Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy

khall1948

Trader
Nov 8, 2013
2
0
12
knocked out..... -24 pips on the day, not too bad!

still think there is a good chance of this rolling over, lets wait to see what tomorrow brings.

hope this has been of some use, see you soon :)

Hi Nigel. I find your blow by blow description very useful! More than anything else it tells us what you're thinking as you are watching price action unfold. Thanks very much!
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Nigel first of all......THANKS for your kind help to all

your strategy has helped immensely in my trading approach...

Delighted to hear that foodaba. I remember reading somewhere that it's like all traders almost have to go through a challenging period of time where they are figuring out their path. They might try a lot of different approaches and become frustrated along the way. But unbeknownst to them, they are learning a little bit more with each attempt and eventually, through hard work and persistence, they begin to see progress and the fruits of their effort start to develop.

When you think about it, it makes sense, because it's similar in almost all jobs/professions. The young potential star footballer still has to clean the senior team players' boots. The apprentice lawyer, who is already educated to a very high level, will still spend the first couple of years in their career photocopying, filing and doing other mundane tasks. The junior doctor works 100 hour weeks. The apprentice plumber will go to the shop to get the sausage rolls and make the tea. The junior banker will work all night and all weekend. Against that backdrop, it's not surprising that newbie traders often have to go through a bit of hard graft to earn their stripes.

It's most likely that a lot of the people who have read the PAST Strategy Ebook will give it a go for a while and then move on to something else. But as long as they have picked up something of use to their trading as they have read it, that's good enough for me. I would have my own ideals as to what most people will hopefully take away from it, but in the end, people will remember what they want to remember. :)


1 quick question, do you move your stops as the trade progresses or

once you get to BE sit on your hands or go watch the teleee;)

Good question foodbaba. I see it as my job to enter the market controlling my risk as tightly as possible, and then getting that risk off the table completely by bringing my stop to breakeven. Once I have done that, I have no power over what the market is going to do. It will either "pay out", and move into profit for me, or it will hit my stop. There's nothing I can do that is going to influence what is going to happen, so to say I go and watch the teleeeeee mightn't be too far off the mark!

In terms of trailing stops, I generally don't bother. I just check it every once and a while. There is an interesting observation that can be made here though in relation to trailing stops. One of the arguments you often hear from people is that they like to give a trade "room to breathe", i.e. they seem to be quite happy to allow a trade to move relatively far into losing territory before eventually, they hope, moving into profit.

But as soon as that trade does move into profit, those same people very quickly change their focus from breathing room to trailing tight stops or "protecting profit". Hang on a second, what happened to the "room to breathe" argument? The breathing room is very quickly cut off once the trade is showing a profit :D

I prefer to do the opposite. I do not tolerate any excess breathing room for a trade when it is playing with my money. That is to say, if I stand to incur an expense for this breathing room in the form of a loss to my account, errrr... no thanks. I will only allow the absolute minimum amount of air to stay alive. If, after the market has decided that the trade is to move into profit and I have my risk off the table, well the trade can have all of the breathing room it wants. As long as it's with the market's money, not on my tab! Nosireeeee!

Hope that helps. :D
 
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Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Here is an overview of my closed and open trades of today. I think I am a bit overtrading. In a hurry to get in for a multiday multipips trade (M&M:p).

The temptation to overtrade is something I think we all have to contend with!

When is overtrading not overtrading though?

Is it possible to overtrade when price is going in the direction you want it to go?

Or is it only possible to overtrade when price is moving against us?

hmmmmmmmmmmm........... :D
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Hi Nigel. I find your blow by blow description very useful! More than anything else it tells us what you're thinking as you are watching price action unfold. Thanks very much!

No worries khall1948 - i am glad you find it helpful and thanks for letting me know.

I think they are a lot more potentially helpful when the trades don't work out than when they do!

I'll try to make it a regular thing. Good luck!
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Just one last post before I go here - On GBPAUD.

I hope that everyone who has been trading it has listened to what the market has been saying. The week started out well, but the bulls have clearly and unambiguously taken total control. In fact they have shouted it at us, with large upside moves. We have no business trying to fight these moves, and the only way I would become interested again would be if we see another trendline break, which is looking unlikely now this week.

