Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.11.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro continued to strengthen its position. The better ZEW report for November in comparison with the forecasts supported the euro. The Germany and the EU data unexpectedly exceeded forecasts, showing the economic sentiment growth up to 11.5 pp and 11.0 pp respectively.

The trading volumes continue to decline downwards both with the corrective growth and with the trade price within the trend. The bearish trend potential is still in force.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the support levels of 1.2400, 1.2300.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Bank of England's last meeting monetary policy minutes will not cause a strong reaction on the traders’ part this time. We received a quarterly inflation report the last week where the monetary authorities indicated all the key guidelines. In this regard, the traders will focus their attention on the Fed “minutes” publication.

There was formed the quite strong divergence within the pound on the trading volumes. The downward trend is not supported by sellers and is gradually losing steam. The pair slightly corrected.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.5660, 1.5550 soon.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen suffered losses against the euro and the dollar after the Japan Prime Minister Abe announced the early parliamentary elections and postponed the planned sales tax increase.

This fact proves that the government is aware that the third world economy is not in the great shape and intends to take the additional stimulating measures.

The dollar continues to strengthen against the Japanese yen. The upward trend is on the declining volumes. Technically the yen demand is gradually weakening.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 118.00 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 119.20.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc rose against the dollar after the US statistics publication. The data showed that the US producer price index rose 0.2% in October while analysts expected a decline by 0.1%. The figure rose by 1.5% in annual terms that is higher the forecast by 1.3%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9680.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9500. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9430.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

25.11.2014

Fundamental analysis

The dollar weakening was noted in the major currency pairs yesterday. If looking beyond the events within the pairs EUR/USD and USD/CHF, nothing remarkable happened at the last trades. The dollar strengthened against the pound and fell against the yen, but there were consolidation movements on these instruments and they were within the previously formed correction ranges.

In the dollar and the euro dispute there was a sharp dollar strengthening that led not only to the dollar increase by the end of the last week, during which the dollar was losing against the European currency most of the time. These euro large-scale sales for the dollar can be attributed to the ECB President M. Draghi’s speech who had promised to continue quantitative easing on Friday in his report at the European Banking Congress in Frankfurt. The ECB president statements gave more certainty that the European regulator would begin to include in their purchases the Central Bank and the Eurozone sovereign debt.

There were published little the US economic statistical data, the most interesting is the Fed Kansas City report that showed the manufacturing sector activity increase in November that was higher than expected - the index grew to the level of 7 from 4 in October, though we expected to see improvements only to 6. The week news does not plan to present the important data and those that are preparing to leave for the most part are expected to be with the positive dynamics.

It is unlikely that the attitude towards the US dollar has changed, if there are no surprising deviations from forecasts to the negative side for the dollar.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

25.11.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro was able to slightly recover on the yesterday's trading. The euro fell sharply against the dollar, having lost all the gains of the previous day sessions and closed the last week with a substantial decrease. The reason of such a sharp changes in the investors’ sentiment against the euro was the Draghi’s statement about the European regulator’s intentions to continue quantitative easing and its readiness to expand aggressively these programs.

There was a rapid euro decline against the US dollar on the Friday's trading session. The price fell to the current month minimum- the support level of 1.2385. The euro has grown to a value of 1.2437 at this week beginning.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can break the support level of 1.2400. After breaking 1.2400 the pair may go to 1.2300.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound also increased against the dollar, but the "cable" buyings were moderate and were within the price range where there the lateral correction was formed. There were no reasons for disappointment within the pound and the UK finance data could disappoint investors.

The trend remains bearish in the medium term. The price is trading within the side channel of 1.5730 - 1.5600.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5870 may lead to the price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.5550.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar tries to continue the growth. The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen on Friday. The Japan Finance Minister T. Aso expressed his concern about the rapid Japanese yen decline that set the trading tone.

The correctional price fell from the resistance level of 118.00 to the lower bound uplink of 117.50. There the short-term consolidation near the mark was formed, indicating the bullish trend continuation. As a result the pair broke the level of 118.00 upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the resistance at 119.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

When the price consolidates above the level of 118.00 it may go to the level of 119.20.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss currency managed to win some of the losses.The franc has lost some ground the last week.

