News Announcement & Chart Analysis by PlexyTrade

[MiloPlexyTrade]

25th September 2024

Wednesday

​

Australia is set to release its year-over-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday. This key economic indicator will provide insights into the country's inflation rate, which has been a major concern for policymakers and consumers alike. Investors and analysts will be closely watching the CPI data to gauge the effectiveness of the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy measures.​

AUD - CPI y/y​

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Year-over-Year measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. When the actual CPI figure exceeds the forecasted value, it is generally advantageous for the currency. This is because consumer prices significantly impact overall inflation, which in turn affects currency valuation. Rising inflation typically prompts the central bank to raise interest rates to manage inflationary pressures. The CPI is calculated by sampling the average prices of a range of goods and services and comparing these to prices from a previous period.


In July 2024, Australia's annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth moderated to 3.5%, down from 3.8% in June and slightly above forecasts of 3.4%. This marks the lowest inflation rate since March, primarily influenced by substantial reductions in electricity costs due to the new Commonwealth and state energy rebates. Notably, the annual rise in housing prices slowed to 4.0%, with significant impacts from the reduced electricity prices. While food inflation saw an uptick to 3.8%, driven by sharp increases in fruit and vegetable prices, other sectors like transport showed a deceleration in cost increases. Excluding volatile items and holiday travel, the CPI rose by 3.7%, the smallest increase since January 2022, signaling a mild easing in underlying inflation pressures yet remaining above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target range of 2-3%.​

TL;DR

Category	Details

Overall CPI Growth (July 2024)

3.5% (down from 3.8% in June)

Forecasted CPI Growth

3.4%

Lowest Inflation Since

March 2024

Main Driver of Inflation Reduction

Substantial reductions in electricity costs

Electricity Cost Impact

Reduced due to Commonwealth and state energy rebates

Annual Housing Price Increase

4.0% (impacted by reduced electricity costs)

Food Inflation

3.8% (driven by increases in fruit and vegetable prices)

Transport Cost Growth

Decelerated

Underlying CPI (Excluding Volatile Items)

3.7% (smallest increase since January 2022)

RBA Target CPI Range

2-3%

The forecast for Australia’s CPI y/y stands at 2.7% compared to previous 3.5% outcome.

The next CPI year-over-year (y/y) data will be released on Wednesday at 1:30 AM GMT.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

26th September 2024

Thursday

​

A significant economic data release day is on the horizon. On Thursday, both Switzerland and the United States will unveil crucial figures. Switzerland's National Bank will announce its policy interest rate, which could have a major impact on the country's financial markets. Meanwhile, the United States will release its final GDP growth rate for the previous quarter and the latest unemployment claims data. These figures will provide valuable insights into the health of both economies and are likely to influence investor sentiment and market movements.​

CHF – SNB Policy Rate​

Traders closely watch the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) policy rate, as short-term interest rates are crucial for currency valuation. If the actual rate is higher than forecasted, it's positive for the currency. The SNB Governing Board sets the policy rate based on consensus, which is why traders focus on it to predict future rate changes.


The Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced on June 20, 2024, a reduction in its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing it down to 1.25%, effective June 21. This move is aimed at maintaining appropriate monetary conditions amidst decreasing inflationary pressure. The SNB will also remunerate banks’ sight deposits at this new rate up to a certain threshold, with excess deposits earning 0.75% more. The decision follows a slight rise in inflation to 1.4% in May, driven by higher rents, tourism services, and oil prices, although overall inflation remains within the stability range. The SNB forecasts average annual inflation at 1.3% for 2024, 1.1% for 2025, and 1.0% for 2026, assuming the policy rate stays at 1.25%. Despite solid global economic growth in early 2024, inflation remains above targets in many countries, prompting some central banks to ease monetary policies while maintaining restrictive stances. The SNB expects moderate Swiss GDP growth of around 1% in 2024, rising to 1.5% in 2025, with slight increases in unemployment and normal production capacity utilization. However, significant global economic risks persist, including prolonged inflation and geopolitical tensions, which could impact economic activity. The real estate market shows weaker momentum, yet vulnerabilities remain.​

TL;DR

Category	Details
SNB Policy Rate	Reduced by 0.25 percentage points to 1.25%, effective June 21, 2024.
Purpose	Maintain appropriate monetary conditions amidst decreasing inflationary pressure.
Remuneration on Deposits	Banks’ sight deposits remunerated at 1.25% (up to a threshold), excess deposits earn 0.75% more.
Inflation (May 2024)	Increased to 1.4%, driven by higher rents, tourism services, and oil prices.
Inflation Forecasts	2024: 1.3%, 2025: 1.1%, 2026: 1.0%. Assumes policy rate remains at 1.25%.
Global Economic Growth	Solid in early 2024, but inflation remains above targets in many countries.
Swiss GDP Growth Forecast	2024: ~1%, 2025: 1.5%.
Unemployment	Expected slight increases.
Production Capacity	Normal utilization expected.
Global Economic Risks	Prolonged inflation and geopolitical tensions could impact global economic activity.
Real Estate Market	Weaker momentum, but vulnerabilities remain.

The SNB Policy Rate forecast is projected at 1.00%, down from the previous rate of 1.25%.

The upcoming Interest Rate decision is set to be released on Thursday at 7:30 AM GMT.

CHF - SNB Press Conference​

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) press conference, led by the SNB Chairman and Governing Board members, is held quarterly and is a key communication tool for conveying monetary policy and economic outlook. A more hawkish stance than expected is generally positive for the currency, making the conference a critical event for traders assessing future policy direction.

The SNB Press Conference is scheduled to start on Thursday at 8:00 AM GMT.

USD - Final GDP q/q​

The Final GDP q/q measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. Traders monitor this indicator closely as it is the broadest measure of economic activity and serves as the primary gauge of the economy's health.


