News Announcement & Chart Analysis by PlexyTrade

[MiloPlexyTrade]

1st November 2024

Friday​

On November 1st, several high-impact news releases are scheduled. Switzerland will kick off with the release of its monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI). Following this, the United States will release several key economic indicators, including Average Hourly Earnings (month-over-month), Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, and ISM Manufacturing PMI. Each of these announcements is expected to significantly influence market movements.​

CHF – CPI m/m​

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, with its monthly release occurring approximately three days after the end of the month. This indicator is crucial for currency valuation, as a CPI reading that exceeds forecasts typically signals favorable conditions for the currency. Consumer prices are a significant component of overall inflation, which in turn influences central bank policies; rising inflation often prompts the central bank to increase interest rates to maintain price stability. CPI is derived by sampling and comparing the average prices of a variety of goods and services from one period to the next.


In September 2024, Switzerland's consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.3% compared to the previous month, reaching 107.2 points, according to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (FSO). This marks a +0.8% increase compared to the same month in 2023. The decline in prices was largely driven by reductions in international package holidays, air transport, and fuel costs such as petrol, heating oil, and diesel. On the other hand, prices for clothing, footwear, and certain fresh produce, like berries and fruiting vegetables, saw an increase. Core inflation, which excludes volatile components like fresh products and energy, decreased by 0.2% from the previous month but rose by 1.0% year-over-year.​

TL;DR

• Switzerland's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2024:
  • Monthly change: -0.3%
  • Yearly change: +0.8%
  • CPI Value: 107.2 points
• Main drivers of price decline:
  • Lower costs for international package holidays, air transport, and fuel (petrol, heating oil, diesel)
• Price increases observed in:
  • Clothing, footwear, and certain fresh produce (berries, fruiting vegetables)
• Core Inflation:
  • Monthly change: -0.2%
  • Yearly change: +1.0%
  • Excludes volatile items such as fresh produce and energy

The forecast shows 0.0%, an improvement from the previous -0.3% result.

The upcoming CPI m/m is set to be released on Friday at 7:30 AM GMT.

USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m​

The Average Hourly Earnings m/m indicator measures the change in wages that businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming sector. If the 'Actual' figure exceeds the 'Forecast,' it generally benefits the currency. Traders pay close attention to this indicator because it acts as a leading indicator of consumer inflation; when businesses face higher labor costs, these increased expenses are often passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.

In September, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 13 cents, or 0.4%, reaching $35.36, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the past year, wages have increased by 4.0%, reflecting steady growth in earnings amid broader job gains. Average hourly earnings for private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees also saw a rise of 8 cents, or 0.3%, bringing the average to $30.33. These wage increases come as total nonfarm payroll employment grew by 254,000, and the labor market remained resilient.​

TL;DR

• Average hourly earnings for all private nonfarm employees rose by 13 cents (0.4%) to $35.36.
• Wages for all employees have increased by 4.0% over the past year.
• Average hourly earnings for private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 8 cents (0.3%) to $30.33.
• Total nonfarm payroll employment grew by 254,000 jobs.
• The labor market remains resilient amid these gains.

The forecast indicates 0.3%, slightly down from the previous 0.4% result.

USD - Non-Farm Employment Change​

The Non-Farm Employment Change measures the change in the number of employed individuals in the economy during the previous month, excluding those in the farming sector. This indicator is crucial for currency traders because a higher-than-expected 'actual' figure compared to the 'forecast' typically signals a positive economic outlook, leading to currency appreciation. Job creation is a key leading indicator of consumer spending, which drives a significant portion of overall economic activity. Thus, strong employment figures often suggest a robust economy and can influence currency values accordingly.


In September, the U.S. added 254,000 jobs, surpassing economist expectations of 140,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. The Labor Department’s report, released just weeks before the election, was touted by President Biden as evidence of a strong economy, with 16 million jobs created under his administration. Wages were also reported to be growing faster than prices, while inflation and interest rates continued to decline. The report followed the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in over two years, with economists predicting a measured approach to future cuts. Additionally, revisions showed upward adjustments to July and August job figures. Despite earlier signs of labor market weakening, analysts noted the job market was "firming up," calming fears of an economic downturn.​

TL;DR

Key Metric	Details

Jobs Added (September)

254,000 (exceeded expectation of 140,000)

Unemployment Rate

4.1%

Jobs Created (under Biden)

16 million

Wage Growth

Growing faster than prices

Inflation

Declining

Interest Rates

Declining, with recent Federal Reserve cut

Federal Reserve's Rate Cut

First in over two years

Job Revisions (July & August)

Upward adjustments

Labor Market Commentary

"Firming up," calming recession concerns

Analysts' Outlook

Measured approach to future rate cuts

The forecast predicts 108,000, down from the previous outcome of 254,000.

USD - Unemployment Rate​

The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment over the previous month. When the actual rate is lower than the forecasted rate, it is generally positive for the currency. Traders pay close attention to this figure because, despite being a lagging indicator, it reflects overall economic health and is closely linked to consumer spending. Additionally, the unemployment rate is crucial for shaping monetary policy, making it a key concern for policymakers and investors alike.


In September, the U.S. unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, with 6.8 million people unemployed, reflecting little change from the previous month. However, these figures are higher than a year ago when the unemployment rate was 3.8% and 6.3 million were unemployed. The unemployment rate for adult men decreased to 3.7%, while rates for adult women, teenagers, and various racial and ethnic groups showed little or no change. Additionally, the number of people unemployed for less than five weeks decreased by 322,000, while long-term unemployment remained steady at 1.6 million, accounting for 23.7% of the unemployed population. Labor force participation and the employment-population ratio also showed minimal movement.​

TL;DR

• Unemployment Rate: 4.1% in September, unchanged from the previous month but higher than 3.8% a year ago.
• Total Unemployed: 6.8 million people, similar to the previous month but up from 6.3 million a year ago.
• Adult Men Unemployment Rate: Decreased to 3.7%.
• Other Groups (Women, Teens, Racial/Ethnic Groups): Little or no change in unemployment rates.
• Short-term Unemployed (<5 weeks): Decreased by 322,000.
• Long-term Unemployed (≥27 weeks): Remained steady at 1.6 million, representing 23.7% of the unemployed.
• Labor Force Participation & Employment-Population Ratio: Showed minimal movement.

The forecast indicates 4.1%, matching the previous result.

The upcoming Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate is set to be released on Friday at 12:30 PM GMT.

USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI​

The ISM Manufacturing PMI, also known as the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business, is a diffusion index based on a survey of approximately 300 purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, and it measures the level of business conditions such as employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; a reading above 50.0 indicates industry expansion and is favorable for currency if it surpasses forecasts, as it serves as a leading indicator of economic health due to the purchasing managers' up-to-date insights into their company's view of the economy.


In September 2024, U.S. manufacturing continued to contract for the sixth consecutive month, with the Manufacturing PMI holding steady at 47.2%, unchanged from August, according to the ISM report. Key indicators such as new orders, production, employment, & order backlogs remained in negative territory. The New Orders Index rose slightly to 46.1%, while production improved but stayed below the 50% growth threshold at 49.8%. Employment saw a sharper decline, dropping to 43.9%, as companies adjusted staffing to match reduced demand. Inventories shrank significantly, with the Inventories Index falling to 43.9%, down 6.4 percentage points from August. Supplier deliveries slowed, while exports & imports both contracted, reflecting continued weakness in international markets, with the New Export Orders Index declining to 45.3%. Notably, input costs decreased for the first time in eight months, as the Prices Index dropped to 48.3%, signaling lower prices for key commodities like steel, aluminum, & crude oil. The report highlighted economic uncertainty due to high interest rates & the upcoming U.S. elections, which discouraged companies from making significant investments in capital or inventory. Only the Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products sector showed growth, while other industries, including chemical products, machinery, & fabricated metals, remained in contraction. Overall, 77% of the manufacturing GDP saw a decline, with the share of GDP registering a PMI below 45% increasing from 33% in August to 41% in September, underscoring widespread challenges in the sector.​

TL;DR

• Manufacturing PMI: Held steady at 47.2%, marking six consecutive months of contraction.
• New Orders Index: Rose slightly to 46.1% but remained in contraction.
• Production Index: Improved to 49.8% yet stayed below the growth threshold (50%).
• Employment Index: Dropped to 43.9%, indicating sharper reductions in staffing due to lower demand.
• Inventories Index: Fell significantly to 43.9%, down 6.4 points from August, showing reduced stock levels.
• Supplier Deliveries: Slowed, pointing to reduced demand.
• New Export Orders Index: Declined to 45.3%, reflecting ongoing weakness in international markets.
• Imports: Contracted, reinforcing global demand challenges.
• Prices Index: Decreased to 48.3%, marking the first drop in input costs in eight months, notably for steel, aluminum, and crude oil.
• Economic Uncertainty: High interest rates and the upcoming U.S. elections deterred investment in capital and inventory.
• Growing Sector: Only the Food, Beverage & Tobacco sector showed growth.
• Sectors in Contraction: Chemical products, machinery, and fabricated metals remained in contraction.
• Manufacturing GDP Impact: 77% of manufacturing GDP was in decline, with the share of GDP under a PMI of 45% rising from 33% in August to 41% in September.

The forecast indicates 47.6 compared to previous 47.2 outcome.

The next ISM Manufacturing PMI is scheduled for release on Friday at 2:00 PM GMT.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

5th November 2024

Tuesday​

On November 5th, several key announcements are scheduled, beginning with Australia’s release of its Cash Rate. Next, the United States will publish its ISM Services PMI, alongside the Presidential and Congressional elections happening throughout the day, which are expected to significantly impact the markets. Finally, New Zealand will announce its quarterly Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.​

AUD - Cash Rate​

In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia's Board determines the cash rate, which is the interest rate applied to overnight loans between financial institutions and is influenced by the money market's demand and supply dynamics. Traders focus on short-term interest rates as a primary factor in currency valuation, using other indicators mainly to forecast future rate changes. The cash rate is set based on a consensus reached by the Reserve Bank Board members.


The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had decided to keep the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% and the interest rate on exchange settlement balances steady at 4.25%. Although inflation had eased from its 2022 peak, it remained persistently above the central bank’s target range of 2-3%. The latest data showed underlying inflation at 3.9% over the year to June, slightly higher than anticipated, with expectations that it would not sustainably return to target until 2026. Economic growth had been sluggish, with GDP data confirming weak consumption and the ongoing impact of restrictive financial conditions. Despite some signs of easing, the labour market had remained tight, with unemployment at 4.2% in August, though wage pressures had softened. The RBA had remained focused on reducing inflation, with policymakers cautious about uncertainties in the global economy and domestic demand. While acknowledging that the outlook was unpredictable, the Board had emphasized its commitment to returning inflation to target, maintaining restrictive policies until it was confident of achieving that goal.​

TL;DR

Factor	Current Status

Cash Rate Target

Unchanged at 4.35%

Interest Rate on Exchange Balances

Steady at 4.25%

Inflation

Eased from 2022 peak but remains above 2-3% target

Underlying Inflation (June 2023)

3.9%, slightly above expectations

Inflation Target Return

Expected by 2026

Economic Growth

Sluggish; weak consumption and impact from restrictive policies

Labour Market

Tight, with 4.2% unemployment (August 2023)

Wage Pressures

Softened

Global & Domestic Outlook

Uncertain, requiring caution in policy decisions

Policy Stance

Restrictive, with commitment to return inflation to target

The forecast stands at 4.35% the same as previous outcome.


The upcoming Cash Rate release is set to be released on Tuesday at 3:30 AM GMT.

USD - ISM Services PMI​

The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business is a monthly index based on surveys from approximately 300 purchasing and supply executives nationwide. It tracks changes in indicators such as Business Activity, New Orders, and Employment, with readings above 50% signaling expansion and below 50% indicating contraction. Given that service orders account for about 90% of the US economy, the report provides crucial insights into economic health and business sentiment, making it a key leading indicator for traders.


In September, the US service sector showed significant growth, with the Services PMI rising to 54.9 from 51.5, surpassing market expectations. Despite an increase in the Prices Paid Index to 59.4, indicating persistent inflation, the Employment Index declined to 48.1. Although inflation has been trending downward, the core PCE Index remained high at 2.7%. An ISM Services PMI aligning with expectations suggests a manageable economic outlook, though any unexpected downturn could impact market sentiment and increase demand for safe-haven assets like the US Dollar.​

TL;DR

• ISM Services PMI rose to 54.9 from 51.5, showing significant growth and surpassing expectations.
• Prices Paid Index increased to 59.4, indicating persistent inflation.
• Employment Index declined to 48.1, suggesting a drop in employment within the service sector.
• Core PCE Index remains high at 2.7%, despite the broader downward trend in inflation.
• The economic outlook aligns with expectations, but any unexpected downturn could boost demand for safe-haven assets like the US Dollar.