The data publication showed that the US consumer price inflation did not change during October, but increased by 1.7% in annual terms. The benchmark that excludes the volatile prices for such categories as food and energy, have risen by 1.8% y/y.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9720.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9680. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9750.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.11.2014

Fundamental analysis

The dollar grew against the European competitors and has consolidated against the yen. Earlier we observed the situation where the risk tendency had increased. The news was weak in the amount of data that could affect the market, but it gave some impulse to the pair. The European indicators good business sentiment and less positive US economic statistics added some pressure on the US dollar. However, the dollar loss was within the correction range and did not testify any fundamental changes in the investors’ sentiment.

The news will publish more important information and forecasts about the expected indicators promise to be in the dollar favor. The GDP assessment for the third quarter showed the result + 3.9% q/q, the consumer confidence index by the Conference board in November fell to 88.7 in November. However, the production index in the Richmond Fed influence zone was forecasted to decrease in November, and fell to 4 from 20 and the September house price index from the S & P / Case-Shiller for 20 megacities is increased to + 4.9% y/y.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.11.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We received two releases from the US: the second third quarter GDP assessment and the Conference Board consumer confidence data. As for the first release - the consensus forecast by the leading banks economists from the Wall Street suggests decline by 0.2%, but the positive macroeconomic reports indicate the data output slightly better than the traders’ expectations.

The price reached the level of 1.2400 amid the reduced volume and formed a consolidation there. The price rebounded upwards from this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 1.2400, 1.2300.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The inflation parliamentary hearings were held in the United Kingdom. The CPI figures showed its growth to 1.3% in October, but the inflation expectations remain subdued amid the lower energy prices. The unemployment rate reduction with the moderate average salary increase will reinforce the inflationary growth in the commodity market correction period.

The sellers have been reducing the price towards the downward channel the fifth week in a row. Every time when the price is corrected to the channel upper bound there is formed the price rebound downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The upward trend line of 1.5870 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support level of 1.5550 decrease.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda has given his speech. Mr. Kuroda’s speech was traditionally characterized by his optimism about the economic growth perspectives in regard with the yen devaluation and the sales tax increase delay. The dollar index basket is aimed to increase near 88.70. The US and Japan stock markets positive dynamics also points out to the bullish sentiment within the pair USD/JPY.

The short-term price decline was at the lower volumes and fell to 118.00. We expect the consolidation near this mark.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 119.20.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc continues to win back its positions against the dollar and is waiting for the new reference points.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9720.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9680. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9750.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.11.2014

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was under pressure - the dollar index basket (DXY) finished the trading day around 87.90. The EUR/USD was able to finish the trading day in a positive territory despite the mixed news. Earlier the second US GDP assessment for the third quarter pleased traders by the positive data –the indicator was revised upwards by 3.9%. The United States show strong growth for the last two quarters that is seen in the dollar strengthening.

The parliamentary inflation hearings did not cause any significant fluctuations within the pair GBP/USD. Mark Carney denied deflationary fears and also pointed out that the cumulative monetary policy tightening would likely be less significant than it was expected earlier.

The Bank of Japan governor’ speech was held on Tuesday and allowed the Japanese yen with the US dollar to compensate some lost ground. Haruhiko Kuroda said that the monetary authorities would closely monitor the yen devaluation as this process begins to exert pressure on households. It was also noted that rising inflation expectations affect the salary and pricing strategy. The pair grew after the US GDP the third quarter assessment release.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.11.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Eurozone again will not please the traders with any interesting macroeconomic releases. The foreign exchange traders will focus their attention on the US reports. According to the leading indicators the US consumers’ activity is increasing and therefore we can expect moderately positive durable goods sales data.

The support level of 1.2400 short-term testing has led to the correction to the level of 1.2500. The trades closed above this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2670.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.2500 may lead to the price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the level of support 1.2400.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

We do not expect the indicator revision upwards from the adjusted UK GDP release for the 3rd quarter. The release can be at the level of the forecasted medians. The moderately positive durable goods orders release can support the US dollar demand, but we cannot count on the strong dollar growth as traders ignored the positive US GDP release.

The British pound has been consolidating at the support level of 1.5660 practically for two weeks. The pound sharply increased yesterday.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price falls it will get to 1.5660.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Taking into consideration the US moderately positive macroeconomic statistics we can expect the dollar growth, but in connection with the Thanksgiving Day celebration and on this background the stock market participants took profits on the long positions yesterday.

