Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY strengthens despite expectations of BoJ policy tightening

Although the USDJPY rate is undergoing a correction, the selling pressure remains. The price currently stands at 154.69. More details in our analysis for 31 January 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said further rate hikes are possible
• Tokyo core inflation accelerated to 2.5% in January
• US initial jobless claims decreased to 207 thousand
• US economy grew by 2.3% year-on-year in Q4 2024
• USDJPY forecast for 31 January 2025: 153.75 and 152.35

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is rising on Friday after rebounding from the 153.85 support level. Sellers’s attempts to strengthen the yen remain restrained despite growing expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike. On Thursday, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino reiterated that the BoJ is ready to continue tightening monetary policy if economic indicators and inflation align with forecasts.

Tokyo core inflation data confirmed the BoJ’s hawkish stance, with the rate accelerating to 2.5% in January, reaching an 11-month high. The Japanese economy received additional support from strong retail sales, recovering industrial production, and an unexpected decline in the unemployment rate.

At the same time, the US economy is sending mixed signals. Although initial jobless claims decreased by 16 thousand to 207 thousand, indicating a stable US labour market, economic growth rates in Q4 were lower than expected. The country’s GDP grew by 2.3% year-on-year, below the projected 2.6%.

US inflation continues to accelerate. The PCE price index, a key inflation gauge monitored by the Federal Reserve, rose by 2.3% from 1.5% in Q3. The core PCE price index, excluding volatile components such as energy and food prices, increased by 2.5% in Q4, aligning with analysts' forecasts.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDCAD: the pair opened the week with an upward gap

The USDCAD rate soared to 1.4800 on Monday due to tariffs imposed by the US on goods from Canada and other countries over the weekend. Discover more in our analysis for 3 February 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• The US imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian goods
• Current trend: a strong uptrend
• USDCAD forecast for 3 February 2025: 1.4700 and 1.4900

Fundamental analysis

The Canadian dollar plunged sharply on Monday after US President Donald Trump introduced new tariffs on major trading partners last weekend. The US imposed 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10% tariffs on imports from China.

In response, Canada announced retaliatory tariffs, and Mexico signalled that it would consider introducing its own duties on US goods. China, in turn, said it intended to file a WTO case. Investors reacted negatively to growing trade tensions, with the US dollar rising and global stock index futures declining.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDCAD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD: the pair is recovering after the fall

The EURUSD rate returned to 1.0350 as part of a correction after declining at the market opening on Monday. This week, market participants are awaiting US labour market statistics. Find out more in our analysis for 4 February 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: market participants are awaiting US labour market statistics this week, including ADP data, nonfarm payrolls, and the unemployment rate
• Current trend: a downtrend
• EURUSD forecast for 4 February 2025: 1.0350 and 1.0200

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair recovered slightly after the fall caused by the introduction of US restrictive tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China. Investors are concerned about the continuation of trade wars, which may also affect the eurozone. US President Donald Trump earlier promised to consider imposing tariffs on European goods.

This week, the market will focus on US employment statistics, with ADP data, nonfarm payrolls, and the unemployment rate scheduled for release. Stronger-than-expected data will support the US dollar, potentially pushing the EURUSD pair lower. Conversely, weaker data could drive growth in the euro.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to soar to new price highs

The increase in US nonfarm employment does not strengthen the US dollar significantly, with Gold prices continuing their ascent to 2,880 USD. Discover more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 5 February 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• The US ADP nonfarm employment change: previously at 122 thousand, projected at 148 thousand
• The US services PMI: previously at 56.8, projected at 52.8
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 5 February 2025: 2,830 and 2,880

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD forecast for 5 February 2025 shows that XAUUSD prices have broken above the 2,850 USD level, with the pair likely to continue its upward momentum.

The US nonfarm employment change is a national employment report from ADP, which tracks changes in nonfarm jobs based on data from about 400 thousand business sources. The report is published two days before official US employment data. The reading is currently projected at 148 thousand. If the actual data aligns with expectations, the market may see increased volatility. Conversely, worse-than-forecast data may weaken the USD against Gold.

The US services PMI is expected to decline to 52.8. A stronger-than-expected PMI reading will provide some support to the US dollar.

The XAUUSD price forecast appears rather optimistic as the quotes have the potential to reach 2,880 USD.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY is under pressure amid expectations of a BoJ rate hike

The USDJPY rate is declining for the fourth consecutive trading session, with the price currently at 152.44. Discover more in our analysis for 6 February 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Expectations of another Bank of Japan interest rate hike are rising
• Data showed Tokyo wages rose by 0.6% in December
• Japan’s nominal wages reached the highest level in nearly 30 years
• USDJPY forecast for 6 February 2025: 150.75 and 149.40

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate fell to an eight-week low amid expectations of another Bank of Japan interest rate hike. Minister of Finance Katsunobu Kato said that inflation could rise further, increasing the likelihood of monetary policy tightening and driving the current decline in the currency pair.

Additionally, the latest data showed strong wage growth, with Tokyo’s figures rising for the second consecutive month, up 0.6% in December, while analysts expected a 0.7% decline. Nominal wage growth hit the highest level in nearly 30 years, adding to inflationary pressures.

These factors strengthen expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates in 2025. The increasing contrast with the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of two rate cuts before the end of the year may support the yen’s strength as part of today’s USDJPY forecast.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) rises ahead of crucial US labour market data

XAUUSD prices are rising after rebounding from the support level, with the quotes currently at 2,863 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 7 February 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• XAUUSD quotes are rising for the sixth consecutive week amid increased demand for Gold
• Increased buying is driven by concerns caused by trade uncertainty and the release of the US employment report
• XAUUSD forecast for 7 February 2025: 2,885 and 2,915

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes have been rising for the sixth consecutive week as demand for Gold has increased amid the current trade uncertainty. Investors are actively buying up the precious metal ahead of the crucial US employment report. According to traders, Gold remains in a strong uptrend, with analysts revising their forecasts upwards, expecting sustainable growth amid US political hyperactivity and massive hedging by global central banks and investors.

Markets are now focused on the US employment data, which may provide insight into the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. An economy with full employment, steady growth, and easing inflation will allow the Fed to continue its rate-cutting cycle. Markets expect the regulator to lower the rate by another 100 basis points in the process. This will inevitably lead to a decline in US Treasury bond yields and a cheaper cost of owning Gold.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD: the pair declines after the US labour market statistics

The EURUSD rate edged down to 1.0300 following Friday’s release of mixed US employment data. Discover more in our analysis for 10 February 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech today
• Current trend: the downtrend
• EURUSD forecast for 10 February 2025: 1.0200 and 1.0350

Fundamental analysis

The US labour market statistics for January became available last Friday, including Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. The Nonfarm Payrolls data came in slightly worse than expected at 143 thousand jobs, below the forecast of 170 thousand. Conversely, the unemployment rate data exceeded expectations, showing a decline to 4.0% (previously at 4.1%).

The EURUSD pair reacted to the US data release with a moderate decline, falling to the price area around 1.0300. Today, market participants will focus on ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech, which could shed light on the outlook for the regulator’s monetary policy.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team