So we should have only taken a small loss on this pair this week. For me, it was 24 pips. Tiny risk put against huge potential reward. That is the name of the game.

All the best!

(P.S. Jon is raising money for the charity Hope for Children. A lot of the time us traders get accused that what we do has no social value (hey we're not exactly nurses but us retail guys aren't that bad! :D). I think it's a good idea to donate even a pip every now and again to a worthy cause - even if it's only to keep the karmabank topped up! Even just one £/€/$ would be greatly appreciated.Thanks to everyone who has already tossed a few sponds in the pot!)
 

Aquarius

Master Trader
Dec 30, 2013
44
0
52
Netherlands
About being right/wrong and stubbornness

Just one last post before I go here - On GBPAUD.

I hope that everyone who has been trading it has listened to what the market has been saying. ......
Well, not me:(:eek::mad:!!!
A few post back I wrote about my GBPAUD trade. I moved my stop to above H4 supply. Well, it got hit today. So I sat it out. But then, when I saw just a little hesitation I shorted it again. Now I kept my stop loss at about 20 pips or so. Again stopped out. Ok, then I think: "Now it is going south for sure". You see, I want it to go my way, I want to be right. Stupid me. So I have put in a sell stop just to not miss it. Ooh, I really have to learn to just enter a trade with a stop and leave it be.
For my own records and your pleasure I added the chart of these stupid trades.
 

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Aquarius

Master Trader
Dec 30, 2013
44
0
52
Netherlands
Trades stopped out "by the pip"

Some of my trades got stopped out today at BE+. You know, I find it hard to see profit deminish. But I think it is better (for me) to be stopped out at BE then BE + a little. Because it is even harder to see being stopped out at BE+ a little and then see price resume the original trade direction.
I will definitely try this multiposition trade with one taking some profit. Then I think it will be less hard to see the other being stopped out (at BE). At least then I might get something for my hard workof entering a trade :cool:

Two examples of today attached.

P.S. @GRS: My longs USDCHF got stopped out as you see, but price is making long wicks to the downside. Are the lower prices rejected?
 

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Aquarius

Master Trader
Dec 30, 2013
44
0
52
Netherlands
Thinking about Silver?

what do you think of silver weekly Aquarius?
On the monthly you can see it made a double bottom. I bet it will start an uptrend at first to about 25. Then it will retrace heavy to scare out some longs and then it will resume its uptrend to about 100. I could be wrong though :D:D

What do you think about silver? I am trying not to think anymore but just wait for PA signals. I would like to keep the thinking out of the game because when I expect something to happen I fall into the trap of wanting it to happen and trade according to that. See my GBPAUD trade as an example!

On the weekly: no sign for me to trade.
 

Aquarius

Master Trader
Dec 30, 2013
44
0
52
Netherlands
Plan not traded

Plan your trade trade you plan. Hm, I just got to make the second step:D
See the closed short and my plan in the chart.
 

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GRS

Trader
Oct 24, 2013
38
0
22
On the monthly you can see it made a double bottom. I bet it will start an uptrend at first to about 25. Then it will retrace heavy to scare out some longs and then it will resume its uptrend to about 100. I could be wrong though :D:D

What do you think about silver? I am trying not to think anymore but just wait for PA signals. I would like to keep the thinking out of the game because when I expect something to happen I fall into the trap of wanting it to happen and trade according to that. See my GBPAUD trade as an example!

On the weekly: no sign for me to trade.

I think, not ready yet, but very similar to the lead up to the big surge in aug 13. Similar lows and similar rejections. Maybe we'll get a similar reaction? I'd take a shot at it if we see something bullish breaking out of the range.
 

GRS

Trader
Oct 24, 2013
38
0
22
NZDUSD weekly pin (providing we don't move too much before today's close). maybe a retrace next week then a down trend?

Weekly pin is a rejection on a price area that previously was rejected with a decent 2 bar reversal.
 