In the second quarter of 2024, the U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.0%, a rise from the previously estimated 2.8% and a notable increase from the 1.4% recorded in the first quarter. The revision up was largely attributed to stronger consumer spending, which was adjusted to 2.9% from 2.3%. Other factors contributing to growth included private inventory investment, which surged to 7.5% from 4.4%, and nonresidential fixed investment, which increased to 4.6% from 4.4%. Despite these gains, the revised figures also showed downward adjustments: nonresidential fixed investment was lowered to 4.6% from 5.2%, exports decreased to 1.6% from 2%, and private inventory investment was revised down to 7.5% from 8.4%. Government spending at both federal and local levels also saw reductions, while residential fixed investment was adjusted to -2% from -1.4%. Imports were increased to 7% from 6.9%, impacting the overall GDP revision.​

TL;DR

• Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.0% (up from the previous estimate of 2.8%, and a rise from 1.4% in Q1).
• Consumer spending was revised up to 2.9% (from 2.3%).
• Private inventory investment surged to 7.5% (from 4.4%).
• Nonresidential fixed investment revised down slightly to 4.6% (from 5.2%).
• Exports decreased to 1.6% (from 2.0%).
• Government spending saw reductions at both federal and local levels.
• Residential fixed investment was adjusted to -2.0% (from -1.4%).
• Imports increased to 7.0% (from 6.9%), slightly impacting the overall GDP revision.

The projected quarter-on-quarter GDP growth remains at 3.0%, matching the previous result.

USD - Unemployment Claims​

Initial Jobless Claims track the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in a week, serving as an early indicator of U.S. economic health. While the impact on the market can vary, a higher than expected number is usually seen as negative for the USD, and a lower than expected number as positive. Traders monitor these figures closely as they reflect labor market conditions, which are directly linked to consumer spending and are crucial for shaping monetary policy.


United States initial jobless claims for the week ending September 14 fell by 12,000 to 219,000, according to a report from the Department of Labor. This figure came in lower than analysts' predictions. The 4-week moving average also decreased by 3,500 to 227,500. The insured unemployment rate stood at 1.2% for the week ending September 7, with insured unemployment dropping by 14,000 to 1,829,000. The 4-week moving average of insured unemployment also declined by 6,500, reaching 1,844,250.​

TL;DR

Metric	Value

Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending Sept 14)

219,000 (down 12,000)

Analysts' Predictions

Higher than 219,000

4-Week Moving Average (Initial Claims)

227,500 (down 3,500)

Insured Unemployment Rate (Week Ending Sept 7)

1.2%

Insured Unemployment (Week Ending Sept 7)

1,829,000 (down 14,000)

4-Week Moving Average (Insured Unemployment)

1,844,250 (down 6,500)

The forecast for Unemployment Claims is projected at 224,000, up from the previous figure of 219,000.

The upcoming Final GDP q/q & Unemployment Claims is scheduled for release on Thursday at 12:30 PM GMT.

USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks​

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver pre-recorded opening remarks at the U.S. Treasury Market Conference in New York. As the head of the central bank, Powell holds significant influence over short-term interest rates and the nation's currency value, making his speeches closely watched by traders and financial markets. Market participants will scrutinize his remarks for subtle hints about future monetary policy direction. Should Powell adopt a more hawkish tone than expected, it could boost the U.S. dollar, as traders often interpret such signals as an indication of potential tightening in monetary policy.

The speech is scheduled for Thursday at 1:20 PM GMT.

​

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

27th September 2024

Friday

​

Canada and the United States are preparing to release key economic data that could influence market sentiment. Canada will publish its monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, providing insight into the country's economic growth. Meanwhile, the U.S. will unveil its Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for the month, a closely watched inflation indicator. Both releases are expected to offer valuable information on the economic conditions in their respective countries.​

CAD - GDP m/m​

The GDP month-over-month (m/m) measures reflect the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. An 'Actual' value that exceeds the 'Forecast' is generally seen as favorable for the currency. Traders pay close attention to this indicator because it is the broadest measure of economic activity and serves as the primary gauge of the overall health of the economy.


Canada's GDP is expected to remain unchanged in July 2024, as gains in the finance, insurance, and retail trade sectors were counterbalanced by declines in construction, mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction, and wholesale trade. In June 2024, the economy also remained essentially flat, falling short of preliminary estimates and market expectations of a 0.1% growth. Goods-producing industries contracted by 0.4%, driven by notable declines in manufacturing and construction, though this was partially offset by gains in utilities and agriculture. Manufacturing saw its steepest decline since December 2023, with durable goods manufacturing dropping 2.4% due to retooling in the auto sector. The construction sector shrank for the third consecutive month, hitting its lowest point since January 2021, while utilities saw a 2.3% rise, spurred by increased electricity and natural gas distribution. Meanwhile, services-producing industries recorded a modest 0.1% growth, marking their third consecutive month of expansion, supported by real estate, finance, and the public sector.​

TL;DR

• July 2024 GDP Growth
  • Expected to remain unchanged.
  • Gains in finance, insurance, and retail trade sectors.
  • Declines in construction, mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction, and wholesale trade.
• June 2024 GDP Growth
  • Essentially flat; fell short of preliminary estimates (0.1% growth).
• Goods-Producing Industries
  • Contracted by 0.4%.
  • Notable declines in manufacturing and construction.
  • Gains in utilities and agriculture partially offset losses.
• Manufacturing Sector
  • Experienced steepest decline since December 2023.
  • Durable goods manufacturing dropped by 2.4% due to retooling in the auto sector.
• Construction Sector
  • Shrinkage for the third consecutive month.
  • Hit lowest point since January 2021.
• Utilities Sector
  • Increased by 2.3%, spurred by higher electricity and natural gas distribution.
• Services-Producing Industries
  • Recorded modest 0.1% growth; third consecutive month of expansion.
  • Supported by real estate, finance, and the public sector.

The forecast for Canada's month-over-month GDP growth is 0.1%, an improvement from the previous result of 0.0%.

The upcoming month-over-month GDP data will be released on Friday at 12:30 PM GMT.

USD - Core PCE Price Index m/m​

The Core PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy, is the Federal Reserve's main measure of inflation. An increase above forecasts typically strengthens the currency as it prompts the Fed to raise interest rates to control inflation, affecting economic and currency stability. This index is crucial for traders monitoring potential shifts in monetary policy.


