Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis

[Valdis]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The euro/dollar recovered a few its losses in yesterday's trading.The EUR/USD came under a wave of sales after the Federal Reserve meeting release. In general, the market participants have not received any surprises - still two FOMC members Plosser and Fisher vote for an earlier monetary policy tightening. All other participants insist on the maintaining low interest rates for an "extended period of time." The inflation forecast still remains moderately negative while the unemployment rate forecast turned into positive direction.

The pound/dollar closed the last week gap. The GBP/USD is in demand against the positive employment release. The unemployment fell to the level of 6.2% in the UK, in addition we saw an average wage increase in July, that points to the positive CPI.

The pair USD/JPY continued its upward movement. The Bank of Japan gives to speculators a "green light" and we observed the yen devaluation against the negative macroeconomic statistics. The US and the Japan stock market growth increases the dollar/yen demand.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The pair is under pressure from the investors’ positive attitude towards the American currency and the European Central Bank easy policy.

There was a rebound from the downtrend line 1.2930 against the high volume based on the EUR/USD rates. The trend rebound was followed to the support level 1.2850. Then the pair returned to the level of 1.2030.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2850, the next one is at 1.2790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.3000.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued. The first target is the level 1.3000. We do not exclude the fall to 1.2850.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The published statistics showed the unemployment rate decrease by ILO to 6.2% against the expected 6.3%.

The most important was the message that two representatives of the Fed committee again offered to raise the interest rates by 0.25% at the last meeting.

The corrective pound growth was observed followed by the resistance level of 1.6340 breakthrough. The buyers came up to this level against the increased volumes backdrop.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6270. The price is finding the resistance at 1.6440.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential rebound target is the level of support 1.6100.

 

[Valdis]

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen continued to fall against the dollar. According to the FOMC meeting results that made us clear that the economy is growing at a moderate rate and the inflation is below the target level.

The asset purchase program has been reduced to $15 billion and apparently it will be completed in October this year. The basic interest rate remained at level of 0.25%. We can observe the price increase without any signal to a correction.

The price is finding the support at 107.10, the next one is at 106.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.60, the next one is at 108.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 109.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar rose sharply against all its major counterparts after the Federal Reserve meeting. The FOMC updated the main macroeconomic indicators’ forecasts: GDP in 2014, 2.0% 2.2% 2.1% against 2.3% in June; GDP in 2015 2.6% 3.0%; 2.6% 2.9% in 2016; 2.3% 2.5% in 2017. The Fed does not expect to achieve the inflation target level at least until 2016. The USD/CHF remains in the same range.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9330, the next one is at 0.9270. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9430.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9430.

 

[Valdis]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD was in demand against the published US negative macroeconomic statistics last week. The construction sector releases - the issued building permits volume and the new installation foundations number do not meet the forecasted median, despite the positive leading indicators growth. The Fed Chairman Janet Yellen points out that the US real estate sector is still experiencing some difficulties. Even the initial jobless claims decrease to the level of 280K was ignored by the market participants.

The GBP/USD has shown an upward trend awaiting the Scotland referendum failure. Many traders decided to fix their short positions on the British currency against its major competitors expecting that the Scotland residents will reject the separation from the United Kingdom. Against this background the “cable" growth was observed along the entire market. Nevertheless, the pair fell again.

The USD/JPY is achieving the higher results, despite the published Japan positive macroeconomic statistics and the US negative releases. The Japan Trade Balance showed the August negative balance reduction, but again we did not see the exports growth last month. Against this background, the pair dollar/yen quotes dropped to the level of 108.37, after that the bulls returned to the market and began to open "longs". The consolidation was observed after the weak reports publication on the US construction sector that only confirms the strong bullish trend.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

For the euro, as well as for most major USD pairs, the last week ended with the correction increase. The buyers are able to return back to the price for the level of 1.2930, which was break through against the high volume.

The price correction growth was not supported by the trade volumes. Apparently, the level of 1.2930 retest led to the price downward bounce.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2850, the next one is at 1.2930.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The Cloud is descending.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential targets are 1.2790 and 1.2730.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound fell at the end of last week trading. Before this the pound rose to the two-week high against the US dollar and the two-year euro rise occurred due to the Scottish independence referendum preliminary results which showed that the Scots majority voted against the separation.

