Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy

[GRS]

Hope you don't mind me stealing your idea GRS

haha of course not. I'm looking at this as a potential break of an ascending triangle. there seems to be some well defined horizontal resistance around 20.45 and price is starting to compress up against it. It would be nice to see a false break down below support then back into the range before a convincing break up and away

 

[Nigel Price]

Quiet Start to the Week

Silver has taken a tumble today, but none of us should have been in any trade, because the trendline has not been breached. As I have said before, they are there for a reason!

The market is giving us the rest of the day, and maybe tomorrow too, off! So take advantage of it when it comes!

It's not the quantity of trades we should be looking at, but the quality. What is better - one precision trade during the week with a great chance at profit/small loss, or sitting for hours at the screen trying to squeeze out gains in a slow moving market?

I know which one I opt for!

We're snipers, not machine gunners. Save the ammo for when it will be of most use.

 

[GRS]

Silver looking bullish again, weekly is still higher lows and looks like we'll end the week with another pin.

 

[Nigel Price]

Silver looking bullish again, weekly is still higher lows and looks like we'll end the week with another pin.

Hey GRS, yes it seems to be taking its time to relax before it makes its next move.

Think our trendline should dictate the bias over the course of the next week or so.

We'll wait until it shows its hand

 

[Aquarius]

Some trades of this week

Well, did again a lot of trades to get into the market for a multiweek multipip trade. Here are three of my trades. One winner, two losers. I gave back some 85 pips on the winner. At first I did not feel good about it. But on second thoughts: it fits the plan to control risk and trail at a good distance above/beneath marketstructures to which price 'normally' (= in a good moving trend?) would not retrace.

 

[Aquarius]

Summary of this week

Here is a summary of my trades this week. Sorry, there was no time to post charts this week. As mentioned before I did a lot of trades this week.

Positive: I managed my risk well, I did not move my stop loss further away
Negative: well, it still doesn't 'feel good' to give away more then 50 pips. I did not trade multiple positions to take some pips on one positions and let the other run or let it stop out at BE as I planned too.

Waiting for MWMP (MultiWeek MultiPips) trades takes p a t i e n c e

 

[Aquarius]

Turn in markets?

Well, what to think (should I think?) of the long weekly down/up bars in some of the pairs? Do they mark a turn?
See for instance this chart of USDJPY. Wait for a pullback on H4 and then sell on a break of the pullback?

 

[GRS]

Nigel can you please go over how you enter on retests? Are you using limits or waiting for a rebreak? Some retests may be wicks so only reasonably triggered by a limit order (unless you're glued to the screen waiting for the rebreak). But then limit orders have their own issues
(eg limit orders will miss some winning trades but be triggered for every losing trade).

 

[Olu]

GbpJpy

Hi Nigel and all PAST traders

Just to say the gbpjpy trade possibility looks good. I was looking at it and saw a possible head and shoulder with some serious downside possibility. Please see chart. I like trades when there is a confluence of trade ideas pointing to the same trade and outcome. We'll see how this one plays out. Thanks Nigel for the writeup on it

Olu

 

[Nigel Price]

The PAST Strategy - Price Action Swing Trading

Happy Monday All!

Hope everyone had a nice weekend! I went to a gig on Saturday night and my ears are still ringing. A definitive sign of getting old!

GBP/JPY overshot the runway slightly this morning on the retest, but there was still ample opportunity to get involved there with a pretty tight stop. Even if it took a couple of attempts to get it right (like I took )

All in all I think GBP/JPY is in sell rallies mode now, unless the trendline is broken again to the upside.

Remember, we are coming off the back of a very heavy sell-off from last week, so it would be perfectly normal to see price consolidate around the trendline before moving on again. It's rarely all one-way traffic.

The report is here, in case anyone wants to take a look.

It's going to be a pretty interesting week for the markets - it seems like there is the potential for a bit of a perfect storm to brew. I think Janet Yellen might be about to get her initiation ceremony!

No taper - no credibility
Taper - EMs continue to bleed, and then you start getting banks going POP.

Stay nimble and control your risk!