In July 2024, the U.S. Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure for tracking underlying inflation, rose by 0.2% from the previous month, aligning with market expectations and consistent with the increase observed in June. On a year-over-year basis, core PCE climbed by 2.6%, slightly below the forecasted 2.7%, reflecting a continued moderation in inflationary pressures. This trend reinforced the possibility of forthcoming rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which had been closely monitoring these figures along with other economic indicators ahead of its meeting scheduled for September 17th and 18th.​

TL;DR

• Core PCE Price Index (July 2024):
  • Increased by 0.2% from the previous month.
  • Growth aligned with market expectations.
• Year-over-Year Change:
  • Core PCE rose by 2.6%.
  • Slightly below the forecasted 2.7%.
• Inflationary Pressures:
  • Continued moderation observed in inflation.
• Federal Reserve Implications:
  • Potential for forthcoming rate cuts.
  • Fed closely monitoring economic indicators.
• Upcoming Meeting:
  • Scheduled for September 17th and 18th, 2024.

The forecast for Core PCE Price Index m/m stands at 0.2% the same as previous outcome.

The upcoming month-over-month Core PCE Price Index data will be released on Friday at 12:30 PM GMT.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

30th September 2024

Monday

​

On September 30, China is set to release its latest Manufacturing PMI, a key indicator of the country's industrial performance. This data will be followed by the release of Germany's preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, measuring inflation on a month-over-month basis. Later in the day, global markets will turn their attention to the United States, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak, with his remarks expected to provide insights into the Fed's stance on monetary policy amid ongoing economic uncertainties.​

CNY – Manufacturing PMI​

The Manufacturing PMI, based on surveys of 3,000 purchasing managers, measures industry conditions such as employment, production, and new orders. An 'Actual' figure higher than the 'Forecast' benefits the currency, with values above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction. This measure significantly impacts currency markets, especially if released before the Caixin Manufacturing PMI, due to China's global economic influence. Traders use this index as a leading economic indicator since purchasing managers have the most current insights into business conditions.


China's manufacturing sector recorded a decline for the fourth consecutive month in August, with the official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) falling to 49.1 from 49.4 in July, signaling a persistent contraction in factory activity. This downturn reflects broader economic challenges in the $17 trillion economy, which has been hampered by a prolonged property slump and weak consumer and business spending. Despite efforts by the government, including interest rate cuts, to revitalize economic sentiment, analysts from major financial institutions like UBS and JPMorgan Chase anticipate that China will likely miss its target of approximately 5% GDP growth for the year. Trade tensions, particularly with the US and the European Union, have exacerbated the situation, with new tariffs impacting sectors like the automotive industry. The combination of domestic economic struggles and increasing global trade barriers underscores the need for more aggressive fiscal policies to stabilize China's economic trajectory.​

TL;DR

Category	Details
China's Manufacturing PMI	Declined to 49.1 in August from 49.4 in July, indicating a contraction for the fourth consecutive month.
Economic Challenges	Impacted by a prolonged property slump, weak consumer and business spending.
Government Efforts	Measures include interest rate cuts to stimulate economic growth.
Analyst Projections	UBS and JPMorgan Chase predict China will miss its target of ~5% GDP growth for the year.
Trade Tensions	Ongoing tensions with the US and EU, with new tariffs affecting sectors such as the automotive industry.
Global & Domestic Impact	The combination of domestic economic issues and global trade barriers highlights the need for more aggressive fiscal policies to stabilize the economy.

The forecast for the Manufacturing PMI is 49.5, up from the previous figure of 49.1.

China is set to release its Manufacturing PMI on September 30th at 1:30 AM GMT.

EUR - German Prelim CPI m/m​

The German Preliminary CPI m/m, issued monthly by Destatis, tracks the change in consumer prices for household goods and services. This measure is crucial for assessing inflation and shifts in consumer spending. A rise in the CPI suggests increasing prices, which can prompt the central bank to hike interest rates to control inflation. Such increases are generally seen as positive for the Euro, as they indicate economic stability and growth, with a higher CPI being bullish for the currency and a lower one being bearish.


In August 2024, Germany's annual inflation rate dropped to 1.9%, marking its lowest level since March 2021 and falling below the anticipated 2.1%. This decline from July's rate of 2.3% was highlighted in preliminary estimates. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a slight reduction of 0.1% from the previous month, defying expectations of a 0.0% rise. The EU-harmonised CPI also decreased to 2.0% year-on-year, falling short of the forecasted 2.3%, and dipped by 0.2% on a monthly basis. Historically, Germany's monthly inflation rate has averaged 0.21%, with significant fluctuations over the years.​

TL;DR

• Germany's annual inflation rate dropped to 1.9% in August 2024, the lowest since March 2021.
• The inflation rate was lower than the anticipated 2.1%.
• The rate fell from 2.3% in July 2024.
• Preliminary estimates showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.1% from the previous month, while a 0.0% rise was expected.
• The EU-harmonised CPI decreased to 2.0% year-on-year, below the forecast of 2.3%.
• The EU-harmonised CPI also dropped by 0.2% on a monthly basis.
• Historically, Germany's monthly inflation rate has averaged 0.21% with fluctuations.

The projected CPI month-over-month is -0.1%, matching the previous result.

The upcoming CPI m/m will be released on Monday at 12:00 PM GMT.

USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks​

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to participate in a moderated discussion titled "A View from the Federal Reserve Board" at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting in Nashville. As the head of the central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, Powell has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other individual. Traders closely follow his public engagements, as they often provide subtle clues about future monetary policy. A more hawkish tone than expected in his remarks is generally positive for the currency.​

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech is scheduled for Monday at 5:00 PM GMT.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

1st October

Tuesday​

This coming Tuesday, the Eurozone will release its Core CPI flash estimate (y/y) and CPI flash estimate (y/y). Later, key data from the U.S. will follow, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job openings figures, both of which are expected to have a significant market impact. ​

EUR - Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y​

The Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y tracks changes in the prices of goods and services, excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco. If the actual data exceeds forecasts, it is typically favorable for the currency. Traders closely monitor this measure because it reflects underlying inflation trends. Rising consumer prices can lead central banks to raise interest rates to combat inflation, which in turn can impact currency valuation.


Euro zone inflation, measured by the CPI Flash Estimate, dropped to 2.2% in August, its lowest in three years, down from 2.6% in July. This decline, driven by lower energy costs, aligns with expectations and moves inflation closer to the ECB's 2% target after years of exceeding it. Despite this, core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, only slightly eased to 2.8%, with services inflation rising to 4.2%. The impact of the Paris Olympics on services costs, particularly in France, contributed to this increase. The 2.2% outcome strengthens the case for a widely expected ECB interest rate cut in September, although concerns over wage growth, especially in the services sector, remain a key issue for policymakers.​

The forecast for Core CPI Flash Estimate stands at 2.7% compared to previous 2.8% outcome.