The price is consolidating above the strong support level of 118.00 amid the low volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates above the resistance level of 118.00, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential target is 119.20.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc showed a growth continuation. The dollar was unable to maintain its achievements, despite the positive statistics release, including the GDP data and the house price index.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9680.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9680. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9750.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.11.2014

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar is under pressure the whole week. The pair EUR/USD was able to consolidate above the level of 1.2400 amid the German and the US Treasuries bond spreads reduction. The US macroeconomic statistics was generally positive – the durable goods orders increased by 0.4% in October. We should also note the personal consumption expenditures index growth to the level of year on year 1.6%. The Fed focuses namely on this indicator, determining the consumer activity. The new buildings rate sales in October stopped short before the predicted value. Despite the positive background - the euro again showed weakness.

Institutional investors continue to take profits on the short positions within the pair GBP/USD. Despite the UK moderate negative statistics – the pound tested the 58th figure during the day. The retail sales release according to the industrials confederation data (CBI) for November came out worse than the forecasted medians. We should also note a sharp investment decline for the third quarter. As we noted above, to the contrary, the US statistics showed a positive trend. At the moment of quotation the pair pound/dollar fell to the mark of 1.5736.

The pair USD/JPY was under pressure most of the day – traders, concerned about the Bank of Japan governor’s statement that the monetary authorities are worried about the strong yen devaluation, getting rid of the long positions. The price reached the level of 117.45, but then after the US positive macroeconomic statistics bulls were able to recover some lost ground.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.11.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

All traders’ attention will be focused on the Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting in Vienna. We again will see the Brent and WTI quotations decrease that will put some support to the US dollar.

The downtrend trend line short term test at the level of 1.2500 was followed by the consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.2500 may lead to the price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support level of 1.2400 and 1.2300.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK 10-year bond yields fell below 2% yesterday that is a bearish signal for the pound. The UK investments volume for the third quarter decreased by 0.7%, indicating the business representatives negative expectations.

There was the downward trend line breakthrough of 1.5660 within the pound. Besides the buyers also managed to consolidate above this level. The bearish trend reversal was amid the low volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5870 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.5950 and 1.6030.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

We should expect the lateral trend development throughout the day amid the absence of important macroeconomic statistics publication and the weekend in the United States. The OPEC summit results certainly will have an impact on the balance of power in the Forex foreign exchange market, but we should expect the lowest volatility within the pair dollar/yen.

The US dollar continued to correct downwards relatively to the Japanese yen. The price corrective decline volumes are in the reduced zone, indicating the sellers’ reducing power.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 117.00, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 115.80 and 114.60.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc has consolidated against the dollar the second day in a row after the US data release that fixed the jobless claims growth and the orders decrease, resulting in the intensified speculations about the world's largest economy growth prospects.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price above in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9680. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9750.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.12.2014

Fundamental analysis

The OPEC summit was held- the oil production level remains the same despite the strong differences within the cartel. Against this background we saw a powerful "bearish rally" within the black gold - the WTI oil has fallen below $ 70 / barrel the first time for the last four years. The pair EUR/USD was under pressure after the last week three-day growth – the Spain and Germany inflation preliminary data did not please the traders with their positive releases. The ECB President Mario Draghi underlined that the monetary authorities are ready to increase incentives if necessary and asked his colleagues to carry out additional analysis. The oil quotations decrease with the negative internal background put some pressure on the euro.

The oil cartel decision sent the Brent quotes to the bottom that increased demand for the UK government bonds. The Gilts 10-year bond yields were at the level of 1.92% last Thursday that is the lowest level for the last 18 months. The UK inflation expectations are declining that puts pressure on the pound. Against this negative background, most of the Friday trades we observed the British pound sales and the trading day finished with decrease within the pair GBP/USD.

The traders continued to get rid of the US dollar within the pair USD/JPY as they were afraid of the Bank of Japan's comments about the negative yen devaluation impact on the household spending. The commodity goods sales lead to the dollar demand. The pair closed the last week with an increase.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.12.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Germany and Spain CPI preliminary releases showed the consumer prices decrease in annual terms, indicating that the data was at the level of the forecasted medians. In recent months we have seen the monetary aggregate M3 increase money amid the ECB accommodating monetary policy, but it will be not enough to increase inflationary pressure in the current circumstances. The oil market sales also will strengthen the demand for the US dollar.

