Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

The AUDUSD pair appears weak, but there are signals for recovery

The AUDUSD pair declined to 0.6223, and recovering from the two-year low will not be easy. Find out more in our analysis for 20 December 2024.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• The AUDUSD pair remains at a two-year low
• The market is confident that the RBA is closer to an interest rate cut, which could happen as early as February 2025
• AUDUSD forecast for 20 December 2024: 0.6239 and 0.6288

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate fell to 0.6223 on Friday. The pair remains at a two-year low and appears relatively weak from a fundamental perspective.

The market believes the Reserve Bank of Australia will soon be ready for its first rate cut amid slowing economic activity. The rate could be lowered as early as February 2025, with the current level at 4.35% per annum. The minutes of the RBA’s previous meeting, due in December, may provide further insights into these plans.

Externally, the AUD remains under pressure from the strong US dollar. This driver became more influential after the Federal Reserve announced its cautious plans to lower the interest rate next year.

Read this article on RoboForex website - AUDUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY: uncertainty in the BoJ actions weakens the Japanese yen

The USDJPY rate reversed from the support level, with the current price at 156.55. Discover more in our analysis for 23 December 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The Japanese yen remains under pressure due to uncertainty regarding a Bank of Japan interest rate hike
• Americans’ income rose by 0.3% in November, with spending increasing by 0.4%
• The core US PCE Price Index increased by 2.8% year-on-year
• USDJPY forecast for 23 December 2024: 157.85 and 160.15

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate rises on Monday, holding above the key resistance level at 155.95. The Japanese yen remains under pressure amid persistent uncertainty regarding the timing of a potential BoJ interest rate hike.

Last week, the Bank of Japan kept the rate unchanged, citing the need to carefully analyse wage changes, global economic uncertainties, and the impact of the new US administration on the economy.

Meanwhile, Americans’ incomes increased by 0.3% from October, while spending rose by 0.4%. Analysts had forecasted higher figures of 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively.

The core PCE Price Index, closely monitored by the Federal Reserve to assess inflation risks, increased by 2.8% year-on-year, unchanged from the October reading. This is the most substantial growth since April; experts had expected it to accelerate to 2.9%. Today’s USDJPY forecast suggests that robust US inflation data will help strengthen the US dollar.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Brent attempts to regain ground after a decline

Following a decline, Brent crude oil is attempting a recovery, with a potential growth target of 73.00. Discover more in our analysis for 24 December 2024.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Brent crude oil futures show growth on the London Stock Exchange
• Market participants anticipate a pre-New Year rally
• Brent forecast for 24 December 2024: 73.00 and 72.30

Fundamental analysis

Brent crude oil continues to strengthen amid a reduction in global hydrocarbon reserves.

Brent prices are experiencing moderate growth on 24 December 2024, following slight declines in the previous days. This morning, February futures on London’s ICE Futures exchange increased by 0.35 USD (0.48%), reaching 72.98 USD per barrel.

Analysts attribute this growth to the recovery from the previous decline and market participants’ expectations ahead of the upcoming holidays, which could lead to lower trading volumes and increased volatility.

Nevertheless, the market remains concerned about an economic slowdown in China, one of the world’s largest oil consumers, and the strengthening of the US dollar. All these factors could exert pressure on prices in the near term.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Brent Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) holds steady above 2,600 USD

XAUUSD quotes are experiencing slight volatility this week, remaining firmly above the 2,600 USD support level. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 27 December 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: Gold is trading within a limited range due to the holiday week in Europe and the US
• Current trend: consolidating within a sideways range
• XAUUSD forecast for 27 December 2024: 2,640 and 2,600

Fundamental analysis

Gold is set to end this week with moderate gains, having returned to the area above 2,600 USD following a recent downward correction. The decline was driven by the strengthening of the US dollar amid expectations that the US Federal Reserve will pause its monetary policy easing cycle in early 2025.

Overall, XAUUSD maintains a confident position, rising about 30% this year. Gold continues to benefit from demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and monetary easing policies pursued by global central banks.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Increasing oil demand from China may boost Brent barrel prices

Brent oil is consolidating near the 76.00 USD support level. Discover more in our analysis for 9 January 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Brent prices plunged after a rapid rise
• The oil market expects demand from China to increase
• Brent forecast for 9 January 2025: 78.00 and 74.80

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices continue to correct amid last week’s decline in commercial supplies. According to data from 9 January 2025, oil prices stand at 76.00 USD per barrel. Various factors influence price behaviour, including changes in US oil inventories and demand from China

In particular, on 2 January 2025, it was reported that US oil stocks decreased, which pushed Brent prices above 77.50 USD. Fundamental analysis for 9 January 2025 suggests that higher demand from China may trigger growth in Brent prices.

Overall, the oil market remains influenced by numerous factors, including geopolitical situations, economic forecasts, and actions of key oil producers. Oil quotes continue to respond to changes in supply and demand, and geopolitical risks.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Brent Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY is on the rise again, and there is more to come

The USDJPY pair rose to 158.36 on Friday. Uncertainty persists regarding the Bank of Japan’s stance on interest rates. Find out more in our analysis for 10 January 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair reaches new multi-year highs
• The yen will remain under pressure until the Bank of Japan clarifies its interest rate policy
• USDJPY forecast for 10 January 2025: 158.45 and 159.00

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate ended the week even higher, hovering around 158.36.

The Japanese yen has now fallen to a new multi-year low. Uncertainty about the timing of an interest hike by the Bank of Japan exerts significant pressure on the JPY. As Japan’s Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said yesterday, the country’s economy is at a critical stage where overcoming the public’s deflationary mindset is essential. However, he did not specify when the BoJ might be ready to raise borrowing costs.

Japan’s household spending fell by 0.4% year-on-year in November, while earnings rose by 0.7%.

Externally, the yen faces additional pressure from a strong US dollar. The USDJPY forecast appears positive.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team