Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to correct, plunging below 2,860 USD

XAUUSD quotes are undergoing a downward correction, dipping to 2,860 USD. Market participants are awaiting US inflation statistics today. Find more details in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 28 February 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: US consumer inflation data is due today – the PCE price index
• Current trend: a downward correction
• XAUUSD forecast for 28 February 2025: 2,833 and 2,870

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD prices went into a downward correction after setting an all-time high of 2,956 USD. Gold prices are now under pressure from a stronger US dollar and the talks on a peaceful agreement to resolve the military conflict in Ukraine.

During the American trading session today, market participants will focus on the US inflation data for January, with the PCE price index scheduled for release. The figure is expected to grow by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year.

The Federal Reserve takes into account inflation data when deciding on interest rate changes. Weaker-than-forecast statistics will put pressure on the USD and help Gold strengthen. Conversely, stronger-than-expected growth will support the US dollar, potentially pushing XAUUSD quotes lower.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) prices may rise as stock exchanges avoid risk

Gold quotes are awaiting news, hovering around 2,888 USD, with the market in great tension. Discover more in our XAUUSD analysis for 4 March 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold (XAUUSD) prices are not rising yet but are poised for a rally
• The capital market will need safe-haven assets in large quantities
• XAUUSD forecast for 4 March 2025: 2,895 and 2,921

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices are consolidating around 2,888 USD on Tuesday.

The market is assessing the US steps to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on China starting today. China has already responded that it would introduce retaliatory tariffs of 15% on some US goods, including beef and soya beans.

These measures help expand trade wars. They, in turn, will launch a new round of inflationary growth and a slowdown in global economic development, with both factors strengthening the status of Gold as a safe-haven asset.

Yesterday’s statistics showed a slowdown in the growth rate of the US factory activity. This raises concerns that the White House tariffs will undermine the already slowing economy of the country.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Gold Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY forecast: the pair returned to around 150.00, with US ADP employment in focus

The USDJPY rate hit this year’s new low of 148.10 yesterday before retracing to 150.00. Market participants are awaiting US ADP labour market statistics today. Discover more in our analysis for 5 March 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: market participants are awaiting US employment statistics for February today, with the ADP employment change data scheduled for release
• Current trend: correcting within the downtrend
• USDJPY forecast for 5 March 2025: 151.00 and 148.10

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate hit a new annual low of 148.10 yesterday. The Japanese yen is in demand as market participants expect the Bank of Japan to continue to raise the benchmark interest rate this year amid an unexpected uptick in inflation in Q4 2024 and positive GDP data.

Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) will release US employment statistics for February during the American session today. Stronger-than-expected data (+140 thousand jobs) will support the US dollar and the USDJPY pair may form a local upward reversal. Conversely, weaker-than-forecast figures could push the quotes lower.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD rallies: parity is forgotten

The EURUSD pair is hovering around 1.0806 on Thursday, with the euro reaching the high seen in early November 2024. Find out more in our EURUSD analysis for 6 March 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair hit highs observed in early November 2024
• Germany’s plans and the general positive sentiment about the eurozone outlook support the euro
• EURUSD forecast for 6 March 2025: 1.0820

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate rose to 1.0806, which was last seen by the market on 8 November 2024.

The US dollar is under pressure from a strong euro and evolving consequences of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy. New US trade tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico have provoked retaliatory measures from these countries. This stance raises concerns about escalating trade wars, which could slow down US economic growth.

The market is now awaiting fresh US employment statistics. The ADP data showed that the US private sector added just 77 thousand jobs in February, the smallest gain in seven months. The main reports are due on Friday.

The euro is rising as the 500 billion euro infrastructure fund proposed by Germany and plans to reconsider borrowing rules have improved the eurozone outlook. The ECB meeting is scheduled for today, with the regulator likely to lower the interest rate to 2.65% per annum from the current 2.90%.

Read this article on RoboForex website - EURUSD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY fell to a five-month low: the yen acts as a safe-haven asset

The USDJPY pair is hovering around 147.60 on Friday as the market needs safe-haven assets. Discover more in our analysis for 7 March 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair fell to its lowest level since 8 October 2024
• The market is in dire need of safe-haven assets and favours the yen
• USDJPY forecast for 7 March 2025: 147.29

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate fell to 147.60, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid the escalating global trade war and the volatile tariff policy of US President Donald Trump.

The market is concerned about the possible impact on the US economy, which prompts investors to shift from the US dollar to the yen and Swiss franc.

Domestically, the JPY position and Japan’s government bond yields strengthened on expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates this year.

This week, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said that the regulator could raise rates further if its economic forecasts prove true. Such comments could be interpreted as the beginning of a withdrawal from a sweeping monetary easing program.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDJPY Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Bank of Canada rate cut expectations support USDCAD growth

The USDCAD pair is slightly declining, with the price currently at 1.4365. Discover more in our analysis for 10 March 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• Canada’s economy added only 1 thousand jobs, falling short of the expected 20 thousand
• Expectations of a Bank of Canada key rate cut rose due to weak employment data
• USDCAD forecast for 10 March 2025: 1.4495

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD rate is correcting after Friday’s surge, primarily driven by a mixed US employment report. In February, the country’s economy added 151 thousand jobs, below the forecast of 160 thousand, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.0%, and wage growth slowed to 0.3%.

However, the Canadian labour market was in an even more challenging situation. Unemployment remained at 6.6%, with the economy creating only 1 thousand jobs, falling short of the expected 20 thousand.

Such a sharp slowdown compared to the sustainable growth seen since August 2024 heightened expectations of a 25-basis-point Bank of Canada key rate cut at the meeting this week. According to the USDCAD forecast for today, such expectations may support further growth of the currency pair despite the current correction.

Read this article on RoboForex website - USDCAD Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Brent remains under pressure due to increased output and problems in China

Brent quotes are slightly rising, currently standing at 68.95 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 11 March 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• An economic slowdown in China raises concerns about future oil demand
• The increase in US and Canadian rigs boosts oil supply
• Brent forecast for 11 March 2025: 66.65

Fundamental analysis

Brent quotes are correcting after rebounding from the 68.45 USD support level. Prices are under pressure from global trade tensions, the expected increase in OPEC+ supply, and the uptick in oil production in North America. In February, US rigs added 8 units, reaching 590 rigs, while rigs in Canada increased by 38 units to 247.

An additional negative factor is the weakening of the Chinese economy, the largest oil consumer. Rising deflation in the country raises concerns about future oil demand. All these factors combined create an unfavourable environment for oil quotes, which, as part of the Brent price forecast, increases the risks of its further decline.

Read this article on RoboForex website - Brent Forecast

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team