The four day euro corrective growth against the US dollar was stopped by the downward trend line of 1.2500. The trend line testing was followed by the consolidation with the further prices rebound downwards.

The price rebounded from the trend line to the level of 1.2450 at the low volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the support level of 1.2400. After breaking 1.2400 the pair may go to 1.2300.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound was unable to consolidate its success after the resistance level of 1.5660 breakthrough. The price returned back and it has broken through this level downwards amid the low volumes.

The key support for buyers is the uptrend lower bound of 1.5660. Based on the fact on which volatility the sellers drive the price downwards, the price consolidation will be formed near the channel lower bound in the short term.

The price is finding the support at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5870.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5660 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5870 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan will publish a set of the important macroeconomic statistics where the October CPI data stand apart. On the one hand, we observed the yen devaluation and the money supply increase in October that is a positive factor for the inflation. On the other hand, the energy prices decline with the low household level will put pressure on the consumer price index.

The second consecutive week the price has been consolidating within the side corridor levels of 118.60 - 117.60. There was a short-term lower bound of 117.60 breakthrough, but the price returned back above the level, forming a high volume.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the resistance at 119.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the third resistance level of 118.60 testing in the short term. If the price rises at the low volumes and at the relatively low volatility, the price rebound will be possible downwards.

The downward bounce potential target is 117.00. It can be followed by a price consolidation.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc continues to consolidate against the dollar in anticipation of the new movement catalysts.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price above in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9560. When the price consolidates under the first target it may go to the level of 0.9500.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.12.2014

Fundamental analysis

The euro fell against the USD. Earlier the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 87.97. The pair EUR/USD showed the moderate upward trend during the day amid the US positive ISM production index release. The manufacturing sector business activity was better in November than the traders had expected despite the decline compared with the previous month. During the day traders fixed the profits on the short.

The sterling decreased against the dollar on the yesterday trades. The positive UK manufacturing sector PMI indices release let "bears" to close short positions. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index has been growing for two months in a row, but it is early to speak about the negative trend change - the annual trend is still downward. Traders are tired of pound sales and they decided to close the "shorts" on Monday amid the UK and the US negative yield spreads expansion.

The yen continues to decrease against the dollar. Earlier the pair USD/JPY showed the quotations moderate decrease after the new seven year high set. The positive UK manufacturing sector PMI indices release for November allowed the bulls to recover some lost ground. The US is still encouraging traders with the positive macroeconomic statistics and in these terms does not allow the Japanese yen to strengthen its position.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.12.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

In the absence of any important macroeconomic statistics traders will focus their attention on the bond market dynamics and the "black gold" market. The German and the US Treasuries bond yields showed the moderate reduction on the first day of December.

The pair has been near the downward trend line of 1.2500 for the second day in a row. The continued consolidation is followed by a slight rebound that is not supported by the volumes. The pair decreased on the yesterday trades and broke the support level of 1.2400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2300, the next one is at 1.2200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2500.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The trend line of 1.2400 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support level 1.2300 decrease.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

We received the UK and the US manufacturing sector business optimism release for November. Both reports came out better than the forecasted medians, but if we analyze the average annual dynamics, the US has a clear advantage for the last five months. The UK inflation expectations are still restrained - the 10-year bond yields are at the level of 1.91%.

The trade was within the consolidation at the daily support level of 1.5660 for the larger part of November. There was a false level testing with the following rebound upwards.

The price is finding the support at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5870.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5660, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5550.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese importers will continue to defend the 119th figure. On the other hand, the moderate demand on the Japanese and the US stock markets will not allow the pair USD/JPY to fell below the 118th figure.

At the high volume sellers broke through the support level of 118.60 and returned the price back to the upper channel lower bound of 118.10. Near this mark a short-term consolidation was formed.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the resistance at 119.20.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 119.20 for a steady growth.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar index rebounded from the five year high amid the overvalued US dollar speculation. However, the dollar resumed its growth now.