EUR - CPI Flash Estimate y/y​

The CPI Flash Estimate (y/y) measures the annual change in consumer prices for goods and services. If the actual CPI figure exceeds forecasts, it is typically seen as favorable for the currency. Traders focus on this indicator because rising consumer prices can lead to higher inflation, which often prompts central banks to raise interest rates to manage inflation. Consequently, higher interest rates can strengthen the currency, making this data crucial for currency valuation.


Euro zone core inflation, measured by the Core CPI Flash Estimate, eased slightly to 2.8% in August from 2.9% in July, aligning with expectations. While this drop reflects muted imported goods prices, services inflation surged to 4.2%, partly due to the temporary impact of the Paris Olympics on French services costs. This rise in services inflation underscores ongoing concerns among European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers about rapid wage growth in the sector, despite overall inflation slowing to 2.2%. The persistent strength in core inflation, particularly in services, supports the case for an anticipated ECB interest rate cut in September, although further easing may depend on how wage pressures evolve.​

The projected CPI Flash Estimate year-over-year stands at 1.9%, down from the previous result of 2.2%.

The upcoming Core CPI Flash Estimate year-over-year and CPI Flash Estimate year-over-year will be released on Tuesday at 9:00 AM GMT.

USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI​

The ISM Manufacturing PMI, also known as the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business, is a diffusion index based on a survey of approximately 300 purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, and it measures the level of business conditions such as employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; a reading above 50.0 indicates industry expansion and is favorable for currency if it surpasses forecasts, as it serves as a leading indicator of economic health due to the purchasing managers' up-to-date insights into their company's view of the economy.


In August 2024, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the fifth consecutive month, with the Manufacturing PMI slightly rising to 47.2 percent, according to the ISM Report On Business. New orders and production continued to decline, with the New Orders Index falling to 44.6 percent, its lowest in several months. Supplier deliveries slowed, and inventories increased, indicating ongoing challenges in the supply chain. Despite the overall contraction, some sectors such as Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products, and Computer & Electronic Products reported growth. Economic concerns, influenced by federal monetary policy and election uncertainty, continued to restrain new investments in capital and inventory. Additionally, prices for raw materials rose, contributing to ongoing inflation pressures in the sector.​

TL;DR

Category	Details
Manufacturing PMI	47.2% (Contraction for the fifth consecutive month)
New Orders Index	44.6% (Declining, lowest in several months)
Production	Continued decline
Supplier Deliveries	Slowed
Inventories	Increased
Sectors with Growth	Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products
Economic Concerns	Federal monetary policy, election uncertainty affecting investment
Raw Material Prices	Increased, contributing to inflation pressures

The forecast for the upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI stands at 48.3, indicating a potential improvement compared to the previous reading of 47.2.

USD - JOLTS Job Openings​

The JOLTS Job Openings report measures the number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry; an 'Actual' figure greater than the 'Forecast' is positive for the currency because job creation is a crucial leading indicator of consumer spending, which constitutes a significant portion of overall economic activity.


In July, the U.S. job market remained robust with 7.7 million job openings and 5.5 million hires, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While the figures were largely unchanged from the previous month, they reflect a slight annual decline in job openings. Total separations rose to 5.4 million, an increase driven notably by the health care sector. The quit rate stayed constant at 3.3 million, suggesting steady employee confidence in job mobility. Layoffs and discharges were also consistent with previous reports. Noteworthy fluctuations included a drop in openings within transportation and gains in professional services and federal jobs. Additionally, revisions for June saw job openings decrease to 7.9 million, hires to 5.2 million, and quits reduced to 3.2 million, indicating slight recalibrations in the labor market's recovery trajectory.​

TL;DR

· U.S. job market in July remained strong with 7.7 million job openings and 5.5 million hires.

· Job openings showed a slight annual decline, despite being stable month-over-month.

· Total separations rose to 5.4 million, driven by increases in the health care sector.

· The quit rate remained constant at 3.3 million, indicating steady worker confidence in job mobility.

· Layoffs and discharges were consistent with previous months.

· Notable fluctuations:

• Decline in job openings in transportation.
• Increase in professional services and federal jobs.

· Revisions for June:

• Job openings adjusted down to 7.9 million.
• Hires revised to 5.2 million.
• Quits reduced to 3.2 million, showing minor recalibrations in labor market recovery.

The JOLTS Job Openings forecast is 7.65 million, slightly down from the previous figure of 7.673 million.

The ISM Manufacturing report and JOLTS Job Openings data are scheduled for release on Tuesday at 2:00 PM GMT.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

2nd October 2024

Wednesday​

On October 2nd, the U.S. will release its ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report, a key indicator of private sector employment growth. This report, which tracks changes in the number of employed people in the U.S. private sector, excluding farms, is highly anticipated by market analysts and investors. The data is expected to influence financial markets, as it provides insights into the state of the labor market and broader economic health. Any significant deviation from expectations could lead to volatility in stocks, bonds, and currency markets, as traders adjust their strategies in response to the employment data.​

USD - ADP - Non - Farm Employment Change​

The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change estimates the monthly change in employment numbers, excluding the agriculture sector and government employees. Generally, if the actual data surpasses the forecast, it positively influences the currency. This metric is closely watched by traders because job creation serves as a vital indicator of consumer spending, which significantly drives overall economic activity. The data is derived by analyzing payroll information from over 25 million workers to estimate employment growth.​

In August, U.S. private payrolls rose by just 99,000, the slowest gain since January 2021 and well below the expected 144,000, according to ADP's latest report. This marks a sharp deceleration from July's downwardly revised 111,000 increase and highlights a broader trend of weakening hiring momentum. The labor market, which had surged in the aftermath of the pandemic, is now showing signs of fatigue, with sectors like professional and business services, manufacturing, and information services shedding jobs. In contrast, education and health services, construction, and financial activities posted modest employment gains. Smaller companies (fewer than 50 workers) lost 9,000 jobs, while midsize firms added 68,000. Wage growth slowed slightly, with annual pay rising 4.8%, maintaining the same level as July. The data reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve may respond by cutting interest rates at its upcoming September meeting, as the labor market slowdown could increase downside risks to the broader economy.​

TL;DR

Category	Details
August Private Payrolls	99,000 (slowest gain since January 2021)
Expected Payrolls	144,000
July Payrolls	111,000 (downwardly revised)
Sector Performance	- Job Losses: Professional & business services, manufacturing, information services - Job Gains: Education & health services, construction, financial activities
Company Size Performance	- Small companies (<50 workers): -9,000 jobs - Midsize firms: +68,000 jobs
Wage Growth	4.8% annual increase (same as July)
Federal Reserve Implications	Potential interest rate cut due to labor market slowdown
Broader Trend	Weakening hiring momentum since post-pandemic surge​

The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change forecast is set at 124,000, up from the previous figure of 99,000.