The ISM Services PMI forecast is 53.4, down from the previous figure of 54.9.


The ISM Services PMI will be released on Tuesday at 3:00 PM GMT.

USD - Presidential Election​

Voters across the United States will soon head to the polls to elect the nation’s next President, an event held every four years that draws significant attention worldwide. Based on early voting data and exit polls, projections are likely to indicate a winner before the official count is completed, although the full tally will follow. This election, with high stakes and intense public interest, has been closely watched, with the White House serving as a critical source of updates and information throughout the campaign. As the day approaches, all eyes are on the projected outcome, awaiting the formal announcement of the country’s next leader.​

The U.S. presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 5th.

USD – Congressional Elections​

Every two years, voters participate in elections to select all 435 members of the U.S. House of Representatives and 33 members of the Senate. Often referred to as the House of Representatives and Senate Elections, the results are typically projected before the official vote count concludes, based on early vote counts and exit polling.​

The Congressional elections are set to begin on Tuesday, November 5th.

NZD - Employment Change q/q​

Inflation expectations, measured quarterly, reflect the percentage change in the prices of goods and services that business managers anticipate annually over the next two years. Typically, when actual inflation surpasses these forecasts, it benefits the currency. Traders are interested because anticipated inflation can lead to actual inflation, as workers often seek higher wages in response to expected price increases. These expectations are gathered through a survey of around 100 consumers, who provide their predictions for prices 24 months ahead.


In the latest Survey of Expectations for August 2024, inflation expectations have shown a notable decline across all horizons. The mean one-year-ahead annual inflation expectation fell significantly by 33 basis points, settling at 2.40%, marking the sixth consecutive quarterly decline since June 2023. Meanwhile, the mean two-year-ahead inflation expectation also saw a decrease, dropping by 30 basis points to 2.03%. Long-term expectations followed a similar trend, with the five-year-ahead and ten-year-ahead expectations declining to 2.07% and 2.03%, respectively. This downward adjustment in inflation expectations comes in the wake of a measured annual CPI inflation of 3.3% for the June 2024 quarter, down from 4.0% the previous quarter, reflecting respondents' growing confidence in a stabilizing inflationary environment.​

TL;DR

Time Horizon	Inflation Expectation	Change (Basis Points)
One-year-ahead	2.40%	-33
Two-year-ahead	2.03%	-30
Five-year-ahead	2.07%	Decline
Ten-year-ahead	2.03%	Decline

CPI Annual Inflation	Quarter	Previous Quarter
June 2024	3.3%	4.0%

The forecast for quarterly Employment Change stands at -0.4%, down from the previous result of 0.4%.

NZD - Unemployment Rate​

The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment in the previous quarter. While it is often considered a lagging indicator, a lower-than-forecasted unemployment rate is generally positive for a currency. Traders pay close attention to this figure because it reflects overall economic health; a decrease in unemployment typically signals better labor-market conditions, which are closely linked to consumer spending and economic growth.


In the June 2024 quarter, New Zealand's unemployment rate increased to 4.6%, up from a revised 4.4% in the previous quarter, marking the highest level since early 2021. This rise came just below market expectations of 4.7%. The broader underutilisation rate, which includes those who are unemployed and others with spare labor capacity, also climbed to 11.8% from 11.2%. Despite these increases, the labor force participation rate edged slightly higher to 71.7% from 71.6% in the prior quarter.​

TL;DR

• Unemployment Rate: Increased to 4.6% in the June 2024 quarter, up from a revised 4.4% in the previous quarter, just below the market expectation of 4.7%.
• Underutilisation Rate: Rose to 11.8%, compared to 11.2% in the prior quarter, indicating more individuals with spare labor capacity.
• Labor Force Participation Rate: Edged slightly higher to 71.7% from 71.6% in the previous quarter.

The forecast for Unemployment Rate stands at 5.0% compared to previous 4.6% outcome.


New Zealand is set to release its Employment Change q/q and Unemployment Rate on Tuesday at 9:45 PM GMT.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

7th November 2024

Thursday

​

On November 7, major economic data releases are expected to capture global attention, with key announcements from the United Kingdom and the United States. Early in the day, the UK will unveil its Official Bank Rate, providing insight into the Bank of England's stance on inflation and economic growth. Later, the focus will shift to the United States, where the latest Unemployment Claims report will shed light on the labor market's health, followed by the release of the Fed Funds Rate. This decision, a crucial indicator of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, will be accompanied by a press conference where officials are expected to discuss the economic outlook and potential adjustments to financial policy. These events are likely to influence both local and global markets, sparking significant investor interest.

GBP - Official Bank Rate​

The Official Bank Rate, set by the Bank of England through a vote by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) whose individual votes are published two weeks later, represents the interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight; it is crucial for currency valuation because a rate higher than forecast is favorable for the currency, and traders prioritize short-term interest rates over other indicators to predict future rate changes.


The Bank of England had decided to keep its interest rate at 5%, despite recent moves by the US and European central banks to cut rates. The decision, which was not unanimous, saw one member of the Monetary Policy Committee voting for a rate reduction. Governor Andrew Bailey had hinted at potential future cuts, but the Bank’s forecast showed inflation was expected to rise to 2.5%. This came as official data revealed that some measures of price growth had increased, meaning borrowing costs for mortgages and credit cards were likely to remain high.​

TL;DR

Aspect	Details
Interest Rate Decision	Bank of England kept interest rate at 5%.
Vote Outcome	Decision was not unanimous; one member voted for a rate cut.
Governor’s Comments	Andrew Bailey hinted at potential future cuts.
Inflation Forecast	Inflation expected to rise to 2.5%.
Price Growth Data	Some measures of price growth have increased.
Impact on Borrowing	Borrowing costs for mortgages and credit cards likely to remain high.
Context	US and European central banks recently cut rates.

The forecast for Official Bank Rate stands at 4.75 compared to previous 5.00% outcome.

The Official Cash Rate is set to be released on Thursday at 12:00 PM GMT.

USD - Unemployment Claims​

Initial Jobless Claims track the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in a week, serving as an early indicator of U.S. economic health. While the impact on the market can vary, a higher than expected number is usually seen as negative for the USD, and a lower than expected number as positive. Traders monitor these figures closely as they reflect labor market conditions, which are directly linked to consumer spending and are crucial for shaping monetary policy.


