Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy

[Nigel Price]

Price has taken a turn to the upside and taken out my stop. Time to wait and see what the market's intentions are now. At the minute, it looks like it wants to move higher, and if it does, I will not try to stand in its way.

Should it roll over again, and establish itself back below the trendline, I will consider trying another short.

Can't ask for a better day's trading than today, as I got the opportunity to potentially profit a lot and in the end I paid nothing for that opportunity. If we keep working away on a similar basis, the odds will always swing in our favour at some point.

As an aside, Ronaldo won the Ballon d'Or last night. He sure as anything divides opinion, but you can't argue with his relentless determination to improve. I think we could learn a lot from his work ethic, whatever field we are involved in.

 

[Nigel Price]

Gonna take another rattle at this - in at 8293

 

[Nigel Price]

No stop set yet, but wouldn't want to be risking too much - 30 pips absolute max

 

[Nigel Price]

Stop just above the recent highs....

 

[Nigel Price]

On my chart that's 8015, if anyone is following

 

[Nigel Price]

sorry, that's 8315 - typing and trading isn't easy...

 

[Nigel Price]

came very close just there but not out yet! this is me finished for the day. if it gets stopped here, i will take the rest of the evening off

 

[Nigel Price]

knocked out..... -24 pips on the day, not too bad!

still think there is a good chance of this rolling over, lets wait to see what tomorrow brings.

hope this has been of some use, see you soon

 

[Aquarius]

GBPAUD short story: again bad risk management

Well, I had two trials to short the GBPAUD today. Lost a total of 90 pips on it. And I managed to try a third time at 1.8194 and ....... m o v e d my stop loss above Daily Supply to 1.8607. I promised myself this will be the last time I will do this wether or not this trade will turn out to be a loss or profit.
Also I missed the break and did not wait for price to reach my trendline to try a short. I did that way to early. But well, easy to say now
I have drawn my trendline a little different than Nigel and price is approaching it now. Well I am going to sit out this one....

While making the screenshots I saw my plan to short at 1.8400 . Bad executement of good plan?

 

[Aquarius]

knocked out..... -24 pips on the day, not too bad!

still think there is a good chance of this rolling over, lets wait to see what tomorrow brings.

hope this has been of some use, see you soon

Yes it is of use Nigel. Showing an expert trading his plan with losers sure is. It is a pity I can not follow your posts during my working hours. I really enjoy your postings. Keep them coming!

 

[Nigel Price]

Well, I had two trials to short the GBPAUD today. Lost a total of 90 pips on it.

That's not too bad Aquarius. Average of 45 pips per loser. Think about it - how many pips did the pair move yesterday? Nearly 300 or something? When one works out you will make that 90 pips back, no sweat. It is just a matter of controlling your losers until you do.

As I say over and over again, if you are in doubt, lower your position size. You should never be worrying that all your account will be gone and you won't have enough margin for another trade.

If anyone here is thinking along those lines, you NEED to reduce your position size, dramatically. Or if you are that uncomfortable, trade demo until you build up a few months of statistics from which you can then derive what your average strike rate is and so on.

A losing trade should never be more than a minor annoyance. If a couple of losers is causing you to become anxious, you need to reduce position size.

This goes for any trading strategy, not just PAST. You can never trade with a clear head if you are uncomfortable with the size of your position. And if you are not trading with a clear head, the market will find that weakness and exploit it. Sure as night follows day.

 

[foodaba]

STOP LOSS

Nigel first of all......THANKS for your kind help to all

your strategy has helped immensely in my trading approach...

1 quick question, do you move your stops as the trade progresses or

once you get to BE sit on your hands or go watch the teleee

 

[joadri]

Really appreciate these updates, thank you

 

[GRS]

Pin bar on USDCHF weekly at the top of a downward sloping trend channel.. sign that the bullish retrace is over and a good short entry?

 

[myknees]

That's not too bad Aquarius. Average of 45 pips per loser. Think about it - how many pips did the pair move yesterday? Nearly 300 or something? When one works out you will make that 90 pips back, no sweat. It is just a matter of controlling your losers until you do.

As I say over and over again, if you are in doubt, lower your position size. You should never be worrying that all your account will be gone and you won't have enough margin for another trade.

If anyone here is thinking along those lines, you NEED to reduce your position size, dramatically. Or if you are that uncomfortable, trade demo until you build up a few months of statistics from which you can then derive what your average strike rate is and so on.

A losing trade should never be more than a minor annoyance. If a couple of losers is causing you to become anxious, you need to reduce position size.

This goes for any trading strategy, not just PAST. You can never trade with a clear head if you are uncomfortable with the size of your position. And if you are not trading with a clear head, the market will find that weakness and exploit it. Sure as night follows day.

Excellent post - Thanks Nigel and welcome back - I took a bite at the DOW after seeing the PAST indicator show 2 long wick weeks in a row - Out for 40 points after 40 points stop and a move of 100 which sadly didnt materialise - Perhaps the next one will

 

[Aquarius]

Closed and open trades

Here is an overview of my closed and open trades of today. I think I am a bit overtrading. In a hurry to get in for a multiday multipips trade (M&M).
I am moving from 0.01 lot to 0.02 lot with the intention to close half at approximately 50 pips. Maybe I will open 2 x 0.01 because of trade management.
My stupid stop loss movement in GBPAUD ruins my profit at the moment. On the other hand it is fighting the 1.8400 level so lets see how it works out.
The other open trades are at BE+. I will try to let them run, but I find it hard not to trail (too close). I could not move GBPNZD to BE so it still has a 15 pips risk.

 

[Aquarius]

Trail or let it run?

Here is an example of one of my problems. I had a long in USDCAD. I decided to raise the stop after I moved it to BE before. Now the problem is: when to trail and when stick to BE?
Maybe that is why I want to trade "multiple positions in one trade" so I can play one with a target or trail. Does that make sense?

 

[Aquarius]

No trend to reverse?

Pin bar on USDCHF weekly at the top of a downward sloping trend channel.. sign that the bullish retrace is over and a good short entry?

There is a pinbar but rather small compared to the bull bar before. There was no real upswing before the pinbar formed so what is to reverse, although you are right about the trendline. Also the wicks on the bull bar and the three bars before could be a sign of a bottoming proces. There was no lower low for more than about 12 weeks. All this made me play USDCHF on the long side. Just my opinion though

 

[GRS]

what do you think of silver weekly Aquarius?

 

[GRS]

There is a pinbar but rather small compared to the bull bar before. There was no real upswing before the pinbar formed so what is to reverse, although you are right about the trendline. Also the wicks on the bull bar and the three bars before could be a sign of a bottoming proces. There was no lower low for more than about 12 weeks. All this made me play USDCHF on the long side. Just my opinion though

I'm having a shot at it, shorted from 9085. 15 pip stop.

update: moved to BE