The upcoming ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is set to be released on Wednesday at 12:15 PM GMT.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

3rd October 2024

Thursday

​

This Thursday, market watchers will be focused on key economic data releases, starting with Switzerland's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month, which will provide insight into inflationary trends within the Swiss economy. Following that, the United States will release its weekly Unemployment Claims report, shedding light on the state of the labor market. In addition, the ISM Services PMI, a critical measure of the health of the U.S. service sector, will be published, offering further insights into the broader economic outlook. These reports are expected to have a significant impact on market sentiment and economic forecasts.​

CHF - CPI m/m​

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, with its monthly release occurring approximately three days after the end of the month. This indicator is crucial for currency valuation, as a CPI reading that exceeds forecasts typically signals favorable conditions for the currency. Consumer prices are a significant component of overall inflation, which in turn influences central bank policies; rising inflation often prompts the central bank to increase interest rates to maintain price stability. CPI is derived by sampling and comparing the average prices of a variety of goods and services from one period to the next.


In August 2024, the consumer price index (CPI) in Switzerland remained unchanged from the previous month, holding steady at 107.5 points, the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) reported. This stagnation was due to a balance between rising costs for housing rentals and clothing and footwear and falling prices in sectors such as private transport hire, air transport, heating oil, international package holidays, and hotel accommodations. Year-on-year, inflation registered a modest increase of 1.1%. This performance deviated from market expectations, which had anticipated a slight rise of 0.1%, especially following a 0.2% decline in July. Historical data show that since 1950, Switzerland's monthly inflation rate has averaged 0.18%, reaching a peak of 2.10% in November 1973 and a low of -1% in July 2004.​

TL;DR

· August 2024 CPI: Held steady at 107.5 points (unchanged from July).

· Contributing factors:

• Rising costs: Housing rentals, clothing, and footwear.
• Falling prices: Private transport hire, air transport, heating oil, international package holidays, and hotel accommodations.

· Year-on-year inflation: Increased by 1.1%.

· Market expectations: A slight rise of 0.1% was expected, but inflation remained unchanged.

· July 2024 CPI: Decreased by 0.2%.

· Historical average inflation rate: 0.18% monthly since 1950.

· Historical peak inflation: 2.10% in November 1973.

· Historical low inflation: -1% in July 2004.


The forecast for CPI m/m stands at -0.1% compared to previous 0.0% outcome.

Switzerland will be releasing its monthly inflation figures on Thursday at 6:30 AM GMT.

USD - Unemployment Claims​

Initial Jobless Claims track the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in a week, serving as an early indicator of U.S. economic health. While the impact on the market can vary, a higher than expected number is usually seen as negative for the USD, and a lower than expected number as positive. Traders monitor these figures closely as they reflect labor market conditions, which are directly linked to consumer spending and are crucial for shaping monetary policy.


The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell by 4,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 218,000, according to the Labor Department's report for the week ending September 21. Economists had predicted 224,000 claims, but the actual drop signaled continued low layoffs despite a slowdown in the labor market due to declining job openings and a reduction in hiring. Initial claims had largely stabilized after reaching a high of 250,000 in July, although Boeing’s machinists' strike was expected to disrupt employment in the weeks that followed, leading to temporary furloughs across the aerospace giant’s supply chain. Striking workers were ineligible for benefits, but the broader impact on employment remained uncertain. Continuing claims, which served as a proxy for hiring, had risen by 13,000 to 1.834 million for the week ending September 14, though they remained below the 2-1/2-year highs seen in July, which were inflated by temporary policy changes in Minnesota. Despite an increase in the unemployment rate from 3.4% in April to 4.2% in August, the Federal Reserve responded by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points, aiming to maintain labor market stability.​

TL;DR

Category	Details
New Unemployment Claims	Fell by 4,000 to 218,000 (week ending Sept 21)
Economists' Prediction	224,000 claims
Layoffs Trend	Continued low layoffs despite labor market slowdown
July Claims Peak	250,000 claims
Boeing Machinists' Strike Impact	Expected to disrupt employment, with temporary furloughs; striking workers ineligible for benefits
Continuing Claims	Rose by 13,000 to 1.834 million (week ending Sept 14)
July Continuing Claims Peak	2-1/2-year highs due to Minnesota’s temporary policy changes
Unemployment Rate	Rose from 3.4% (April) to 4.2% (August)
Federal Reserve Response	Cut interest rates by 50 basis points to maintain labor market stability​

The forecast for Unemployment Claims stands at 221,000, up from the previous figure of 218,000.

The upcoming Unemployment Claims will be released on Thursday at 12:30 PM GMT.

USD - ISM Services PMI​

The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business is a monthly index based on surveys from approximately 300 purchasing and supply executives nationwide. It tracks changes in indicators such as Business Activity, New Orders, and Employment, with readings above 50% signaling expansion and below 50% indicating contraction. Given that service orders account for about 90% of the US economy, the report provides crucial insights into economic health and business sentiment, making it a key leading indicator for traders.