The U.S. Department of Labor reported a drop in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending October 26, with seasonally adjusted claims falling to 216,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 228,000. The four-week moving average for initial claims also declined by 2,250 to 236,500. Insured unemployment, covering those already receiving benefits, maintained an adjusted rate of 1.2% for the week ending October 19, after a slight revision from the previous week’s rate. Insured unemployment decreased by 26,000 to 1,862,000, with the four-week average for insured claims rising slightly by 10,750 to 1,869,250, marking the highest level since late November 2021.​

TL;DR

Metric	Value	Change

Initial Claims (Seasonally Adjusted)

216,000

Decrease of 12,000

Previous Week's Initial Claims

228,000 (revised)

4-Week Moving Average (Initial Claims)

236,500

Decrease of 2,250

Insured Unemployment Rate

1.2%

Unchanged (after revision)

Insured Unemployment

1,862,000

Decrease of 26,000

4-Week Average (Insured Claims)

1,869,250

Increase of 10,750

Highest Level (4-Week Avg., Insured)

Since late November 2021

The forecast for Unemployment Claims stands at 223,000 compared to previous 216,000 outcome.

The Unemployment Claims will be released on Thursday at 1:30 PM GMT.

​

USD - Federal Funds Rate

The Federal Funds Rate, which is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to one another overnight, is crucial for currency valuation because an actual rate higher than the forecast is typically favorable for the currency; traders closely monitor this rate as short-term interest rates are the key determinant in currency value, with forecasts and other indicators mainly serving to predict future rate changes, and the rate itself is determined by the votes of FOMC members, which are detailed in the FOMC statement.


The Federal Reserve launched a series of anticipated interest rate cuts with an aggressive half-percentage-point reduction, lowering the policy rate to a range of 4.75%-5.00%. This larger-than-usual cut, the first since 2020, reflected the central bank's growing confidence that inflation was under control and marked a shift in U.S. monetary policy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the move was intended to support a strong labor market and prevent economic weakening as inflation eased. Despite the central bank’s unified front, the decision faced dissent from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, who had favored a smaller quarter-point cut. Analysts viewed the Fed's actions as part of Powell’s broader goal to avoid raising unemployment while still targeting inflation control. The central bank had also projected further cuts, predicting a total reduction of one percentage point by the following year. While the rate cut initially stirred muted reactions from presidential candidates, Vice President Kamala Harris had called it "welcome news," while Donald Trump expressed concerns that it might signal deeper economic problems. Powell, however, reaffirmed the economy's strength and reiterated the Fed’s commitment to balancing inflation control with maximum employment. Markets responded with mixed reactions, and some analysts noted that the Fed's move, described by one economist as ending the pause "with a bang," raised further questions about the future trajectory of rate cuts.​

TL;DR

Key Aspect	Details

Action Taken

Fed cut interest rates by 0.5%, lowering the policy rate to 4.75%-5.00%.

Significance

Largest rate cut since 2020, marking a shift in U.S. monetary policy and reflecting confidence in eased inflation.

Objective

Support a strong labor market, prevent economic weakening, and maintain inflation control.

Fed Chair’s Statement

Jerome Powell emphasized balancing inflation control with maximum employment.

Dissent

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman opposed the move, preferring a smaller 0.25% cut.

Projected Cuts

Fed forecasted a total rate reduction of 1 percentage point by the next year.

Political Reactions

- Vice President Kamala Harris: Called the cut "welcome news."

- Donald Trump: Expressed concerns about possible deeper economic issues.

Market Response

Mixed reactions; analysts noted the aggressive move raised questions about future rate trajectories.

Economist’s View

Described the Fed’s action as ending the policy pause "with a bang."

The forecast for Federal Funds Rate stands at 4.75% compared to previous 5.00% outcome.

The upcoming Federal Funds Rate is set to be released on Thursday at 7:00 PM GMT.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

8th November 2024

Friday

​

On November 8, Canada is set to release its latest Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data, a key economic indicator closely watched by market analysts and investors. This data release will provide insight into the country's job market health, with Employment Change reflecting the net number of jobs gained or lost and the Unemployment Rate indicating the percentage of the labor force currently without employment. These figures are expected to influence financial markets and could have significant implications for the Canadian dollar, economic policy, and business sentiment across sectors.​

CAD - Employment Change​

Employment Change Measures track the monthly variation in employment numbers. A higher-than-forecast 'Actual' figure is typically positive for the currency, as it indicates stronger job creation. Traders closely monitor this data because job growth is a crucial predictor of consumer spending, which significantly influences overall economic activity.


In September, employment in Canada rose by 47,000 (+0.2%), driven by gains among youth aged 15 to 24 (+33,000; +1.2%) and core-aged women (25 to 54 years old) (+21,000; +0.3%). Sectors with the most growth included information, culture and recreation (+22,000; +2.6%), wholesale and retail trade (+22,000; +0.8%), and professional, scientific and technical services (+21,000; +1.1%). Employment increases were concentrated in Ontario (+43,000; +0.5%) and Quebec (+22,000; +0.5%), while British Columbia (-18,000; -0.6%) and New Brunswick (-4,100; -1.0%) saw declines. Despite the gains, the employment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 60.7%, continuing a downward trend as population growth outpaced job growth. Full-time employment rose significantly (+112,000), offsetting a decline in part-time work. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 6.5%, with notable decreases among youth.​

TL;DR

• Overall Employment Growth: +47,000 (+0.2%).
• Key Demographics:
  • Youth (15-24): +33,000 (+1.2%).
  • Core-aged Women (25-54): +21,000 (+0.3%).
• Top Sectors with Growth:
  • Information, Culture, and Recreation: +22,000 (+2.6%).
  • Wholesale and Retail Trade: +22,000 (+0.8%).
  • Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services: +21,000 (+1.1%).
• Regional Employment Changes:
  • Ontario: +43,000 (+0.5%).
  • Quebec: +22,000 (+0.5%).
  • British Columbia: -18,000 (-0.6%).
  • New Brunswick: -4,100 (-1.0%).
• Employment Rate: Declined by 0.1 percentage points to 60.7%, due to population growth outpacing job growth.
• Full-Time vs Part-Time Jobs:
  • Full-time employment rose by +112,000.
  • Part-time employment declined.
• Unemployment Rate: Fell by 0.1 percentage points to 6.5%.
• Youth Unemployment: Decreased significantly.

