Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY consolidating
12 January 2016
Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

Yesterday's trading on the USD/JPY currency pair began with a gapdown of nearly 30 pips below the Friday's close level. At the Asian session, the pair tumbled by about another 50 pips, following the trend, and formed yet another low within the past 5 months in the 116.66 area. Nevertheless, the bulls reacted immediately – the market returned to the 118th figure in a couple of hours and had been consolidating until the end of the day. It should be noted that the bulls were stalled by the Tenkan and Kijun lines that had formed a powerful resistance at this level.

Today's trading began with the rate's decline as well and, so far, the prices are remaining in the negative zone. The dead cross was canceled, but the cloud is still bearish. A long-term consolidation is possible, with testing of the Ichimoku cloud lower border levels.

Technical levels: support – 117.20; resistance – 118.60.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 118.60; SL — 118.80; TP1 — 117.60; TP2 — 117.20.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7551

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/USD: bearish pressure persists
12 January 2016
By Kira Iukhtenko

Despite the recent recovery of GBP/USD, the majority of analysts maintain a bearish view for the pair. The current descending channel remains active. For instance, Credit Suisse holds a SHORT position since January 11 from 1.4595, targeting 1.4405 and with a stop loss at 1.4650. Analysts at Morgan Stanley recommend selling GBP/USD on a sustainable break below the 1.4560 mark, targeting 1.3500 in the medium term. Stop loss is recommended to be set at 1.3500.

From the fundamental viewpoint, expectations for a BOE rate hike in the coming months are now pretty low amid the weak UK economic figures. Manufacturing production data on Tuesday disappointed to the downside. Meanwhile, the Fed is widely expected to hike in March. This means that policy divergence between the BOE and the Fed is widening. This is a bearish factor for GBP/USD.

Chart. Weekly GBP/USD

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7555

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Societe Generale: trading USD/CHF
12 January 2016
Analysts at Societe Generale point out that in October USD/CHF broke to the upside the triangle, within which it was trading since the beginning of 2015. Then the greenback pulled back to the upper border of the pattern in the 0.9750 and once again went higher.

As a result, the specialists expect the pair to rise to the upper border of the upward channel in the 1.0420/1.0660 zone. The short-term target is at 1.0200 – this level is provided by the inverse Head & Shoulders pattern market on the chart.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7558

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for January 13

By Kira Iukhtenko

Economic calendar on Wednesday consists of a couple events, but they are very important in the current market conditions. Watch the Chinese trade balance in the Asian session. Contraction of the trade surplus could become an important risk-off factor. Later in the day, US are scheduled to release crude oil inventories figures. According to the preliminary estimates, we could see more inventories growth. These two releases could hit the markets with a new wave of selling.

In the current conditions, we recommend staying out of the risky assets. EUR/USDholds slightly above the 1.0840 support (50% Fibo from the early January rally). Break below could trigger a new wave of selling with a target of 1.0800.

GBP/USD fell below the 1.4500 support after a short-term correction. The market was disappointed by the UK manufacturing PMI on Tuesday. The market is now focusing on a BOE meeting on Thursday – no rate hike is expected.

USD/JPY tries to recover for a second day in a row, but the attempts are rather unsuccessful. Yen will remain in-demand as a safe haven. Break to the downside from the current 117-118 yen sideways range is expected. Watch the 116.50 support.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7562

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Euro remained inside cloud
13 January 2016

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The major currency pair on Forex keeps trading within the four-hour Ichimoku cloud. By the end of yesterday's trading, the pair's rate was sliding to the 08th figure area, testing the cloud's lower border support. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines have responded to this decrease this morning and formed a dead cross. However, the bears should probably not keep their hopes up, since Kijun-sen has immediately gone up, predicting a possible return of big buyers to the market. Therefore, in case the Senkou Span A support stands today, the pair will be once again rising to 1.1000. Otherwise, transition to under the cloud may cuase the pair to tumble at least up to 1.0650.