The British pound is recovering after a two-month price decline. This time the buyers could to break above the resistance level and the downward trend line of 1.6440. The breakthrough occurred on the increased volume. At the end of the trading the pair decreased below the level of 1.6340.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6180. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6440.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.6340 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.6440.

 

[Valdis]

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The American dollar continues to strengthen against the Japanese yen without any correction kickbacks. And despite the fact that the overall USD majors correlation is now aimed at the dollar decline.

The support level of 108.50 was formed which will act as additional obstacle towards the possible price downwards correction.

The price is finding the support at 108.50, the next one is at 108.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. As long as the price is trading in the upward channel buyers remain strong. The bulls’ target is the level of 109.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar/franc fell below 0.9330, as the SNB has decided yet to lower the interest rates. It did not lead to the Swiss franc demand and the pair rose to 0.9430 area.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9330. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9430.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price above in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The Cloud is growing.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9430. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9500.

 

[Valdis]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The American dollar has significantly strengthened its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades with the maximum levels for the last 4 years. Against the empty macroeconomic calendar the EUR/USD decreased after the last week correction growth. The traders actively sold the euro, expending the differential returns on the 10 –year American and the German state bonds. It should be noted that the short euro positions were observed along the entire market.

As the old trading rule says «buy the rumor, sell the fact”. 55.3% of voters in the Scotland referendum opposed the independence and against this background we observed the GBP/USD long positions closing. Prior to the official results announcement the British currency voting quotes reached the level of 1.6523 at the moment, after which we observed a sharp pound rise and against this negative background the «cable» has lost 0.68%.

The Japan continues to disappoint the traders by a negative macroeconomic statistics. This time we got the index activity weak report in all economic sectors which showed a reduction of 0.2% in July. This indicator decline has been observed for 2 months in a row that points to the service and the manufacturing difficulties. Against this negative background the bullish rally for the USD/JPY continued and at the moment the prices reached the level of 109.45. The last time the dollar rose so high in September 2008.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Euro remains under pressure. The published German inflation data fulfilled the analysts' forecasts and it was completely ignored by the market. Thus, the producer price index fell by 0.1% m/m and 0.8% y/y in August.

The level of 1.2930 retesting was followed by a price drop back below against the increased volume. The channel upper limit rebound allowed the sellers to break and consolidate below the support level of 1.2850.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2850, the next one is at 1.2930.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.2790 soon.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound rose after the Scotland referendum results which showed that the Scots do not want to separate from the UK. The pair then fell again.

The corrective wave from 1.6440 was stopped by the descending trend line. Approach to the price trend line was followed by a deep test in an attempt to break above this resistance. However, the "buyers’ exploits" came to an end and the pair decreased to the level of 1.6340 area.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6180. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6440.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.6270.

 

[Valdis]

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen fell against the most currencies after the Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that the regulator would not hesitate to change the monetary policy if it was necessary.

The American dollar is actively strengthened against the Japanese yen during the second month. The pair USD/JPY upward trend is moving in the rising channel direction and is actively supported by the trade volumes.

The price is finding the support at 108.50, the next one is at 108.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 102.60, 102.75. We believe after this the growth will be continued.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc continued to consolidate against the comprehensive dollar rise. The dollar shows the longest growth period since Lyndon Johnson was a head of the White House and after the Federal Reserve made us clear that the unprecedented program for the economic stimulation is almost completed in the coming year.

The dollar index has been rising for the 10th week in a row. This is the longest growth period since March 1967. For the last month the dollar rose in value by 3.1%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9330. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9430.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price above in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9430. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9500

 

[Valdis]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The Forex market trading week started rather quietly. The consumer confidence weak release in the euro area, as well as the ECB governor Mario Draghi’s speech about the loose monetary policy that will be preserved for a "long time" activated the euro/dollar bears, but they were not able to pull them forwards.

The US negative macroeconomic data also played its role. The August sales in the secondary housing market showed a decrease of 1.8% and this is the third release of a weak construction sector. The housing market is traditionally sensitive to changes in the economy and these reports are the first alarm bell for the GDP final release for the 3rd quarter.

The pair GBP/USD was growing up against the EUR/GBP cross-rate reduction, as well as the negative sales release in the US secondary market. It should be noted that the quotations growth is restrained.