The forecast for Employment Change stands at 27,900 compared to previous 46,700 outcome.

CAD - Unemployment Rate​

Unemployment Rate Measures represent the percentage of the workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking work from the previous month. A lower-than-forecast 'Actual' figure is generally favorable for the currency. Traders monitor this metric closely because, despite being a lagging indicator, the unemployment rate provides valuable insights into overall economic health, given that consumer spending is closely linked to labor market conditions.


In September, the unemployment rate in Canada decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.5%, marking the first decline since January. This decrease was primarily driven by a drop in youth unemployment, which fell by 1.0 percentage points to 13.5%, though it remains 2.8 percentage points higher than a year earlier. The unemployment rate for core-aged women (25-54 years) rose slightly by 0.3 percentage points to 5.3%, while core-aged men saw little change at 5.6%. Among older workers (55+), the unemployment rate dropped by 0.2 percentage points to 4.9%. However, unemployment among core-aged Black and South Asian Canadians increased over the past year, with Black Canadians seeing a rise of 3.1 percentage points to 11.0%, and South Asian Canadians experiencing a 0.9 percentage point increase to 7.3%.​

TL;DR

• Overall Unemployment Rate: Decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.5%, marking the first decline since January.
• Youth (15-24 years): Dropped by 1.0 percentage points to 13.5%, but remains 2.8 points higher than a year ago.
• Core-aged Women (25-54 years): Increased slightly by 0.3 percentage points to 5.3%.
• Core-aged Men (25-54 years): Remained relatively stable at 5.6%.
• Older Workers (55+ years): Declined by 0.2 percentage points to 4.9%.
• Core-aged Black Canadians: Increased by 3.1 percentage points over the past year to 11.0%.
• Core-aged South Asian Canadians: Rose by 0.9 percentage points over the past year to 7.3%.

The forecast for Unemployment Rate stands at 6.6% the same as previous outcome.

The upcoming Employment Change & Unemployment Rate is set to be released on Friday at 1:30 PM GMT.

​

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

12th November 2024
Tuesday
​

On November 12th, the United Kingdom is set to release a significant economic indicator: the Claimant Count Change. This metric, which measures the monthly change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits, provides valuable insight into the health of the UK labor market. Analysts and investors will be closely monitoring the announcement, as it can influence market expectations regarding employment trends and potential policy responses from the Bank of England. The data release comes amid ongoing economic challenges, making it a key focus for understanding the current state of the UK economy.

GBP – Claimant Count Change​

The UK Office for National Statistics' Claimant Count Change measures the month-to-month change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits, serving as an early indicator of the labor market's health. This metric, released mid-month and covering the previous month, can impact GBP volatility. A rise in claimants is generally bearish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), signaling potential economic deterioration and looser monetary policy, while a drop is seen as bullish, reflecting improving economic conditions.

In September 2024, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the UK increased by 27,900, bringing the total to 1.797 million. This rise followed a revised increase of just 300 claims in the previous month and significantly surpassed market expectations of a 20,200 growth. The sharp jump highlights ongoing challenges in the UK labor market, with the increase well above what analysts had forecast.

The Claimant Count Change will be released on Tuesday at 7:00 AM GMT.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

12th November 2024

Tuesday

​

On November 12th, the United Kingdom is set to release a significant economic indicator: the Claimant Count Change. This metric, which measures the monthly change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits, provides valuable insight into the health of the UK labor market. Analysts and investors will be closely monitoring the announcement, as it can influence market expectations regarding employment trends and potential policy responses from the Bank of England. The data release comes amid ongoing economic challenges, making it a key focus for understanding the current state of the UK economy.

GBP – Claimant Count Change​

The UK Office for National Statistics' Claimant Count Change measures the month-to-month change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits, serving as an early indicator of the labor market's health. This metric, released mid-month and covering the previous month, can impact GBP volatility. A rise in claimants is generally bearish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), signaling potential economic deterioration and looser monetary policy, while a drop is seen as bullish, reflecting improving economic conditions.



In September 2024, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the UK increased by 27,900, bringing the total to 1.797 million. This rise followed a revised increase of just 300 claims in the previous month and significantly surpassed market expectations of a 20,200 growth. The sharp jump highlights ongoing challenges in the UK labor market, with the increase well above what analysts had forecast.



The Claimant Count Change will be released on Tuesday at 7:00 AM GMT.

Post automatically merged: Nov 13, 2024

13th November 2024
Wednesday ​

This Wednesday, significant economic data releases are anticipated from both Australia and the United States. Australia is set to publish its quarterly Wage Price Index, providing insights into wage growth and potential inflationary pressures within the labor market. Meanwhile, the United States will release its latest inflation figures, which are closely watched for indications of consumer price trends and potential impacts on monetary policy. These reports will be pivotal for investors and analysts monitoring economic conditions in both nations.

AUD - Wage Price Index q/q​

The Wage Price Index (q/q) measures the change in labor costs paid by businesses and the government, excluding bonuses. A higher-than-expected result is typically favorable for the currency, as it signals potential inflationary pressures. Traders monitor this index closely because rising labor costs often lead to higher consumer prices, making it a key indicator of future inflation trends.

The latest Australian Wage Price Index (WPI) for the June quarter of 2024 shows a 0.8% quarterly increase and a 4.1% annual rise, with the public sector seeing a stronger 0.9% quarterly growth compared to 0.7% in the private sector. Public sector wages grew 3.9% annually, contributing significantly to overall wage growth, partly due to recent pay increases for Australian Public Service employees. Industry-wise, Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, along with Public Administration and Safety, were key contributors to wage growth, while Retail Trade and Health Care recorded the lowest increases. Regionally, the Australian Capital Territory led in quarterly growth, and Tasmania saw the highest annual increase.

The Wage Price Index (q/q) will be released this Wednesday at 12:30 AM GMT.

USD - Core CPI m/m​

The Core Consumer Price Index year-over-year measure indicates how the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers change, excluding volatile items like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco. This data is released monthly, roughly 16 days after the end of the month. Generally, if the 'Actual' figure exceeds the 'Forecast,' it is considered positive for the currency. However, in this context, Core CPI data has a relatively minor impact compared to other countries because the central bank primarily focuses on the overall CPI for its inflation target.