Technical levels: support – 1.0800, 1.0650; resistance – 1.0880, 1.0940.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.0840; SL — 1.0820; TP1 — 1.0880; TP2 — 1.0940.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7566

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
AUD/USD: buy target - 0.7100
13 January 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• AUD/USD reversed from pivotal support level 0.6940
• Next buy target - 0.7100

AUD/USD continues to rise after the recent upward reversal from the pivotal support level 0.6940 (which also previously reversed the pair twice in last September, as can be seen from the daily AUD/USD chart below). The support zone near the support level 0.6940 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from the support level 0.6940 completed the previous minor correction 2.

Given the oversold reading on the daily Stochastic indicator - AUD/USD is likely to rise further in the active minor impulse wave 3 toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7100 (previous monthly low from December).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7570

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
NZD/CHF: buy target - 0.6700
13 January 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• NZD/CHF reversed from support area
• Next buy target - 0.6700

NZD/CHF recently reversed up sharply from the support area located between the support level 0.6500 (which also previously reversed the pair with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern the Hammer in December, as you can see below), the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp intermediate (A)-wave from August.

Given the strength of the aforementioned support zone and the oversold reading on the daily Stochastic - NZD/CHF can be expected to correct up from the current levels toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.6700.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7571

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for January 14

Risk sentiment: The market’s sentiment improved on better Chinese data. Demand for the yen and franc – traditional safe havens – and the euro declined pulling down their exchange rates vs. the greenback.

As for the US dollar, pay attention to the release of jobless claims and, more importantly, the speech of the new FOMC voting member Bullard at 13:30 GMT. Bullard is hawkish, so his comments will be potentially bullish for USD.

EUR/USD: The pair once again tested support at 1.0800. Below this point it will likely fall to 1.0760 (bottom of the daily Ichimoku) and 1.0670 (bottom of the bearish channel). Choose conservative selling targets as the market’s risk sentiment has yet to stabilize.

USD/JPY: The pair tried to find an interim bottom. However, there are still many important resistance levels on the upside (118.70, 119.15 and 119.60), so be careful with trading on the greenback’s recovery.

GBP/USD: The pound is oversold after falling to the multiyear low. Support is at 1.4350/00. The next important level on the downside is 1.4228 (2010 low). The downtrend is still in force. The Bank of England will announce results of its meeting at 12:00 GMT. MPC member McCafferty, who was calling for a rate hike, may this time vote to keep rates unchanged. Although such outcome is partly priced in, there may be more negative for the cable and will consider selling in the 1.4520 area with stop at 1.4570 targeting 1.4400/1.4350. Increase above 1.4570 is needed to confirm an interim bottom.

AUD/USD: Australia will release labor market data at 00:30 GMT. According to the forecast, the unemployment rate will increase, so the return down to 0.6930/00 remains a base scenario. If the data bring positive surprise, the upside should be limited by 0.7115 (the former support line).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7575

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/CAD: buy target - 1.4600
14 January 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• USD/CAD approached buy target 1.4400
• Next buy target - 1.4600

USD/CAD is currently approaching the resistance level 1.4400, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The pair has been rising sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the 3rd minor impulse wave (iii) (which belongs to the 5th minor impulse wave 5 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the middle of October) – which recently broke the two daily up channels from October and June.

If the pair breaks above 1.4400 - USD/CAD will then, most likely, rise to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.4600 (target price calculated for the completion of the active intermediate impulse wave (3)).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7583

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Morgan Stanley: open FX positions
14 January 2016

EUR/AUD: Hold LONG from 1.5780, TAKE PROFIT 1.6200, STOP LOSS 1.4850 (entered on January 7)

USD/CAD: Hold LONG from 1.3287, TAKE PROFIT 1.4500, STOP LOSS 1.3930 (entered on November 19)

NZD/USD: Limit order to SELL from 0.6740, TAKE PROFIT 0.6000, STOP LOSS 0.6900 (entered on January 7)

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7582

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Aussie is bound down again
14 January 2016
Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

Trading on the AUD/USD currency pair closed on a negative note yesterday. Despite the active buying in the morning, the rate had dropped into the 0.6950 area, to this week's lows, by the end of the day. These extremes have been updated to 0.6920 at the Asian session today. Within this time, all lines of the four-hour Ichimoku indicator have turned down, proving the bears' dominance in the market.