Global stock markets overstock coupled with the US housing market weak statistics putting downward pressure on the pair USD/JPY. However, attempts to develop a corrective bearish movement were unsuccessful. The USD/JPY uptrend is still stable and very few factors can break it at the moment.

Euro (EUR)

General overview

In the opinion of the central bank governor, the risk balance will be shifted to the weaker growth side if it is necessary, the ECB is ready to take additional measures to stimulate the economy and avoid deflation.

The pair EUR/USD will be consolidated at the support level of 1.2850. The euro/dollar trading is below the resistance level which last week was cut through against the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2850, the next one is at 1.2790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.3000.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The level of 1.2930 retest may lead to a price rebound down. The bears need to break below 1.2850 for a steady decrease.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The current GBP/USD pair rise happened for several reasons. In particular, the UK market participants expect the published the mortgage loan publication from BBA.

The pair GBP/USD is corrected to a downward trend line of 1.6440. The fourth time, the pound intends to test the downward trend line of 1.6440.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6270. The price is finding the resistance at 1.6440.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward trend line 1.6440 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support level of 1.6270.

 

[Valdis]

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar/yen may continue to consolidate near the 109th figure. It is difficult to expect surprises from the US macroeconomic statistics in manufacturing sector according to PMI index. The Japan internal situation is negative.

The pair USD/JPY is corrected to the rising trend line of 108.50. Partly consolidation below 109.00 led to the downward correction.

The price is finding the support at 108.50, the next one is at 108.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement potential target is 109.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc continues to consolidate in the previous price range. The market is stable with the absence of important news. The dollar buying is still in demand. The US economy shows good results, so we should expect some movement from the Fed monetary policy.

The pair continues to consolidate at the top of the growth wave.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9330. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9500.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price above in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 0.9340 further on we expect a growth to 0.9450 where the pair may stop.

 

[Valdis]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

25.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD decreased at the trading day end. Before this the pair has completed a minimum quotation increase by 0.1%. Markit Economics has published a large number of France and the Germany releases. The France PMI as well as in the euro area also were released. It should be noted that in general, the data came out worse than the forecasted medians which confirms the economic growth slowdown in the European countries. Nevertheless, the traders ignored the negative statistics.

The GBP/USD has also demonstrated a lateral trend. The EUR/GBP cross-rate quotations decrease and the US moderately negative statistics on the business activity index in the manufacturing sector supported the pound demand.

The yen counterattack will not be long after the USD/JPY drop to 108.50/108.20, it is necessary to open long positions. The Japanese stock market closed the main session in the "red zone" that led to the dollar/yen sales. But then the bulls began to open "longs", based on the strong uptrend continuation. The US industrial sector PMI release was a little worse than the forecast, but the investors ignored these statistics.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The single currency remained under pressure after the latest data showed that the private sector business activity has grown slowly in September, raising expectations of additional stimulus by the European Central Bank.

The EUR corrective increase to the level of 1.2905 was followed by a short-term bounce rate down. The price has continued to decline without volumes.

The price is finding the support at 1.2730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2850, the next one is at 1.2930.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the support level of 1.2790. After breaking 1.2790 the pair may go to 1.2730.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The sterling slightly fell down. Earlier the pound fully compensated its losses.

Optimistic prospects for the Bank of England future actions give a support to the pound rate, as well as the political situation stabilization after the referendum on Scottish independence.

The British pound tried to rise to the downward trend line of 1.6440. The short-term increase was followed by the lower volumes and the price was immediately falling down.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6270. The price is finding the resistance at 1.6440.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.6340 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.6270, 1.6180.

 

[Valdis]

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen gained a support after the Prime Minister Abe reportedly said that the weak yen had both positive and negative consequences and he intended to monitor closely the weak yen impact to the regional economy, as well as small and medium enterprises.

The sellers tried to break below the support level of 108.50. The short-term testing led to the price upwards rebound.

The price is finding the support at 108.50, the next one is at 108.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 109.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss currency continues to lose its ground. The head of the Swiss National Bank, Jordan said the central bank would continue to defend the "threshold" franc to the euro. Meanwhile, the banker said that the franc slightly overrated and the regulator would take further action if it was necessary

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9330. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9500.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price above in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the target - 0.9500.