Core consumer prices in the United States, excluding volatile categories like food and energy, rose by 0.3% in September 2024, a slight uptick from the 0.2% increase recorded in August. This exceeded market forecasts, which had anticipated another 0.2% rise. Notably, shelter costs continued their steady climb with a 0.4% increase, matching the previous month's rate. Meanwhile, transportation services saw a sharper acceleration, with prices jumping by 1.4%, up from 0.9% in August. On an annual basis, core inflation stood at 3.3% in September, reflecting ongoing price pressures in key sectors.

USD - CPI m/m​

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. Typically, if the 'actual' CPI exceeds the 'forecast,' it is considered beneficial for the currency. This is because consumer prices make up a significant portion of overall inflation. Inflation, in turn, plays a crucial role in currency valuation, as increasing prices often prompt the central bank to raise interest rates to control inflation. The CPI is derived by sampling the average prices of various goods and services and comparing them to the previous month's data.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, matching the increases seen in August and July. Over the past 12 months, the all-items index has increased by 2.4%. Key contributors to the monthly rise were the shelter and food indexes, which together made up over 75% of the increase. The food index climbed 0.4%, while energy prices fell by 1.9%, driven by a 4.1% drop in gasoline prices. Excluding food and energy, the CPI rose 0.3% in September, with notable increases in shelter, motor vehicle insurance, and medical care.

USD - CPI y/y​

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year (y/y) measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. When the actual CPI exceeds the forecast, it is typically positive for the currency. This is because consumer prices account for a significant portion of overall inflation, which is crucial for currency valuation. Rising prices often prompt the central bank to raise interest rates to contain inflation. The CPI is derived by sampling the average price of various goods and services and comparing it to the previous sampling.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 2.4% year-over-year for the 12 months ending in September 2024, the smallest annual increase since February 2021. This marks a slowdown from earlier months, as the CPI had risen by 3.7% in August and 3.2% in July. Shelter costs, which increased by 4.9% over the past year, were the primary driver of the increase, contributing over 65% of the total rise in the CPI excluding food and energy. The energy index declined 6.8% over the year, with gasoline prices falling 15.3% and fuel oil dropping 22.4%. In contrast, food prices rose 2.3%, with food at home increasing by 1.3% and food away from home by 3.9%.

The upcoming Core CPI (month-over-month), CPI (month-over-month), and CPI (year-over-year) reports are scheduled for release on Wednesday at 1:30 PM GMT.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

14th November 2024

Thursday

​

On November 14th, markets are set for a wave of high-impact economic announcements from the US. Key releases include the Core Producer Price Index (PPI) and PPI month-over-month readings, alongside the latest Unemployment Claims. These data points are expected to influence global markets, particularly in forex and commodities.​

USD - Core PPI m/m​

The Producer Price Index (PPI) excluding food and energy, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, gauges the average changes in prices at the wholesale level across various stages of production in the United States. By excluding the more volatile categories of food and energy, this measure aims to provide a clearer picture of price trends. Typically, a high PPI reading is considered favorable or bullish for the US dollar, while a low reading is viewed as detrimental or bearish.


In September, the Core Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand, excluding food, energy, and trade services, increased by 0.1% month-over-month, following a 0.2% rise in August. This modest increase in core PPI reflects a slower pace of price gains across various sectors. The broader index for final demand remained unchanged for the month, with a 0.2% increase in final demand services offset by a 0.2% decline in final demand goods, driven mainly by falling energy prices. Despite the mixed movements, core PPI continues to indicate a relatively stable pricing environment.​

TL;DR

• Core PPI Growth (Excluding Food, Energy, and Trade Services):
  • Increased by 0.1% month-over-month in September.
  • Slower pace compared to 0.2% growth in August.
• Broad PPI for Final Demand:
  • Remained unchanged in September.
• Final Demand Services:
  • Rose by 0.2%.
• Final Demand Goods:
  • Declined by 0.2%, primarily due to falling energy prices.
• Core PPI Trend:
  • Indicates a stable pricing environment across various sectors despite mixed movements in broader PPI components.

The forecast stands at 0.3% compared to previous 0.2% outcome.

USD - PPI m/m​

The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand, released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, tracks price changes from producers for goods and services in various sectors. It includes final demand goods, trade services, transportation, warehousing, and construction. Traders watch the PPI closely as it indicates future consumer inflation; higher readings are typically seen as positive for the USD, while lower readings are negative.


In September, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand remained unchanged month-over-month, following a 0.2% increase in August and no change in July. Within final demand, a 0.2% increase in services was offset by a 0.2% decrease in goods, largely driven by a 2.7% drop in energy prices. Core PPI, which excludes food, energy, and trade services, rose by 0.1%, slowing from a 0.2% rise in August. Prices for processed and unprocessed goods for intermediate demand also declined, while services for intermediate demand increased by 0.2%.​

TL;DR

• PPI for Final Demand (September):
  • Unchanged month-over-month.
  • Follows a 0.2% increase in August and no change in July.
• Final Demand Components:
  • Services: Increased by 0.2%.
  • Goods: Decreased by 0.2%, driven by a 2.7% drop in energy prices.
• Core PPI (Excluding Food, Energy, and Trade Services):
  • Increased by 0.1%, slowing from a 0.2% rise in August.
• Intermediate Demand:
  • Processed and Unprocessed Goods: Prices declined.
  • Services: Increased by 0.2%.

The forecast indicates 0.2% compared top previous 0.0% outcome.

USD - Unemployment Claims​

Initial Jobless Claims track the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in a week, serving as an early indicator of U.S. economic health. While the impact on the market can vary, a higher than expected number is usually seen as negative for the USD, and a lower than expected number as positive. Traders monitor these figures closely as they reflect labor market conditions, which are directly linked to consumer spending and are crucial for shaping monetary policy.


The United States Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims rose by 3,000 to 221,000 for the week ending November 2, reflecting a modest increase in weekly unemployment filings. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of initial claims, which smooths out weekly volatility, declined by 9,750 to 227,250, indicating a longer-term downward trend. The insured unemployment rate for the week ending October 26 remained unchanged at 1.2%, signaling stability in the proportion of unemployed workers receiving benefits. However, the number of individuals receiving unemployment insurance during that week rose by 39,000 to 1,892,000, reaching its highest level since November 2021. The four-week moving average of insured unemployment also climbed by 8,500 to 1,875,500, reflecting a gradual increase in benefit recipients over time.​

TL;DR

Metric	Value	Details

Initial Jobless Claims

221,000

Increased by 3,000 for the week ending November 2

4-Week Moving Average (Initial Claims)

227,250

Declined by 9,750, showing a longer-term downward trend

Insured Unemployment Rate

1.2%

Unchanged for the week ending October 26

Number Receiving Unemployment Insurance

1,892,000

Increased by 39,000, highest since November 2021

4-Week Moving Average (Insured Unemployment)

1,875,500

Increased by 8,500, indicating a gradual upward trend

The forecast indicates 224,000 compared to previous 221,000 outcome.



