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.10, the next one is at 107.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential target for the price decline is the support level of 106.30. *

Franc (CHF)

The Swiss franc continues to consolidate near the lows against the dollar. The Switzerland Central bank head Jordan said that the regulator would protect the exchange rate lower threshold through intervention if it was necessary.

We observe the dollar weaknesses against the major currencies, against the yen in particular as investors argue once again about the possible earlier interest rate increase by the US central bank. *

From a technical point of view, the USD/CHF is trading above 0.9500. It is presented below support at the level of 0.9470. The resistance is at the level of 0.9600 and 0.9680 and is upwards at the level of 0.9830. *

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We recommend the short positions with the first target at 0.9430. If the first target is overcome, the next target will be 0.9370.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was able to regain some lost ground - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at around 85.84. The pair EUR/USD is not still able to determine the direction. If it was not for the Fed's statement, the dollar revaluation would be able to prevent inflationary pressure - the bears were able to set the fresh lows. The bulls were able to overclock quotes to the mark of 1.2767 in the Asian session amid the US and German 10-year bonds spread decline. But after the weak release by the ZEW Institute, we observed the price decrease. The oil market sales only intensify deflationary expectations and, in this regard, we saw a fresh one-year low on the German 10-year bond yields.

The pair GBP/USD fell strongly - the trade ended by 1.13% quotes decline. CPI showed a 1.2% year- on- year decline in September which indicates the lower inflationary pressure. Against this background, the UK monetary regulator will not hurry to raise interest rates that is a negative factor for the currency. Traders were trying to get rid of the British pound the whole day that led to the massive pound sell-offs along the entire market. *

Stock markets showed a positive trend the whole day which supported the moderate US dollar demand amid the lack of interesting US and Japan macroeconomic releases.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.10.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The Eurozone economic news was clearly not on the European currency side. In fact all the published indicators caused the sales resumption and the euro ended the session with its decline against the US dollar. *

The euro corrective growth against the dollar was stopped by the lower bound channel breakthrough of 1.2790. The breakthrough of such a strong resistance was amid the low volumes and the further EUR volatile news.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2850.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The current upward movement is considered as a correction so far. The correction can reach 1.2850 where we expect a return to the fall.

Pound (GBP)

Like the euro the British pound also was under the strong pressure against the US dollar. The pound sales were caused by the UK economic data, noting that the UK inflation became slower in September than it was expected. We expect the UK employment data and the salary dynamics information. *

Negative fundamental data within the GBP (Consumer Price Index) led to a confident bearish trend continuation. At yesterday's trading session traders were able to get out of the rising channel and broke through the support level of 1.5950 downwards.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations *

The decrease shall be continued. The targets are 1.5860 and 1.5770.

Yen (JPY)

The events at the yesterday's dollar/yen trading session showed non-permanent market views. Investors are more reluctant to take risks, concerning the global economic growth that has put pressure on the US dollar and the levels to which the US dollar fell were good for its sale. As a result, the US dollar traded against the yen in the narrow corridor and it had a very small plus at the end of the day.

The price is finding the first support at 105.70, the next one is at 105.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 106.30, the next one is at 106.70.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential target for the price decline is the support level of 105.20. *

Franc (CHF)

The US and eurozone weak macroeconomic data put pressure on the pound and the euro on Tuesday as investors continue to consider that the US economic prospects are better than the Europe ones. *

Against this background the US dollar has only won as it was able to recover after the Monday fall against the Swiss franc.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We recommend the short positions with the first target at 0.9430. If the first target is overcome, the next target will be 0.9370.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday we observed a high volatility in all financial markets due to the credit markets turbulence. All major global bond yields have sharply fallen, indicating the possible deflationary collapse in the short term. The US 10-year bond treasuries fell to the level of 1.86% that caused long dollar positions rapid elimination. Despite the fact that the German bonds also updated the yearly lows yields – the pair EUR / USD has sharply increased fearing that the Fed will not close the QE-3 this month.

The pair GBP / USD is still under pressure, despite the fact that it has completed the third trading day in positive area. The August unemployment rate reduced to the level of 6% in the UK and the moderate salary increase is a positive signal for the economy. If it was not for the lower inflationary pressure, traders would have an excellent opportunity to start a "bull rally." However, the low CPI is a strong deterrent and against this background the pound set a fresh low during the day for the past 11 months. The US and UK 10-year bond yields strongly expanded on Wednesday that was a negative factor for the British currency.

The pair USD/JPY came under a powerful sales wave on Wednesday amid the drastic US 10-year bond yields reduction. The US inflation expectations have weakened with the sales on the stock markets that point out to the possible deflationary spiral in the world's largest economy. In the light of this traders bought the yen.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.10.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The German inflation reports pointed out to the continued price stagnation in September that was at the very low levels after their final evaluation - September CPI has kept the previous two months indicators, having fixed 0.0% m/m and 0.8% y/y. The US economic weak data provided the euro growth popularity.

The US dollar sharply weakened its position against its major currency pairs. The formed correction was followed by very high volumes on many trade assets that indicate the further dollar decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The current upward movement is considered as a correction so far. The correction can reach 1.2850 where we expect a return to the fall. We expect the return to a decrease every moment now.

Pound (GBP)

The British pound has also increased against the US dollar. Buyers were able to return the price to the resistance level of 1.6100. In this case the price return was amid the very high trading volume.

Despite the fact that the high volume appeared within the bullish trade, the trend is still downward in the medium term. There can be formed the small price correction to the resistance level of 1.6100 in the short term. Or it will be the next descending trend line retest of 1.6180.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The decrease shall be continued. The targets are 1.5950 and 1.5860.

Yen (JPY)

The dollar/yen strengthened yesterday at the Asian session amid the Japanese stock market the support growth and the American session beginning. The Japanese yen strengthened sharply after the US news that caused the US bonds treasuries sharp drop.

The price is finding the first support at 105.70, the next one is at 105.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 106.30, the next one is at 106.70.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential target for the price decline is the support level of 105.20.

Franc (CHF)

The dollar exchange rate decreased with the stock quotations and the US bond yields after the US weak economic statistics.

The UK 10-year bond yields fell to 17-month low below 2 %.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We recommend the short positions with the first target at 0.9370. If the first target is overcome, the next target will be 0.9330.