 

[Valdis]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

After a short falling the US dollar again is raised to new highs - the dollar index basket (USDX) has completed the trading day at 85.02. The main pair EUR/USD has fallen to the 28th figure after the extremely positive release publication for the US new home sales. In August the sales increased by a record 18%, that give us a good ground for a pessimism about the US economy prospects. The IFO business climate index in Germany showed the lowest level from February 2013 till September in Germany and against this negative background the bears began to reduce actively the euro/dollar.

The GBP/USD was trying to consolidate above the 64th figure against the reducing cross-rate EUR/GBP, but the US positive macroeconomic data about the housing market do not give the bulls hope for success. The decline in the oil quotations only fueled the dollar demand and against this negative background the pound made a sharp drop back down.

The USD/JPY was under pressure amid the Tokyo Stock Exchange low quotes in the early hours of the Asian trading session. However, the European traders’ arrival supported the dollar demand after the United States new home sales strong report publication, the dollar sharply raised up. It should be noted that the bullish sentiment was observed not only towards the American dollar, but also in the stock markets.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The European Central Bank president Mario Draghi promised to keep the soft policy until the Central Bank would not be able to raise the inflation to a certain optimal level by about 2 %.

The US and Europe macroeconomic statistics demonstrate the difference in the regional growth prospects.

The rebound from the downtrend line 1.2930 was followed by the euro active decrease against the American dollar. The breakthrough occurred at the level of 1.2790 on the low volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2850.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The trend is directed down side. We expect the level of 1.2670 testing soon.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British Pound remains under pressure, despite the attempts to recover. Meanwhile, the increase above 1.6440 can not be excluded against the empty calendar of British events. Therefore, the investors pay their attention to the American statistics which forms the course dynamics.

The rates consolidation formed below the trend line at 1.6340 led to the downward price rebound. In the short term we expect the level of 1.6270 breakthrough, the lower boundary of the upward channel.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6180. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6440.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.6270 line break that will open the way to 1.6180.

 

[Valdis]

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen attempts to recover its losses. The US dollar rose slightly against the yen after Mr. Abe, the Japanese Prime Minister, aggressively commented the weaker yen negative impact to the regional economy. The US home sales recent disappointing data in the secondary market contributed to the recent correction.

The buyers tested for strength the strong resistance level of 109.00. From this level it formed a downward correction. The corrective price decline was stopped by the rising trend line at 108.50.

The price is finding the first support at 108.50, the next one is at 108.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.40.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 109.40, 110.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc fell against the dollar. The dollar had a surprisingly strong data about the state of the US housing market. In result the Fed raising interest rates will be likely increased in the nearest future.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price above in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the target - 0.9500. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9560.

 

[Valdis]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar continued to strengthen against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at around 85.20. The EUR/USD set a new local minimum for the last 22 months - traders continue to sell off the euro against the ECB "cheap money" policy. The 10-year German state bonds profit abilities differential dropped back below 1% which confirms the deflationary sentiment presence in the Old World.

The pound fell at the end of the last week. It is important to note that before this the GBP/USD has consolidated near the 63rd figure. Mark Carney’s comments were able to support the moderate pound demand– the Bank of England president stated that the time for the rate increase was getting closer and was delayed for a long time after the first increase that was critical to the UK real estate market.

The USD/JPY has continued to develop a bullish trend despite the US negative macroeconomic data. The August orders for consumer durables decreased by 18.2%, indicating to a quite restrained private consumption in the third quarter. It should be noted that the US macroeconomic releases showed a mixed trend the last week and now we cannot speak about the strong economic growth, similar to that we saw in the second quarter this year.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The EUR/USD remains under the sellers’ pressure. Many investors have already achieved their goals, so the consolidation is possible from these levels. A further decrease is also possible, but it requires a strong driver. While the European Central Bank (ECB) does not apply more drastic measures, further reduction is delayed.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2600. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2790.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 1.2670, the next one is 1.2600.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The GBP/USD fell at the end of the last week. Before this the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney made it clear that there was a high likelihood for raising interest rates in the foreseeable future that deterred from the further pound/dollar decrease and contributed to the pair recovery to 1.6340. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the prospects of interest rates rise will not have a supportive effect on the former British currency that should alert the bulls for it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6340.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The price is directed down. We advise to long positions with the first target – 1.6100, the next one is 1.6030.