Nevertheless, the pair's local oversoldness is making the short-term market participants close their positions which is leading to the correctional growth. During today's trading, a testing of the Tenkan and Kijun lines levels is possible, followed by a likely resumption of the downtrend.

Technical levels: support – 0.6900/30; resistance – 0.6980, 0.7000.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 0.6980; SL — 0.7000; TP1 — 0.6930; TP2 — 0.6900.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7579

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/CAD: buy targets - 1.5800 and 1.6000
14 January 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• EUR/CAD broke strong resistance zone
• Next buy targets - 1.5800 and 1.6000

EUR/CAD continues to rise strongly – following the earlier sharp breakout of the strong resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 1.5400 and 1.5540 (this resistance level earlier stopped with the daily Evening Star the sharp intermediate impulse wave (1) in last August, as you can see below). The breakout of this resistance zone is likely to strengthen the bullish pressure on this currency pair in the coming trading sessions.

EUR/CAD is likely to rise further in the active impulse waves 3 and (3) toward the next buy target at 1.5800 – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 1.6000.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7584

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for January 15

By Kira Iukhtenko

Markets are trying to recover the recent losses on Thursday, but we have no reasons to believe that the global selloff is over. EUR/USD attempted to grow, but was capped at 1.0940 after the dovish ECB minutes released. It turned out that some members voted for a 20 bps rate cut in December. Be believe a break below 1.0850 will open the way t0 1.0800. These days we're trading with small targets as volatility remains very high.

Chart. EUR/USD H4

GBP/USD failed to fix above the 1.4400 resistance despite the hawkish BOE minutes. They showed that the Commitee sees no big problems in the current market meltdown. We see that the upside is limited for now. Sell the cable on a break below 1.4380. We'll stay bearish in the medium term below 1.4500.

Chart. GBP/USD H4

Meanwhile, USD/JPY is trying to recover the recent losses. Key resistance – 118.30 (Thursday's high). Break higher could confirm an inverse "head-and-shoulders" pattern and open the way for a stronger recovery. However, buying at current levels is very risky.

Chart. USD/JPY H4

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7586

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: forecast for January 18-24
15 January 2016
By Elizabeth Belugina

The Bank of Japan once again pointed out that for now it is not planning to ease monetary policy, though it will do so in case of the risk that inflation won’t reach the target level. Thus, the prospect of decline in the BOJ’s inflation forecast at the end of January will limit advance of Japanese yen.

Decline of USD/JPY has slowed down, and it tried to base above 117.00. At the same time, to form an interim bottom the pair needs to break above resistance at 118.30 and even 118.70. In case of the bullish scenario, the targets of an upward correction will lie at 119.60/120.00. The next support is at 116.50 (support line) and 116.15 (August 2015 low). If the pair falls to the 116.00 area in the next 2 weeks, we’ll see it as a medium-/long-term buying opportunity.

Japan’s economic calendar for the next week includes data of lower importance such as revised industrial production and tertiary industry activity on Monday and manufacturing PMI on Friday. The pair will be driven mainly by the market’s risk sentiment, so watch Chinese GDP and industrial production release on Tuesday. Lower readings will make USD/JPY fall. US data releases, which will peak on Wednesday, are also important.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7593

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
NZD/JPY: sell target - 74.50
15 January 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• NZD/JPY falling inside impulse waves 3 and (3)
• Next sell target - 74.50

NZD/JPY recently reversed down with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star from the resistance level 77.50 (former upper boundary of the narrow sideways price range inside which the pair traded from August to September). The downward reversal from the resistance level 77.50 started the active minor impulse wave 3 – which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the end of December.

