Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

AUDUSD rises slightly, but pressure persists

The AUDUSD pair remains in a downward trend, pausing for corrections. Risk appetite is weak. Discover more in our analysis for 24 October 2024.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• The AUDUSD pair declines
• The RBA is expected to keep the interest rate unchanged this year
• AUDUSD forecast for 24 October 2024: 0.6696

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate fell to 0.6647.

The Australian dollar reached a two-month low, as the strong US dollar and rising yields on US government bonds left it little chance of recovery. The market expects the Federal Reserve to gradually reduce interest rates. Investors also anticipate Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election in November.

According to new statistical data, Australia’s private sector activity was more stable in October. Activity in the services sector continued to grow, while the manufacturing segment contracted at its sharpest pace since May 2020.

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser noted earlier this week that the central bank is ready to respond based on incoming data. He highlighted the country’s unexpectedly strong employment growth, which came as a surprise.

The baseline AUDUSD forecast appears mixed and suggests that the interest rate in Australia will remain unchanged this year.

Read this article on RoboForex website - AUDUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

NZDUSD under pressure: consumer confidence in New Zealand decreases

The NZDUSD rate is declining within a descending channel, attempting to secure a position below the support level. Find out more in our analysis for 25 October 2024.

NZDUSD forecast: key trading points

• RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr confirmed that the low inflation target is attainable, adding to arguments for an interest rate cut in November
• New Zealand’s Consumer Confidence Index fell from 95.1 in September to 91.2 in October
• NZDUSD forecast for 25 October 2024: 0.5984 and 0.6052

Fundamental analysis

The NZDUSD rate declined to 0.5987 on Friday, marking its fourth consecutive week of losses. The pressure on the New Zealand dollar is mounting amid rising expectations of a moderate Federal Reserve rate cut and uncertainty about the upcoming US presidential election.

Domestically, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr noted that attaining low and stable inflation has become a realistic target. This adds to arguments supporting another substantial RBNZ rate cut in November. The markets have already priced in a 50-basis-point cut and are also assessing the likelihood of a 75-basis-point reduction. As part of today’s NZDUSD forecast, these factors exert pressure on the currency pair.

The significant economic news from New Zealand includes a decrease in consumer confidence in October after three consecutive months of growth. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index fell to 91.2 points in October from 95.1 in September, indicating the end of the recovery period. Employment figures remain extremely weak, with 22% of respondents reporting a weaker financial position than last year and only 14% expecting improvements next year. This is significantly lower than the September indicator of 25%.

Read this article on RoboForex website - NZDUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD: Strong US economy and expectations of Trump’s victory exert pressure on the euro

The EURUSD rate slightly declines, remaining within the range. More details in our analysis for 29 October 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Positive US economic indicators continue to exert pressure on the euro
• The increasing likelihood of Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election supports the US dollar
• Traders are focused on the upcoming releases of crucial economic data, such as US GDP, CPI, and the employment report
• EURUSD forecast for 29 October 2024: 1.0780

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate continues to correct for the fifth consecutive trading session. Buyers have so far managed to maintain the 1.0775 level. In addition to positive economic data supporting the strength of the US economy, the US dollar is bolstered by rising expectations of Donald Trump’s victory in the upcoming US presidential election.

Traders now focus on preliminary US Q3 GDP data due on Wednesday and the core PCE price index for September, a crucial inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve, scheduled for release on Thursday. The US nonfarm payrolls report is due on Friday, potentially increasing market volatility.

Overall, the US dollar remains stable as signs of steady economic growth have reduced expectations of a sharp Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Market participants now believe that after starting the easing cycle with a sizeable 50-basis-point cut in September, the regulator will limit itself to a more moderate 25-basis-point move in November. The market estimates the likelihood of such a reduction at 95%, which, as part of today’s EURUSD forecast, continues to weigh on the euro.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) hit a new all-time high today, hovering above 2,780 USD

XAUUSD prices have completed a correction and are steadily rising, surpassing the previous all-time high of 2,758 USD. A triangle pattern has formed on the instrument chart. More details in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 30 October 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: market participants are awaiting the US labour market statistics this week, including the ADP report, nonfarm payrolls, and the unemployment rate
• Current trend: a strong uptrend is underway, with a triangle pattern formed on the chart
• XAUUSD forecast for 30 October 2024: 2,758 and 2,800

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes continue to trade in an uptrend, reaching another all-time high around 2,790 USD today. A downward correction is complete, and growth is likely to resume. The precious metal appears buoyant, supported by robust demand from central banks and investors.

The current Federal Reserve’s interest rate-cutting cycle, high geopolitical tensions, ongoing conflict escalation in the Middle East, and the upcoming US presidential election in November are all factors strengthening the prices of Gold.

US employment statistics from Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) are scheduled for release during today’s American session. If data exceeds the forecast (+115,000 jobs), the US dollar will receive support, and the XAUUSD pair may enter a local correction again. If data falls short of the forecast, this will drive further growth in the XAUUSD pair.

Read this article on RoboForex website - XAUUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY: BoJ left the interest rate at its highest level since 2008

The USDJPY rate has declined, securing below the 152.65 support level. Discover more in our analysis for 31 October 2024

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The Bank of Japan left the interest rate at 0.25%, the highest level since 2008
• The US economy grew at a 2.8% annual rate in Q3, slightly below the forecasted 3.0%, with personal consumption and sales figures remaining high
• Investors cautiously await Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls data
• USDJPY forecast for 31 October 2024: 152.40 and 150.80

Fundamental analysis

At its two-day meeting, which concluded on Thursday, the Bank of Japan kept the interest rate at 0.25%, the highest level since 2008. This result aligned with analysts’ expectations that monetary policy would remain unchanged, exerting pressure on the USDJPY rate. This year, the Bank of Japan raised the interest rate twice, in March and July.

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has already warned of increasing uncertainty in the global economy, noting that the regulator has time to thoroughly analyse risks without hastily tightening monetary policy. Traders are now scrutinising information from the BoJ chief’s post-meeting briefing, looking for hints about the timing and pace of further interest rate hikes.

According to the quarterly survey, the Bank of Japan maintains its inflation outlook and expects inflation to remain close to the 2.0% target level in the coming years. The projected core inflation rate, excluding food prices, remains at 2.5%.

Investors are now cautiously awaiting Friday’s nonfarm payroll data and next week’s US presidential election. Meanwhile, the ADP report recorded a surge in private-sector employment in October, indicating labour market resilience. The US economy grew at a 2.8% annual rate in Q3 2024, slightly falling short of the forecasted 3.0%. However, solid growth in personal consumption and high sales figures confirm consumer activity, which may support the US dollar as part of today’s USDJPY forecast.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team