 

[Valdis]

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The current exchange rate US Dollar rose to Japanese yen after the Japan Minister of Welfare speech, the government does not abandon the pension fund reform plans.

The yen strengthened after the latest statement by the Japan Minister of Health regarding the lack of haste in the pension fund reforms, which could lead to the number of assets increase which would be possible to invest.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.40, the next one is at 110.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the target – 110.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

After insignificant correction the franc continues to consolidate after the achieved fresh lows against the US dollar.

The dollar reached a four-year high after Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp. announced further US dollar rise due to the possible Fed interest rates growth in the middle of the next year against the monetary policy preservation by major central banks.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9430. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9560.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price above in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is rising.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the target - 0.9560.

 

[Valdis]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The main dollar competitors once again came under attack - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at around 85.63. The euro is consolidating. Before this the EUR/USD fell against the euro zone negative macroeconomic data and the US positive release in terms of the GDP growth. The Germany consumer confidence index showed the minimum value over the past 7 months in September, which is a negative factor for the inflation. The final data about the US economic growth for the 2nd quarter were revised upwards to the level of 4.6%, the last time we saw such a strong growth in the fourth quarter of 2011.

The GBP/USD consolidated most of the day near the 63 figure, but in the midst of the American trading session also came under a sales wave against the dollar upward trend line. The Great Britain did not please the traders with the interesting reports this day and all market participants' attention was focused on the United States data. There was published moderately positive GDP figures.

The CPI showed a 0.1% decrease the last month in Japan that cheered the bulls to open the long positions in the USD/JPY. The corporate bonds demand had the same positive impact on the bullish sentiment for the USD/JPY in Tokyo stock exchange.

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro weakened by 0.1 % to 1.2670, before falling to nearly two-year low. The ECB meeting will take place on Thursday, after which we do not expect important news. The United States will publish an labor report on Friday, as it is expected, it will give the Fed an opportunity for the early interest rates hike.

The euro/dollar is traded in the descending channel direction where the price has been trading for the second month in a row. The support level of 1.2730 was broken down. There are no trade obstacles for bears.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2600. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2790.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a directed downwards. We expect the level of 1.2600 testing soon.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound remained under pressure. The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said that the time for the interest rates rise was getting closer and also noted that the date had not yet specified as it depended on the economic data.

There was the support level of 1.6270 breakthrough that confirms the downward trend which will now play the resistance role. Besides the breakthrough, the bears returned the price to the downward trend line, thus opening the way to the current month lows - the levels of 1.6100, 1.6030.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6340.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.6440.

 

[Valdis]

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen is again in decline amid the speculations that the Japanese government will continue to take up the measures along with the reforms to the Japan pension fund, whose total assets are $1.2 trillion.

The increase volumes remain in the growth area. Consequently, the buyers remain dominant players in this trading instrument. Additionally, the trade is in the upward direction.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.40, the next one is at 110.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 110.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc continued to fall after the euro. The dollar rose after the US statistics showed that the GDP increased by 4.6% in the second quarter which met forecasts and is higher than the preliminary estimates of 4.2%. The indicator is following the GDP decline by 2.1% in the previous quarter and shows the best result since mid-2009.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9430. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9560.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the target - 0.9560.

 

[Valdis]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

The first part of the week has passed quietly enough for the single European currency that has been decreasing. Spain and Germany have published the September inflation preliminary data. Both figures were better than the forecasted medians, but still there was no CPI increase. The euro exchange rate at the moment reached 1.2715, but the bulls did not find strength for something else. The US private expenses consumption release can be slightly better than the traders expect, which will support the demand for the dollar. The PCE index showed an increase by 0.1% in August which is a positive factor for the economic growth.

The GBP/USD has showed a moderate increase by 0.15%. Nevertheless the pair fell down. There were no fundamental prerequisites for the British currency consolidation - M4 monetary aggregate still points out to the inflationary pressure fall which is a negative factor for the monetary policy tightening. The traders took profits on short positions, as a result we observed the moderate pound growth before the pair decreased.

The sales at the biggest world stock exchange market have frozen the USD/JPY bulls’ enthusiasm. However, we have not observed the American currency strong sales that confirms a stable upward trend. The market participants remain positive about the dollar/yen and increase the "longs" on corrective dips. The US real personal consumption expenditure allowed the USD/JPY to close the trading day in the "green zone".