NZD/JPY is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves 3 and (3) toward the next sell target at the support level 74.50 (which previously reversed the pair sharply in September).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7592

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
CAD/JPY: sell targets - 80.00 and 79.00
15 January 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• CAD/JPY reached sell target 82.00
• Next sell targets - 80.00 and 79.00

CAD/JPY continues to fall after the earlier breakout of the support level 82.00, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level continues the active minor impulse wave 5 (which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from October) – which recently broke the daily down channel from last year, as you can see below.

CAD/JPY is expected to fall further in the active downward impulse waves 5, (3) and ③ toward the next sell target at the support level 80.00 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 79.00 (target price for the termination of the active impulse wave 5).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7591

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: forecast for January 18-24
15 January 2016
By Elizabeth Belugina

The single currency has been rather stable versus the US dollar in the recent weeks as last month the European Central Bank did less monetary easing than expected. In addition, the euro was supported as a safe haven on the back of Chinese equity turmoil. However, the minutes of the ECB’s December meeting showed that the central bank sees the need to cut deposit rate once again if inflation turns out to be below its already reduced forecasts. One of the reasons of weak inflation in the euro area are the oil prices, which hit 12-year lows.

The ECB will meet once again on Thursday. Although its policy is expected to remain unchanged, the prospect of more easing in March is real. As a result, it may be hard for EUR/USD to break above 1.1000/1.1040. On the downside, we’ll focus on 1.0800, the bottom of the daily Ichimoku Cloud at 1.0760 or even 1.0660 if the ECB is very dovish. All in all, technical indicators are mainly in the neutral state, so pick small profit targets while trading.

Other important events in the euro area’s economic calendar next week include the euro area’s and German ZEW economic sentiment indexes on Tuesday and European manufacturing and services PMIs on Friday.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7594

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/USD: forecast for January 18-24

By Kira Iukhtenko

British currency remains under bearish pressure for a third week in a row: the cable plummeted below 1.44 on the past week. We see potential for more downside in the coming days. However, note that the pair is approaching a strong long-term support at 1.4220 which was the low in 2010. Many short positions will be closed at these levels.

The pair is strongly oversold these days: pay attention to the daily RSI index.Disappointing news from the US could trigger a strong correction to the upside. Resistance lies at 1.4450. Break higher could open the way for more growth to 1.48, but it’s too early to forecast in such a long prospect these days. Markets change their mind very fast.

As for the economic calendar, watch the UK Inflation figures on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a block of labor market data will be released and don’t miss the UK retail sales on Friday.

Market attention all over the world is now glued to two topics: China and oil. Lack of risk appetite is supporting the US currency versus the risky assets (AUD, NZD, CAD), but limits the upside in pairs with the safe assets (EUR, JPY). This trend is expected to continue until the markets calm down.

Will the Fed hike rates further in March? This is a meaningful question for the market. According to the futures market, the probability is now 40%. However, as the Chinese meltdown continues, the market will not price these expectations in the coming weeks.

US economic calendar for the new week is rather light. Monday is a bank holiday in the US. On Wednesday, watch the December consumer inflation data. Falling oil prices are expected to pull the index into the negative territory. On Thursday, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will be published.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7597

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis (18.01)

Comments: 0​

Roman Petuchov
Daily. The market keeps on forming a corrective wave (4), it is close to its end. The price is expected to grow in a wave Z.

H4. Wave Z takes form of a simple ascending zigzag. Wave [c] of Z is now being developped. Price is expected to grow. Be careful, though: if growth fails to contunue in the first 2-3 days of the week, the forecast will be negated.

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https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7615

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: weekly wave analysis (18.01)
18 January 2016
Roman Petuchov

Daily. After the end of the triangle, we've seen a sharp drop in a descending impulse [C].

H4. The wave [C] hasn't been finished yet, so we expect the market to decline to the downside. Corrective waves are expected to be built.

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https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7616