Over the past three months the dollar rose by 6.8% that was the highest result among the ten major currencies of the economically developed countries.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9620. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9750.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.12.2014

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar has strengthened its position against the euro and the yen - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 88.63 near the four year high. The bears used the pair EUR/USD quotations growth to open short positions at the beginning of the week. Yesterday we again observed the German and the US bond spreads expansion. The FOMC representative Fisher pointed out that the monetary authorities are ready to reject the phrase "for considerable time" concerning the monetary policy. It should be noted that Fisher is traditionally the earlier federal funds rate increase supporter and it is not a surprise for the market.

The pound recovered some losses. Earlier the UK construction sector PMI index release has shown the lowest value for the last twelve months that with Gilts and Treasury 10-year bond yields increase sent the pair GBP/USD to knockout. The traders systematically sold the pound and against this negative background the quotations decreased. This decrease was followed by the pound growth.

The Japanese stock market came out the two-week consolidation. The Japan salaries report came below the traders’ expectations. With the US trading session opening we observed demand for corporate bonds that also supported the US dollar. Against this positive background bulls were able to break through the 119th figure.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.12.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The ADP and ISM employment releases will lay the foundation for the Friday Non-Farm report. The leading investment bank economists from the Wall Street expect the both indicators decrease in comparison with the previous month, but now traders do not intend to buy actively the euro.

The pair broke through the support level of 1.2400 and fell to the new minimum at the level of 1.2300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2300, the next one is at 1.2200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2500.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pai need to break below 1.2300 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.2200 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Pound

General overview

Markit Economics the center of macroeconomic research will publish the UK final release - this time we will receive the services sector business activity data. The UK average salary increase points out to the increased consumer activity, but the GfK consumer confidence indicator does not confirm such a positive picture.

The level of 1.5660 is a strong support that was rebounding sellers upwards the whole last month. The pair is trading above this level now.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.5660 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.5550 will be opened.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

We observed a steady demand on the Japanese stock market that encouraged bulls to break through the 119th figure. We can expect the data release at the level of forecasted medians from the US macroeconomic releases with small deviations that can cool down the bulls. We observe the Japan and the US bond yields expansion on the bond market that also points out to the upward trend development.

The trade is without change within this trading instrument. The buyers have been rising for the third week the price towards the upward channel and at the lower volumes that can be clearly seen on the daily chart.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the resistance at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates above the level of 119.20, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential target is 120.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar index hit to the five-year high, on the eve of the important economic releases publication that could lead to an increase in speculation about monetary tightening in the United States. Against this background, the franc recorded a significant decline.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9680. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9800.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9800.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.12.2014

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was under pressure amid the partial profit taking on long positions - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 89.14. From all the published macroeconomic releases we should pay attention to the Germany industrial production report that showed an increase by 0.2% in October. The German and the US Treasuries bond yields have once again expanded, indicating the bearish sentiment presence within the major currency pairs.

The pair GBP/USD repeated the pair EUR/USD fate we observed profit-taking on short positions. The pound strengthened namely on technical factors – there was no fundamental prerequisites for the quotations growth. On the contrary, the negative UK and the US 10-year bond yields expansion points out to the bearish trend continuation. However, we should always understand that before the trend continuation often is a technical correction when institutional investors fix the partial profit taking and then again increase their portfolios at the attractive levels.

The final Japan GDP data for the 3rd quarter were revised into the negative region to the level of -0.5% that confirms the presence of severe structural problems in the Japan economy. Within the pair USD/JPY we observed the "longs" closure and the quotations reduction. The US and Japan stock markets showed the same weakness that also put pressure on the US dollar. The pair dollar/yen has significantly strengthened for the recent weeks and the technical correction is already overdue.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.12.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The traders’ attention will be focused on the bond market dynamics. Yesterday the Brent oil set a new five-year low that again increases the downside risks for the euro area inflation. Against this background we have observed the US and Germany bond yields expansion that is a negative factor for the single European currency.

From the technical point of view the bearish trend is still relevant. The upward correction was formed in the short term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2300, the next one is at 1.2200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2500.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.2400 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.2500.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound showed strength amid the partial profit taking on short positions. The UK inflation expectations reduction with sales on the commodity market will form a stable downward trend.

The strong level of 1.5660 did not have time to be a strong level after last Friday it was broken through downwards. In the light of the lower volumes there was a reversal breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5760, the next one is at 1.5870.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.5760.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

We can expect the moderate quotations decline towards 120.50 / 120.20 amid the technical correction on the Japanese stock market. Near 17 564 the Nikkei 225 stock index can find a demand that also will support the US dollar. The positive correlation between the two instruments is still strong enough due to the ultra-loose monetary policy pursued by the Bank of Japan.