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro/dollar remains under pressure against the dollar position. The US consumption expenditure rose in August, supporting the optimistic forecasts for the American economy. The American two-year bond yield approached the maximum level by 0.6 % from May 2011.

The price consolidated below the resistance level of 1.2730 and then it fell down to the support level of 1.2600.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.2500. We do not exclude the growth to 1.2730.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound partly compensated its losses incurred earlier against the dollar after the UK positive economic data publication. The August consumer lending amounted to £0.898 billion that exceeded the forecasts, but turned out to be worse than the July values total 1.108 billion.

The British pound is correcting upward at the low volumes. The price movement priority direction is a downtrend.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6340.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.6270 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.6180 will be opened.

 

[Valdis]

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The USD/JPY reached six-year maximum and continued its growth. One can hardly expect a significant dollar weakening in anticipation of the United States Friday employment report, the Wednesday Tankan report by the Bank of Japan and a decision on the EU interest rates that will be taken on Thursday.

Previously, the buyers could break above the resistance level of 109.40, which acts as a support. The growth is not supported by the trade volume.

The price is finding the first support at 109.40, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the resistance at 110.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 110.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

After a minor consolidation the dollar /frank sharply rose. The head of the Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan said that the central bank would continue to defend the level of 1.20 francs per euro. Also, the bank would be ready to take immediate actions and to use the additional measures if it was necessary.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the target - 0.9560.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.10.2014

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar ended the trading day with a steady growth against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the day at 85.95. The EUR/USD was under attack after the euro area inflation release was published. According to the preliminary data, CPI decreased by 0.3% at an annual rate which again points out to the economic deflation. Against this negative background we observed the euro sales, and at the moment the price reached the level of 1.2600 and then traders started partly to take profits closing their "shorts". As the result we saw a technical rebound that was followed by the consolidation.

The GBP/USD will be under pressure during the day amid the UK weak macroeconomic statistics. The negative payments balance has increased sharply in the second quarter confirming the existing problems in the UK economy. Against this background, the bears were able to push the price to 1.6180, but when American market participants appeared we observed a moderate demand for the pound against the US negative consumer confidence macroeconomic statistics. In September the Conference Board index showed a decline to the level of 86 p. It is worth noting that this figure is still above the 12-month average which is positive for the US dollar bulls.

Despite the American and the Japanese stock market correction the USD/JPY is still in demand among traders. It is worth noting that we had strong sales of "black gold" and this factor has traditionally been a positive for the dollar. The Japan macroeconomic statistics continues to disappoint investors. The August industrial production fell by 1.5%, which confirms the export problems. Household expenditures show a significant reduction five months in a row which also negatively affects the economy. In this regard, the traders have no choice if only to buy the US dollar.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.10.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro fell by 0.11 %, losing 3.82 % in September, which has been the worst result for more than two years. Euro Area annual inflation rate fell to 0.3 percent in September from 0.4 percent in August.

The downward trend, supported by trade volumes, is still relevant.

There was a price fall at 1.2660 followed by a consolidation amid the EUR fundamental data (German Unemployment Change).


The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.2500.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound continued its downward movement. The reason was the fundamental data high volatility (quarterly GDP and annual GDP). The statistics showed the payments balance reducing deficit in the third quarter.

There was a price fall against the increased volume and the pair reached the support level of 1.6180. Here we can see the price consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6340.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level of 1.6180. The way to the mark 1.6100 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen continues to lose ground against the dollar. However there was a price falling at the end of the trading day.

The Bank of Japan will have a meeting the next week and it buys bonds in the amount from $60 trillion ($ 548 billion) to 70 trillion in order to fight the deflation. The Central Bank is trying in such a way to increase the inflation rate up to the annual 2%.

At the moment, the buyers were able to consolidate above intermediate resistance level of 109.70.

The price is finding the first support at 109.40, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the resistance at 110.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 110.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc did not compensate the losses deducted before. The US dollar rose amid the expectations to raise the Fed interest rates.

The market participants predict a further dollar rise, if the US economic statistics points out to the possibility of an early interest rates rise by the US Federal Reserve.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the target - 0.9620.