 

[Nigel Price]

Opportunity to get in here in the 169.50-60's for anyone missed first time.

Don't want to see price break previous highs. These yen pairs move fast!

 

[Nigel Price]

in here and a stop at 80 would be nice .... 20 pips risk

 

[Nigel Price]

The bears gave it a good shot, but the bulls have pulled price up over the previous highs.

Standing aside now until I see more evidence that the bears are ready to take control.

-23 pips

 

[Nigel Price]

When you close a losing trade, if you find any of the following thoughts creeping into your mind -


- I must have drawn that line wrong

- Trendlines don't work

- Candles don't work

- My broker is trading against me

- Nigel is in the forex mafia and is out to scam me

- Everyone is in the forex mafia and is out to scam me

- I must try another system in a forum thread on another forum - this forum is cr*p

- You can't be profitable in trading

- Maybe if I add an oscillator and MACD I will be profitable

- If I had only had a bigger stop that trade could have been a winner

- I can't trade


you need to change your thought process.


If you find yourself thinking the following:

- Did I have a reason to get in the trade

- Did I know where I was going to get out of the trade

- Was my potential profit bigger than my potential loss

- Did I recognise when price was starting to move against me

- Did I take steps to minimise my risk

- Do I still have equity in my account to trade again

- Did I resist the urge to fight price

- Am I going to be patient and wait until price is moving in my direction again before I try again


then you are on the right track.

 

[Nigel Price]

Updated chart - watching orange line now. Would need to be below both for bears to be back in business. As I said earlier, the pair might need to consolidate losses for a while before figuring out where to go next.

 

[Aquarius]

Long CADJPY stopped out

On antipiciating a rebound from the downmove and break of downtrendline on H4 I entered a long on CADJPY. It was more than 40 pips in profit, but when I got home it was already stopped out. Risk was about 60 pips.

 

[Aquarius]

AUDUSD short stopped out for (little) profit

Got stopped out of a short AUDUSD which I opened the 22nd.
Well, again it raises the question what to do with (trailing) stop / take profit.
Again forgot to open multiple positions.
Also got stopped out of some losing trades GBPUSD and GBPCAD. Also a EURUSD sell got stopped out at BE.

 

[Aquarius]

Two long NZDJPY stopped out for BE

Two long NZDJPY trades got stopped out for BE. One was about 120 pips in profit I have the need to bank some pips
A short AUDJPY is 105 pips in profit now.....

 

[GRS]

hi aquarius. you may need to look at EITHER modifying your trading to be more in line with Nigel's; less trades, tighter stops, moving to BE sooner and looking for change of trend only (not a retrace of an established trend). Get your stop tight, then to BE, then relax over the free trade. No 60 pip stops.

OR modifying PAST to suit your trading. In which case it might be appropriate to take profit or partial profit more often if that is what works for you. If you're not buying into a weekly turning point, how far can the trade be realistically/historically expected to run? What do you believe is an appropriate target?

 

[Aquarius]

hi aquarius. you may need to look at EITHER modifying your trading to be more in line with Nigel's; less trades, tighter stops, moving to BE sooner and looking for change of trend only (not a retrace of an established trend). Get your stop tight, then to BE, then relax over the free trade. No 60 pip stops.

OR modifying PAST to suit your trading. In which case it might be appropriate to take profit or partial profit more often if that is what works for you. If you're not buying into a weekly turning point, how far can the trade be realistically/historically expected to run? What do you believe is an appropriate target?

Thanks GRS. I must admit I sometimes open trades from my mobile and that are not always the best trades.
I think PAST is a good strategy, but during the day I can not always follow the martket around H4 closings. And my mobile does not have the same charts! Also I would like to be able to catch up with a trend although it already 'left the starting point'.
So yes I am adapting PAST to suit my trading. I am still looking to find these MultiPips trades though. I think that the heart of PAST is minimize risk and let profits run. The break or retest of the trendline is an 'excuse' to get into a trade. So yes, maybe I am moving to use other 'excuses'. I hope I am still allowed to post my trades here.

I wonder if anyone else reading this forum is taking (demo)trades? I sure would like them to post them.