The upcoming Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims reports are scheduled for release on Thursday at 1:30 PM GMT.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

15th November 2024

Friday

​

This Friday, the UK will release its monthly GDP data, expected to have a major impact on the markets as investors gauge the health of consumer spending. Later in the day, attention will turn to the US, where both Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales figures for the month are due. These data releases are likely to influence market sentiment and trading activity as analysts and investors assess the economic outlook on both sides of the Atlantic.​

GBP - GDP m/m​

The GDP month-over-month (m/m) metric tracks the change in the total value of goods and services produced within an economy. When the 'Actual' GDP surpasses the 'Forecast,' it is typically seen as positive for the currency. This indicator is closely watched by traders as it provides the most comprehensive measure of economic activity and serves as a key indicator of the economy's overall health.


Sterling remained near a one-month low against the dollar on Friday, despite data showing that Britain's economy grew by 0.2% in August, according to the Office for National Statistics, matching economist expectations. This return to growth follows two months of stagnation and provides some relief ahead of the Labour government’s upcoming budget. However, the data did little to shift market sentiment, as the modest growth still points to an overall slowdown in the UK's economic performance in the second half of the year. Traders remain focused on next week’s inflation and labor market reports, which will be crucial for shaping expectations around the Bank of England's monetary policy decisions ahead of its November meeting.​

TL;DR

Aspect	Details

Currency Performance

Sterling remained near a one-month low against the dollar.

Economic Growth (August)

Britain's economy grew by 0.2%, matching economist expectations.

Previous Performance

Growth follows two months of stagnation.

Political Context

Provides relief ahead of the Labour government's upcoming budget.

Market Sentiment

Limited impact on sentiment as modest growth suggests an overall economic slowdown.

Upcoming Focus

Traders await next week’s inflation and labor market reports, key for Bank of England policy.

Bank of England

Reports will influence monetary policy decisions ahead of the November meeting.

The forecast is set at 0.2%, matching the previous result.

The upcoming GDP m/m report is scheduled for release on Friday at 7:00 AM GMT.

USD - Core Retail Sales m/m
​

The Core Retail Sales measure, which tracks changes in retail sales values excluding automobiles, is an important economic indicator. It is often seen as more dependable than the overall Retail Sales data because automobile sales, which account for around 20% of retail sales, can be quite volatile and may obscure underlying trends. When the actual Core Retail Sales figure surpasses the forecast, it is generally interpreted as a positive sign for the currency, indicating stronger consumer spending trends.


In September 2024, retail sales in the United States, excluding autos, increased by 0.5% on a month-over-month basis. This rise followed an upwardly revised 0.2% growth in August and surpassed market expectations of a modest 0.1% gain. The stronger-than-anticipated performance suggests continued consumer resilience, even amid higher interest rates and inflation pressures, which had led analysts to forecast a more subdued growth pace.

TL;DR​

Metric	September 2024	August 2024 (Revised)	Market Expectations
Retail Sales (Excluding Autos)	+0.5% (Month-over-Month)	+0.2% (Month-over-Month)	+0.1% (Month-over-Month)
Performance Indicator	Stronger-than-expected	Upward revision	Analysts expected subdued growth due to higher interest rates and inflation pressures

The forecast is at 0.3%, down from the previous outcome of 0.5%.

USD - Retail Sales m/m​

The monthly Retail Sales report tracks changes in the total value of retail sales and is crucial for assessing economic health. It reflects consumer spending, which is a major component of overall economic activity. An 'Actual' figure surpassing the 'Forecast' is typically viewed positively for the currency, as it indicates stronger consumer activity. Also known as Advance Retail Sales, this report is a key indicator for understanding economic trends and consumer behavior.


US retail and food services sales increased by 0.4% in September, reaching $714.4 billion, according to a preliminary report from the Census Bureau. This monthly rise exceeded analysts' expectations. Compared to September 2023, sales grew by 1.7%. Over the July to September period, total sales rose by 2.3% year-on-year. Monthly retail trade sales saw a 0.3% increase, while nonstore retailers surged 7.1% and food services and drinking places experienced a 3.7% annual rise.​

TL;DR

Metric	Value

September 2024 Total Sales

$714.4 billion

Monthly Sales Growth (September)

0.4%

Annual Sales Growth (September)

1.7%

Quarterly Sales Growth (July-September)

2.3% year-on-year

Monthly Retail Trade Sales Growth

0.3%

Annual Growth for Nonstore Retailers

7.1%

Annual Growth for Food Services and Drinking Places

3.7%

The forecast stands at 0.3% compared to previous 0.4% outcome.

The Core Retail Sales m/m and Retail Sales m/m reports are scheduled for release this Friday at 1:30 PM GMT.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

19th November 2024

Tuesday​

On Tuesday, Canada will release a comprehensive set of inflation data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on a month-over-month basis, as well as the Median CPI and Trimmed CPI on a year-over-year basis. These figures will offer crucial insights into the country's inflation trends, helping economists and policymakers gauge underlying price pressures. The data is expected to play a pivotal role in shaping the Bank of Canada's monetary policy decisions, with implications for interest rates and economic forecasts. Markets will be closely monitoring the release for any signs of deviation from expectations.

CAD - CPI m/m​

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the month-over-month change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. A higher-than-expected CPI is typically favorable for a currency, as it suggests rising consumer prices, which constitute a significant portion of overall inflation. Inflation is crucial to currency valuation because it often prompts the central bank to raise interest rates to manage inflation. The CPI is derived by sampling the average prices of various goods and services and comparing them to the previous period's prices.


In September 2024, Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a 0.4% decline compared to the previous month, following a 0.2% decrease in August. The drop in both monthly and yearly inflation was largely driven by falling gasoline prices. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI remained flat, showing no change from August. Historically, inflation in Canada has averaged 0.29% month-over-month since 1950, with the highest rate recorded at 2.6% in January 1991 and the lowest at -1.3% in June 1959.

TL;DR

• Monthly CPI Change: Canada’s CPI declined by 0.4% in September 2024, following a 0.2% drop in August 2024.
• Inflation Driver: The decline was largely due to falling gasoline prices.
• Seasonally Adjusted CPI: On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI showed no change from August 2024.
• Historical Context:
  • Average monthly inflation since 1950: 0.29%.
  • Highest recorded inflation: 2.6% in January 1991.
  • Lowest recorded inflation: -1.3% in June 1959.