In August 2024, the ISM Services PMI recorded a slight increase to 51.5, marking a continuation of growth in the U.S. services sector and indicating expansion for the sixth time within the year. This increment, albeit modest by 0.1 % point from July’s figure of 51.4, underscores ongoing economic resilience across service industries. Key components of the PMI reflected varied performance: the Business Activity Index showed a decrease yet sustained expansion at 53.3 %, while the New Orders Index rose to 53 %, suggesting a solid demand backdrop. Employment growth slightly decelerated as evidenced by a drop in the Employment Index to 50.2 %, although it still pointed to an expanding job market. Contrarily, the Supplier Deliveries Index at 49.6 %t indicated faster deliveries, continuing in contraction. Additionally, the Prices Index ticked up to 57.3 %, and the Inventories Index returned to expansion at 52.9 %, reflecting adjustments in stock levels to align with current business needs. Collectively, these indices portray a services sector that is managing to navigate through economic uncertainties, balancing operational demands with cost and supply chain dynamics.​

TL;DR

· Services PMI: Increased to 51.5 in August from 51.4 in July, marking continued growth in the U.S. services sector for the sixth time this year.

· Business Activity Index: Decreased but remains in expansion at 53.3%.

· New Orders Index: Rose to 53.0%, indicating solid demand.

· Employment Index: Dropped to 50.2%, reflecting slower but still expanding employment growth.

· Supplier Deliveries Index: Fell to 49.6%, indicating faster deliveries and ongoing contraction.

· Prices Index: Increased to 57.3%, reflecting rising prices.

· Inventories Index: Returned to expansion at 52.9%, with adjustments in stock levels to meet business demands.​

The ISM Services PMI forecast is 51.6, slightly lower than the previous result of 51.6.

The upcoming ISM Services PMI is set to be released on Thursday at 2:00 PM GMT.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

4th October 2024

Friday

​

On October 4th, the United States is set to release several key economic indicators that are closely watched by markets and policymakers. The data will include the Average Hourly Earnings month-over-month (m/m), Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate. These figures are critical in assessing the health of the U.S. labor market, with potential implications for monetary policy decisions, inflation, and overall economic growth. Investors and analysts will be paying close attention to these reports as they provide insight into wage growth, job creation, and the broader economic outlook.​

USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m​

The Average Hourly Earnings m/m indicator measures the change in wages that businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming sector. If the 'Actual' figure exceeds the 'Forecast,' it generally benefits the currency. Traders pay close attention to this indicator because it acts as a leading indicator of consumer inflation; when businesses face higher labor costs, these increased expenses are often passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.


In August, average hourly earnings for all private nonfarm employees increased by 14 cents, or 0.4 percent, reaching $35.21, reflecting a 3.8 percent rise over the past year. Private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees saw a similar 0.4 percent increase, with earnings reaching $30.27. The average workweek for all private nonfarm employees edged up to 34.3 hours, while manufacturing overtime increased slightly. These wage and workweek gains came amid slower job growth and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2 percent.​

TL;DR

Metric	Value
Average Hourly Earnings (All Private Nonfarm Employees)	$35.21
Monthly Increase in Hourly Earnings	+$0.14 (0.4%)
Year-over-Year Increase in Hourly Earnings	+3.8%
Average Hourly Earnings (Private-Sector Production & Nonsupervisory Employees)	$30.27
Monthly Increase for Production & Nonsupervisory Employees	+0.4%
Average Workweek (All Private Nonfarm Employees)	34.3 hours
Manufacturing Overtime	Slight increase
Unemployment Rate	4.2% (unchanged)
Job Growth	Slower

The forecast for month-over-month Average Hourly Earnings is 0.1%, compared to the previous outcome of 0.4%.

USD - Non-Farm Employment Change​

The Non-Farm Employment Change measures the change in the number of employed individuals in the economy during the previous month, excluding those in the farming sector. This indicator is crucial for currency traders because a higher-than-expected 'actual' figure compared to the 'forecast' typically signals a positive economic outlook, leading to currency appreciation. Job creation is a key leading indicator of consumer spending, which drives a significant portion of overall economic activity. Thus, strong employment figures often suggest a robust economy and can influence currency values accordingly.


In August, nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000, marking slower growth compared to the 12-month average of 202,000. Significant job gains were seen in construction (+34,000) and health care (+31,000), particularly in ambulatory health care services and hospitals. Social assistance also added 13,000 jobs, though at a slower rate. However, manufacturing employment fell by 24,000, largely due to declines in durable goods industries. Employment in other major sectors, including mining, retail, and transportation, showed little change. Additionally, job growth for June and July was revised down by a combined 86,000, reflecting weaker-than-previously-reported performance.​

TL;DR

• Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, lower than the 12-month average of 202,000.
• Construction added 34,000 jobs.
• Health care saw gains of 31,000 jobs, particularly in ambulatory health care services and hospitals.
• Social assistance added 13,000 jobs, but at a slower rate.
• Manufacturing employment fell by 24,000, mainly due to declines in durable goods industries.
• Employment in mining, retail, and transportation showed little change.
• Job growth for June and July was revised down by a combined 86,000, indicating weaker-than-previously-reported performance.

The forecast for Non-Farm Employment Changes is 130,000, compared to the previous figure of 142,000.

USD - Unemployment Rate​

The unemployment rate represents the proportion of the labor force that is without a job but actively looking for work over the past month. When the reported figure comes in below expectations, it typically boosts the currency's value. Although it’s considered a lagging indicator, traders monitor it closely as it provides insights into the economy’s overall condition and is strongly tied to consumer expenditure. Moreover, the unemployment rate plays a pivotal role in influencing monetary policy, making it a vital factor for both policymakers and market participants.


In August, the U.S. unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, reflecting little change from the previous month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of unemployed people stood at 7.1 million, higher than the 6.3 million recorded a year ago when the jobless rate was 3.8%. Unemployment rates across major demographic groups, including adult men, women, teenagers, and racial and ethnic groups, showed little variation. Despite modest job gains in sectors like construction and health care, manufacturing saw a decline, and overall job growth slowed, with nonfarm payroll employment increasing by just 142,000.​

TL;DR

• U.S. unemployment rate: 4.2% in August, unchanged from the previous month.
• Number of unemployed people: 7.1 million, higher than the 6.3 million a year ago.
• Unemployment rate last year: 3.8% in August.
• Little variation in unemployment rates across major demographic groups (adult men, women, teenagers, racial and ethnic groups).
• Modest job gains in sectors like construction and health care.
• Decline in manufacturing sector jobs.
• Overall job growth slowed, with nonfarm payroll employment increasing by 142,000.