Aquarius

Master Trader
Dec 30, 2013
44
0
52
Netherlands
Short already

NZDUSD weekly pin (providing we don't move too much before today's close). maybe a retrace next week then a down trend?

Weekly pin is a rejection on a price area that previously was rejected with a decent 2 bar reversal.
A pinbar on the Daily in that area was formed on Thuesday. I though it to be a bit weak though. This morning I saw a little bullish bar on H4 after a strong down bar. See vertical red line in chart. I decided to put in a sell stop just beneath. It got triggered. I have my stop at BE. Hope I will not get stopped out at some widening of the spread.
 

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Aquarius

Master Trader
Dec 30, 2013
44
0
52
Netherlands
Results and little change of entry plan

For those interested: in the pdf is my detailed statement.
The two "do not move your stop loss anymore" trades (-49,28), which I talked about before, account for 57% of my total losses of -86,8. Total wins were 59,99. Meanwhile I had eight losing trades without moving my stop:):D after my GBPAUD debacle.

According rules of PAST we wait for a trendline break or retrace to a trendline to enter a trade. On GBPAUD at the beginning of this week I had a different line than Nigel. Well, both were good of course. But that made me think. Nigel allways says we are risk managers. Trendlines can be drawn different. I see them now as an excuse to enter a trade. We just want to have some sort of trigger. Preferably one that gives us a slight chance of entering in the right direction of the next movement.

Well, I will be looking for PA on daily (and maybe H4) for my entries as well. I will call them signal candles. Candles that show that price is changing course (or better might change it course). When we manage our risk well, should we be so picky about our entry?

Also I intend to implement my 2 positions trades. One for letting it run or be stopped out at BE, the other for taking some pips to reward me for my entry work...
 

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Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Very encouraging results

For those interested: in the pdf is my detailed statement.
The two "do not move your stop loss anymore" trades (-49,28), which I talked about before, account for 57% of my total losses of -86,8. Total wins were 59,99. Meanwhile I had eight losing trades without moving my stop:):D after my GBPAUD debacle.

This looks very promising Aquarius. Even with the larger losers taken into account. I hope you can see what tweaks you have to make to swing things into profit. This is why I always beg people to study their statistics - the amount of knowledge you can gain from just looking back over your record is without equal in trading, if you ask me!

Anyway, I am sure you know what you have to do - keep some of the losers a bit smaller, and let those winners grow.

Looking at your stats, one other thing jumps out at me. You have quite a few trades there for two weeks trading, and they are spread over a lot of different pairs. While there is nothing necessarily wrong with that, you must remember to give your winners the time to grow and balance out those closed losers. Price doesn't move in a straight line, and you may find that some of those winners might be going for a few weeks. So be careful not to overwhelm yourself with trades. The beauty of this strategy is that once you have your stop at breakeven, who are free to go and do what you want. You can try and trade some more, or you can just relax and monitor the trade that you have open.

As I have said before, there is nothing better than having a breakeven trade open on a weekly swing and just checking it every now and again. I don't know about you, but I got into this game to get away from the screen, not to spend more time in front of it! So don't be afraid to take a few days break every now and again. Sometimes you will come back and your trades will be stopped out for no loss, but other times you will come back to a very nice surprise!

One final thing, and it is very important. You are now in the position where you have a clear idea of what you need to do to swing things into profit. And I am confident, once the market begins to reward your efforts and the profits begin to appear, you will know where they came from. That puts you ahead of 90% of the competition. It just becomes a matter of repeating it after that.

Excellent start to the year Aquarius, tip of the hat to you! :D
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
4
64
www.forexuseful.com
Happy Monday everyone!

Likely to be a quiet enough start to the week I'd imagine - not really any important data out, and the US is on holiday.

I went to see Wolf of Wall Street there over the weekend, anyone else seen it?

I have to say, what those guys were doing to small investors was awful, but what they got up to also makes for a very entertaining story, really really funny in parts. So I am sort of left in two minds about it!

If you want to see a similar film that does look at how those pump and dump scams affect the victims, I think Boiler Room is a really good watch too.

Have a great trading week! The report this week is looking at Silver, by the way. :D