The forecast predicts a 0.3% increase, contrasting with the previous -0.4% decline.

CAD - Median CPI y/y​

The Median CPI year-over-year measure tracks the annual change in the median price of consumer goods and services. An 'Actual' result that surpasses the 'Forecast' is generally favorable for the currency, as consumer prices play a crucial role in overall inflation. Rising inflation often leads central banks to raise interest rates to control it. This measure is calculated by comparing sampled average prices of goods and services to those from the previous period.

​

In September 2024, Canada’s median Consumer Price Index (CPI-median) remained steady at 2.3% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month, and marking its lowest level since April 2021, as reported by Statistics Canada. This figure aligns with market expectations and reflects a stabilization in core inflation. Similarly, CPI-trim, which excludes the most extreme price changes, held at 2.4%. These preferred measures of core inflation remained consistent despite typical seasonal easing in transportation prices, which contributed to a reduction in headline inflation. Historically, the median CPI in Canada has averaged 2.09% from 1990 to 2024, peaking at 5.00% in June 2022 and hitting a record low of 0.90% in November 1997.

TL;DR

Measure	Value (YoY)	Remarks

CPI-median

2.3%

Lowest since April 2021; unchanged from August 2024; aligns with market expectations.

CPI-trim

2.4%

Stable; reflects consistent core inflation measures.

Historical Average

2.09%

Average from 1990 to 2024.

Historical Peak

5.00%

Recorded in June 2022.

Historical Low

0.90%

Recorded in November 1997.

The forecast is 2.2%, slightly lower than the previous outcome of 2.3%.

CAD - Trimmed CPI y/y​

The Trimmed CPI y/y measures the annual change in consumer prices, excluding the most volatile 40% of items. A higher-than-forecasted value is typically positive for the currency, as consumer prices are a major component of inflation, which influences central bank decisions on interest rates. This measure is derived by comparing the average prices of goods and services to those from the previous period.


The trimmed-mean core inflation rate in Canada, the Bank of Canada's preferred measure for underlying inflation, remained at 2.4% year-over-year in September 2024. This is unchanged from the previous month and marks the lowest rate since April 2021, falling below forecasts of 2.5%.

TL;DR

• Trimmed-Mean Core Inflation (Canada): 2.4% YoY in September 2024.
• Unchanged: Same as the previous month.
• Lowest Since: April 2021.
• Forecast Miss: Below the expected 2.5%.

The forecast remains at 2.4%, unchanged from the previous result.

The upcoming inflation data for Canada is scheduled for release on Tuesday at 1:30 PM GMT.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

20th November 2024

Wednesday

​

The United Kingdom is gearing up for the release of its Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year data, a critical economic indicator that measures changes in the cost of goods and services over the past year. This release is closely watched by policymakers, investors, and economists as it provides insight into inflation trends and could influence future monetary policy decisions.​

GBP – CPI y/y​

The CPI year-over-year (y/y) measures the annual change in consumer prices for goods and services. When CPI exceeds forecasts, it typically strengthens the currency, as higher inflation may prompt central banks to raise interest rates. Traders closely monitor this data because inflation affects currency value and interest rates, shaping trading strategies and market expectations.


UK inflation dropped sharply to 1.7% in September, falling below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time since April 2021, according to the Office for National Statistics. The decline, steeper than the expected 1.9%, follows an August rate of 2.2%. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, also fell to 3.2%, down from 3.6% in August. This decrease in both headline and core inflation has heightened market expectations of a possible rate cut by the Bank of England in November. The British pound weakened against the U.S. dollar and the euro following the news, as service sector price rises also eased significantly.​

TL;DR

• UK inflation dropped to 1.7% in September, down from 2.2% in August, falling below the Bank of England's 2% target for the first time since April 2021.
• Core inflation (excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) decreased to 3.2% from 3.6% in August.
• The decline in both headline and core inflation was steeper than the expected rate of 1.9%.
• Market expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England in November have risen.
• The British pound weakened against the U.S. dollar and the euro following the inflation news.
• Service sector price increases eased significantly.

The forecast stands at 2.2% compared to previous 1.7% outcome.

The upcoming CPI y/y is set to be released on Wednesday at 7:00 AM GMT.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

21st November 2024

Thursday​

The United States is preparing to release its latest Unemployment Claims report this Thursday, a key economic indicator closely monitored by investors and policymakers. The data will offer insights into the current state of the labor market, shedding light on jobless trends and potential shifts in economic momentum.​

USD - Unemployment Claims​

Initial Jobless Claims track the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in a week, serving as an early indicator of U.S. economic health. While the impact on the market can vary, a higher than expected number is usually seen as negative for the USD, and a lower than expected number as positive. Traders monitor these figures closely as they reflect labor market conditions, which are directly linked to consumer spending and are crucial for shaping monetary policy.


The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits declined by 4,000 to 217,000 in the week ending November 9th, marking the lowest level since May and beating market expectations of 223,000. Continuing claims also fell by 19,000 to 1,873,000 in the final week of October, underscoring the resilience of the US labor market despite the Federal Reserve's recent tightening measures. The four-week moving average of initial claims, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, decreased by 6,250 to 221,000. However, non-seasonally adjusted claims rose by 16,735 to 229,478, driven by an increase in California (6,217) that offset a significant drop in Michigan (-4,067). These figures supported the notion that the labor market remained historically strong, offering the Fed flexibility in its approach to monetary policy should inflation persist.​

TL;DR

Metric	Value	Notes
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims	217,000 (-4,000 from previous week)	Lowest level since May 2024
Market Expectation of Claims	223,000	Claims beat market expectations
Continuing Claims	1,873,000 (-19,000 from previous week)	Reflects strong labor market
4-Week Moving Average (Initial Claims)	221,000 (-6,250 from previous week)	Smooths out weekly fluctuations
Non-Seasonally Adjusted Claims	229,478 (+16,735 from previous week)	Driven by increases in California
Increase in California Claims	+6,217	Offset overall claims increase
Decrease in Michigan Claims	-4,067	Contributed to overall decrease in claims

The forecast projects 220,000 initial jobless claims, slightly higher than the previous outcome of 217,000.

The next Unemployment Claims is set to be released on Thursday at 1:30 PM GMT.