The Unemployment Rate is projected to be 4.3%, slightly higher than the previous figure of 4.2%.

The upcoming release of Average Hourly Earnings (m/m), Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate is set for Friday at 12:30 PM GMT.

​

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

9th October 2024

Wednesday​

On October 9th, New Zealand is set to announce its Official Cash Rate, a key indicator of the country's monetary policy and economic direction. Shortly after, the United States will release the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes, offering insights into the Federal Reserve's recent policy discussions and decisions. These events will be closely watched by global markets, as they provide critical updates on the monetary policies of two significant economies.

NZD - Official Cash Rate​

The Official Cash Rate (OCR) is the interest rate that banks use to borrow from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) overnight. When the OCR is higher than expected, it generally strengthens the currency, as short-term interest rates play a crucial role in determining currency value. Traders closely monitor this rate to anticipate future currency trends, often using other economic indicators to predict potential changes in interest rates. The OCR is determined by the RBNZ Governor, in collaboration with senior bank officials and external advisers.



The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 5.25%, marking its first rate cut in over four years amid cooling inflationary pressures. Consumer price inflation was expected to realign with the target range of 1 to 3% by the September quarter, and the decision reflected a broader trend of easing inflation across advanced economies as well as a downturn in imported inflation to pre-pandemic levels. The cut prompted a modest drop in the New Zealand dollar and led local banks, including Kiwibank and ASB, to reduce their lending rates. The Reserve Bank noted that future rate adjustments would depend on the consistency of pricing behavior and inflation expectations with its 2% target, suggesting the possibility of further cuts if economic indicators supported such a move.



The forecast for New Zealand's Official Cash Rate is 5.00%, down from the previous rate of 5.25%.



The Official Cash Rate is set to be announced on Wednesday at 1:00 AM GMT.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

10th October 2024

Thursday ​

On October 10, the United States is set to release key economic data, including the latest inflation figures and unemployment claims. These metrics are closely watched by economists, investors, and policymakers as they provide crucial insights into the health of the U.S. economy. The inflation report will shed light on price pressures and cost of living trends, while the unemployment claims data will offer an updated view of the labor market's strength, both of which are critical in shaping future monetary and fiscal policy decisions.

USD - Core CPI m/m​

The Core Consumer Price Index year-over-year measure indicates how the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers change, excluding volatile items like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco. This data is released monthly, roughly 16 days after the end of the month. Generally, if the 'Actual' figure exceeds the 'Forecast,' it is considered positive for the currency. However, in this context, Core CPI data has a relatively minor impact compared to other countries because the central bank primarily focuses on the overall CPI for its inflation target.

In August 2024, the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes the volatile categories of food and energy, increased by 0.3% from the previous month. This rise was slightly above the anticipated 0.2% increase and marked a slight acceleration from the 0.2% gain in July. The increase was primarily driven by a notable uptick in transportation services, which rose by 0.9% compared to 0.4% in July. Shelter costs continued to climb, rising by 0.5%, up from a 0.4% increase in the previous month, indicating sustained pressure in the housing market. Additionally, apparel prices rebounded by 0.3% after a decline of 0.4% in July. On an annual basis, core consumer prices grew by 3.2%, the slowest rate since April 2021, matching the annual increase in July and aligning with market forecasts. This steady year-over-year rise reflects ongoing inflationary pressures, though at a moderated pace compared to earlier in the inflationary cycle.

The forecast for Core CPI m/m stands at 0.1% compared to previous 0.3% outcome.

USD - CPI m/m​

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. Typically, if the 'actual' CPI exceeds the 'forecast,' it is considered beneficial for the currency. This is because consumer prices make up a significant portion of overall inflation. Inflation, in turn, plays a crucial role in currency valuation, as increasing prices often prompt the central bank to raise interest rates to control inflation. The CPI is derived by sampling the average prices of various goods and services and comparing them to the previous month's data.

In August 2024, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2% month-over-month, consistent with July's increase. The shelter index, up 0.5%, was the primary driver. Food prices edged up 0.1%, with a 0.3% rise in food away from home, while the energy index fell 0.8%. Excluding food and energy, the CPI rose 0.3%, driven by increases in shelter, airline fares, motor vehicle insurance, education, and apparel.

The forecast for the CPI month-over-month (m/m) is 0.2%, matching the previous result.

USD - CPI y/y​

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year (y/y) tracks the annual change in the cost of goods and services purchased by consumers. When the actual CPI is higher than expected, it is generally seen as favorable for the currency. This is because consumer prices make up a large part of overall inflation, which plays a key role in determining currency value. Rising inflation often leads central banks to increase interest rates to control it. The CPI is calculated by sampling the average prices of various goods and services and comparing them to previous data.

In August 2024, the US annual inflation rate slowed to 2.5%, the lowest since February 2021, down from 2.9% in July and below the forecast of 2.6%. This decline was driven by a 4.0% drop in energy costs, including a 10.3% fall in gasoline prices and a 12.1% decrease in fuel oil. Food prices rose by 2.1%, with increases in dining out and meat products. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, edged up to 3.2% from 3.1%, with shelter costs, which surged 5.2%, contributing significantly to this rise. Monthly CPI increased by 0.2%, matching July’s pace, with shelter costs being a primary driver. Core inflation for the month rose slightly to 0.3%, surpassing forecasts.

The CPI year-over-year forecast is expected to be 2.4%, down from the previous outcome of 2.5%.

USD - Unemployment Claims​

Unemployment claims measure the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time in the previous week. While typically considered a lagging indicator, this data is crucial for assessing economic health because consumer spending closely tracks labor market conditions.Moreover, unemployment figures significantly influence monetary policy decisions, making them pivotal for policymakers. Traders closely monitor these statistics, as actual numbers differing from forecasts can impact currency valuations—lower actual claims relative to forecasts are generally favorable for a currency's strength.

Unemployment claims in the US rose to 225,000 for the week ending September 28, slightly above market expectations of 220,000 and up from the previous week's revised 219,000. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.2%, while the 4-week moving average decreased slightly to 224,250. Additionally, seasonally adjusted insured unemployment fell by 1,000 to 1,826,000 for the week ending September 21.

The Unemployment Claims forecast is set at 231,000, with the previous figure being 225,000.