There was the price rebound downwards from the rising channel upper bound of 121.80. Amid the low volume sellers have been reducing the price for the second day in a row.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 118.00 soon.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair is under pressure amid the US Treasury bond yields decrease. The pair potential reduction is limited by the franc sales in the decreasing franc/yen, the Switzerland unexpected consumer price index decrease by 0.1% in November against the forecast of 0.0% and the extremely loose monetary policy by the Swiss National Bank.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9620. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9800.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is correcting now. We expect the new growth. We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.12.2014

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the US dollar fell. Earlier it managed to recover some lost ground against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 88.50. The pair EUR/USD remained under pressure during the day amid the commodity markets sales.

The Brent oil is very close to the psychological level of $60/barrel that supported the US dollar during the day. The US industrial production release for November pleased traders by its positive data that also supported demand for the dollar. Then the USD decreased.

Bears were able to fully play the downward trend within the pair GBP/USD. The UK and the US negative bond yields encouraged traders for the opening short positions within the British pound that was fundamentally revalued in the short term.

Both the manufacturing sector and the Tankan service sector activity indices supported the demand for the Japanese yen. The strong data allow us to count on the Japan economic growth recovery. Sales on the global stock markets have also put pressure on the pair USD/JPY.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.12.2014

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We wait for the Germany and France production sector PMI from Markit Economics as well as from the ZEW institute. It should be noted that these indicators are quite difficult to predict as they relate to the number of leading ones.

The pair has been near the downward channel upper bound for a long while. We see consolidation fallowed by the price increase.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential target are 1.2400, 1.2300, 1.2200.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK National statistics office will publish the consumer price index release for November. The UK government bonds dynamics is decreasing, signaling about the inflationary pressure decline. In the light of this we expect the data output at the level of year on year 1.2%.

There was a rebound from the resistance level of 1.5760. The rebound was followed on the increased volumes, but was met with a round mark of 1.5600 where now we see a correction upwards. Then it was the price downward movement.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5760, the next one is at 1.5870.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a down side. We expect the level of 1.5660 testing soon.

Yen (CHF)

General overview

Yesterday the US and the Japan bond yields grew on the bond market which is a bullish signal. The US macroeconomic statistics pleased traders with the positive data about the number of foundation installations amid the increasing consumer confidence in recent months that will also support demand for the US dollar.

There was a rebound from the resistance level of 119.20 on the increasing prices. The nearest rebound target is at the mark of 117.00 that has been already tested. The support level of 115.80 testing was followed by the price return above the level of 117.00.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go downward to the levels of 115.80, 114.60.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc consolidates against the dollar.

Investors escape from the risky assets and prefer not to risk amid the oil prices decline that create instability on the markets and force players to worry about the global economic health.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9680.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9560. When the pair consolidates under the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9500.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.12.2014

Fundamental analysis

Every day the US dollar is thrown from one side to another - yesterday we saw the dollar increase against the majors. Earlier the dollar index basket decrease (USDX) to the level of 87.63. The pair EUR/USD strengthened in the first half of the day amid the Germany positive macroeconomic statistics. Two indices – the PMI manufacturing and the ZEW business optimism indicator pleased traders with the strong data. It is worth noting the final index of the second macroeconomic release overcame an annual average that points out to the negative trend breakthrough. The euro devaluation as well as the lower degree of geopolitical tension was positive for the Germany business climate the last month of the year.

The pair GBP/USD was in demand despite the UK CPI negative report for November. The UK inflation reduced to the level of 1% in annual terms that caused the 10-year government bond yields decrease to the level of 1.77% and increased the negative spread with US securities. Nevertheless, traders opened "longs" within the British pound. In anticipation of the FOMC press conference the dollar weakened that can signal about the large buying orders at the low levels. The sterling decreased at the end of the trades.

The USD/JPY remained under pressure in the first half of the day amid the global equity markets sales and the US and the Japan yield spreads reduction. However, we observed the bulls’ return to the stock market at the US session that immediately reflected on the dollar/yen quotes. However, now it is too early to speak about the full technical correction completion – the Nasdaq stock index lagged behind their counterparts, pointing out to the low demand for the risky assets.