The upcoming U.S. inflation and Unemployment Claims data will be released on Thursday at 12:30 PM GMT.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

11th October

Friday​

GBP - GDP m/m​

Following the UK's GDP report, which showed no growth for the second consecutive month in July, the EUR/GBP pair reacted with a bullish movement. Opening at 0.84267, the pair steadily climbed throughout the day. Despite the flatlining economy, strength in the services sector and market expectations of unchanged interest rates helped maintain momentum. Later, the release of US inflation figures further influenced the EUR/GBP's rise, pushing the pair to a peak of 0.84635, resulting in a 36.8-pip gain since the initial news release.

CAD – Employment Change & Unemployment Rate​

In response to the latest employment announcement, the Canadian Dollar to Japanese Yen (CADJPY) exchange rate exhibited volatile trading behavior. At the moment the news was released, the currency pair opened at 106.112, quickly surging to a peak of 106.480, marking a bullish movement of 36.8 pips. However, this upward momentum was short-lived as the pair then reversed direction, descending sharply to a low of 104.660, translating to a significant drop of 182.0 pips. This sequence of movements underscores the market's mixed reactions to the nuances of Canada's current economic conditions.

USD - Core PPI m/m & PPI m/m​

Following the latest economic data release, the US500 experienced a significant volatility. Initially, the index opened at 5572.05 and dropped to a low of 5541.18, a decline of 3,087 ticks. This bearish movement likely stemmed from concerns over persistent inflation pressures and potential for the federal reserve to adopt a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts, as indicated by the 0.3% rise in core PPI and mixed signals from the job market. However, the sentiment shifted as the index rebounded to a peak of 5607.93, marking a 6,675 tick increase from its lowest point. This bullish turn reflects market expectations that the Fed might implement a more measured quarter-point interest rate cut, despite ongoing economic adjustments and resilient job market.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

15th October 2024

Tuesday

​

GBP - Claimant Count Change​

Following the announcement of the UK’s rising Claimant Count and the ongoing challenges in the labor market, the GBP/JPY currency pair experienced notable volatility. Initially, the pair opened at 187.153 and surged to a peak of 188.097, gaining 94.4 pips in a bullish movement. However, this was followed by a significant bearish reversal, with the pair plummeting to a low of 185.727, marking a sharp decline of 237.0 pips. This movement reflects the market’s mixed reaction to the concerning rise in unemployment benefits claims and the decline in job vacancies, underscoring the pressures on the UK economy and the uncertainty surrounding future economic stability.

CAD - CPI m/m, Median CPI y/y & Trimmed CPI y/y​

Following the August 2024 CPI announcement, the CADCHF currency pair initially experienced a bearish reaction, with the exchange rate dropping from 0.62144 to 0.62045—a decline of 9.9 pips within the first five minutes of the release. However, this downward movement was short-lived, as the pair reversed course and demonstrated a strong bullish trend throughout the remainder of the day. By the end of trading, the CADCHF had surged to a peak of 0.62326, marking a notable 28.1-pip gain from its earlier low.

NZD - CPI q/q​

Following the release of New Zealand's second-quarter CPI report, which showed a lower-than-expected increase, the financial markets responded with a noticeable bearish trend. Initially, the currency opened at 1.11263, but quickly fell to a low of 1.10725, a decline of 53.8 pips in the first two hours following the announcement. After reaching this low point, the market partially recovered, climbing back to 1.11062 within four hours, yet it still remained below the opening point by 33.7 pips. The announcement triggered a significant downward shift, underscoring the market's reaction. This decline illustrates how sensitive the market is to new information, as investors promptly adjusted their positions in response to the news.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

16th October 2024

Wednesday

​

GBP - CPI y/y​

The GBP/USD currency pair experienced significant volatility following the release of the UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year figures and the subsequent U.S. Federal Funds Rate announcement. At the time of the UK CPI release, the pair opened at 1.31575 and surged to a peak of 1.32540 within the first eight hours, marking a sharp 96.5-pip bullish movement. However, as anticipation grew ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate decision, the pair entered a bearish phase. Upon the release of the Fed's decision, the GBP/USD pair responded with renewed bullish momentum, climbing to a second peak of 1.32980—a 140.5-pip increase from its opening level. As the U.S. press conference commenced, the pair once again transitioned into a bearish trend.

 

[MiloPlexyTrade]

17th October

Thursday​

AUD - Employment Change & Unemployment Rate​

Following the release of Australia's August 2024 employment figures, the AUD/USD pair experienced a bullish surge. Opening at 0.67427 at the time of the news, the pair quickly gained momentum as the positive employment data, surpassing market expectations, boosted market confidence. Over the next nine hours, the currency pair climbed steadily, reaching a peak of 0.68391, marking a significant increase of 96.4 pips. This upward movement reflects optimism in the market, driven by robust job growth and a stable unemployment rate, signaling resilience in the Australian economy despite underlying challenges.

EUR - Main Refinancing Rate​

The EUR/USD pair saw a bullish movement following the European Central Bank's interest rate announcement, which reduced the deposit facility rate to 3.50% and lowered the main refinancing operations rate to 3.65%, effective from 18 September 2024. Opening at 1.10126, the Euro surged to a peak of 1.10751, achieving a 62.5-pip gain. This uptick was also fueled by U.S. economic data released shortly after, including Core PPI, PPI, and Unemployment Claims, which showed slightly higher inflationary pressures but a stable labor market. These combined factors contributed to the Euro's strong performance against the Dollar.

USD - Core Retail Sales m/m & Retail Sales m/m​

Following the release of the U.S. retail sales figures, the USDJPY pair exhibited a notable bullish movement. Opening at 140.746, the pair surged to a peak of 142.467 within eight hours, marking an impressive increase of 172.1 pips by the close of the trading day. This strong ascent highlights the market's positive reaction to the retail data, reflecting increased confidence in the U.S. economic outlook and its influence on the yen.

USD - Unemployment Claims​

The market experienced a significant bullish movement in the price of XAU/USD (Gold) following a key announcement at 12:30 GMT. Within a 5-minute volatility window, the market saw 2,303 ticks, with the price opening at 2612.14 and spiking to a high of 2624.05, after reaching a low of 2601.02. This movement suggests a strong bullish reaction to the news announcement, pushing the price sharply upward.